:00:32. > :00:35.at the top of the hour. Now on BBC Britain's politicians head off on
:00:35. > :00:40.their summer holidays, with Prime Minister David Cameron in an
:00:40. > :00:50.especially cheerful mood. Why? The continuing crisis in Egypt's, plus
:00:50. > :00:59.
:00:59. > :01:03.small moves towards Middle East British Prime Minister, David
:01:03. > :01:08.Cameron, seemed at a low ebb. Trouble with his conservative right
:01:08. > :01:11.wing over Europe, the rise of UKIP and Labour come to be ahead in the
:01:12. > :01:14.opinion polls. This week, as he heads off on holiday, the Prime
:01:14. > :01:19.Minister was in a very different mood, attacking Labour being in the
:01:19. > :01:23.pocket of the trades unions, watching and fall and enjoying very
:01:23. > :01:27.low crime figures. How happy or otherwise should Mr Cameron be on
:01:27. > :01:31.his summer break? Things have been going a lot better for him. If we
:01:31. > :01:35.think back to the local elections, when we had that sudden UKIP
:01:35. > :01:40.search. You have the Tory right on the backbenches who were getting
:01:40. > :01:44.more than a little bit restless. There was even some talk of a
:01:44. > :01:48.leadership challenge. It was a very different picture. We saw the last
:01:48. > :01:52.prime ministers questions, where David Cameron put on a very
:01:52. > :01:55.confident performance against Ed Miliband. There's a few things which
:01:55. > :02:00.have happened. It's not just the fact we've seen the unemployment
:02:00. > :02:05.figures and so on. Britain is going to the big squeeze in living
:02:05. > :02:09.standards on record will stop Labour's poll lead is soft. That's
:02:09. > :02:13.because the Tories have a very clear message, which they repeat
:02:13. > :02:18.constantly. They say, we are in this mess because labour overspent,
:02:18. > :02:22.welfare spending is out of control, it is subsidising the feckless and
:02:23. > :02:25.work-shy. Labour are in the pocket of the trade unions. Labour have
:02:25. > :02:30.come off badly in terms of having a coherent message which they will
:02:30. > :02:35.respond with, which has always put them on the defensive on all of
:02:35. > :02:39.those issues. Including the NHS. A national health service, the
:02:39. > :02:45.creation of a Labour government. They were quite defensive on it.
:02:45. > :02:48.Yes. The NHS is often billed as Labour's proudest achievement. Polls
:02:48. > :02:53.show that Labour have a bigger poll lead on the NHS than any other
:02:53. > :02:56.issue. Nonetheless, at the moment they are being put on the back foot.
:02:56. > :03:01.The Tories did manipulate the inquiry which took place into
:03:01. > :03:03.several hospitals, which have above-average death rates. Labour's
:03:03. > :03:07.responds again, they were wrongfooted by that. The message we
:03:07. > :03:11.haven't had getting across, at a time in living standards are being
:03:11. > :03:14.squeezed at an unprecedented rate, are making the point of instead of
:03:14. > :03:17.Labour having overspent, that causing the crisis, the Tories
:03:17. > :03:22.backed Labour 's spending plans pound for pound to the end of 2008,
:03:22. > :03:24.making the point that when it comes to social security, most of that is
:03:24. > :03:33.going on people in work or pensioners rather than subsidising
:03:33. > :03:39.the feckless. And making the point about unions. They haven't made
:03:39. > :03:43.those points in a clear and coherent way. Where do you see this going?
:03:43. > :03:48.is making the point, when Ed Miliband should be making the point.
:03:48. > :03:58.Two weeks ago you had an exceptionally strong piece in the
:03:58. > :03:58.
:03:58. > :04:03.independent, about day five of the Unite Falkirk... You don't have to
:04:03. > :04:07.be a genius to know that the first thing Ed Miliband should have gone
:04:07. > :04:10.out and said is, look who funds the Tories, don't be talking to me about
:04:10. > :04:16.this. We will deal with what happened in Falkirk, it's a local
:04:16. > :04:20.issue, we will deal with it, Tom Watson has resigned over this.
:04:21. > :04:26.Please, let's talk about who funds the Tories. Where was Ed Miliband to
:04:26. > :04:31.do that? This is part of the reason Cameron has had a surge. Never
:04:31. > :04:37.underestimate the power of the image. The G8 summit in Northern
:04:37. > :04:40.Ireland. There was David Cameron everywhere, 20 47 on all the news
:04:40. > :04:45.outlets, looking prime ministerial. A big help. Then there was Andy
:04:45. > :04:52.Murray winning. Even yesterday at the test match, which England are
:04:52. > :04:56.winning full stop he is there. we are all in a better mood. And he
:04:56. > :05:04.does finally have this guy, Lynton Crosby, running communications,
:05:04. > :05:11.allegedly for the Conservative Party. Prost -- prior to working for
:05:11. > :05:15.the Conservatives, he was working for Boris Johnson. Once Lynton
:05:15. > :05:20.Crosby stalks working for Cameron, suddenly all the right-wing
:05:21. > :05:25.newspapers, the Tory newspapers, they all spring, driving his poll
:05:25. > :05:30.ratings down, suddenly they are onside. He made the right higher.
:05:30. > :05:35.think it's interesting, there's a lot of triumphalism and the
:05:35. > :05:40.parliament breaking up for the summer holidays, Triumph for the
:05:40. > :05:44.Tory party. I don't think in the long term there is actually that
:05:44. > :05:48.much to celebrate. The economy is still in the doldrums. The green
:05:48. > :05:53.shoots have been green shoots for two, three years now, they haven't
:05:53. > :05:58.managed to germinate into any kind of planned. I think the problem is
:05:58. > :06:03.that Ed Miliband has not managed to create a coherent... But if your
:06:03. > :06:06.analysis is right, then both parts of that were true. If the facts on
:06:06. > :06:11.the ground haven't really changed, and employment is still a problem,
:06:11. > :06:16.the economy is still in a bit of a mess, things may be getting better
:06:16. > :06:20.but it's very slow, Ed Miliband has had a couple of years to make a mark
:06:20. > :06:24.and... Isn't the implication that his progress has been very slow?
:06:24. > :06:28.Absolutely. David Cameron is always in a fortunate position because he
:06:29. > :06:32.looks good when the other person looks bad, as opposed to him doing
:06:32. > :06:38.something exceptional himself. Ed Miliband has been preoccupied with
:06:38. > :06:41.being defensive and slaying the ghosts of Labour past. As opposed to
:06:41. > :06:50.jettisoning everything and aggressively coming up with a new
:06:50. > :06:54.programme. Being a good politician doesn't mean being a good leader.
:06:54. > :06:59.The question has been hanging over Ed Miliband all the time. Also there
:06:59. > :07:05.is this background question about the relationship between the labour
:07:05. > :07:09.movement and the Labour politics, and how to try and solve this to
:07:09. > :07:14.create some kind of equilibrium. This has been a problem which they
:07:14. > :07:22.could not achieve a conclusion. The other point with regard to Mr
:07:22. > :07:27.Cameron, I think it's problems are still there. Something which has not
:07:27. > :07:31.been touched on, the question as to whether he can get an overall
:07:31. > :07:37.majority in the Conservative government or enter into a coalition
:07:37. > :07:42.again. All the commitments ensured unrest in the party. But the
:07:42. > :07:49.beautiful thing in the British culture is that the holiday is
:07:49. > :07:52.sacrosanct. While wishing Mr Cameron to have a good time, when he comes
:07:52. > :08:01.back to the conference I think you will find some skeletons in the
:08:02. > :08:08.closet. Let's pick up a couple of specific points. One is the
:08:08. > :08:11.relationship... Some see it as a problem, others say because it's the
:08:11. > :08:15.creation of the labour movement, Labour has to have a strong
:08:15. > :08:20.relationship. The question Ed Miliband has raised is whether it
:08:20. > :08:26.should be individuals who say, I don't mind my money going there. How
:08:26. > :08:32.do you think that this resolved? Some people think this is a real
:08:32. > :08:38.opportunity for Ed Miliband to show his strength. They do. The Tories
:08:38. > :08:41.have a lot of potential for this... The polls show people are more
:08:41. > :08:46.concerned with big businesses funding politics than they are then
:08:46. > :08:49.trade unions. There was a poll last week that showed people generally
:08:49. > :08:53.had a positive view of what trade unions did and how they operated.
:08:53. > :08:59.The problem with what he has proposed is that people have to opt
:08:59. > :09:05.in. People can opt out and trade unions are balloted... Saying you
:09:05. > :09:10.don't want your money to go there. Not many of them do it. About half
:09:10. > :09:15.of Unite members have opted out. All trade unions have the ballot their
:09:15. > :09:20.members to see if they want to be part of it every ten years. Very few
:09:20. > :09:25.trade unionists opt in, that would make it just a few thousand, bearing
:09:25. > :09:30.in mind there are 6.5 million trade union members in this country. It
:09:30. > :09:35.will look difficult to sustain any trade union link whatsoever. The
:09:36. > :09:40.electoral college, how they elect a leader, that could be polished. The
:09:40. > :09:44.50% that goes a conference to trade unions, that could disappear. Labour
:09:44. > :09:50.could have a huge funding problem and end up having to do what the
:09:50. > :09:54.Conservatives do, which is rely on hedge funds and large city banks.
:09:54. > :09:58.All they could end up facing bankruptcy, when there's not a lot
:09:58. > :10:03.of people who are going to fund the Tories election strategy. But they
:10:03. > :10:09.didn't go on the offensive and make the point at the beginning, we are
:10:09. > :10:15.proud to be funded by working people, unlike you. It would be
:10:15. > :10:22.difficult for him to make that point now. Miliband, having sat on this
:10:22. > :10:28.course, he has to see it through and he has to be seen... That's right.
:10:28. > :10:32.There's historic justification. The Tories aren't still the party of
:10:32. > :10:35.board seats, but that's part of their history. It's a hundred years
:10:35. > :10:37.since the Labour Party were set up. Frankly, I think the trade union
:10:37. > :10:44.leadership should be much more concerned about organising working
:10:44. > :10:49.people. They should be attending to the business of trade unionism. In a
:10:49. > :10:52.country where wages are not just squeezed by people coming into the
:10:52. > :10:57.labour market... You have kids who will never know any sense of
:10:58. > :11:03.security, they need to be out there on the street. The decline in the
:11:03. > :11:07.unions in the United States is systemic. Rather than playing
:11:07. > :11:13.politics, this might be a good moment for the trade union
:11:13. > :11:17.leadership, politics to politicians... May be for all of us,
:11:17. > :11:22.and get down to the serious business of reorganising... The point about
:11:22. > :11:26.Ed Miliband is he has, throughout this Parliament, a year and a half
:11:27. > :11:31.ago on this programme, Polly Toynbee said he was playing the long game.
:11:31. > :11:34.The problem with playing the long game is when the country is going
:11:34. > :11:39.through this extremely difficult economic time and he is supposed to
:11:39. > :11:46.represent ordinary working people, we are running out of time. If he's
:11:46. > :11:52.playing the long game, then he has a full year before he's in election
:11:52. > :11:57.mode the trade union membership. That's why they need a clear message
:11:57. > :12:01.to hammer away at. That's where they failed. The Tories constantly have
:12:01. > :12:07.the same message on all the key issues. Labour do not have a clear
:12:07. > :12:12.line. In terms of the missed opportunity for Labour to attack the
:12:12. > :12:16.Tories for their funding, in terms of voting, in terms of what people
:12:16. > :12:23.care about, in terms of the striking messages from the Tories and the
:12:23. > :12:27.Labour Party, the Labour Party has not managed to counter the very
:12:27. > :12:33.strong Tory view of the Labour Party as the party of foreigners and
:12:33. > :12:36.work-shy scroungers and the feckless. What the Labour Party
:12:36. > :12:39.should do is try and convince people that the Tory party is in the
:12:39. > :12:43.pockets of big business, tax avoiding corporations and hedge
:12:43. > :12:48.funds and investment bankers. It has not managed to do that. Nelson
:12:48. > :12:53.Mandela called his autobiography the Long walk to freedom. At the other
:12:53. > :12:57.end of the African continent, the people of Egypt may be on a real
:12:57. > :12:58.walk towards democracy or, given the military takeover, perhaps it's back
:12:58. > :13:03.to an old-fashioned military dictatorship. What should be hopeful
:13:03. > :13:08.for Egypt's? One of the hopes for the peace talks is the long walk for
:13:08. > :13:11.peace. How are things in Egypt's NOW? It seems to have quietened down
:13:11. > :13:16.a little bit. To start from the question, if the Muslim brotherhood
:13:16. > :13:19.waive the right to their memoir, the first leap to power, without an
:13:19. > :13:27.exercise, without creating national harmony or without knowing how to
:13:27. > :13:31.manage a state and all of that, my belief now is the Muslim brotherhood
:13:31. > :13:36.unfortunately our committing political and societal suicide,
:13:36. > :13:40.because you don't only deny reality, they can't see anything. They come
:13:40. > :13:43.from underground into the light and exercise the politics of the
:13:43. > :13:51.underground and secret societies in a way that excludes everyone else
:13:52. > :13:55.and makes it difficult, to the extent they appear to be the Muslim
:13:55. > :14:02.brotherhood versus the Egyptian people. And they accuse everyone
:14:02. > :14:06.else of being a reticulocyte or liberal, in Egypt now from the
:14:06. > :14:14.Muslim brotherhood side, liberal is an accusation as well as an
:14:14. > :14:24.American. It's got that serious?If you are liberal you are her
:14:24. > :14:24.
:14:24. > :14:29.reticulocyte. And that alienates people. The problem is the reality
:14:30. > :14:34.is making the Muslim brotherhood and their supporters assuage themselves
:14:34. > :14:39.in a way which makes life extremely difficult for the people who are
:14:39. > :14:46.surrounding. It looks like it is leading into confrontation, which no
:14:46. > :14:51.one wishes for. This demand of getting Mohamed Morsi back is like
:14:52. > :14:59.turning the clock back now. I feel that in one way or another we could
:14:59. > :15:07.be coming into a period like the early 1990s, in which you will face
:15:07. > :15:17.some violent attempts on life of some people. Because it will become
:15:17. > :15:49.
:15:49. > :15:53.an underground movement which will referred to that type? How closely
:15:53. > :16:03.is this being watched in other countries? Very closely by the rest
:16:03. > :16:04.
:16:04. > :16:09.of the Arab world. People think that Egypt is the blueprints. Centre of
:16:09. > :16:15.the Muslim brotherhood movement. It has almost every single element of
:16:15. > :16:23.Arab culture and religion. It has Christian minorities, and Arab
:16:23. > :16:28.history that is rich with engagement with Israel and so on. People in the
:16:28. > :16:34.Arab world are watching very closely to see has this work is? Is it
:16:34. > :16:39.something that people are going to be discouraged from supporting? I am
:16:39. > :16:44.pleased to say there is a lot of cheering of the Egyptian people in
:16:44. > :16:50.the Arab world. They are not giving up, they are covetous of the
:16:50. > :16:54.revolution. They are following up on the results of the revolution.
:16:54. > :16:58.though the army has effectively in charge? This is a point that a lot
:16:59. > :17:05.of people in the Arab world's are uncomfortable with. There has been a
:17:05. > :17:11.lot of lecturing about democracy, saying you can't just turn round
:17:11. > :17:14.after a year. Democracy in Egypt is not the same democracy that you have
:17:14. > :17:20.another countries. There are cornerstones of democracy that are
:17:20. > :17:28.required for it to be sustainable and they weren't there. The
:17:28. > :17:35.president did not bring in secular parties. Democracy and filtering the
:17:35. > :17:41.votes content. It was ridiculous to think that you could snap your
:17:41. > :17:49.fingers in the Arab spring which promote democracy just like that.
:17:49. > :17:56.Steve Kirk, who writes an excellent blog, had a piece this week that
:17:56. > :18:03.Egypt is blank. You fill it in, like Algeria, like Turkey. No, Egypt is
:18:03. > :18:06.like Egypt. It is the cornerstone of a certain amount of Arab sup --
:18:06. > :18:12.self-identity. Over and overcome all the political movements of the last
:18:12. > :18:21.20 years in the Arab world have been about how do you take is planned and
:18:21. > :18:25.make it work in a democratic context? I reported from Cairo and
:18:25. > :18:30.that of the brotherhood leadership. They were well organised, providing
:18:30. > :18:34.all the services that the corrupt regime did not provide any more.
:18:34. > :18:41.When the revolution happened, people gravitated towards them. But what
:18:41. > :18:46.they do since they got into? Over and over again, the whole movement
:18:46. > :18:49.of history is deciding whether radical political Islam can finally
:18:49. > :18:58.shed its underground anger and become a truly democratic movement.
:18:58. > :19:07.If you look at genistein, there you have moderates party in power in
:19:07. > :19:13.coalition. Contrast that to President more say, whose position
:19:13. > :19:18.was to exclude all his opponents from the political process. Another
:19:18. > :19:25.interesting application is the role of Turkey, which is hoped to build
:19:25. > :19:34.itself as a regional superpower, looking to export its own brand of
:19:34. > :19:39.populist Democratic Islamist them. They are deeply alarmed at what is
:19:39. > :19:49.happening in Egypt. The other fear is that jewel" situation in Egypt
:19:49. > :19:49.
:19:49. > :19:55.like you haven't Turkey, of always having a military apparatus in the
:19:55. > :19:59.background, manage democracy in a sense of security, personnel, senior
:19:59. > :20:05.generals and bureaucrats, who will always be there to make sure that if
:20:05. > :20:09.the government steps over certain lines they will intervene.
:20:09. > :20:16.Muslim brotherhood stepped over the line because they did not even use
:20:16. > :20:20.the government, the civil service and the whole establishment. They
:20:20. > :20:26.created their own parallel government and they tried to
:20:26. > :20:30.dismantle the police and a sideline the Army, tried to buy the army and
:20:30. > :20:37.create a friction between the leadership. They did all that with
:20:37. > :20:46.the intention of trying to entrench themselves in a way that's they
:20:46. > :20:52.could never leave government again. This is extremely difficult. Before
:20:52. > :20:58.1952 the Egyptians were 18 million people with social solidarity and
:20:58. > :21:05.enough to go around for everyone. Everything was nationalised. That
:21:05. > :21:15.was the mood of the time. The state became like mummy and daddy. When
:21:15. > :21:24.said that came he dismantled that's job security and brought is private
:21:24. > :21:34.enterprise in and everyone wanted to become rich. He brought the
:21:34. > :21:41.
:21:41. > :21:48.Islamists out again. They ended up killing him and everyone in the time
:21:48. > :21:52.of said that bothered if you could not get rich under him, you would
:21:52. > :21:55.never get rich. Hosni Mubarak nurtured the Islamic movement to
:21:55. > :22:01.frighten the West, but at the same time corruption was rife and
:22:01. > :22:08.everyone said, if you don't become corrupt under Hosni Mubarak you will
:22:08. > :22:16.never be corrupt. This is where we are. The only organised forces the
:22:16. > :22:19.Islamists. The Queen this week let slip that
:22:19. > :22:22.she would quite like to go on holiday, but she, like many people
:22:22. > :22:25.in Britain, is awaiting the birth of a new Royal baby who will eventually
:22:25. > :22:28.one day, it's assumed, become King or Queen. Republicans in Britain are
:22:28. > :22:38.currently are very small minority. What is it about the monarchy in
:22:38. > :22:39.
:22:39. > :22:49.Britain which makes it so popular? The most popular programme in
:22:49. > :22:57.America now is down happy. We love the monarchy in America. -- dying
:22:57. > :23:04.Abbey. There is this nostalgia, but in times of deep economic fear, to
:23:04. > :23:11.look at these people, they have got it makes! I think the same thing
:23:11. > :23:16.happened here. They are a lovely couple. Given how long late the
:23:16. > :23:26.family is, the child that is born sometime soon we hope, nobody here
:23:26. > :23:32.
:23:32. > :23:40.is watching this programme will ever see their child ascend the throne.
:23:40. > :23:46.They are innocents, acute cultural appreciation of the monarchy by
:23:46. > :23:50.Americans, foreigners and some British people. It is sinister, it
:23:50. > :24:00.feeds into all of the British problems and discomfort about
:24:00. > :24:05.
:24:05. > :24:10.class. Why is it so profoundly popular? I think that there is, in
:24:10. > :24:17.comparison to America, there is a big celebrity culture that has now
:24:17. > :24:27.crossed over. I do think that the Angelina Jolie Brad Pitt of America
:24:27. > :24:33.is now Kate and William in the UK. feel the establishment of monarchy
:24:33. > :24:36.provides a sense of pride and the star Jim Britain, and also a sense
:24:36. > :24:46.of continuity. King Farouk onset of the turn-of-the-century, if there
:24:46. > :24:56.
:24:56. > :25:00.was a King left it will be the King of Britain. President Blair,
:25:00. > :25:10.President Thatcher, that is why I think the monarchy is popular.
:25:10. > :25:13.
:25:13. > :25:19.a grumpy Republican. There is antipathy towards politicians.
:25:19. > :25:28.look at America and go, not sure! The interviews yes that monarchy is
:25:28. > :25:31.that you once had has faded. People like for pragmatic reasons.
:25:31. > :25:36.resurgence with the Royal wedding and the Jubilee, I think there is