:00:00. > :00:00.to the Pope. There is a full bulletin of the News
:00:00. > :00:00.of the top of the hour with me but now, Dateline London with Gavin
:00:00. > :00:31.Esler. Hello and welcome to Dateline
:00:32. > :00:35.London. The Ukraine crisis is the country eventually destined to fall
:00:36. > :00:43.apart? Plus Scotland's staying with us? Will it be the EU which saves
:00:44. > :00:51.the UK? Our guests are Henry Chu of the LA Times, Annette Dittert of ARD
:00:52. > :00:56.TV, Dmitri Shishkin of BBC global news and Iain Martin, a journalist
:00:57. > :01:01.and author. At the end of the Cold War, the Czechs and Slovaks went
:01:02. > :01:08.their separate ways and the former Yugoslavia fell apart violently.
:01:09. > :01:09.Ukraine is divided over its possible relationship with the European
:01:10. > :01:13.Union. Given the politics and diplomacy over the past few days,
:01:14. > :01:17.can the Ukraine crisis end peacefully?
:01:18. > :01:23.The Winter Olympics in Sochi ends this weekend. The Russians have an
:01:24. > :01:28.interest and perhaps Mr Putin will exert his influence more muse cue
:01:29. > :01:32.particularly next week? I think the most important thing is that the
:01:33. > :01:38.violence appears to have stopped for the time being -- muscularly. For
:01:39. > :01:42.Putin, I don't doubt he was keeping an eye on what has been happening
:01:43. > :01:48.there, although he was obviously more involved with Sochi. Russia
:01:49. > :01:52.will try to play its part in Ukraine's peaceful efforts, although
:01:53. > :01:57.I have a hunch that they also would like to have maybe some kind of back
:01:58. > :02:02.step and see how the situation will be developing with the EU efforts.
:02:03. > :02:08.We have diplomacy going on in the last 24 hours, obviously. Russia's
:02:09. > :02:12.position on Ukraine, and we can discuss it further, but the most
:02:13. > :02:20.important thing for Russia is that the Ukraine as a country keeps in
:02:21. > :02:30.one part or keeps as a single country and the important thing is
:02:31. > :02:35.that Kiev stops. Putin is scared of chaos so close to home.
:02:36. > :02:39.Putin owes his political career to the saving Russia from chaos, as he
:02:40. > :02:44.would see it from the Yeltsin era. He looks around and sees the chaos
:02:45. > :02:48.in Yugoslavia and Syria, it's hardly surprising that he feels, or from
:02:49. > :02:54.his position, he feels sensitive to what is happening? And this is
:02:55. > :02:59.exactly what the Russian audience has been hearing from the state
:03:00. > :03:05.channels and other mass media outlets. Russia has always main
:03:06. > :03:11.teenaged that when west tries to meddle into the sobering countries,
:03:12. > :03:16.the outcome is no, there is no proof that the outcome is likely to be
:03:17. > :03:21.positive for that particular country and they always cite Iraq, Syria,
:03:22. > :03:26.lots of Middle Eastern countries for that matter actually, and it also
:03:27. > :03:30.started obviously even earlier. In Russia's eyes, it started with
:03:31. > :03:33.Serbia and Kosovo, the Balkans. You were a foreign correspondent for a
:03:34. > :03:35.while, so you know this area, particularly the west of Ukraine
:03:36. > :03:40.very well. How do you see things right now? I have to agree that
:03:41. > :03:46.Putin will not lose his grip on the Ukraine at all. I'm very, very,
:03:47. > :03:49.unoptimistic about a positive outcome. On the other hand I would
:03:50. > :03:55.contradict you a bit. Chaos is something that Putin's also used for
:03:56. > :04:00.hirms always. He has -- for himself always. He has escalated this
:04:01. > :04:05.conflict to declare, like in Syria, a situation, a Civil War to then
:04:06. > :04:17.have it to secure its own influence in the area. That's something he'll
:04:18. > :04:22.very much use as well. He's used that cleverly in the past. You can
:04:23. > :04:25.see that tactically. The reports that Russia's pulled out its add
:04:26. > :04:28.viewer from Ukraine before the agreement was signed yesterday and
:04:29. > :04:33.so that gives them a way to detach themselves from the process, not be
:04:34. > :04:37.investing in it and perhaps use fit it goes wrong. Also the level of
:04:38. > :04:39.representation, what was interesting, whereas EU countries
:04:40. > :04:45.were sending Foreign Ministers and the like, Russia sends human rights
:04:46. > :04:49.ombudsman, so it's in Russian hierarchy, the human rights
:04:50. > :04:52.ombudsman is somewhere there. It had looked until the
:04:53. > :04:56.extraordinary scenes this morning in Kiev, ooze though Putin had
:04:57. > :05:01.outplayed the EU. It looked as though the European Union had been
:05:02. > :05:15.outgained, it looks timid, difficult to organise a response. In how it's
:05:16. > :05:20.produced a situation in which Putin's Al lie, we know he doesn't
:05:21. > :05:28.particularly like the Ukraine, but we know that he is now on the border
:05:29. > :05:31.-- Al lie. The capital is empty, the presidential palace has given over
:05:32. > :05:35.to the protesters. That was unimaginable just 24 hours ago.
:05:36. > :05:38.Rather than being able to hang on until December, of course. The
:05:39. > :05:42.opposition are saying elections by May? Which is a big change from what
:05:43. > :05:47.they seem to have said yesterday? Yes. The whole dynamics are
:05:48. > :05:51.interesting. It's amazing what is happening as we speak. I wouldn't
:05:52. > :05:55.agree that Putin outplayed the EU yesterday. The agreement was a big
:05:56. > :05:59.success in the European Union and it's the move of the Ukraine towards
:06:00. > :06:07.the European Union again. The next few days will now be crucial. We'll
:06:08. > :06:11.see whether Putin will exert his influence. When I say in the
:06:12. > :06:18.previous few months, in the period when the European Union was slow to
:06:19. > :06:30.respond, that's what I meant. Yes. America has been relatively on
:06:31. > :06:34.the sidelines of this. Partly, many of us will criticise Putin for
:06:35. > :06:39.looking at the word in a certain way, that it's the West v Russia,
:06:40. > :06:42.NATO and US versus Russia. Of course, on the American side, you
:06:43. > :06:47.don't want to fall into that trip equally just to present this as
:06:48. > :06:50.purely a Cold War conflict and we had Obama saying it's no longer a
:06:51. > :06:56.chess board where you move pieces according to the two actors, as it
:06:57. > :07:02.once was. There was some wanting to tone that down and to be behind
:07:03. > :07:07.these things. You have Biden calling Yanukovych even on Thursday so I
:07:08. > :07:09.don't want to pretend that the administration's absent.
:07:10. > :07:15.There is a danger there for America and the West in that the Obama
:07:16. > :07:18.approach, which is very academic, very careful, careful not to be
:07:19. > :07:23.drawn into making a bindery choice, as you said, in terms of freedom and
:07:24. > :07:26.morality. The danger is that when you are playing with someone like
:07:27. > :07:34.Putin who does see the world in those terms, it's very easy to be
:07:35. > :07:39.outplayed -- binary. If America had taken a stronger position a few
:07:40. > :07:44.months ago, the deaths might not have happened. I want to pursue a
:07:45. > :07:47.point that was raised to me by a businesswoman with business
:07:48. > :07:52.interests in Russia and Ukraine who said, talking about binary
:07:53. > :07:56.divisions, it's not east v west in Ukraine, it's young v old and there
:07:57. > :08:00.are many young Russians in Russia as well who don't like the system and
:08:01. > :08:05.are looking forward to some new relationship at that part of Europe?
:08:06. > :08:10.From social Points of View, Ukraine is probably one of the most
:08:11. > :08:14.countries like that. It used to be seen as a country that has the most
:08:15. > :08:17.potential. 23 years after its independence, we can see the
:08:18. > :08:23.continuation of this internal struggle. It's, as you say, could be
:08:24. > :08:26.east against west, young against old or potentially Crimea voicing
:08:27. > :08:32.concerns about whether it wants to stay in Ukraine, not maybe joining
:08:33. > :08:36.Russia or going on its own. I would argue that even, some people have
:08:37. > :08:41.the situation black-and-white, so you have got west speaking or
:08:42. > :08:47.Ukrainians speaking west, Russias speaking east. It's more complicated
:08:48. > :08:50.obviously. Russia speaks part of Ukraine who might not necessarily
:08:51. > :08:54.want to associate themselves with Russia given the criticism they
:08:55. > :08:59.might have on the Russian Government and the way the Russian society is
:09:00. > :09:03.being governed by Putin. I would say that the important thing is to
:09:04. > :09:11.appreciate this complexity and understand that the current thing is
:09:12. > :09:15.the continuation 2004. All this ten years since the Orange Revolution
:09:16. > :09:21.has passed, we have seen that the country, even if the country's going
:09:22. > :09:26.back to its pro-Parliament constitution of 2004 with limited
:09:27. > :09:30.powers of president and the rest of it, not all of the people are
:09:31. > :09:35.confident that the opposition A is united, B is capable to tackle
:09:36. > :09:40.things because a lot of people seem to forget that the economy is this
:09:41. > :09:43.huge looming thing which nobody currently rightfully so thinking
:09:44. > :09:51.about because of all of the tragic deaths. Sadly, someone will have to
:09:52. > :09:55.think about that and deal with that. If Tymoshenko comes out, some
:09:56. > :09:59.people, experts think the opposition will again be embroiled in this
:10:00. > :10:03.internal strife. To go back to the question I started
:10:04. > :10:07.with, do you think it can come to a peaceful conclusion and be, I don't
:10:08. > :10:11.know, like the Czechs and Slovaks going their separate ways or a
:10:12. > :10:17.unified country which somehow can cohere? I think it will be very
:10:18. > :10:20.difficult. I'm not optimistic. Without oversimplifying it, tough
:10:21. > :10:26.divide between the west and east. When I was a Parliament
:10:27. > :10:32.correspondent, I was surprised when I came back to the west. Nobody
:10:33. > :10:36.would want to speak Russian with me, everybody would rather speak Polish
:10:37. > :10:42.and German and this whole area has been part of the Austria, Hungarian
:10:43. > :10:46.empire for centuries. Stalin came in and shepherded the borders towards
:10:47. > :10:59.the west so there is a big divide teen west and east. It goes from
:11:00. > :11:05.generations, young to old. It's such a divided country and then you have
:11:06. > :11:11.the fringe behind, you have the European Union versus its own
:11:12. > :11:15.interests. I don't think that is a happy outcome. There's not one
:11:16. > :11:18.politician there who's not been compromised. I suppose as far as
:11:19. > :11:22.Russia is concerned, yesterday when they signed all the agreements, it
:11:23. > :11:28.seemed as if Yanukovych has the power at least until the December
:11:29. > :11:32.transition. Who knows what will happen until December. What is
:11:33. > :11:36.happening now, it appears that Kiev has left, the authorities have left.
:11:37. > :11:41.As far as Russia is concerned and I'm not advocating their position
:11:42. > :11:44.here, what is happening here is that a legitimate president of a
:11:45. > :11:48.sovereign country for some reason that is left the country having
:11:49. > :11:56.signed the compromised agreement with the opposition without
:11:57. > :12:18.explaining himself. For Putin, it's looming.
:12:19. > :12:22.There is suggestions that an independent Scotland will have to
:12:23. > :12:28.think about its currency and EU membership. David Bowie mentioned it
:12:29. > :12:33.at the Brits. He's a great musician. I'm a fan. He's a master of
:12:34. > :12:38.reinvention and he's done it again and most unlikely for him to come
:12:39. > :12:44.back reincarnated as a defender of the union. It will make a difference
:12:45. > :12:50.in that British culture, which has great he was, nationalist, he said
:12:51. > :12:56.it would be very pro-independence and actually what Bowie has done has
:12:57. > :13:01.reminded a portion of the Scottish electorate that, he lives in New
:13:02. > :13:04.York, he's a creature of British culture, he reminded us of what
:13:05. > :13:14.London is like, a cultural melting pot. Many Scots don't want London
:13:15. > :13:20.after this to become a foreign city. They want opportunities that the
:13:21. > :13:24.nationalists didn't see coming. The intervention illustrates that. Where
:13:25. > :13:27.I think the nationalists have had an incredibly difficult couple of weeks
:13:28. > :13:31.is that you have to remember that Alex Salmond's entire strategy, and
:13:32. > :13:36.he's been working on this for 25 years, was all about establishing an
:13:37. > :13:41.idea of reassurance so that you could vote in Scotland but you still
:13:42. > :13:49.keep the Queen as Head of State and use the pound and have a guarantee
:13:50. > :13:52.that it would still be in the European Union in. The last few
:13:53. > :13:59.weeks, there's been this extraordinary assault by the UK
:14:00. > :14:04.political establishment saying you can't keep the pound, there won't be
:14:05. > :14:16.a currency union, the British won't underwrite and subsidise Scottish
:14:17. > :14:20.registered banks. And the EU? I think where Alex Salmond may have
:14:21. > :14:24.overplayed his hand is where, he's right that it's almost impossible
:14:25. > :14:28.longer term to imagine Scotland being entirely excluded from the EU.
:14:29. > :14:32.But Salmond's position's been Scotland is a member of the EU which
:14:33. > :14:37.it isn't, the UK is. His position has been that the morning after the
:14:38. > :14:39.referendum, it's still in the EU. Now, rather than having that
:14:40. > :14:44.reassurance, the voters are told that there are going to be two,
:14:45. > :14:47.three, four, five very difficult years involving complicated
:14:48. > :14:51.negotiations with the EU and potentially with London. Also, the
:14:52. > :14:56.former editor of the Scotsman, so you are very much in tune with how
:14:57. > :15:00.public opinion's changed on this, the way that the euro is seen in
:15:01. > :15:07.Scotland is not the way it was seen a few years ago. To put it mildly.
:15:08. > :15:12.If Scotland has to apply to get at the EU, it will have to take the
:15:13. > :15:17.euro, that's it? Salmond is saying he simply won't do that so there's
:15:18. > :15:22.an impasse there. Salmond, until very recently, until Greece and
:15:23. > :15:26.until the eurozone imploetion, Salmond's view was that Scotland
:15:27. > :15:32.needed to get away from the shackle of the sterling zone and join the
:15:33. > :15:35.euro as quickly as possible. That became electorally impossible. Very,
:15:36. > :15:39.very difficult for him. So he rapidly on the hoof reinvented his
:15:40. > :15:47.entire approach and said, we will keep the pound. He didn't gain it
:15:48. > :15:50.properly and didn't calculate that the English particularly, the
:15:51. > :15:55.English political establishment wouldn't take this lying down. May
:15:56. > :15:59.have a review of it? Yes. How do you see it? You have reported on it, how
:16:00. > :16:07.do you think it's seen across the EU? Most people don't really
:16:08. > :16:10.understand it first of all and I think it's irrational and
:16:11. > :16:14.sentimental like the Tories wanting to leave the European Union, yet
:16:15. > :16:19.they sort of urge the Scottish people to stay within the UK. I
:16:20. > :16:22.don't think anybody really understands that in Europe and
:16:23. > :16:26.Brussels certainly and Barroso made that very clear. They have no
:16:27. > :16:32.interest in a further splitting up of this entity.
:16:33. > :16:39.Such an interesting paradox for me and far be it for me as an American
:16:40. > :16:45.to say you should break away from Britain... I think what's
:16:46. > :16:49.interesting to me in some ways is that actually the EU is paying the
:16:50. > :16:55.price of its own success. When you hear about places like Scotland,
:16:56. > :16:58.Caledonia and maybe even parts of the Netherlands, they want to break
:16:59. > :17:04.away from the nations to which they belong now. All of this under the
:17:05. > :17:10.umbrella of the EI because it has to them provided this safe place they
:17:11. > :17:13.can link themselves to, they can imagine their independent leaders
:17:14. > :17:23.rubbing shoulders with Angela Merkel. This idea that they could
:17:24. > :17:27.split off and be viable nations has been encourage and Barroso is
:17:28. > :17:28.saying, you can't break up because the architecture of the EU never
:17:29. > :17:38.thought about what would happen. But that was a deliberate move made
:17:39. > :17:42.by the Brussels establishment. And that has been apparent for 20 years,
:17:43. > :17:47.the idea that if you encouraged a loosening of national bonds and you
:17:48. > :17:51.encouraged to devolution, potentially independence, you then
:17:52. > :17:54.we can do nation state. And if you are then dealing with a nation state
:17:55. > :18:03.like the UK, properly sceptical outside the EU, it looked quite
:18:04. > :18:06.tempting ten or 15 years ago to try and give money to Scotland in terms
:18:07. > :18:10.of the regional growth funds and encourage the idea that Scotland
:18:11. > :18:17.should stand on its own. And you are right, now it comes back to bite the
:18:18. > :18:23.EU and it is very threatening. For an outsider, it seems naive as far
:18:24. > :18:28.as Alex Salmond's politics are concerned. The fact that he did not
:18:29. > :18:36.appreciate that the British stubble shouldn't, the Bank of England, the
:18:37. > :18:44.EU, the governing parties, all parties in Britain will unleash all
:18:45. > :18:48.of this political power on him, to ask how he's gone to deal with
:18:49. > :18:54.things, it seems naive for him as a politician not to have found the
:18:55. > :19:00.answer to foresee that. But he, as you well know, is a brilliant
:19:01. > :19:07.political tactician. He is an excellent player of political
:19:08. > :19:09.jujitsu. He has said that this is bullying from the establishment and
:19:10. > :19:16.David Cameron coming to Aberdeen with the Cabinet, will that help? In
:19:17. > :19:22.other words, it is a difficult thing for Cameron to do and perhaps the
:19:23. > :19:24.best he can hope for is a revival of Labour in Scotland, paradoxically,
:19:25. > :19:31.the one group who can argue effectively for the union. The
:19:32. > :19:38.difficulty is that this vote comes down to West Central Scotland and
:19:39. > :19:45.left of centre voters who, 20 or 30 years ago, it was Labour and
:19:46. > :19:50.Unionist. That vote is now potentially up for grabs. In those
:19:51. > :19:55.circumstances, Tories going to Scotland, particularly public-school
:19:56. > :19:59.educated Tories like George Osborne and David Cameron, is a high-risk
:20:00. > :20:04.strategy because the party has very few votes in Scotland and they have
:20:05. > :20:07.very little blood leveraged. What Alex Salmond is now banking on is
:20:08. > :20:14.that the British establishment intervention will produce Braveheart
:20:15. > :20:17.style a howl of rage and anger that people who might not be entirely
:20:18. > :20:20.convinced by the idea of independence just think, well, I'm
:20:21. > :20:24.not sure about it but I'd don't like being lectured by George Osborne and
:20:25. > :20:28.David Cameron. This is only the start, the first indication of how
:20:29. > :20:33.difficult it will continue to be until the referendum vote in
:20:34. > :20:37.September. So I'm thinking, if seven months before the vote, the British
:20:38. > :20:41.are already using Jose Manuel Barroso, and maybe he was right
:20:42. > :20:49.about Scotland, but irrespective of that, this will continue to be, and
:20:50. > :20:56.this is from outsiders perspective, the closest link I have with
:20:57. > :21:02.Scotland is a Russian poet. I thought the Russians liked Robert
:21:03. > :21:09.Burns? True. Like Burns night. It is true. It would be really interesting
:21:10. > :21:15.to see what people in Catalonia think about it and people in
:21:16. > :21:26.Corsica. And that is a threat as well. Ozzie Barroso -- Jose Manuel
:21:27. > :21:32.Barroso has said nothing to that. But let's take a very black and
:21:33. > :21:36.White example. Not Catalonia because of the separatist movement, what
:21:37. > :21:41.about when the country once do is integrate? Would they really go
:21:42. > :21:46.against the Belgian government, for example, and say, negotiate with us
:21:47. > :21:52.again for the next ten years? But who would remember, if you were just
:21:53. > :21:58.flounders? It is hard to explain how Scotland, as part of the EU, could
:21:59. > :22:01.not be independent. -- Flanders. But to touch on this difficult road,
:22:02. > :22:07.David Cameron is the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, possibly the
:22:08. > :22:12.last. But he is also the deputy first Minister of Scotland -- as the
:22:13. > :22:17.Deputy first Minister of Scotland said, the living embodiment of why
:22:18. > :22:20.you should vote yes. Whatever the rest of the country thinks, that
:22:21. > :22:28.plays to the kind of voters that he is talking about. You're right, they
:22:29. > :22:32.are going to have to rely on non-Tory, nonpublic school educated
:22:33. > :22:36.all additions to make the case. I think we have ready scene what they
:22:37. > :22:41.feel they need to do in terms of good cop, bad cop. You had David
:22:42. > :22:45.Cameron love bombing Scotland one week before and then George Osborne
:22:46. > :22:49.took the gloves off and played hardball. I think they are probably
:22:50. > :22:55.not off the mark in that there needs to be a hard sell. For those who
:22:56. > :23:05.might be wavering, soft cell might appeal. -- the soft cell. You might
:23:06. > :23:13.have a point about cultural leaders. To go back to David Bowie, just to
:23:14. > :23:17.say, it is not irrational, stay with us, has a degree of power. You might
:23:18. > :23:22.think, forget what they say, but there is a sense of affection. I
:23:23. > :23:26.think, as someone who does not want the United Kingdom to break up, I
:23:27. > :23:29.think it was worth 1000 interventions by a politician. It
:23:30. > :23:36.was an interesting and important moment. Alex Salmond, in comparison,
:23:37. > :23:41.risks looking mean minded and ridiculous. His response the other
:23:42. > :23:47.morning when he gave a speech was to say, you say we can choose the
:23:48. > :23:50.pound, yes, we can, trying to invoke Barack Obama. Unfortunately he was
:23:51. > :23:55.doing this in a Hotel function suite in Aberdeen in front of 200 people
:23:56. > :24:00.rather than 250,000 in a stadium. The effect was slightly ruined. And
:24:01. > :24:04.there are those who would say that yes, we can write great slogan that
:24:05. > :24:09.it has not worked out so well for Barack Obama. Also, what the
:24:10. > :24:14.political stubble shouldn't sing politely on the half of English,
:24:15. > :24:21.Welsh and Northern Ireland falters, they are saying that yes, you can,
:24:22. > :24:27.but you should be aware that there are serious consequences. You make
:24:28. > :24:30.an interesting point about non-political figures, and how they
:24:31. > :24:34.have been absent from this campaign. I would of thought that the yes side
:24:35. > :24:38.would have said, let's get Andy Murray talking about the importance
:24:39. > :24:43.of Scottish independence and JK Rowling might have written Harry
:24:44. > :24:46.Potter and the importance of the United Kingdom, to get these figures
:24:47. > :24:51.to exert influence. And yet that has not happened. Not because these
:24:52. > :24:55.figures are not interested or do not care but because many of them do not
:24:56. > :24:59.want to step into its just yet. We will have to leave it there. That is
:25:00. > :25:12.it for Dateline London. You can comment on the programme on Twitter
:25:13. > :25:13.using the hashtag, BBCdateline. We are back at the same time next
:25:14. > :25:39.week will stop -- next week. Today will be the better of the two
:25:40. > :25:40.days of the weekend with dry and bright weather to be found.