:00:02. > :00:12.meningitis B each year and one in 10 of them die.
:00:12. > :00:31.
:00:31. > :00:40.Welcome to Dateline London. The Middle East conflict leads to more
:00:40. > :00:50.deaths. How far have both sides still to come to terms with the
:00:50. > :00:54.politics of the Middle East? My Guest Sidot of Marc Roche, Ashis
:00:54. > :01:00.Ray of the Times of India, Nesrine Malik, the Sudanese writer and
:01:00. > :01:03.Michael White. The question of who started it energises bedside of the
:01:04. > :01:07.Middle East conflict. With civilians being killed on both
:01:07. > :01:12.sides and Israelis and Palestinians apparently locked inside another
:01:12. > :01:16.cycle of violence the big question is can anything be done to bring
:01:16. > :01:20.the conflict to an end? With huge changes taking place on Israel's
:01:20. > :01:26.borders, in Egypt and Syria for example, what difference does it
:01:26. > :01:31.make? On the timing of this, why now? It is obvious. There is an
:01:31. > :01:34.election coming up in January. This is not an unusual thing to see an
:01:34. > :01:37.incumbent Israeli government launching attacks on Gaza or
:01:37. > :01:42.Palestinians in general to strengthen their position. It is
:01:42. > :01:52.not a cynical today. All mainstream, trade says there's that the
:01:52. > :01:58.
:01:58. > :02:02.elections are driving this attack. -- all mainstream commentary says.
:02:02. > :02:05.This is not a new thing. We have seen it happen over the past 60
:02:05. > :02:09.years in Israel. The Israeli government position is that it is a
:02:09. > :02:17.security matter and a question of rockets being fired and we had to
:02:17. > :02:21.act and we always reserve the right to act. That is their position.
:02:21. > :02:27.They obviously have to say that. But over the past two days, there
:02:27. > :02:32.have been verified reports that there was a peace agreement, a
:02:32. > :02:40.draft peace agreement, that was very close to being signed with the
:02:40. > :02:43.Hamas leader who was assassinated. A member of the Israeli negotiating
:02:44. > :02:49.party that secured the release of the Israeli prisoner that was held
:02:49. > :02:54.by Hamas few years ago was a go- between and confirmed that they
:02:54. > :02:58.morning he was assassinated there was a draft peace agreement being
:02:58. > :03:04.discussed. Exposes the Israeli government's position as completely
:03:04. > :03:09.false. Whatever the result this and people can go back years, -- the
:03:09. > :03:18.roots. Is there any way of getting out of it? The mobilisation of
:03:18. > :03:23.troops, some suggest there will be a blockade of Gaza, maybe even on
:03:23. > :03:28.the side of Sinai which could produce complete with Egypt.
:03:28. > :03:38.once Europe is really in the back seat of this because the power is
:03:38. > :03:39.
:03:39. > :03:49.with America and President Obama being re-elected, not having to
:03:49. > :03:54.
:03:54. > :04:02.preserve Jewish votes... We have been obsessed at the moment with
:04:02. > :04:10.Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria. Libya as well. We forgot that at the core of
:04:10. > :04:13.the problem is the Palestinian problem. Since Bush senior and
:04:14. > :04:20.James Baker were the only ones who really tried to have moved the
:04:20. > :04:25.system, he has the solution in his hands. To go back to Nesrine
:04:25. > :04:35.Malik's., nothing politically is likely to happen until we know the
:04:35. > :04:36.
:04:36. > :04:40.new leadership of Israel. It does not matter. Because of the help the
:04:40. > :04:49.US is giving to Egypt and Israel, they are the only ones who can
:04:49. > :04:54.force, especially if Binjamin Netanyahu... He has quite a lot of
:04:54. > :04:58.power to force the Israelis and the Egyptians to put pressure on Hamas.
:04:58. > :05:04.Looking on it another way, Michael White, the question of Iran is the
:05:04. > :05:07.big foreign policy question for the United States. The really big
:05:07. > :05:14.problem for Obama is what to do about Iran and had to keep Israel
:05:14. > :05:21.on side. A it is a basic rule of Orphir. You do not open their war
:05:21. > :05:28.on two friends when you do not have to -- a basic rule of warfare.
:05:28. > :05:32.Personally, I do not believe that they will make a strike on around.
:05:32. > :05:39.Nesrine Malik is right about the election being a driving force. It
:05:39. > :05:44.has a destructive design of democracy, a proportional system
:05:44. > :05:51.allows minor parties to dictate in Israel. Binjamin Netanyahu back to
:05:51. > :06:01.the wrong side. Lleyton the, it was both improper and foolish because
:06:01. > :06:07.
:06:07. > :06:17.Mitt Romney was always going to lose -- blatantly. Eisenhower was
:06:17. > :06:23.the last one to do it and he was an even more serious general than now.
:06:23. > :06:26.Hamas has the advantage it things because of the Arab Spring. It is
:06:26. > :06:33.showing muscle. You cannot deny the Israelis the fact that a lot of
:06:33. > :06:36.rockets have gone over from Gaza and maybe they were keeping a hot
:06:36. > :06:44.heads in control and maybe he was punished. They do take a lot of
:06:44. > :06:51.rockets and we must not forget it. That is certainly true. But as you
:06:51. > :06:56.said, the political geometry of the Middle East is also important. From
:06:56. > :07:00.the Israeli perspective, things perhaps can only get worse.
:07:00. > :07:06.Absolutely. The potential of this conflict spreading out beyond the
:07:06. > :07:11.immediate region of Israel and Palestine is greater than what it
:07:11. > :07:16.was even a year ago. That is because of the new ground realities.
:07:16. > :07:24.There is one situation which has I think coming back to any time and
:07:24. > :07:28.time again. The United States exercised a certain restraint on a
:07:28. > :07:33.country like Egypt. Today you have a democratically elected government
:07:33. > :07:39.in Egypt. That same restraint may not be there. There is also the
:07:39. > :07:45.people's view in Egypt which may come into play. There is also,
:07:45. > :07:49.maybe not so strong a link, but a historical link between Hamas and
:07:49. > :07:55.the Muslim Brotherhood. What happens in terms of this spillover
:07:55. > :07:59.is I think a very disturbing prospect. That is true but it is
:08:00. > :08:05.also true that there has been no restraint on Israeli settlements
:08:05. > :08:11.being built on the West Bank according to the Palestinian people.
:08:11. > :08:15.It is hardly surprising, they would say, that the rockets are being
:08:15. > :08:22.fired. Rockets are being fired by both sides. The difference is this.
:08:22. > :08:31.It is an uneven battle. You have got Rochus on one side which a
:08:31. > :08:36.short range -- you have got rockets. They are not really ones which
:08:36. > :08:41.would go deeper or be more effective. The kind of Rochus
:08:41. > :08:46.Israel is able to produce and launched... -- the kind of rockets.
:08:46. > :08:52.But the political realities have changed. Hamas possibly has more
:08:52. > :08:55.allies than it did a year ago. That makes a difference. I disagree with
:08:55. > :08:59.this. The past few days, people have been saying that the political
:08:59. > :09:03.terrain has changed, there are new democratic governments in the
:09:03. > :09:07.Middle East that are going to represent the will of the people. I
:09:07. > :09:13.think it is actually far less promising. These governments are
:09:13. > :09:16.still quite constrained by their desires, especially the Muslim
:09:16. > :09:20.Brotherhood, their desire to appear responsible and mature politicians
:09:20. > :09:24.to the west. They need to act in a restrained fashion. Egypt in
:09:24. > :09:29.particular has a peace treaty with Israel that it cannot just rip up.
:09:29. > :09:37.Ultimately, these are not countries that can go to war with Israel.
:09:37. > :09:40.Why? It is a zero sum game. They would be annihilated. What has
:09:41. > :09:46.happened over the past couple of days is a lot of moral support and
:09:46. > :09:49.a lot of grandstanding and soundbites and images of the
:09:49. > :09:54.Egyptian Prime Minister carrying children into the hospital's in
:09:54. > :09:58.Gaza. But in terms of actual physical tangible help, Arab
:09:58. > :10:04.governments can do very little. There is another dimension which is
:10:04. > :10:09.important. It is a proxy war between Israel and Iran. Iran is a
:10:09. > :10:16.massively putting arms into Gaza and the Israelis are afraid that
:10:16. > :10:22.some of the arms could reach the urban centres. It is very important.
:10:22. > :10:26.You cannot deny there are victims on both sides. The Israelis have
:10:26. > :10:31.also a right to defend themselves. Very briefly, can you just do a
:10:31. > :10:35.brief numbers. Over the past 11 months, before the Israelis began
:10:35. > :10:41.their attacks on Gaza a few days ago with the assassination, there
:10:41. > :10:46.were 76 deaths in Gaza and about 200 injuries and zero deaths in
:10:46. > :10:50.Israel. The first deaths happened after the assassination. That is
:10:50. > :10:59.irrelevant. You are putting deaths on one side... That is
:10:59. > :11:04.regrettable... It is entirely relevant. There is a disparity.
:11:04. > :11:08.What does it mean for the wider conflict? It means that Israel is
:11:08. > :11:14.not being provoked into attacking Gaza. There is a this
:11:14. > :11:21.proportionality of power and an over-reaction. I feel sorry and
:11:21. > :11:28.cross with both sides. Hamas has broken with the Assad regime in
:11:28. > :11:37.Syria. This has all taken the heat off the Assad regime. The other
:11:37. > :11:42.question to which I do not know the answer is that Turkey is in play
:11:42. > :11:50.with a moderate Islamist government and a turkey is a serious military
:11:50. > :11:56.force by any one's test. I do not know what it means but I mention it.
:11:56. > :12:01.I do believe that as a national government, the Israeli government
:12:01. > :12:07.has an international responsibility. The responsibility has to be
:12:07. > :12:11.exercised. More than what Hamas has. I am not an apologist for Hamas but
:12:11. > :12:15.one gets the impression that Binyamin Netanyahu has been itching
:12:15. > :12:19.for i if fight for quite some time. He was restrained on the round. He
:12:19. > :12:25.did not get the US President he wanted. Now this is an opportunity
:12:25. > :12:28.before the general elections... He was restrained on Iran.
:12:28. > :12:33.By-elections usually result and a bit of a slap for the government of
:12:33. > :12:37.the day. This week's results might not be entirely surprising but with
:12:37. > :12:41.productions from the Bank of England of more rough times ahead
:12:41. > :12:49.plus deep unease in the Conservative Party over Europe, how
:12:49. > :12:54.much trouble is David Cameron in? - - projections from the Bank of
:12:54. > :12:58.England. Compared to what we have been talking about, not very much.
:12:58. > :13:06.Cameron is doing badly on these and other fronts. He got a pasting in
:13:06. > :13:11.the by-elections and the elections we have had, foreign audiences may
:13:11. > :13:16.not know this, but are the police commissioners. Only 15% turnout.
:13:16. > :13:23.Deeply embarrassing. Those who did turn out said, people fought for
:13:23. > :13:26.democracy, our duty is to vote. This is what happens in mid-term. I
:13:26. > :13:31.could flip the argument and say the Labour opposition ought to be far
:13:32. > :13:36.more ahead of the government at this stage in the political cycle.
:13:36. > :13:42.20% knocked 10%. The government has had a bad week but the opposition
:13:42. > :13:46.has not had a good week -- 20% not 10%. Considering where we all are
:13:46. > :13:51.with the eurozone, it could be a lot worse for Cameron. Would you
:13:51. > :13:54.can see there is a lot of unease in the Conservative Party? We have a
:13:54. > :13:58.big European summit this week by David Cameron's leadership, some
:13:58. > :14:03.people would say, it is again on the line. What are you going to do
:14:03. > :14:07.about the European budget? He does a test for Europe and for him.
:14:07. > :14:13.is a funny sort of test because David Cameron cannot win this one.
:14:13. > :14:20.If they vetoed it, it will end up that he will pay more. The
:14:20. > :14:24.Eurosceptic critics know this. The German position was to have a real-
:14:25. > :14:28.terms freeze, inflation only. The European budget is not big and the
:14:28. > :14:33.power is symbolic. A lot of people bullying Cameron want to get
:14:33. > :14:36.Britain out. I have difficulty following that has a point of logic.
:14:36. > :14:46.I can normally understand what politicians are doing, but it seems
:14:46. > :14:52.
:14:52. > :14:56.The possibility of disintegration within the Tory party is greater on
:14:56. > :15:00.Europe than any other subject. I believe that defeat in mid-term
:15:00. > :15:05.election is commonplace in Britain, it happens in every single cycle.
:15:05. > :15:10.And also, there is this embarrassment of the Police and
:15:10. > :15:13.Crime Commissioners, creating possibly a second and rival power
:15:13. > :15:19.centre within the law enforcement structure. Whether it was really
:15:19. > :15:22.necessary at this point, that said, I think the real crisis is this
:15:22. > :15:27.battle, this infighting in the Conservative Party which goes on
:15:27. > :15:34.and on. He was a Conservative Prime Minister that took Britain into
:15:34. > :15:41.Europe. I think trade with Europe has been wonderful for Britain. It
:15:41. > :15:46.has created prosperity. We do have a large deficit. That may be true,
:15:46. > :15:52.but this is because of the dilemma, this ambivalence Britain has, in or
:15:52. > :16:00.out. That is no good for Britain. well saved mark the last. I know
:16:00. > :16:08.you have a certain view on that. do agree that Labour should have
:16:08. > :16:11.done better, considering these mid- term elections. But a lot of
:16:11. > :16:15.independents have been doing one in the PCC elections and what I am
:16:15. > :16:18.getting is there is a sense of fatigue and disenchantment among
:16:18. > :16:25.mainstream politicians. The Lib Dems were completely destroyed, I
:16:25. > :16:29.believe they lost their deposit. And there was a swing to Labour,
:16:30. > :16:35.the Conservatives tried to undermine it, but it is 2.5 times
:16:35. > :16:38.the swing needed for Labour to win in the next General Election. But
:16:39. > :16:43.Corby is significant in that sense. It could potentially signal a
:16:43. > :16:48.Labour win in the General Election. But there is general disenchantment
:16:48. > :16:53.with the three parties, I think. The attitude people have had
:16:53. > :16:56.towards the PCC elections, I think, is far more a state and on how the
:16:56. > :17:01.machinery of British politics is run, rather than the Conservative
:17:01. > :17:05.Party itself. But this is another episode where the Conservative
:17:05. > :17:11.Party is appearing in a shambles, they have lodged an end up --
:17:11. > :17:16.another inquiry into the PCC elections. -- they have launched.
:17:16. > :17:23.It does not help their image, this slight the incompetent, lots of
:17:23. > :17:28.policy but no followed through. Europe, this week, a big summit.
:17:28. > :17:30.Cameron meeting Angela Merkel. Not a meeting of minds? Or one speaks
:17:30. > :17:34.always about the French and British not getting along but the real
:17:34. > :17:40.fracture in Europe is the British and the Germans. I do not know if
:17:40. > :17:45.it is because they want a reconciliation after the war, or
:17:45. > :17:48.because the interests are perceived as very different. The jealousy of
:17:48. > :17:55.Britain towards the success of Germany. Whatever there is. The
:17:55. > :18:03.Europeans are starting to get a bit fed up with the British, wanting
:18:03. > :18:08.always to fight, not being true Europeans. Without Europe, Britain,
:18:08. > :18:14.it would be nowhere. The political weight is given to Britain. The
:18:15. > :18:20.feeling of belonging that is respected by India, China and
:18:20. > :18:27.America, what would be to do without it being there? Michael
:18:27. > :18:32.agreed with you on that. It was a fantasy to withdraw from Europe.
:18:32. > :18:41.But we hear about British and French shopkeepers doing very well
:18:41. > :18:48.out of Europe... There is the choice between Britain, it is not
:18:48. > :18:52.between pro and anti-Europeans, it is eurosceptic and... Just to
:18:52. > :18:56.pursue that, you have always argued that Britain should get on with an
:18:56. > :19:03.in or outvote and satellite once and for all. And I think now we
:19:03. > :19:07.have got to look -- on over that and the only solutions are to go --
:19:07. > :19:10.are to lead Britain go its own way. You call that insanity. If the
:19:10. > :19:15.British continue to ask for special demands all the time, that is what
:19:15. > :19:19.we will be heading for. A sensible position for Britain is to wait and
:19:19. > :19:24.see what happens to the eurozone. You seemed to imply the eurozone
:19:24. > :19:27.will make it, I hope it does, but you may be wrong. A lot of people
:19:27. > :19:30.at the centre of the project seemed to think the eurozone will come
:19:30. > :19:37.through because the European Union was founded to prevent nationalism
:19:37. > :19:42.and war in Europe. Tell that to the Greeks this week. The Germans are
:19:42. > :19:49.still not acknowledging their obligations. They created this
:19:49. > :19:56.design, with some French assistance, and it cost a lot of trouble.
:19:56. > :20:06.there is crisis in Britain as well, the euro is doing very well.
:20:06. > :20:07.
:20:07. > :20:17.have flat growth this week, you know that. I cannot agree. Better
:20:17. > :20:19.
:20:19. > :20:25.than Spain. What the British do not understand is that Fido -- is
:20:25. > :20:31.that... I do agree that the eurozone might make it. I do
:20:31. > :20:36.believe that it well. Therefore, this panic that was there a year
:20:36. > :20:40.ago is possibly not there now. But I think the crisis is not over.
:20:40. > :20:50.There are still a humped across. That will have to be taken into
:20:50. > :20:54.account. -- there is still a hump to cross. Old Britain is better off
:20:54. > :20:59.playing a central role in Europe than a sideline. That is something
:20:59. > :21:03.British parties have to get into the minds. Including perhaps more
:21:03. > :21:09.the Conservative Party than any other. To return to the start of
:21:09. > :21:18.this conversation, that is the core of David Cameron's problems, there
:21:18. > :21:22.is a fault-line within the Tory party on Europe. They say we are
:21:23. > :21:25.the third force in European politics. It is true that
:21:25. > :21:30.euroscepticism is a very strong force with them conservatism and
:21:30. > :21:35.David Cameron, just like John Major, will find it difficult to deal with.
:21:35. > :21:38.It is a bit like the Scottish mass loyalist saying if only we were
:21:39. > :21:47.separate from those good for people in England. -- the Scottish
:21:47. > :21:52.nationalists. There is a majority are staying in the EU within
:21:52. > :22:02.Britain. Consistently with all the main parties except Conservatives,
:22:02. > :22:03.
:22:03. > :22:09.which is deeply split. It is very deeply rooted, they want to be
:22:09. > :22:14.outside the European Union instead of the old guard who wanted to run
:22:14. > :22:18.out from inside. It is getting more complicated. I seem to remember
:22:18. > :22:28.that General de Gaulle was described as someone who speaks of
:22:28. > :22:30.
:22:30. > :22:34.Europe but a least thinks of France. -- but only things. You have the
:22:34. > :22:44.eurozone, his domineering economy which is doing very well. It is
:22:44. > :22:46.
:22:46. > :22:50.helping the poor. Reluctantly, maybe. In Germany,... They are
:22:50. > :22:53.cutting their spending at the moment, there should be services
:22:53. > :22:59.across the board. They should be pumping demand in to other
:23:00. > :23:03.economies by increasing their own domestic demand. The Germans are
:23:03. > :23:08.exporting the wrong solution. It is the wrong one for them as well. We
:23:08. > :23:14.will all be bankrupt in that scenario. To come back to your
:23:14. > :23:18.original question. I think we cannot separate the European
:23:19. > :23:23.question from David Cameron's desire to look quite Tory and more
:23:23. > :23:26.right wing. There are issues that David Cameron likes to take off
:23:26. > :23:34.every time he likes to cosy up to the hardline or the far right
:23:34. > :23:37.Conservative Party. That applies to the European position. Sometimes I
:23:37. > :23:43.do not know what David Cameron really things or believes, because
:23:43. > :23:50.I think especially with the issue of Europe, he uses it as a lever do
:23:50. > :23:54.not alienate himself from the hardcore Tory right, for which
:23:54. > :24:00.Europe is a big issue. And he does it with Trident, he does it with
:24:00. > :24:05.immigration and lots of other things. Europe is just one salvo in
:24:05. > :24:11.the kind of number of issues that David Cameron likes to play off in
:24:11. > :24:20.both parts of his party to keep the Conservative Party strong. He is a
:24:20. > :24:26.politician, he is like Netanyahu or Obama or President Morsi. Like on
:24:27. > :24:31.fox-hunting, for instance. It is a totemic issue. You have to juggle
:24:31. > :24:37.competing forces. All politicians are constrained by the facts on the
:24:37. > :24:43.ground. They can talk as much as they like, in Cairo, Jerusalem or
:24:44. > :24:46.London, or Berlin and Paris. We will not leave them out! But the
:24:46. > :24:54.facts on the ground edge them in and I am puzzled by Cameron for
:24:54. > :25:01.that reason. The facts are not... really think despite this anti-
:25:01. > :25:06.Europe rhetoric and all that, there is a majority who want to stay in
:25:06. > :25:15.Europe. Because you might have the same as in the US. The people who
:25:15. > :25:21.do not want to stay are the white, male, the UK appetite, hardline
:25:21. > :25:30.Conservatives. But Britain being a multicultural society, it might be