:00:23. > :00:28.Hello and welcome to Dateline London. Can Scotland be truly
:00:29. > :00:33.independent if it keeps the pound? David Cameron meets the President of
:00:34. > :00:37.France. And a pause in the Syrian peace talks - but no pause in the
:00:38. > :00:40.killing. My guests today are Mina al Oraibi of Asharq al Awsat, Agnes
:00:41. > :00:48.Poirier of Marianne, Greg Katz of Associated Press and Polly Toynbee
:00:49. > :00:51.of The Guardian. The Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, is a
:00:52. > :00:54.Canadian whose own country could have split apart a few years ago
:00:55. > :00:56.when Quebec voted narrowly not to choose independence. Ahead of
:00:57. > :00:59.Scotland's vote on independence this September Mr Carney outlined the
:01:00. > :01:04.pros and cons of Scotland retaining as its currency the pound sterling.
:01:05. > :01:11.Does his intervention - however well received - scupper the case for
:01:12. > :01:19.independence? What do you think of that? I don't think it's the
:01:20. > :01:26.opposite. The organisation would have to take place. If people want
:01:27. > :01:29.independence, they will get independence, but it is an
:01:30. > :01:36.intervention designed to make them think again. Scotland has a slightly
:01:37. > :01:45.bigger financial sector in relation to its size than we do, so it is
:01:46. > :01:59.precarious. The Royal Bank of Scotland helped bring down, the
:02:00. > :02:07.whole British economy. On the other hand, Alex Salmond has said, if we
:02:08. > :02:13.keep within the envelope of borrowing that the Bank of England
:02:14. > :02:16.prescribes to share your currency, it is our business to tax and spend
:02:17. > :02:21.within that as long as we don't borrow too much. I think that is the
:02:22. > :02:27.sort of compromise that will be available. You could imagine from an
:02:28. > :02:35.English voter and an English politician point of view, they might
:02:36. > :02:48.say Scottish people should join the euro. It is one of the issues that
:02:49. > :02:54.gets people really involved in the debate. It is also part of the
:02:55. > :02:59.conversations that have to happen before the referendum, issues of
:03:00. > :03:02.practicalities. It is interesting, because Alex Salmond is saying, if
:03:03. > :03:10.you try to control us through currency, we will withdraw from the
:03:11. > :03:14.debt that we share with the rest of the UK. It is quite interesting to
:03:15. > :03:24.see the arguments being formed around the benefits, keeping
:03:25. > :03:31.Scotland within. Most people are unaware how economically significant
:03:32. > :03:34.Scotland is. I think it is quite important for Scotland if the
:03:35. > :03:40.referendum does not go to a yes vote, it almost elevates Scotland in
:03:41. > :03:51.terms of people's thinking, it shows how important it is. One of the
:03:52. > :03:58.things that happened in Canada is that although Q voted narrowly to
:03:59. > :04:03.stay within Canada, the rest of Canada were so fed up they were
:04:04. > :04:06.happy to see them go. Even though Mark Carney made his comments this
:04:07. > :04:15.week, there were also new figures showing people are more likely to
:04:16. > :04:23.vote yes, the latest figures are 30%. And the rest of Europe is
:04:24. > :04:30.looking at it very anxiously, because so many of them have success
:04:31. > :04:33.list groups. David Cameron is using exactly the same argument to get the
:04:34. > :04:43.Scottish people to stay in the union that we do for Britain to stay in
:04:44. > :04:49.the European union and somehow, he is deaf to our arguments that
:04:50. > :04:55.Britain should stay in the European Union. We will come back to the
:04:56. > :05:03.European Union in a moment. We know how this is seen in Madrid, because
:05:04. > :05:07.they have separatist problems. Would France care or well, or even notice
:05:08. > :05:13.of Scotland was independence? There has been a long history of
:05:14. > :05:22.friendships between Scotland and France? We are dealing with a grand
:05:23. > :05:27.hypothesis, but who believes Scotland will be independent Western
:05:28. > :05:36.Mark we have to do this as if they will vote yes. They said before they
:05:37. > :05:42.would want to join the European union, but if a new state wants to
:05:43. > :05:51.join, they have to choose the single currency. I would not entirely rule
:05:52. > :05:57.out Scotland sporting yes. Then forget about the pounds Eurozone.
:05:58. > :06:05.It is not that much of a disaster, is it? If Scotland try to go it on
:06:06. > :06:10.its own with its own currency, it would lose all its financial
:06:11. > :06:19.services, so I agree that the euro is a good option. I don't think this
:06:20. > :06:23.scupper is the argument at all. We understand the David Cameron
:06:24. > :06:33.strategy and the Alistair Darling point of view, Mark Carney has shown
:06:34. > :06:36.cards stop it seems to be getting closer, there are a lot of reasons
:06:37. > :06:43.to think this will be a very emotional vote and it will not
:06:44. > :06:48.simply be based on currencies. I would expect it to be close, that
:06:49. > :06:55.may be journalistic wishful thinking. By September, it may well
:06:56. > :06:59.be that David Cameron is looking like he's going to win the next
:07:00. > :07:04.election. In which case, I think the Scots will turn around. The idea of
:07:05. > :07:16.another Conservative government. They don't have Conservative MPs in
:07:17. > :07:22.Scotland. They have one. Is that why it is smart for David Cameron not to
:07:23. > :07:25.personalise this? He doesn't go up there at all. He had better stay
:07:26. > :07:28.away. Britain and France, 100 years after the outbreak of the First
:07:29. > :07:31.World War, actually have a lot in common - an imperial legacy, a
:07:32. > :07:34.robust foreign policy and a strong sense of national identity. But
:07:35. > :07:36.David Cameron and the French President Francois Hollande are
:07:37. > :07:39.poles apart on everything from economic management and austerity to
:07:40. > :07:53.the European Union. How far can they cooperate to change the EU? Or on
:07:54. > :08:04.anything else? Hollande said it was not a priority, which is diplomatic
:08:05. > :08:07.speak for get lost. Things are going very well, they met at a military
:08:08. > :08:14.base, because they were going to talk about defence. I know it is not
:08:15. > :08:18.a sexy subject, but it is going very well. We have less resources, so we
:08:19. > :08:27.have to put our resources in common. How many aircraft carriers
:08:28. > :08:36.do you need, can we share? Broadly similar objectives. Yes, because we
:08:37. > :08:44.have similar objectives. The French are carrying operations in the
:08:45. > :08:50.Central African Republic, we meet Britain in this. Strangely, I never
:08:51. > :08:57.thought it was the Lancaster house agreement, I thought the British
:08:58. > :09:00.Army and the French army are not going to incorporate very well, but
:09:01. > :09:09.apparently it goes fantastically well. That is one tick, can we move
:09:10. > :09:20.on to the rest? You have to have something empathy for Hollande, when
:09:21. > :09:24.he says, how can we dictate the pace? I think he has a point. We all
:09:25. > :09:30.want Britain to stay in Europe and we all want to reform Europe will
:09:31. > :09:35.stop the European Commission should be elected, for instance. They are
:09:36. > :09:46.going to have the next European elections in May, and nobody cares.
:09:47. > :09:53.Europe is a fantastic idea, one that is worth fighting for, dying for,
:09:54. > :10:01.even, but institutions need to be reformed. So why did he say it's not
:10:02. > :10:06.a priority? Because you can see Cameron is a hostage to the mad
:10:07. > :10:10.Eurosceptics in his party. He doesn't even believe it. He wants to
:10:11. > :10:18.stay in Europe, but he has some lunatic sinners party applying
:10:19. > :10:23.pressure. It is that, is he going to be elected again next year? Hollande
:10:24. > :10:30.cannot agree on terms when he doesn't know. When you know a man
:10:31. > :10:37.has problems back home, you take him down to the pub, so they did in that
:10:38. > :10:45.way try to do some bonding. He didn't have a pint! I thought the
:10:46. > :10:49.whole thing was a bit awkward, the British press was determined to
:10:50. > :10:55.question the French president about aspects of his life he wasn't going
:10:56. > :11:00.to talk about. The subtext of that was the British press was determined
:11:01. > :11:03.to get some sort of reply on his personal questions. But there is no
:11:04. > :11:12.way they are going to see eye to eye on any aspect of EU reform. Cameron
:11:13. > :11:18.is starting a general election campaign at this point. The economic
:11:19. > :11:31.data is giving him lots of reason for optimism and he is very much at
:11:32. > :11:38.this point trying to appease the UKIP side.
:11:39. > :11:43.If you look at the left of centre and right of centre votes, you have
:11:44. > :11:55.a majority, so if Cameron can neutralise the UKIP vote, he has won
:11:56. > :12:00.the majority he wants. The fact that Cameron is making it central to what
:12:01. > :12:05.it needs for him to win an election is trying to get those UKIP boaters
:12:06. > :12:10.on his side. The Lib Dems are absolutely against it, saying you
:12:11. > :12:15.cannot imagine another coalition government working well if it is
:12:16. > :12:19.between the Lib Dems and conservatives if the issue of Europe
:12:20. > :12:22.is going to be some central. I think Cameron is making a point that the
:12:23. > :12:30.referendum will be the choice of the British people. As Hollande is
:12:31. > :12:34.saying, we have 27 members, you can't decide relations in the EU do
:12:35. > :12:41.pending on what the British public thing. Exactly. This is a lunatic
:12:42. > :12:49.game that has no connection with the real world whatsoever. Anywhere in
:12:50. > :12:55.Europe now, if you held a referendum on the treaty, it would not pass,
:12:56. > :13:01.because everybody is any budget minded mood at the moment, so no
:13:02. > :13:04.government anywhere can afford to. The idea that Cameron on his own
:13:05. > :13:10.will be negotiate a treaty, that 27 countries will re-negotiate and get
:13:11. > :13:14.through all these referendums and then magically we will have an
:13:15. > :13:23.improved EU the end of it, everybody knows it is nonsense. It is purely a
:13:24. > :13:28.day without Eurosceptics press stop most of the press barons are not
:13:29. > :13:39.even British and even lives in this country. They drive the
:13:40. > :13:41.conversation. On that point, the Garage and ran a poll in September
:13:42. > :13:47.about the disaffection of British people with politics, particularly
:13:48. > :13:52.younger boaters. It showed that almost half the population, if you
:13:53. > :14:00.ask them, what you associate with politics, they say angry or abroad.
:14:01. > :14:03.Only 2% said inspired. Do you think people look at a lot of the stuff
:14:04. > :14:10.that goes on in politics and say, that doesn't actually affect me. It
:14:11. > :14:15.may be something we talk about in Westminster, but it doesn't affect
:14:16. > :14:18.me. I think there is a disconnection with the mechanisms of Westminster,
:14:19. > :14:24.but I think that's true in every country. This disaffection is
:14:25. > :14:28.widespread in Europe. There is a sense that they are up there don't
:14:29. > :14:36.understand what a hard time we have been having down here. The hard
:14:37. > :14:40.right in that country has deflected that decisive action against
:14:41. > :14:43.migrants, against the bullies people on benefits, to change the
:14:44. > :14:47.conversation about the fact that the rich are still doing very well and
:14:48. > :14:54.it is the middle and low earners that have really suffered. There is
:14:55. > :14:58.a conflicted turmoil of emotions. You can say people are not
:14:59. > :15:02.interested, but they just feel angry all the time that somehow
:15:03. > :15:11.Westminster is not representing them. They have no idea what the
:15:12. > :15:18.European Parliament does. That theme is true in the United States as
:15:19. > :15:21.well. I read something that said if you are born after 1972 as an
:15:22. > :15:24.American, you have spent your entire life living in a country where
:15:25. > :15:29.people do not trust the government to do the right thing, so this
:15:30. > :15:39.disaffection is a story of our times.
:15:40. > :15:45.Yes, you have a consistent American approach of manipulating the truth
:15:46. > :15:54.and not being forthcoming. The term credibility gap that was born, UCB
:15:55. > :15:57.periods in American history, M Carter, Reagan and President Obama,
:15:58. > :16:02.when people coalesce behind the leader and infuse them with magical
:16:03. > :16:09.powers, but that inevitably leads to disillusionment. You can see that
:16:10. > :16:14.with Obama at the moment. Is that true friends? Universal
:16:15. > :16:19.suffrage is something that is quite exciting but if you look at the
:16:20. > :16:27.participation turnout in France with the elections, for residents are
:16:28. > :16:33.cosy, it was 87%. For Francois Hollande, it was 82%. -- President
:16:34. > :16:38.Sarkozy. And it is 60 something in Britain. But your voting system,
:16:39. > :16:43.that is what the Lib Dems tried to reform, and they made a miss of it.
:16:44. > :16:51.But it is located. We vote for a man and a party. Perhaps we can make it
:16:52. > :16:57.more exciting. Also, I think we should directly elect the head of
:16:58. > :17:02.the European commission. Even having a European president, even if it is
:17:03. > :17:05.just an honorary function. It is hard to get people excited about
:17:06. > :17:09.European elections in this country. I think it will be some time before
:17:10. > :17:14.people go out and vote with excitement about the EU president.
:17:15. > :17:17.But there is an issue about British identity. This is part of the
:17:18. > :17:21.conversation about Scotland and the EU. It does not get framed in that
:17:22. > :17:24.context. It is much more about economics because people are
:17:25. > :17:27.suffering from the economic consequences of what has the
:17:28. > :17:32.happening. I think when people think of Europe or the EU, it is about the
:17:33. > :17:37.Eurozone and how Britain has been affected. But these are important
:17:38. > :17:41.elements of British identity. If the referendum goes to a yes, which
:17:42. > :17:45.people did not think was going to happen but now people think is a
:17:46. > :17:50.serious matter and could happen, and also the relationship with the EU. A
:17:51. > :17:53.final point on this, Polly, about party belittlement ship. People do
:17:54. > :18:00.not join political parties. Labour has a particular problem with the
:18:01. > :18:04.unions, which is Ed Miliband has been trying to solve, having beaten
:18:05. > :18:08.David Miliband as a result of this very system. Will that reconnect
:18:09. > :18:13.people in any way to the Labour Party? The hope is for the Labour
:18:14. > :18:19.Party to get more authentic members. Only 1% of people in this
:18:20. > :18:23.country belong to parties at all. Labour's membership is bigger than
:18:24. > :18:30.the Tories but they are both old and few. Labour has a peculiar
:18:31. > :18:34.relationship with the unions were the unions sign up millions of
:18:35. > :18:39.members nominally to be labour supporters without the members
:18:40. > :18:42.having a clue. And so Labour is saying that that is corrupt and
:18:43. > :18:45.people have to individually decide that they want to join. That means a
:18:46. > :18:51.huge amount of money will be lost for Labour. But they will get, the
:18:52. > :18:55.members they get from that will be authentic members, proper members.
:18:56. > :18:58.And that is much more democratic. Labour could not go on with such a
:18:59. > :19:03.corrupt system after the fiasco of the leadership. It was essential
:19:04. > :19:07.that they clean this up. Not many people will notice that at least
:19:08. > :19:11.they cannot dig at labour for being undemocratic any more. The Syrian
:19:12. > :19:17.peace talks are not exactly a beacon of hope for the suffering people of
:19:18. > :19:19.that region. They began in a week in which the president of the United
:19:20. > :19:22.States delivered a state of the union address which some
:19:23. > :19:25.commentators suggested amounted to a sign of American weakness on the
:19:26. > :19:29.world stage. If the United States becoming more isolationist with
:19:30. > :19:34.serious consequences for those like the people in Syria? Part of the
:19:35. > :19:38.problem, as an outsider, is when you look at it, you want something to be
:19:39. > :19:44.done but nobody really has a good plan. There is no plan for Syria. To
:19:45. > :19:49.answer the first question, the US is becoming more isolationist. Moving
:19:50. > :19:53.back to Syria, there is not a good plan but the plan on the table now,
:19:54. > :20:01.which is to get the government and the opposition sitting at one table,
:20:02. > :20:05.that has started, the train has left the station. The problem is to make
:20:06. > :20:07.sure it gets to the next station. The second round talks are slated to
:20:08. > :20:11.start in February. What is depressing is that both sides are
:20:12. > :20:16.saying it will take months. Some people are saying a year. And the
:20:17. > :20:20.problem is... The problem is that within that year, there is no call
:20:21. > :20:24.for a cease-fire. Everybody says they should be but it is not
:20:25. > :20:27.mandatory. Not only that, the confidence building measures that
:20:28. > :20:30.were supposed to create a positive atmosphere for the talks have
:20:31. > :20:36.failed. There were two met issues, lifting the siege of the city of
:20:37. > :20:40.Homs, and actually getting food to 500 families that have lived for
:20:41. > :20:44.over 18 months with absolutely no food, living in a dire position. The
:20:45. > :20:49.plan was agreed by the Americans and Russians with the UN to get food
:20:50. > :20:51.into the old city within the first few days of the talks. The
:20:52. > :20:55.government did not allow that and still the talks continued. The
:20:56. > :20:58.second issue was detainees. There are 2500 women and children that
:20:59. > :21:03.were supposed to be released but that did not happen. The fact that
:21:04. > :21:07.these measures failed on day one, the first round of talks have
:21:08. > :21:09.finished with the only measure of success being that they actually
:21:10. > :21:14.happened. It is difficult to understand why the Unitarian access
:21:15. > :21:19.issue continues to fail to get people rallied around. And you were
:21:20. > :21:23.there and he said that you think the United States has become more
:21:24. > :21:29.isolated, but John Kerry is working with them? They are working together
:21:30. > :21:32.because we have to have a process. It became talks about the talks,
:21:33. > :21:36.which is what the Middle East process has been about for so long.
:21:37. > :21:42.Summary people were drawing those parallels that it was disheartening.
:21:43. > :21:46.Yes, they are involved in making sure that this happens and the
:21:47. > :21:49.government from both sides have told them that they cannot walk away from
:21:50. > :21:54.the table. It is mainly the government and the opposition,
:21:55. > :21:59.trying to push the other sides to walk away for a political winner. I
:22:00. > :22:04.believe the government and large parts of the opposition believe that
:22:05. > :22:12.this can be resolved militarily. Until that happens, the stocks are a
:22:13. > :22:18.cover. -- these talks. Where is President Obama's leverage in this?
:22:19. > :22:26.Is him gauged on a political level? I do not think he is twisting arms
:22:27. > :22:29.behind the scenes. -- is he engaged. And do not think he has a clear
:22:30. > :22:32.vision of how the US would like to see this resolved. When the Russians
:22:33. > :22:41.and Americans were able to reach this chemical agreement to remove
:22:42. > :22:50.the weapons, it strengthened President Assad's position. It is
:22:51. > :22:52.still the stated position of the US that they would like to see an
:22:53. > :22:59.alternative government, the politics of this has been undermined and it
:23:00. > :23:05.has been even more undermined by the radicalisation of factions of the
:23:06. > :23:11.rebels. You have this integral of the conflict picture now if Obama
:23:12. > :23:16.was relaxing -- you have this conflict and picture now and if
:23:17. > :23:19.Obama was relaxing with his advisers, talking casually, they
:23:20. > :23:24.would admit that they have no way forward. I'd agree. If you remember,
:23:25. > :23:32.before the Russian intervention, we had these chemical weapons
:23:33. > :23:38.arrangements, and there was this week were France and David Cameron
:23:39. > :23:44.were going to go. It was a matter of 24 hours, troops would be going. And
:23:45. > :23:47.nowhere are we? -- and now where our weak you make the worst thing is
:23:48. > :23:55.that we have not managed to get humanitarian access. It is a
:23:56. > :23:58.militarily stalemate. Fine. But think how worse it would have been
:23:59. > :24:03.if the Brits and Americans have started bombing, as if that would
:24:04. > :24:06.have helped in any way. It certainly would not have led to talks and
:24:07. > :24:12.would be no question of disarmament. Who knows, as you say, whether this
:24:13. > :24:15.is going to go anywhere, but we would not even be here. The
:24:16. > :24:20.extraordinary thing is that a weak British opposition, was actually the
:24:21. > :24:25.party that prevented the West doing that. But is that also because, to
:24:26. > :24:30.return to what you said earlier, voters are in an angry mood. They
:24:31. > :24:35.are not in a mood to get involved in a foreign adventure with unforeseen
:24:36. > :24:41.consequences. And quite rightly. They look at the opposition. If it
:24:42. > :24:46.was clear-cut, in rebellion against Assad, but when they see the extent
:24:47. > :24:50.to which there are these different groups, a civil war going on within
:24:51. > :24:57.the anti-Assad lot, who are we supporting? And do we know that it
:24:58. > :25:00.will be better at the end? You can only intervene if you're clear that
:25:01. > :25:06.you will make things that. Is clear to most people in Britain that it
:25:07. > :25:09.would have made things worse. Is this container for? You are talking
:25:10. > :25:16.about making a better but it could get worse. It is very difficult to
:25:17. > :25:26.contain. -- is this containable. Iraq in the Lamont is moving between
:25:27. > :25:33.Syria and Iraq to a certain extent. -- Al-Qaeda in the Levant. It is
:25:34. > :25:39.clear that these gluttons control large points and the aerial bombing
:25:40. > :25:42.has two large part stopped. If you look at the conversation here, we're
:25:43. > :25:46.scared of the terrorists and radicals and maybe Assad is the
:25:47. > :25:49.devil you know. These conversations work to the benefit of the
:25:50. > :25:54.government and they have been able to frame the narrative. What Geneva
:25:55. > :25:59.did was allow the presenters of Assad's government to be talking on
:26:00. > :26:02.television constantly, giving a narrative after they had been frozen
:26:03. > :26:07.out. Politically, they have the upper hand. That is it for this
:26:08. > :26:10.week. We're back next week at the same time. You can comment on the
:26:11. > :26:39.programme on Twitter: Vicky for watching. -- thank you for watching.
:26:40. > :26:45.It looks as though we are storming into February, all systems go with
:26:46. > :26:53.the jet stream sending a stormy weather. -- sending us. So much rain
:26:54. > :26:55.in the last 24 hours, but the good news is that tomorrow will be
:26:56. > :26:57.better. The wind