:00:31. > :00:35.Welcome to Dateline London. After an election victory for Obama, he
:00:35. > :00:41.pledges the best is yet to come. China's leaders have been meeting
:00:41. > :00:47.to select their next leaders behind closed doors. We will talk about
:00:47. > :00:51.the future of the EU. To discuss this are Polly Toynbee of the
:00:51. > :00:55.Guardian news mother. A Abdel Bari Atwan of Al Quds al Arabia. The
:00:55. > :01:02.John Fisher Burns of the New York Times. -- Guardian newspaper. And
:01:02. > :01:06.also Polly Toynbee who is a writer. What will the result of the
:01:06. > :01:11.American presidential election that mean? What can President Obama
:01:11. > :01:17.deliver in the next four years given the difficulties? What of the
:01:17. > :01:21.Republican Party? What will it take for them to get the keys to 1,600
:01:21. > :01:30.Pennsylvania Avenue? What did you make of the election result and
:01:31. > :01:35.what happened to both men? There was a 2 million vote difference.
:01:35. > :01:42.That is a big difference. It was a convincing win. That is good for
:01:42. > :01:48.America and for the world. A contested victory would have been
:01:48. > :01:54.troublesome. We will see Obama, like all second-term presidents,
:01:54. > :01:59.relieved of the political pressures on him, some of them. But he faces
:01:59. > :02:05.the Congress which is set against him, least in the House of
:02:05. > :02:09.Representatives. There will be political strife in foreign affairs.
:02:09. > :02:13.Europe will breathe easier and much of the rest of the world,
:02:13. > :02:17.particularly on the issue of Oran. If from the had been elected, we
:02:17. > :02:23.would have seemed more aggressive American policy. -- Iran. That
:02:23. > :02:28.would have caused misgivings. Toynbee, what about those who did
:02:29. > :02:35.not vote for Romney. What did you make of the make-up of the vote for
:02:35. > :02:40.Obama? So sensible Republicans are looking and seeing the future does
:02:40. > :02:46.not look anything like their white middle-aged male vote they rely on.
:02:46. > :02:51.There is not enough to go round. It is going to be more Hispanic, it
:02:51. > :02:55.may mean they turn it to Bush, who would be a candidate who speaks
:02:55. > :03:00.fluent Spanish. Whether speaking the language means speaking the
:03:00. > :03:10.language of the actual people, I do not know. I think they need to go
:03:10. > :03:13.through the total rethink it took. I do not know if they are in the
:03:13. > :03:18.mood. It was encouraging the Republican leader of the House
:03:18. > :03:23.sounded as if he might be willing to have some compromise on the
:03:23. > :03:29.fiscal cliff that is coming up, the immediate crisis. I think if they
:03:29. > :03:34.are really obstructionist after a - - suit soon after the victory for -
:03:34. > :03:40.- so soon after the victory, they will do themselves harm. People can
:03:40. > :03:45.get into a rage. The tea party mood is so ferocious. I am not sure they
:03:45. > :03:51.can get that virus out of this system. Was it the right result for
:03:51. > :04:00.the Middle East? I believe Obama is facing four major issues. The first
:04:00. > :04:10.is sedan. Second, the Iranian nuclear ambition. Then the Israeli
:04:10. > :04:15.
:04:15. > :04:22.conflict. Then terrorism. -- Sudan. Since that, Obama has not got the
:04:22. > :04:27.stomach for war. He said in his speech the decade of war has ended.
:04:27. > :04:34.He also mentioned a very important point about the Middle East when he
:04:34. > :04:40.said we should free ourselves from the Independent on foreign oil. It
:04:40. > :04:47.seems he is looking towards the future. -- from being dependent on
:04:47. > :04:56.foreign oil. He gave a very strong ultimatum in his speech yesterday
:04:56. > :05:01.up to the Congress. I am going to put up taxes and you have to
:05:01. > :05:06.support me. If you do not support me, I will go ahead with it without
:05:06. > :05:11.your approval. I think in the coming four years, he will
:05:11. > :05:17.concentrate more on the economy, especially China. He will overtake
:05:17. > :05:26.-- China will overtake the US as the first economy. What about the
:05:26. > :05:32.relationship between China and America? Obama's re-election is a
:05:32. > :05:38.favoured option for China, not only because China knows Obama for the
:05:38. > :05:44.past four years but because there are or more conciliatory terms with
:05:44. > :05:53.foreign policy. The re-election represented a change we are seeing
:05:53. > :05:58.in America, with demographics. There will be more Hispanic votes.
:05:58. > :06:03.Also, the changing landscape internationally. I was disappointed
:06:03. > :06:09.in some way that foreign policy got very little air during the campaign.
:06:09. > :06:16.I hope Obama will have that second term mandate to be able to go
:06:16. > :06:23.further with it. That is going to change. China will move up in both
:06:23. > :06:29.economic and political positions as well. That will change the dynamics.
:06:29. > :06:34.It will be one of the major issues Obama will have to deal with in his
:06:34. > :06:38.next term as president. I think we need to be wary of the notion there
:06:38. > :06:46.is a shift going on in America as a result of the Democratic of which
:06:46. > :06:51.we spoke, increasing importance of the Hispanic and black vote.
:06:51. > :06:55.have seen before in my lifetime periods when people thought one
:06:55. > :07:02.party or other had established something which would last for a
:07:02. > :07:11.long time, that was the opinion through much of FDR's term in power.
:07:11. > :07:15.Then we had Eisenhower. Many things can change. The most important is
:07:15. > :07:23.if they do not sort out the economic problem, as they said in
:07:23. > :07:30.Clinton's time, the door might be open for the Republicans next time.
:07:30. > :07:35.America is divided now. The major issue which will face Obama, how do
:07:35. > :07:42.you bridge the gap between are the rich and the poor, the white and
:07:42. > :07:48.non-white? It is very important. America is getting less weight and
:07:48. > :07:52.younger. A -- less white. That is not for Obama to do. He said he
:07:52. > :07:57.wanted a coalition and it was impossible. The Republican party
:07:57. > :08:03.was too crazy and extreme. Now if he asked to pursue, as he is, taxes
:08:03. > :08:11.for the rich. Now it he has to pursue. It is for the Republicans
:08:11. > :08:16.to decide whether they will be less crazy. For their own survival, any
:08:16. > :08:20.healthy democracy needs at least two sensible parties. Does it worry
:08:20. > :08:27.you he might be more inward-looking and foreign policy will take a back
:08:27. > :08:32.seat? He does not have a choice. The US is pulled into everything.
:08:32. > :08:41.He will not be pulled into a wall. That is important. A decade of war
:08:41. > :08:47.is over is important. -- into war. He will not intervene in Syria.
:08:47. > :08:50.Lessons have been learned about staying well out of those
:08:50. > :08:53.situations. You might think one of the great
:08:53. > :09:02.accomplishments of Obama was to have got American troops out of
:09:02. > :09:06.Iraq and now have to be getting them out of Afghanistan. I did not
:09:06. > :09:12.get him the -- I did not get the impression that counted heavily in
:09:12. > :09:17.the election. You can understand why he has said the decade of war
:09:17. > :09:23.is over. But it seems to me that issue was overwhelmed by the
:09:23. > :09:28.domestic issues. I think foreign policy rarely blew
:09:28. > :09:35.strongly in elections. Be in the more recent years, American
:09:36. > :09:43.politics has turned inward. That is interesting. There is a major
:09:43. > :09:49.economic crisis for the American government. Similarly, we see
:09:49. > :09:54.Europe turning inward. From the foreign policy side of it, I am
:09:54. > :10:00.hoping the second term will make a difference, although I am not
:10:00. > :10:04.optimistic. A stronger President, is that what is hoped? If he
:10:04. > :10:09.concentrates on domestic issues, what does that mean for the rest of
:10:09. > :10:13.the world and the demographics and the geography of the rest of the
:10:13. > :10:18.world? It will be a disaster for the Middle East. In his first term,
:10:18. > :10:24.he pledged he will solve the Israeli conflict. He said he would
:10:24. > :10:32.enhance the two states solution. Suddenly he could not face that. He
:10:32. > :10:36.withdrew from the Middle East. In 2014, he will pull troops out from
:10:36. > :10:44.Afghanistan. It is too soon. He should play a major role in
:10:44. > :10:51.promoting peace in the Middle East. He should not just shrink and leave
:10:51. > :10:58.everything. They were behind the problems. They were behind the
:10:58. > :11:05.destruction of Libya. No peaceful solution in the Middle East. They
:11:05. > :11:12.cannot say, thank you, I want to concentrate on my domestic issue.
:11:12. > :11:16.They should not do that. We didn't mention China. As China's ruling
:11:16. > :11:26.Communist Party chooses a new leadership, what will the new line-
:11:26. > :11:27.
:11:27. > :11:31.up mean for the rest of the world? It is in some ways an election, but
:11:31. > :11:38.also selection. It is very important for China and also the
:11:38. > :11:46.world, not only because this group of leaders who will stay for the
:11:46. > :11:50.next 10 years, given the recent turmoil induced -- in Chinese
:11:50. > :11:55.politics, the struggles have been intense within the party. We will
:11:55. > :11:59.be looking at an interesting composition of the new committee
:11:59. > :12:07.which is presumed to be seven, rather than nine, members. That
:12:07. > :12:11.will be announced next Thursday. If you look at the 18th party congress,
:12:12. > :12:20.the tone has been conservative. Conservative in China means
:12:20. > :12:25.different things. You have the past president who rose to power being
:12:25. > :12:35.in a prominent position in the opening ceremony. They paid tribute
:12:35. > :12:41.
:12:41. > :12:47.to Mal. He pointed out one-party rule will stay and there will be no
:12:47. > :12:53.foreign Western-style democracy. There will be higher control,
:12:53. > :12:59.alongside pledging the Government will double the income of Chinese
:12:59. > :13:06.in the next 10 years. We are looking at a very interesting time
:13:06. > :13:11.and possibly, from the tone, a Conservative government. Given the
:13:11. > :13:19.language in the speech, what would you expect us to see different from
:13:19. > :13:22.China? If you take that language and read between the lines, as you
:13:22. > :13:28.know, the Chinese selection is unlike American politics, it is
:13:28. > :13:33.done behind doors. We do not know anything, we can only guess. If the
:13:33. > :13:40.Conservatives take majority, we will see tighter control, we will
:13:40. > :13:45.see less market opening up, we will see China as moving more towards a
:13:45. > :13:52.centrally controlled, a more regulated marketplace. That will
:13:52. > :13:56.have a major impact on how China will present itself as the next
:13:56. > :14:01.superpower. In economic relations with Europe. I absolutely. By the
:14:01. > :14:06.end of this year, China will be bigger economically than the
:14:06. > :14:12.eurozone. In four years, bigger than America. We have not begun...
:14:12. > :14:16.It has not entered into a political thinking, we do not know what it
:14:16. > :14:23.means. We are transfixed by. Doubling the income at a time when
:14:23. > :14:28.we are all in desperate straits, that is unthinkable. We look at it
:14:28. > :14:34.and we put it away because we do not know where to place it. I think
:14:34. > :14:39.over the next 10 years, we will have found a different way of being
:14:39. > :14:45.with China and it will have entered our politics. So far, it just sits
:14:45. > :14:50.there as an unknown. Do you think we underestimated? Yes. We're look
:14:51. > :15:00.at China from the eyes of the West. What the West wants from China. It
:15:01. > :15:01.
:15:01. > :15:07.is working for China! Be used to beat number six. After 10 years, it
:15:07. > :15:15.is number two. It will then be number one. It is going up. It is
:15:15. > :15:20.working. We cannot apply the Western system everywhere in the
:15:20. > :15:27.world. People now, the middle class, they are enjoying prosperity. They
:15:27. > :15:34.want to have a say in how they are rolled a how their country is ruled.
:15:34. > :15:39.Their human rights are not rosy in China. But look at the other side.
:15:39. > :15:43.It is a prosperous country. China is emerging as a superpower. Look
:15:43. > :15:48.at the situation in Syria. They have said to America, enough is
:15:48. > :15:52.enough. For the first time, they have used the veto twice in the
:15:52. > :16:02.United Nations Security Council. They have said, we are here and we
:16:02. > :16:09.
:16:10. > :16:15.are a superpower. They will be a A coincidence the leader of America
:16:15. > :16:20.and China chose a at the same time. Was on his entirely transparent and
:16:20. > :16:25.yet catastrophic in the same way, with its balances system producing
:16:25. > :16:31.a blockage in America. The Chinese constitution is utterly opaque, we
:16:31. > :16:36.do not know what happens, people just emerge. And it leaves us
:16:36. > :16:40.transfixed by, what would be the perfect democracy? We do not know.
:16:40. > :16:47.But maybe in 10 years, we will see if China get through without
:16:47. > :16:53.another revolution. I spent a few years in China and Mao and saw the
:16:53. > :16:57.transition to Deng Xiaoping and it is glorious to get which. That was
:16:57. > :17:02.his call. And they have got relatively rich and tens of
:17:02. > :17:08.millions have been moved out of poverty, but many large numbers
:17:08. > :17:13.remain in poverty. The conversation is overlooking the potential for
:17:13. > :17:17.serious internal disturbance, if not upheaval, in China. That is
:17:17. > :17:23.from the disaffected and from the failure in the leadership now since
:17:24. > :17:29.the time of Mao to make serious political reforms. To give you won
:17:30. > :17:32.example, we know from recent reporting that it is likely some
:17:32. > :17:41.members of the Chinese party leadership had seen their families
:17:41. > :17:47.acquire wealth of unimaginable proportions -- proportions,
:17:47. > :17:51.billions of dollars. That cannot stand. And anybody that nosed
:17:51. > :17:56.Chinese history knows it has been moved by peasant rebellions. --
:17:56. > :18:02.that knows Chinese history. Unless this leadership does something to
:18:02. > :18:10.open up and to become accountable, to deal with the serious social
:18:10. > :18:15.problems, I think China may become destroyed from within, and that
:18:15. > :18:18.would not be good for us, and unstable China. Nor for China's
:18:18. > :18:23.immediate neighbours like India that have border disputes with
:18:23. > :18:28.China and with Japan over the islands. So it is too soon to
:18:28. > :18:37.assume China will emerge from this 10 years of leadership triumph at.
:18:37. > :18:42.I agree. -- triumphant. It is not only the social problem. The is it
:18:42. > :18:48.sustainable to grow double digits for another 10 years? -- Is it. In
:18:48. > :18:55.the speech of Hu Jintao at the opening ceremony, he did stress a
:18:55. > :19:01.great deal about how the party must stand down -- stamp down on
:19:01. > :19:08.corruption. But can a one-party rule system that created this kind
:19:08. > :19:13.of corruption that modify itself and correct that? For the ordinary
:19:13. > :19:17.Chinese, it was a surprise not that for the elite group had accumulated
:19:17. > :19:27.vast amounts of wealth, the surprise was how fast that amount
:19:27. > :19:32.
:19:32. > :19:36.was! -- vast. Is a peasant revolt a possibility? Or is the fear of
:19:36. > :19:42.revolution that too many people have too much to lose, was it a
:19:42. > :19:47.real threat? I think that revolt is possible but I do not see that as
:19:47. > :19:52.the scale of revolution. That could be the reason behind the
:19:52. > :19:57.Conservatives taking control, because it is becoming unstable, so
:19:57. > :20:01.they go back to what worked before, that we have tighter control.
:20:01. > :20:05.the leadership aware of the possibility? Absolutely, in China
:20:05. > :20:10.every week, they compile information from the internet and
:20:10. > :20:14.print it out and everybody reads about it. A in the New York Times,
:20:14. > :20:20.a colleague reported that one of the families of the Chinese leaders
:20:20. > :20:24.had accumulated some think in there order of $2 billion of assets. The
:20:24. > :20:34.New York Times suddenly became inaccessible on the internet in
:20:34. > :20:36.
:20:36. > :20:41.China! But millions read that article. What is the potential for
:20:41. > :20:44.seismic change in China? Maybe over the next decade, because of these
:20:44. > :20:50.things coming together. Particularly people coming out and
:20:50. > :20:55.saying, we have had enough. China, the reform the Chinese
:20:56. > :21:01.government is talking about is a different kind of reform, they are
:21:01. > :21:04.talking about reform within the party and they must address that.
:21:04. > :21:09.Internationally, I see China changing its position, because in
:21:09. > :21:14.the past, although China was growing very fast, it was mostly
:21:14. > :21:20.economic power. And you see that changing already and it will change
:21:20. > :21:25.in the next 10 years. This leadership will certainly flex more
:21:25. > :21:33.muscle when they have that kind of economic and political power.
:21:33. > :21:37.the speech of Hu Jintao, he detected the resentment among the
:21:38. > :21:42.peasants when he said people should declare their assets. And he said,
:21:42. > :21:47.we should concentrate on consumption, not on investment and
:21:47. > :21:53.exports, we should look at the people and make their life better.
:21:53. > :21:58.Look at what happened to Japan, it has had 15, 20 years of * Assist
:21:58. > :22:03.economically. I remember the projections made about political
:22:03. > :22:09.power, the world dominance that would ensue from Japan's rapid rise,
:22:09. > :22:13.when I was still a young man. It did not happen, and part of the
:22:13. > :22:17.reason was they did not reform their economies and shift to an
:22:17. > :22:22.economy that rested on domestic consumption, and I do not see much
:22:22. > :22:26.sign the Chinese leadership in tents or can do that. We are going
:22:26. > :22:31.to read that and will probably come back to it after the leadership has
:22:31. > :22:34.been selected -- we are going to leave that. So more money problems
:22:34. > :22:38.in Europe, this time it is the budget, with the talks collapsing
:22:38. > :22:42.and the UK saying it will use its veto. A summit aimed at reaching a
:22:42. > :22:52.deal on the budget will be held on 22nd and 23rd November, if it goes
:22:52. > :22:52.
:22:52. > :22:56.ahead. What do you make of this? The E E you are asking for more
:22:56. > :23:04.money from countries at a time when countries are struggling to pay off
:23:04. > :23:08.their debts. -- the EU. They are asking for 7% more and it will be a
:23:08. > :23:12.difficult task when you look at what is happening in Greece, Spain,
:23:12. > :23:17.Italy, we are all under tight austerity and the idea that the
:23:17. > :23:21.budget should expand without reforming itself very much. It has
:23:21. > :23:25.reformed slowly the Common Agricultural Policy, it is a
:23:25. > :23:29.monstrosity but has got marginally better, but in this country, the
:23:29. > :23:34.money goes mostly to the Queen and the big landowners, not small
:23:34. > :23:37.farmers to keep them in business. All sorts of things are desperately
:23:37. > :23:43.wrong. He think, why does the parliament travel between
:23:43. > :23:47.Strasbourg and Brussels at vast expanse? -- vast expanse? Just
:23:47. > :23:52.because at the French will not agree to leave Parliament where it
:23:52. > :23:56.is. There are problems there are very expensive so it is difficult
:23:56. > :24:01.to persuade people who do not have money that they should spend more.
:24:01. > :24:06.I do not think the British will be flexible on this. But if David
:24:06. > :24:15.Cameron, if he gets a freeze, he will be low-key, but he will not
:24:15. > :24:21.get a freeze. -- he will be lucky. He might get a face-saving
:24:21. > :24:26.concession. He has a serious problem within his party and I dare
:24:26. > :24:35.say from the opinion polls at with the country in. If he were to
:24:35. > :24:45.retreat from the demand for an effective freeze on the budget, he
:24:45. > :24:47.
:24:47. > :24:51.would find people like you kick advancing on him -- UKIP. He need
:24:51. > :24:56.European Reform and I think this is a red line he will not allowed to
:24:56. > :25:00.be crossed. He will stand firm and I guess a other European leaders
:25:00. > :25:06.will face Wigan that own a lecherous some resistance to this.
:25:06. > :25:12.France and Italy and Spain, certainly. It seems ludicrous.
:25:13. > :25:16.we do seem to be on our own at the moment. It seems ludicrous when
:25:16. > :25:24.austerity is the order of the day, tens of millions are unemployed
:25:24. > :25:29.across Europe, to be talking about 7% increase. So much of that money,
:25:29. > :25:35.although the inefficiencies remain, some of that money is about trying
:25:35. > :25:41.to counter austerity and to use it for investments. Which some people
:25:41. > :25:45.think it's the right thing to do. It would be a lot more palatable if
:25:45. > :25:50.we saw the leaders of the European Union of saying, particularly the
:25:50. > :25:56.commission, saying, we are going to make a good effort to eliminate
:25:56. > :26:04.luxury, no more fice court -- five- course lunches, an end to this
:26:04. > :26:10.commuting and billion-dollar buildings. As a model, do you think
:26:10. > :26:14.the European Union it works? It is struggling. Maybe 10 years ago, I
:26:14. > :26:19.said it was perfect and everybody would like to join it. Turkey is
:26:19. > :26:25.struggling to do so and upset because it was left out. But
:26:25. > :26:33.nowadays, it is not the bright model people fought. For example,
:26:33. > :26:39.growth in Turkey is about 7.5% while Greece is bankrupt, its
:26:39. > :26:44.neighbour. The same thing in Spain and Italy and in Ireland. So it is
:26:44. > :26:52.not. And David Cameron has very few friends in Europe. And he is trying
:26:52. > :26:57.to say, here I am, please talk to me. I think his tactic is worthless
:26:57. > :27:02.and it is not working. We have discussed China and America and a
:27:02. > :27:05.marriage -- and Europe. Thank you for joining us, we look forward to