:00:34. > :01:00.Welcome to dateline London. Crimea's campaign to leave Russia
:01:01. > :01:09.and join the league training is neither legal nor wanted. Is
:01:10. > :01:12.Vladimir Putin determined to carve up Ukraine? Isn't anything which
:01:13. > :01:21.might make him think again? I suspect the answer is I yes, he is
:01:22. > :01:27.determined. Yes, he is determined. He decided several weeks ago, and we
:01:28. > :01:35.were discussing it, whether they would be in military intervention.
:01:36. > :01:50.What will happen now, I think, is the referendum will go ahead, and
:01:51. > :01:57.Vladimir Putin was take a step back and see what is going on. Foreign
:01:58. > :02:01.powers will be see it is illegitimate and they don't
:02:02. > :02:07.recognise it, but the practical things will come later. What will
:02:08. > :02:13.happen later, all the supply routes go through Ukraine, still Russia
:02:14. > :02:18.will eventually have to fund Crimea. It will become yet another region
:02:19. > :02:29.that the Kremlin will have to delete a lot of money to. Another option
:02:30. > :02:36.would be to freeze the situation like with other Soviet territories.
:02:37. > :02:43.What is the great game yet? We have discussed endlessly about Putin
:02:44. > :02:52.wanting his empire back, the soviet union empire collapsing was a
:02:53. > :03:00.disaster, but is he an incremental list, or is he somebody who, the
:03:01. > :03:03.more he eats, the hungrier he gets? Two important points. The first is
:03:04. > :03:08.to do with internal situations in Russia. I think Putin specifically
:03:09. > :03:11.sees everything which has been happening in Ukraine over the last
:03:12. > :03:22.ten or so years as eight direct potential threat to the power in
:03:23. > :03:26.Russia. If subsequently we can see that they can install another
:03:27. > :03:31.government that foreign powers will recognise, if people in Russia start
:03:32. > :03:35.thinking that protest, ten years of protest, can suddenly leapt to
:03:36. > :03:41.change power, that is something the Kremlin should be extremely nervous.
:03:42. > :03:44.Secondly is the international angle that internationally Russia always
:03:45. > :03:51.maintained there needs to be some kind of of the zone between NATO,
:03:52. > :03:55.which is still, there have been dozens of agreements between the
:03:56. > :04:00.Russian military and NATO, it is still being seen widely as a
:04:01. > :04:04.threat. Russia always wanted to have a buffer state, even the former
:04:05. > :04:10.Eastern Bloc countries have become members. Russia Ukraine and Moldova
:04:11. > :04:16.or almost like the last bastions of that. If suddenly Ukraine becomes a
:04:17. > :04:22.part of it it is unacceptable... Part of NATO? It is completely
:04:23. > :04:29.unacceptable. A lot of people were saying about Gorbachev that one
:04:30. > :04:38.thing that he got completely wrong is that you never go to the Western
:04:39. > :04:42.powers to say that nature does not expand at all. A dilemma for the
:04:43. > :04:47.West is, broadly, what can you do, and, if you want Ukraine to survive
:04:48. > :04:50.as an independent state, you may have to find a lot more money than
:04:51. > :04:54.you have found already because particularly eastern Ukraine is
:04:55. > :04:57.fairly impoverished and as we have seen a couple of people have been
:04:58. > :05:04.killed in a place where there could be further unrest. I think the
:05:05. > :05:09.larger picture here is about nonproliferation. If you go back to
:05:10. > :05:11.1994 the US and Russia signed an agreement currently in territorial
:05:12. > :05:18.integrity of Ukraine if Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear
:05:19. > :05:24.weapons arsenal. An important landmark in the post-Cold War Iraq.
:05:25. > :05:26.If the US is seen to not be able to keep that agreement in force, it has
:05:27. > :05:33.huge implications for nonproliferation Lord eastern
:05:34. > :05:38.Europe. Iran, for instance, talks with Iran could be impacted. There
:05:39. > :05:41.is a lot at stake for the credibility of the US. I think you
:05:42. > :05:47.are singing a Guy Burgess between the way the US is react and in
:05:48. > :05:52.Europe. Europe has more skin in the game, if you want to call it that,
:05:53. > :05:56.far more economically dependent on Russia. Germany in particular, a
:05:57. > :06:05.third of its oil and gas supplies come from Russia. So I'd wink that
:06:06. > :06:10.the EU, to impose sanctions, Iran style sanctions on Russia could have
:06:11. > :06:16.a huge impact on the economy if you are talking about an inability of
:06:17. > :06:19.Russian companies to convert rubles into dollars it will have a huge
:06:20. > :06:26.implications for the city of London, for the banking sector. The number
:06:27. > :06:34.of German companies that are intertwined with Russian companies,
:06:35. > :06:42.RW we and John have agreements with Gazprom. If you look at what Angela
:06:43. > :06:48.Merkel said this week, it seemed to be a line of, OK, but if you go into
:06:49. > :06:51.eastern Ukraine then we are going to slam you with punitive economic
:06:52. > :06:56.sanctions and that is where we draw the line. You can understand the
:06:57. > :06:59.politics of that but you can understand, if you see it from
:07:00. > :07:03.Putin's point of view, if I push another little bit and another
:07:04. > :07:08.little bit, these lines being drawn that mean anything, it is the red
:07:09. > :07:16.lines over Syria all over again. I think Putin is being extremely
:07:17. > :07:25.pragmatic and cynical about this. I will be pushing and pushing, because
:07:26. > :07:31.he has not started using his cards, such as Syria and the North Korean
:07:32. > :07:34.situation as well, all those things have not been mentioned before as
:07:35. > :07:37.part of the wider solution, so I think the West will be potentially
:07:38. > :07:44.working hard to find a situation which saves space for everyone. If
:07:45. > :07:47.you look at what Kerry said after the meeting with Sergey Lavrov on
:07:48. > :07:51.Friday, he seems to be leaving the door open for Putin to have a
:07:52. > :07:56.graceful way out, saying, we will not hit you with sanctions if you'd
:07:57. > :08:03.continue the diplomatic analogue and I am sure he is mindful that Putin
:08:04. > :08:07.does not react well to threats. The West's reaction so far is limited.
:08:08. > :08:15.They have not shown as anything serious or credible. The Kerry to
:08:16. > :08:23.say there will be serious consequences, that is not strong
:08:24. > :08:27.enough. Putin, I think, what he had in mind, he is building the image of
:08:28. > :08:33.view to the great. He is everywhere, more or less. You mentioned Syria,
:08:34. > :08:39.it is part of his global policy. Certainly Crimea now. Obviously Iran
:08:40. > :08:43.as well, but Syria in particular. The man is doing whatever he likes
:08:44. > :08:51.in Syria and nobody seems to be able to stop him. That entire region in
:08:52. > :08:57.the Middle East is really under serious threat if the regime
:08:58. > :09:06.continues to prosper. And it seems it will be. Because now even Kerry,
:09:07. > :09:12.indirectly talking about that, it is ridiculous and very disappointing.
:09:13. > :09:19.And it is seen that way across the Arab world? Absolutely. It is
:09:20. > :09:22.interesting that we are talking about this in global terms but I am
:09:23. > :09:27.also interested in the views of people within Ukraine and Crimea, it
:09:28. > :09:31.is such a complicated place in terms of the ethnicities, the religions,
:09:32. > :09:35.the way in which people perceive themselves to be either Europeans or
:09:36. > :09:38.looking towards Russia will stop a lot of the interviews we see coming
:09:39. > :09:44.out of there from people, the ordinary people who live there, too
:09:45. > :09:47.as it may seem strange but they see themselves very much as allied to
:09:48. > :09:56.Russia. They want that connection with Russia in a way that we perhaps
:09:57. > :10:01.don't quite... I don't necessarily think they become anti-European, I
:10:02. > :10:06.think that is an important point. They have various layers to them.
:10:07. > :10:14.Chromium is, specifically, even if you take 60% of ethnic Russians in
:10:15. > :10:18.Crimea, can we say that all of them really want to become a part of
:10:19. > :10:23.Russia or do they still want to be part of Ukraine maybe with a more
:10:24. > :10:25.stable government, less corrupt? What is the actual relationship
:10:26. > :10:39.between Ukraine and the region in the far west of Ukraine as well?
:10:40. > :10:43.Historically very different. The Tatars will play a very important
:10:44. > :10:52.part in the next few months. That is why Tatars has been doing very, very
:10:53. > :10:58.interesting in the international relationship, speaking to the
:10:59. > :11:07.presidents of one of the powerful republics within Russia as well.
:11:08. > :11:11.Just understand where they are, the global support for the whole thing.
:11:12. > :11:18.The same goes to the eastern part of Ukraine. It is not as black and
:11:19. > :11:23.white, and a lot of times if you live in Donetsk or somewhere else
:11:24. > :11:27.not mean that you suddenly want to wake up in the Russian Federation
:11:28. > :11:33.the next morning, if indeed eastern Ukraine will become the next step.
:11:34. > :11:39.But the question to me is why did they move the referendum to this
:11:40. > :11:43.weekend? It was supposed to be in May and then it suddenly cropped up
:11:44. > :11:52.that they moved to head. I have a lot of people thought, yes, a
:11:53. > :11:55.referendum, given sufficient time to prepare for it, to debated publicly,
:11:56. > :12:00.would be the way to go. Why did he push it forward? Because he had the
:12:01. > :12:07.momentum. If you remember the fateful weekend with several foreign
:12:08. > :12:11.EU ministers and members of opposition and Russian human rights
:12:12. > :12:17.organisations were signed, the situation were moving so quickly...
:12:18. > :12:20.I think they don't want a stand-off between Ukrainian and Russian troops
:12:21. > :12:26.for two months. Let's move on. Written's public
:12:27. > :12:34.sector workers are to receive yet another below inflation pay
:12:35. > :12:37.increase. It comes as George Osborne is to deliver his budget on
:12:38. > :12:41.Wednesday. If the good news keeps coming, as the Prime Minister was
:12:42. > :12:46.said, should public sector workers get a bigger piece of the pie? How
:12:47. > :12:51.do you see this? It is difficult for any government to deal with public
:12:52. > :12:54.sector workers, including the biggest employer, the National
:12:55. > :12:58.Health Service? When George Osborne came in in 2010, he had a huge
:12:59. > :13:03.emphasis on public sector wage restraint in line with the austerity
:13:04. > :13:10.measures that he put in place and you can understand there was the
:13:11. > :13:14.deficit, a stagnating economy, inflation above the Bank of
:13:15. > :13:18.England's target of 2%. Now the situation has changed, the Bank of
:13:19. > :13:23.England thinks we will have 3.4% growth this year, the highest since
:13:24. > :13:27.2007. Inflation has fallen below the 2% target of the Bank of England, so
:13:28. > :13:31.he does have room to manoeuvre a little bit now, which is why it is
:13:32. > :13:37.so surprising that he has been so hard on the NHS, that he has gone
:13:38. > :13:42.ahead with this proposal to not even allow half of the NHS to get the
:13:43. > :13:49.1%, the measly 1% raise, that he promised them. And I think it looks
:13:50. > :13:53.like his endgame is, the budget we will get next week will be more
:13:54. > :13:58.austerity, more pain to come, but I think what he is banking on is, by
:13:59. > :14:00.November or maybe next March, right before the next general election,
:14:01. > :14:04.things will be looking much better, the deficit will be smaller, public
:14:05. > :14:11.borrowing will be local, and he will be able to then give away something
:14:12. > :14:15.that will boost election prospects. Is the presumption that people 's
:14:16. > :14:20.memories are short? If you have a giveaway budget in March 2015 and an
:14:21. > :14:26.election in May 2015, that is good news, so now is not a good time to
:14:27. > :14:30.give away everything? I think so, but as well they have staked their
:14:31. > :14:33.reputation on austerity. If they are seen to be backtracking they leave
:14:34. > :14:41.themselves open to attack. Also part of it is the unions say it is partly
:14:42. > :14:47.about progression and pay, if you are a nurse, year-on-year, you get
:14:48. > :14:52.an increment anyway, never mind 1%, and it is clear the government will
:14:53. > :14:58.want to end that hand that will be part of the negotiations will stop
:14:59. > :15:04.weekend to think, when we say public sector workers, nurses, clerical
:15:05. > :15:07.workers in the towel, whatever. But of course public sector workers
:15:08. > :15:13.include people who are very highly paid as well, and I would have
:15:14. > :15:20.thought that what they need to do is look at the low paid individuals and
:15:21. > :15:25.do something for them. After all, we are giving these people more money
:15:26. > :15:29.than it really looks because a lot of people who are low paid within
:15:30. > :15:33.the public sector will get pop-ups through tax credits, for example, so
:15:34. > :15:38.it really would just be shifting money from one public pop to another
:15:39. > :15:45.if they increased their pay so they were not getting so many benefits. I
:15:46. > :15:52.think they might come to this point later on because he still has two
:15:53. > :15:59.budgets to come before election, so he may address this point later on.
:16:00. > :16:03.But it comes in the week of this budget and also at a time when the
:16:04. > :16:08.Education Secretary has said quite famously there is a ridiculous
:16:09. > :16:10.number of old Etonian advisers around the Prime Minister, which
:16:11. > :16:14.plays into, it is interesting that he said that, it plays into the
:16:15. > :16:18.story that Labour wanted Talbot is that they are out of touch, they say
:16:19. > :16:26.we are in this together but we are not really. I think this is a part
:16:27. > :16:33.of the eternal fight of the leadership of the party, who is
:16:34. > :16:42.going to take over from Cameron? One of the main contenders is Boris
:16:43. > :16:51.Johnson, and old Italian? -- and old utopian. You think he is saying we
:16:52. > :16:59.do not want any more old Etonian at Number Ten, how about me, I would be
:17:00. > :17:02.a better candidate? It is not just people who are badly off who have
:17:03. > :17:11.issues, as we know from the comments that the Dean dobbies made in the
:17:12. > :17:15.past about posh boys... Saying that Cameron and Osborne are out of touch
:17:16. > :17:19.and don't know the price of milk? She spotted that people who have
:17:20. > :17:23.problems with all Pitodrie ins and posh boys are not just people who
:17:24. > :17:29.are badly off, it is the infamous squeezed middle, the role we would
:17:30. > :17:33.would have thought of as being prosperous but who have really felt
:17:34. > :17:39.the squeeze and have a real problem with people at the top being out of
:17:40. > :17:41.touch with them, let alone... And those are the people the
:17:42. > :17:44.Conservatives attracted wholeheartedly in the Thatcher
:17:45. > :17:49.years, Fatah had a direct line to the way they were thinking in a way
:17:50. > :17:54.which the current administration doesn't? I think Michael Gove is
:17:55. > :17:58.being rather canny. I think he might be spotting there is a group of
:17:59. > :18:02.people he can appeal to. He has just sent his daughter to a very good
:18:03. > :18:06.state school. He is allied himself with people of that kind, with the
:18:07. > :18:17.Conservative party need as their voters. It does there are a lot of
:18:18. > :18:23.them? I think it is exactly that. You have this polarisation of
:18:24. > :18:32.people. Another important point is that irrespective of who leads the
:18:33. > :18:41.Conservatives, the books will be balanced by 2019, so it is another
:18:42. > :18:49.parliament. You just take one pot of money from another. It is obvious
:18:50. > :18:54.from listening to the Shadow Chancellor that if Labour were in
:18:55. > :18:59.power, the thought of it is quite daunting. It is not as we are being
:19:00. > :19:03.offered at the next election a choice of gene someone who's going
:19:04. > :19:09.to give away a lot of money and somebody who is not going to give
:19:10. > :19:14.away a lot of money. Yes, a lot of the cuts that George Osborne has
:19:15. > :19:21.announced are going to hit after the next election. Ed Balls has outlined
:19:22. > :19:29.a series of tax rises, taxes on bankers' bonuses. Hitting pension
:19:30. > :19:36.contributions for anyone in the higher tax bracket. It is becoming
:19:37. > :19:41.pretty clear what your choices I. Labour will have to cut, there is no
:19:42. > :19:48.way they can close the gap to tax rises alone.
:19:49. > :19:51.Let's move on. A year ago a new Pope from the New World promised a new
:19:52. > :19:54.beginning for the Catholic Church. Pope Francis has been received very
:19:55. > :19:57.warmly, - but beyond a change in mood - are there really fundamental
:19:58. > :20:00.ways in which the church has changed, the bureaucracy improved
:20:01. > :20:03.and the scandals overcome? He has been a breath of fresh air and seems
:20:04. > :20:08.to be liked within the church and outside the church, but either any
:20:09. > :20:14.significant changes you can put your finger on? I think you have to
:20:15. > :20:22.remember that Pope Francis remains a catholic Pope. Some people talk as
:20:23. > :20:30.if a Reformation is underway. Nevertheless, we do have to
:20:31. > :20:35.recognise how important it is today that you have DVD charismatic
:20:36. > :20:43.leader. Leadership comes in many ways now and from charisma as much
:20:44. > :20:49.as authority. He has that and he has changed the way the Catholic Church
:20:50. > :20:53.is perceived, particularly by people outside the Catholic Church. There
:20:54. > :21:02.have been some major changes within it. He has made significant changes
:21:03. > :21:06.to personnel within the Vatican. He is bringing in people who are
:21:07. > :21:14.advising him, who were not part of that Vatican set, they are from
:21:15. > :21:17.around the world. He has brought in a new group of people who are going
:21:18. > :21:22.to look after the money in the Vatican. There has been a lot of
:21:23. > :21:27.concern about corruption within the Vatican bank. So there are changes,
:21:28. > :21:33.but in terms of doctrine, things are not changing. The Catholic Church
:21:34. > :21:38.does not make U-turns like a political party. It has doctrine and
:21:39. > :21:42.it develops it. If it is going to make changes in that sense, it is
:21:43. > :21:49.going to be very slow, very developmental. On that point, do you
:21:50. > :21:57.see an appetite for change within the catholic family? Many friends
:21:58. > :22:06.who are American Catholics want to change on contraception and other
:22:07. > :22:11.things. Do you see that as being intolerant response, that in the
:22:12. > :22:17.real world you do not be all the teachings of the church, because the
:22:18. > :22:24.Woody can do that, or do you see reform on these issues? There is
:22:25. > :22:29.definite talk of it. There is a very important thing coming up in
:22:30. > :22:38.October. Pope Francis wants to consult people, there was a westerly
:22:39. > :22:42.sent out to Catholics the world. The response has been pretty unanimous
:22:43. > :22:48.in saying that Catholics are really ignoring church teaching on
:22:49. > :22:53.contraception. The other one, with this seems to be the greatest
:22:54. > :22:57.request for change, is that people are very concerned about the
:22:58. > :23:02.position of divorced and remarried Catholics and the extent to which
:23:03. > :23:06.they feel outside the fold. Bishops from around the world seemed to be
:23:07. > :23:11.saying similar things, that they feel there needs to be movement. But
:23:12. > :23:16.as you mentioned, this is a universal Church. Catholics are not
:23:17. > :23:21.just Americans or Europeans, they are Africans and South Americans.
:23:22. > :23:31.The Catholic Church is growing in the South. We know that Benedict for
:23:32. > :23:38.many people in the Muslim world was not flavour of the month. You are
:23:39. > :23:47.right about that. He made a couple of remarks that really ended a lot
:23:48. > :23:55.of people. But you are right that Pope Francis is totally different,
:23:56. > :24:04.he is a breath of fresh air, because I think the Vatican and the Pope has
:24:05. > :24:14.a universal rule. There are more Catholics outside Europe than there
:24:15. > :24:18.are inside Europe. With this fresh air and with his background, coming
:24:19. > :24:24.from a third World country, it is extremely important. This has not
:24:25. > :24:34.happened before. And also being in touch with the have nots as much as
:24:35. > :24:40.the haves. Exactly. And hopefully he will do something. There are
:24:41. > :24:47.doubts, because of the structure, the existing culture in the church.
:24:48. > :24:54.It takes much longer to change the culture, but what is important is
:24:55. > :25:00.that people actually can relate to Pope Francis in a much, much deeper
:25:01. > :25:06.way in terms of his personality. He comes across as being very friendly
:25:07. > :25:09.and very open. In Russia, as soon as he does something that makes him
:25:10. > :25:18.stand out from the long queue of people who are meant to behave in
:25:19. > :25:24.that very restricted manner, people say, when was the last time you saw
:25:25. > :25:30.someone in the Russian Orthodox Church doing something like that?
:25:31. > :25:34.Having been raised as a strict Roman Catholic myself, I was very excited
:25:35. > :25:40.to see Pope Francis talk about a more inclusive, open church. He has
:25:41. > :25:45.even inspired Republicans in America to talk about equality in a way that
:25:46. > :25:50.is quite remarkable. He has done a lot to start the reform process of
:25:51. > :25:55.the Vatican bureaucracy. I am somewhat disappointed he has not
:25:56. > :25:58.taken on the sex abuse scandals in a more open way. He has not talked
:25:59. > :26:04.about that much. While he has condemned it, he has not approached
:26:05. > :26:07.it with the amount of transparency a lot of people were hoping for.
:26:08. > :26:11.We'll leave it there. That's it for Dateline London for this week. We're
:26:12. > :26:13.back next week at the same time. You can comment on the programme on
:26:14. > :26:43.Twitter @gavinesler hashtag BBC Dateline. Goodbye.
:26:44. > :26:44.If you have out your plans through the rest of the weekend, things are