:00:02. > :00:12.link. Now it is time for Dateline London,
:00:12. > :00:26.
:00:26. > :00:30.Welcome to Dateline London. The Labour leader Ed Miliband, does he
:00:30. > :00:34.look like a Prime Minister in waiting? What does the shelling
:00:34. > :00:38.across the Turkish-Syrian border mean for the conflict? And Iran,
:00:38. > :00:42.potentially one of the richest countries in the world, in real
:00:42. > :00:48.difficulty of its currency. I am joined by Amir Taheri, Abdel Bari
:00:48. > :00:52.Atwan, Stryker McGuire and Tim Montgomerie. Good to see you.
:00:52. > :00:57.This weekend the British Conservative Party gathers for its
:00:57. > :01:01.annual conference, with one of the party's traditional selling points
:01:01. > :01:06.of competence somewhat undermined by a series of errors including the
:01:06. > :01:09.botched selling of rail franchises. After two years in the job, the
:01:09. > :01:14.Labour leader, Ed Miliband, who has so far failed to connect with many
:01:14. > :01:18.voters, he gave a speech this week and even his opponents could say
:01:18. > :01:23.that it showed a new confidence. Does it feel like a moment when the
:01:23. > :01:30.Labour leader suddenly looks like a possible Prime Minister, a turning
:01:30. > :01:35.point? Do you think Miliband did quite a surprising job this week?
:01:35. > :01:39.He did well. I think people exaggerated how good it was, but
:01:39. > :01:43.the key factor in British politics has been that since the formation
:01:43. > :01:46.of the coalition we have the left of British politics united, the
:01:46. > :01:52.people who normally support the Liberal Democrats of left-wing mind,
:01:52. > :01:56.they are now in the Labour column, and the rights of the Conservative
:01:56. > :02:00.Party is using support to the United Kingdom Independence Party,
:02:00. > :02:05.quite a Euro-sceptic party. In the Thatcher years, the Right was
:02:05. > :02:10.united and the left divided. Labour does not need to do very well in
:02:10. > :02:15.order to become Britain's next government. Ed Miliband was, in a
:02:15. > :02:19.sense, the Tories' secret weapon. We thought he would stop Labour
:02:19. > :02:23.achieving this, because his ratings had been so abysmal, but his
:02:23. > :02:25.performance this week at the Labour Party conference shows that he
:02:25. > :02:30.might cross the minimum threshold to make a Labour government
:02:30. > :02:35.possible. That makes it sound like a dog walking on two legs, it
:02:35. > :02:39.doesn't do it very well but she was surprised he does it at all, so he
:02:39. > :02:44.certainly did better? I think he might have resolved to the
:02:44. > :02:51.leadership question for a while. He was suspect for quite a long time.
:02:51. > :02:55.Now he seems less suspect. One reason he did not have a lot of
:02:55. > :02:59.very active, aggressive opposition from within his own party before
:02:59. > :03:03.was because there was some fear about how Labour would do in the
:03:03. > :03:08.next election, but now it is looking closer the next time around,
:03:08. > :03:12.do you think that, therefore, somebody might emerge to challenge
:03:12. > :03:17.him? I think he is safe. I think most Conservatives would prefer him
:03:17. > :03:23.to be saved, although he did well this week, 3% of the British people
:03:23. > :03:27.think he is strong, 4% think he is charismatic, 5% think he is a
:03:27. > :03:32.natural leader. Even if those ratings have doubled... And 95% of
:03:32. > :03:40.people did not watch the whole speech anyway. But got so pendants
:03:40. > :03:45.will be more positive. To be honest, I will be -- I was surprised. I
:03:45. > :03:49.think he did an extremely... Very good job, to be honest. He was very
:03:50. > :03:56.confident and I liked the way he presented himself, one nation. I
:03:56. > :04:01.love that, it is magic and I believe it will happen. A rare
:04:01. > :04:06.moment of agreement. It is fantastic. He is very promising. It
:04:06. > :04:13.is true, his rating, whether you can fit as a Prime Minister or not,
:04:13. > :04:19.is very low, 25% or something, but we have to remember that he has
:04:19. > :04:24.been in his job far only two years. And he probably has two-and-a-half
:04:24. > :04:28.years... Yes, and he can build on his success. He is young, fresh-
:04:28. > :04:34.faced, I think he will appeal to young people.
:04:34. > :04:38.This is another sign of the present short -- the presidential nature of
:04:38. > :04:42.British politics, which I do not think is good. This speech was good
:04:42. > :04:48.as a performance, but where is the beef? The Labour Party has no
:04:48. > :04:54.policies at all, it is just drifting along. I am not British,
:04:54. > :05:00.as an outsider when I follow British politics I see that Labour
:05:00. > :05:04.always had real political debate. But at the moment it is not. It is
:05:04. > :05:09.all formbook no substance. This is very bad. If the election will
:05:09. > :05:13.happen in two years, we need the opposition to have some concrete
:05:13. > :05:21.alternative to the present coalition so the British can choose
:05:21. > :05:28.on policies, not on whether he speaks well or not. For example,
:05:28. > :05:32.they have been some great operators, but they never win. As you head to
:05:32. > :05:37.the Conservative conference, the competence issue irritates a lot of
:05:37. > :05:40.Conservatives that I have spoken to. Correct me if I am wrong, but most
:05:40. > :05:44.Conservatives think that you might not like us but we can probably add
:05:44. > :05:49.up and get it to work. Suddenly that is not happening, that is
:05:49. > :05:54.quite surprising. Some ministers are doing very well, others are
:05:54. > :05:58.very inexperienced. We have a very centralised system, if you are out
:05:58. > :06:03.of power you have very little experience, and the Conservatives
:06:03. > :06:08.have been out of power for 13 years, just as Labour were for 18 years
:06:08. > :06:12.before that. In American or other systems you have mayors or
:06:12. > :06:18.governors helping you to form a competent administration. With
:06:18. > :06:20.executive power... Yes, and we do not have that. Yes, the coalition
:06:20. > :06:26.government is not performing as well as some people might have
:06:26. > :06:30.hoped, but the general issue is whether the British system, the
:06:30. > :06:37.Civil Service, the competence of ministers, is also quashed a ball.
:06:37. > :06:42.What do you think David Cameron has to do? -- whether it is also
:06:42. > :06:49.questionable. So MP boffin David Cameron is the safest of the
:06:49. > :06:55.leaders? -- has some people think David Cameron is? There is no
:06:55. > :07:02.alternative inside Parliament, I think... The Mayor of London, Boris
:07:02. > :07:07.Johnson! David Cameron needs to focus like a laser beam on the
:07:07. > :07:14.economy. Ed Miliband spoke well but came up with no solutions on the
:07:14. > :07:18.economy... You are expected to say that! I am often happy to give
:07:18. > :07:27.David Cameron epic when I do not think he is performing, but I think
:07:27. > :07:31.that Ed Miliband has no... He does not need one? He will at some point.
:07:31. > :07:38.At the moment he has no plans whatsoever for the British people.
:07:38. > :07:45.He has... He is 10% ahead in the opinion polls, Margaret Thatcher
:07:45. > :07:54.was 20% behind at this stage in her time. We could easily see the
:07:54. > :07:59.Labour leader -- the Labour leader a road as the economy gets better.
:07:59. > :08:06.But the coalition is not working. We can see the Liberal Democrats
:08:06. > :08:14.are not happy, people are deserting them. We have seen Nick Clegg
:08:15. > :08:20.apologising for the student fees. I believe the bad relationship... The
:08:20. > :08:24.coalition is not gelling as it should be, it will reflect badly on
:08:24. > :08:28.both parties. I think what the Government really needs is
:08:28. > :08:33.something they can't manufacture in the short term, good economic news.
:08:33. > :08:36.That has been a problem. I think they expected it by now, and it has
:08:36. > :08:40.not come. In the past few years, Turkey has
:08:40. > :08:45.at last emerged as his stable democracy able to play a bigger
:08:45. > :08:48.role in the Middle East. So how significant has this week been in
:08:48. > :08:52.terms of the future of the region, with the Turkish parliament making
:08:52. > :08:57.clear that Syrian shelling is unacceptable, adding to the
:08:57. > :09:03.pressure on the asset regime. This is a very serious moment in Turkey?
:09:03. > :09:07.It is a very difficult moment, there are clashes on the border. It
:09:07. > :09:13.seems the Syrians are provoking the Turkish government and they are
:09:13. > :09:20.looking for a regional war. They know the Turkish President has a
:09:20. > :09:24.lot to lose if a war broke in that part of the world. He is the 17th
:09:24. > :09:27.strongest economic power in the world, I was there that his party
:09:27. > :09:31.conference, he said in five years we will be Number Ten as the
:09:31. > :09:36.strongest power in the world. He has a lot to lose, but the Syrians
:09:36. > :09:41.have nothing to lose. President Assad is facing a huge war of
:09:41. > :09:45.attrition in his own country. And also the sanctions against Syria.
:09:45. > :09:52.The Turkish role in under minding aside's position is starting to
:09:53. > :09:58.bite, so I believe I sad is trying to drag Turkey into a role for --
:09:58. > :10:02.into a war. Turkey have turned their back to the Arab world, they
:10:02. > :10:07.don't want to go back, they don't want to lose their economic
:10:07. > :10:13.prosperity... Even though they are a big military power... Exactly,
:10:13. > :10:20.because the growth is 7%. They managed to repay their debts, which
:10:20. > :10:28.was about $35 billion, now it is only $1 billion. If Turkey is drag
:10:28. > :10:32.to a war, they lose everything. They are saying they are capable of
:10:32. > :10:37.defending their pride and their country, but the outcome would be a
:10:37. > :10:42.disaster for Turkey. He wanted a parliament, he got a mandate to
:10:42. > :10:46.fight the Syrians if necessary. The problem is whether he will do it.
:10:46. > :10:51.Personally, I believe he would not, he would lose a lot and President
:10:52. > :10:58.Assad has nothing to lose. I think it is another suicidal move on the
:10:58. > :11:04.part of President Assad. Although you might want to provoke Turkey
:11:04. > :11:13.into a war, in fact he is strengthening the hand of those in
:11:13. > :11:17.Turkey you will want Turkey to intervene in Syria. So far, Turkey
:11:17. > :11:23.is reluctant to become involved in this area. But when you are
:11:23. > :11:28.attacked on a daily basis, public opinion changes. If there is a
:11:28. > :11:32.clash, if the Syrian army is in a very poor shape, in fact they do
:11:32. > :11:37.not think it exists as an army any mall, it has become many different
:11:37. > :11:43.bands, it would not be in a position to resist Turkish
:11:43. > :11:49.intervention. This is a very long border, 822, it has, and Turkey
:11:49. > :11:57.could very easily create safe havens in Syria -- this is a very
:11:57. > :12:03.long border, 822 kilometres. It is a very bad move for the party of
:12:03. > :12:09.Bashar al-Assad. NATO could call and assistance from other NATO
:12:09. > :12:15.countries? Yes, all other members of NATO should come to its defence
:12:15. > :12:19.if any country is attacked by anyone else. So anyone who has any
:12:19. > :12:24.concern at this escalating with wants diplomacy to prevail. I think
:12:24. > :12:31.everybody is aware of the huge Kurdish dimension, which President
:12:31. > :12:36.Assad is deliberately trying to Stoke. To warm the Turkish regime
:12:36. > :12:40.that if they think it will be easy and one-way traffic, and that Syria
:12:40. > :12:45.would be in trouble, Syria is stent -- sending the message that they
:12:46. > :12:55.are trying to stabilise Turkey from inside as well. Syria is backed by
:12:55. > :13:00.Iran, Hezbollah, rush-hour -- rush- hour. We cannot see a serious
:13:00. > :13:06.attack from the Syrian side to the Turkish one. Until now it has been
:13:06. > :13:10.skirmishes, not something serious. But NATO is still involved in
:13:10. > :13:16.Afghanistan. We had a very good X - - bad experience in Iran, I don't
:13:16. > :13:19.think they will be trapped or stop Syria has always been an
:13:19. > :13:25.exceptional case since the Arab Spring began, it has always been
:13:25. > :13:30.different because of these reasons. It is not Tunisia. It is not even
:13:30. > :13:35.Egypt. Egypt was more easily solved. There are so many interconnecting
:13:35. > :13:45.issues here that it is not just about Syria. That is the big
:13:45. > :13:58.
:13:58. > :14:08.So it will start Blackrock Could economic pressure rather only
:14:08. > :14:11.
:14:11. > :14:19.set to force mean negotiation over a nuclear programme? They have not
:14:19. > :14:25.been major demonstrations for some time? We're starting again. They
:14:25. > :14:34.will continue after the presidential election in June. They
:14:34. > :14:42.are ready for the big fight that is coming. The three factions are
:14:42. > :14:52.fighting bitterly for power. The people of an and are beginning to
:14:52. > :14:56.
:14:56. > :15:03.move again. -- iRAN. Losing 40% of the value of your dollar since last
:15:03. > :15:10.year, that seriously undermines any government, does it not? We do not
:15:10. > :15:18.know how much of it is the result of sanctions and how much is
:15:18. > :15:26.deliberate government policy. Who has money in an? It is the
:15:26. > :15:34.government. -- Iran. Because the value of the dollar has risen,
:15:34. > :15:42.government debt has been cut in half. They are making the biggest
:15:42. > :15:51.amount of money in this situation. At the same time, because of cheap
:15:51. > :15:56.imports from China, most of industry disappear it. Wages are
:15:56. > :16:06.higher, but now because it is more expensive to buy Chinese products,
:16:06. > :16:11.
:16:11. > :16:16.they can make them themselves. It works both ways. Iran Is not like
:16:16. > :16:26.Saudi Arabia, dependent on oil. It is more complicated than that is
:16:26. > :16:35.another dimension in the power struggle. They could force him to
:16:35. > :16:39.resign before the end of his turn to humiliate him. There is a chance
:16:39. > :16:44.of putting one of his cronies as candidate in the next election in
:16:44. > :16:49.the hope he could come back. It is much more complicated than the
:16:49. > :16:56.nuclear issue would suggest. I am always aware that whenever we talk
:16:56. > :17:05.about Iranian politics, it is a house of mirrors, but how it is it
:17:05. > :17:15.seen in the rest of the region? Iran is overtaking Israel for many
:17:15. > :17:16.
:17:16. > :17:20.as the major enemy in the region. Two are up to what he said, they
:17:20. > :17:24.have been under sanction for the last five years or so sought the
:17:24. > :17:30.economy is starting to show the effects of this, it is
:17:30. > :17:38.understandable. A lot of the Iranian assets were sold, at around
:17:38. > :17:47.$5 billion. They are financing Hezbollah as well. There are three
:17:47. > :17:55.scenarios of this economic crisis. One is this the people rally around
:17:55. > :18:00.the Mullahs. The second scenario is that this kind of economic crisis
:18:00. > :18:07.will undermine the regime and we could witness a wave of
:18:07. > :18:12.demonstrations and protests. The third scenario is that if these
:18:12. > :18:17.economic sanctions start to bite into the government, the way
:18:17. > :18:22.forward for the government could be to ignite a war. A lot of Iranian
:18:22. > :18:27.officials said that if we realise that we're going to be attacked, we
:18:27. > :18:33.could take the initiative and attack the American bases in the
:18:33. > :18:40.Gulf. We do not know yet but if you corner a cat, it will defend itself.
:18:40. > :18:50.I am scared that this could ignite a war. You're shaking your head
:18:50. > :18:52.
:18:52. > :18:57.about the war there? I don't think Iran we'll do that. They have not
:18:57. > :19:07.attacked anyone for the last 400 years, they have always been the
:19:07. > :19:12.
:19:12. > :19:22.one's attacked. How is all up as a branch of the Iranian government. -
:19:22. > :19:23.
:19:23. > :19:33.- Hezbollah. In eastern Saudi Arabia and among the Shi'ite, this
:19:33. > :19:33.
:19:33. > :19:40.would be unpopular. President Obama has had an interesting week.
:19:40. > :19:50.Interesting! In the Chinese sense. Unemployment, good news. Debate,
:19:50. > :19:53.
:19:53. > :19:59.offal news. -- awful. Iran, Not quite clear, although for many,
:19:59. > :20:05.being patient is working. What is happening with and that it is that
:20:05. > :20:09.the sanctions seeming to date is probably good news for him. We have
:20:09. > :20:14.not Maxene many survey results since the debate. The very few,
:20:14. > :20:19.actually, that tell us about the effect of the debate on the
:20:19. > :20:26.American public. It is not yet clear what the impact was but Obama
:20:26. > :20:31.still looks pretty strong whiff he needs to look strong. It was a
:20:31. > :20:37.surprisingly dull performance from him. In a sense it was surprising,
:20:37. > :20:44.yes, because what we want to remember his Obama during the last
:20:44. > :20:50.campaign four years ago. We remember this Test -- this person
:20:50. > :20:56.with so much passion and conviction. We have not seen that guy in office.
:20:56. > :21:06.He was the future once. He has lacked passion and lacked
:21:06. > :21:07.
:21:07. > :21:12.conviction. He has been quite loyally. -- lawyerly. When Governor
:21:12. > :21:16.Romney was saying something you could see Obama nodding. In a
:21:16. > :21:22.debate on television, it is about soundbites and unfortunately he
:21:22. > :21:26.came across as not really entirely there. Up do you think it matters
:21:26. > :21:31.very much? It must have been great news for Governor Romney having
:21:32. > :21:36.been written off by some of his own side but the you think it matters?
:21:36. > :21:40.Nick Clegg took the nation by storm in the first election debate we
:21:40. > :21:45.ever had in British history but it was a bubble. By the time people
:21:45. > :21:50.voted, that's for rot had gone. What people want from these debates
:21:50. > :21:55.is the want to see the leaders making a big argument and looking
:21:55. > :22:00.like they have some passion. Mitt Romney probably hasn't got right
:22:00. > :22:06.back into the game but it has got a little bit more competitive. What
:22:06. > :22:10.he showed us that he wanted to be competitive. It looked like
:22:10. > :22:20.President Obama was taking things for granted. People never want to
:22:20. > :22:26.be taken for granted and that is the danger for him. It is one of
:22:26. > :22:32.three debates. It is only the first one. Obama usually with his
:22:32. > :22:37.experience would take the last round. That is how I see it.
:22:37. > :22:42.think he should have gone for a knockout in the first one. It is
:22:42. > :22:49.very easy to be in the opposition, usually. We know that Mitt Romney
:22:49. > :22:59.has a lot to lose after the sack up of the 47%, saying that these
:22:59. > :23:00.
:23:00. > :23:06.people do not pay taxes and so on. -- saga. Obama was very polite and
:23:06. > :23:12.not very vigorous and attacking Mitt Romney. As I said, it is very
:23:12. > :23:17.easy to be in the opposition and very easy to point out your
:23:18. > :23:20.opponents's mistakes and try to exploit it. I think the second than
:23:20. > :23:30.beef or debates will be a completely different story and we
:23:30. > :23:32.
:23:32. > :23:39.should wait for that. I think Obama will keep his position. We must
:23:39. > :23:43.remember George Bush looking at his watch during one debate. She just
:23:43. > :23:51.lectures people, he makes his speech. The best thing I heard
:23:51. > :24:00.about Obama was during the Democratic primaries. When there
:24:00. > :24:04.was a crisis, President Obama made his speech. He just made his speech.
:24:04. > :24:08.From British eyes, that is one of the floors of the American system.
:24:08. > :24:16.People talk about senatorial debates but they're just a series
:24:16. > :24:20.of speeches. The American Senate can be a very dull place. They make
:24:20. > :24:25.a speech and that the camera pulls back, it is really just like one
:24:25. > :24:35.person making a speech. Everybody else is at lunch. One thing that
:24:35. > :24:40.Mitt Romney did accomplish with that speech is he had had a lot of
:24:40. > :24:43.people in America, important conservative commentators and
:24:43. > :24:48.analysts and the conservative establishment, really wondering
:24:49. > :24:55.what had gone wrong with Mitt Romney. He has silenced them for at