:00:00. > 3:59:59There's a full bulletin of news at the top of the hour, now on BBC News
:00:00. > :00:25.Dateline London with Gavin Esler. Hello and welcome to Dateline
:00:26. > :00:29.London. The fear of immigration in Britain and the European Union. The
:00:30. > :00:33.killings in South Sudan and ethnic tensions. Plus, is 2014 the year the
:00:34. > :00:36.worst is over for the British economy? My guests today are
:00:37. > :00:38.Stephanie Baker of Bloomberg Markets, Nesrine Malik who is a
:00:39. > :00:46.Sudanese journalist, Abdallah Homouda who is an Egyptian writer
:00:47. > :00:49.and David Aaronovitch of the Times. British newspapers have been full of
:00:50. > :00:52.concern - real or imaginary - that many immigrants from Romania and
:00:53. > :00:57.Bulgaria are on their way to take British jobs or claim British
:00:58. > :00:59.welfare. How far do politicians have to react to public concerns, and how
:01:00. > :01:09.far does immigration contribute to the British public's rather dim view
:01:10. > :01:18.of the European Union? Is this a real concern? They are really
:01:19. > :01:25.concerned about it. Whether or not their concern is well-placed is
:01:26. > :01:30.different. I am a pretty well-known supporter of freedom of movement and
:01:31. > :01:36.of migration because what tends to happen is that people go to where
:01:37. > :01:41.the jobs are for them, they tend to be the most motivated people anyway
:01:42. > :01:47.so what happens is economies become strengthened as a result of people
:01:48. > :01:53.coming in. We have had this movement from the old notion of immigration
:01:54. > :02:00.words these were horrible foreigners who were somehow inferior to us to a
:02:01. > :02:06.sort of inferiority complex to immigrants. They are pricing our
:02:07. > :02:12.young people out of jobs and so on because they are better at them all
:02:13. > :02:18.will take the jobs for less money. The truth is probably be our net
:02:19. > :02:24.beneficiaries from migration but certain places at the bottom of the
:02:25. > :02:29.labour market, their rears and impact on poor people with less
:02:30. > :02:35.skilled jobs but that is not what people are concerned about. People
:02:36. > :02:39.are most concerned about immigration for the country but strangely enough
:02:40. > :02:43.polls showed they are not desperately worried about
:02:44. > :02:51.immigration in their own local area. That suggests is you are dealing
:02:52. > :02:57.with a perception problem. In terms of politics, do you think that it is
:02:58. > :03:08.possible for a politician in Britain to say and get elected and do very
:03:09. > :03:13.well, say it is fine? You can perfectly well... Labour says we
:03:14. > :03:20.have to apologise for past immigration although actually we do
:03:21. > :03:28.not think it is wrong. But on the other hand, every time you make,
:03:29. > :03:32.bring in a new measure to stop new migrants claiming benefits when very
:03:33. > :03:40.few do anyway, the message that actually gets sent out is yes, this
:03:41. > :03:45.is a big problem. Every time Labour apologises for immigration, I think
:03:46. > :03:50.I see another percentage on the polls for UKIP rather than Labour.
:03:51. > :03:54.Labour would be better off saying immigration is a good thing but the
:03:55. > :04:00.main thing we want to talk about is the economy. This debate is not
:04:01. > :04:06.confined to Britain but it is also Germany. Angela Merkel has broken
:04:07. > :04:12.off her holiday to discuss it because within her own party this
:04:13. > :04:17.has become a hot potato for exactly the same reasons - fear from people
:04:18. > :04:26.from the poorer parts of Europe will take German jobs or German welfare.
:04:27. > :04:32.What I am not sure about is how much of it is media driven and how much
:04:33. > :04:40.is actual concerned. The two feed into each other. On the 1st of
:04:41. > :04:44.January when journalists went to the airport to meet Bulgarians and
:04:45. > :04:52.Romanians was really embarrassing. I thought this was a very bad luck for
:04:53. > :04:57.the UK. I thought, actually, I am not sure of that is not just some
:04:58. > :05:02.editor on a slow day thinking this would be a fun thing to do as
:05:03. > :05:11.opposed to this being something that has bubbled up from the mainstream
:05:12. > :05:15.of Britain. People are worried about immigration and there are social
:05:16. > :05:21.tensions. The role of the media and the sensationalism of the story also
:05:22. > :05:29.cannot be underestimated. You have seen Nigel Farage saying that in
:05:30. > :05:33.times of refugees and people suffering from humanitarian
:05:34. > :05:39.catastrophes in places like Syria, they should be accepted into Britain
:05:40. > :05:46.and then going into reverse gear and sane Christians would be acceptable
:05:47. > :05:53.to Britain. It is outrageous. The second thing is that the social
:05:54. > :05:57.concerns about immigration are legitimate and politicians should
:05:58. > :06:02.engage with them. Economic concerns about immigration are difficult to
:06:03. > :06:08.explain because they are complicated and there is evidence that net
:06:09. > :06:12.immigration has helped the economy. Social issues need to be addressed.
:06:13. > :06:19.It is hard to talk to an English person who says, I need to feel like
:06:20. > :06:25.I am in the UK, I think that is something politicians should take
:06:26. > :06:29.seriously. It is also suggested that people who are in favour of free
:06:30. > :06:34.movement of people are not the people most affected when immigrants
:06:35. > :06:43.come into this country. I would agree with David. Most of the data
:06:44. > :06:50.shows that immigration is a boon to economies. This country has an
:06:51. > :06:56.ageing population. It needs a new young workforce to help cover the
:06:57. > :07:01.expenses of increasing pensioners. The office of National statistics
:07:02. > :07:06.came up with this figure that is somewhat telling. They estimated
:07:07. > :07:11.that Britain needs 7 million migrants over the next 50 years to
:07:12. > :07:17.keep the national debt down. Migrants are more likely to be
:07:18. > :07:23.working, paying taxes, creating jobs and a lot of the Romanians already
:07:24. > :07:30.here, working, a big chunk of them are educated and 85% are under the
:07:31. > :07:36.age of 35. That is the kind of migration that Britain should be
:07:37. > :07:43.encouraging and I think it is a mistake to pander to Nigel Farage.
:07:44. > :07:48.Go back to the point I made to David but you do hear that argument in
:07:49. > :07:54.some newspapers and other groups but you tend not to hear it from the
:07:55. > :08:00.political classes because it is very unpopular. It is but it is a losing
:08:01. > :08:07.game. The Conservative party pandering to UKIP is only handing
:08:08. > :08:12.them greater power and legitimising the issue. Instead of saying this is
:08:13. > :08:21.about our economy and the kind of country we want to be,
:08:22. > :08:28.about our economy and the kind of making a big mistake by pandering to
:08:29. > :08:40.UKIP on this. It is ironic that the problem of Eastern European
:08:41. > :08:49.immigrants has been created by Britain's... And enthusiasm not
:08:50. > :08:59.shared by other countries. The problem stems from the stereotyping
:09:00. > :09:06.of the people you see at traffic lights trying to force the washing
:09:07. > :09:11.of your Windows screen or walking with an empty paper cup begging.
:09:12. > :09:16.This is not the whole picture. These people contribute to the economy.
:09:17. > :09:22.The problem comes from the difficulty of Britain, which Britain
:09:23. > :09:28.faces at this stage because they cannot profile the incoming people
:09:29. > :09:34.within the EU legislation which allowed the freedom of movement.
:09:35. > :09:42.There has to be some more clearance in addressing the issue, not leading
:09:43. > :09:46.it to deep tabloids and far right to hijack it and create some kind of
:09:47. > :09:53.enlightenment and learning amongst the people to accept there newcomers
:09:54. > :09:58.and help them. Britain is one of the most tolerant countries towards
:09:59. > :10:05.immigration regardless of the noises made now. The problem is how to use
:10:06. > :10:08.them in, into the right position to make the contribution required.
:10:09. > :10:10.Thousands of people are believed to have been killed in fighting in
:10:11. > :10:12.South Sudan. Political rivalries appear to have aggravated
:10:13. > :10:20.inter-ethnic tensions. Is the survival of Africa's newest nation
:10:21. > :10:24.at risk? It is difficult to get some of the facts on the ground but it
:10:25. > :10:30.does seem as if there has been a terrible amount of killing and that
:10:31. > :10:35.the peace talks are going nowhere. It has been hard to get information
:10:36. > :10:44.on the ground. There has been estimates of 1000-10,000 deaths
:10:45. > :10:48.within the last few weeks. There are a bunch of correspondence in the
:10:49. > :10:56.capital but it has been hard to get information. The problem in South
:10:57. > :10:59.Sudan is that it is fundamentally a political problem of concentration
:11:00. > :11:06.of power in the hands of the president. There are talks of it
:11:07. > :11:10.being a coup when it was a dispute that escalated and then developed
:11:11. > :11:16.along ethnic lines. I think even though there has spent a lot of
:11:17. > :11:19.quite worrying reports from South Sudan about ethnic profiling and
:11:20. > :11:25.people being tested by language before being killed, that in terms
:11:26. > :11:32.of African conflicts, it is a record amount of time that has got these
:11:33. > :11:42.two presidents already at the negotiating table. It is a miracle
:11:43. > :11:47.and that is because it is of international pressure. This was a
:11:48. > :11:55.state created on behalf of Christian missionaries, and a lot of dairy
:11:56. > :11:58.powerful southern Sudan lobbying in the White House. The challenge now
:11:59. > :12:06.is all the work that should have been done when the comprehensive
:12:07. > :12:16.peace agreement was signed is going to be done now, needs to be done
:12:17. > :12:20.now. It was a nation created from a referendum but there was no
:12:21. > :12:26.political structure put in and there was no recognition of the fact that
:12:27. > :12:30.South Sudan had its own problems. It was always cast as a victim of the
:12:31. > :12:46.North but any scenario which said South Sudan should was not the good
:12:47. > :12:50.guy would have to go deal with. The headlines of the New York Times says
:12:51. > :12:56.the American administration is very concerned about the failure of its
:12:57. > :13:08.newly created state to its liking. There was a great deal for
:13:09. > :13:14.independence to take place. South Sudanese talk about the fact that
:13:15. > :13:20.the country should have been under the auspices of the UN for at least
:13:21. > :13:26.ten years. We should not forget the background of the ethnic and
:13:27. > :13:33.political practices because each of the two protagonistss used to deal
:13:34. > :13:38.with the North at the expense of each other prior to having their own
:13:39. > :13:47.state. Actually it is a very difficult situation. If America
:13:48. > :14:01.helps, it will be really a respite to 4.4 million people who are on
:14:02. > :14:07.humanitarian aid. Tens of thousands, 200,000 displaced, tens
:14:08. > :14:14.of thousands outside the country. The killings are not quantified as
:14:15. > :14:19.correct yet. It is a very difficult situation but all this contributes
:14:20. > :14:26.to the lack of vision in South Sudan as much as in the Sudan and also one
:14:27. > :14:30.has not to forget the history to establish South Sudan and create
:14:31. > :14:39.this kind of new instability is due to Western intervention in order to
:14:40. > :14:47.wreck Sudan and prevent China taking the benefit of the Sudanese oil as a
:14:48. > :14:54.part of the rush to Africa. Speaking of China, the national oil company
:14:55. > :15:01.is one of the biggest investors in South Sudan and I think the risk now
:15:02. > :15:06.is what started as a sort of political rivalry has now become an
:15:07. > :15:11.ethnic conflict and that could descend into a conflict over the
:15:12. > :15:22.country 's oil revenues. South Sudan is the thirds largest producer,
:15:23. > :15:26.there is a lot of money for grabs. I think there are a lot of foreign
:15:27. > :15:32.companies investing in oil in South Sudan and I think that can be used
:15:33. > :15:39.as leveraged to bring the parties to the negotiating table and make sure
:15:40. > :15:51.those were macro that is not used to fuel the conflict further.
:15:52. > :15:55.Sometimes it is a lot easier to deal with the Chinese because what they
:15:56. > :15:58.want is fairly clear. They want the resources and they are prepared to
:15:59. > :16:03.pay for it. They can do a deal and they do not go on and on about human
:16:04. > :16:10.rights in the way that the Americans on the British tried to do. Is that
:16:11. > :16:12.a fair point? I wish that the Chinese government would care a
:16:13. > :16:16.little bit more about human rights but I would agree with you, they are
:16:17. > :16:23.very practical and they have got one clear rain but in this case, the
:16:24. > :16:26.Chinese have urged both parties to come to the negotiating table. It is
:16:27. > :16:34.an instance where you can get support from the United States,
:16:35. > :16:38.France, broad-based international support for a peace process to bring
:16:39. > :16:46.them all to the negotiating table. Stability is bad for business. I am
:16:47. > :16:54.not going to claim to be an expert on South Sudan. Part of the problem
:16:55. > :16:59.is that you can quite easily see why it was necessary, essential, for
:17:00. > :17:04.South Sudan to be created and probably was too long delayed. And I
:17:05. > :17:08.suppose in a sense you create an idealisation about what will happen
:17:09. > :17:11.when something you have long sought for in terms of policy actually
:17:12. > :17:16.takes place. And the situation is far more compact than that. Of
:17:17. > :17:18.course, you put off looking at the problems of independence until you
:17:19. > :17:26.have independence because in some ways, it seems pointless looking at
:17:27. > :17:32.those problems when you have not cottage. It is highly problematic.
:17:33. > :17:34.But since the issue has come up, I would markedly prefer the Compaq 's
:17:35. > :17:40.dealings of British companies and British government -- complex, which
:17:41. > :17:45.has some attitude towards human rights than countries that have no
:17:46. > :17:50.attitude towards human rights, or rather deny them. It strikes me that
:17:51. > :17:58.is not actually wear any future that is tolerable lies. I think the
:17:59. > :18:04.danger now is this ethnic scenario develops and actually gains currency
:18:05. > :18:06.and it would be disastrous because you are all right, international
:18:07. > :18:11.pressure has got them to the negotiating table, if there is much
:18:12. > :18:15.to lose, neither President or Vice President will have any interest in
:18:16. > :18:19.war because the spoils will be very few. However, if there is a push for
:18:20. > :18:25.an ethnic division of the spoils, handing out of warranty and pieces
:18:26. > :18:30.of the cake, tried by tried, that establishes and validates it. We
:18:31. > :18:33.need a political solution that quiet and down the tribal tension as
:18:34. > :18:37.opposed to Stoke said and validates it.
:18:38. > :18:41.We turn out to potentially the good news. One of the hopes for 2014 is
:18:42. > :18:48.we may finally see the back of the international economic crisis. Is
:18:49. > :18:55.Britain finally out of trouble or will the continuing rows prove the
:18:56. > :19:02.biggest political story of the year? Are we right to be optimistic? A
:19:03. > :19:11.year ago, people were irrepressibly gloomy.
:19:12. > :19:15.Yes, there is no question, 2014 will be better than 2013. Economic growth
:19:16. > :19:21.will be higher this year than last. But I think we have had five years
:19:22. > :19:27.of inflation out facing wage growth and that is set to continue next
:19:28. > :19:32.year. We have the sixth year of wage growth going behind inflation. I
:19:33. > :19:35.think the Labour Party has done a remarkable job of reframing the
:19:36. > :19:40.debate as one of a cost of living crisis and moving it away from the
:19:41. > :19:46.Conservative charges that it was Labour that created this mess. I
:19:47. > :19:49.think that issue is not going to go away. The cost of living crisis will
:19:50. > :19:57.not go away, even if there is economic growth. On the other hand,
:19:58. > :20:00.if you believe the bullish reductions and estimates, the UK
:20:01. > :20:04.could have the fastest growing economy in the European Union. And
:20:05. > :20:14.we will be by the end of the year the economy, the economy will be
:20:15. > :20:16.back to pre-recession levels. The question is how does that trickle
:20:17. > :20:22.down because I think some of the in employment has not been that
:20:23. > :20:28.highly, considering the depth of the recession. -- unemployment. One of
:20:29. > :20:35.the reasons for that is a lot of the jobs created have been part-time.
:20:36. > :20:38.And so I think there is a risk that there will be an economic recovery
:20:39. > :20:44.but the kind of economy we are getting is a sort of low-wage, low
:20:45. > :20:49.productivity economy that only benefits asserting people.
:20:50. > :20:56.Conventional wisdom is growing economies tend to benefit
:20:57. > :21:01.governments in power, UKIP plus the Tories, you'll have more people in
:21:02. > :21:08.this country telling the opinion polls that they are to the left of
:21:09. > :21:12.-- right of centre. The Labour leader Neil polls is roughly half of
:21:13. > :21:24.what it was a year ago. This is on the basis of poll trending -- the
:21:25. > :21:31.Labour lead in the polls. What will happen in the meantime? There is a
:21:32. > :21:34.very credible argument to be made that what the Conservative Party
:21:35. > :21:38.needs is a steady but not high level of growth. If you get a high level
:21:39. > :21:42.of growth, the question becomes, why don't I sharing the fruits of this
:21:43. > :21:47.growth question mark if you have a low-level, but growth nevertheless,
:21:48. > :21:54.it allows the governor to say we are turning the corner, don't spoil
:21:55. > :22:00.things. -- the government. That is essentially the way that probably
:22:01. > :22:07.the ground politics is to it. We are heading for another hung parliament,
:22:08. > :22:09.probably. And you have probably mention this in a different
:22:10. > :22:14.programme, nothing to do with the economy, but we have a Scottish
:22:15. > :22:19.referendum this coming year which could completely wreck the British
:22:20. > :22:25.constitution and the prospects for the 2015 election itself. People
:22:26. > :22:30.have not talked about that. It would not be great for David Cameron
:22:31. > :22:40.either, the by Minister who presides over the break-up of the United
:22:41. > :22:45.Kingdom. -- the Prime Minister. In terms of the economy, one of the
:22:46. > :22:48.interesting issues is there was a recent survey of business in Britain
:22:49. > :22:52.suggesting that regulation, increased regulation, is one of
:22:53. > :22:56.their big fears. It is hardly surprising when people think that
:22:57. > :23:00.there are problems in the energy market, they look at major American
:23:01. > :23:04.companies in particular which seem to be paying less, let's put it this
:23:05. > :23:07.way, less than you would expect in terms of taxation in Britain and
:23:08. > :23:12.that this thing that is causing great concern. There is a mistress
:23:13. > :23:18.generally of the regulator, post-financial crisis, because
:23:19. > :23:21.people feel it is either over regulated or underregulated and the
:23:22. > :23:27.elite of the financial classes and the big banks and institutions are
:23:28. > :23:33.need kids Pollard staged -- are in the pockets of politicians. The
:23:34. > :23:36.interesting thing I think is that there is definitely recovery, things
:23:37. > :23:40.are certainly better, but the next thing when that happens is if there
:23:41. > :23:46.is a recovery, the first thing is that the stabilisers need to come
:23:47. > :23:49.off. There has been a recovery because interest rates have been
:23:50. > :24:01.kept artificially low for a long time. There is a peg on
:24:02. > :24:08.unemployment. People are saying, it will be kicked
:24:09. > :24:11.further down to 2016. The interesting thing is when there are
:24:12. > :24:15.Green shoots of recovery, people will have to take the stabilisers
:24:16. > :24:20.off the economy and then we are wobbly, the house market is
:24:21. > :24:26.exploding, it has been 10% over the past six months, the south again is
:24:27. > :24:31.leading it, there have been 45% of mortgages to first time buyer is,
:24:32. > :24:35.people are screaming bubble already. I think it is so fascinating in the
:24:36. > :24:38.UK that whenever there is a sense of recovery, and recovery in the
:24:39. > :24:45.housing market, the first thing people think of, where is the next
:24:46. > :24:53.crash? Before we have even seen it. People will start talking about that
:24:54. > :24:59.soon. I beg to differ. I am on the side of caution. If one believes
:25:00. > :25:06.what is going on in terms of figures, they indicate that
:25:07. > :25:12.inflation will be estimated at 2.4% and the growth of the GDP is equal.
:25:13. > :25:19.That will mean that real growth will be zero. If it is zero, there is no
:25:20. > :25:27.real Green shoots germinating in the economy. And this is the problem.
:25:28. > :25:32.This talk about growth and getting out of the recession, and all that,
:25:33. > :25:36.it started in the beginning of December, and I see it as a part of
:25:37. > :25:43.a Tory election strategy to create a feel-good factor in a certain way. I
:25:44. > :25:48.am sorry, we are running out of time. We attempted to tell some
:25:49. > :25:55.goodies. That is it for this week. We are back next week at the same
:25:56. > :26:17.time. Thank you for watching and goodbye.
:26:18. > :26:23.Hello and good morning. The wind is much lighter than it was yesterday.
:26:24. > :26:28.The rain keeps stumbling down and that will have the biggest impact
:26:29. > :26:31.this weekend. Not just rain today but the risk of some snow in the
:26:32. > :26:37.north for a while and then more wet and windy weather coming in from the
:26:38. > :26:38.Atlantic on Sunday. Today's rain has been heaviest in Dorset. Almost two