:00:32. > :00:36.for you. It is time for Dateline London. The unrest in Egypt, with
:00:36. > :00:40.what consequences? And as the British media gorged on Prince
:00:40. > :00:50.George, what does the rest of the world think of the peculiar
:00:50. > :00:52.
:00:52. > :00:55.institution of monarchy? The army takeover in Egypt has led to the
:00:55. > :01:00.killings of dozens of people during angry demonstrations in Cairo and
:01:00. > :01:06.Alexandria. The army chief has urged his supporters to take to the
:01:06. > :01:12.streets. What are the consequences for Egypt and the wider Middle East?
:01:12. > :01:19.Did you foresee that this was going to happen when the army took over?
:01:19. > :01:26.Definitely. It was a clear-cut military coup. He took one side
:01:26. > :01:34.against the other and he used force against the Muslim Brotherhood, they
:01:34. > :01:40.won the election, I think the whole of the Middle East, to have this
:01:40. > :01:44.kind of bloodshed in Egypt, more than 75 people were killed when the
:01:44. > :01:51.army opened fire against the people, Egypt is extremely important for the
:01:51. > :01:56.Middle East. What happened in Egypt is reflected in other parts of the
:01:56. > :02:04.Middle East. This civil war could last months, maybe years, we don't
:02:04. > :02:14.know yet. Are you really that bleak about this? It could be another
:02:14. > :02:17.
:02:17. > :02:23.Algeria, about 200,000 people were killed in Algeria. The same scenario
:02:23. > :02:31.could be repeated in Egypt. It is dangerous because Egyptian people
:02:31. > :02:41.are peaceful by nature, they don't turn to violence, but if the Army
:02:41. > :02:42.
:02:42. > :02:47.continue confronting and shooting peaceful demonstrations, who are
:02:47. > :02:52.considering President Mohammed Morsi as the legitimate president, if
:02:52. > :02:58.people turn to violence, this could create a huge disaster. Not only for
:02:58. > :03:07.Egypt, for the whole of the Middle East. The army is playing a very
:03:07. > :03:15.dangerous game. There are some people, a front-page said is the
:03:15. > :03:20.Arab Spring over? How do you see it? The great hope and expectation of
:03:20. > :03:24.the Arab Spring has been dashed. It is a major setback for democracy,
:03:24. > :03:34.people are expecting democracy to take route and it hasn't happened.
:03:34. > :03:35.
:03:35. > :03:44.On the one hand, if you back democracy, or if you are backing
:03:44. > :03:51.religious extremism. In this case, and man was democratically elected,
:03:51. > :03:57.one has to respect that. Those who are critical of them say he was
:03:57. > :04:02.democratically elected but he did not govern as if he was a Democrat.
:04:02. > :04:09.He didn't govern as leader of the whole country. That is true, but
:04:09. > :04:13.that flawed situation has to be worn for the term he was elected. I don't
:04:13. > :04:23.think it is correct for democracy to house the person one and a half
:04:23. > :04:23.
:04:23. > :04:27.years into his term, I used. He would not have been re-elected.
:04:27. > :04:31.the army, when it stepped in, stepped into a situation in which
:04:31. > :04:37.there was enormous civil strife and rebellion against this very
:04:37. > :04:40.undemocratic government which had not been elected. Being elected
:04:40. > :04:45.democratically does not mean that you are committed to democracy,
:04:45. > :04:49.Hitler was elected. You can be elected and then turn on the
:04:49. > :04:53.democratic values. President Morsi was not elected on the programme
:04:53. > :04:56.which he installed when he arrived in power and there was tremendous
:04:57. > :05:03.civil unrest over this. The army stepped in because the civil unrest
:05:03. > :05:09.was getting out of hand. The initial demands that were made by the Army
:05:09. > :05:15.were that he should allow for a more inclusive government, that he should
:05:15. > :05:18.not bring in an oppressive Islamic fundamentalist social regime. He
:05:18. > :05:26.refused to accept that kind of inclusiveness and the army took
:05:26. > :05:32.over. But as a result of the crew, there is even more unrest. It's a
:05:32. > :05:42.tragic situation. Are the military leaders legitimated by the turnout
:05:42. > :05:45.
:05:45. > :05:50.on the streets? It suggests he wants a degree of Dawson and. I'm not sure
:05:50. > :05:57.legitimated is the right word. In terms of the laws of the country,
:05:57. > :06:03.the constitution of the country, the Constitution that Morsi changed, it
:06:03. > :06:11.is not legitimate. That's the problem, everything that is
:06:11. > :06:15.happening here is extralegal. you put it that way, we should
:06:15. > :06:24.support democratic, elected leaders. We should listen to the ballot
:06:25. > :06:33.boxes. The Arab Spring was to bring democracy. But it brought in an
:06:33. > :06:36.anti-democratic regime. We cannot be selected and democracy. If people
:06:36. > :06:39.choose the Muslim Brotherhood, we should respect their choice.
:06:39. > :06:46.President Morsi made mistakes, no question about that, but he ruled
:06:46. > :06:52.only for one year and from day one, the military establishment, the
:06:52. > :06:56.Liberals said we don't want him. He did not have a fair trial.
:06:56. > :07:01.refused to address the criticisms being made, he refused a more
:07:01. > :07:05.inclusive government, he insisted that he was going to bring in this
:07:05. > :07:14.socially repressive Islamic fundamentalist regime. It is only a
:07:14. > :07:18.few months... Part of the people think that. It is only a few months,
:07:18. > :07:26.and people judged him and the Muslim Brotherhood started, demonstrations
:07:26. > :07:30.started. It was going that way, there wasn't any hesitation on his
:07:30. > :07:40.part. He wasn't saying I will think again, I will consider. He said
:07:40. > :07:46.
:07:46. > :07:52.that. The other one says this was not a coup. But it acts like a coup,
:07:52. > :07:58.and he is acting like a coup master. He called for demonstrators,
:07:58. > :08:08.demonstrators came out, suddenly there are all these placards. Where
:08:08. > :08:11.did they come from? President Morsi did not get a fair trial. One and a
:08:11. > :08:16.half years, no matter what his intentions were, that term should
:08:16. > :08:20.have been allowed to run out. We were looking at a situation which
:08:20. > :08:26.was an infant democracy, the impatience of the Egyptian people
:08:26. > :08:32.was very high and the demonstrations therefore took place. The army took
:08:32. > :08:39.advantage of that situation. Where do you think this leaves the Arab
:08:39. > :08:45.Spring? Most people in the Arab world look to Egypt, and this is
:08:45. > :08:51.going backwards, isn't it? Definitely, the Arab Spring is
:08:51. > :08:58.creating failed states in the Middle East. People are on the streets,
:08:58. > :09:05.people killed in Libya, there are a lot of attacks against the Muslim
:09:05. > :09:11.Brotherhood's headquarters, in Egypt people are divided and the army is
:09:11. > :09:21.stepping in and shooting people. Would it be better there were no
:09:21. > :09:21.
:09:21. > :09:26.Arab Spring? It was derailed. The Arab Spring was derailed to the
:09:26. > :09:29.worst conclusions. This is the problem, people aspiring for
:09:29. > :09:35.democracy and human rights but the problem is when you have a militant
:09:35. > :09:38.government, it is Islamist and the West doesn't like it or some part of
:09:38. > :09:48.the Egyptian people don't like it. This is the problem, we have to be
:09:48. > :09:49.
:09:49. > :09:53.patient, more seat was in power for less than a year -- President Morsi.
:09:53. > :09:58.But it seemed to be moving away from what we regard as democratic
:09:58. > :10:06.values, personal freedom, liberty, civil rights, all of this was being
:10:06. > :10:14.dispensed with. But an elected government was being given a chance.
:10:14. > :10:19.Plenty of African countries have one election and then nothing. We have
:10:19. > :10:25.criticised people a lot in this country, saying policies are
:10:25. > :10:30.complete failure, his authority is ruining the country. But does that
:10:30. > :10:37.mean that the Army should step in? It doesn't abolish basic
:10:37. > :10:43.constitutional freedoms. You may discuss the army coup in Britain
:10:43. > :10:49.later. Britain's GDP figures were considerably better than over the
:10:49. > :10:52.previous few years. Is the recovery truly underway or as the British
:10:52. > :10:56.economy still beset by major structural problems that are not
:10:56. > :11:03.being tackled? Where do you stand on this? It's better to have growth
:11:03. > :11:08.than no growth. It is basically bumping along the bottom. Many of
:11:08. > :11:14.the remedies are contributing to the structural problems. Very low
:11:14. > :11:18.interest rates, the quantitative easing is effectively undermining
:11:18. > :11:22.the value of pensions, for example, and savings. The biggest structural
:11:22. > :11:29.problem for this country is the demographic problem. We have an
:11:29. > :11:32.ageing population and too few people of working age. If you destroy the
:11:32. > :11:37.value of savings and pension funds, you're never going to be able to
:11:37. > :11:41.solve the problem of an elderly population dependent on a shrinking
:11:41. > :11:48.working population. The remedies themselves have contributed to the
:11:48. > :11:56.long-term structural problem. don't get much coverage of it here,
:11:56. > :12:01.but the Merkel campaign in Germany, she banged on all the time, in
:12:01. > :12:09.Europe we have got 25% of the GDP and 50% of the welfare, is that
:12:09. > :12:13.basically your analysis? Yes, and America going in the same direction
:12:13. > :12:15.because it's decided to become a European social democracy. It
:12:15. > :12:21.combines with the problem of post-industrial societies, Detroit
:12:21. > :12:25.has just gone broke. It's a magnified example of the problems
:12:25. > :12:34.that we are having in the North of England, for example, where we are
:12:35. > :12:40.past the stage of industrialisation, where hundreds of
:12:40. > :12:45.people were put to work. And we have got an ex-working-class population
:12:45. > :12:51.who are not being trained and educated to the level needed now.
:12:51. > :12:55.When you look at the British economy? There is a skills gap, it
:12:55. > :12:59.is quite extraordinary that there are industries, particularly in the
:12:59. > :13:05.north of England who need more skilled workers and they haven't got
:13:05. > :13:12.them. There is a skills gap and a growing anti-immigrant feeling in
:13:12. > :13:15.the country and the two often collide. The politics of this are
:13:15. > :13:19.interesting because obviously the GDP figures are good, welcomed by
:13:19. > :13:23.the government. It is welcomed by the people, but the people don't
:13:23. > :13:28.feel it, the people feel, they know that their living standards are
:13:28. > :13:32.lower than they have been in ten years, they know that austerity will
:13:32. > :13:36.continue. The government is not suddenly going to change course.
:13:36. > :13:42.They know that public debt is basically the same this year as it
:13:42. > :13:49.was last year. Then they also know what Janet is talking about, about
:13:49. > :13:55.the longer term problems. We all feel this in different ways, it is a
:13:55. > :14:01.big dilemma and elections do not always, I am in favour of elections,
:14:01. > :14:07.but elections don't always help these matters because often the
:14:07. > :14:14.policies are designed to lead up to an election as opposed to long-term
:14:14. > :14:19.thinking about... You mean the housing subsidy, it is politics
:14:19. > :14:27.rather than policy. It's hard to find an economist who thinks that is
:14:27. > :14:34.a good idea. It is completely out of sync with most people's earnings. If
:14:34. > :14:40.we are really unlucky, we might have another crisis. It is very cynical
:14:40. > :14:48.to think that that bubble might not happen until after the election.
:14:48. > :14:51.don't see not .6% growth as particularly spectacular. I don't
:14:51. > :14:56.see the circumstances in academic terms. To put it simply, growth
:14:56. > :15:02.needs to be spread out over the entire country, not just the
:15:02. > :15:08.south-east. The crucial thing, this is where the people look at the
:15:08. > :15:14.figures more closely than any other figures, is employment. If growth
:15:14. > :15:19.leads to greater employment, I think there will be a feel-good factor.
:15:19. > :15:22.One analysis goes but the reason unemployment has not been so bad as
:15:22. > :15:26.it could've in previous recessions is because wages have been squeezed
:15:26. > :15:32.so much it is cheaper to employ people in real terms than it was
:15:32. > :15:40.five, ten years ago. Absolutely, and that could lead to a certain amount
:15:40. > :15:44.of foreign investment because labour is cheaper than it was. That
:15:44. > :15:52.certainly is the case, but growth needs to be something like one and a
:15:52. > :16:01.half to 2% in the first quarter of 2015 for the Conservatives to feel
:16:01. > :16:06.comfortable and for Labour to feel uncomfortable. Those analysts told
:16:07. > :16:13.us for the last six months that the decision is coming and the economy
:16:13. > :16:16.is shrinking. Now we have 0.6% growth, which is really good news.
:16:16. > :16:21.We are waiting for good news to happen in this country, especially
:16:21. > :16:26.on the economy side. But I believe the emphasis of the British economy
:16:26. > :16:35.should be changed a bit. It should be concentrated more in innovation
:16:35. > :16:44.and competition. And if we can import skills from the third World,
:16:44. > :16:50.for example, Germany imported more than 200,000. Canada is doing the
:16:50. > :16:56.same, the US is doing the same. This country shouldn't be very sensitive
:16:56. > :17:02.to the foreign expertise who are essential to improve the economy,
:17:02. > :17:06.create more jobs. Now we are in a technological world now. We have to
:17:06. > :17:10.emphasise that. The trouble is you then still have the remaining rumble
:17:10. > :17:15.of unemployable people who have to be sustained by welfare and
:17:15. > :17:18.benefits, which is a very unhealthy situation socially, but it's also an
:17:18. > :17:24.viable economically. We can't go on spending money on welfare provision
:17:24. > :17:30.in the way that we have been. Millar change the education system.
:17:30. > :17:34.Absolutely. But in a sense, the Labour government's solution to this
:17:34. > :17:38.problem was just to import labour, not just skilled labour, unskilled
:17:38. > :17:42.labour. And the people in this country who could have been doing
:17:42. > :17:46.unskilled jobs were kept afloat on a welfare programme that became
:17:46. > :17:54.prohibitively expensive. There's another thing, too. The costs were
:17:54. > :17:59.unaffordable even in the 90s and early 2000s, when growth was higher.
:17:59. > :18:09.We'd better get used to figures like 0.6% because we are entering an era
:18:09. > :18:18.of low growth. 0.6% begins to look good. 1.5% begins to look like...
:18:18. > :18:25.revolution! Nobody has said a single good word about Osborne. We have to
:18:25. > :18:35.give him some credit. His recipe at last has started to bear some fruit.
:18:35. > :18:35.
:18:36. > :18:42.It's good. He has been flogged for the last two years. When he took the
:18:42. > :18:45.job he knew that people would hate whoever was the next chancellor.
:18:45. > :18:49.Austerity has hardly hit. The cutbacks everyone has been told
:18:49. > :18:55.about have just begun, nobody has felt the effects of these. They talk
:18:55. > :19:00.about austerity but nothing happens. Therefore the nervousness in the
:19:00. > :19:05.Labour Party that if austerity works, what argument does Labour
:19:05. > :19:10.have? There was wall-to-wall coverage in most British media this
:19:10. > :19:15.week of the latest addition to the Royal Family. But what does the rest
:19:15. > :19:19.of the world think of this very British obsession and of the
:19:20. > :19:24.institution of monarchy itself? How does the great Republic of India
:19:24. > :19:28.view it? The great Republic of India, which has links with Britain,
:19:28. > :19:32.but it cut its links with Britain and decided to be a republic rather
:19:32. > :19:36.than have the British monarchy at the head of government, it has
:19:36. > :19:39.reacted in a very exuberant manner. I must say that media coverage in
:19:39. > :19:46.India has been wall-to-wall. So there is still this residual link
:19:46. > :19:51.with Britain and an emotional link. People do get very excited when
:19:51. > :19:59.something happens with the Royal Family. Whether it is the jubilee of
:19:59. > :20:04.the Queen or the marriage between William and Kate, or any other, I
:20:04. > :20:08.think there's extraordinary attention paid by media. That
:20:08. > :20:14.reflects at least urban India is really clued in when it comes to the
:20:14. > :20:20.British Royal Family. How about in Palestine and across the Arab world?
:20:20. > :20:23.How do you feel that people react to this, are they interested or not?
:20:23. > :20:29.was surprised with the huge interest in the middle east with the Royal
:20:29. > :20:33.baby. People there, despite the depressing situation, the Arab
:20:33. > :20:36.Spring is faltering, demonstrations everywhere, Civil War in Syria and
:20:36. > :20:40.Tunisia, despite that they have amazed me. They were really
:20:40. > :20:47.interested, the media, the television, the newspapers. I don't
:20:47. > :20:51.know, we have Royal Family is there and they are very productive. Some
:20:51. > :20:58.of them have maybe 20 princes or something like that, plenty of
:20:58. > :21:07.wives. Despite that... Definitely! Despite all this production...
:21:07. > :21:09.royal babies. We've lost count, to be honest. Despite that, whether
:21:09. > :21:13.monarchists or Republicans, they are looking at the Prince and the
:21:13. > :21:18.British news and the British Royal baby. It is amazing. In this
:21:18. > :21:26.country, this channel in particular, its ratings were about
:21:26. > :21:35.2.3 million. Just on this channel and there was more on BBC One.
:21:35. > :21:39.happy news. It's a good news story. The birth of a baby to a couple who
:21:39. > :21:45.are obviously happy and who actually like each other, which is quite rare
:21:45. > :21:55.in the Royal Family... Who can resist? A lot of those hours staring
:21:55. > :21:56.
:21:56. > :22:02.at a door, it did get a bit... I couldn't believe the lack of irony.
:22:02. > :22:05.The great Republic of the United States! We, in the United States,
:22:05. > :22:13.don't have two live with the constitutional anomalies that this
:22:13. > :22:20.does create. The same is true with the rest of the world. There are
:22:20. > :22:25.strange things about Britain and the Royal Family is one of those things.
:22:25. > :22:29.Not personally, but as a constitutional issue. It raises a
:22:29. > :22:37.lot. But nobody was thinking constitution, everybody was just
:22:37. > :22:41.thinking, baby! My American friends were all amazed at how relatively
:22:42. > :22:47.detached we in Britain were from it. I had American friends who were
:22:47. > :22:52.glued to every minute of the Royal Wedding, for example. I went to
:22:52. > :23:01.Paris to escape from it. They thought... They were mystified by
:23:01. > :23:10.this! Most people love the Royal Family. In all parts of the world it
:23:10. > :23:17.is not the same case. It is nice to have a baby from a young couple.
:23:17. > :23:23.Your Royal Family is actually rule. Yes. And because of globalism, we
:23:23. > :23:27.lost the tradition. We are looking for this tradition. To be honest,
:23:28. > :23:33.the media here, they are extremely good in marketing the Royal Family
:23:33. > :23:38.and the baby. What I loved most was the simplicity of Prince William.
:23:38. > :23:44.Down to shirtsleeves, down to business. If you see the photograph
:23:44. > :23:50.of his father 30 years ago, coming out of that same hospital, the same
:23:50. > :23:55.door in a suit and tie. He was dressed down, that approach makes
:23:55. > :23:59.the couple very attractive to people. The bit that surprised me
:23:59. > :24:03.was he was brave enough, as a new dad, to try and clip in the car
:24:03. > :24:11.seat. Anybody who's ever done that ever knows it is fraught with
:24:11. > :24:16.disaster. And in front of the world's media! Maybe it was part of
:24:16. > :24:20.his military training! Are we going to welcome the United States back
:24:20. > :24:25.into the Commonwealth as a result of this? I don't think that comes with
:24:25. > :24:31.the coverage. Where'd you see this going, because this child will grow
:24:31. > :24:37.up in this new media world... Prince Harry, when he was in Las Vegas, was
:24:37. > :24:41.snapped on a mobile phone, so everything he does, he is going to
:24:41. > :24:45.have no real privacy, is he? Definitely, he wouldn't have
:24:45. > :24:49.privacy. His father didn't and his grandfather didn't also. I feel
:24:49. > :24:55.sorry for him because the media is looking for all details. I really
:24:55. > :25:00.envy the media here, how they produce this endless coverage! It's
:25:00. > :25:07.unbelievable. And how they find the material. It is a lesson of
:25:07. > :25:13.journalism here. How can you create a big story of a very small event?
:25:14. > :25:18.Let's not get ahead of ourselves. This guy, this wonderful child, if
:25:18. > :25:28.he becomes king, it may not even be in this century. It may not be in
:25:28. > :25:35.this century. We are looking at 60 years. We've got two Kings to go!
:25:35. > :25:38.Imagine when he has a teething problem, it will be a headline. The