:00:26. > :00:32.Hello. Welcome to Dateline London. Is Russia provoking the unrest in
:00:33. > :00:43.Ukraine and can Britten and Germany be best friends in Europe. By guests
:00:44. > :00:49.are Dmitri Shishkin, Nazenin Ansari, Thomas Kielinger and Alex Deane.
:00:50. > :00:58.On Europe's border ares Ukraine remains in turmoil. After rather
:00:59. > :01:06.mysterious Russian troop movements owe Bam's warned rushy against
:01:07. > :01:11.invasion. Talk us how you think this is scene in Moscow? What Putin's
:01:12. > :01:18.thinking about this? I should start with a bigger picture. Putin always
:01:19. > :01:23.said, it is a well known quote, he sees the disintegration of Soviet
:01:24. > :01:29.Union as the biggest catastrophe of the 21st Century. Definitely he
:01:30. > :01:34.still sees Ukraine as a very much integral part of the Russian sphere
:01:35. > :01:41.of influence. Crimea has been Russian since mid`18th Century. He
:01:42. > :01:49.probably laments the fact it is passed over from Soviet Russia to
:01:50. > :02:02.Soviet Ukraine in 1954. His judgment was impaired they say? Yes, as of
:02:03. > :02:06.now Putin's remained silent. Even yesterday when Yanukovych did his
:02:07. > :02:12.speech he was a mess yesterday. In that sense. He still said, I would
:02:13. > :02:17.see Putin when Putin finds time effectively which is interesting in
:02:18. > :02:22.itself. They haven't met yet. Putin hassant' said anything. He thinks
:02:23. > :02:26.the Foreign Ministry is the rightful way of commenting on the situation
:02:27. > :02:30.and continues to be the case. Met yes hasn't said much. Prime
:02:31. > :02:37.Minister, we haven't heard him, Putin. Sorry to interrupt. Putin is
:02:38. > :02:44.not a particular fan of Yanukovych? No, not at all. I think Putin sees
:02:45. > :02:49.Yanukovych as a weak leader. He blames him for not being able to
:02:50. > :02:57.curtail the Orange Revolution of 2004. You can see the Orange
:02:58. > :03:03.Revolution 2. 0 in 2014, he cannot believe that Ukraine is again in
:03:04. > :03:06.that situation in turmoil. That's why he wants, given the
:03:07. > :03:12.sensitivities of the situation, given the fact there are so many
:03:13. > :03:18.Russian`leaning people in the Ukraine, Ukrainian leaning in
:03:19. > :03:23.Russia, he will remain silent until sometimes, potentially, well, the
:03:24. > :03:31.key thing here will be the election in May. But also the referendum in
:03:32. > :03:37.Crimea in March. How do you see it? If I were Mr Putin, I would be very
:03:38. > :03:42.disappointed at the moment. Because of his image. It has been shaltered.
:03:43. > :03:47.This is the worst thing that could have happened to Mr Putin since the
:03:48. > :03:53.fall of the Berlin Wall. When he sees what's happen happening now.
:03:54. > :03:58.There's a Georgian delegation, a Moldovan Prime Minister visiting
:03:59. > :04:04.Washington. His image of this man, this Superman is being tarnished.
:04:05. > :04:09.But, at the same time, I think Ukraine or Crimea is very different
:04:10. > :04:14.that Georgia. Ukraine is ten times the size of Georgia. Certainly, I
:04:15. > :04:21.agree with you, there will not be any invasion or anything. It would
:04:22. > :04:32.be more like the Soviet reaction to Poland in 1991. Basically, I think
:04:33. > :04:38.what he would do, perhaps, is sit down, take a backseat, take a deep
:04:39. > :04:43.breath and see what the other side has to do. How the West will
:04:44. > :04:48.reracket. It is worth pointing out some of those involved in running
:04:49. > :04:53.the Ukraine now in Kiev are not exactly angels and the more we find
:04:54. > :04:59.out about these far right groups, the less attractive they seem. Is
:05:00. > :05:02.that fair? Certainly, in international pop ticks the winner
:05:03. > :05:07.is not always the man on the top. Once you win, you have all these
:05:08. > :05:13.expectations that will emerge. Financial once? Bankruptcy?
:05:14. > :05:18.Certainly for Ukraine. They have a lot of problems. I don't think the
:05:19. > :05:25.people who will win the elections will be the ones that will... For
:05:26. > :05:30.obvious reasons Germany's sensitive to this? The Foreign Minister of the
:05:31. > :05:35.there a week ago signing agreement with the ex`Prime Minister,
:05:36. > :05:40.president, rather. Found that was useless as it were. Before the ink
:05:41. > :05:45.was dry on the paper, developments had moved on. This is the prop, it
:05:46. > :05:49.is a very fluid situation. Everyone's shooting at a moving
:05:50. > :05:53.target from moving platforms. Everyone is trying to assert their
:05:54. > :05:59.interest without being able to enforce it. Russia and America
:06:00. > :06:04.cannot do anything. America warns. The EU keeps warning. It is up to
:06:05. > :06:09.decisions. The referendum in March and the more important election in
:06:10. > :06:15.May. You do need legitimacy in the Ukraine. At the moment, there is a
:06:16. > :06:20.vacuum. No legitimacy anywhere. The old forces have broken up. The new
:06:21. > :06:24.forces have yet to assert themselves. We need elections, the
:06:25. > :06:29.people to speak. Until such a time, everyone has to be sweary. The
:06:30. > :06:35.situation is hugely flammable. Not sure about seeing so much Russian
:06:36. > :06:39.military personnel on the ground, whether they are not running ahead
:06:40. > :06:44.of what people will eventually decide. It is a moving platform.
:06:45. > :06:51.Very hard to pin it down to a fixed state. Meshing Elland other European
:06:52. > :06:56.leaders will be wary. William Hague is going to Kiev to meet leaders.
:06:57. > :06:59.Whatever Britain says and whatever we think, it is very difficult
:07:00. > :07:04.really to see how to push things forward. It is up to the Ukraine
:07:05. > :07:07.yaps themselves? There are two different discussions, the
:07:08. > :07:12.geopolitical and the second, the economic one we've hinted at. It is
:07:13. > :07:17.easier for us to support an economic sphere than the geopolitical. On the
:07:18. > :07:26.economics, they are facing a massive current account deficit. They sealed
:07:27. > :07:36.the deal with Russia to get a 15 billion loan. They need about 25
:07:37. > :07:40.little US. They will be junk if they fail to make those repayments. They
:07:41. > :07:44.will be desperate to try to run to keep pace with the status quo and
:07:45. > :07:53.Government spending. They will be looking for a deal. Whether that
:07:54. > :07:57.comes from the IMF or EU or they can anotheriate Somerset of parcelled
:07:58. > :08:00.negotiations. A bit from Russia, a bit from the West, a bit from
:08:01. > :08:05.private funds. Whatever they do, they have to get their hands on
:08:06. > :08:12.money. In order to do that, they need to damp down the geopolitical
:08:13. > :08:19.situation. On that geopolitical situation, we haven't really said it
:08:20. > :08:25.in blunt terms, the Crimea is an identifiable quite obvious separate
:08:26. > :08:31.piece of the country. It is almost an island, a peninsula connecting it
:08:32. > :08:41.to the rest of the country. Courtesy of some brutal politician ``
:08:42. > :08:45.policies, it has been occupied by people who identify more with Russia
:08:46. > :08:51.an the Ukraine. An easy solution may be for some deal for Crimea to
:08:52. > :09:00.become wholly or Parliamentary more Russian in formal terms. Allowing a
:09:01. > :09:06.more cohesive Ukraine to have a more western lifestyle. Whether that be
:09:07. > :09:13.formal members with the EU, who knows. They need more money and be a
:09:14. > :09:19.more cohesive political outlet. ? Ukrainian terms it would be very
:09:20. > :09:23.hard to explain to people, especially if the new Government is
:09:24. > :09:27.going to be pro`Western, which it is likely to be. I've been talking to
:09:28. > :09:30.people who are from the eastern part of the Ukraine. We should not be
:09:31. > :09:35.saying if they are from the east part of the Ukraine they are
:09:36. > :09:41.naturally Russian`leaning. They are against corruption and the freed
:09:42. > :09:48.former Prime Minister. She was implicated in lots of unsafery
:09:49. > :09:52.dealings. When she went to Medan people are not particularly
:09:53. > :09:57.supportive of her. As far as Russia's concerned, the Kremlin,
:09:58. > :10:02.they want Ukraine to continue being as weak as possible. In monetary
:10:03. > :10:06.terms. Just because it is easier to flex your muscles around it. The
:10:07. > :10:13.comparison to Georgia is very weak. We are say saying crime ease ya is
:10:14. > :10:18.2. 3 million people. But the point is you don't need to invade. Russia
:10:19. > :10:24.has already 25,000 troops already stationed there as part of the
:10:25. > :10:33.agreement. They had already 400 vessels and sea ships. It is an
:10:34. > :10:38.autonomous Republic? They had the palace there. Spent their summers
:10:39. > :10:45.there. Culturally it is a very Russian place. Tatars would disa
:10:46. > :10:49.agree, the nation deported from Crimea for alleged collaboration
:10:50. > :10:56.with the Nazis. Internally the situation is to be monitored very
:10:57. > :11:02.closely. We also have to take into account, consideration the Ukrainian
:11:03. > :11:10.Parliament has invoked the Budapest member random. A security guarantee
:11:11. > :11:15.Russia, Britain add the US have given to it. We hear whether this
:11:16. > :11:20.Budapest memorandum is legally binding or not. But they have
:11:21. > :11:27.invoked it. Mr Hague visiting Ukraine tomorrow, this would be the
:11:28. > :11:36.one of the topics high on the agenda. 230 Parliamentarians have
:11:37. > :11:39.voted for it. The wider concern, like the comparison with Georgia,
:11:40. > :11:44.the concern about setting a precedent for other bits of the
:11:45. > :11:49.former US SSR and Putin nibbling away with land grabs either creating
:11:50. > :11:54.a conflict or saying there's a place that's more Russian than not.
:11:55. > :11:59.Anything reason Putin stepped back a bit and let more national us
:12:00. > :12:04.particular sentiment come from the state Duma. It yesterday started
:12:05. > :12:14.legislation to help other regions which would like to become a part of
:12:15. > :12:21.Russia much faster which is a little bit political of them. When did we
:12:22. > :12:27.see last Russia actively defending Russian native population in former
:12:28. > :12:31.Soviet republics. We see Baltic states in the anyonities. Unpleasant
:12:32. > :12:36.situations happening in other parts of the Soviet Union. I can't
:12:37. > :12:41.remember when Russia was actively defending rights. It was only when
:12:42. > :12:46.the situation developed they could be using the same pretext. Several
:12:47. > :12:51.years ago when Kosovo became independent, Russia was defending
:12:52. > :12:57.Serbian territorial authorities. Let's move on. If you take the long
:12:58. > :13:02.historical view, the last century of hostility between Germany and
:13:03. > :13:10.Britain is an on ration. A British monarchy is descended from the house
:13:11. > :13:17.of Hanover. Everything from our music supports close ties. Could a
:13:18. > :13:23.rekindled British/German friendship change Europe? You are not thinking
:13:24. > :13:27.about power politics of the 19th Century? I am and earlier. What's
:13:28. > :13:31.going on in this relationship between meshing Elland Cameron? What
:13:32. > :13:38.does meshing he will want? She wants to have her cake and eat it. Be true
:13:39. > :13:44.to her European vocation and responsibilities as the the power of
:13:45. > :13:54.the most powerful nation in the world. She's not ohm nip tent. Her
:13:55. > :13:58.most revealing line in her deliver was to be between a rock and a hard
:13:59. > :14:01.place. She's not trying to represent that section of public opinion in
:14:02. > :14:06.Germany which says to Britain, to hell with you. Do what you like, we
:14:07. > :14:12.don't care. She would rather like to come to the aid of wellington though
:14:13. > :14:17.that's easier said than done. We shouldant' forget the battle of
:14:18. > :14:22.Waterloo was won by the British and Prussians. There we are, we're back
:14:23. > :14:27.in the 19th Century. We are but this is not the same situation. She can't
:14:28. > :14:33.deliver on the promise to help him until she knows more about what he
:14:34. > :14:39.wants to put on the table in terms of repatriation to Britain. She can
:14:40. > :14:42.offer sympathies but she's good to emphasise Cameron has a friend in
:14:43. > :14:50.high places. Meshing he will is on his side but apart from that, as far
:14:51. > :14:52.as delivery in practical terms, we have very little. It is important to
:14:53. > :15:00.have this friendship. It can be overdone. The Queen has been thrown
:15:01. > :15:05.in for good measure. Meshing he will is in herself a Queen. Stands above
:15:06. > :15:13.politics. Prevaricates herself. She came, she saw, she equiff Kated se.
:15:14. > :15:20.It's worked successfully over the years. She's been known to not get
:15:21. > :15:24.too much involved. We have an election in Britain next year. We
:15:25. > :15:29.don't know whether Mr Cameron will be returned. Will she impose herself
:15:30. > :15:34.or introduce herself into the Civil War in Britain about Europe? At the
:15:35. > :15:46.core of it is what does Cameron want? What is going to try to
:15:47. > :15:51.deliver on Europe? That seems vague. The current aspiration is to build a
:15:52. > :15:56.coalition of the willing, on the front cover of the Spectator, team
:15:57. > :16:08.biking, Cameron and Merkel done up rather unconvincingly. He is no
:16:09. > :16:13.Wotan! Quite, that idea that there might be a low tax or free market
:16:14. > :16:16.grouped within the EU that might seek to reform it such that Cameron
:16:17. > :16:21.can keep people happy, and you are right, there is much in common
:16:22. > :16:25.between us and Germany in traditional and historic terms. But
:16:26. > :16:39.that sense of alliance Flanders on a fundamental conception on what the
:16:40. > :16:43.EU was four. `` flounders. My firm belief is that the Germans, broadly
:16:44. > :16:47.speaking, think of it as a union and the British people, at least the
:16:48. > :16:58.Conservatives among us, think of it as a route to free`market. Germany
:16:59. > :17:04.has become so Europeanised, she has almost given up on the idea, in fact
:17:05. > :17:09.a country almost does, but she likes to couch it in European terms, and
:17:10. > :17:13.that is the true belief of Germans, that they are more European than
:17:14. > :17:18.German. She said that in his speech, it made the European
:17:19. > :17:24.correspondence drop their dense. But for the German press, that is
:17:25. > :17:33.normal. It was Catherine the great who gave Crimea, the grand dame, but
:17:34. > :17:38.now it is the great Angela of Europe. Mr Cameron needs her more
:17:39. > :17:43.than at any time in his political career. In fact, I think the visit
:17:44. > :17:49.here by the German Chancellor was even more important than the visits
:17:50. > :17:58.by any US president. So certainly, I think that Britain, let's talk about
:17:59. > :18:04.Maastricht. At that time there were 12 members, now there are 28. So the
:18:05. > :18:11.way for Britain to exit the EU or not, it is much more difficult.
:18:12. > :18:17.Angela the Great has to decide it. America is out of the loop, this is
:18:18. > :18:23.a European issue, where there is no need to ask... But from your time in
:18:24. > :18:27.the United States, both parties, if they ever think about Britain and
:18:28. > :18:32.its future, they both want Britain to play an active role in the
:18:33. > :18:37.European Union. They give their blessing to that. If Scotland
:18:38. > :18:41.becomes independent, we will all find an accommodation, and in the
:18:42. > :18:45.same way, were we to leave the European Union, in whatever form,
:18:46. > :18:48.they would come an accommodation and the Americans would react to it.
:18:49. > :18:54.They may not encourage it, because most states, they like stability and
:18:55. > :18:58.they like their allies to be predictable, weather that is
:18:59. > :19:02.internally desirable or not. It is very telling that when people are
:19:03. > :19:06.talking about such complexes used in public, internally they have
:19:07. > :19:09.different views on a particular subject. Angela Merkel wants
:19:10. > :19:14.something from Cameron which he does not want to be involved with, and
:19:15. > :19:19.vice versa. They can help each other still, even though their aims are
:19:20. > :19:22.different. What I think is that it's just continues to show the
:19:23. > :19:27.dysfunctionality of the European Union in its current form, 28 member
:19:28. > :19:32.states, starting from the very economic facing union, going towards
:19:33. > :19:35.wider political union. If you wanted to change something, Cameron keeps
:19:36. > :19:40.saying, we want to change the fundamental principles, and that
:19:41. > :19:49.would require a referendum in some member states. Everyone understands
:19:50. > :19:54.Cameron's frustration with the lack of growth in Europe, and we promised
:19:55. > :20:01.each other 40 years ago that, within a decade, Europe would be the most
:20:02. > :20:07.growth orientated area in the world. But we are mired in bureaucracy,
:20:08. > :20:14.overregulation, and Cameron wants to rattle the doors of this almost
:20:15. > :20:20.decrepit system. Angela Merkel is of the same mind. In terms of the
:20:21. > :20:25.bureaucracy, the lack of growth, but in terms of structure. Only to an
:20:26. > :20:30.extent is she's sympathetic. Talking about a rock and a hard place, for
:20:31. > :20:37.Cameron, pushed too hard for form, lose Merkel. Do not push hard
:20:38. > :20:41.enough, lose your own party. One specific issue was immigration,
:20:42. > :20:44.where there is some fellow feeling with Germany because richer
:20:45. > :20:48.countries from the north of Europe tend to attract workers from Kura
:20:49. > :20:54.countries, accession countries. How difficult is that for Cameron now?
:20:55. > :20:57.It is more difficult because there is a party to the right of him with
:20:58. > :21:02.a populist message that will beat him in the European elections, and
:21:03. > :21:07.the rise of UKIP, of course, they draw votes from across the political
:21:08. > :21:12.spectrum, as they always want to emphasise, but there main effect is
:21:13. > :21:16.to deny the consider the party resource on the right. That is
:21:17. > :21:23.derailing Cameron's messages, which is more free market and free
:21:24. > :21:27.movement, actually. Any hint away from free movement, however
:21:28. > :21:34.sympathetic Germans as a whole might be, the elite is against it. It is a
:21:35. > :21:39.core principle of the EU. Cameron's message will be drawn away by that,
:21:40. > :21:43.but there is now a ballot of the well`developed political movement in
:21:44. > :21:47.this country saying populist things about immigration to the right of
:21:48. > :21:52.him, which will deny him a majority, at least, at the next election.
:21:53. > :21:57.There is a delusion underlying this issue, people talk about wanting to
:21:58. > :22:02.stop economic migration, but the problem is that Britain is a hugely
:22:03. > :22:06.popular and attractive country, the way of life, the English language,
:22:07. > :22:12.the labour market is so attractive that you will be drowned for
:22:13. > :22:22.evermore in immigration from Europe and Laura Nations. They do not
:22:23. > :22:27.necessarily come for benefits. `` poorer nations. Germany or any other
:22:28. > :22:30.country, from the point of view of language, is not nearly as
:22:31. > :22:38.attractive. Should we celebrate this or say it is a problem? You are a
:22:39. > :22:44.victim of your popularity. Even yesterday, my friend, a designer, he
:22:45. > :22:47.does posh flats for Russians in London, he was showing as one of his
:22:48. > :22:55.works in progress, and who was building the flats? Polish workers,
:22:56. > :23:01.the best builders, she said to me, discounting Ukrainians, who are not
:23:02. > :23:06.yet here! No, but I mean, right of movement, travel, is part of the
:23:07. > :23:09.Helsinki accords, human rights, but we have come to a juncture in
:23:10. > :23:13.history where you have to really take a realistic perspective. Of
:23:14. > :23:20.course, Britain is a popular place to come thanks to the language, the
:23:21. > :23:25.beautiful... The weather that we have! But at the same time it is a
:23:26. > :23:31.question of finances, and Germany itself is also feeling the pinch,
:23:32. > :23:35.and the more you open up Europe, the more you enlarge membership, that is
:23:36. > :23:41.something that not only Germany and France, but the French will also
:23:42. > :23:44.start. There is only a finite number of countries still to be given
:23:45. > :23:56.access to Europe, we are only talking about the Balkans? Ukraine!
:23:57. > :24:02.Turkey! Iran! You cannot keep talking about the original four
:24:03. > :24:05.freedoms, because at the time, 30 years ago, history has changed
:24:06. > :24:12.enormously. You have to keep going back to the issue to define them. Do
:24:13. > :24:17.we go deeper or wider? That is not resolved. There has to be a
:24:18. > :24:22.resolution of these principles, ideals, with what is happening on
:24:23. > :24:26.the ground. Do you see any kind of coalition of the willing, to go back
:24:27. > :24:31.to the phrase she used, of countries which recognise that there really is
:24:32. > :24:37.a problem in the EU and intent to do something about it? Like Britain and
:24:38. > :24:44.Germany, the contributors. Icy the possibility of them coming together
:24:45. > :24:52.on these issues and others. `` I see. She indicated her pent`up
:24:53. > :24:56.desire to be closer to Cameron, and with the other nations she has to
:24:57. > :25:01.clear this with the rest of Europe. She cannot appeared to be speaking
:25:02. > :25:06.unilaterally, as it were. She is only one amongst 28 nations, albeit
:25:07. > :25:11.the most powerful one. There is room for movement. You are right, we have
:25:12. > :25:19.a migration debate wrapped up in a benefits debate. There is more to it
:25:20. > :25:26.than that. On the specific point about coming here to claim benefits,
:25:27. > :25:30.which Britain is having a debate in the European Court, there was
:25:31. > :25:35.support from Germany and also from the Scandinavians, who experienced
:25:36. > :25:40.that kind of movement. In broader terms, it is doomed to fail, a
:25:41. > :25:43.coalition like that, because in the end the project will prevail.
:25:44. > :25:50.Because of the prospect of referendums. You can make coalitions
:25:51. > :25:55.for individual topics. That is it for Dateline, we are back next week
:25:56. > :25:56.at the same time. You can comment on the programme on Twitter. Thanks for
:25:57. > :26:29.watching and goodbye. Hello, the 1st of March. A chilly
:26:30. > :26:30.start to the month, frost, fog and ice to contend with, the best of