:00:00. > 3:59:59will be drier and brighter, with Scotland still a little bit wet and
:00:00. > :00:32.cloudy. Welcome to the programme. Three big
:00:33. > :00:49.elections in France, India and Afghanistan. The people of France
:00:50. > :00:53.went to the polls, at least some of them did, and delivered a stinging
:00:54. > :01:00.rebuke to to the speech of Francois Hollande. How much trouble as France
:01:01. > :01:04.really in, and in the run`up to the European Parliament elections, is
:01:05. > :01:09.this affecting most European governments? In terms of the
:01:10. > :01:16.president, is he being reinvigorated in this, or did people not actually
:01:17. > :01:21.care? Everything is relative. Usually the participation in France
:01:22. > :01:25.is extremely high compared to other countries. Especially during the
:01:26. > :01:31.presidential election, remember during the second round with Nicolas
:01:32. > :01:38.Sarkozy, 87% of the people went to cast their vote. This time it is
:01:39. > :01:42.61%, but is a historical low. If you compare it with other countries, it
:01:43. > :01:51.is a lot better than Britain. That was my point, actually.
:01:52. > :02:06.Traditionally, people from the left do not go and vote, but people from
:02:07. > :02:07.the to Don Revie said President Holland needs to change course. That
:02:08. > :03:00.is what happened. His former Interior Minister is a
:03:01. > :03:04.strong figure. He is divisive within the French left. He belongs to the
:03:05. > :03:10.right of the left. The Economist said he was a socialist Sarkozy, I
:03:11. > :03:16.am not sure about that, but his market is liberal. We thought has he
:03:17. > :03:26.learnt his lesson? He is taking action, but the day after we've got
:03:27. > :03:32.the new Cabinet and it is old faces. The most interesting thing of all.
:03:33. > :03:38.Why is it the most interesting thing? The person is the former
:03:39. > :03:42.partner of the president who must have a big smile on her face, I
:03:43. > :03:49.reckon. She must be happy to see the back of
:03:50. > :03:52.her rival in his private life. It is a soap opera. What you said earlier
:03:53. > :04:01.really is interesting, why does the left, whether it is in France or
:04:02. > :04:09.here, why have they lost the will? Have they lost the ideas? Aren't we
:04:10. > :04:15.just a little bit lazy too? In referring to parties like Labour and
:04:16. > :04:20.the Socialist Party on France's left. Based on when I became
:04:21. > :04:29.politically aware as a teenager, they are at best Macmillanite and
:04:30. > :04:32.the Democrats are Republicans for goodness sake. Let's stop talking
:04:33. > :04:36.about the left, but the thing that interested me about this election
:04:37. > :04:40.was two things. One is it shows that Paris really is divorced in the way
:04:41. > :04:45.that London is divorced from the rest of the country. It remains a
:04:46. > :04:50.socialist stronghold, but that kind of socialist because you have to be
:04:51. > :04:56.a millionaire to live in Paris really. Less of a millionaire than
:04:57. > :05:06.in London. Well, here you have to be a billionaire or oligarch. UKIP
:05:07. > :05:15.shows nationalism is really becoming the Is. Is `` ism of the moment and
:05:16. > :05:21.these parties are drawing disaffected left`wing voters behind
:05:22. > :05:28.a nationalist banner. I think in trance we look at the National Front
:05:29. > :05:33.and we worry about it, but Marie Le Pen has been successful in
:05:34. > :05:39.legitimising a party that under her father was clearly racist and is
:05:40. > :05:48.becoming a real potent force. I think they haven't broken through
:05:49. > :05:53.yet. They are still in that 15% or below category, but there is better
:05:54. > :05:58.prospect for Marie Le Pen than her father, but to come back to the
:05:59. > :06:03.point that we were making, hisically and `` historically and generally,
:06:04. > :06:07.there is medium`term blues and therefore during medium`term you
:06:08. > :06:12.have freak results, but added to that has been this economic downturn
:06:13. > :06:19.and that economic downturn has not really turned around as
:06:20. > :06:23.spectacularly as you would in the European theatre. And people blame
:06:24. > :06:26.whatever Government is in power? Whether it is the extreme right in
:06:27. > :06:34.France or the UKIP in Britain, these are part and parcel of developments
:06:35. > :06:40.which are a combination of what I describe as medium`term blues and
:06:41. > :06:43.the economic melt down. It is really false presumption to say there is no
:06:44. > :06:47.difference between the left and the right. There is a very big
:06:48. > :06:52.difference. It is a very clear difference. There is a left. I am
:06:53. > :06:57.saying when we speak of a left, you know, the implication is that
:06:58. > :07:03.socialist or Social Democratic and I am not sure that's true anymore. It
:07:04. > :07:13.is clear wherever. There is much bigger faith in a Welfare State and
:07:14. > :07:19.a smaller state. Workers' wages and rights. There are some very clear
:07:20. > :07:26.dividing lines. What about workers rights for example? I am going to
:07:27. > :07:31.look at rights. Can we sitting here today, a year from an election be
:07:32. > :07:35.certain that if you vote for Ed Miliband's party, for the Labour
:07:36. > :07:38.Party, that there will be strict regulation of the City of London
:07:39. > :07:40.within six months of his taking office, within five years of his
:07:41. > :07:46.taking office if he gets elected Prime Minister? No. Can we be
:07:47. > :07:51.certain that these, you know, contracts, these hour, no hour
:07:52. > :07:57.contracts, zero hour contracts will be made illegal the day after Labour
:07:58. > :08:05.takes power? This is a different conversation we're having. There is
:08:06. > :08:10.a big difference. To go back to the French election and I do think, yes,
:08:11. > :08:16.the economic downturn and so on, but I do also think that there has been
:08:17. > :08:23.a rolling over by those people who in the past would have cared to
:08:24. > :08:30.speak up. It seems as if the left is either too scared or too indifferent
:08:31. > :08:35.or in the case of France, it is from where I am sitting, careless. Or
:08:36. > :08:41.divided. The problem is if you look at Cabinet, the new French Cabinet,
:08:42. > :08:48.you have got all the representatives of the factions of the Socialist
:08:49. > :08:53.Party. It looks as if President Holland is running not a country,
:08:54. > :08:56.but a Socialist Party. And has to keep everybody happy? Exactly. Do
:08:57. > :09:02.you see the argument in France. It goes back to something you touched
:09:03. > :09:08.on where you can ip is strong `` UKIP is strong and the National
:09:09. > :09:13.Front is strong, they are all the same. It seems to be a club for
:09:14. > :09:21.insiders. If you are an outsider like Marie Le Pen and Nigel Farage,
:09:22. > :09:25.you can make a lot of head way? They are the same, right, left and they
:09:26. > :09:30.are not. I agree with you... There is the unpopularity of the president
:09:31. > :09:35.at the moment. Yes. And his performance over the last two years
:09:36. > :09:43.which added to his woes. The problem with president Holland although he
:09:44. > :09:50.is a nice warmer man that his predecessor. He wants to please
:09:51. > :09:56.everyone. Sarkozy didn't suffer from that problem? They detested him. And
:09:57. > :10:03.particularly women, he wants to please all women. For a person who
:10:04. > :10:13.is described as colourless, he has a very colourful private life. Indeed.
:10:14. > :10:17.Organising elections in India is an astonishing thing. What's at stake
:10:18. > :10:22.for India and given the growing importance of the country's economy
:10:23. > :10:25.and the rivalleries with spak `` rivalries with Pakistan and China.
:10:26. > :10:30.The scope of the election is amazing. Anybody who thinks of 800
:10:31. > :10:38.million or most of them going to the polls, has to be in awe of how India
:10:39. > :10:42.exercises this? It is a staggering exercise in democracy. It has to be
:10:43. > :10:46.held in not just one day, but over several phases because there are
:10:47. > :10:49.security implications and therefore, more and more of the election
:10:50. > :10:53.commission in India which is an efficient and independent body has
:10:54. > :10:56.found it necessary to spread it out rather than have it altogether. It
:10:57. > :11:00.means you can move security personnel from area to area because
:11:01. > :11:08.they are the trained people? Precisely. In terms of what's at
:11:09. > :11:17.stake now? The economist front page cover story, can anyone stop? A
:11:18. > :11:20.month is a long time and what happens between now and the final
:11:21. > :11:25.round of voting which is the 12th May, the first round by the way is
:11:26. > :11:30.on Monday. Is something which is still a little bit up in the air. If
:11:31. > :11:42.you ask a pollster today then he will tell you that the right`wing
:11:43. > :11:47.party which is led by this rather unacceptable leader will probably
:11:48. > :11:52.emerge as the largest single party. Sorry, for those people not familiar
:11:53. > :11:57.with him. Just to go back to what I was saying before, does he
:11:58. > :12:04.capitalise on the fact that he is a bit of an outsider? Look at the
:12:05. > :12:07.Gandy family and look at others and he is quite successful? His
:12:08. > :12:12.propaganda has been very successful over a sustained period particularly
:12:13. > :12:17.over the past three to four years and he has painted the Congress
:12:18. > :12:24.Party as being incompetent, utterly corrupt. Now, this is a perception
:12:25. > :12:30.when it comes to some of what he has been saying, but what he has been
:12:31. > :12:35.saying has certainly created a resonance and therefore, you have a
:12:36. > :12:40.situation where a really dangerous situation could emerge in India. It
:12:41. > :12:47.is a disturbing development in Indian politics, whether it will
:12:48. > :12:51.happen or not, I don't know because the BJP will find it difficult to
:12:52. > :12:56.get coalition partners in order to get a majority. Well, how divisive
:12:57. > :13:02.do you see him? Oh, completely. He was banned from the USA. This
:13:03. > :13:09.entire, massacre which is what it was has been unaddressed by him and
:13:10. > :13:15.I am astonished how many Indians in this country are active, funders of
:13:16. > :13:21.this man and active supporters of this man, but where I think hope may
:13:22. > :13:27.lie I remember being in India in that election when the BJP last won,
:13:28. > :13:34.you know, and it was quite shocking how quickly the population, with
:13:35. > :13:40.this propaganda and it was overtly anti`Muslim, anti`Christian, quite
:13:41. > :13:44.dangerously Hindu fundamentalist in many ways, they wanted to rewrite
:13:45. > :13:51.the textbooks and they wanted to create a new histor but... They did
:13:52. > :13:54.rewrite the textbooks. But they disappeared in the next election and
:13:55. > :14:05.that was interesting. The thing that interested me by chance, I was at an
:14:06. > :14:07.airport and the rally was a kilometre away. Bombs went off. Four
:14:08. > :14:13.people were killed. He gave the speech and I was in the lounge
:14:14. > :14:17.waiting to takeoff and everyone was watching, I haven't seen a
:14:18. > :14:23.politician hold a room of ordinary people like that in a long time.
:14:24. > :14:27.Maybe Tony Blair in the mid`1990s when he took over the Labour Party,
:14:28. > :14:35.he seemed to be some hope figure. Or Obama at the very start. Or Obama, I
:14:36. > :14:40.don't speak the language, but everyone was hanging on his every
:14:41. > :14:46.word. He has been successful at avoiding the questions about the
:14:47. > :14:50.massacres and why is he successful? Because he turned the area around
:14:51. > :14:53.economically and he appeals to this new middle`class because he is
:14:54. > :14:57.saying, you know, I'm going to take the regulations away, you will be
:14:58. > :15:02.able to make your money and you won't have to bribe the Congress
:15:03. > :15:13.official to get your export licence. And this is a very big deal. The
:15:14. > :15:17.libertarian, charismatic politician. Nigel Farage is a
:15:18. > :15:21.complete establishment figure. He is an MEP, earning lots and lots of
:15:22. > :15:34.money for not even doing the job. He is an insider. He prevents him as
:15:35. > :15:42.being an outsider. He has been part of this organisation called the RHS
:15:43. > :15:51.which runs and controls the BJP and he in his present dispensation which
:15:52. > :15:56.is chief minister has this development model which is another
:15:57. > :16:03.distortion and exaggeration because while there has been some good work
:16:04. > :16:06.done, and in industry and investment has been fast`tracked, but it is a
:16:07. > :16:14.case of the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer.
:16:15. > :16:19.The poorest are the Muslims. It is interesting this suggestion about
:16:20. > :16:26.people who say they are outsiders, but actually, Marie Le Pen is an
:16:27. > :16:31.interesting case. Of course. It is interesting we haven't uttered the
:16:32. > :16:35.word the Gandi family. It is interesting the Indians should
:16:36. > :16:40.actually look as if they are fed`up and want to change, but perhaps for
:16:41. > :16:45.another dynasty and in France as well, you know, Marie Le Pen is not
:16:46. > :16:52.an outsider. Is that the story of our times, insiders pretending to be
:16:53. > :16:57.outsiders and people buy it? The outsider thing helps. You know, a
:16:58. > :17:01.few years ago, Nick Clegg was the outsider. They did the debates,
:17:02. > :17:05.right? Nick Clegg knew he had no chance of winning that election. So
:17:06. > :17:11.he could say whatever he wanted. He seemed fresh. He speaks his mind. He
:17:12. > :17:14.is not, you know, focus grouping his soundbites and now Nigel Farage
:17:15. > :17:18.takes on Nick Clegg, Nick Clegg is the Deputy Prime Minister, he can't
:17:19. > :17:22.say what he really thinks because he is speaking, in a way, he is a
:17:23. > :17:25.Government figure. Nigel Farage can say whatever he likes and the public
:17:26. > :17:30.is so hungry, there is so much politics on TV anyway with the 24
:17:31. > :17:33.hour news cycle, people are hungry to hear somebody say not a
:17:34. > :17:37.soundbite, but a straight talk and they don't think about the
:17:38. > :17:45.implications, they are saying he seems genuine or she seems genuine.
:17:46. > :17:51.I do not even understand a word authentic. We are not smoking any
:17:52. > :17:56.more, we are much healthier, thanks to Europe. There are better workers
:17:57. > :18:00.rights, thanks to Europe. But no one asks the real question is, what do
:18:01. > :18:04.you mean, what are these regulations, how have they affected
:18:05. > :18:07.our nation? It is this idea we do not want the state to do anything,
:18:08. > :18:14.but at the same time we want them to do everything. It is a very confused
:18:15. > :18:23.democratic mindset now. Let us move on. The attack on two
:18:24. > :18:26.western women journalists in Afghanistan reminds us not just of
:18:27. > :18:31.the dangers in that country as Afghans also have been going to the
:18:32. > :18:35.polls. It also reminds us that a war which has now lasted longer than the
:18:36. > :18:37.First and Second World Wars put together has not brought peace, and
:18:38. > :18:40.whatever social changes have been achieved could also be reversed. How
:18:41. > :18:43.hopeful should we be about Afghanistan's future? You have to be
:18:44. > :18:46.hopeful. Of course you have to be hopeful. But was it worth it? All
:18:47. > :18:51.this time, all this money? I do not know. What I do know is that life
:18:52. > :18:57.expectancy has gone up 20 years, the economy has quadrupled, there are
:18:58. > :19:04.some good signs. And seeing these women going out to vote. How long
:19:05. > :19:11.will it be before the Taliban margins in and hangs people on
:19:12. > :19:19.trees? I cannot tell you. Once the majority, there is a lot of things
:19:20. > :19:23.that have to be sorted out, but ones that stick the Caliban have used for
:19:24. > :19:27.years, talking about puppet governments, once that are seen to
:19:28. > :19:33.be removed, it takes away some of the credibility that the Caliban can
:19:34. > :19:38.have in that argument, saying we are run an occupied country. They could
:19:39. > :19:42.hit back in certain pockets of Afghanistan. I do not think they
:19:43. > :19:47.have the ability at the present moment of taking on the whole of
:19:48. > :19:53.Afghanistan or the entire Afghanistan administration and
:19:54. > :19:55.security forces, even after the withdrawal of American troops. The
:19:56. > :20:00.good news is this is the third election taking place in Afghanistan
:20:01. > :20:05.in a row, and you are looking at a peaceful handover of power, which is
:20:06. > :20:11.a great development by itself, it is a positive sign and there is room
:20:12. > :20:18.for optimism. But certainly, when Western troops withdraw from
:20:19. > :20:21.Afghanistan at the end of the year, I think the security situation will
:20:22. > :20:37.be looked at more closely. And Pakistan has an important role to
:20:38. > :20:45.play in discouraging the Caliban. `` Taliban. Do you think the first role
:20:46. > :20:49.will be to decide what role the Americans have to play in the
:20:50. > :20:57.future? Yes, a final agreement is yet to be signed. But the aid deals
:20:58. > :21:05.depend on it. See you think something will have to come from it.
:21:06. > :21:16.Presumably President Karzai will remain a figure in the politics? He
:21:17. > :21:19.may, he may not. It flashes across my news feed all the time, he may
:21:20. > :21:27.just be moving next door to the presidential palace. The short`term
:21:28. > :21:34.thing is we should be really pleased. People are genuinely
:21:35. > :21:41.interested in creating a democratic Afghanistan. We have to be hopeful
:21:42. > :21:49.and support them. But the future of Afghanistan in the medium`term is it
:21:50. > :21:52.has got phenomenal potential natural resources to export, and this is
:21:53. > :21:56.where the dark question comes in because the Chinese, who have been
:21:57. > :22:02.building the world's largest copper mine, just south`west of Kabul have
:22:03. > :22:06.pulled out because the security situation is too poor. They need to
:22:07. > :22:11.be brought back in. Other international groups need to be
:22:12. > :22:15.brought back into provide real employment because right now
:22:16. > :22:25.warlords provide the employment, and as long as you have that you cannot
:22:26. > :22:27.establish democracy. I had a private conversation with an American
:22:28. > :22:30.military official who said that the one thing that can transform
:22:31. > :22:35.Afghanistan more than anything is proper railway links to get natural
:22:36. > :22:41.resources to the outside world properly. That has a security
:22:42. > :22:45.dimension, which is the problem, but to change the infrastructure to
:22:46. > :22:51.connect Afghanistan in a different way would transform the country. It
:22:52. > :22:57.would, and it is interesting, in the late 90s, Afghanistan used to visit
:22:58. > :23:02.the United States because they were going to build a pipeline from
:23:03. > :23:07.Turkmenistan through Afghanistan. The company went out of business, so
:23:08. > :23:24.perhaps we can revive these contact is in the oil industry! . But it has
:23:25. > :23:27.not changed the balance. I think the Western alliance needs to come
:23:28. > :23:34.clean, was this worth it? They have still not told us how many ordinary
:23:35. > :23:38.Afghans have been killed by forces and drones, both in Pakistan and
:23:39. > :23:43.here. It was shocking to me that the today programme two days ago said,
:23:44. > :23:48.how many of our soldiers were killed? But they did not even give a
:23:49. > :23:53.number, let alone names, how many Afghans died in this venture? We
:23:54. > :24:00.cannot just walk away as if we have done nothing here. But today, as we
:24:01. > :24:05.mentioned, the images coming from Afghanistan, I think we have to
:24:06. > :24:10.suspend our judgement about politics and what is going to happen, and I
:24:11. > :24:20.think it is good to be slightly naive and to rejoice. This woman who
:24:21. > :24:25.said, with that hand I slapped the Taliban. So 70 years ago, French
:24:26. > :24:40.women were given the right to vote, and today I just happy... Cyan, yes,
:24:41. > :24:53.but we have two look at what we did, good and bad. We have to look at
:24:54. > :24:57.India's State. Yes, India has put in nearly $2 billion of investment into
:24:58. > :25:02.Afghanistan. Ansel India has played, I must say, a very
:25:03. > :25:05.constructive role. That it is important to get chain are
:25:06. > :25:09.interested in Afghanistan, and I will tell you why. China pulling out
:25:10. > :25:15.of copper mines and suchlike is not good news. The international
:25:16. > :25:16.community needs to get chain are involved because of China
:25:17. > :25:22.involved, then Pakistan will stay involved, then Pakistan will stay
:25:23. > :25:27.away from Mr. That is necessary because, once China goes in, they
:25:28. > :25:33.will make sure that Pakistan does not get involved with the Taliban to
:25:34. > :25:42.create mischief. The other point is that the Americans went in without a
:25:43. > :25:46.plan to exit. They went in with that one agenda of defeating the Taliban,
:25:47. > :25:51.removing the Taliban, which is fine, I have no problems with that, but
:25:52. > :25:57.they needed a plan to have stability in Afghanistan. We have to leave it
:25:58. > :26:01.here. We are back next week at the same time. Please join us then. You
:26:02. > :26:27.can comment on the programme on twitter. `` Twitter.
:26:28. > :26:33.Hello. This gives you a sense of some of the major themes from this
:26:34. > :26:38.weekend's weather prospects. There will be rain at times and a lot of
:26:39. > :26:43.cloud around. There will be a fresh breeze, but that is coming from the
:26:44. > :26:46.south`west, which has banished many of the pollution problems we have
:26:47. > :26:47.seen in some parts of Britain