:00:00. > :00:00.There's a full bulletin of news at the top of the hour. Now on BBC
:00:00. > :00:27.News, Dateline London. Hello, and welcome to Dateline
:00:28. > :00:29.London and our top team of predictors and prognosticators will
:00:30. > :00:41.talk us through the delights in store in 2014. Will the year ahead
:00:42. > :00:44.finally see the Euro crisis go away, or a different EU crisis over
:00:45. > :00:48.immigration and reform? Will there be peace across the Middle East, or
:00:49. > :00:51.at least in Syria? Will Barack Obama perform a miracle and get the
:00:52. > :00:53.Obamacare system up and running? And will the United Kingdom remain
:00:54. > :00:56.united, or will Scotland vote for independence? My guests are Eunice
:00:57. > :00:58.Goes, who is a Portuguese writer and broadcaster. Stryker McGuire of
:00:59. > :01:06.Bloomberg Markets. Abdel Bari Atwan who is an Arab writer. And Alex
:01:07. > :01:08.Deane of Conservative Home. Britain first, what are the chances
:01:09. > :01:11.Scotland will want to declare independence? What would be the
:01:12. > :01:17.consequences for British politics? And what else should we be wary of
:01:18. > :01:22.in a pre-General election year? Scottish independence, one of the
:01:23. > :01:29.big events this year. Is it fair to say, most English people have not
:01:30. > :01:35.paid much attention to it? Over the last few years, there has been an
:01:36. > :01:39.increasing tension amongst English voters about the amount of money
:01:40. > :01:45.going north of the border. It has been stirred up by some politicians.
:01:46. > :01:51.The Conservative Party has an in-built disadvantage because of the
:01:52. > :01:56.way that Scotland votes, generally helping Labour. But all of the
:01:57. > :02:07.polling suggests they will not vote to become independent. Not much of
:02:08. > :02:12.-- not much -- no matter how much of an emotional pull there is to do so.
:02:13. > :02:19.David Cameron has said it is ahead over hearts thing. I would hope
:02:20. > :02:24.there was a bit of hearts attached to the union as well, the great
:02:25. > :02:38.achievements that have been one bar aren't two nations working in
:02:39. > :02:44.tandem. -- have been achieved. It is something that plays quite big
:02:45. > :02:50.in a pre-election year. He did not get the boundary changes through.
:02:51. > :03:01.Some countries have dispassionate systems whereby boundary changes are
:03:02. > :03:08.approved by a third party, hours are approved by parliament. Even if
:03:09. > :03:14.Scotland does remain independent, there will be no change. 2014 will
:03:15. > :03:26.be seen as a prism of the 20 15th general election. -- 2015 general
:03:27. > :03:32.election. The discussion is whether UKIP will come first in the European
:03:33. > :03:37.elections. That will create a crisis.
:03:38. > :03:42.How do you see the year ahead for British politics? Those are the main
:03:43. > :03:53.issues. Underlying it all is the economic thing. The image of Britain
:03:54. > :03:57.is very weak now. On the whole international scene, you do not have
:03:58. > :04:05.a strong leader, a strong Prime Minister. You have a hesitant Prime
:04:06. > :04:16.Minister. The economy is the basic thing. When I say weak leadership,
:04:17. > :04:23.when Britain was vigorous and was a drive to intervene in Syria, as they
:04:24. > :04:32.did in Libya, suddenly the cooled down and retreated completely. The
:04:33. > :04:44.second thing is the economy. It is very problematic, the national debt
:04:45. > :04:52.is very high. Britain is divided here. And again hesitant. Whether it
:04:53. > :04:58.be a European or not, whether they want to stay in the European union
:04:59. > :05:06.or not. This kind of hesitation destroys the image of Britain.
:05:07. > :05:12.Coming to Scotland, I believe if this referendum took place ten years
:05:13. > :05:20.ago, I believe the outcome would be different. But small states suffer
:05:21. > :05:29.in Europe when the economic crisis hits. Scots people are very wise.
:05:30. > :05:44.They say, why should we have independence? But they could join
:05:45. > :05:59.the oil producers in the Arab states! I do not know if Alex
:06:00. > :06:05.Salmond has considered that. How do you see British politics in the year
:06:06. > :06:10.ahead? That question of weak leadership, if you have a coalition
:06:11. > :06:16.government, with you always have weak leadership? I do take his point
:06:17. > :06:26.about leadership, but I think that is connected in part to the state of
:06:27. > :06:31.Britain. This country is a less powerful country than it used to be.
:06:32. > :06:38.Just take the point about Syria. There was a hue and cry in this
:06:39. > :06:46.country about intervening in Syria. But it did not happen because that
:06:47. > :06:48.meant they wanted the United States to intervene. The UK cannot
:06:49. > :06:56.intervene. It does not have the power any more. The military power
:06:57. > :07:02.is declining. It did not happen because the government did not make
:07:03. > :07:09.the case in Parliament. Think parliamentarians take the decision
:07:10. > :07:17.to go to war seriously. Tony Blair made the case in the House of
:07:18. > :07:21.Commons, David Cameron did not. Tony Blair was able to do that because
:07:22. > :07:34.the United States had already decided to intervene. In 2014, the
:07:35. > :07:45.weakness is also true of the United States. Look what happened the last
:07:46. > :07:49.time. Iraq, Afghanistan. The Presidents does not cry out for
:07:50. > :07:58.intervention, they cry out for caution, for hesitancy. Intervention
:07:59. > :08:09.does not have to be bombing people. There are other ways. In 2014, there
:08:10. > :08:14.are other things which Europeans could have done to help the people
:08:15. > :08:22.of Syria, other than military action. Of course, they could have
:08:23. > :08:28.taken more refugees. In terms of how you see British politics, what do
:08:29. > :08:33.you think? It will be a year of preparation for the general
:08:34. > :08:36.election. David Cameron will be looking at the referendum in
:08:37. > :08:49.Scotland cautiously. It is unlikely that the yes will win, but the
:08:50. > :08:54.campaign has to be managed well. But this question will be posed in ten
:08:55. > :09:00.years because there is an interesting generational divide.
:09:01. > :09:04.Younger people are more keen on independence than older people. If
:09:05. > :09:10.the question is asked again in ten years, there might be a different
:09:11. > :09:14.answer. There will be changes in the constitutional make-up of the United
:09:15. > :09:26.Kingdom. Britain is becoming more federal. Scotland is on the verge of
:09:27. > :09:31.getting more powers, wheels are -- Wales is on the verge of getting
:09:32. > :09:36.more powers. And there will be more changes in England and Britain in
:09:37. > :09:41.the next ten years. You have not mentioned what the
:09:42. > :09:56.Labour Party would have to do. What is Ed Miliband's task in 2014 given
:09:57. > :10:02.that the opinion polls say that the right wing parties are ahead of
:10:03. > :10:11.Labour. There was an interesting reaction to his speech, the speech
:10:12. > :10:14.that Ed Miliband made in October. He has two build on that. He has two
:10:15. > :10:33.raises profile and come up with something more visionary. -- he has
:10:34. > :10:43.to raise his provile. -- profile. I say Ed Miliband in that role of
:10:44. > :10:48.carrying on with business. I think they are betting on that. Betting on
:10:49. > :10:55.small, gradual changes to win the election. Looking ahead,
:10:56. > :11:02.politically, no one has mentioned the Liberal Democrats yet. We all
:11:03. > :11:15.laugh about the Liberal Democrats, but they are now occupying the
:11:16. > :11:21.centre which is always elect only -- electorally rich. They are the butt
:11:22. > :11:28.of jokes, but they could be in the next coalition government. They
:11:29. > :11:44.could go either way. With either of the other two parties. They are by
:11:45. > :11:52.political -- bi-political. Angela Merkel has been re-elected,
:11:53. > :11:57.Ireland coming out of trouble, how do you see 2014 for the European
:11:58. > :12:02.countries? It has been suggested that social unrest in Portugal,
:12:03. > :12:08.Italy, Spain is possible, even likely? I do not believe that
:12:09. > :12:17.because social unrest would have had to have happened by now. The rate of
:12:18. > :12:23.unemployment is declining. People are getting used to the situation.
:12:24. > :12:32.That does not mean the end of the crisis. It is going to be a very
:12:33. > :12:38.long crisis. Particularly for the countries are affected by austerity.
:12:39. > :12:43.Southern Europe and Ireland so almost 1 million people emigrating,
:12:44. > :12:50.leaving their own countries and going elsewhere, perhaps never to
:12:51. > :12:58.return again. We are talking about university graduates, the talented
:12:59. > :13:02.workforce. For southern Europe, all these political advances of the past
:13:03. > :13:10.30 years, it is a huge setback. Poverty has come back as we had
:13:11. > :13:14.during the Dick leadership. -- dictatorship. There will be
:13:15. > :13:24.demonstrations, but people are far too weak. People feel that they
:13:25. > :13:33.cannot do anything. If you ask people what they want, they want
:13:34. > :13:36.money to spend in a shopping centre. There are three major challenges
:13:37. > :13:41.facing Europe next year. And possibly the year after. The first
:13:42. > :13:55.one is how to be formed the European Union. -- to be reforming. The
:13:56. > :14:05.second challenge is the changing of the political map in Europe. The
:14:06. > :14:23.populists are prevailing. UKIP is moving ahead and taking a lot of
:14:24. > :14:28.popularity. Marie the -- Marie LePen in France, there is a lot of talk of
:14:29. > :14:35.her winning the next election. Thirdly, immigration. The movement
:14:36. > :14:41.of people in Europe. Outside immigration coming from the south.
:14:42. > :14:46.There is a belt of failed states around Europe. For the first time,
:14:47. > :14:54.we can say this, especially in the south of Europe. Immigration cannot
:14:55. > :15:00.be controlled into Europe. There is a civil war in Europe, another war
:15:01. > :15:05.spreading to Lebanon. This is the belt which is around Europe. And
:15:06. > :15:10.also the poverty of states in Africa around Europe. These are the
:15:11. > :15:18.challenges facing Europe in the coming year and a year after. So
:15:19. > :15:23.they are going to handle that. And how to keep Britain in the European
:15:24. > :15:31.union. I agree, the economic problem, unemployment is better now.
:15:32. > :15:37.Except for Spain where it is very high.
:15:38. > :15:42.You raised the leadership question before, the leadership of Europe.
:15:43. > :15:59.Can Engel on their -- can Angela Merkel lead? They have improved
:16:00. > :16:02.quicker than everybody else in the crisis but that has ebbed away and
:16:03. > :16:08.the other major powerhouse, France, is in terrible trouble. If they can
:16:09. > :16:13.find more ways to mess up their economy, they would adopt them as
:16:14. > :16:20.well. The numbers are in the toilet and approval ratings are dire.
:16:21. > :16:26.London is increasingly a hub for management consultants and anyone
:16:27. > :16:30.who will get a higher rate than in France. It is your point about
:16:31. > :16:34.talented and bright people fleeing the failing economies. The French
:16:35. > :16:39.are pushing their brightest and best out by pushing them in tax. On your
:16:40. > :16:43.staff about the three age challenges, I don't disagree with
:16:44. > :16:46.any of that but albeit on a populist movement, some of the major parties
:16:47. > :16:55.have got themselves to blame for leaving fertile political ground and
:16:56. > :16:59.occupied for UKIP and other parties. The Conservatives delivered in
:17:00. > :17:04.part. On your final point, what have we got to do to keep written in? He
:17:05. > :17:10.must bear in mind there is a number of us who are on a hopefully mature
:17:11. > :17:15.basis, we don't want to be in it any more and we are not restricted to
:17:16. > :17:20.UKIP. Having said all of that, it's interesting to remember that two
:17:21. > :17:24.years ago, a lot of people, including IBO sitting around this
:17:25. > :17:29.table, were talking about the dissolution of these eurozone, the
:17:30. > :17:36.collapse of the EU. Sometimes we underestimate the heart
:17:37. > :17:39.that is behind the concept of the European Union, for all of its
:17:40. > :17:48.failings, there remains this desire to keep things together so that when
:17:49. > :17:51.there was the Euro crisis, Europe, led by Germany, pulled together in a
:17:52. > :18:00.financial way and build-out anybody who needed it. It failed off -- it
:18:01. > :18:03.bailed out the banks. It is important to say this because
:18:04. > :18:08.it wasn't bailing out economies that were doing relatively well. Look at
:18:09. > :18:15.Ireland and Spain in particular. But the Greeks... Greece was the only
:18:16. > :18:22.exception. And Merkel saved German banks. The bailouts have been a
:18:23. > :18:27.bumping business for the German economy.
:18:28. > :18:33.But do you accept the point that the EU has proved more resilient?
:18:34. > :18:39.It has and it is a miracle. Merkel has not really led. She has muddled
:18:40. > :18:42.through and made lots of mistakes along the way. It is a miracle it
:18:43. > :18:51.has survived. It is a one-man show in Europe, it
:18:52. > :18:59.is a show. There is no leadership. Look at France. He is not a leader.
:19:00. > :19:05.Look at David Cameron, with respect to my friend Alex. There is no
:19:06. > :19:10.leadership. This is the problem. It is a one-man show, Barack Obama.
:19:11. > :19:14.In 2014, we will be looking back 100 years to the beginning of the First
:19:15. > :19:20.World War and some of the lessons we can learn from that and also a
:19:21. > :19:25.thought that in 1913 OBE could have predicted the catastrophe. Interview
:19:26. > :19:30.minutes we have left, could we talk a little bit about what we predict
:19:31. > :19:35.for the year ahead, some of the less easy things to understand. In the
:19:36. > :19:44.Arab world, festival, reflecting on what has happened in Lebanon on Mac
:19:45. > :19:51.-- Lebanon and it looks like it could be a grim year.
:19:52. > :19:58.Negotiation and confrontation. Negotiation is between Iran and the
:19:59. > :20:02.superpowers so we know there is agreement. There is other
:20:03. > :20:07.negotiation now between them and the Israelis. Confrontation - we have a
:20:08. > :20:14.huge confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran with Syria and
:20:15. > :20:22.Lebanon so the whole of the Middle East is a mess. There was a car bomb
:20:23. > :20:24.it a couple of days ago in Lebanon and it is very frightening because
:20:25. > :20:30.that can spill over to the neighbouring countries. It could be
:20:31. > :20:39.Iraq and is could be Jordan soon. Most of them are failed states. We
:20:40. > :20:44.have Libya and Syria and Lebanon. Egypt could be seen and that is the
:20:45. > :20:49.biggest... Sectarianism is the other would
:20:50. > :20:51.which makes it much more difficult to resolve because these are not
:20:52. > :20:55.straightforward political differences.
:20:56. > :21:03.This is the problem and the media is playing a major role in inflaming
:21:04. > :21:09.this. Arab media. There was media inflaming problems
:21:10. > :21:15.but now the Arab media, which is very advanced, is actually inflaming
:21:16. > :21:19.the sectarian divisions and this is dangerous.
:21:20. > :21:26.People in the Gulf in particular and Saudi Arabia and Lebanon are now
:21:27. > :21:30.talking about divisions. They are not talking about left and right,
:21:31. > :21:38.they are talking about sectarian divisions and the hatred is
:21:39. > :21:43.escalating. You can see today today the Shia Muslims were accused of the
:21:44. > :21:49.car bomb. We don't know what will happen and there is no solution.
:21:50. > :21:52.There is no talks. They are talking to the Americans successfully and
:21:53. > :21:58.they managed to reach an agreement that the Saudis and uranium don't
:21:59. > :22:03.want to talk -- in aliens. I'm afraid there is nothing good
:22:04. > :22:07.coming out of South Sudan situation and a tax on Christian communities
:22:08. > :22:14.will be followed by increasingly strident pro-Christian rhetoric from
:22:15. > :22:16.Western countries. Domestic predictions-I think the coalition
:22:17. > :22:24.will stay together. There was speculation about them coming
:22:25. > :22:29.apart. It won't. In January I think we will see an apology from the
:22:30. > :22:32.Labour Party to Thomas the Tank Engine, which in the dying days of
:22:33. > :22:39.2013 they have accused of being sexist. It is the worst bit of PR
:22:40. > :22:45.from a government in a long time. The coaches are appalled by the...
:22:46. > :22:51.You can't mess with Thomas the Tank Engine.
:22:52. > :22:59.You that says it all, really! I was trying to think of a link
:23:00. > :23:04.between that and Obama's 2014. In terms of a prediction, Obamacare,
:23:05. > :23:10.which nobody can define and nobody knows what it is, but actually,
:23:11. > :23:15.having been back there recently, it is working in many ways. This idea
:23:16. > :23:20.of insurance exchanges, competition among insurance companies.
:23:21. > :23:25.Bizarrely, is working but it's working slowly and getting bad PR. I
:23:26. > :23:29.the end of next year, I think it will have a better great than it
:23:30. > :23:33.does now. A point I wanted to make, we've talked about leadership and
:23:34. > :23:40.hesitancy. One of the things to remember is that the rise of Asia
:23:41. > :23:43.and the Asian economies has made leadership in the so-called West
:23:44. > :23:48.much more difficult than it used to be. The world is much more
:23:49. > :23:55.complicated because of globalisation. We don't have to
:23:56. > :24:00.clear superpowers any more, the way we did 20 or 30 years ago. It is
:24:01. > :24:07.corrugated and you end up with leaders that seem hesitant and
:24:08. > :24:13.waffle, whether it's a bummer for Cameron or -- whether it is Barack
:24:14. > :24:20.Obama or Cameron or Merkel. Or the guy from France... I forget!
:24:21. > :24:24.One point we haven't touched on which could be important is Japan
:24:25. > :24:29.and China, the confrontation potential. The countries from
:24:30. > :24:35.outside that area don't really remember the names of the islands.
:24:36. > :24:42.That has the potential to change the entire world if it goes wrong.
:24:43. > :24:46.It does. I don't it will get to that point -- I don't think it will get
:24:47. > :24:51.to that point but living here, we know that islands are very sensitive
:24:52. > :24:57.things. Something like that could. Whether that would be the equivalent
:24:58. > :25:03.of what triggered World War I, for example, which was also a kind of
:25:04. > :25:07.accidental... And they thought it was irrational
:25:08. > :25:10.that anybody would go to a great war over...
:25:11. > :25:17.Those islands are bound up in emotion and they are bound up with
:25:18. > :25:20.right to take minerals. As a counterpoint to week leadership, I
:25:21. > :25:25.think 2014 could be the year of the people in the sense that week
:25:26. > :25:27.leaders are a sign that leaders who have to be more accountable and
:25:28. > :25:33.transparent. We have to pay attention to what
:25:34. > :25:36.voters want so this could be a triumph of democracy as politicians
:25:37. > :25:43.have to pay attention to the voters. There has been a lot of
:25:44. > :25:46.unrest over the world and discontent. It a lot of voter apathy
:25:47. > :25:54.and people who are fed up with our politics. And this prediction on
:25:55. > :25:58.wishful thinking on people power, maybe Edward Snowden, who did us a
:25:59. > :26:04.great favour in bringing greater transparency and knowing more about
:26:05. > :26:08.our leaders, maybe we will get an amnesty or a pardon from the US to
:26:09. > :26:14.go home. That would be my wishful thinking, rather than prediction.
:26:15. > :26:19.I believe next year could be the year of China because... You say
:26:20. > :26:28.that every year! You can see China achieve a huge
:26:29. > :26:34.economic success and now they are concentrating on politics. They are
:26:35. > :26:40.involved in the Middle East and our construct an -- and are constructing
:26:41. > :26:44.a vigorous foreign policy. America is withdrawing from the Middle East
:26:45. > :26:46.and concentrating on... We will leave it there.
:26:47. > :26:51.I noticed none of the predicted England will win the World Cup! We
:26:52. > :26:55.will see. That is it from us for this year. We will be that next year
:26:56. > :27:28.and next week at the same time. You can contact us on Twitter. Goodbye.
:27:29. > :27:34.Much quieter conditions for this weekend as we get respite from the
:27:35. > :27:36.storms and lighter winds across the country and a bit more in the way of