:00:00. > :00:00.Full bulletin of news at the top of the hour. Now it is time for
:00:00. > :00:30.Dateline London. Welcome. More good news for the
:00:31. > :00:37.British economy, but are you feeling better off? Turmoil in Ukraine and
:00:38. > :00:50.the latest attempt to bring peace to Syria. My guests today...
:00:51. > :00:57.The unemployment in Britain is getting close to 7%, much lower than
:00:58. > :01:02.the Eurozone, and with optimistic growth forecasts and the government
:01:03. > :01:11.suggesting it will benefit all of us, does it mean austerity is
:01:12. > :01:19.working? Do not rejoice, because the jobs in question are service jobs,
:01:20. > :01:22.not industrial, not very well paid, hence this feeling that people have
:01:23. > :01:29.in Britain that they are not happy with their lot because you had a big
:01:30. > :01:42.increase in the cost of living, and on the whole, the Anglo-Saxon model
:01:43. > :01:47.is unequal, and even the Davos forum, which is liberal, they topped
:01:48. > :01:54.about the division between the rich and the poor are, the bonuses have
:01:55. > :02:01.continued to improve. It is a lot better than 25% of your workforce,
:02:02. > :02:07.as in Spain, being unemployed. Yes, but unlike in the Anglo-Saxon
:02:08. > :02:10.countries, you have security, protection in all these countries.
:02:11. > :02:15.We have a welfare state, we have good hospitals, people are
:02:16. > :02:21.protected, and the economy is doing better on a more balanced model,
:02:22. > :02:27.service industry, between regions. In Britain, the South is doing
:02:28. > :02:31.well, the North is not. We had a big fight this week between Labour and
:02:32. > :02:43.the Conservatives, basically the Conservatives saying real pay was
:02:44. > :02:46.ahead of inflation. I think it is extremely fragile, and we get so
:02:47. > :02:52.excited because it has been so dark for so long. If you look at all the
:02:53. > :02:57.warnings from Mark carne, from high-level observers, they say not
:02:58. > :03:02.to get too excited too quickly. -- Mark Carney. I agree with Mark.
:03:03. > :03:12.Globally, there was an Oxfam report which pointed out that 85% of people
:03:13. > :03:20.-- 85 people own as much of the world's assets as 3 billion people.
:03:21. > :03:26.This is completely unsustainable. We have a reflection of that in
:03:27. > :03:30.Britain. We need people to spend to get the economy moving. Look the
:03:31. > :03:38.levels of personal debt. Average household debt is ?35,000. That adds
:03:39. > :03:43.up to a trillion. The office for Budget Responsibility predicts that
:03:44. > :03:48.will increase. This is extraordinary fragile. Any improvement we have
:03:49. > :03:55.seen is not sustainable because it is built on credit. The rich are so
:03:56. > :04:01.very much richer. We should not just look at whether the graphs are
:04:02. > :04:05.moving up. We should look at the long-term. There will be another
:04:06. > :04:13.shock and we have had no rebalancing of the kind that was promised at the
:04:14. > :04:17.beginning of it. Away from property and Finance, that has simply not
:04:18. > :04:24.happened. Stimulus is on the back of things that reinforced the trend.
:04:25. > :04:30.Debt is easier, property goes up. Easing restrictions on finance. What
:04:31. > :04:43.happens to that debt? I think this is very worrying, still. First of
:04:44. > :04:47.all, in response to Mark, who has always introduced the question of
:04:48. > :04:53.the Anglo-Saxon model, it is not right to suggest we have no welfare
:04:54. > :04:59.system, I think it is evident that this Anglo-Saxon country has an
:05:00. > :05:05.elaborate and costly welfare system. The other thing that struck me,
:05:06. > :05:10.listening to the political debate, what is not to like about a return
:05:11. > :05:16.to growth? Of course, there are long-term problems, but they are
:05:17. > :05:22.long-term problems that would be confronted by either party, and it
:05:23. > :05:30.seems to me we do have something to celebrate, yes, the jobs are not
:05:31. > :05:37.manufacturing jobs, but where outside the developing countries is
:05:38. > :05:44.there a record of creating manufacturing jobs at any pace at
:05:45. > :05:48.all? Germany, Italy, Scandinavia. The United States. Would it still be
:05:49. > :05:58.the case that service jobs account for a very large proportion of
:05:59. > :06:07.growth? It is regrettable, but a job is a job. I agree with you. It is
:06:08. > :06:18.extremely important in the economy, service. But referring to government
:06:19. > :06:24.austerity, I believe if it is working it will be on the account of
:06:25. > :06:28.the poor people. Those people who lost at least ?900 per year simply
:06:29. > :06:33.because of these measures, the people going to hospital, the health
:06:34. > :06:40.system is really struggling because of these measures. Education is the
:06:41. > :06:47.same thing. I believe it is not working, and I believe we are now
:06:48. > :06:58.witnessing the election campaign is starting earlier than many people
:06:59. > :07:03.expected. We had maybe 15 months, but it is now the major parties, the
:07:04. > :07:08.Conservatives and Labour, exhausted talking about immigration all the
:07:09. > :07:12.time, there is nothing left to say about immigration, now they are
:07:13. > :07:20.coming back to the economy. We have had the Shadow Chancellor committing
:07:21. > :07:25.Labour to run a steroid C programme. He also said the top rate of tax
:07:26. > :07:38.will go back to 50%. It is called equity. If you cut the expense, you
:07:39. > :07:46.need balance. The rich could afford this cut. You need taxation. Why did
:07:47. > :07:55.you have a more equal society in the 1970s? It is because of high taxes.
:07:56. > :08:02.Why is London the fifth or sixth biggest French city? They are very
:08:03. > :08:08.bright people. It is an exciting time, they come here and France at
:08:09. > :08:16.the moment as economic problems because the state has to be
:08:17. > :08:26.reassessed. -- as economic problems. -- has. And the president is
:08:27. > :08:35.busy... He is meeting the Pope, no doubt getting some kind of...
:08:36. > :08:42.Advice. What is going on? There is no first Lady in France, the problem
:08:43. > :08:48.is the taxpayer is financing the libido of the president. It is the
:08:49. > :08:57.French system. You cannot have that in America or Britain. How is this
:08:58. > :09:06.described in the budget? It is off the balance sheet of the nation.
:09:07. > :09:09.Miscellaneous expenses. I do not know what the French word for
:09:10. > :09:14.schadenfreude is, but there has been a good deal of that. One thing we
:09:15. > :09:26.expect of France and its politicians is style. This is clumsy,
:09:27. > :09:31.embarrassing. Compared to the events of the world, it is not really
:09:32. > :09:36.important. I have seen so much voyeuristic appeal from my British
:09:37. > :09:44.colleagues, how could it happen? It is irrelevant compare when compared
:09:45. > :10:00.-- when compared to the problems of the world. He should have two
:10:01. > :10:08.mistresses! In any bar in Paris, listen to the discussions, would we
:10:09. > :10:13.not find that just as much as this has been a primary topic of
:10:14. > :10:18.conversation, so it is in France as well? Not at all. In France, the
:10:19. > :10:23.topics are completely different, people are not interested in the
:10:24. > :10:28.private life of the president, and it is nasty that we have this
:10:29. > :10:35.Anglo-Saxon deviation about a president who is above libido.
:10:36. > :10:40.Obviously the magazine is selling to somebody, but let us move on. The
:10:41. > :10:49.political complex a day of Ukraine is the product of geography and
:10:50. > :10:55.history. -- complexity. How concerned should we be that a
:10:56. > :10:59.country with a possibility of becoming another Poland or Czech
:11:00. > :11:07.Republic could descend into chaos? The scenes have been ugly. They
:11:08. > :11:11.have. We should be concerned. It shows the weakness of the European
:11:12. > :11:17.Union foreign policy. There is not a coherent strategy and it is being
:11:18. > :11:25.run by the interest of the countries closest, Poland does not want it
:11:26. > :11:37.back. The knock-on effects could be serious. The European project is
:11:38. > :11:40.very fragile. You have a very divided country, right on the edge
:11:41. > :11:45.of Europe. Europe is a player in this game but does not have a
:11:46. > :11:49.strategy. One of the things we will come onto, what is happening in Arab
:11:50. > :11:54.countries, it shows that revolutions don't just happen overnight. We were
:11:55. > :12:03.fortunate that many countries changed in 1989 very quickly. You
:12:04. > :12:08.just have to look at the map of Ukraine to understand how difficult
:12:09. > :12:14.and insoluble this problem is, particularly with the eastern part
:12:15. > :12:22.being Russian, the Weston Park Ukrainian. -- western part. It is a
:12:23. > :12:30.deeply divided state. You can see the importance of the Black Sea, and
:12:31. > :12:37.why the Russians are intent on not allowing Ukraine to request but to
:12:38. > :12:39.look east and north. We need to look at the serious possibility that the
:12:40. > :12:47.only resolution might be a division of Ukraine, but it is hardly likely
:12:48. > :12:50.to happen peacefully. We are also at a time when Vladimir Putin is trying
:12:51. > :12:56.to be nice about other things because of the Olympics. It is
:12:57. > :13:00.tricky for him to handle this. I'm afraid the European Union could
:13:01. > :13:09.offer a deal to Ukraine which was attractive, which was accepted until
:13:10. > :13:14.Vladimir Putin vetoed it and bought them out of it by offering free
:13:15. > :13:18.energy. I think the European Union was saying to the Ukraine, we want
:13:19. > :13:23.you. You realise the appeal of the European Union on people of the
:13:24. > :13:32.East, who tried to avoid being linked with autocracy. The European
:13:33. > :13:37.Union is a beacon of hope and people are ready to die to defend the idea
:13:38. > :13:49.that Ukraine will be closer to the European Union because they belonged
:13:50. > :13:53.to the European idea. I believe we are witnessing another chapter of
:13:54. > :14:02.the Cold War. There is a war by proxy between the two sides. It is a
:14:03. > :14:10.divided country. But to divide the country, I do not know if it will
:14:11. > :14:16.work. I can see another style of Egypt or Syria as developing now in
:14:17. > :14:22.the Ukraine. Now we have people revolting or demonstrating against
:14:23. > :14:27.the central government. They would like to have reforms. There are
:14:28. > :14:32.foreign powers who are tied to exploit, to stir up the trouble
:14:33. > :14:36.there. I believe if I am an adviser I would say to them, please wait,
:14:37. > :14:44.please look at the situation in Egypt, look at the situation in the
:14:45. > :14:49.Yemen, in Iraq. Please learn from our experience. We let the foreign
:14:50. > :14:53.powers intervene, they destroyed our country and created instability in
:14:54. > :14:58.our part of the world. Be careful and look for your own interest and
:14:59. > :15:05.coexist, Russian Ukrainian together. This is the best way. I would make a
:15:06. > :15:09.case that not the West and United States have been meddlesome in the
:15:10. > :15:14.affairs of the Ukraine, but by taking a rather soft and indulgent
:15:15. > :15:20.approach to dealings with Vladimir Putin, that they may have in some
:15:21. > :15:25.ways encourage this trouble. I think if we had been tougher with Vladimir
:15:26. > :15:32.Putin earlier, we might have seen a rather different Russian approach to
:15:33. > :15:38.these problems. Vladimir Putin is European. He belongs to Europe, so
:15:39. > :15:43.why should we discriminate by this is good European or bad European?
:15:44. > :15:52.That is a question we must ask. Russian is a European country. That
:15:53. > :15:57.is highly debatable. With human rights. With a president who is not
:15:58. > :16:06.a cracked. Those are not European values. Let's move on. We have our
:16:07. > :16:10.final item, we are witnessing this humanitarian disaster every day on
:16:11. > :16:15.our television screens. People want to help those in Syria. Can peace
:16:16. > :16:21.talks work? How can surge should we be that reports have come in saying
:16:22. > :16:26.that people have joined the fighting? The question of the peace
:16:27. > :16:32.talks, the do not seem to be helping anyone. It is remarkable that they
:16:33. > :16:38.have started. Look at the history of peace talks in the Middle East.
:16:39. > :16:43.These kind of public peace talks advertised talks, they have never
:16:44. > :16:49.worked. They are usually secret talks. Look at the camp David
:16:50. > :16:54.talks. It was done in order to produce some sort of settlement or
:16:55. > :17:04.an agreement. It was actually advertised and announced an camp
:17:05. > :17:10.David. The same thing happens between Russia... Sorry, between
:17:11. > :17:15.Iran and the United States are around the nuclear ambition of Iran.
:17:16. > :17:24.We have Syrian toxin man for six months. -- talks in all man. These
:17:25. > :17:27.kind of talks are just a camouflage. I believe there is
:17:28. > :17:36.something happening behind the scene. If we want to have a proper
:17:37. > :17:45.peace in Syria, we should have Iran and Saudi Arabia. A proxy war? I
:17:46. > :17:50.believe so. It is a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. If the do not
:17:51. > :17:55.sit together and try to reach some kind of settlement, as illusion for
:17:56. > :17:59.this problem, it will continue for decades to come. -- a solution.
:18:00. > :18:06.Without that, I believe more people will be killed. Do you buy that
:18:07. > :18:11.basic analysis? I do believe that. What you see in Geneva is enormous
:18:12. > :18:19.effort by the most powerful people. What is that doing? It is not going
:18:20. > :18:23.to reach a settlement. It does answer the question that you started
:18:24. > :18:28.with. We all want to be seen to be doing something. You cannot
:18:29. > :18:33.intervene because Russia and China will not be in the Security Council.
:18:34. > :18:38.You are paralysed by the leaders of the last 20 years. But in the other
:18:39. > :18:42.hand there is this tragedy unfolding. People are saying to the
:18:43. > :18:54.politicians, what are we doing? There is one glimmer of hope in
:18:55. > :19:01.this, whatever you may say about Vladimir Putin, the Foreign Minister
:19:02. > :19:06.may appear to want to do something. It is the fundamental interests of
:19:07. > :19:10.the United States and Russia and Syria are opposed. One said the
:19:11. > :19:15.Americans who are saying there can be one solution that does not
:19:16. > :19:20.involve regime change on the part of our side. On the other had the
:19:21. > :19:25.Russians standing strong behind the Assad regime. I am struck looking at
:19:26. > :19:29.this. We can find plenty of blame for the Western world and what is
:19:30. > :19:35.happening in Syria, both over the colonial history in that part of the
:19:36. > :19:40.world, and in more recent events, particularly in Iraq. What we are
:19:41. > :19:45.really seeing here is an earthquake, a seismic event that has
:19:46. > :19:49.its roots in history. I think that we, in the outside world,
:19:50. > :20:00.particularly in the Western world, should concentrate our efforts,
:20:01. > :20:04.not, we should look for a settlement to mitigate the human misery, in
:20:05. > :20:11.that respect I am sure that more can be done, more than as the Cameron
:20:12. > :20:18.government has suggested, to take some of those 30,000 at most, at
:20:19. > :20:25.risk refugees in this war which is a drop in the bucket against what is
:20:26. > :20:32.it now, 2 million now. Some are saying half the population. One idea
:20:33. > :20:40.that would seem attractive but at the time it has gone now, what we
:20:41. > :20:47.had done in northern Iraq to greater say. That would involve committing
:20:48. > :20:51.troops, Western groups. That could draw as potentially once again into
:20:52. > :20:55.a conflict which peoples of the Western world are not prepared to
:20:56. > :21:01.support. Let's do more to alleviate the suffering. Absolutely. That is
:21:02. > :21:16.the only hope that could happen from Geneva. What is important is that
:21:17. > :21:22.Saudi are met -- Saudi Arabia to put money into this. All these countries
:21:23. > :21:27.who are doing so well economically, the US and Britain, should take
:21:28. > :21:35.refugees, not just Europe, which according to you is still in a mess.
:21:36. > :21:39.This question about foreign fighters. There are lots of stories
:21:40. > :21:42.about it, perhaps hundreds of British people. What is your
:21:43. > :21:53.assessment? There are conflicting figures. I heard from very
:21:54. > :21:58.responsible sources, a doctor who is working for a relief organisation in
:21:59. > :22:13.Syria, he told me that there are two 3000 Muslims wish fighters in Syria.
:22:14. > :22:24.-- Brits. The goal through countries like Yemen, Pakistan and after that
:22:25. > :22:30.from other theatres. They are there and they are fighting there. Going
:22:31. > :22:33.back to the Geneva Conference, there is little hope here for the
:22:34. > :22:41.refugees, because now they are talking about practical things. They
:22:42. > :22:46.want to have first cease-fire in Aleppo. Once you have a cease-fire
:22:47. > :22:51.in Aleppo and an exchange of prisoners, I think this could be a
:22:52. > :22:55.huge step on the direction of reducing the suffering of the Syrian
:22:56. > :23:01.people. They want to start with the easier problems and then go to the
:23:02. > :23:06.higher problem or most of the key to problems. It is a good start, but as
:23:07. > :23:12.I repeat again, without the Saudi Arabians sitting under the
:23:13. > :23:22.sponsorship of the Americans and Iranians, we will not have a
:23:23. > :23:24.solution. There are people who are drawn to extremist Islam from the
:23:25. > :23:29.United Kingdom and other Western countries who have gone to Syria. We
:23:30. > :23:33.also know also amongst those who have gone to Syria there are many of
:23:34. > :23:44.good faith and good intention who have gone, doctors, some wonderful
:23:45. > :23:48.stories of young people of Syrian origin who have returned to mitigate
:23:49. > :23:53.the suffering. We need to bear that in mind when people start talking
:23:54. > :23:58.about the risk of terrorist Islam riding on the shoulders of this and
:23:59. > :24:03.coming back into this country. This also comes back, it is the third
:24:04. > :24:08.anniversary of Egypt and the revolution in Egypt. We are seeing
:24:09. > :24:11.now the country that most people in the Arab world looked to for a
:24:12. > :24:18.leadership suffering from more kinds of terrorism in the street.
:24:19. > :24:24.Terrorism is spilling over into the heart of Cairo. Yesterday we had
:24:25. > :24:27.four bombings which took place. One targeted the headquarters of the
:24:28. > :24:32.security forces at the heart of Egypt. There are about nine people
:24:33. > :24:42.killed in this, ten people were shot dead by the police. If Egypt
:24:43. > :24:47.collapsed, it is a country of 95 million people, it is the heart of
:24:48. > :24:53.the Middle East. I think the whole Middle East would be an anarchy. It
:24:54. > :24:59.is very significant. It is like the contagion effect. If you look at the
:25:00. > :25:06.other Security Council country, China, you have leadership backing
:25:07. > :25:11.there and you have a block, half of China's oil is from the Middle
:25:12. > :25:16.East. The Chinese government -- economy has the engine of growth.
:25:17. > :25:21.You can see so many essential shocks proceeding from this. That is it
:25:22. > :25:25.from Dateline London this week. You can keep up-to-date on Twitter. We
:25:26. > :25:52.will be back next week at the same time. Goodbye.
:25:53. > :25:57.Once again we are yet again heading to one of those spells of whether
:25:58. > :26:04.were some areas in the British Isles do not need to see. It will turn wet
:26:05. > :26:06.and windy, not so much on Saturday. Some sunshine and showers. It will
:26:07. > :26:07.be Sunday that