:00:00. > :00:00.mother in 1972. A full bulletin at the top of the
:00:00. > :00:24.hour, but now, Dateline London live with Gavin Esler.
:00:25. > :00:32.Welcome to Dateline London. Has Vladimir Putin create add new world
:00:33. > :00:40.disorder? The hunt for the Malaysian missing airliner and Britain's beer
:00:41. > :00:48.and bingo budget. Mark Rush, Jan Daley, Mrs Tanyuck and Ged
:00:49. > :00:54.McAllister, an broadcaster, they all join me. Crimea's always been part
:00:55. > :00:57.of Russia. Putin dresses up his actions and
:00:58. > :01:02.however popular they may be in Russia, has he created a dangerous
:01:03. > :01:05.new precedent for solving territorial disputes by force and,
:01:06. > :01:09.give than he holds some strong cards, is there anything the rest of
:01:10. > :01:13.the world can do to make him think again? I'm conscious of the fact
:01:14. > :01:17.that the idea of solving a dispute is not what's happened, this dispute
:01:18. > :01:22.has not been solved and it's still running. How does it seem in Ukraine
:01:23. > :01:29.now do you think? In Ukraine, it's seen as an occupation of Ukrainian
:01:30. > :01:33.territory, illegal occupation. Ukraine invoked all agreements,
:01:34. > :01:42.including the security guarantees given to it by the United States
:01:43. > :01:50.Government. Ukraine in exchange for a third largest world nuclear
:01:51. > :01:54.arsenal was the integrity by the British and the Russian. Those
:01:55. > :02:17.assurances are now forgotten, not worth the paper they were written
:02:18. > :02:20.on. There is the position of two signatures in different places
:02:21. > :02:25.showed that Ukraine might have lost Crimea, albeit temporarily as Kiev
:02:26. > :02:29.hopes, but it's gained legitimacy and national legitimacy and support
:02:30. > :02:33.of the West. The West itself got rid of the illusions that Russia,
:02:34. > :02:39.Putin's Russia is the country in its own model, you know. You can do
:02:40. > :02:43.business? A normal way? Yes. A normal European country. This could
:02:44. > :02:48.be seen as a terrible precedent, couldn't it? Of course. This
:02:49. > :02:53.international agreement, which the Brits and the US signed um to, torn
:02:54. > :02:59.up, including the Russians? A Pandora's Box has been opened
:03:00. > :03:08.because where do you stop? Russian compatriots, as he calls them, could
:03:09. > :03:13.have their rights violated in Ukraine. These countries have been
:03:14. > :03:23.reassured by Joe Biden, last week, that NATO stands with them. But...
:03:24. > :03:33.For what that's worth. Germany might remember what was happening there
:03:34. > :03:43.and Poland would remember that three names from one city from Poland. Is
:03:44. > :03:47.that what you see it? Of course. We seem to remember the Second World
:03:48. > :03:52.War began when the ethnic Germans had to be reclaimed for Germany. He
:03:53. > :03:56.went on into Poland supposingly defending the Germans there too.
:03:57. > :04:02.This is just an outrageous and shameful incident from the point of
:04:03. > :04:05.view of the West. The West, Ukraine traded its nuclear arsenal on the
:04:06. > :04:09.understanding it would have the protection of the West. I'm afraid
:04:10. > :04:13.that people may be giving credit to America at the moment for being a
:04:14. > :04:17.bit tougher than the EU which isn't saying very much, but it was the
:04:18. > :04:21.signal that was sent by the Obama administration over Syria, for
:04:22. > :04:25.example. America is out of this game, we are not the world's
:04:26. > :04:31.policeman any more, go for it. That left a vacancy, a vacuum that Putin
:04:32. > :04:36.quite happily marched into. Let me put the Putin point of view as far
:04:37. > :04:42.as I can understand it which is Crimea's always traditionally been
:04:43. > :04:45.part of Russia, it's strategecally vital to them because of the Black
:04:46. > :04:49.Sea and the revolution or the changes in political Power in Kiev
:04:50. > :04:53.don't suit the Russians? Look, certainly don't suit them but the
:04:54. > :04:56.point is there was no threat. That was entirely a lie. There was no
:04:57. > :05:00.threat to the Black Sea fleet, there was no threat, correct me if I'm
:05:01. > :05:03.wrong, to the Russian military installations, they were there with
:05:04. > :05:07.the consent of the Ukrainian government. What he didn't like was
:05:08. > :05:11.that the old Russian imperial sphere of influence was being damaged by
:05:12. > :05:18.Ukraine's flirtation with the Europe. We'll come to the US in a
:05:19. > :05:22.moment. But you see Europe and the European Union signing this
:05:23. > :05:27.agreement because once this agreement is signed, Ukraine is
:05:28. > :05:31.partner of the Europe ideal and could aFloyd the European Union. The
:05:32. > :05:36.situation for the Europe is very difficult, we are divided. The
:05:37. > :05:43.British don't want sanctions because it's fantial. Germany doesn't want
:05:44. > :05:48.it because of energy, Germany and France doesn't because of industry
:05:49. > :05:51.export and the economy is not doing well and some kind knave ya doesn't
:05:52. > :06:09.want it for political reasons. I think on the whole, the Europe has
:06:10. > :06:14.been very courageous, sorry to say. I don't think Sarah is the reason
:06:15. > :06:20.Putin decided to move. He got upset his client, government, not quite
:06:21. > :06:27.client but friendly Government was getting washed away he has a sponge
:06:28. > :06:43.Sircy mind set. It's a funny combination of Hitler, Milosevic ``
:06:44. > :06:46.conspiracy mind set. You can't blame Obama for this. Look at everybody
:06:47. > :06:50.trying to figure out what to do about it. It's very difficult. He
:06:51. > :06:55.has a brilliant surgical strike. The question is, of course, what's next?
:06:56. > :07:01.Is this a precursor to more moving into Ukraine or, I don't think other
:07:02. > :07:06.places, Poland and Germany are going to do anything. It's Putin who is
:07:07. > :07:11.the problem. He's usually a cagey operator. He may have gotten enough
:07:12. > :07:15.domestic political balance and enough of a sense of
:07:16. > :07:18.self`satisfaction from it that he doesn't need to threaten the Russian
:07:19. > :07:23.economy which does have tied to the West. His hench men do have ties.
:07:24. > :07:30.Exactly. He needs to sell his gas and oil. The Germans and the other
:07:31. > :07:34.Eastern Europeans need to buy it. It gets colder, he could have his bank
:07:35. > :07:44.account depleted more quickly than they can stand being cold. But
:07:45. > :07:48.still, this is a long... We have seen yesterday the Russian oligarch
:07:49. > :07:55.which was targeted by Obama, not Europe, I agree with that one, had
:07:56. > :08:00.to sell his part for the trading of oil, trading a third of the oil of
:08:01. > :08:03.Russia because the banks didn't want to give collateral. That will happen
:08:04. > :08:10.more and more. All right. The Russian economy is...
:08:11. > :08:14.Nothing but the export of gas and oil. They are very vulnerable.
:08:15. > :08:18.Probably his adventurerses will stop, but the point is, this is
:08:19. > :08:25.abouty owe politics and the fact that America was the last remaining
:08:26. > :08:28.super Power `` about geopolitics. Putin said the collapse of the
:08:29. > :08:32.Soviet Union was a tragedy, he wants to see the old imperial Russia
:08:33. > :08:35.reestablishingth established on par with America as a super Power. His
:08:36. > :08:42.speech on Tuesday should be a wake`up call for the West because he
:08:43. > :08:45.not only harbours the revisionistic ideas about Russia's sphere of
:08:46. > :08:50.influence, not only sent should haves down the Ukrainian spine
:08:51. > :08:56.because he said, oh, Kiev is the mother of Russian cities, we all
:08:57. > :09:00.know Russian civilisation started with Kiev and Crimea was Russian
:09:01. > :09:04.only from the end of the 18th century when it was conquered by
:09:05. > :09:10.Katherine. Before that, it was controlled by the other people. The
:09:11. > :09:15.Tatas are worried about their future. So does he imply that his
:09:16. > :09:21.actual target for expansion of Russian Orthodox world is Kiev? Half
:09:22. > :09:27.of Ukraine? So the danger is, as I see it now, the West will accept
:09:28. > :09:32.annexation of Crimea as a fait accompli and try to stop him from
:09:33. > :09:35.expanding his military control or economic control from eastern and
:09:36. > :09:45.southern Ukraine. Rather than try to roll back? Yes. The only choice
:09:46. > :09:57.would be war. But he's eprepared to go to war. Nobody wanted to go to
:09:58. > :10:06.war over Sudan either. There was a ludicrous war and this one seems
:10:07. > :10:14.more ludicrous. He wants to be seen as Head of Super Power, he wants
:10:15. > :10:22.Somme of parity with America. We have a super Power. There's not only
:10:23. > :10:29.one super Power, there's also the European Union, not militarily, but
:10:30. > :10:32.economically. ALL SPEAK AT ONCE
:10:33. > :10:34.The element in this that we have to take into account is the shale oil
:10:35. > :10:38.revolution and the fact there's going to be a glut of cheap oil and
:10:39. > :10:43.gas which could put the Russian economy out of business in a big
:10:44. > :10:52.way. A final word on this I would like to remind people that without
:10:53. > :10:57.Ukraine, Russia will not be an empire. That is what Putin is afraid
:10:58. > :11:07.of, losing you crane to the European Union. New red line, never will
:11:08. > :11:16.Russia agree to NATO. `` Ukraine. Russia doesn't want to lose Ukraine
:11:17. > :11:21.because it still wants to `` still wants to be an empire. The Malaysian
:11:22. > :11:25.airliner en route to Beijing. The story's proved so compelling. Do we
:11:26. > :11:30.believe we'll ever find out what's happened? It's a classic appalling
:11:31. > :11:34.mystery isn't it? Frankly, nobody has a clue, despite the acres of
:11:35. > :11:37.coverage that you see on News Channels and the newspapers,
:11:38. > :11:41.nobody's got a clue what happened? That's one of the reasons why it's a
:11:42. > :11:47.compelling story. It's a mystery and everybody who's ever ridden in an
:11:48. > :11:54.aeroplane can identify. You your fave and safety in the hands of the
:11:55. > :11:58.big systems `` you put your faith and safety in the hands of the big
:11:59. > :12:04.systems and nothing happens much. When it goes so strangely wrong, as
:12:05. > :12:10.in this story, it's mesmerizing. Also, every FedEx package is tracked
:12:11. > :12:15.and you lose your iPhone, you can find it some place. Here is this $60
:12:16. > :12:23.million aeroplane with people on it and who knows where it is? It could
:12:24. > :12:30.be pilot suicide, terrorism or some strange combination of these things,
:12:31. > :12:34.malfunction in some order and we probably may not know the answer. I
:12:35. > :12:38.did some research about this. The World Health Organisation says 1.2
:12:39. > :12:42.million people are killed in car accidents in the world every year.
:12:43. > :12:46.That means 50,000 have been killed in car accidents in the time that
:12:47. > :12:49.these 300 people have been lost. I mean, it's a different kind of
:12:50. > :12:53.tragedy when it's distributed, but we are fixated in a way because we
:12:54. > :12:58.can identify and feel for them I think.
:12:59. > :13:04.But also, one of the things that's been really striking, is you have
:13:05. > :13:07.the east and west forced to open up considerably, perhaps not doing a
:13:08. > :13:11.great job of it in the difficult circumstances, and that is
:13:12. > :13:13.interesting too. Yes. There's a new world information order and people
:13:14. > :13:18.have to try to be more open? Especial shrill when dealing with
:13:19. > :13:23.international transport. Most of the passengers were Chinese, not
:13:24. > :13:26.Malaysian `` especially. They were people of various nationalities, so
:13:27. > :13:30.there is a global responsibility to be open about information. What's
:13:31. > :13:37.astonishing about this is the fact that because there are so few hard
:13:38. > :13:41.fact, it opens this kind of box of incredible conjecture, some of it
:13:42. > :13:44.absolutely wild and fantastical. People talking about alien
:13:45. > :13:48.invasions, you know, there's almost no limit to the speculation because
:13:49. > :13:53.we know so little. It does seem bizarre in the knowledge economy as
:13:54. > :13:55.we call it, in the society where everything is transparent, we can
:13:56. > :14:01.get the information about anything in a matter of seconds, suddenly
:14:02. > :14:04.this airliner, the height of a six storey building Kevanish from the
:14:05. > :14:08.face of the earth. It's absolutely bizarre. French viewers and
:14:09. > :14:13.newspaper readers are just as fixated? Absolutely. What I find
:14:14. > :14:21.interesting is how completely there is a new dimension in security
:14:22. > :14:24.because the passengers were in danger and always when I'm going to
:14:25. > :14:29.the airport, I find when there's the line where the crews go, it's quite
:14:30. > :14:35.light, much lighter security, so I think we'll have also to be much
:14:36. > :14:39.more careful about pilots, stewards, you know, they are part of the
:14:40. > :14:43.equation, not only the passengers. As was suggested, if you can't trust
:14:44. > :14:48.the pilot, who can you trust and we all trust the pilots and we don't
:14:49. > :14:53.even know whether the pilot was involved in this? Yes know nothing.
:14:54. > :14:58.It seems as though the crew has more questions asked than the passengers.
:14:59. > :15:10.What do you make of it? Ukrainians have been obsessed with war and how
:15:11. > :15:15.this is a fascinating story I just think about 239 families who have
:15:16. > :15:21.been suspended in this agonising wait for any sort of news. Also how
:15:22. > :15:26.technology is both at the core of this disappearance and at the core
:15:27. > :15:29.of our coverage of so far fruitless search for the plane which seems to
:15:30. > :15:35.have totally disappeared from the face of the earth or the ocean and
:15:36. > :15:42.SATs lites, 21 satellites searching for it `` satellites. Everybody
:15:43. > :15:47.house wife becomes all of a sudden an expert on transponders and black
:15:48. > :15:51.boxes, how to find a black box when it's buries thousands of feet under
:15:52. > :15:57.the water. It's fascinating and in a way, the search itself is a story
:15:58. > :16:02.when we find the debris of the plane, if ever, it will be over, but
:16:03. > :16:05.it will be the end of the fascination. Lots of books and
:16:06. > :16:15.films. I hope that produces pressure so
:16:16. > :16:20.that aircraft transmitting the black box data while they are still
:16:21. > :16:29.mid`flight. It is just a question of money and systems, but it can easily
:16:30. > :16:32.be done. Let's move on. Britain's annual
:16:33. > :16:35.budget offered some sweeping changes to pensions and one or two other
:16:36. > :16:38.measures which seemed directed towards older, wealthier voters. But
:16:39. > :16:41.in reducing tax on beer and bingo, admittedly relatively tiny measures,
:16:42. > :16:44.has the Chancellor hit on a populist vote`winner ` or was the way it was
:16:45. > :16:47.presented, as tax relief for working people's pleasures, a bit
:16:48. > :16:56.condescending, as some critics have claimed? What did you make of it?
:16:57. > :17:00.The chairman of the Conservative Party suggested it was a beer and
:17:01. > :17:05.bingo budget. It was a bit bigger than that. It certainly was. They
:17:06. > :17:13.have smashed open the pensions market. Now every pension pot
:17:14. > :17:27.holder, it's not just the wealthy, but people with small pensions will
:17:28. > :17:32.have more flexibility. Fewer and fewer people have pensions, because
:17:33. > :17:38.they were such a stupid thing to invest in after they were decimated.
:17:39. > :17:43.Anyway, the year and bingo thing, that was tremendously well played by
:17:44. > :17:47.Labour, because they had nothing to say about the budget they wanted a
:17:48. > :17:51.story that would somehow look as if it was damaging the Conservatives.
:17:52. > :17:55.It was a dumb thing to have done, it was out of touch, patronising and
:17:56. > :18:01.insulting, but those of us old enough to remember the recall that a
:18:02. > :18:09.few decades ago, it was common for the Labour Party, when tax was put
:18:10. > :18:14.on beer or gambling, they said they were taxes on the poorer, as if the
:18:15. > :18:19.pure had no capacity for cutting back on the smoking or drinking or
:18:20. > :18:23.gambling, as if they were prisoners of their bad habits. That was the
:18:24. > :18:29.traditional Labour response to any budget. So I am not terribly
:18:30. > :18:36.impressed by the Labour Party's critique, because they use to do it
:18:37. > :18:42.as a matter of course. What surprised me was a budget that
:18:43. > :18:47.brings about a revolution for people with pensions, was stepped upon so
:18:48. > :18:56.effectively by this beer and bingo matter, because that was a degree of
:18:57. > :19:00.incompetence. It is exactly what people like me see Britain as a
:19:01. > :19:14.class ridden society, we're bingo and beer are seen by the people
:19:15. > :19:20.ruling Downing Street. The old Etonians, who ruled this country,
:19:21. > :19:26.have seen it as something to give to the working class. It is terribly
:19:27. > :19:31.condescending. In meritocratic country like France and Germany or
:19:32. > :19:39.Scandinavia, we wouldn't dare treat people like that. France doesn't
:19:40. > :19:46.have a class system? France doesn't have bingo. But it has a real
:19:47. > :19:56.distinction between urban areas and frugal areas. France doesn't have
:19:57. > :20:04.five its schools. We'll come back to the beer and bingo in a moment.
:20:05. > :20:08.The budget was trying not to make a mess, and pensions are technical.
:20:09. > :20:16.One of the reasons the beer and bingo thing got covered was that
:20:17. > :20:23.pensions are complicated. People are concerned about it, but annuities,
:20:24. > :20:26.everybody's eyes glaze over. Our readership that the Telegraph,
:20:27. > :20:33.everybody over the age of 50 is galvanised. Yes, so this is good for
:20:34. > :20:38.getting the Tory faithful back. It is not a bad thing in other
:20:39. > :20:49.respects. The economy is getting a little better, there is still ahead
:20:50. > :20:54.in the polls. Labour have now decided they are endorsing the
:20:55. > :21:00.pension policy. Ideal ago, Labour were talking about the living
:21:01. > :21:04.standards crisis. Osborne did not even talk about that in this budget,
:21:05. > :21:09.because that has been neutered. It looks like the Conservatives feel
:21:10. > :21:17.pretty confident towards the next general election. Beer and bingo
:21:18. > :21:25.didn't seem as condescending as the pension revolution, it was said in
:21:26. > :21:28.the House of Commons afterwards that some pensioners would be
:21:29. > :21:36.irresponsible enough to blow some of their pension pots on buying a yacht
:21:37. > :21:45.or a car. That is condescending, because it meant the commentators
:21:46. > :21:49.don't trust people. It was Labour who made that case, because they
:21:50. > :21:57.said it was dangerous to allow people to have control over their
:21:58. > :22:03.own money. Do you accept that the reason the shambolic budgets come
:22:04. > :22:11.before was so because of the things like the pasty tax. It was a dumb
:22:12. > :22:18.thing to do, but I can remember a time not long ago when Labour used
:22:19. > :22:22.to say taxes on smoking and drinking when an attacker working class
:22:23. > :22:26.people, because working`class people have no control over their impulses,
:22:27. > :22:28.so we'll go in for smoking and drinking and gambling as much as
:22:29. > :22:38.they did before, even though the prices have gone up stop
:22:39. > :22:42.productivity is low, the deficit will not go down, because the rich
:22:43. > :22:47.people will go around not bingo tax properly, but basically, there is a
:22:48. > :22:57.feeling that people are not better off and that is the danger for the
:22:58. > :23:05.Conservatives. I think that was true a year ago, but less so now. People
:23:06. > :23:08.are angry about household heating and electricity bills, that is
:23:09. > :23:12.outrageous. They are not happy about food prices, but I don't think there
:23:13. > :23:19.is a feeling there was a year ago over a crisis in household income. I
:23:20. > :23:22.don't think that is the same. Trends are important, so if things appear
:23:23. > :23:29.to be getting better, people will feel that way. Gtech this is enough
:23:30. > :23:37.to help it see off UKIP? I think it will help, but emotive
:23:38. > :23:43.issues on which UKIP operate, they still have some kind of thing going
:23:44. > :23:49.for them. If the growth rate went up to 5% in six months, OK, but I think
:23:50. > :23:54.UKIP still has some cards to play. Nigel file which made that point, it
:23:55. > :24:03.is not just about whether we would be better off or not. Yes he said he
:24:04. > :24:07.would raise the threshold for higher rate tax. It is a technical matter,
:24:08. > :24:16.but the higher rate tax has not been increased in anything like realistic
:24:17. > :24:26.proportions. People are now paying higher rate tax when they are in one
:24:27. > :24:39.and a half times now the average wage. It brings the immigration
:24:40. > :24:50.issue again. When they introduced 75% higher tax in France, a famous
:24:51. > :24:57.French people left France for Russia to escape the tax. Somebody branded
:24:58. > :25:03.the new budget is seeking the grey boat, and they probably got it
:25:04. > :25:17.right, because if it is all about the grey boat, the pension form will
:25:18. > :25:23.do that Conservatives a lot of good. They'd vote. They are the most
:25:24. > :25:26.reliable voting constituency in the country. People from 45 and 50
:25:27. > :25:30.onwards, who is that thinking about what they are going to do for their
:25:31. > :25:36.pension. They start to think about the security of their old age. The
:25:37. > :25:39.grey boat is a very misleading term. That's it for Dateline London for
:25:40. > :25:43.this week. We're back next week at the same time. Please join us then.
:25:44. > :25:44.And you can of course comment on the programme on Twitter @gavinesler
:25:45. > :26:16.hashtag BBCDATELINE. Goodbye. Good morning. This time last year,
:26:17. > :26:21.thousands of homes in Northern Ireland were without electricity.
:26:22. > :26:28.Snow had brought down power lines. There is snow this week, but not as
:26:29. > :26:29.bad as that. There will be rain, hail,