:00:06. > :00:16.Syrian refugees have fled. I will be back at 1pm. Now it is
:00:16. > :00:29.
:00:29. > :00:34.time for Date Line London, live Welcome To Date Line London. Three
:00:34. > :00:40.big cheers for democracy this week. Well, sort up. Britain's referendum
:00:40. > :00:46.on Europe, Israel's elections and Barack Obama's inauguration. My
:00:46. > :00:50.guests are John Fisher Burns of the New York Times, Saul Zadka up of Al
:00:50. > :00:55.London, Nesrine Mali, a Sudanese writer, and Janet Daley of the
:00:55. > :00:58.Sunday Telegraph. If the Conservative Party wins the next
:00:59. > :01:02.election, there will be a referendum on Europe. Is this a
:01:02. > :01:06.political masterstroke, a genuine democratic consultation or a
:01:06. > :01:16.political tactic driven by internal Tory party politics which could
:01:16. > :01:18.
:01:18. > :01:24.result in a strategic'? What do you think? Is this a great plan?
:01:24. > :01:33.that the official BBC view? No, it is the Swedish finance minister's
:01:33. > :01:38.idiot. Oh, I see that is a quote. There is no BBC view. If there was
:01:38. > :01:43.a democratic vote to cut out, that would be a cheer. Democracy
:01:43. > :01:46.according to the majority of the population if they wanted out. The
:01:46. > :01:53.point is Cameron outlined quite elegantly and with faultless logic
:01:53. > :01:57.a delightful scenario of what Europe might be like, that we would
:01:57. > :02:02.have this diverse, democratically accountable separate nation state
:02:02. > :02:07.with our own integrity and able to Corporate when they pleased and so
:02:07. > :02:11.on. It is completely contrary to the original conception of the
:02:11. > :02:14.founding fathers of Europe, the whole point of it was to deprive
:02:14. > :02:18.countries of democratic accountability. The idea was a
:02:18. > :02:22.franca-German conception after the war and was intended to prevent
:02:22. > :02:26.electorates going rogue and criminal governments whose
:02:26. > :02:29.disagreements tended to end in mass murder and the whole point was to
:02:29. > :02:34.get institutions that would be impervious to democratic
:02:34. > :02:39.accountability. I do not think there is a hope of Cameron getting
:02:39. > :02:44.the kind of reforms he wants, at least not to the radical degree
:02:44. > :02:48.that he wants. But what that would mean for the supposed referendum,
:02:48. > :02:55.what are we going to be voting to come out of? It is very unclear at
:02:55. > :02:59.this point. Why promise it? You know that the alternative view, not
:02:59. > :03:06.just the Swedish finance minister who David Cameron likes very much,
:03:06. > :03:10.but also from other people is where are the voices in favour of this?
:03:10. > :03:16.of the referendum? The United Kingdom Independence Party want it
:03:16. > :03:24.and many British people do not care that much. About 53% of the
:03:24. > :03:29.population. When asked. When it is a salient question. When you wake
:03:29. > :03:34.up in the morning do you think about that or jobs? Probably not
:03:34. > :03:41.unless you are an obsessive. That is the point. The question is how
:03:41. > :03:43.much consequence on your daily life... More people are convinced
:03:43. > :03:47.that the limitations on political action and democratic
:03:47. > :03:52.accountability are affecting their lives, but even more so in other
:03:52. > :03:55.countries in Europe. There is a lot of indication that the German
:03:55. > :03:59.population would quite like to have a plebiscite on whether they should
:03:59. > :04:03.stay in the European Union. The Greeks and the Spanish and the
:04:03. > :04:07.Italians, you could almost make the argument that Cameron was trying to
:04:07. > :04:10.pitch his message over the heads of the European institutions and the
:04:10. > :04:15.leadership director the peoples of Europe who are becoming quite
:04:16. > :04:20.restless. That is exactly the point. There has been for years, not just
:04:20. > :04:25.in Britain and those who are buoyant Euro-sceptics, but all
:04:25. > :04:30.across Europe people think they do not have a say in this. Referendums
:04:30. > :04:34.in some countries do not go the way the bureaucracy once, they are held
:04:34. > :04:39.again to get the right answer and that is a major problem for the
:04:39. > :04:44.legitimacy of the EU. That is partially what motivated David
:04:44. > :04:49.Cameron to call for a negotiation because he feels that throughout
:04:49. > :04:52.the country he has plenty of support, not only in the Czech
:04:52. > :04:57.Republic, but in other countries who are finding it quite resentful
:04:57. > :05:02.they have lost so much of their own sake in many matters, including
:05:02. > :05:11.foreign affairs. It is quite ironic that David Cameron by seizing the
:05:11. > :05:16.moment, so to speak, he has chosen that timing three days before her
:05:16. > :05:19.we saw that Britain is maybe going into a triple dip recession. It
:05:19. > :05:23.means it would be better for Britain to declare its intention to
:05:23. > :05:28.have a referendum it from a position of strength, but he does
:05:28. > :05:32.not have it. It seems to me David Cameron is gambling not only on our
:05:32. > :05:40.future, but on the future of the Conservative Party by choosing such
:05:40. > :05:48.a timetable two years after the elections. You have been a senior
:05:48. > :05:53.member of the US State Department. They need countries to focus
:05:53. > :05:58.internally on internal matters is the implications. In other words
:05:58. > :06:02.the bye administration does not think much of this. The United
:06:02. > :06:10.States has its own compelling national interest in seeing Britain
:06:11. > :06:15.remain in Europe, because it has a perspective that is often shared by
:06:15. > :06:20.the United States. It is a moderating influence. But the
:06:20. > :06:24.Barack Obama administration knows full well that there are plenty of
:06:24. > :06:31.issues in the United States that are settled on a state-by-state
:06:31. > :06:38.basis, by popular boats, for example the vote in California on
:06:38. > :06:43.the same-sex marriage. There is a broader issue and I would say we
:06:43. > :06:47.have all known that there was going to come a point where the people of
:06:48. > :06:51.this country had to be consulted again given the tremendous changes
:06:51. > :06:57.that have taken place in the European Union since the last time
:06:57. > :07:02.the British people were consulted in 1975, 36 years ago. The need for
:07:02. > :07:07.it is accelerated by events in Europe which David Cameron can
:07:07. > :07:11.hardly be held responsible for. We know the European Union is going to
:07:11. > :07:15.be substantially restructured in a centrist direction. We know that
:07:15. > :07:22.there are a very substantial number of people in this country who are
:07:22. > :07:30.already discomfited over what they have seen has been the intrusive
:07:30. > :07:34.petty manners of the Eurocrats. It seems to me that David Cameron had
:07:34. > :07:37.to do something in what is essentially a logical fashion. Be
:07:37. > :07:42.not consent the people until we know what the deal will be and
:07:42. > :07:48.let's see if we can get a deal. More than half of his speech, which
:07:48. > :07:52.was overlooked by his critics, his own passionate belief in Europe.
:07:52. > :07:58.Indeed it was, but that led to another question, which is if you
:07:58. > :08:02.do not get the deal that you want which side we you end up on? We are
:08:03. > :08:07.all attributing slightly lofty reasons to Cameron's motivation for
:08:07. > :08:13.making the speech. I agree it is a topic people feel something about
:08:13. > :08:19.when they are asked, but it is not a pressing concern. Not if you go
:08:19. > :08:29.to the local pub. You go to the local pub and they will all reply,
:08:29. > :08:33.but it is not a pressing concern for people. My problem is I do not
:08:33. > :08:38.understand why it offer a referendum before you have had the
:08:38. > :08:42.renegotiation? Why did Cameron not say we will renegotiate, I am going
:08:42. > :08:47.to engage robustly with the European Union and then I will come
:08:47. > :08:53.back with the proposition? What happens now is between now, the
:08:53. > :08:55.renegotiation if it is successful, and the referendum, it is you have
:08:55. > :09:00.potentially five years of internal political war in Parliament and in
:09:00. > :09:07.the Tory party and Cameron is siding himself with a vote to stay
:09:07. > :09:12.in and negotiated with Europe who think that he is an out person.
:09:12. > :09:17.the normal parliamentary cycle you have the principal parties strongly
:09:17. > :09:22.opposed to each other on various matters and that leads to a
:09:22. > :09:31.fundamental insecurity. It is unnecessary. Why promise a
:09:31. > :09:35.referendum? Why promise it if there is such a long period? He has put
:09:35. > :09:39.effectively an end, or at least called a ceasefire, on the war in
:09:39. > :09:43.his own party by declaring himself in favour of a referendum. He has
:09:43. > :09:47.also put his cards on the table with Europe and in effect is making
:09:47. > :09:54.a threat and saying if we do not get the renegotiation we want, we
:09:54. > :10:01.are out. This is fundamental, how is that supposed to endear him and
:10:01. > :10:05.strengthen his position? We are beyond endearing. If he wants to
:10:05. > :10:10.stay in Europe heart and soul and goes to negotiate, these are the
:10:10. > :10:16.basics of negotiating skills. If you do not give us what we want, we
:10:16. > :10:21.are out. The bit about heart and soul, this was a sordid attempt to
:10:21. > :10:27.cover both parts of his own party. He wanted this, he was trailing the
:10:27. > :10:34.speech as being more Euro-sceptic than Margaret Thatcher's speech in
:10:34. > :10:38.Bruges. From the point of view of Europe we are long gone that the
:10:38. > :10:44.ship has sailed about endearing yourself to Europe. Now this is
:10:44. > :10:48.poker, this is not chess. Well we finish the British politics, the
:10:48. > :10:53.really big story is presumably this gloom about the economy and the fat
:10:53. > :10:58.we may be in for a triple dip recession. It is not a huge debt,
:10:58. > :11:03.but it is not what George Osborne want it. A lot of people inside the
:11:03. > :11:06.party are wondering if he has got it right. Yes, there is a big
:11:07. > :11:12.argument about capital expenditure and using the rhetoric of austerity.
:11:12. > :11:17.The rhetoric of austerity seems to have been intimidating so many
:11:17. > :11:21.people who are responsible, who could be responsible for creating
:11:21. > :11:24.growth that it has become counter- productive. But at the same time
:11:24. > :11:29.the business about injecting money in terms of capital spending is not
:11:29. > :11:34.the same thing. Plenty of people argued you can inject capital
:11:34. > :11:37.spending into the economy while still cutting back all the welfare
:11:37. > :11:41.programmes and entitlement programmes. They are quite separate
:11:41. > :11:45.issues and they are getting muddled. They are, but part of the Court of
:11:45. > :11:50.this is there are a lot of big companies in this country sitting
:11:50. > :11:53.on a lot of cash and not prepared to spend it. There is the
:11:53. > :12:01.Government's spending question and the private sector spending his
:12:01. > :12:06.befuddled by uncertainty. But that is true in Europe as well. On the
:12:06. > :12:11.possibility Europe cannot afford to lose Britain and Britain cannot
:12:11. > :12:18.afford to lose and the Continent and he will come out with a good
:12:18. > :12:22.deal for the people. Can I mention one thing? I think George Osborne
:12:22. > :12:25.exposed this when the GDP figures came out and said the reason they
:12:25. > :12:32.were depressed is because there is the pressure in the euro-zone of
:12:32. > :12:36.which 50% of our exports go to. So you are privately a Euro-sceptic,
:12:36. > :12:39.you are campaigning for a vote privately to get out of Europe, but
:12:39. > :12:49.you are saying the reason why the GDP figures are low is because
:12:49. > :12:55.there is a crisis in the euro-zone. Teddy Roosevelt talked-about
:12:55. > :12:59.talking quietly and carrying a big stick. He had a big stick. Does
:12:59. > :13:05.David Cameron had a big stick? think it is quite plain that even
:13:05. > :13:10.the French really do not want the United Kingdom outside of Europe.
:13:10. > :13:15.They made very well, a few years from now, be prepared to meet
:13:15. > :13:20.Cameron if not halfway maybe quarter of the way. We have five
:13:20. > :13:25.years to discuss it. The people of Israel went to the polls this week
:13:25. > :13:30.and Benjamin Netanyahu is probably going to be prime minister. Israel
:13:30. > :13:33.is a democracy, but is the result yet again a week per minister in
:13:33. > :13:38.thrall to small groups and parties who do not have any idea of peace
:13:38. > :13:48.with Palestine and it is impossible. How do you see this? He is
:13:48. > :13:59.
:13:59. > :14:07.He has become very weak, simply because one third of his voters
:14:07. > :14:17.deserted him, either to the far right, all nicely to the centre.
:14:17. > :14:19.
:14:20. > :14:28.Yesh Atid. Yes. To think that these are seasonable, fashionable parties,
:14:28. > :14:34.they are always looking for a warm home. They are frustrated by
:14:34. > :14:39.Netanyahu's inability to do anything. The to be rude about it,
:14:39. > :14:44.is the system, the democracy clearly works and they have a
:14:44. > :14:48.vigorous press, but is the system for forming a government in Israel
:14:48. > :14:54.quite dysfunctional? There is always a small party that will peel
:14:54. > :15:04.off on something in the coalition. It is the most democratic system,
:15:04. > :15:12.in my opinion, but it doesn't really work! However, what we are
:15:13. > :15:17.seeing during this election is a great deal of people who felt that
:15:17. > :15:22.Netanyahu abandoned them. This might be the beginning of the end
:15:22. > :15:31.of his premiership. He is already a lame duck before the start of his
:15:31. > :15:36.new term. He will definitely be paying a heavy price because he
:15:36. > :15:40.will have to pay more for his future coalition partners. A I
:15:40. > :15:44.think the answer to your question is yes, Nissan yard to his weakened
:15:45. > :15:48.with smaller parties snapping at his heels. However, a good thing
:15:48. > :15:54.and a bad thing has happened in this a good selection in Israel.
:15:54. > :15:58.People have been moving away from the rhetoric of war with Palestine
:15:58. > :16:03.as a motivator when it comes to the ballot box. That is something that
:16:03. > :16:06.Netanyahu had tried, but they are fed up with that. The people are no
:16:06. > :16:10.longer voting on scare tactics when it comes to threats from
:16:10. > :16:15.Palestinians. The bad thing is that peace with the Palestinians has
:16:15. > :16:21.fallen off the radar when it comes to any kind of electoral rhetoric
:16:21. > :16:28.or motivation for the Israelis. The status quo is being perpetuated and
:16:28. > :16:35.sold as desirable. So there is no peace process? It has fallen off
:16:35. > :16:39.the tee -- table. People are concerned about income, pensions,
:16:39. > :16:44.employment and so on, and people forget that Israel is a country
:16:44. > :16:49.that has functions and lives at side its conflict with Palestine.
:16:49. > :16:52.However, it is not promising for peace with Palestine, because it
:16:52. > :16:58.has fallen off the radar in terms of what people want, because there
:16:58. > :17:01.is a status quo at the moment. The wall is being erected and is being
:17:01. > :17:05.seen as something that has perpetuated peace and made things
:17:05. > :17:11.more stable, and so people are going to the ballot box thinking
:17:11. > :17:18.things are fine as they are. It may be a status quo, but it is not a
:17:18. > :17:23.stable status quo. Things in Israel changed rapidly. I find it quite
:17:23. > :17:28.dispiriting, because outside of Israel on all sides you see very
:17:28. > :17:32.sates of chaos in the Arab world. That is going to be a long time
:17:32. > :17:38.before it is resolved, but one thing that seems to be clear, and
:17:38. > :17:43.this is true particularly of two crucial nations in this region,
:17:43. > :17:48.Egypt and Syria, that is the mis- sold one way or another going to be
:17:48. > :17:53.taking a fundamentally important role, which is going to strengthen
:17:53. > :17:56.Hamas the Ellises to the other Palestinian groups and going to
:17:56. > :18:01.make any kind of negotiated settlement or a two-state solution
:18:01. > :18:06.even more difficult. It seems to me that we will have to accept that
:18:06. > :18:11.there is going to be a generation long hiatus in effective peace
:18:11. > :18:17.negotiations. I'm sorry, I did degree. If we take the Muslim
:18:17. > :18:21.Brotherhood's attitude in the last attacks on Gaza, it was by no means
:18:22. > :18:26.the strength in hand that everybody expected. If anything, people were
:18:26. > :18:32.surprised. The US was pleasantly surprised that the Egyptian Muslim
:18:32. > :18:36.Brotherhood was happy to talk Hamas down, if anything. It is not a
:18:36. > :18:43.situation where the Muslim Brotherhood has risen to a sentence
:18:43. > :18:52.in the Arab world and his strength in the arm of Hamas and Hizbollah.
:18:52. > :18:59.President Morsi made remarks some years ago about Jews and he is now
:18:59. > :19:02.discounting them. It would be dangerous to assume that a
:19:02. > :19:12.continuing Muslim Brotherhood government of Egypt would be a bar
:19:12. > :19:15.
:19:15. > :19:20.you will part of the peace process. To be fair... As you say, an awful
:19:20. > :19:24.lot of anti-Semitic, or anti- Zionist, comment in this country
:19:24. > :19:31.before the elections was absolutely convinced that this would be a
:19:31. > :19:36.right wind swings. A Jewish home. And the assumption was that this
:19:36. > :19:46.would become an extremely hawkish coalition. However, it worked out
:19:46. > :19:46.
:19:46. > :19:50.numerically. What is interesting, I think, in Egypt with the Muslim
:19:50. > :19:53.Brotherhood government, is how much agitation and resistance they race
:19:53. > :19:58.to it. They are a great many people in Egypt to actually wanted
:19:58. > :20:06.democracy, a modern democracy. Imagine that! There were people who
:20:06. > :20:13.were a -- agitating against this takeover by is amiss. There is a
:20:13. > :20:18.schism in Egyptian politics on its way. I agree. The Muslim
:20:18. > :20:25.Brotherhood by no means has a wide mandate in Egypt sufficient to
:20:25. > :20:32.engage foreign relations in strengthen in -- strengthening its
:20:32. > :20:36.hand. I think the Muslim but there had threat is... I just want to get
:20:36. > :20:42.back to Israel for a second. This is where we start the conversation
:20:42. > :20:49.to. Is it true that there is chaos on the borders, it had you see the
:20:49. > :20:53.next year with Netanyahu trying to form a coalition with one party
:20:54. > :20:57.that, for example, wants to change the rules on what the ultra-
:20:57. > :21:02.orthodox can do, and perhaps having a small author -- orthodox party
:21:02. > :21:07.that would leave the coalition if that happens? There are too many
:21:07. > :21:10.conflicting parties within the Government. I could see another
:21:10. > :21:19.general election within a year or two, so we will have another
:21:19. > :21:24.opportunity to discuss it before the British general elections! One
:21:24. > :21:30.party is advocating peace talks with the Palestinians. On that
:21:30. > :21:33.slightly happier note, I would like to bring in thoughts about Barack
:21:33. > :21:37.Obama's in operation this week. He talked about the role of government
:21:37. > :21:44.and co-operation with other parties. He did say that the ten-year war is
:21:44. > :21:54.over. I thought, good luck with that. It was a very liberal
:21:54. > :21:57.progressive speech. That means left-wing! And it was certainly a
:21:57. > :22:02.tremendous spectacle, as it always is, but it reminded me somewhat of
:22:02. > :22:07.what they say about battle plans and campaign plans. They did last
:22:07. > :22:14.Yvonne to -- beyond the first engagement. Many of his ideas are
:22:14. > :22:18.grand and soaring, but what chance does he have of achieving these
:22:18. > :22:22.plans in the face of a fundamentally divided, and in many
:22:23. > :22:28.cases hostile to him Congress. Fifty-fifty divided. Almost
:22:28. > :22:31.completely down the middle. No doubt he will put some meat on the
:22:31. > :22:37.bones when he gives his state of the Union address next month. But
:22:37. > :22:42.the appeal for people to unite is a good one and will appeal to many
:22:42. > :22:46.Americans, but will it work? It has fallen flat. I thought be in
:22:46. > :22:53.operation felt quite flat. The rhetoric about the end of the
:22:53. > :22:57.decade of war was really tried. Obama usually carried -- manages to
:22:57. > :23:03.combine profundity with rhetoric, but I thought this was quite right.
:23:03. > :23:07.You have Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq all in turmoil. Marley,
:23:07. > :23:13.Algeria, a fragmented terrorist network which is a proxy for
:23:13. > :23:17.political rebellion across North Africa. Across North Africa and the
:23:17. > :23:22.Arab world, post Arab Spring, what has become clear about a barn is
:23:22. > :23:26.that he cannot deal with new ones in foreign policy. He cannot deal
:23:26. > :23:30.with foreign policy at all! Can I say as somebody who spent years in
:23:30. > :23:37.Iraq and Afghanistan, I think he deserves considerable credit for
:23:37. > :23:41.bringing those wars, one of them, to a conclusion, and the other one
:23:41. > :23:46.is now less than 24 months we may hope from a conclusion. I think
:23:46. > :23:52.that a large number of Americans and Europeans and people elsewhere
:23:52. > :23:56.would say that that may be his signal achievement. But what he has
:23:56. > :24:00.made clear by saying that this is the end of a ten-year period of war
:24:00. > :24:03.is that America is withdrawing from that stage. But only are they
:24:03. > :24:07.withdrawing from that stage, but also from Eastern Europe. He made a
:24:07. > :24:11.speech early on in his first term when he removed the missile shield
:24:11. > :24:18.in Poland and the Czech Republic that, we are out of here and you're
:24:18. > :24:28.on your own. At the immigration speech was music to liberal ears,
:24:28. > :24:30.
:24:30. > :24:35.but I am not so sure that the Syrian refugees as enjoyed it! He
:24:35. > :24:39.has been tracked into the comforts by France. He was not involved in
:24:39. > :24:47.the current situation in Syria. He is three reluctant to be involved
:24:47. > :24:51.in Algeria or in Mali. He said in his speech that, in order to ensure
:24:51. > :24:57.peace and lasting security, we do not have to perpetuate was, but he
:24:57. > :25:01.has simply declared himself as a weak president in foreign affairs.
:25:01. > :25:05.People in Europe in particular do tend to speak with forked tongues
:25:05. > :25:12.about this. When the United States has an assertive foreign policy,
:25:12. > :25:17.they aggressively to like -- dislike it. When the United States
:25:17. > :25:20.says that they have paid a price in blood and treasure in these
:25:20. > :25:26.engagements, we need time to mend our own wits at home, people say,
:25:26. > :25:33.where are you, America? He has withdrawn and he is trying to bring
:25:33. > :25:37.these messy was to a conclusion. But it is not a triumphant,
:25:37. > :25:41.gracious with the role of strength. It is a bloodied, weakened and
:25:41. > :25:48.ballad with Coral. He wants to develop his own welfare state at