:00:28. > :00:32.A full news bulletin at 1pm. Now Hello. Welcome to Dateline UK. At
:00:32. > :00:37.end of a week of sex and elections and I'm not talking about Italy,
:00:37. > :00:42.though Rome will provide the back drop for the conclave to choose the
:00:42. > :00:46.next leader of the Catholic Church following the departure of Pope
:00:46. > :00:51.emer Tuesday Benedict. Until the beginning of the week Keith O'Brien
:00:51. > :00:53.was intending to cast a vote in that election. But allegations of
:00:53. > :00:58.inappropriate behaviour, levelled by three priests and a former
:00:58. > :01:01.priest, put paid to. That though he denies them, he resigned. Claims of
:01:01. > :01:08.inappropriate behaviour dogged the Liberal Democrats too, unnerving
:01:08. > :01:12.them as they defended Eastleigh a seat vacated as a rilt of another
:01:12. > :01:17.scandal. We'll discuss the Catholic Church and British politics. As big
:01:17. > :01:22.spending cuts kick in in the United States because of continued
:01:22. > :01:27.political deadlock, whou fragile is the world economy? My guests are
:01:27. > :01:31.Maria Margaronis of The Nation. Catherine Pepinster who Ed its the
:01:32. > :01:36.Catholic newspaper The Tablet. Dmitry Shiskin a Russian specialist
:01:36. > :01:40.at BBC Global News and Polly Toynbee from the guardian.
:01:40. > :01:45.Polly, Eastleigh was beastly for the Tories. But how bad was it?
:01:45. > :01:50.It's hard to know. In the immediate aftermath everybody is terribly
:01:50. > :01:54.excited, bit of an upset. The stoirz can't win the seat. UKIP
:01:54. > :01:59.arise out of almost nowhere to overtake the Tories, which is
:01:59. > :02:05.frightening for them. Is this a typical mid-term anti-Government
:02:05. > :02:10.spasm? Nearly always by-elections are used for people toual lop the
:02:10. > :02:14.Government of the day. But UKIP have a particular resonance, not
:02:14. > :02:19.just in this country, but across Europe with the issues that they're
:02:19. > :02:22.touching. There's toxic issues about Europe itself but
:02:22. > :02:28.particularly about immigration and Europe about every country in
:02:28. > :02:33.trouble wanting to draw up its boundaries, and worried about
:02:33. > :02:37.globalisation and particularly movement of people. I don't know
:02:37. > :02:41.yet how much significance it will have. But it is certainly not
:02:41. > :02:44.insignificant. Do you think it fits in with the pattern of politics
:02:44. > :02:50.we're seeing at the moment in other parts of Europe? It's interesting
:02:50. > :02:55.coming in the same week at the Italian election where Beppe
:02:55. > :03:01.Grillo's movement got a quarter of the vote. Again, I think that is
:03:01. > :03:07.very much an anti-politics move though not in the send that Conrad
:03:07. > :03:11.meant in 1984 when he coined the term that it's not about scepticism
:03:11. > :03:15.and seeing elite policies and ideology of forwarding particular
:03:15. > :03:20.agendas, but about overturning. But I think again with Beppe Grillo we
:03:20. > :03:24.have an ambiguous politics going on in. Some ways they seem to be on
:03:24. > :03:28.the left. On the other hand we have seen him come up with anti-
:03:28. > :03:32.immigrant rhetoric also in Italy. In one way, one could see this as a
:03:32. > :03:36.poplt for democracy. But in another way it's a dangerous and
:03:36. > :03:40.frightening moment because people are not, people are looking at
:03:40. > :03:44.rather mistifying terms and trying to find a story that explains how
:03:44. > :03:46.they feel without really understanding what's going on.
:03:46. > :03:50.is the big message that the Conservatives seem to be saying,
:03:50. > :03:55.look, we haven't got our message across, we haven't explained to
:03:55. > :03:59.people how bad things are, how difficult it is to improve things
:03:59. > :04:02.again. Is that adequate as an explanation do you think? No, I
:04:02. > :04:06.don't think so. One of the things that interested me most and I don't
:04:06. > :04:10.know if it's true because it's the claim by UKIP that there were a lot
:04:10. > :04:15.of people who voted for them who hadn't voted for anybody else for
:04:15. > :04:18.years, those people had felt disenfranchised. They felt that the
:04:18. > :04:23.parties that won like norm dr one might normally consider voting for
:04:23. > :04:28.weren't speaking for them. That's a real issue for the political system
:04:28. > :04:31.in this country and other countries like Italy that people feel that
:04:31. > :04:37.they don't connect with the political class and that there's
:04:38. > :04:42.that real lack of communication that the politicians are very
:04:42. > :04:47.distant from people's concerns and problems. There was a very, very
:04:47. > :04:50.low turnout. Only half the people in this incredibly hard-fought by-
:04:50. > :04:56.election, filled with every leading politician in the country, still
:04:56. > :04:59.only half the people bothered to vote at all. Isn't that quite high
:04:59. > :05:04.for a by-election? I'm not sure. But it's lower than the general
:05:04. > :05:10.election. Filling a constituency with politicians puts people off
:05:10. > :05:17.politics, that's quite a gloomy example of the difficulty they're
:05:17. > :05:20.facing in engaging people. Your point about the success of UKIP by
:05:20. > :05:24.presentation is the interests of people who otherwise are not
:05:24. > :05:27.represented by other parties is a very important one. More
:05:27. > :05:33.importantly, moving into the European elections next year, how
:05:33. > :05:38.would you keep performing with that regard. Obviously, they might do
:05:38. > :05:42.really well in that sense and if they do really well, people already
:05:42. > :05:46.feel very distant from all things European any way. Then if you keep
:05:46. > :05:51.representing Britain officially on the European stage, be it in
:05:51. > :05:55.Parliament with all that, everything to do with Parliament,
:05:55. > :05:59.strictly speaking that is a party which is not necessarily a big one
:05:59. > :06:04.on the UK stage but might become a force on the European one. Is this
:06:04. > :06:08.something that is surprising given that the Prime Minister had made
:06:08. > :06:11.his pitch for arguably people who might other-wise support UKIP with
:06:11. > :06:17.the negotiations on the European budget, where he put his foot down
:06:17. > :06:20.and got a real terms cut, where we had the argument over the possible
:06:20. > :06:25.renegotiation of Britain's relationship in Europe. Did he do
:06:25. > :06:30.it too soon? Absolutely. He went in and he's gone as close to UKIP as
:06:30. > :06:34.you could get. The Tories selected a candidate, one of Cameron's
:06:34. > :06:37.choices who was almost UKIP, wants to get out of Europe, wants to stop
:06:37. > :06:41.immigration. There was almost no difference whatever between the
:06:41. > :06:49.pitch he made and the pitch that UKIP made. UKIP had a powerful,
:06:49. > :06:52.quite grown up, serious candidate, better than the Tory candidate, yet
:06:52. > :06:55.even then, it didn't help the Conservatives raise their vote.
:06:56. > :07:00.Both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats who, who won,
:07:00. > :07:05.lost 14% of their vote. It's very hard to know what conclusions to
:07:05. > :07:10.draw from this except that the anti-politics feeling is strong.
:07:10. > :07:14.And not just isolated to here? thing we have to watch carefully,
:07:14. > :07:19.though Michael Gove has said clearly, no the Tory party won't
:07:19. > :07:25.move to the right, we're seeing other European countries, the
:07:25. > :07:29.centre-right party moving closer to a far-right party to reclaim lost
:07:30. > :07:34.votes. Some European countries have been in this situation. You
:07:34. > :07:39.remember what has happened in the Netherlands about ten years ago,
:07:39. > :07:43.same thing with Austria, other European countries, I think what is
:07:43. > :07:47.really important is that all of those things, prot test movement
:07:47. > :07:51.might be fuelled by the state of economy rather than anything else.
:07:51. > :07:54.Because isolationism is the first, is a very easy way to go if you're
:07:54. > :07:58.not happy with the things, with your pay and the rest of things.
:07:58. > :08:05.That's something we will come to later in the programme. One of the
:08:05. > :08:10.most striking images of the week featured Benedict XVI bidding
:08:10. > :08:14.farewell and departing the Vatican in the papal helicopter. Physical
:08:14. > :08:17.trail ti is one explanation for his retirement and the other the
:08:17. > :08:22.polarised politics of the Vatican itself. Is it time for a younger
:08:22. > :08:26.Pope an bring a perspective from outside of Europe? Catherine
:08:26. > :08:31.Pepinster, how different do you think this papal election will be?
:08:31. > :08:36.I think it will be remarkably different - well, I hope it's going
:08:36. > :08:42.to be. That's another matter. difference this time round is that
:08:42. > :08:48.there's not only an ex-Pope, as it were, sitting in his summer
:08:48. > :08:54.residence, which may impact on what people talk about and think about,
:08:55. > :08:59.but I feel that the church really is at a cross roads wh. They
:08:59. > :09:04.elected Benedict. A lot of them wanted continuity from the
:09:04. > :09:09.Pontificate from John Paul II. They went for somebody they were
:09:09. > :09:14.terribly familiar with. While he has been a very interesting Pope in
:09:14. > :09:19.an intellectual way, it's been a very troubled Pontificate. We've
:09:19. > :09:25.had the scandal of child abuse, which the church has clearly dealt
:09:25. > :09:31.with in many parts of the world, well in a scandalous way. There's
:09:31. > :09:38.been a lot of troubles that have emerged that are at the heart of
:09:38. > :09:48.the Vatican through what's been called Vati-leaks. People already
:09:48. > :09:54.knew the government part of the Catholic Church is riven with
:09:54. > :09:58.rivalry, that it's very bureaucratic, and it keeps the
:09:58. > :10:05.church top heavy. People feel it's time for all that to be under
:10:05. > :10:10.discussion and that that needs a younger man, a younger man who has
:10:10. > :10:16.more energy and more determination, perhaps, to really tackle those
:10:16. > :10:20.people at head office. Although, I think that coming, my perspective
:10:20. > :10:24.would be a global one on. That I was reading some of the notes from
:10:24. > :10:30.BBC Spanish website yesterday, obviously, some people say the next
:10:30. > :10:34.Pope could come from Latin America, well 40% of all Catholics are in
:10:34. > :10:37.Latin America at the moment. People say there are three or four big
:10:37. > :10:44.areas that need to be tackled. That's about the question of
:10:44. > :10:47.celibacy and it's not even about the church matters themselves, it's
:10:47. > :10:50.more the church attitude to poor for example, one of the big things.
:10:50. > :10:57.More than half of the cardinals that are voting have been put in
:10:57. > :11:01.place by the Pope Emeritus. they are very reactionary. One
:11:01. > :11:05.never knows. You never know, people can appoint somebody within the
:11:06. > :11:09.beating heart of one of those cardinals there may be a more
:11:09. > :11:16.liberal voice trying to get out, even if they weren't appointed with
:11:16. > :11:21.that. That happened with John the 23rd of course. The system is
:11:21. > :11:27.designed to make sure that nothing changes. When you have, it's such a
:11:27. > :11:36.bizarre organisation, when you have an all-male, apparently celibate,
:11:36. > :11:42.but not really, secretive, utter autocracy, what can you expect
:11:42. > :11:48.except galloping corruption. Almost like any institution in the world.
:11:48. > :11:53.Any organisation that is like that, religious or not, is always becomes
:11:53. > :11:58.toxic. Without fresh air, it's always a disaster. You're right, it
:11:58. > :12:03.needs radical reform. I'm hoping that the next two weeks will at
:12:03. > :12:07.least enable some of these issues to be aired, because the cardinals
:12:07. > :12:13.don't just go straight into the vote, which I think a lot of people
:12:13. > :12:17.assume that they do. There will be time for really serious discussion.
:12:17. > :12:24.I think enough of the cardinals know this time that's got to be
:12:24. > :12:29.done. The other thing that's very interesting is the extent to which
:12:29. > :12:34.the changing heeda world -- media world may impact what they do and
:12:35. > :12:41.how they think. Some of them are talking about tweeting during this
:12:41. > :12:46.ethese -- these discussions. They wonts be kept away from the media
:12:46. > :12:51.themselves. The media will affect... They're going tweet inside the
:12:51. > :12:54.conclave? No, but what they call the general congregations. Those
:12:54. > :12:59.are the most crucial moment. That's where they thrash out what they're
:12:59. > :13:02.going to discuss. I can see ears of journalists pricking up at the
:13:02. > :13:08.thought of this. And who might be merge as a candidate. Then they
:13:08. > :13:11.have these dinners that they go to and certain blocks and factions
:13:11. > :13:17.emerge where they talk together and decide how they're going to vote
:13:17. > :13:23.and who they're going to vote for. It's full of intrigue. The way you
:13:23. > :13:28.describe it to use the wrong word business an teen. We have an
:13:28. > :13:34.organisation which is -- Byzantine. We have an organisation which is
:13:34. > :13:39.the oldest in the world, male, theoretically celibate, bent on
:13:39. > :13:42.maintaining and extending its own power which has been responsible
:13:42. > :13:48.for destroying countless lives through its attitudes to women,
:13:48. > :13:55.contraception, condoms for AIDS, etc, why, even if you have a
:13:55. > :13:59.theoretically infallible CEO, why is tkhainking the CEO going to make
:13:59. > :14:04.such a difference to that? It can make a difference. I mentioned in
:14:04. > :14:08.response to what Polly was saying that John 23 made a huge difference
:14:08. > :14:13.to the church. It is possible for a CEO, as you call it, to change
:14:13. > :14:17.things. While I know, I know why you've made the comments you have
:14:18. > :14:22.made about the Catholic Church and lives, it's also responsible for
:14:22. > :14:27.enhancing a great number of lives, if you look at what it does in
:14:27. > :14:32.terms of health care, education in many parts of the developing world.
:14:32. > :14:42.I think one issue... You wouldn't include its treatment of AIDS which
:14:42. > :14:51.
:14:51. > :14:56.has been scandalous, telling people One particular cardinal so bad and
:14:56. > :15:00.I was never a fan of him. Catholic health organisations in Africa
:15:00. > :15:05.refusing to distribute condoms. Pope Benedict had a slight opening
:15:05. > :15:09.Ahmad. Three of you have brought up celibacy. Cardinal Keith O'Brien,
:15:09. > :15:13.before the controversy which led to his retirement, brought the subject
:15:13. > :15:18.up and floated the idea that maybe the Church should review that.
:15:18. > :15:22.Would that be the kind of issue that, say, a Latin American or run
:15:22. > :15:28.African cardinal, if they were elected Pope, would bring a fresh
:15:28. > :15:35.perspective? I think a Latin American or African cardinal would
:15:35. > :15:40.be somebody who would bring something different to the papacy.
:15:40. > :15:46.What they would do would be to try and focus attention far more on
:15:46. > :15:49.issues such as poverty in different parts of the world and the need for
:15:49. > :15:53.us all to pay far more attention to those parts of the world, rather
:15:53. > :15:59.than just Europe. I doubt if they Pope came from Africa that he would
:15:59. > :16:03.be a reformer when it came to sexual morality. People who are
:16:03. > :16:08.perhaps... Liberals outside the church to say it would be great to
:16:08. > :16:12.have an African pope, might rue the fact that they get one for those
:16:12. > :16:17.reasons. However, I do think that celibacy could be something that
:16:17. > :16:26.they will discuss in terms of priests. If you have a church like
:16:26. > :16:30.a Catholic church where the priest does masses and people leave the
:16:30. > :16:34.priesthood to get married, I think there is a massive problem, so they
:16:34. > :16:39.will think about whether celibacy is a problem that too many people
:16:39. > :16:43.can't adhere to it. It is bizarre how much attention we give to this.
:16:43. > :16:49.We are one of the most secular countries in the world, the reason
:16:49. > :16:55.census showed we were even less religiously minded, yet the BBC
:16:55. > :16:58.show was as endless images of adoring Catholics in Rome, whoever
:16:58. > :17:05.the Pope is they will love, adore and worship him, they will weep
:17:05. > :17:09.when he goes or when he dies. Acres and acres of coverage. Why? This is
:17:09. > :17:15.an interesting, fascinating, Byzantine, riveting process, but
:17:15. > :17:22.does it matter to most of us most of that time? Not at all. It is the
:17:22. > :17:26.visuals. I heard somebody in the Vatican admit that they had really
:17:26. > :17:30.carefully choreographed the whole business of the day of the
:17:30. > :17:37.resignation, and even at one point he said it was like one of
:17:37. > :17:43.Fellini's films. The church wants to prove itself as being more
:17:43. > :17:49.relevant to people following it, then I suggest they might switch
:17:49. > :17:54.from putting the black smoke out to actually treating the name of the
:17:54. > :17:59.new cardinal! It could reach a lot of people at the same time.
:17:59. > :18:06.pictures are not as good, though! Not the impact, right? I was
:18:06. > :18:11.reading a comment by a very high up Russia nor coup. Six -- Russian
:18:11. > :18:16.Orthodox priest. The two churches for their differences, they are
:18:16. > :18:21.very conservative about themselves and everything... But not celibacy,
:18:21. > :18:25.very important. The comment that the Russian Orthodox made was that
:18:25. > :18:30.the resignation of the Pope Emeritus showed that the Church is
:18:30. > :18:34.able to regenerate itself. It will be interesting to see what this
:18:34. > :18:39.regeneration means. This one will run and run!
:18:39. > :18:42.Dumb and arbitrary is how President Obama described the $85 billion of
:18:42. > :18:46.spending cuts which came into effect in the United States on
:18:46. > :18:50.Friday evening. You could say that describes American politicians, to
:18:50. > :18:53.have. These automatic cuts were never meant to take effect, a
:18:53. > :18:58.prospect so awful it could inspire Democrats and Republicans to
:18:58. > :19:02.compromise. They don't come into effect all at once there it is more
:19:02. > :19:07.of these slope on a fiscal cliff, but the IMF reckons it will carve
:19:08. > :19:12.at least 0.5% of a growth rate of 2%. Meanwhile, Europe has
:19:12. > :19:17.introduced a tax on financial transactions. How dumb as President
:19:17. > :19:21.Obama been to allow the situation to come to this? It is like
:19:21. > :19:26.watching somebody holding a gun to their head and saying, I will mardy
:19:26. > :19:30.Biscay, and if I do, I will shoot myself, then not eating their cake
:19:30. > :19:38.and shooting themselves or something, it is extraordinary. --
:19:38. > :19:48.I am not going to eat this cake. It shows how determined the
:19:48. > :19:49.
:19:49. > :19:51.Republicans are not to accept a democratic situation. We have also
:19:51. > :19:57.seen they are more willing to accept radical defence cuts, the
:19:57. > :20:01.defence cuts are the largest in the sequester. More willing to accept
:20:01. > :20:08.that than the closing of tax loopholes on the ridge, which is an
:20:08. > :20:15.extraordinary admission arm apart. -- tax loopholes on the rich. Obama
:20:15. > :20:19.has gone along with the austerity agenda, he has not stood up to this
:20:19. > :20:23.the new economics which has been destructive for both the US and
:20:23. > :20:27.Europe. When austerity is causing so much pain in Europe, when there
:20:27. > :20:31.is the beginning of a real groundswell against it, not just
:20:31. > :20:37.literally on the ground but among politicians, Obama has failed to
:20:37. > :20:42.stand up against this and that is a significant thing. Do you find that
:20:42. > :20:46.at all surprising, Dmitry, when you know how the economy has dominated
:20:46. > :20:49.endless programmes in this series, endless news coverage, it has made
:20:49. > :20:55.everybody so gloomy, yet politicians are apparently still
:20:55. > :20:59.making decisions which make it that much harder to overcome the effect?
:20:59. > :21:03.When the agreement was made about this particular situation, the
:21:03. > :21:10.sequester, the cuts were constructed in such a brutal way
:21:10. > :21:14.that politicians were almost made to agree about something. That says
:21:14. > :21:19.something. People don't really care about what is happening as long as
:21:19. > :21:24.it has direct effect to their own livelihoods, right? From a global
:21:24. > :21:27.perspective, given that America was imported two big wars and that was
:21:28. > :21:34.largely one of the reasons why the deficit has been counted in
:21:34. > :21:38.trillions of dollars, a sum of money which has to be explained, I
:21:38. > :21:44.think the defence cuts from an outsider's perspective might not be
:21:44. > :21:49.bad for America. One aircraft carrier less or more, who really
:21:49. > :21:53.cares? It is all about the economy, whether it has a direct effect on
:21:53. > :21:57.the economy and people's jobs. Polly, the IMF thinks that these
:21:57. > :22:02.cuts will have an effect, meanwhile European politicians are arguing
:22:02. > :22:07.over whether or not to have a financial transaction tax. It is
:22:07. > :22:11.just making up that much harder to improve the situation? There is a
:22:11. > :22:20.real and deepening rift. We talked before about political instability
:22:20. > :22:24.around the world, but the rift between right and left to... It is
:22:24. > :22:29.becoming ungovernable. It will be interesting to see what the German
:22:29. > :22:34.elections produce. We'll look at its Ali Dizaei and the deep
:22:34. > :22:40.emotional divide between the two sites. -- we'll look at Italy and
:22:41. > :22:45.the emotional divide. In Britain we are doing it on our own. We are not
:22:45. > :22:50.in the eurozone. We have chosen to do this. There is an increasingly
:22:50. > :22:54.strong sense that this is the wrong path. We are back to the 1930s. A
:22:54. > :22:57.lot of the consensus of economists who went along with it in the
:22:57. > :23:01.beginning in 2010 when the Government came into power are
:23:01. > :23:06.changing their mind. The IMF is saying that stimulus is needed. We
:23:06. > :23:12.are going to look back at this as an absolutely classic Keynesian
:23:12. > :23:18.casebook moment when the consensus was desperately wrong. Of course,
:23:18. > :23:23.the Tea Party movement and the Republicans affected by that are
:23:23. > :23:28.driving the whole emotional agenda to say we must have public cuts,
:23:28. > :23:32.only the private sector can save us. Catharine, have we got in our own
:23:32. > :23:38.minds the big picture of what we want out a very economy and how we
:23:38. > :23:44.want people to behave, the ethics of the finances -- finance system
:23:44. > :23:49.given the problems we apparently got from it? I think people have
:23:49. > :23:53.been terribly disillusioned by what they have learned about the way
:23:53. > :23:58.businesses conducted themselves, the way banks behaved and the way
:23:58. > :24:04.politicians behaved as well. There certainly felt a while ago like
:24:04. > :24:10.there was perhaps a moment coming where people wanted a more ethical
:24:10. > :24:14.form of business to develop. Now I think people are so worried about
:24:14. > :24:18.how war austerity will impact on them it is almost as if people
:24:18. > :24:24.moved away a bit from the really important conversation about
:24:24. > :24:30.whether we can, in the long term, do something to improve the way we
:24:30. > :24:33.run business. Now it is much more about whether my job will go or not.
:24:33. > :24:37.Even the reflections that people have are much more short-term. I
:24:37. > :24:42.was very disturbed to read about the cuts in America, they sound
:24:42. > :24:47.rather similar to hear. This sort of things that will gold is their
:24:47. > :24:53.version of Sure Start, which will affect poor cat -- poor families
:24:53. > :24:57.with services for pre-school children. A million public workers
:24:57. > :25:03.are being laid off, unpaid, from the first of April. That is quite
:25:03. > :25:08.scary. This is the same thing that the Greek government has tried to
:25:08. > :25:13.do. The Americans are doing this willingly because they can't sort
:25:13. > :25:18.out their politics, it is as if in Europe politics as being completely
:25:18. > :25:23.derailed by the economic collapse and in America politics is being --
:25:23. > :25:30.is derailing the economy. It is almost growing -- only going at
:25:30. > :25:34.1.5%, but the Europeans that sounds fantastic. We think the Italian
:25:34. > :25:40.constitution is bad, the American constitution is dysfunctional. The
:25:40. > :25:44.American president has no part whatsoever, madness. At least under
:25:44. > :25:49.European constitutions, one way or another, people have to form
:25:49. > :25:56.coalitions. That brings us back to where we started the programme, in