:00:03. > :00:13.the move. There will be a full round-up at 1 o'clock.
:00:13. > :00:29.
:00:29. > :00:33.Hello and welcome to Dateline London. Britain's coalition
:00:33. > :00:36.government at half-time - they tell us they are doing well. Are they?
:00:36. > :00:40.President Assad tells Syrians and the world he will fight to the end
:00:40. > :00:43.for his country. And a senior US diplomat tells
:00:43. > :00:50.Britain we are better off within the EU and there are dangers in
:00:50. > :00:54.having a referendum. My guest today are Maria Margaronis off the Nation,
:00:54. > :00:58.Catherine Mayer of Time magazine, Abdullah Homouda, an Egyptian
:00:58. > :01:00.journalist and Adam Raphael of Transport magazine.
:01:00. > :01:03.Did British Prime Minister David Cameron and his Liberal Democrat
:01:03. > :01:05.deputy Nick Clegg produced a progress report this week on how
:01:06. > :01:10.well they claim their government has been doing halfway through its
:01:10. > :01:14.five-year term. This was slightly spoiled when it was revealed that
:01:15. > :01:20.they debated whether to keep out a list of the 70 or so promises or
:01:21. > :01:22.pledges they had failed to fulfil, a list published only after a
:01:22. > :01:26.senior political aide was photographed carrying a document
:01:26. > :01:30.which outlined the pros and cons of publishing it. Despite the
:01:30. > :01:35.slapstick comedy, how well are they doing and how fit are they for the
:01:35. > :01:39.challenges ahead? What did you make of this show this week, saying,
:01:39. > :01:44.this is how well we have done? Presentation early, it was a
:01:44. > :01:48.disaster. They are not very skilled at this for one reason or another.
:01:48. > :01:54.There has been a series of cock-ups. But it depends what your
:01:54. > :01:58.expectations of governments are. I don't have high expectations. And
:01:58. > :02:06.therefore, the idea somehow that this really matters - it doesn't.
:02:06. > :02:11.It is just one more flurry of things. When you have two partners
:02:11. > :02:16.disputing with each other, it is never going to be an easy form of
:02:16. > :02:19.government anyway. When you are in the middle of a serious economic
:02:20. > :02:23.crisis, when people's real living standards are going down, it is
:02:23. > :02:28.hardly surprising that this Government is very unpopular and is
:02:28. > :02:33.likely to commute to be brave considerable time -- it is likely
:02:33. > :02:37.to continue to be. You could look at things they failed to do, like
:02:37. > :02:42.House of Lords reform, but on the other hand, you could look at more
:02:42. > :02:45.serious things, like, are they managing the economy sensibly? Have
:02:45. > :02:50.their retained the confidence of the international markets? You
:02:50. > :02:56.could give them a qualified yes. It is a mixed bag - very unpopular
:02:56. > :02:59.government. Perhaps the most surprising thing is how well the
:02:59. > :03:05.coalition has held together. Those who used to say, this thing will
:03:05. > :03:11.fall apart after 18 months, no longer say that. Most now expect it
:03:11. > :03:14.to go for the full term. There are lots of things we could go on to
:03:14. > :03:19.talk about like the possibility of a double-dip recession, but maybe
:03:19. > :03:21.the big point is that they have been together for the last two and
:03:22. > :03:28.a half years and they may stay together. The main thing the
:03:28. > :03:33.markets worry about Israel political instability from Greece.
:03:33. > :03:36.Yes. There are statements that are made by the government for internal
:03:36. > :03:40.political consumption, and that seems like it was the purpose of
:03:41. > :03:49.this. Why would you have a mid-term review when the economy is in such
:03:49. > :03:54.a dire state? With the closure of Jessops and the closure of Honda
:03:54. > :04:00.and the loss of jobs, it does seem to be about holding the coalition
:04:00. > :04:04.together. After this announcement, Nick Clegg had to come out against
:04:04. > :04:08.Cameron's Europe policy. Then there is the key issue of the so-called
:04:08. > :04:14.welfare bill. That is not popular with the Lib Dems either. So it
:04:14. > :04:17.does seem to be creaking as a coalition. I alluded to the
:04:17. > :04:21.slapstick bit, which is that it could happen to any government and
:04:21. > :04:24.has happened to others, when somebody is photographed with
:04:24. > :04:27.documents that should not be seen. But one of the big pitfalls for
:04:27. > :04:31.this coalition is that people assume that the Conservatives will
:04:31. > :04:35.be competent, whether you agree with them or not. But the past year
:04:35. > :04:39.has shown incompetence about things, which worries many within the
:04:39. > :04:43.Conservative Party itself. See, I would say they are doing an
:04:43. > :04:51.excellent job at filling the gap in the comedy schedules left by the
:04:51. > :04:55.thick of it. You could praise them for satire! Adam was right. In
:04:55. > :04:59.presentation terms, this is a disaster. It is interesting, how
:04:59. > :05:05.hard they found it to get their press operation working smoothly.
:05:05. > :05:09.They have great people, but they don't work together well enough.
:05:09. > :05:13.But there are more serious issues here. I don't want to pre-empt hour
:05:13. > :05:19.later discussion, but I disagree with Adam in that it is very
:05:19. > :05:22.serious, what is going on. What is worse than a strong government that
:05:22. > :05:27.does not listen is a weak government that listens to the
:05:27. > :05:33.wrong people. The problem with this coalition is that it is so much
:05:33. > :05:42.about it survival and the struggle both to appeal to their bases, but
:05:42. > :05:50.also to stay together. They are blown about by these populist winds.
:05:50. > :05:54.As an example, what is going on with Europe is potentially of huge
:05:54. > :06:00.significance and not just in Britain, and it is something where
:06:00. > :06:06.they are being blown by populist winds as they try and square this
:06:06. > :06:15.circle of what they airbases want and that might what their bases
:06:15. > :06:18.want and what they needed it to stick together. This year, we will
:06:18. > :06:25.see serious welfare reform, one of the biggest things any government
:06:25. > :06:29.can do, and a huge reorganisation of the NHS. So two of the biggest
:06:29. > :06:35.bureaucracies in Western Europe are being reformed by a government
:06:35. > :06:41.which is open to being pushed on things like the past the tax and a
:06:41. > :06:46.granny tax, or relatively tiny issues, which could blow them in a
:06:46. > :06:55.particular direction. Any reform like this is subject to be the --
:06:55. > :07:03.likely to be subject to disagreement. This coalition could
:07:03. > :07:11.be described as a mature management of differences. But this also
:07:11. > :07:21.implies that there are a lot of promises they could not fulfil.
:07:21. > :07:25.That shows that the unity they have tried to present and not fulfilled
:07:25. > :07:31.100% means that their eyes on 2015 and are on the election. The Tories
:07:31. > :07:37.would like to have a comfortable majority, and the Lib Dems would
:07:37. > :07:47.like to save their ratings in the polls and not be overtaken by UKIP.
:07:47. > :07:51.Or wiped out completely. You are seeing the UKIP-transformation of
:07:51. > :07:57.the Tory party, which will be disastrous not just for the Tory
:07:57. > :08:04.party, but for this country and potentially for Europe. Those two
:08:04. > :08:08.big reforms, welfare reform and NHS reform, Maria alluded to the
:08:08. > :08:12.uprating of welfare benefits less than the rate of inflation and, but
:08:12. > :08:16.that is quite small compared to these other two things, which will
:08:16. > :08:25.be huge. At the day-to-day note of optimism in how you described them,
:08:25. > :08:31.Gavin. I wish I share your optimism. The problem with the welfare reform
:08:31. > :08:36.is, I wish I had more confidence that it will work. It is incredibly
:08:36. > :08:45.difficult to reform welfare. Iain Duncan Smith is possibly not the
:08:45. > :08:54.right man to do it. It would need a William Beveridge or more to do it.
:08:54. > :09:02.I doubt Mr Duncan Smith has that. As for the NHS, I disagree with
:09:02. > :09:07.Catherine. This is grown-up politics. But don't expect too much
:09:07. > :09:13.from a coalition government at a time of economic crisis. These
:09:13. > :09:17.Tudor reforms do make me nervous. The welfare reform in particular
:09:17. > :09:22.could go seriously wrong, quite apart from the computers not being
:09:22. > :09:26.able to compute the damn things. The whole idea of cramming all
:09:26. > :09:30.benefits into one single benefit is incredibly complex. People's lives
:09:30. > :09:36.are not like that. I come at it from a very sceptical point of view.
:09:36. > :09:42.I hope I am wrong because it is worth trying, but I am not sure. I
:09:42. > :09:49.hate to agree with you! But I am not convinced this is a time for
:09:49. > :09:54.big ideas. You mentioned competence, and what people are really looking
:09:54. > :10:01.for in this incredibly difficult time his competence and focus on
:10:01. > :10:05.the big issue, which is how you achieve growth. You don't achieve
:10:05. > :10:12.growth by launching into his grand visions. Depending on whether you
:10:12. > :10:17.see that as grown-up politics or politicking, those will not produce
:10:17. > :10:20.the outcomes we want. The late and largely unlamented
:10:20. > :10:24.Colonel Gaddafi wants insisted his people would love him until the end.
:10:24. > :10:29.That was one of many things he got wrong. This week, Syria's President
:10:29. > :10:32.Assad told the world he would fight for his country until the end. Like
:10:32. > :10:37.Gaddafi, will the end comes in, and how bloody is it likely to be? The
:10:37. > :10:43.past year has been terrible in Syria. Having heard what he said,
:10:43. > :10:50.which was defiant, do you see any sign of that? It is difficult to
:10:50. > :10:54.see an end, I agree. But Lakhdar Brahimi's approach and the
:10:54. > :11:00.agreement with Saudi Arabia to include Iran in the quartet as
:11:00. > :11:06.suggested by the Egyptian President could provide a way out of, because
:11:06. > :11:10.his friends might convince him to go. The Iranians and the Russians.
:11:10. > :11:17.If this happens, that would be the only available way out, otherwise
:11:17. > :11:21.he is doomed. His regime is doomed anyway. But it is difficult to get
:11:21. > :11:27.people who have taken power without the consent of their own people to
:11:27. > :11:33.listen to the people. He is finding it difficult to understand - if you
:11:33. > :11:38.remember, after he took over in 2000, people had hopes that he
:11:38. > :11:42.would change, but he was subjugated to the old guard, who kept him in
:11:42. > :11:47.check and continued the old policies. The world has moved, but
:11:47. > :11:53.the regime has not. There is also the difficult question of what
:11:53. > :12:00.happens afterwards. It is much more complex than Egypt. Syria seems to
:12:01. > :12:04.be in a terrible civil war. 60,000 people have died. The Western
:12:04. > :12:11.powers are anxious about what comes next. We have Israel building a
:12:11. > :12:13.wall along the goal-line heights and Patriot missiles in Turkey. Who
:12:13. > :12:19.are the opposition? What will happen between those different
:12:19. > :12:24.groups? And we have a society like Lebanon's, which is very
:12:24. > :12:30.complicated. You don't want to keep Assad in power because of the fear
:12:30. > :12:35.of what happens afterwards. It is wrong to draw parallels between
:12:35. > :12:41.Libya and what is going on in Syria. The position of Assad is very
:12:41. > :12:45.different from that of Gaddafi. He has a much more solid backing
:12:45. > :12:49.amongst the Alawite community. Those are people who will fight on
:12:49. > :12:54.and on. That was not so true of Gaddafi. There was a loyalist
:12:54. > :12:59.community around him, but nevertheless, I think civil war is
:12:59. > :13:04.the right way to describe this. Like most people, I would of course
:13:04. > :13:14.like it to end as soon as possible, but it is difficult to see this
:13:14. > :13:14.
:13:14. > :13:24.ending immediately. Gaddafi's position, -- unless his allies in
:13:24. > :13:24.
:13:24. > :13:29.Iran pull the plug, it is difficult When you talk to diplomats, what is
:13:29. > :13:33.striking is how little hope anybody has for any of the so-called
:13:33. > :13:38.solutions. It is not just about as sad's backing, he has a very strong
:13:38. > :13:43.backing, but it is this strong constituency terrified of what will
:13:43. > :13:50.come after, they will not support anything which topples him just out
:13:50. > :13:58.of fear that a Sunni Arab takeover would prove the worse for them. A
:13:58. > :14:03.third of the country is so called minorities. I have been talking to
:14:03. > :14:08.a lot of diplomats recently. No one has a strong sense of the way
:14:08. > :14:12.forward. This makes it incredibly dangerous that where there is a lot
:14:12. > :14:16.of unanimity, in spite of the noises about this being close to
:14:16. > :14:21.the end of the regime, they don't actually think that is true. It
:14:21. > :14:26.looks like he could caught -- hold on for a very long time.
:14:26. > :14:31.I think he will hold on for some time. I disagree with Adam on the
:14:31. > :14:37.fact that the Alawite will fight for him, the Alawite have not
:14:37. > :14:43.fought. By the nature of the spread in the country except for the north
:14:43. > :14:50.coast, the fear that if they fight for him they could be left to fight
:14:50. > :14:57.for their own lives, if the balance is tipped in favour of him, they
:14:57. > :15:02.would, probably. But so far, no. The situation is very difficult.
:15:02. > :15:09.The danger of dividing the country is still there. The danger of
:15:09. > :15:14.fundamentalism is still there. It is really thought for danger, and
:15:14. > :15:17.the more it goes, the more dangerous it becomes.
:15:17. > :15:20.Any British diplomat or journalist spending much time in Washington
:15:20. > :15:25.quickly realises that successive presidents and most successful
:15:25. > :15:29.members of Congress can only see a future for the UK inside the
:15:29. > :15:34.European Union. So when a senior American diplomat pretty much said
:15:34. > :15:38.that this week it was nothing new, excepted comes ahead of a major
:15:38. > :15:41.speech by David Cameron on the subject of Europe shortly. The
:15:42. > :15:46.American view appears to be that even the question of holding a
:15:46. > :15:52.referendum may turn Britain in which, which would not be in
:15:52. > :15:56.British or American interests -- may turn Britain in word. Catherine
:15:56. > :16:01.Mayer, when you speak to politicians who are interested in
:16:01. > :16:08.this, do they broadly take the view expressed by the State Department,
:16:08. > :16:13.that Britain must be in the EU? Absolutely. From both parties?
:16:13. > :16:17.You have to qualify that by saying there is remarkably little detailed
:16:17. > :16:22.understanding of the different tensions going on, there is a lot
:16:22. > :16:30.of impatience at what they see. The effect of the debt crisis in Europe
:16:30. > :16:34.has been not to increase Euro- scepticism but to actually ram home
:16:34. > :16:38.in America and places further afield the importance of Europe as
:16:38. > :16:42.an economic bloc. What they actually care about, and there are
:16:42. > :16:49.also huge issues like defence, looking at the end of Afghanistan
:16:49. > :16:52.and possible engagement in other parts of the world, this matters in
:16:52. > :16:57.Washington. They probably care more about what happens in Europe than
:16:58. > :17:03.they might do at quieter times. And Britain has always had this role of
:17:03. > :17:09.being the sort of bridge to those strange continentals. They
:17:09. > :17:13.telephone exchange, as Henry Kissinger said. He said get me
:17:13. > :17:19.Europe, there was one number that you run, that was presumably in
:17:19. > :17:23.Westminster. Maybe they don't think that any more? There have been
:17:23. > :17:28.leaders in continental Europe who have changed that. Angela Merkel,
:17:28. > :17:33.just by her longevity, has good connections in Washington. But
:17:33. > :17:37.there is also a huge churning European leaders. Churn is a good
:17:37. > :17:46.way of putting it. Although Berlusconi will come back,
:17:46. > :17:51.obviously! Many times! So it is seen clearly in American interests
:17:51. > :17:55.that Britain is in the EU? That is how they see it? Absolutely.
:17:55. > :18:02.America has brought a welcome dose of reality to an insane debate
:18:02. > :18:07.going on in this country. It is total folly, really. I suppose
:18:07. > :18:11.Britain is divided into three groups, Europhiles like myself,
:18:11. > :18:18.Euro-sceptics who are pretty doubtful about the whole thing, and
:18:18. > :18:24.then Europhobes. The Europhobes group is really so far from reality.
:18:25. > :18:30.The fact that America has at least indicated quite clearly in the past,
:18:30. > :18:37.but it is useful in this debate, what future has Britain outside of
:18:38. > :18:43.the EU? Part of the Commonwealth? Reinventing some sort of trade
:18:43. > :18:47.grouping? It is impossible. This is what is useful, it is beginning to
:18:47. > :18:51.concentrate minds. I share the view that this referendum is a
:18:52. > :18:56.disastrous way forward, it is a total distraction, it will do
:18:56. > :19:00.Britain's economy no good at all, because why should people invest in
:19:00. > :19:06.this country if they think there will be a referendum which might
:19:06. > :19:10.pull us out of Europe? The American influence is very useful. What is
:19:11. > :19:16.interesting is that the Europhobes naturally align themselves, they
:19:16. > :19:25.regard themselves to the 51st state, the 52nd state, I forget how many
:19:25. > :19:29.there are! Just 50 so far. Let's not exaggerate, they will not come
:19:29. > :19:34.to their senses, the Europhobes, they are far too deeply dug into
:19:34. > :19:40.their bizarre pit. But nevertheless it is very useful to confront the
:19:40. > :19:43.realities of what is actually there on the table, what will happen and
:19:43. > :19:49.why this wild idea that the Europeans will allow us to
:19:49. > :19:53.renegotiate our way into some sort of wonderful nirvana which will be
:19:53. > :19:59.suitable to the British electorate, it is just madness. George Osborne
:19:59. > :20:04.appears to think... In an interview this week, if there is not
:20:04. > :20:08.significant change in the way the EU is run, we are out? This is part
:20:08. > :20:11.of Osborne's fantasy land. I completely agree with the others
:20:11. > :20:16.that Britain's only international role, the only way it can punch
:20:16. > :20:21.above its very tiny weight, in global terms, at the moment, is as
:20:21. > :20:24.a bridge between America and Europe. It is part of the fantasy world in
:20:24. > :20:29.which people who get state benefits live with the curtains drawn all
:20:29. > :20:34.day. I think the only place that will be harmed his Britain. I think
:20:34. > :20:38.Angela Merkel would like to see Britain stay engaged, particularly,
:20:38. > :20:41.as a counterweight to Francois Hollande. Our government is much
:20:41. > :20:46.more aligned with purview of how things should develop economically,
:20:46. > :20:50.if not politically. I don't think the rest of Europe will shed a tear
:20:50. > :20:55.if Britain want to leave. It has already lost influence, that is the
:20:55. > :21:00.thing about the debate. We are talking about Britain losing more
:21:00. > :21:04.influence and having less say about what goes on and however much a lot
:21:04. > :21:09.of people in Britain would like to ignore it, still part of this part
:21:09. > :21:15.of the world. Still affected by decisions for which you have very
:21:15. > :21:18.little say? Exactly. If you look at the economy, George Osborne will
:21:18. > :21:23.tell you one of the reasons the British economy is not doing as
:21:23. > :21:29.well as he would like is because of what is going on in the eurozone.
:21:29. > :21:35.Well yes, DoH! Maybe you want to be at the table influencing those
:21:35. > :21:41.decisions. I think Mr Cameron is trying in his
:21:42. > :21:46.own way to outdo both Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair by trying
:21:46. > :21:53.to play an unnecessary game of brinkmanship which is going wrong.
:21:53. > :21:58.He probably does not know until now whether he would prefer to do his
:21:58. > :22:06.speech in the Netherlands or Germany. He was counting on Angela
:22:06. > :22:12.Merkel to help him. I am not sure whether she will help him. He is
:22:12. > :22:18.playing into the hands of the Euro- sceptics and the Europhobes. This
:22:18. > :22:22.is totally not understanding the reality of the world's, with the
:22:22. > :22:28.opposition of the business community, the opposition from
:22:28. > :22:32.people like Heseltine and many others. I think it is not helping.
:22:32. > :22:38.Here is a possible future for this country, 24 team, there is a
:22:38. > :22:43.referendum in Scotland on independence, and they win -- 2014,
:22:43. > :22:48.there is a referendum in Scotland. Those in favour of independence win.
:22:48. > :22:54.2015, British general election, 2016, referendum on Europe, and
:22:54. > :23:02.then what is left of the UK, Brits -- England, Wales, and possibly
:23:02. > :23:06.Northern Ireland, though it's to get out? If one wants to become an
:23:06. > :23:10.offshore Channel Islands, or Denmark, or Sweden, it might be a
:23:10. > :23:14.possible future. But what is so interesting is that people who
:23:14. > :23:19.really want to get out, that is not how they view Britain at all. They
:23:19. > :23:22.still see it as a great imperial power full of tridents and nuclear
:23:23. > :23:27.weapons on the transatlantic alliance. The last thing they want
:23:27. > :23:31.to do is go into some kind of small-scale Belgium or Holland or
:23:31. > :23:35.what-have-you. I have to be awfully careful, the last time I said
:23:35. > :23:40.there's a Dutch journalist quite rightly objective furiously.
:23:40. > :23:44.Belgium, Sweden and Denmark you have also riled, all the letters
:23:44. > :23:49.can come to you! It depends on how you see Britain's future. That is
:23:49. > :23:55.why I think reality will dawn on these characters, which makes it so
:23:55. > :24:00.fascinating. In a sense, they are like small boys, believing in
:24:00. > :24:04.something which bears no relation to what actually is going on in the
:24:04. > :24:09.real-world. This clash between their fantasies and the real world
:24:09. > :24:14.is coming ever closer together, and eventually they will have an
:24:14. > :24:20.understanding. You are such an optimist. You actually think that
:24:20. > :24:24.people will listen to this debate and see reason. That is great.
:24:24. > :24:28.won't see reason, but they will just see what the options finally
:24:28. > :24:32.are. They still believe they can renegotiate their way out of Europe,
:24:32. > :24:36.but they can't. One of the reasons I don't think that will happen is
:24:36. > :24:42.because Europe really has very big structural problems, and the move
:24:42. > :24:45.towards federalism is an attempt to address problems which are
:24:45. > :24:52.fundamental. So they will always have more ammunition to turn around
:24:53. > :24:57.and say look out terrible Europe is. We have always -- already had
:24:57. > :25:00.several referendums, which I think is a lousy way of consulting the
:25:01. > :25:04.people. You elect politicians and let them get on with it, you don't
:25:04. > :25:10.keep going to a referendum which, frankly, depends on the phrasing of