:00:00. > :00:00.I am back with a full bulletin at the top of the hour. Now it is
:00:00. > :00:26.Dateline London live with Carol Walker.
:00:27. > :00:34.Hello. Welcome to Dateline London. South Africa prepares for a week of
:00:35. > :00:37.events to commemorate the life of Nelson Mandela. We will look at his
:00:38. > :00:40.legacy and the future of the country.
:00:41. > :00:46.Also, how strong is the British economy? Is the Chancellor right to
:00:47. > :00:49.claim his plan is working? My guests today are Polly Toynbee of the
:00:50. > :00:56.Guardian, Stephanie Baker from Bloomberg, temp wat from S W radio
:00:57. > :01:01.Africa and Heather Walker from The South African.Dot com. Thank you for
:01:02. > :01:09.joining us. Heather, we have heard is a lot about Nelson Mandela's
:01:10. > :01:16.extraordinary life and achievements. What state does he
:01:17. > :01:22.leave South Africa in now? People are asking what his legacy is. On
:01:23. > :01:30.one hand his legacy is the country itself. It is the people and the
:01:31. > :01:34.institutions he built and the reconciliation that he developed in
:01:35. > :01:40.South Africans. We are changed country. We are different place. You
:01:41. > :01:47.can see it in the way people relate to each other. But on the other hand
:01:48. > :01:55.there is a Santa legacy where people are questioning whether country is
:01:56. > :02:01.going. `` there is a sadder lectures the `` a sadder legacy. The current
:02:02. > :02:07.leaders living up to the current values and rights for all. The
:02:08. > :02:15.legacy of Nelson Mandela might be in a fragile state, as some people
:02:16. > :02:18.would argue. Tererai Karimakawenda, do you think that is right? Yes.
:02:19. > :02:21.would argue. Tererai Karimakawenda, do you think that is right? Yes If
:02:22. > :02:26.you look at the promise when he came out of prison, one thing that was
:02:27. > :02:29.promised was basic water and electricity and there are still
:02:30. > :02:33.millions of people in South Africa who do not have those basics.
:02:34. > :02:38.Mandela has been let down by the people who followed him. He had the
:02:39. > :02:41.right idea and he stepped down at the right time and did the right
:02:42. > :02:46.thing, because many African leaders do not want to step down. You
:02:47. > :02:49.literally have to force them from power. But he did the right thing
:02:50. > :02:53.but the people after him did not follow those ideas and they could
:02:54. > :02:58.have done a lot more to change the lives of South Africans. We know
:02:59. > :03:04.unemployment is around 25%. There was a big gulf between the incomes
:03:05. > :03:10.of the black and white communities. Yes, income and equality in South
:03:11. > :03:17.Africa has widened since apartheid. That will be a real battle ground
:03:18. > :03:20.going forwards. People struggle for the heart of the ANC and how it
:03:21. > :03:25.develops the economy going forwards. In the past year and a half there
:03:26. > :03:28.has been a series of wildcat strikes across mines in South Africa, where
:03:29. > :03:34.unions are demanding a doubling of wages. It has been met by a deadly
:03:35. > :03:39.response by the police who have not handled it well at all. Now they
:03:40. > :03:45.have unions threatening to leave the ANC because they disagree with
:03:46. > :03:51.Government policy. There is a lot of questions over how South Africa goes
:03:52. > :03:56.forwards and moves that Mandela s legacy, remembering what he wanted
:03:57. > :04:00.to do which was equality and opportunity for everyone and they
:04:01. > :04:04.have fallen short of that with the economic legacy unravelling a bit.
:04:05. > :04:09.There has been a huge amount spoken about how much he did achieve. In
:04:10. > :04:15.the immediate aftermath of his death, do you think perhaps some
:04:16. > :04:20.problems have been overlooked? I think so. It is not really a day or
:04:21. > :04:25.a week for looking at his weaknesses or the things he could not achieve.
:04:26. > :04:30.After all, you think of the heavy lifting required, and how amazing
:04:31. > :04:34.what he did achieve and that remains the most remarkable thing about him
:04:35. > :04:38.despite everything you have said. I have been looking at the
:04:39. > :04:43.extraordinary British reaction. The utter hypocrisy of the British and
:04:44. > :04:48.right ring and the British press. Pages and pages of the Daily
:04:49. > :04:51.Telegraph, the Daily Mail, the papers who supported apartheid at
:04:52. > :04:55.the time. I was amongst the demonstrators outside South Africa
:04:56. > :05:01.House and part of the apartheid movement. I worked for Amnesty
:05:02. > :05:08.International in the Ian Smith years. The rewriting of history,
:05:09. > :05:12.years. The rewriting of history particularly the British
:05:13. > :05:18.Conservatives' role, they supported apartheid. And now David Cameron is
:05:19. > :05:22.saying how wonderful he was. David Cameron himself visited South Africa
:05:23. > :05:29.with his expenses paid in 1989, expenses paid by a lobbying group,
:05:30. > :05:34.and we get these crocodile tears. It sticks in my throat. What has been
:05:35. > :05:41.interesting for me is listening to the stories. The stories that are
:05:42. > :05:48.coming out which ordinary people are telling about those demonstrations.
:05:49. > :05:53.The things people dead. Ordinary white people who supported the
:05:54. > :05:58.movement and wanted him to be freed from jail. Really lovely stories
:05:59. > :06:01.about how I brought my daughter and we stayed there all night and the
:06:02. > :06:07.money that was raised by youth clubs. That is when you really see
:06:08. > :06:09.the legacy that Nelson Mandela was leaving. When you look at the
:06:10. > :06:13.relationships which have developed over the years I was listening to a
:06:14. > :06:17.woman who age was married to a Jamaican and this is how she got to
:06:18. > :06:21.know about Nelson Mandela, because as a white person she had never had
:06:22. > :06:26.black friends before that. She married this Jamaican and he bought
:06:27. > :06:32.this `` he brought this other aspect to her life. That kind of legacy of
:06:33. > :06:41.bringing Brack and white together is his legacy. It was a small group in
:06:42. > :06:46.Britain with the police treating the demonstrators as if... The people
:06:47. > :06:52.pull were split on these demonstrations. And a great exodus
:06:53. > :06:57.of white Brits to South Africa for a better life as you can get
:06:58. > :07:06.servants. The cultural rewriting that is going on now is dangerous.
:07:07. > :07:12.And South Africa does have the advantage now that it has a lot of
:07:13. > :07:15.foreign investment but we have these big elections coming up. Some
:07:16. > :07:22.criticism of the current ANC leadership. We know the ANC is
:07:23. > :07:26.losing support. We do not know how it will pan out by the time the
:07:27. > :07:34.election comes. We celebrate 20 years next year of democracy which
:07:35. > :07:36.is hard to believe. That will be a watershed moment in our country The
:07:37. > :07:41.watershed moment in our country. The elections come at a time when there
:07:42. > :07:47.are these extreme economic problems with the mines and the unions. There
:07:48. > :07:52.is a rift between the unions and the ANC. That has traditionally been one
:07:53. > :07:54.of the main strongholds of the ANC. So how they might break away could
:07:55. > :08:09.influence the election quite strongly. And also all the new
:08:10. > :08:12.parties coming forward. A lot of people `` we have a lot of
:08:13. > :08:16.politicians coming through at the moment, all sorts of new pieces
:08:17. > :08:23.coming up with new parties coming up. Although they are not going to
:08:24. > :08:28.win a huge amount of the votes the first time around, we know the ANC
:08:29. > :08:31.will be looking at those parties and the opposition party and the
:08:32. > :08:38.Democratic Alliance which is growing in popularity in many communities.
:08:39. > :08:45.And South Africa is now seen as an important player, one of the bricks
:08:46. > :08:48.of emerging economies in the world. That economic future is hugely
:08:49. > :08:55.important for the country, isn't it? Yes, it is but it is not China or
:08:56. > :08:58.India. It has not experienced the rapid economic growth we have seen
:08:59. > :09:04.in some of the other brick countries. That is partly because of
:09:05. > :09:11.the economic legacy from Nelson Mandela, he played a huge role in
:09:12. > :09:15.stabilising the economy. People forget how bad South Africa was at
:09:16. > :09:21.the time he took over as president. They had a massive budget deficit.
:09:22. > :09:26.Capital was fleeing the country He played a strong stabilising force
:09:27. > :09:32.and set up the conditions for economic growth for 15 years until
:09:33. > :09:37.2008 when the financial crisis hit. Now it ought to be growing faster
:09:38. > :09:42.and I think the challenge is how to strike the balance between working
:09:43. > :09:48.conditions and pay. That will be the real focus going forwards to attract
:09:49. > :09:53.international investment at the same time. How to strike that talents in
:09:54. > :10:03.a politically tricky time period will be interesting to watch.
:10:04. > :10:06.Tererai, South Africa is an important player in that region.
:10:07. > :10:13.important player in that region Yes, the most important player right
:10:14. > :10:17.now. South Africa was appointed as the facilitator in terms of the
:10:18. > :10:27.negotiations in Zimbabwe when we had elections and problems there. We had
:10:28. > :10:35.the facilitator negotiating between Robert Mugabe and Zanu`PF. They had
:10:36. > :10:39.huge respect for Nelson Mandela and many wished he had said something
:10:40. > :10:42.about the situation in Zimbabwe particularly when we had violent
:10:43. > :10:47.elections and people were brutalised and we have a president who has been
:10:48. > :10:51.a powerful 30 years to leave. Zimbabweans have so much respect for
:10:52. > :10:57.Nelson Mandela and they wanted some verbal criticism pointing to the fax
:10:58. > :11:01.next door. That was a glaring absence or silence. He was very well
:11:02. > :11:04.respected in Zimbabwe. Stefanie, absence or silence. He was very well
:11:05. > :11:06.respected in Zimbabwe. Stefanie as respected in Zimbabwe. Stefanie as
:11:07. > :11:12.we look at the future of South Africa in that region, do you think
:11:13. > :11:19.the markets will look positively on that future without Nelson Mandela
:11:20. > :11:25.there? He was still there as this presents for the nation. That will
:11:26. > :11:30.depend on the outcome of the elections and what happens to the
:11:31. > :11:35.ANC. If it turns into a messy political situation and we see the
:11:36. > :11:45.unions breaking off from the ANC, that will add instability. They
:11:46. > :11:48.really need to focus on an agreement between wages to placate the unions
:11:49. > :11:51.and stabilise the mining industry which is a huge part of the economy
:11:52. > :11:56.and South Africa. They need a long`term solution. Any final
:11:57. > :12:02.thoughts on the future of South Africa? South Africa has always been
:12:03. > :12:08.the great emblem of hope for the rest of Africa. If it cannot resolve
:12:09. > :12:12.its inequality problem, it looks grim. The gap in wages is so
:12:13. > :12:21.enormous between top and bottom There has to be someone a showing
:12:22. > :12:22.that you can have a fairer distribution of wealth. That is the
:12:23. > :12:29.way forward for Africa. Tererai, way forward for Africa. Tererai
:12:30. > :12:34.would you agree with that? Absolutely. Also, it is an important
:12:35. > :12:38.time to look back at what this meant and what apartheid was and what it
:12:39. > :12:43.meant to people. The separation of people. You had classes of people
:12:44. > :12:49.where the Asians and Africans were here and the whites were there. To
:12:50. > :12:53.revisit that if you have children, to really look at what Mandela's
:12:54. > :12:58.plight was all about. That struggle has produced many important people.
:12:59. > :13:03.Many were fighting for the same thing, which is equality and justice
:13:04. > :13:08.and a good life for all people. It is a good time to revisit that. Yes,
:13:09. > :13:13.a whole new focus on that after his death. Now we must move on. In
:13:14. > :13:19.Britain this week the Chancellor George Osborne gave his Autumn
:13:20. > :13:25.Statement. He trumpeted the fastest growth in the developing world ``
:13:26. > :13:33.wrote developed world. But Ed Balls accused him of taking complacency
:13:34. > :13:40.and a crisis leaving families worse off. Who is right? Stephanie Baker,
:13:41. > :13:46.do you think the Chancellor was right to make those confident
:13:47. > :13:52.claims? It is remarkable how quickly the situation has changed in six
:13:53. > :13:54.months. Back in March had the IMF criticising George Osborne for not
:13:55. > :14:03.doing enough to kick`start the UK economy. Had Britain being
:14:04. > :14:07.downgraded `` you had the credit rating of Britain being downgraded.
:14:08. > :14:12.The forecast has not been good. The numbers do not live. There is a
:14:13. > :14:18.recovery going on. Construction and services have only bounded. I think
:14:19. > :14:26.the issue is that it is not a balanced recovery. It is being
:14:27. > :14:29.driven by consumer demand and credit as opposed to investment or
:14:30. > :14:32.exports. That is probably because Europe is still in the doldrums and
:14:33. > :14:38.that is the largest trading partner. I thought that people
:14:39. > :14:45.viewed this as a political statement by George Osborne. He is staking his
:14:46. > :14:53.economics at the centre of the next election. That will get tricky going
:14:54. > :14:57.forward. He was claiming that his austerity plan worked and that had
:14:58. > :15:02.resulted in economic growth. A lot of economists look at that and think
:15:03. > :15:10.that might be a stretch. The Bank of England has kept interest rates at
:15:11. > :15:14.historic lows for five years and has embarked on impressive easing which
:15:15. > :15:18.is taking hold and resulting in some of the economic growth. And the real
:15:19. > :15:24.issue is how to unravel this without killing the economy. The Bank of
:15:25. > :15:30.England is now linking and saying it will not raise interest rates until
:15:31. > :15:34.unemployment falls below 7%. The forecasts released recently show
:15:35. > :15:37.that will happen at the end of 014 or early 2015, which means there
:15:38. > :15:41.will be a hike in interest rates for the first time in six years right
:15:42. > :15:56.before a general election. That will be interesting. If Labour were to
:15:57. > :16:00.win the next election, they will face the rising of interest rates.
:16:01. > :16:04.This is a very political business. The idea that interest rates are
:16:05. > :16:11.totally independent from anything to do with government, I would doubt
:16:12. > :16:16.it. George Osborne, part of his job was to make sure he maintains
:16:17. > :16:22.international confidence. Do you think he has succeeded? I think he
:16:23. > :16:30.has two a certain extent. Britain is well regarded internationally in
:16:31. > :16:34.many spheres. I do not think, compared to South Africa certainly,
:16:35. > :16:42.Britain certainly has much higher depth than South Africa, which is
:16:43. > :16:45.hard to believe. Financially he has served it well. They are playing
:16:46. > :16:49.around with figures and there is never an agreement between economic
:16:50. > :16:57.experts as to what is true and what is not. They IMF to say one thing
:16:58. > :17:02.and Osborne says another. He has added another year to his austerity
:17:03. > :17:09.plan. That shows literally he was way off and he is trying to find $25
:17:10. > :17:14.billion in cuts ` welfare cuts. That is a lot of money. They have already
:17:15. > :17:19.cut. A lot of people are suffering. If you listen to people on the buses
:17:20. > :17:23.and trains, they are still feeling this austerity quite seriously. To
:17:24. > :17:33.say there is more coming, I cannot imagine how many people will make
:17:34. > :17:38.it. They are still not back where they hoped things would be when this
:17:39. > :17:44.government came into power. They are miles. He said they would be back in
:17:45. > :17:49.balance by 2015. Not a chance now. He has pushed forward his target.
:17:50. > :17:53.What is interesting about this is you have a cautious, but quite
:17:54. > :17:57.ebullient at statement from the Chancellor. The next day, you read
:17:58. > :18:03.the front page of the Financial Times. OBE are, the office will
:18:04. > :18:08.budget responsibility, which Osborne himself put into place, and
:18:09. > :18:12.independent body. The Instiitute for Fiscal Studies, the arbiter of all
:18:13. > :18:17.of these things and totally independent, pitfalls of cold water
:18:18. > :18:22.on it really. It says it is rising faster than other people because it
:18:23. > :18:36.went further and deeper and longer. `` it is rising faster than they
:18:37. > :18:40.thought. There is a fact that construction is moving fast but it
:18:41. > :18:44.is minimal. There are a lot of questions. It is better to be where
:18:45. > :18:51.we are then where we were six months ago. You look at the cuts. The
:18:52. > :18:55.sturdy has hardly begun. After the next election, bigger cuts than we
:18:56. > :18:59.have ever had. All of them saying, you cannot do this. The bins will
:19:00. > :19:06.not be collected at the rate he has pencilled in. Did talk of tax rises
:19:07. > :19:12.when people are complaining that train fares have gone up and fuel
:19:13. > :19:16.has gone up... It will probably be necessary. You either run a huge
:19:17. > :19:21.deficit where if interest rates go up, it will be very expensive, or
:19:22. > :19:26.you have these kind of cuts which are politically impossible. In the
:19:27. > :19:34.end you had to pay for it. They are talking about cutting government
:19:35. > :19:39.departments even further. I'm an economic expert. I see how it
:19:40. > :19:44.affects people around me. The library closed in the area where I
:19:45. > :19:49.lived. The council took the books and the furniture and put them into
:19:50. > :19:54.storage. That is a contract they are paying monthly. The local residents
:19:55. > :19:57.took over the library. They have filled it up with books. The council
:19:58. > :20:05.has given back that furniture they took out. It has been a good speller
:20:06. > :20:12.for community action. They are not going to cap government spending any
:20:13. > :20:16.more than they have. The austerities starting to be felt by people. The
:20:17. > :20:21.Conservatives are saying they want to get the size of government down
:20:22. > :20:26.permanently and for ever to way below what we have been
:20:27. > :20:30.traditionally used to. Despite the fact a lot of local services have
:20:31. > :20:34.been cut and they are always talking endlessly about the cost of living
:20:35. > :20:35.and how people have been squeezed because their wages are not going up
:20:36. > :20:40.as quickly as prices are rising By as quickly as prices are rising. By
:20:41. > :20:47.and large, from all the polls, people seem to want to stick with
:20:48. > :20:52.the recipe of George Osborne. Labour is leading in the polls. The ratings
:20:53. > :20:56.of George Osborne, as steward of the economy, have risen recently. That
:20:57. > :21:01.is not surprising given the economic growth we have seen. I agree, a lot
:21:02. > :21:07.of the cuts back ended for after the election. It will be unclear, even
:21:08. > :21:13.if the Conservatives win, will they be able to carry that off?
:21:14. > :21:16.Forecasting that far into the future is incredibly difficult. The fact of
:21:17. > :21:22.the matter is, even with these cuts, net public debt will peak at ?1 5
:21:23. > :21:28.net public debt will peak at ?1.5 trillion. That is astonishing. Just
:21:29. > :21:32.the servicing of that debt is enormous. Something has two gives
:21:33. > :21:37.somewhere. I do not think they want to do too much before the next
:21:38. > :21:43.election. 2016 will be a very tricky year. Britain is doing better than
:21:44. > :21:47.some of the other Eurozone countries. We are not alone and
:21:48. > :21:56.still struggling to emerge from this global, financial crisis. Certainly
:21:57. > :22:04.not. Other places have survived better. Australia is doing well
:22:05. > :22:10.Britain is still, in Europe, one of the stronger countries. I suppose we
:22:11. > :22:16.can thank those who are responsible for our financial management in some
:22:17. > :22:21.ways. Given what you were talking about with the Billy Crespi which
:22:22. > :22:32.George Osborne set out, are you surprised there has not been more of
:22:33. > :22:41.a backlash against it? `` with the recipe which George Osborne set out.
:22:42. > :22:45.People think that everything is going up but what has not gone up is
:22:46. > :22:51.salaries. I am surprised there has not been a backlash. I am surprised
:22:52. > :22:54.there are not more demonstrations and public outcry is. Perhaps you
:22:55. > :22:58.are surprised that Ed Balls does not seem to be winning over the public
:22:59. > :23:04.as much as you would like. You seemed to struggle on Thursday. He
:23:05. > :23:09.had a bad performance. It was bad both in content and delivery. The
:23:10. > :23:18.delivery, I think, we feel our parliament in a very peculiar way.
:23:19. > :23:21.You do not see, or here, the full force of the bark of sound forth if
:23:22. > :23:26.you stand where he is standing, you cannot hear yourself speak. His side
:23:27. > :23:31.were not very happy. The more serious critique is that he has not
:23:32. > :23:35.decided how to grasp the enormity of what is planned for after the
:23:36. > :23:41.election. What will Labour say? They have said they will stick to the
:23:42. > :23:47.envelope. They have two say I think they will have to be honest. Either
:23:48. > :23:52.we followed through these cuts, and this is what they will mean for
:23:53. > :23:57.health, schools, roads, parks, everything. Libraries no more.
:23:58. > :24:02.Swimming pools though more. All we are going to have to pay for it.
:24:03. > :24:07.Taxes will have two rides. Whether you can win an election by being
:24:08. > :24:14.that honest, I do not know. `` taxes will have to rise. Honesty is the
:24:15. > :24:18.only hope. Just briefly, that does seem to be wed David Cameron and
:24:19. > :24:22.George Osborne are at the moment. They seem to be basing their whole
:24:23. > :24:27.approach and saying stick with us because we are on the right course.
:24:28. > :24:32.The trust and managing the economy is higher. Ed Balls has not
:24:33. > :24:35.articulated a coherent response. The articulated a coherent response. The
:24:36. > :24:41.Coalition Government has really succeeded in putting Labour on the
:24:42. > :24:46.backs that. They are trying to pass this charter with Parliamentary
:24:47. > :24:49.approval and getting everyone to commit to capping the net amount of
:24:50. > :24:56.public debt. How will Labour respond to that? They must not put
:24:57. > :25:03.themselves in a chicken situation after the next election should they
:25:04. > :25:05.win. Until they can say their plan is better, it will be difficult.
:25:06. > :25:10.win. Until they can say their plan is better, it will be difficult. We
:25:11. > :25:15.will continue right up until the next general election. We have to
:25:16. > :25:23.leave it here. That is it the be can also comment on the programme on
:25:24. > :25:25.twitter. `` that is it. You can also comment on the programme on Twitter.
:25:26. > :25:55.Goodbye. Halloo. Much, and quieter conditions
:25:56. > :25:57.as we head through the cause of the weekend. It will be often quite
:25:58. > :25:58.cloudy for much of the