:00:03. > :00:13.the top of the hour. Now on BBC News, Dateline London with Gavin
:00:13. > :00:32.
:00:32. > :00:34.London. Pakistan goes to the poles for the first ever successful
:00:34. > :00:41.transition from one civilian government to another in its 66 year
:00:41. > :00:45.history. David Cameron and Vladimir Putin are meeting to talk about
:00:45. > :00:50.Syria. Our guests today are the Pakistani writer Shahed Sadullah,
:00:50. > :00:53.Dmitry Shishkin of BBC Global News, Yasmin Alibhai Brown of the
:00:53. > :00:59.Independent and John Fisher Burns of the New York Times. Very good to see
:00:59. > :01:03.you all. The political fate of the 180 million people in Pakistan is
:01:03. > :01:08.important not just for the region, for Afghanistan and India, but also
:01:08. > :01:11.for the world. A stable, democratic Pakistan has proved elusive, and if
:01:11. > :01:16.this election marked a transition between one democratically elected
:01:16. > :01:20.government and another, it will be a landmark. So, what is at stake in a
:01:20. > :01:23.country which, frustrating for its citizens, has seen so much
:01:23. > :01:28.terrorism, violence and under development by Jim at this has been
:01:28. > :01:38.a pretty good election in terms of the turnout... Yes, but not in terms
:01:38. > :01:43.of the violence, unfortunately. Yesterday, the Taliban gave out a
:01:44. > :01:47.press release saying that they would attack, and that they would
:01:47. > :01:52.specially appoints suicide bombers to attack people going to the
:01:52. > :01:56.poles, at specific polling stations. In spite of that, in spite of the
:01:56. > :02:02.fact that the temperature there is around 35 Celsius, in spite of all
:02:02. > :02:07.of that, to have a turnout of about 60% - the election commission hopes
:02:07. > :02:13.it might even go up to 80%, which might be a bit too optimistic, but
:02:13. > :02:18.even 60% is a direct link, I would think. If you had those elections in
:02:18. > :02:25.those conditions in the UK, it would not be 6%. You are clearly quite
:02:25. > :02:29.proud of it. Absolutely. It is not just the 60%. If you look at some of
:02:29. > :02:35.the queues which are in existence at polling stations, people waiting to
:02:35. > :02:40.vote, there are ladies in designer sunglasses and handbags, you would
:02:40. > :02:43.never see that class of people in a polling station, ever! Duggleby will
:02:43. > :02:49.get onto some of the more difficult issues in a moment, but what do you
:02:49. > :02:56.think of what is going on? It must feel like a new dawn. The absence of
:02:56. > :03:02.the military, I think this time they have really kept out of it, am I
:03:02. > :03:08.right? There are 75,000 troops who are there to ensure security.
:03:08. > :03:14.they do not want to come into play. And that is a big thing, to see so
:03:14. > :03:19.many women, under those conditions, it just lifts your heart, and then
:03:19. > :03:24.you begin to fear for them, you begin to think, is it going to do
:03:24. > :03:28.what they really so crave for, some security, some stability,
:03:28. > :03:38.electricity and gas and water? ! The basics, education... Will it come to
:03:38. > :03:38.
:03:39. > :03:45.something? John, what do you think? I have seen Haggis Danny elections,
:03:45. > :03:52.and this turnout is astonishing. -- Pakistani elections. You wonder,
:03:52. > :03:55.will the result this time be different? The sad story, as you
:03:55. > :03:59.know far better than I, is that democratically elected governments
:03:59. > :04:06.have failed Pakistan Time and time again, to the point that many
:04:06. > :04:10.Pakistanis at the time of the military takeovers, and the military
:04:10. > :04:13.has governed that country for not far short of its history, I believe,
:04:13. > :04:17.have been at least initially popular, or at least have had
:04:17. > :04:21.considerable support, so the question is, is it going to be any
:04:21. > :04:26.different this time? A Turkish friend of mine once said, rather
:04:26. > :04:36.wisely, the problem in Turki had been with military takeovers that it
:04:36. > :04:45.
:04:45. > :04:51.in front lies is an entire nation. -- it infantilises an entire nation.
:04:51. > :04:54.Yes, I do not mean to sanction what the military has done. Only to say
:04:54. > :04:59.that at the initial point of takeover, they have had people in
:04:59. > :05:06.the streets, because people were so disillusioned. So I think the
:05:06. > :05:09.question again is, will this additional turnout proved to be a
:05:09. > :05:19.turning point? Will there be a new kind of government, or will it be
:05:19. > :05:21.
:05:21. > :05:26.the same old same old? In the past seven years, we have not been
:05:26. > :05:30.receiving lots of good news from Pakistan. From a global perspective,
:05:30. > :05:35.Pakistan almost became a candidate to join the list of failed states.
:05:35. > :05:39.And you would think, if the government does not control large
:05:39. > :05:45.parts of the country, and the Taliban runs wild and all the rest
:05:45. > :05:50.of it, I am not surprised by the popular response to the elections,
:05:50. > :05:54.which effectively, is about change, about the change in the lives of
:05:54. > :05:59.normal people. It is exactly that. What you were saying, about
:05:59. > :06:03.education and the rights of women, one of the most populous countries
:06:03. > :06:07.in the world needs to sort itself out. It could be, in democratic
:06:07. > :06:11.terms, quite messy, because nobody can predict what might happen,
:06:11. > :06:17.nobody knows what Imran Khan's party might do. But what do you think will
:06:17. > :06:26.be the drift, the message, if it is a message of change? I think it is
:06:27. > :06:33.changed to a system in which merit plays a greater part in all avenues
:06:33. > :06:36.of decision-making. That means corruption going down, that means
:06:36. > :06:43.priority being given to the right things, like education, health and
:06:43. > :06:52.power. And yes, it is true, the outcome may be a bit messy, because
:06:52. > :06:55.there are more than 2600 candidates, an average of almost ten
:06:55. > :06:59.candidates per seat. There has been a high turnout, and it is expected
:06:59. > :07:03.that a high turnout would favour Imran Khan. One hopes very much that
:07:03. > :07:10.that is the case, because there is absolutely no doubt in most people's
:07:10. > :07:14.minds about Imran's honesty, sincerity and unqualified commitment
:07:14. > :07:18.to Pakistan, which is a lot more than you can say for many other
:07:18. > :07:24.politicians. But he is not very liberal, and he does not believe in
:07:24. > :07:30.a secular state, am I right? Because those are the people the telly
:07:30. > :07:35.Taliban has targeted. This business about liberal and conservative is in
:07:35. > :07:40.Pakistan is decided on the basis of one question, which is, do you think
:07:40. > :07:44.this war against terrorism is our war? Those who say yes, it is our
:07:44. > :07:48.war, are defined as the Liberals, and those who say no joke... That is
:07:48. > :07:53.not fair. Some of the Liberals are killed, it has been a very tough
:07:53. > :07:58.time for them. It is nothing to do with that. Most Pakistanis agree, as
:07:58. > :08:01.I do, that the drone attacks, and the unfairness of using Pakistan as
:08:01. > :08:10.a kind of satellite for US policy, is wrong, but it is about the rights
:08:10. > :08:13.of women, about the fact that you should not do this to a state even
:08:13. > :08:19.one which is largely much limb, that it should be a secular state, with
:08:19. > :08:22.equal rights for all. -- largely Muslim. You will not hear anything
:08:22. > :08:29.from most people I think on that basis. The truth is that
:08:29. > :08:33.unfortunately, for many, many years, Pakistan has veered to the right.
:08:33. > :08:38.All political parties stand at a certain place. The differences are
:08:38. > :08:44.there, but it is all very much to the right of centre partial my
:08:44. > :08:50.experience of the Islamic world is that for us in the West to wish on
:08:50. > :08:57.them a secular state, however desirable we might see it, is simply
:08:57. > :09:07.unrealistic. I defer to you, both of you, because you grew up in, if I
:09:07. > :09:09.
:09:09. > :09:14.may say so, in Muslim families. But it seems to me that Islam, as a
:09:14. > :09:19.faith, it is so fundamental in these countries. But Turki is a good
:09:19. > :09:28.example, they have still maintained the idea that the state is not
:09:28. > :09:33.pushing a faith. The creation of Pakistan by, in my view, one of the
:09:33. > :09:39.greatest secular leaders. People misunderstand secular, they think it
:09:39. > :09:49.is atheism, but it is not. It is only saying the public space has to
:09:49. > :09:51.
:09:51. > :09:55.be neutral. With all due respect, I do not think that is concerning most
:09:55. > :09:59.of the people in Pakistan. This is a country with huge unemployment,
:09:59. > :10:03.where you get electricity for barely six hours a day, where there is no
:10:03. > :10:08.guarantee of pure drinking water. Education... These are things which
:10:08. > :10:12.are the top of people's minds. where has all the money gone? We
:10:12. > :10:17.know where it went, we know where it went under Benazir Bhutto and her
:10:17. > :10:21.father, and Nawaz Sharif. These people who have preached the virtues
:10:21. > :10:26.of the secular state have looted the state and the country, which is one
:10:26. > :10:32.of the reasons why the politicians have been so discredited. I wanted
:10:32. > :10:36.to suggest that we see several Pakistans from outside. We see drone
:10:36. > :10:40.attacks, we hear about Taliban attacks, we hear about religious
:10:40. > :10:44.extremism, but we see a great deal of aspiration, we see Mullally use
:10:44. > :10:50.of site and her friends, prepared to risk their lives for the education
:10:50. > :10:55.of young women. It is this balance of power. It is exactly the same in
:10:55. > :11:03.some of the newly liberated Arab countries. There was this optimism.
:11:03. > :11:10.It is not true to say that the secular belief is only about this.
:11:10. > :11:15.But education - where are we going to end up with education? If the
:11:15. > :11:18.Taliban is determining so much in this election, will this attack he
:11:18. > :11:22.just the beginning of the negation of education for girls off to be
:11:22. > :11:32.fair, I do not think there is any mainstream party in Pakistan which
:11:32. > :11:32.
:11:32. > :11:34.says girls should not be educated. In fact, the basis of the Taliban's
:11:34. > :11:39.opposition to these elections is because they are saying, this is
:11:39. > :11:42.part of an infidel culture, democracy. There should not be any
:11:42. > :11:49.such thing as democracy. And it is on that basis that they are
:11:49. > :11:52.attacking this. In spite of that, if you have a turnout of 60%, and if
:11:52. > :12:02.there was no fear of actual life, I am certain it would have been
:12:02. > :12:03.
:12:03. > :12:08.pushing 90%. Does he negotiate with the Taliban? Yes, he does, but that
:12:08. > :12:12.does not mean... I want to move on to the alleged use of chemical
:12:12. > :12:15.weapons in Syria, which was supposed to be a game changer. David Cameron
:12:15. > :12:18.and Vladimir Putin have been at pains to suggest that something
:12:19. > :12:26.might be able to be done to help bring the conflict to an end. This
:12:26. > :12:30.was a very strange meeting of minds. It was everything, even from the
:12:30. > :12:33.picture to how they related to each other, in terms of the gestures and
:12:33. > :12:43.facial features, it is bizarre. Not only the relationship between
:12:43. > :12:45.
:12:45. > :12:49.Britain and Russia, which is not at its highest, since 2006, but to be
:12:49. > :12:58.fair, nothing new came out of the meeting. We have not learned any
:12:58. > :13:01.details about the proposed international conference on Syria, I
:13:01. > :13:08.put, useful, substantive and purposeful, that was how Cameron
:13:08. > :13:15.described it, but what does that mean? ! I do not understand.
:13:15. > :13:24.means we did not yes, maybe that is a good thing. Another thing I want
:13:24. > :13:27.to mention is that Britain, Russia and the United States are permanent
:13:27. > :13:31.numbers of the Security Council, they could have done something about
:13:31. > :13:35.Syria in the last two years, without 80,000 people having been killed,
:13:35. > :13:42.but nothing has been done. So, in my opinion, strategically, they might
:13:42. > :13:48.agree, tactically, which is most important, they do not. Do you see
:13:48. > :13:54.any chance of Vladimir Putin abandoning President Assad? No, I do
:13:54. > :13:58.not think so at all. I was referring to some of the fates of some of the
:13:58. > :14:04.other Arab leaders during the Arab Spring, and I think that Russia is
:14:04. > :14:13.very anxious and nervous about what has been happening in that region
:14:13. > :14:16.generally, and about some powers removing our powers from power, be
:14:16. > :14:22.that as a popular revolt, or as part of a two year civil war, something
:14:22. > :14:25.which worries Russia a lot. So, I think fundamentally, Russia will
:14:25. > :14:29.potentially agree to some kind of peace negotiations, whatever, but
:14:29. > :14:35.with the fundamental thing that Russia should continue to be playing
:14:35. > :14:40.some part of that. How do you see this? One point of view is that
:14:40. > :14:43.actually, nothing will be done... When you introduced the topic, you
:14:43. > :14:53.talked about chemical weapons, and it seems to me there is a metaphor
:14:53. > :14:54.
:14:54. > :14:59.there. As much as we have been told, the tests that have been done in the
:14:59. > :15:04.UK and other evidence is very, very uncertain, even uncertain as to who,
:15:04. > :15:07.if indeed nerve gas has been used, which side used it. It seems to me
:15:07. > :15:12.that point in the direction of a more general conclusion, which is,
:15:12. > :15:15.there is something seismic going on across the Middle East - whether it
:15:15. > :15:18.was triggered by the American invasion of Iraq is something for
:15:18. > :15:23.history to decide, but there is no doubt that what is happening is
:15:23. > :15:27.something absolutely fundamental and, in my judgement, and I have
:15:27. > :15:30.spent quite a bit of time in these countries, it is beyond our
:15:31. > :15:36.management, even beyond our influence, save for one thing, urges
:15:36. > :15:41.the mitigation of the misery. That, we can do something about, not
:15:41. > :15:45.inside Syria, for the main, but outside Syria, 1 million referees,
:15:45. > :15:54.let's concentrate on that. I get nervous when I hear about chemical
:15:54. > :15:57.weapons, because that implies that any sort of intervention that we
:15:57. > :16:03.might make would have a military element to it. If there is one
:16:03. > :16:05.lesson at all from the last ten years, it is, don't get into that.
:16:05. > :16:14.Philip Hammond, the British Defence Secretary, repeats the fact that
:16:14. > :16:20.there were lessons from 2003 which we should learn. It is a situation
:16:20. > :16:23.where we can't leave alone and we can't intervene. There is a sense of
:16:23. > :16:28.helplessness. One of the genuine questions is what is this
:16:28. > :16:34.relationship between Russia and Assad?
:16:34. > :16:39.Arguably, Syria is the last friend Russia has in the middle east. They
:16:39. > :16:45.need to keep some kind of influence. That will be something quite
:16:45. > :16:55.important for Russia, to still be perceived as someone. I am taking a
:16:55. > :16:56.
:16:56. > :17:00.wider view on the role of Russia, it has been part of the quartet forum
:17:01. > :17:04.since its inception. Has anything been done between Israel and
:17:04. > :17:12.Palestinian Territories? I do not think so. I actually think the
:17:12. > :17:17.important thing is, if both sides, all sides want to end violence, why
:17:17. > :17:22.can't they do it through the Security Council? The fact they
:17:22. > :17:26.cannot... I was at a conference, where the
:17:26. > :17:32.Turkish Prime Minister spoke, very passionately about what was
:17:32. > :17:36.happening in Syria, but more importantly, we need to change the
:17:36. > :17:43.Security Council. We cannot have this small club deciding on world
:17:43. > :17:48.affairs. A club which disempowered the great
:17:48. > :17:51.powers of 15 equals, would be any more likely to agree?
:17:51. > :17:58.It would be better than this narrow group.
:17:58. > :18:01.A final word. The West has shown a spectacular
:18:01. > :18:07.ability in the middle east to jump from the frying pan into the fire,
:18:07. > :18:12.they are doing it in Syria. They have got the wrong end of the state.
:18:12. > :18:22.The main force in Syria we should be looking at Fort is not Bashar
:18:22. > :18:25.
:18:25. > :18:35.al-Assad, but the main opposition, not even 18 months after, the main
:18:35. > :19:06.
:19:06. > :19:08.opposition to him. The people from the Free Syrian He was joined by the
:19:08. > :19:12.former Defence Secretary Michael Portillo. And on the Conservative
:19:12. > :19:15.Right there are moves to demand an early referendum on the EU. Is this
:19:15. > :19:18.realistic politics? And how helpful is this to the Prime Minister David
:19:18. > :19:22.Cameron who wants to renegotiate terms of British membership?
:19:22. > :19:28.Do you think actually Britain getting out of the EU is realistic
:19:28. > :19:34.politics and could happen? No, it is not realistic politics,
:19:34. > :19:39.that is the problem. I think now, the country is in a sense of high
:19:39. > :19:46.fever. There is no rational debate about Europe any more. It was very
:19:46. > :19:53.touching yesterday, a Tory, Philip... I have forgotten his
:19:53. > :19:58.name, Peter Luff, he said, there are Tories in his party who are
:19:58. > :20:05.pro-Europe, but it is a love that dare not speak its name. That is so
:20:05. > :20:09.sad for them! The nation has gone mad. Because of this UKIP thing
:20:09. > :20:19.which is interesting. They keep talking about 25%, the media has a
:20:19. > :20:20.
:20:20. > :20:27.lot of blame on this. 25%, in the last election. Actually, it was 25%
:20:27. > :20:33.of a 31% turnout. So, 7.7%. All the political parties are now feeling,
:20:33. > :20:38.we have to be more like UKIP. So I think we will get a referendum
:20:38. > :20:43.sooner than later. We will get out of Europe. We will have to live with
:20:43. > :20:50.the consequences. I do not see how anybody in their
:20:50. > :20:57.right mind can talk of leaving Europe. Half of all foreign
:20:57. > :21:02.investment in the UK comes from the EU, about �365 billion, not a figure
:21:02. > :21:08.to be sneezed at. 40% of Euro denominational trading takes place
:21:08. > :21:13.from London. They talk about diversifying British trade to the
:21:13. > :21:19.other emerging powers. At present, Britain's total trade with China,
:21:19. > :21:23.Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa is one fifth of its trade
:21:23. > :21:33.with the EU. If you look at the figures, you can't imagine how
:21:33. > :21:33.
:21:33. > :21:39.anyone in their right minds can think of that. A knee-jerk reaction.
:21:39. > :21:44.I think it is dangerous to be so dismissive of what is really a very
:21:44. > :21:48.considerable block of opinion, like it or not. UKIP uses the words,
:21:49. > :21:56.ordinary people. The people in the pub, if you well. I have spent some
:21:56. > :22:02.time in Boston in Lincolnshire, and in Cambridge, where UKIP has been on
:22:02. > :22:06.a surge. This is a real, strong body of opinion. The electoral
:22:06. > :22:10.calculation is could be made by any winning or losing party anywhere
:22:10. > :22:14.because the turnout in this country is so poor.
:22:14. > :22:22.They have not been subjected to the kind of really quite probing
:22:22. > :22:26.interviews that... They have been given this free card. It is all
:22:26. > :22:34.emotional. About not wanting immigrants, not liking Europe. The
:22:34. > :22:40.minimum wage. I don't want to be a propagator for
:22:40. > :22:45.UKIP but one thing I found interesting walking the streets of
:22:45. > :22:49.Boston, was to find that the voice of the ordinary man as far as I
:22:49. > :22:59.could determine it was not against immigrants per se, these were people
:22:59. > :23:27.
:23:27. > :23:32.who said they voted for UKIP. They were saying, let us the tinge of
:23:32. > :23:42.racism is not always... The general tone of conversation
:23:42. > :23:43.
:23:43. > :23:49.needs to be, , more constructive about Europe. Not in the studio. I
:23:49. > :23:54.think it is all about... I came to Britain in late 2000, on a working
:23:54. > :23:59.Visa. Having qualified to stay here and work to contribute, we have been
:23:59. > :24:04.interviewing the guy at Manchester University who has won the Nobel
:24:04. > :24:11.Peace Prize for physics, here's a Russian. He said the knee-jerk
:24:11. > :24:19.reaction of this talk is the better qualified people stop coming into
:24:19. > :24:26.the country. Ultimately, it is not about immigration. It is about
:24:26. > :24:30.Britain being an island, it is easy for us to get away from Europe. In
:24:30. > :24:33.2001 and 2003 in the economic upturn, nobody talked about this. It
:24:33. > :24:39.is related to the economic situation.
:24:39. > :24:44.Let me put to a point not the arguments about immigration, but the
:24:44. > :24:50.big picture. Surely, this is most British people have thought they'd
:24:50. > :24:53.joined a good economic club but actually what they have joined is a
:24:53. > :24:56.process towards European integration. While they are happy
:24:56. > :25:01.with the economic sport Lee understand the questions about jobs,
:25:01. > :25:05.they don't like the process. They do not want to be part of the euro.
:25:05. > :25:12.That is a legitimate argument. This is where I do agree with David
:25:12. > :25:16.Cameron. If you are in this process, you can influence it. You
:25:16. > :25:22.can say what Britain wants. In that sense, he is right, you don't just
:25:22. > :25:27.walk out. It is not true, Europe has always been a problem in a sense,
:25:28. > :25:32.from Ted Heath. It is an English problem of course. A very English
:25:32. > :25:39.thing. To look at this from a positive
:25:39. > :25:44.point of view, the process Cameron has set out, a referendum by 2017.
:25:44. > :25:49.In effect, a national debate and negotiation in Europe, might just
:25:49. > :25:52.resolve this in a way which will leave a majority of people
:25:52. > :25:57.satisfied. We may be able to negotiate.