:00:02. > :00:12.We will have a full bulletin of news at the top of the hour, now it is
:00:12. > :00:32.
:00:32. > :00:37.London. The United States is to arm the Syrian rebels.
:00:37. > :00:44.Evan Cordes to the polls at the G8 summit has addresses tax avoidance
:00:44. > :00:47.Highlands agenda. -- Iran goes to the polls. My guests today are
:00:47. > :00:50.Thomas Kielinger of Die Welt. Polly Toynbee of The Guardian. Mina al
:00:50. > :00:54.Oraibi of Asharq al Awsat. And Brian O'Connell, who is an Irish
:00:54. > :00:58.journalist. The United States formally concluded
:00:58. > :01:03.this week what many have suspected. The Assad regime and Syria has used
:01:03. > :01:06.chemical weapons against its own people. The UN says at least 93,000
:01:06. > :01:10.people have died. The US is talking of arming the Syrian report is well
:01:10. > :01:18.Russia is arming the Government. Army faced with a conflict with no
:01:18. > :01:21.end in sight? In terms of this decision to say that we now think
:01:21. > :01:26.chemical weapons were used by the regime, what do you make of that?
:01:26. > :01:31.Will always be suspicions, firstly, after a rack about whether they have
:01:31. > :01:37.got it right and why they decided to save this week. WMD has a terrible
:01:37. > :01:41.ring to it, doesn't it? It is not perhaps entirely clear to people
:01:41. > :01:45.whether your children are being hit by rockets whether it is worse by
:01:45. > :01:49.gas rockets. Why that is a particular Red Line and they are
:01:49. > :01:52.also saying it is a small episode, I am not sure. I think the West is in
:01:52. > :01:58.a terrible state, as you say. After Iraq, there is such fear of
:01:58. > :02:03.intervening. After Afghanistan, ten years and not a lot to show for it.
:02:03. > :02:07.The appetite of the peoples in the West, whether in the US, Britain or
:02:07. > :02:10.anywhere else, is diminished. On the other hand, we look there and horror
:02:10. > :02:20.that the only people not being supported the of democracy. Weapons
:02:20. > :02:23.are piling in. Sunni, Shia, Assad and not the secularist Democrats.
:02:23. > :02:29.Are we going to leave them on arms? It is a difficult question. Nina,
:02:29. > :02:33.how do you think of the timing of this announcement that they are
:02:33. > :02:36.going to be arms for the rebels? think there are two clear reasons.
:02:36. > :02:41.One is what is going on on the ground. Everyone is getting arms and
:02:41. > :02:44.there was increasing pressure in Europe and on the US to feel they
:02:44. > :02:53.have done something. Somehow, it seems to be that arming is one way
:02:53. > :02:57.they can go. We see derision getting closer into a label and the
:02:57. > :03:02.possibility of fighting them. Also the fact that Hezbollah is now
:03:02. > :03:09.openly involved. The second is the G8. We have Cameron meeting Putin,
:03:09. > :03:14.Bama seeing Putin, and the pressure on Russia is that chemical weapons
:03:14. > :03:17.have been used. While I agree that people getting agreed by -- people
:03:17. > :03:21.getting killed by rockets or bullets is no worse than being gassed,
:03:21. > :03:24.however, the issue of chemical weapons instantly makes it an
:03:24. > :03:28.international security issue. They can press the Russians on that and
:03:28. > :03:33.get them to try to back the security council. I don't see it working but
:03:33. > :03:38.it is leverage. Do you think that the timing of the G8 is one reason,
:03:38. > :03:48.perhaps, but to say that they have chemical weapons, there are those
:03:48. > :03:51.
:03:51. > :03:54.that think it is a very hard-headed reason. That the fact that Hezbollah
:03:54. > :03:58.have won battles that the Obama administration which is very divided
:03:58. > :04:02.over what to do suddenly thought it would go Assad's way. Absolutely. I
:04:02. > :04:06.think there is a belief that military on the ground to that. Sad,
:04:06. > :04:11.and those that are supporting him, whether Hezbollah, domestically or
:04:11. > :04:16.others, still has the upper hand. They know that they have to treat
:04:16. > :04:19.this, and people keep talking about the military balance. However, to be
:04:19. > :04:23.honest, the sort of firms they are talking about still would not
:04:23. > :04:28.necessarily change the military balance. -- the sort of arms. There
:04:28. > :04:33.are too scared to put in a no-fly zone. It is not really a solution,
:04:33. > :04:36.as such, but is pushing a bounty. It is also telling the people fighting
:04:36. > :04:41.against Assad that we have the back. Most people are not convinced
:04:41. > :04:45.of that. Ryan, you don't foresee a coalition of the willing getting
:04:45. > :04:49.involved here and whatever, and getting around the UN by seeing that
:04:49. > :04:52.frankly this chemical weapons then change that completely? I don't
:04:52. > :04:58.think so. I don't think voters would want that. David Cameron has been
:04:58. > :05:01.saying, he has been more of the persuasion that we need to do
:05:01. > :05:05.something than Barack Obama but he has to get through a very difficult
:05:05. > :05:08.vote in the House of Commons. That is not going to be easy in either
:05:08. > :05:13.party, not just his own backbenchers. The chemical weapons,
:05:13. > :05:17.I am sure the Americans knew from the get go that this was being used.
:05:17. > :05:21.They know what is being going on in the ground. It was as convenient a
:05:21. > :05:26.Red Line is everything. It bought Barack Obama is little sign. The
:05:26. > :05:29.battle was the point where they realised Hezbollah was involved and
:05:29. > :05:32.said they were heading for a Sunni stand-off which could spread around
:05:32. > :05:36.the Middle East and they had to do something. By not seeing is a clue
:05:36. > :05:40.what he's going to do ahead the G8, and they can sit down in front of
:05:40. > :05:43.Britain and say that they have put their cards on the table, but now
:05:43. > :05:47.they need to do something. What are they both now going to be about?
:05:47. > :05:53.Short of all this stuff about small arms and heavy artillery and then a
:05:53. > :05:58.no-fly zone then everything else, he has these diplomatic cards to place
:05:58. > :06:01.on the table depending on what Putin says to him. Paul Lee's point was
:06:01. > :06:04.well made. In terms of what has happened in Iraq and Afghanistan, if
:06:04. > :06:09.you were sitting in the White House as commander-in-chief, you would
:06:09. > :06:14.think that you would just tried to get us out of two difficult wars and
:06:14. > :06:17.not wanting to go into a third. think it would ruin his second term,
:06:17. > :06:23.absolutely. I do not think there is the appetite in amongst the American
:06:23. > :06:28.voters or British voters or anybody else for it. While I tend to agree
:06:28. > :06:34.with you, you have to remember that the strategic environment is
:06:34. > :06:38.important. America is a leading part in the indispensable powers, as they
:06:38. > :06:44.call themselves. You can just let people intervene without doing
:06:44. > :06:49.anything yourself. They have for two years. There are 92,000 people but
:06:49. > :06:55.died over two years. But do you remember that Obama's original
:06:55. > :07:01.policy was no intervention? Big power cannot be disengaged anywhere.
:07:01. > :07:04.You cannot allow Hezbollah and Iran and the rush of Dom -- Russians to
:07:04. > :07:09.call the shots without having one of your calling card on the table. What
:07:09. > :07:14.Obama is after, I suspect, is not much to win the war anything like
:07:14. > :07:17.that. The supply of weapons is not going to do that. But think of
:07:17. > :07:24.Geneva. He wants to stop a far from winning and creating an incentive
:07:24. > :07:28.for him, perhaps, to join a diplomatic negotiation and appear at
:07:28. > :07:33.the Geneva negotiating table. are very few people who think that
:07:33. > :07:42.Geneva can get of the ground. supposed already happened. You don't
:07:42. > :07:47.know. That might cause a sad, fun however, two double see it.
:07:47. > :07:49.should Assad wants to negotiate? He is winning. That is the idea. You're
:07:49. > :07:54.not supposed to help the insurgents win the war but to make it
:07:54. > :08:01.impossible for Assad toured. But the insurgents want it at the table was
:08:01. > :08:05.a sad anyway. There is such an impasse that, as you say, it is...
:08:05. > :08:11.On top of that, then, the weapons that he gets, that is no certainty
:08:11. > :08:15.where those weapons are going. The opposition is a whole disparate of
:08:16. > :08:20.Jihadist and every thing else. separate groups. How can the
:08:20. > :08:23.Americans be sure they know where these are going? As an American, you
:08:23. > :08:28.cannot appear to be not doing anything and allowing other players
:08:28. > :08:34.to hold sway. Is doing something, if it is the wrong thing, better than
:08:34. > :08:41.doing nothing? The degree of intervention is so quite clearly
:08:41. > :08:44.did, not be big and cause too many mistakes. I'm sure those who think
:08:44. > :08:49.it will be a calibrated response, in other words they will be dipping the
:08:49. > :08:52.towing. There will be some weapons, see how it goes and then there will
:08:52. > :08:55.be more weapons. This brings us back to a point that we discussed over
:08:56. > :09:01.intervention in Libya. This is one of those occasions where you feel
:09:01. > :09:04.quite sorry for the politicians. There is no easy answer. I think
:09:04. > :09:10.that's right. I think we should all be glad that we are not the ones
:09:10. > :09:15.having to sit there and because the pollen call. It is dreadful to watch
:09:15. > :09:21.good people with good motives being a buy-back will. -- said they are
:09:21. > :09:25.and make this terrible call. Had it not been for Iraq and Afghanistan,
:09:25. > :09:30.the Syrians, the secular insurgents in Syria are paying the price of the
:09:30. > :09:33.errors that were made in the past. think it is also interesting that
:09:33. > :09:36.everyone makes the reference to these countries. Very few make the
:09:36. > :09:40.reference to Bosnia. One of the issues here is that if there was
:09:40. > :09:44.going to be intervention, the sooner the better. Actually, this kind of
:09:44. > :09:49.gradually putting on weapons are gradually helping only means that
:09:49. > :09:52.the killing is prolonged. It also means that although we are
:09:52. > :09:58.protesting, if weapons start going to the rebels it will take a few
:09:58. > :10:04.weeks. What does that say to the Assad regime? Ramp up militarily.
:10:04. > :10:08.Trying to give these lifelines makes it worse rather than bringing the
:10:08. > :10:12.conflict to an end. If the difference not that Syria suddenly
:10:12. > :10:16.looks epic, huge. It suddenly looks like it will be a conflagration
:10:16. > :10:19.involving most of the Middle East. Terrifying. Bosnia seemed to be
:10:19. > :10:25.quite specific and manageable. True, we went in earlier which was
:10:25. > :10:30.important. I think Tim has a huge part in this. Let's move on. The
:10:30. > :10:34.people of Iran have been going to the polls to elect a new leader.
:10:34. > :10:39.While anything really changed as a result? This does look a very odd
:10:39. > :10:43.process, doesn't it? Maybe some Iranians think it is the only way
:10:43. > :10:47.their voices can be heard. But when you have six candidates, selected by
:10:47. > :10:52.the people, and you have to choose from a very narrow ground, it is not
:10:52. > :10:58.really an expression of public opinion. -- chosen by other people.
:10:58. > :11:01.I think we can say that about many US primaries also. Money does count.
:11:01. > :11:04.Money counts. I think you're absolutely right and the fact that
:11:04. > :11:08.this is not the sort of democracy that everyone would aspire to.
:11:08. > :11:11.Having said that, I believe it is better than nothing. Also, I don't
:11:12. > :11:16.think there will be a change overnight with who wins as
:11:16. > :11:21.president. However, there is some hope that there could be a change of
:11:21. > :11:26.tone. Shades of reference. That could actually help what seems to be
:11:26. > :11:31.a complete deadlock when it comes to nuclear weapons, Syria or anything
:11:31. > :11:38.else. I think, rather than hope that this is a new path to democracy or
:11:38. > :11:44.for the ringing people themselves -- or that the Iranian people
:11:44. > :11:49.themselves could get better lives, we will think of this strategically.
:11:49. > :11:52.If Hassan Rowhani was to win, his tone is much more consolatory. He
:11:52. > :11:58.did say that when it comes to nuclear weapons, in an interview
:11:58. > :12:03.with my newspaper, that we cannot seek nuclear weapons. That nuclear
:12:03. > :12:08.weapons is a writer first. Definitely much more consolatory. In
:12:08. > :12:11.terms of nuclear power, or weapons, actually, pretty much every Iranian
:12:11. > :12:14.politician I have ever heard that agrees with that. Do you think it
:12:14. > :12:22.makes a difference if it is Hassan Rowhani as opposed to one of the
:12:22. > :12:27.others? I think it does for two reasons. Firstly, the renamed
:12:27. > :12:30.people. Most are probably fed up with the way the economy is, the
:12:30. > :12:36.rate of inflation, the devaluation of currency. This is because of the
:12:36. > :12:43.effect of the sanctions. This is the first thing. Secondly, because they
:12:43. > :12:46.know that they have had two terms of their president trying to bounce off
:12:46. > :12:50.the west and getting nowhere. The Morsi opened his mouth, the worst of
:12:50. > :12:54.God. There has to be a better level of engagement with the West for
:12:54. > :12:58.anything to happen, before sanctions and the economy can improve. I think
:12:58. > :13:01.it probably all comes back to the economy. Well, the economy, but also
:13:01. > :13:07.if you were sitting into Iran and worried about the price of bread, as
:13:07. > :13:10.many have been, and see a lack of economic development and Iranians
:13:10. > :13:13.rostering around the world but not at all might also think that we are
:13:13. > :13:23.getting involved in another foreign adventure in Syria, you may not be
:13:23. > :13:29.too happy. Citizens in that country will wonder what rights are in the
:13:29. > :13:35.citizens in our country will wonder what the price of intervention is.
:13:35. > :13:38.It would mean this, not on a nuclear bases, but on the question of who
:13:38. > :13:45.ran stalking the fire of foreign conflicts by going in there, that
:13:45. > :13:53.needs to be solved. Then, the Lord of the citizens and their daily
:13:53. > :14:01.lives comes into it straightaway. -- the way of the citizens. That way,
:14:01. > :14:05.Iran could keep its nuclear policy and evolve a new measure to have a
:14:05. > :14:12.relationship with the West. Whether it will happen a lot we do not know.
:14:12. > :14:15.The supreme religious readership sits above the president. It is hard
:14:15. > :14:20.to divine who calls the shots. In Western eyes, presidents are the
:14:20. > :14:26.supreme figures. To have one step above them. This needs to be sold.
:14:26. > :14:30.We need to have a direct indication of who calls the shots when it comes
:14:30. > :14:37.to foreign intervention, when it comes to improving the lot of
:14:37. > :14:45.everyday life and until that has been answered, the outcome of the
:14:45. > :14:50.election will be a riddle inside an enigma.
:14:50. > :14:56.Maybe this is a bit of an clenching going on. If you are an optimist,
:14:56. > :15:00.you have to believe that peoples, under whatever form of restrictive
:15:00. > :15:04.government and dictatorship, essentially want freedom. If he wins
:15:05. > :15:08.in Iran, people are going for the option that expresses that desire.
:15:09. > :15:13.One has to believe that the people of Iran want to be much more free.
:15:13. > :15:21.And they won't be constantly stirred up into fear of foreigners as a way
:15:21. > :15:26.of oppressing them. I think one has to be optimistic and hope for the
:15:26. > :15:33.best. We have had some people from
:15:33. > :15:41.Hezbollah going to a Sydney mosque in Syria and putting up a flag. We
:15:41. > :15:45.have some Egyptian cleric is. The sectarian divisions which have been
:15:45. > :15:48.held in check in most countries where people tend to get on,
:15:48. > :15:55.including Lebanon, for many years, they are very strong beneath the
:15:55. > :16:00.surface for some people. sectarianism is worrying, it has
:16:00. > :16:07.become blatant. Things that people said behind closed doors -- closed
:16:07. > :16:16.doors have become accepted. Let the man, when they had the civil war, it
:16:16. > :16:20.has been building up. -- Lebanon, when they had the civil war. It is
:16:20. > :16:25.hard to see how people step back when everyone is feeling very
:16:25. > :16:29.vulnerable. Like you said, when you have things like mosques being
:16:29. > :16:33.attacked or based solely on sectarian identity... But let's not
:16:33. > :16:39.forget, Syria is not about sectarianism. Some people say it is
:16:39. > :16:45.a minority, or might -- or a majority, but it is not about that.
:16:45. > :16:52.Sadly it has been used by political opportunists to become sectarian so
:16:52. > :16:56.they can find a doorway to people 's emotions. It is so emotional. The
:16:56. > :17:01.sectarian identity seems to be one way that you can get arms and
:17:01. > :17:09.support. Foreign forces use this to their
:17:09. > :17:15.advantage, Hezbollah being on the Shia site, and Russia. There is a
:17:15. > :17:21.proxy war going on as well as the sectarian divide using different
:17:21. > :17:24.camps to promote their own names. That is the uncanny aspect, the
:17:25. > :17:33.sectarian conflict which has suddenly been erupted and used by
:17:33. > :17:36.outside forces to stoke the fires of the problems some more. Saying you
:17:36. > :17:41.have to go in because everybody else is in, it could be a good reason for
:17:41. > :17:50.standing back. The intervention of Hezbollah has
:17:50. > :17:55.not suddenly made with a sunny-macro/sheer-macro issue. The
:17:55. > :18:03.Gulf state have been involved for some time.
:18:03. > :18:07.The G8 summit in Northern Ireland will discuss coordinated efforts to
:18:07. > :18:11.close tax loopholes. Some businesses legally find ways of paying no
:18:11. > :18:16.corporation tax in areas where they make enormous profits. So will the
:18:17. > :18:24.tax lawyers always find one way of playing one side against another,
:18:24. > :18:28.especially as naming and shaming always seems to be an issue. But
:18:28. > :18:31.some companies have been named without being shamed. They looked
:18:31. > :18:34.quite sheepish when they were being done in by a wonderful Margaret
:18:34. > :18:40.Hodge in the Public accounts committee, and she said, you do
:18:40. > :18:46.evil. The people from Amazon had no answers to her questions. And
:18:46. > :18:50.Starbucks had seen their profits in this country drop since some of us
:18:50. > :18:56.were campaigning in their shops saying, pay your taxes. I think the
:18:56. > :18:59.public mood will get to them. You can't avoid Google, pretty difficult
:18:59. > :19:03.to avoid Amazon, but Amazon is under attack I people like John Lewis and
:19:03. > :19:09.other retailers, saying that we cannot compete with people who don't
:19:09. > :19:13.pay their taxes, it is not fair. The politicians on the whole, David
:19:13. > :19:17.Cameron and the Labour Party have been a bit behind the curve in
:19:18. > :19:22.catching up. I think the G8 is only the first step, but Britain has two
:19:22. > :19:25.put its house in order. These dependencies of hours, they are
:19:25. > :19:31.dependent on us. The Channel Islands, the Turks and Caicos,
:19:31. > :19:34.Bermuda, the whole lot. When Monaco was stepping too far on tax
:19:34. > :19:38.avoidance, the president put his troops that the border and turned
:19:38. > :19:43.off their water supply. Why don't we do the same thing? We could turn off
:19:43. > :19:48.the banking supply, say our banks cannot deal with tax havens until
:19:48. > :19:55.they abide by our rules? I thought Amazon and the others said
:19:55. > :20:01.they had an answer to the problem. They said, change the rules. You are
:20:01. > :20:03.the lawmakers, we are just using the law. Fair point. I wonder why they
:20:03. > :20:08.keep hammering these companies rather than looking at themselves
:20:08. > :20:12.and wondering whether they should change the statute and make it
:20:12. > :20:17.impossible for them to say they are obeying the law. The ball is in the
:20:17. > :20:23.Court of the politicians, no doubt. That is where Northern Ireland might
:20:23. > :20:28.be helpful. The rules that govern the British
:20:28. > :20:31.Virgin Islands and the Turks and cake are some things were set up
:20:31. > :20:36.years ago when Britain was more of a trading nation, they needed that
:20:36. > :20:45.type of thing. They don't now. But David Cameron is in no position to
:20:45. > :20:49.start trying to force these people. One of the biggest beneficiaries of
:20:49. > :20:53.the British Virgin Islands are Chinese companies, for example.
:20:53. > :20:58.There is a lot of stuff that is visible to the British government
:20:58. > :21:03.which if it were driven elsewhere and written... British Crown
:21:03. > :21:10.dependencies controlled between ten and 20% of the tax havens in the
:21:10. > :21:16.world, there is an awful lot of other places that people can go to.
:21:16. > :21:22.And Ireland itself, this is a slightly different issue. Ireland
:21:22. > :21:26.compete by having a lower level than elsewhere in the European Union, and
:21:26. > :21:36.pretty much every other country, while respecting the difficulties
:21:36. > :21:36.
:21:36. > :21:40.Ireland has with the economy, hates it. Yes, they do. It is particularly
:21:40. > :21:43.difficult for Northern Ireland right across the border from somewhere
:21:43. > :21:51.where there is a corporation tax half the level that you will have to
:21:51. > :21:57.charge. As Eric Schmidt said, the boss of Google, we don't make the
:21:57. > :22:05.rules, we just abide by them. You can't blame companies for trying to
:22:05. > :22:09.optimise their tax benefits. I have to declare an interest, I do some
:22:09. > :22:14.work for Concern Worldwide, they are campaigning with around 200 NGOs to
:22:14. > :22:18.try to get more tax transparency, particularly with companies
:22:18. > :22:23.operating in sub-Saharan Africa, quite simply because of those
:22:23. > :22:28.companies paid governments in Africa what those governments are during
:22:28. > :22:31.court on tax, whatever the rate, 10% or 20%, it would make it much easier
:22:31. > :22:41.for them to develop their economies and make it much easier for the
:22:41. > :22:44.
:22:44. > :22:49.British taxpayer not to have to pay. Tax avoidance members in other
:22:49. > :22:53.countries... This is on the agenda for the G8, nobody is expecting a
:22:53. > :22:59.miracle by Tuesday lunchtime or whenever they finish in Fermanagh,
:22:59. > :23:03.but it is on the agenda. That itself is a start. The Crown dependencies
:23:03. > :23:07.are Downing Street today talking about it.
:23:07. > :23:12.Because it is at the G8, it highlights the fact that Britain on
:23:12. > :23:17.its own, Europe on its own, can't deal with it. It becomes weak. If
:23:17. > :23:23.written, for example, was to impose all these measures, which it must do
:23:23. > :23:26.as a first step, on their own, it looks like the UK is missing out and
:23:26. > :23:32.dependencies are missing out when others could take advantage. I think
:23:32. > :23:37.this is why David Cameron has put it on the G8 agenda. He wants the G8 to
:23:37. > :23:41.be about trade, transparency on tax. I am not sure trade will get much
:23:41. > :23:49.mention with Syria and other issues. It is crucial that it is about
:23:49. > :23:57.transparency, -- transparency. Two but don't let it be an excuse, until
:23:57. > :24:04.it is international. Britain itself is a tax haven. We talk about you as
:24:04. > :24:08.a tax haven, you wicked Irish, but we are a tax haven. Our non-domicile
:24:08. > :24:13.rules are great. For a piddling sum of money, people can put many here,
:24:13. > :24:19.pay no tax, by a path of Belgravia, leave it empty, sent property prices
:24:19. > :24:26.soaring, because we have become a tax haven for oligarchs and
:24:26. > :24:36.plutocrats of all sorts. But whose fault is that? Is it the fault of
:24:36. > :24:40.the law makers? Yes, they have been completely inseminated --
:24:40. > :24:45.intimidated by lobbyists et cetera. Labour made a pact with the devil,
:24:45. > :24:50.you keep putting money in here and we will leave you alone. It has come
:24:50. > :24:54.about because of public protest. I'm sorry, we will have to leave