:00:03. > :00:13.I will be back with the full news bulletin at 1pm. It is time for
:00:13. > :00:29.
:00:29. > :00:32.Welcome to the first Dateline London of 2013. Will it be the year
:00:32. > :00:37.when the world economy finally puts the worst of the financial crisis
:00:37. > :00:45.behind it? With the eurozone survive and thrive? Where are the
:00:45. > :00:49.likely places for armed conflict? Our soothsayers and not infallible
:00:49. > :00:52.predictors are Abdel Barri Atwan from Al-Quds Al-Arabi, Thomas
:00:52. > :00:58.Kielinger from Die Welt, Stryker McGuire from Bloomberg Markets, and
:00:58. > :01:02.David Aaronvitch from the Times. The world economy. Has the worst
:01:02. > :01:08.avoid the self-inflicted disaster of the fiscal cliff or delayed a
:01:08. > :01:12.big political fight? Will the euro get through the worst were then
:01:12. > :01:16.reinvest -- reinvigorated local administration? First novel, the
:01:16. > :01:21.worst cliche of 2012 was about kicking hands down the road to
:01:21. > :01:30.solve economic problems. And the cans kept getting bigger and bigger.
:01:30. > :01:35.That is exactly what has happened in America. it is not solved, is
:01:35. > :01:42.that? We have the debt ceiling now. We are dealing with different
:01:42. > :01:47.metaphors. Given the rather nasty mood in Washington and the
:01:47. > :01:52.perceived weakness of the Republican Speaker, it is going to
:01:52. > :01:59.be even more difficult to find agreement on what to cut. Right. I
:01:59. > :02:05.think the White House is what it fears is that the Republicans will
:02:06. > :02:09.actually allow... Will not raise the debt limits, which means
:02:09. > :02:13.federal employees will not get paid and a lot of other things.
:02:13. > :02:17.Government will shut down. The White House is afraid the
:02:17. > :02:26.Republicans are willing to pay that price to make sure that cuts are
:02:26. > :02:31.actually and made in entitlement programmes. Is there any sense this
:02:31. > :02:35.is a repeat of the mid-90s when similar things happened, not in
:02:35. > :02:40.such terrible economic straits, but there was bad feeling between Newt
:02:40. > :02:44.Gingrich and Bill Clinton. There was a shutdown of US government and
:02:45. > :02:50.there was buoy back mostly for the Republicans. Correct, and it helped
:02:50. > :02:55.Bill Clinton who was President at the time. There is a sense that
:02:55. > :03:00.memory softens the concerns that people have. There is a sense that
:03:00. > :03:04.one way or another, the world is not going to blow up, the United
:03:04. > :03:10.States is not going to blow up, the world economy will chug along, but
:03:10. > :03:15.it is really just a sense that you can postpone things. And what a lot
:03:15. > :03:20.of people are concerned about more than debt, for example, is growth.
:03:20. > :03:26.People want growth in the United States. Which is the problem here.
:03:26. > :03:34.Is the worst over? No At Sea As above 6,000, unemployment figures
:03:34. > :03:38.are not as bad as they could be. -- the FTSE. Things in the eurozone
:03:38. > :03:43.are not great but not bad. Leaving the eurozone aside because there
:03:43. > :03:49.are some very varied economies in the eurozone, there is a general
:03:49. > :03:56.proposition in America where we're heading for 1.8% growth, even next
:03:56. > :04:06.year, which is 2% growth, it is not a continuing recession. It is 2%
:04:06. > :04:06.
:04:06. > :04:12.more growth there than here. It is 1.8% more growth than here! We are
:04:12. > :04:16.bumping along also at a low plateau level which gives rise to other
:04:17. > :04:22.problems and we will feel them in a big way over the next year. If you
:04:22. > :04:27.think about things we are rowing about, like train price rises and
:04:27. > :04:32.so on... Above inflation. Yes, what that shows you is that a large
:04:32. > :04:36.section of the population is not earning sufficient extra in order
:04:36. > :04:40.to cushion itself against the extra shocks. There are stories about
:04:40. > :04:45.significant food price increases. This is not going to be a
:04:45. > :04:50.catastrophe and we will not suffer a catastrophe, but what we will
:04:50. > :04:54.suffer is further pessimism and tightening and so on. I think
:04:55. > :04:59.paradoxically was the economy probably does head for a slow
:04:59. > :05:04.growth... We will come back to Britain's problems but it comes at
:05:05. > :05:11.a time when some of the cuts for the government are actually coming
:05:11. > :05:18.on child benefit. Politically, it will be quite tricky. The entire
:05:18. > :05:23.change in the welfare system comes into play this year. If that works,
:05:24. > :05:28.there will be many losers and some winners. It has been something the
:05:28. > :05:33.government has wanted to do for a long time. It is a big change. It
:05:33. > :05:41.could be associated with dramatic problems because new systems in
:05:41. > :05:48.Britain... As we know! What are you suggesting? We did get the Olympics
:05:48. > :05:53.done, so maybe we will get the new income credit system done. The big
:05:53. > :05:57.story in Europe is the question of whether the eurozone can continue
:05:57. > :06:01.to pull together, whether Angela Merkel is re-elected and whether
:06:01. > :06:07.she has a mandate in Germany and to stamp her authority on by Europe
:06:07. > :06:12.where there is not another leader who stands out as capable of
:06:12. > :06:19.leading the eurozone. Quite true. She has been at the helm for eight
:06:19. > :06:28.years and a couple of weeks longer than her predecessor. She
:06:28. > :06:38.represents continuity. I must remind you, she did rock the boat
:06:38. > :06:44.with the change of the energy policy, aggregating nuclear power.
:06:44. > :06:50.After the Japanese nuclear power disaster. She was almost as
:06:50. > :06:55.determined to go ahead with a 10 point plan to merge the two
:06:56. > :07:03.Germany's as Helmut coal. The second moment of weakness was her
:07:03. > :07:08.refusal to go along with the Libyan solution and attacking Gaddafi.
:07:08. > :07:14.Germany abstained. Despite these two blemishes, her record is very
:07:14. > :07:20.good, and I think she is a shoo-in for the re-election in September.
:07:20. > :07:25.She is helped in by the fact the SPT -- SDP leader... His position
:07:25. > :07:32.is dire. In Europe, she is going to go into new ventures, new steps to
:07:32. > :07:34.give more aid to countries, she has done all she can to stabalise
:07:34. > :07:39.Greece and get the European Central Bank involved, but I don't think
:07:39. > :07:45.she will do any more specific things. The German taxpayer has had
:07:45. > :07:55.enough of transfer of money. So there will be no neutralisation of
:07:55. > :07:57.
:07:57. > :08:07.natural -- neutralisation of national debt. She is pretty
:08:07. > :08:08.
:08:08. > :08:12.uncontested across Europe. We will talk about the dire trouble of some
:08:12. > :08:19.of the Arab states, but in terms of economics, the Gulf states
:08:19. > :08:24.continued to do extraordinary well. Years, the oil price is very high
:08:24. > :08:29.and production is very high also. So we have a lot of money there.
:08:29. > :08:34.But the whole world is bankrupt. There is a crisis in Europe and in
:08:34. > :08:38.the United States. But the Middle East is driving. The Gulf states.
:08:38. > :08:44.Talking about the eurozone, I remember the beginning of last year,
:08:44. > :08:51.many people were predicting that the eurozone would collapse. Greece
:08:51. > :08:56.would be kicked out of the eurozone. And, you know, the German mark will
:08:56. > :09:06.come back again. The French franc would come back again. And the
:09:06. > :09:07.
:09:07. > :09:13.Stirling would be god bless. What is happening now? The euro is
:09:13. > :09:19.strong, the eurozone is still stable, and could actually be,
:09:19. > :09:24.because it is the end of the recession, with zero growth, but
:09:24. > :09:31.wants to steady the ship, and we have to be thankful to the German
:09:31. > :09:36.efficiency... And Greece is on board. This is a complement for the
:09:36. > :09:43.new year. I take the complement. Greece is still in, Berlusconi
:09:43. > :09:47.might come back in. Things are going well. That is an example of
:09:47. > :09:53.The X Factor. These things come in and Royal everything again. Italy
:09:53. > :09:58.could become a very serious problem again, and so could Spain.
:09:58. > :10:01.whole of last year, talking about Spain collapsing, Italy collapsing,
:10:01. > :10:11.and the bail out how to deal with this, how to raise money for the
:10:11. > :10:12.
:10:12. > :10:17.bail out, but until now, nothing. Since we are focusing on the next
:10:17. > :10:25.year, it is a fairly safe prediction to say that the Euro-
:10:25. > :10:29.sceptic train did not come in. David Cameron is worried about UKIP.
:10:29. > :10:34.It is a difficult problem because UKIP, except for the Conservative
:10:34. > :10:42.Party, it is not a significant party. It is not really politically
:10:42. > :10:48.serious. There will be people watching he will be an uproar. You
:10:48. > :10:57.discover that there is a massive lack of coherence in the party.
:10:57. > :11:03.They are riding a slight populist wave. In order to get 10% of the
:11:03. > :11:09.vote, it is a problem. The Conservative Party have to maintain
:11:09. > :11:12.their support among East UK I P. They could have lived with UKIP
:11:12. > :11:16.having votes if they had an alternative vote system that
:11:16. > :11:22.allowed people to transfer back to the Tories but they campaigned
:11:22. > :11:25.against it so this is not a possibility. So if people vote UKIP,
:11:25. > :11:30.that is a detachment from the Conservatives. What David Cameron
:11:30. > :11:34.has realised is that if he wants to do anything in the world, in the
:11:34. > :11:38.economic world, his best friend, his closest buddy, his biggest ally
:11:38. > :11:42.is going to have to beat Angela Merkel. There is nothing that
:11:42. > :11:49.Britain needs to do that can't be done without her. That is full of
:11:49. > :11:54.logic. They come from the same places of how to run economies.
:11:54. > :11:59.he knows that now. He also understands that abandoning the
:11:59. > :12:02.centre ground is not good long-term strategy. The question is how to
:12:02. > :12:08.play enough off to the site to keep them quiet was doing the serious
:12:08. > :12:12.things. Do you think that could work? He is doing a bit of
:12:12. > :12:19.brinkmanship trying to appease everyone. I don't have much faith
:12:19. > :12:24.in the great speeches going to give you -- on Europe. He wants to be
:12:24. > :12:29.close to Germany, but he has his agenda of the revision of
:12:29. > :12:32.competences. He wants to seek where the European Union has been helpful
:12:32. > :12:38.to Britain and where it hasn't, and he wants to we patriot certain
:12:38. > :12:42.aspects. That is not going to fly with Angela Merkel. He can threaten
:12:42. > :12:47.his colleagues that if he doesn't get some sort of the tracing of
:12:47. > :12:52.steps, they will have to lose him. Germany doesn't want to lose
:12:53. > :12:57.Britain. Germany is ready to keep Britain on board so we will see
:12:57. > :13:02.some very, you know, interesting negotiations going on and nobody
:13:02. > :13:06.knows how it is going to pan out because it will only happen in 2015
:13:06. > :13:10.when he is offering this referenda. As Britain winds down its
:13:10. > :13:14.commitment in Afghanistan, the light has trouble spots of 2013
:13:14. > :13:19.remain in the arc of instability which stretches from North Africa
:13:19. > :13:26.through to Pakistan, so what should keep us awake in 2013 in potential
:13:26. > :13:31.conflicts? China and Japan? Wars in Africa? Syria is the forefront --
:13:31. > :13:37.so it is in the forefront of our minds. I think it is going to beat
:13:37. > :13:45.Iran. Whether it will be war or peace, there is a re-election this
:13:45. > :13:49.month, at the end of this month, and we have, you know, a lot of
:13:49. > :13:54.aircraft carriers in the Gulf, and the Americans and the British have
:13:54. > :13:58.them there, hundreds of warships, everyone is talking about war. On
:13:58. > :14:04.the table, there are negotiations between Iran and the United States,
:14:04. > :14:08.so whether it will be peace or war. The whole face of the Middle East
:14:08. > :14:14.could change dramatically. This is a crucial year for the Middle East.
:14:14. > :14:20.Look at that. The nuclear programme and how the West will deal with it.
:14:20. > :14:23.Will they contain it or bomb it? That is the most important thing.
:14:23. > :14:31.Syria, we can understand what is happening in North Africa and Syria
:14:32. > :14:39.and Iraq. The situation in Syria, the anarchy, is spilling over to
:14:39. > :14:43.Iraq. We have the same intifada in Iraq. This could be initiated by
:14:43. > :14:47.the same countries who would like to drag them into a wall. Do you
:14:47. > :14:53.think this is the year that President Assad will go? We do not
:14:53. > :14:57.know, we cannot predict. Last week I was in Jordan and I met King
:14:57. > :15:01.Abdullah, and he disagreed with all these predictions that President
:15:01. > :15:09.Assad will go. He has told me that he is still strong. He still
:15:09. > :15:15.managed to gain support from his own Alawite sect. Many people
:15:15. > :15:22.predicted the last year that his days are numbered, but he is still
:15:22. > :15:30.there. Many reports from serious say that he is strong. What about
:15:30. > :15:36.Syria? They could be different zones of control. President Assad
:15:36. > :15:43.has changed his tactics and he is talking to Russia. And also around.
:15:43. > :15:50.He is enjoying some support from them. This war is costing him $1
:15:50. > :15:55.billion a month. So he only got about $2 billion under his disposal.
:15:55. > :16:05.So maybe two months he will finish, but we have to remember that Saddam
:16:05. > :16:08.
:16:08. > :16:18.Hussein survived 13 years of I don't buy this at all. I think he
:16:18. > :16:24.will be gone by the end of the year. Saying that somebody's days on
:16:25. > :16:31.numbers -- number it does not mean you know what that number is! The
:16:31. > :16:38.rebels are gradually tightening around Assad in Damascus. He almost
:16:38. > :16:44.certainly can't stay the full year. I predict he will be gone. Leaving
:16:44. > :16:52.aside the question of Iran's nuclear programme, I think one of
:16:52. > :17:01.the problems for Iran is with Assad gone, what you have is an enormous
:17:01. > :17:06.weakening of Iran's influence in the area. There is a siege problem
:17:06. > :17:16.between -- a big problem between the secular influence in Iran and
:17:16. > :17:23.the council. It is not solvable. The sanctions are really biting.
:17:23. > :17:32.Iranian people... We cannot predict this will lead to one thing or
:17:32. > :17:35.emanation, because the 2009 situation was put down. But it is a
:17:35. > :17:40.major sub-theme, which I think is the weakening of the Iranian
:17:40. > :17:43.alliances. There may be some miraculous
:17:43. > :17:51.resurgence of indigenous opposition which will raise its head and
:17:51. > :18:00.become stronger. But isolation is what I see. I also agree with you,
:18:00. > :18:07.David, on the issue on whether or not Assad will survive. In Iraq,
:18:07. > :18:15.there was not such a strong opposition force. Here we have a
:18:15. > :18:19.war that is getting bloodier by the day. It is unsustainable.
:18:19. > :18:22.problem is that we are talking about a similar scenarios in the
:18:22. > :18:29.Middle East. One of the most common scenarios is that Assad could, in
:18:29. > :18:32.the end, even if Damascus falls to the hands of the rebels, he will
:18:32. > :18:42.retreat to his Alawites territories in the North of Syria and he could
:18:42. > :18:47.
:18:47. > :18:53.fight again. Colonel Gaddafi did the same thing. This scenario is
:18:53. > :19:01.very viable. He could take some of the chemical weapons with them. It
:19:02. > :19:10.is not a predictable area in the Middle East. As far as I'm
:19:10. > :19:19.concerned, as soon as he does that, he is gone. It will be another
:19:19. > :19:29.problem. You have an organisation which is orthodox Muslim jihad Bo
:19:29. > :19:30.
:19:30. > :19:36.is a thing we have not talked about it is what that means if there is a
:19:36. > :19:39.sunny resurgence in the area. Sunni Resurgence. Many people are
:19:39. > :19:46.looking at the second term of the US President, thinking that Barack
:19:46. > :19:50.Obama, going back to his Kiri speech, has issued interest in the
:19:50. > :19:54.region. But there has been no great change in American policy because
:19:54. > :20:03.American interests remain constant. No great change in American policy,
:20:03. > :20:07.but look at Libya. That is different from Iraq. We have a
:20:07. > :20:12.president and his Secretary of Defence who voted against the war
:20:12. > :20:22.in Iraq. That is pretty remarkable. Whether or not that makes a
:20:22. > :20:25.
:20:26. > :20:29.difference, it will be interesting to look at Iran's election. Let's
:20:29. > :20:36.look at the relationship between the US and Israel and see whether
:20:36. > :20:40.that changes at all after the election. It is a difficult year.
:20:40. > :20:48.It is a crucial year in the Middle East. It could change the whole of
:20:49. > :20:52.the Middle East. Predictions about the past a better! That brings us
:20:52. > :20:56.on to our predictions for the year ahead. We have about five minutes
:20:56. > :20:59.left. You have written a book about the Queen and you are interested in
:20:59. > :21:06.the British royal family. My prediction is that there will be a
:21:06. > :21:10.while baby. That is a safe bet! Will it be a boy or a girl? With
:21:10. > :21:20.all this doom and gloom about impending crisis and was, I will
:21:20. > :21:24.predict there will be a happy birth of a boy. Well, that's that!
:21:24. > :21:34.are talking like Middle Eastern people here! Gynaecologist Stella's
:21:34. > :21:34.
:21:34. > :21:44.that the way the pregnancy has gone so far points to the birth of a boy.
:21:44. > :21:48.Women had hoped that in this key position, there might be a woman,
:21:48. > :21:51.but we might have to wait another generation. But we have the Queen
:21:51. > :21:56.in the meantime. We have the matriarch holding On and putting
:21:56. > :21:59.her foot down when she needs to, like in the case of homosexual
:21:59. > :22:03.marriages in Anglican churches, where she clearly told David
:22:03. > :22:08.Cameron, not on my territory. She is Supreme Governor of the Anglican
:22:08. > :22:15.Church, and there is a new aspect written into the homosexual build
:22:15. > :22:24.which forbids the Anglican Church to hold such considerations. It is
:22:24. > :22:31.clearly in the writing of the Queen! The Queen does not think
:22:31. > :22:37.about things like homosexuality. Moving on to further predictions,
:22:37. > :22:43.you have already said it would be the year of around. What else do
:22:43. > :22:53.you foresee? I will bring down my crystal ball. I will be the king of
:22:53. > :22:57.
:22:57. > :23:03.Palestine. I think Syria will be dominant. I can see Syria being
:23:03. > :23:08.dismantled, and also Iraq. I can see the probabilities of bombing
:23:08. > :23:18.Iran by Israel is actually one of the things which could happen this
:23:18. > :23:19.
:23:19. > :23:26.year, because I believe Israel will elect a very right-wing government.
:23:26. > :23:31.Netanyahu's campaign is to go around bombing Aram, so I would be
:23:31. > :23:40.surprised if is Railtrack's the war into a -- tracks the West into a
:23:40. > :23:43.wall against Iran. God knows what will happen. We have gone from a
:23:43. > :23:53.nice prediction about children in the royal family to something very
:23:53. > :23:56.unpleasant. One reason I think this is and -- an interesting story as
:23:56. > :24:06.an all-male panel is what has happened because of the rape in
:24:06. > :24:06.
:24:06. > :24:11.Delhi. And talking about Pakistan, India and other places in the
:24:11. > :24:17.Middle East. The pressures of modernisation are forcing
:24:17. > :24:21.traditional societies with strong patriarchy is into rapid and
:24:21. > :24:26.difficult change, and it is one to keep an eye on. We always talk
:24:26. > :24:30.about life in terms of revolutions with guns and weapons and blood,
:24:30. > :24:34.but some of the biggest changes that happening societies happen
:24:34. > :24:39.without such things happening. They are done by millions of ordinary
:24:39. > :24:49.people changing the way they behave, and they East create real ruptures
:24:49. > :24:51.
:24:51. > :24:58.and changes. This tells us something else about possible
:24:58. > :25:03.alternative futures like areas in Pakistan. I can barely contain my
:25:03. > :25:08.excitement about Thomas's prediction. It means we don't have
:25:08. > :25:14.to worry about anything else, if this happens. It will be such a
:25:14. > :25:23.great moment. We all know it will be a girl now he has said it would
:25:23. > :25:29.be a boy! Will it be of German ancestry? That is being diluted
:25:29. > :25:35.ever-more. 30 seconds. Gun-control in the United States. Now Hedwig?
:25:35. > :25:42.That is fairly safe. Anything else? There will not be any headway.
:25:42. > :25:48.There may be some HET tinkering that will help. The fiscal crisis
:25:48. > :25:52.that began in 2007, 2008, which was supposed to have ended a while ago
:25:52. > :25:56.and is still with us, then continued to stay with us, and that
:25:56. > :26:03.will hurt the UK because the financial sector in this country is