:00:05. > :00:15.the hour including the latest on Nelson Mandela. Now it is time for
:00:15. > :00:36.
:00:36. > :00:40.Syria, has it reached a turning point? The demonstrations in Turkey,
:00:40. > :00:48.is Taksim Square the new Terrier Square. And Britain's Labour Party
:00:48. > :00:56.says it will cap welfare will stop Alex Dean joins me, Abdel Bari
:00:56. > :01:01.Atwan, Dmitry Shishkin and Emily Kallis scanner. Good to see you. The
:01:01. > :01:06.forces of President Assad triumphed this week in the battle for... Does
:01:06. > :01:13.this mark a turning point in the crisis and does it embroil Lebanon
:01:13. > :01:17.on even more deeply? Do you see this as a very important success for
:01:17. > :01:26.President Assad? After two depressing years of President Assad
:01:26. > :01:36.where he lost half of his country to the rebels, the victory is a
:01:36. > :01:37.
:01:37. > :01:41.political boost to President Assad. We are seeking a political
:01:41. > :01:46.settlement for the conflict in Syria. It was depressing for him and
:01:46. > :01:52.he was smiling and he was extremely happy hoping that he will gain more
:01:52. > :01:57.success, more victories and other battles. He is sending his troops to
:01:57. > :02:04.Aleppo, to other parts of Syria, hoping to gain more grounds. When he
:02:04. > :02:08.goes to Geneva, to the conference, he will be in a strong bargaining
:02:08. > :02:15.position. In terms of the wider conflict and the use of Hezbollah
:02:15. > :02:19.are in Syria and the fears in Lebanon that they will revisit the
:02:19. > :02:28.Civil War, what do you make of that? The conflict was a turning
:02:28. > :02:35.point. Has the law has a huge experience in Street Wars. That is
:02:35. > :02:40.why Assad managed to gain success. 2000 fighters made a difference in
:02:40. > :02:50.this war. Previously most of the wars, the Syrian RB fought against
:02:50. > :02:53.
:02:53. > :02:57.the rebels and loss. -- the Syrian army. What will happen in Lebanon is
:02:57. > :03:02.very crucial. The Saudi Embassy in Lebanon issued a statement urging
:03:02. > :03:10.all the Saudi people to go back to their country immediately because
:03:10. > :03:14.Lebanon could be a very dangerous place in the coming days. Has below
:03:14. > :03:24.are intervening could be counter-productive for the Lebanese
:03:24. > :03:36.
:03:36. > :03:41.this humanitarian capacity fee and the UN saying they need millions of
:03:41. > :03:51.dollars and access. We are spectators and IM aware of the
:03:51. > :03:51.
:03:51. > :03:56.expertise at and danger. -- I am aware. It wasn't just a moral or
:03:56. > :04:01.political victory for President Assad, it was a strategic one. It
:04:01. > :04:06.was so close to the border and it is the obvious place for President
:04:06. > :04:12.Assad to get material and men and manpower from Hezbollah. It clears
:04:12. > :04:17.the way for him to take on Hommes. Thirdly, it sits between Damascus
:04:17. > :04:24.and the coast. For some time President Assad has not been able to
:04:24. > :04:28.access with ease the waterway. The last point is that setting aside
:04:28. > :04:38.Western criticism, there are dangers that this can backfire, this
:04:38. > :04:38.
:04:38. > :04:42.alliance with has below. The Israelis maintain that only briefly
:04:42. > :04:46.the rebels seized the crossing point in the cease-fire line between
:04:46. > :04:50.Israel and Syria. If those things are happening anti-war drugging in
:04:50. > :04:57.people from outside the conflict, you attract the active interest of
:04:57. > :05:05.the many people who are anti-Hezbollah. Turkey has been
:05:05. > :05:11.dragged in. You lived in Damascus for a while. How do you think this
:05:11. > :05:18.is being viewed by the government in Istanbul? They have their own
:05:18. > :05:26.problems. The Turkish government is part of the problem. Turkey already
:05:26. > :05:35.asked Assad to step down. They have to in -- increased the public
:05:35. > :05:42.pressure against the Assad regime. From the point of Turkish people,
:05:42. > :05:52.there is no other option. It has two end that way? From the Turkish
:05:52. > :05:53.
:05:53. > :06:03.perspective, it doesn't... It is in terms of political, Turkey is
:06:03. > :06:09.becoming polarised by Simeon conflict. The Syrian conflict is
:06:09. > :06:14.polarising opinion in Turkey. If Assad goes, that is one step but the
:06:14. > :06:18.real question is what would follow? We have five different groups of the
:06:18. > :06:26.opposition with slightly different agendas, some of which note Turkish
:06:26. > :06:36.government could accept. Turkey carries on to be the voice of the
:06:36. > :06:44.SUNY Muslims. It is more important to see who will be close to the
:06:44. > :06:51.political agenda? One of the things that often happens in these
:06:51. > :06:55.discussions is the finger-pointing of Russia. Putin has been
:06:55. > :07:00.consistently immovable mess. He is one of political leaders who if
:07:00. > :07:10.stuck to a particular point will stick to it for as long as it takes.
:07:10. > :07:13.Syria and Assad was one of those points. Militarily, Russia was
:07:13. > :07:18.supporting Syria quite significantly. We heard about the
:07:18. > :07:24.anti-missile defences that have already been deployed to Syria. Some
:07:24. > :07:27.sources says it was contradictory. The fact that Russia keep supporting
:07:27. > :07:34.the government in Damascus irrespective of the situation on the
:07:34. > :07:40.ground, but preparing the country to retaliate against the potential of
:07:40. > :07:48.attention -- potential invasion. Putin cannot not support Assad
:07:48. > :07:51.because there are repercussions for the human side. I see that point.
:07:51. > :07:56.Whatever we think of Russia's motives, they have an argument which
:07:56. > :08:04.is that the opposition can -- contains some unpleasant people and
:08:04. > :08:12.there maybe blowback. That is why Russia's was ambiguous about the
:08:12. > :08:18.political settlement saying that it needs to be, you remember, they
:08:18. > :08:23.talked about political settlement but disagree. Is there any chance
:08:23. > :08:33.that Geneva will do much to cool this? I don't believe so. As a
:08:33. > :08:41.victory, this will make Assad in a stronger position and believe him --
:08:41. > :08:47.believe in himself. He thinks he can win now? He believes he can win and
:08:47. > :08:53.he enjoys the full support of Russia and Iran. The position, they are not
:08:53. > :08:59.going to Geneva and less Assad will step down. I wondered how you feel,
:08:59. > :09:03.we will come onto Turkey in a moment, when you hear the stories of
:09:03. > :09:12.what's happening to the children come you see this great country
:09:12. > :09:20.killing its children and falling apart. There is an underestimation
:09:20. > :09:26.of Assad's power. They thought it would collapse like Tunisia. This
:09:26. > :09:31.wasn't the case. I was in Egypt's three days ago and I met President
:09:31. > :09:41.more and he told me that he enjoyed the support of the Army and his own
:09:41. > :09:47.people. We cannot say to him that he should go. He is completely
:09:47. > :09:57.different and also he has a strong head. He is not easy to be pushed
:09:57. > :09:57.
:09:57. > :10:02.out of power. His people feel those who support and will see reprisals.
:10:02. > :10:07.The protests over Istanbul's Taksim Square becomes more significant and
:10:07. > :10:10.a direct challenge to the Prime Minister with some comparing them to
:10:10. > :10:20.an old-fashioned sultan. What is going on in Turkey, why the
:10:20. > :10:21.
:10:21. > :10:26.discontents? It is a secular society and why has it given much
:10:27. > :10:31.prosperity? In terms of getting the army out of politics and having a
:10:31. > :10:41.flourish in democracy, what is going on? It is a turning point for Turkey
:10:41. > :10:53.
:10:53. > :11:02.as well. We see the Turkish Street. He managed to neutralise power.
:11:02. > :11:08.People feel frustrated by the recent process. They'll feel they are not
:11:08. > :11:14.represented well in the public and parliament and media. They went out
:11:14. > :11:24.and protested and it became a huge turning point of the Turkish
:11:24. > :11:29.politics. As you say, it is not just about a lovely park and a great
:11:29. > :11:33.square, Turkey is about something much bigger. Turkey now jails more
:11:33. > :11:43.journalists than any country in the world including China. That seems
:11:43. > :11:44.
:11:44. > :11:52.extraordinary. Turkey is the leading place for putting journalists in
:11:52. > :12:00.jail. They say they are behind bars which is more than China, Iran or
:12:00. > :12:03.Russia. If they are behind bars, the rest of the journalists in Turkey
:12:03. > :12:12.are scared because if they reported the wrong way, they might end up in
:12:12. > :12:22.jail. What has been going on in the streets, all across the country,
:12:22. > :12:23.
:12:23. > :12:29.they prefer to air the cooking programmes instead of showing the
:12:29. > :12:35.demonstrations. But why? Because many people are in jail and if they
:12:35. > :12:43.speak up they are phrased to lose their jobs. In 2009, the Turkish
:12:43. > :12:53.media company was fined $2.5 million. It becomes clear that you
:12:53. > :12:55.
:12:55. > :13:05.have two toe the line. Is this an antsy movement? His political party
:13:05. > :13:05.
:13:05. > :13:12.has won three elections. People are frustrated by how he runs the
:13:12. > :13:22.country. There are different opposition is coming together. They
:13:22. > :13:22.
:13:22. > :13:32.are increasingly concerned how he brings in his own beliefs on the
:13:32. > :13:39.country. Sometimes I feel as if we are discretion in Russia. It is a
:13:39. > :13:47.heavy-handed policy and total disregard to any public consultation
:13:47. > :13:57.about what country needs to grow. We are talking about the approach. He
:13:57. > :14:02.thinks he can do whatever he can. Another question which we might
:14:02. > :14:07.discuss is what happens in 2015 when he is meant to step down? There is
:14:07. > :14:12.talk about him changing constitution, moving from
:14:12. > :14:22.Parliamentary Republic to presidential republic. Now you are
:14:22. > :14:31.
:14:31. > :14:36.talking about Putin estimation mark -- Putin! . I think that red Square
:14:36. > :14:42.potentially will not be like that after two weeks of protests.
:14:42. > :14:47.around the Arab world, Turkey has been saying, look at democracy, the
:14:47. > :14:57.modern Islamic government, it works well in Turkey, maybe we should
:14:57. > :15:05.
:15:05. > :15:15.follow it. Turkey a role model because many people believe they can
:15:15. > :15:22.do it. -- Turkey was a role model. In Tunisia, they consider him as a
:15:22. > :15:29.leader, as inspiration to them. If there is a setback, definitely this
:15:29. > :15:39.will be reflected on the streets of eejit, Tunisia, Yerevan -- Yemen,
:15:39. > :15:41.
:15:41. > :15:49.Syria, everywhere. I was attending the conference six
:15:49. > :15:58.months ago, in an Kara, -- in an Kara, and by Minister Erdogan
:15:58. > :16:05.delivered his speech, and he was talking as a sultan. He was so
:16:05. > :16:12.confident that he was the man to bring back the Ottoman Empire. That
:16:12. > :16:21.is how I felt when I was there. People were not concerned about how
:16:21. > :16:30.he was elected. The country is totally undemocratic. There is a bit
:16:30. > :16:33.of the Ottoman Empire here. He seems to like that romanticism. We are a
:16:34. > :16:43.long way from Ataturk. This is a regime that talks about banning
:16:44. > :16:44.
:16:44. > :16:52.alcohol, and blurring it out on television. They put up signs in
:16:52. > :16:57.public places saying, be moral. If it is not culture wars, it is
:16:57. > :17:02.certainly culture skirmishes. Secularism is not on this
:17:02. > :17:04.government's agenda. But economic growth still is. They have had much
:17:04. > :17:10.faster growth than any other European country in the last ten
:17:10. > :17:18.years. The markets do not like the protests. There was a big dip before
:17:18. > :17:24.that. The fascinating thing for us is that we are used to nations
:17:24. > :17:30.either access thing the parcel -- accepting the parcel of Western
:17:30. > :17:33.goods, or not. What you do with a hybrid regime that embraces some of
:17:33. > :17:40.these things? That is the philosophical issue which is quite
:17:40. > :17:46.interesting. The reaction to the protest is just bullying. Ten a
:17:46. > :17:49.penny despots and repression. We have to hope that is not the line
:17:49. > :17:56.they go down. In terms of economic development,
:17:56. > :18:00.Taksim Square and building a new airport, a new canal for the
:18:00. > :18:05.Bosporus, these things which are driven through which might help the
:18:05. > :18:10.economy, the people object to them. There is no consensus. All of these
:18:10. > :18:17.projects are run without any consensus or any consultation. This
:18:17. > :18:24.is the first time that Turkish businessmen attended a
:18:24. > :18:32.demonstration. Some leading Turkish businessmen were on the march.
:18:32. > :18:36.this is where the perils are becoming so evident. The
:18:36. > :18:39.middle-class, the thinking class, the creative class, goes against the
:18:39. > :18:49.regime, which arguably has been providing all the nice things for
:18:49. > :18:52.
:18:52. > :19:00.them in the last 15 years. But I also think that other projects
:19:00. > :19:07.coming up over the next two years come to mind. There is a lot of
:19:07. > :19:12.discontent. Prime Minister Erdogan talked about internal and external
:19:12. > :19:19.conspiracy against him. I cannot exclude that, because the Minister
:19:19. > :19:23.Erdogan created a role model and we have to remember that he got a
:19:23. > :19:26.mandate and was elected three times. He achieved a miracle, an
:19:26. > :19:36.economic miracle for the country. We are always looking at third World
:19:36. > :19:37.
:19:37. > :19:44.countries. He made Turkey the 70th strongest economy in the world. We
:19:44. > :19:53.have to be fair to the man. He is under pressure from his
:19:53. > :19:59.constituents. Maybe he got it wrong, but there are definitely huge
:19:59. > :20:05.pressures from Syria, from Syrian supporters inside Turkey, Alawites,
:20:05. > :20:10.pressure from the Kurds, pressure from the West. We have to understand
:20:10. > :20:16.the man's situation. Of course there is pressure from Syria, there are
:20:16. > :20:19.400,000 refugees within Turkey. But I take the opposite point of view.
:20:19. > :20:29.If he pursues internet censorship and banned social media, what a
:20:29. > :20:32.
:20:32. > :20:41.terrible message it sends to moderate Islam. Maybe it's the case
:20:41. > :20:44.of, all present politicians' lies come to an end at some point.
:20:45. > :20:49.Regardless of what they have done in the past.
:20:49. > :20:55.We only have a funicular. Here at home, the British Labour Party has
:20:55. > :20:58.been in some trouble about what to do over welfare. The Welfare Party,
:20:58. > :21:05.not the Labour Party, as David Cameron sarcastically put it this
:21:05. > :21:13.week. Labour has been talking about capping welfare and being tough on
:21:13. > :21:21.spending. This is Labour positioning themselves for the next general
:21:21. > :21:29.election. I think we are in permanent campaign mode now. The
:21:29. > :21:33.campaigning has never stopped. If you combine a position which no
:21:33. > :21:35.government has an overall majority, with a fixed term parliament,
:21:35. > :21:42.everybody is constantly campaigning. You can even campaign against your
:21:42. > :21:50.coalition partners. That has certainly been happening. But Labour
:21:50. > :21:54.has to move on welfare. The Conservative policy on the welfare
:21:54. > :21:59.cap is the most popular policy, not just in this government, but since
:21:59. > :22:04.policy polling began. It is wildly popular, in a way that transcends
:22:04. > :22:09.party politics, and Labour is simply in the wrong position. And they have
:22:09. > :22:12.recognised that and they are trying to lance the boil. The scramble away
:22:12. > :22:16.from their position may be undignified, but Ed Miliband is
:22:16. > :22:20.doing the right thing when he seeks changes and get away from the
:22:20. > :22:24.traditional Labour position on welfare. Just as Tony Blair had to
:22:24. > :22:27.get away from the idea of Labour on spending in 1997, and just as David
:22:27. > :22:33.Cameron had to get away from the idea that the Tories could not be
:22:33. > :22:37.trusted on the NHS in 2010, Miliband have to lance the boil on welfare.
:22:37. > :22:42.Many viewers of your programme may not like it, but the Welfare Party
:22:42. > :22:49.is a great attack line, and it is working. And that is working within
:22:49. > :22:53.Labour. They get it. How do you see this? Ed Balls wants to be
:22:53. > :22:56.Chancellor of the Exchequer and he is saying that they are going to be
:22:56. > :23:00.tough on spending. They are putting the flesh on the bones of what their
:23:00. > :23:06.policies might be. Yes, but they do not reveal everything, because they
:23:06. > :23:11.are afraid that other parties might steal it. But they give a hint. They
:23:11. > :23:14.are changing and they are willing to borrow for the first time and to
:23:14. > :23:22.spend in the right direction. Also, they want to keep certain
:23:22. > :23:26.Conservative policies, especially the welfare state policies, like
:23:27. > :23:33.keeping child benefit policies as it is said that the rich do not get it.
:23:33. > :23:39.Wealthy pensioners, also, should not get the fuel subsidy. It seems they
:23:39. > :23:43.are adjusting their policies and they are trying to change and
:23:43. > :23:52.transform the image from a party which is overspending, accruing
:23:52. > :23:55.debts, to a party which understands the changes in the nation.
:23:55. > :23:59.politics, people try to draw distension is between each other,
:24:00. > :24:02.but behind the scenes, people know that on all parties welfare is
:24:02. > :24:09.broken. There is a degree of consensus that people don't talk
:24:09. > :24:14.about. That is exactly the point. People understand the economic
:24:14. > :24:17.situation the United Kingdom is in. Any party in power in the next ten
:24:17. > :24:22.years will need to tackle this. Everyone understands there is a
:24:22. > :24:32.question of how to tackle this long-term work listeners --
:24:32. > :24:33.
:24:33. > :24:37.unemployment. I understand, I lost my child benefit because of the
:24:37. > :24:41.salary cap, and it was absolutely fair. I did not have a sense of any
:24:41. > :24:48.kind of injustice. What I'm trying to say is that the devil is in the
:24:48. > :24:52.detail, which kind of policies he will pursue -- they will pursue.
:24:52. > :24:57.Everybody agrees we need to cut, but exactly what we need to cup is an
:24:57. > :25:00.interesting question. How do you see this? This is clearly the debate of
:25:00. > :25:05.the next election. What you do about the economy, welfare and getting
:25:05. > :25:15.people back into work? It is important in terms of the
:25:15. > :25:15.
:25:15. > :25:23.middle-class. What makes the UK middle-class, I think the problem is
:25:23. > :25:29.harder to tackle. It is almost impossible to have one thing to
:25:29. > :25:33.solve the problems. They should be specific. We have about 30 seconds
:25:33. > :25:36.left. Isn't it also true that behind-the-scenes, although the
:25:36. > :25:38.Conservatives are committed to not cutting universal benefits for
:25:38. > :25:44.old-age pensioners, many conservatives recognise that if a
:25:44. > :25:47.mistake? Yes, and I think the cuts will have to grow a bit because of
:25:47. > :25:51.the economic reality. On the other hand, Ed Balls refuses to admit that
:25:51. > :25:54.the Labour Party made mistakes in the past. The Tories will continue
:25:54. > :25:58.to paint them into the corner, because if you won't admit the