:00:00. > :00:22.I will be back with a full bulletin at the top of the hour.
:00:23. > :00:26.Hello and welcome to Dateline London.
:00:27. > :00:29.Russia wants to start World War Three ` according to Ukraine's prime
:00:30. > :00:33.minister. What is going on in Eastern Ukraine? The Palestinians
:00:34. > :00:36.move towards reconciliation with each other ` but not with Israel.
:00:37. > :00:41.And Tony Blair appears to want a coalition of the willing to take on
:00:42. > :00:45.militant Islam. Will he get it? My guests today are: Polly Toynbee
:00:46. > :00:47.of the Guardian. Abdel Bari Atwan, who is an Arab writer and
:00:48. > :00:50.journalist. Saul Zadka, of Arise News Television Alexander Nekrassov,
:00:51. > :00:58.who is a Russian journalist and former Kremlin adviser.
:00:59. > :01:03.A week or so after the hopeful news from Geneva that all sides want the
:01:04. > :01:07.Ukraine crisis solved peacefully we have had a series of flash`points on
:01:08. > :01:10.the ground ` a stiffening of resolve from Western powers against Russia `
:01:11. > :01:13.the threat of more sanctions ` more Russian troop manoeuvres ` and an
:01:14. > :01:16.increase of rhetoric including the idea that Russia might be pushing us
:01:17. > :01:34.towards World War Three. Is Russia trying to eat away at Ukraine bit by
:01:35. > :01:38.bit? Russia does not really need Eastern Ukraine. That would be
:01:39. > :01:43.expensive for Russia. The problem is that when we hear the Prime Minister
:01:44. > :01:48.seeing that Russia wants to start world War three, that tells me that
:01:49. > :01:51.the TF regime is desperate. The reason it is desperate is because it
:01:52. > :01:56.was expecting a lot of money from the West to come immediately and
:01:57. > :02:04.that is not coming. If you remember, the previous deal, Russia offered
:02:05. > :02:09.$15 million to Ukraine. That was on the table. Now we have Joe Biden
:02:10. > :02:18.coming over and saying, I brought you 50 million to fight corruption.
:02:19. > :02:21.But it is not really exciting. I am interested in how you are
:02:22. > :02:26.framing this. You're framing this in business monetary terms. Or do you
:02:27. > :02:29.see it as something to do with national identity? Or as people in
:02:30. > :02:34.the West are saying, this is subversion by Russia to try to grab
:02:35. > :02:41.land? You don't think it's Russia's interests to do that?
:02:42. > :02:45.The problem is that when this violent overthrow the regime
:02:46. > :02:49.happened in February, and it was a regime accepted by the European
:02:50. > :02:55.Union as democratically elected, we must remember that, I think a lot of
:02:56. > :02:59.things have changed in Ukraine in practically one day. I think that
:03:00. > :03:06.all those suspicions that we had for centuries there suddenly came up and
:03:07. > :03:13.manifested themselves. It is difficult to control the situation
:03:14. > :03:16.in Ukraine at the moment. I personally do not see any point or
:03:17. > :03:22.any hope of any diplomatic solution at the moment. When the Geneva talks
:03:23. > :03:27.happened, it was obvious it would not deliver anything, simply because
:03:28. > :03:33.the eastern part of Ukraine was not represented there. That was a key
:03:34. > :03:36.point. They had to have somebody representing the east. And Russia
:03:37. > :03:44.was supposed to represent the east and it did not work. I think we
:03:45. > :03:53.might see another Serie A in the eastern Ukraine. There are a lot of
:03:54. > :04:00.grievances there. I visited Latvia and met officials there. They were
:04:01. > :04:07.scared because there is a sizeable Russian minority there. It is
:04:08. > :04:11.completely isolated. It is separated from the whole of society. They have
:04:12. > :04:16.their own newspaper, their own schools, their own clubs. They do
:04:17. > :04:21.not mix. They are not participating in the Government. I believe the
:04:22. > :04:33.same thing is existing now in the east of Ukraine. If the situation
:04:34. > :04:42.continues, with the Russians using this as an excuse, I think we may
:04:43. > :04:49.see another Syria. This makes me think of another
:04:50. > :04:52.Balkans. The unfitting of hundreds of years of history. And people who
:04:53. > :05:01.have been mixed up for various reasons. A great danger. All of
:05:02. > :05:07.those countries surrounding Russia could see the same kinds of problems
:05:08. > :05:11.erupt. But what is difficult for Europe and America to understand, is
:05:12. > :05:18.the extent to which this is really popular in Russia. This huge
:05:19. > :05:24.popularity for President Putin. Usually, nationalism is something
:05:25. > :05:29.for the lower classes. But this is involving the educated classes. On
:05:30. > :05:33.the other hand, he is punching above his weight economic law. It is a
:05:34. > :05:37.country with the same economic power as Italy. Only sanctions can he
:05:38. > :05:44.take? On the other hand, is Europe really willing to turn the screw on
:05:45. > :05:53.sanctions? 's I spoke to an American diplomat and he said that America
:05:54. > :05:57.was prepared to cut off the banking system of Russia. He said that
:05:58. > :06:00.Europeans will have to all online because they will have a choice, to
:06:01. > :06:09.do business with the United States ought to do business with Russia. If
:06:10. > :06:13.it comes to that. It is not entirely clear to me. You
:06:14. > :06:19.have to remember about the energy that comes from Russia. To what
:06:20. > :06:25.extent will the Germans and others dare to turn off that tap? We have
:06:26. > :06:29.had threats from Russia, to turn off the energy supply to Kiev unless
:06:30. > :06:36.they pay enormous amounts of money. I think Europe is a very weak
:06:37. > :06:41.position. The G7 says we will have sanctions but also say we are going
:06:42. > :06:47.to do different things in our own way. I am not sure it will be a
:06:48. > :06:52.united front. I can see a direct link between what
:06:53. > :07:05.was happening in Syria and what is happening in Crimea. When putting
:07:06. > :07:09.smells wickedness... That is what was happening. Everybody could see
:07:10. > :07:20.that Albarn mattered not live up to his promises. Eventually, the saga
:07:21. > :07:24.was summed up as Syria being abandoned to its own devices. And
:07:25. > :07:38.that is what is happening now in Syria. This is a part of Ukraine has
:07:39. > :07:40.been neglected. I agree with putting that the Government was
:07:41. > :07:51.illegitimate. There will be elections in May...
:07:52. > :08:02.Of course. But it seems to me that the bullying exercise of the
:08:03. > :08:06.Russians are designed to create a kind of federated region of Eastern
:08:07. > :08:13.Ukraine. Another thing that came out when I
:08:14. > :08:16.was speaking to our correspondent in Eastern Ukraine, he said that you
:08:17. > :08:21.have no idea the resentment against the EU and NATO that many Russians
:08:22. > :08:25.have. And the feeling that people in the West are moving the boundaries
:08:26. > :08:31.and are actually under threat. Is that one of the reasons why this has
:08:32. > :08:36.been so popular for Vladimir Putin? The whole point of the end of the
:08:37. > :08:40.Cold War was an understanding that needle would not spread eastwards.
:08:41. > :08:45.That was not written down in stone. But it was understood.
:08:46. > :08:49.Unfortunately, needle started to move eastwards. That was the main
:08:50. > :08:59.reason why many people in Russia think that the Cold War is still
:09:00. > :09:05.there. `` NATO. President Obama has criticised what you put in, and
:09:06. > :09:13.every time he does, putting's popularity goes up!
:09:14. > :09:16.We will leave it there. Among the Palestinian people, the
:09:17. > :09:19.dislike ` even at times hatred ` between members of Hamas and Fatah
:09:20. > :09:23.has never been hidden. But this week a new agreement between the two
:09:24. > :09:25.factions is an attempt at creating a unified Palestinian voice not really
:09:26. > :09:28.seen since the death of Yasser Arafat. Israel's prime minister
:09:29. > :09:33.however says he will never engage in talks with any Government including
:09:34. > :09:38.Hamas. So ` where are we now? It has been said repeatedly that Israel in
:09:39. > :09:43.the past accused the Palestinians and now they are moving together.
:09:44. > :09:58.But Israel is accusing them of having him asking the Government and
:09:59. > :10:05.will not deal with them. `` Armas. This condition was never made
:10:06. > :10:17.explicit. Everybody understood that it will be a three state solution if
:10:18. > :10:37.Armas is excluded from these talks. `` Hamas. Israel could not live with
:10:38. > :10:45.the Charter of Hamas. It would not recognise previous agreements that
:10:46. > :10:50.had been signed with Fatah. It may be that the Israelis will say that
:10:51. > :10:55.it is OK if Armas is committed to the international community.
:10:56. > :11:04.However, I think this alliance has been born out of convenience.
:11:05. > :11:11.Because Armas is controlling towards the authorities. It has been broken
:11:12. > :11:21.in the past by Egypt. Armas lost its power base in Egypt.
:11:22. > :11:29.The Muslim Brotherhood. They also lost Syria. And Iran. In a
:11:30. > :11:38.way, how mass are in a weak position. This seems to be a
:11:39. > :11:53.marriage of convenience with Fatah. Do you think Armas will have to
:11:54. > :12:02.change? Hamas is saying to a bass that you read this Government and
:12:03. > :12:09.this Government is not something they are part of. It is mainly
:12:10. > :12:17.independent people who will be members of this Government. But
:12:18. > :12:22.President Mahmoud Abbas is or was attacked and hated. He went to the
:12:23. > :12:27.negotiating table without any implementation of his condition to
:12:28. > :12:29.freeze the settlement. He signed agreements that they would release
:12:30. > :12:36.is really prisoners and they never did. The two state solution
:12:37. > :12:55.collapsed completely. In the 21st century, Hamas are being asked to
:12:56. > :13:02.recognise and Israeli state. They say that the president does not
:13:03. > :13:11.represent all Palestinians. They are bringing in Gaza and going to
:13:12. > :13:21.negotiation. Either to choose us to choose Hamas. But he will be the
:13:22. > :13:26.leader of this new Government. He prevented any attacks against the
:13:27. > :13:36.Israelis against the West Bank. What can we do? I don't know.
:13:37. > :13:39.I think the rest of the world looks on this with a kind of despair.
:13:40. > :13:44.Yesterday, President Obama said that we cannot make further progress
:13:45. > :13:51.because there is no will for peace on either side. That is what we
:13:52. > :13:58.hear. Both sides in the end Professor to stand apart. Every
:13:59. > :14:02.American president comes in and says that we can fix this. The go in and
:14:03. > :14:08.think that they can fix this. But this seems in solvable because there
:14:09. > :14:13.are such an entrenched Will not to make peace on both sides. It is
:14:14. > :14:15.deeply dispiriting for everybody who stands outside and the rest of the
:14:16. > :14:35.world, which is profoundly affected by this. John Kerry, in his speech
:14:36. > :14:39.to the Congress, said that they have put obstacles in front of the peace
:14:40. > :14:42.process. On one side, missiles going into
:14:43. > :14:49.Israel and on the other, more settlements. It is beyond, mention
:14:50. > :14:53.how any country with any commitment to peace can go on creating
:14:54. > :14:57.settlements. That is interesting. I spoke to an
:14:58. > :15:03.Israeli this week and he said that the EU and the United States and
:15:04. > :15:07.Hamas, it is a terrorist organisation, as he said. He won't
:15:08. > :15:25.listen to anyone on the settlement question. There is the settlement
:15:26. > :15:28.issue. But also, other issues, like trying to get independence through
:15:29. > :15:37.the United Nations. They have released many prisoners. So it is
:15:38. > :15:42.not accurate what you have said. The Israelis and the Palestinians are
:15:43. > :16:00.willing but they are not willing to make sacrifices. America is not the
:16:01. > :16:04.best country to be the middleman. It is so distrusted in the Middle East.
:16:05. > :16:14.While with they be trusted by anyone in this particular conflict? `` why
:16:15. > :16:20.would they be trusted? Tony Blair could help. I do not think so. The
:16:21. > :16:24.point is this, America seem to be thinking if they are launching a
:16:25. > :16:28.peace process, both sides will suddenly find a will to find the
:16:29. > :16:36.solution and it never happens and nether world. When Barack Obama and
:16:37. > :16:42.John Kerry launched the initiative, everyone was asking why, when you
:16:43. > :16:48.have Libya out of control, you have Syria, this and that and it wrong,
:16:49. > :16:54.why did they do that this time? They knew nothing would come out of it.
:16:55. > :16:58.Do you agree with that? There was great scepticism about why this was
:16:59. > :17:05.being launched. Some people said it was bought domestic considerations.
:17:06. > :17:10.It has been launched by an obsessive commitment of John Kerry who took it
:17:11. > :17:16.almost as a personal crusade. At one point, it looked as if they were
:17:17. > :17:21.going somewhere. They were on the verge of deciding, or discussing,
:17:22. > :17:25.the issue of borders with Palestinians. I think this alliance
:17:26. > :17:31.will not last long because the level of hatred between the two factions
:17:32. > :17:34.is so big that, eventually, everything will collapse. We can see
:17:35. > :17:39.already cracks in the Alliance and by her mass who keeps saying we will
:17:40. > :17:47.not recognise Israel anyway. Do you think that is true? Why the
:17:48. > :17:52.division? He wanted to pursue the peace process. He was hoping it
:17:53. > :17:59.would end with independent Palestine. He has tried to do this
:18:00. > :18:05.for the last 20 years and without success. Her mass was saying, you
:18:06. > :18:22.would not reach any agreement with the Israelis. `` Hamas. The Israelis
:18:23. > :18:33.block everything. 2 million people do not have electricity or medicine.
:18:34. > :18:38.It is inhuman. Why does the international community stay silent
:18:39. > :18:41.about the torture of 2 million people? Israel is saying no. Her
:18:42. > :18:50.mass should not make a reconciliation with a bass. ``
:18:51. > :19:01.Hamas. They are not human. They are not treated as humans. Why are they
:19:02. > :19:04.imposing sanctions on them? Now that Hamas is so much we can because it
:19:05. > :19:09.no longer has the alliance with the Muslim brotherhood, they are
:19:10. > :19:13.suffering even worse hardship. Isn't this the time when Israel should
:19:14. > :19:22.say, right, uniting the two sides, the Palestinian science, this is a
:19:23. > :19:28.time we could move forward? `` the Palestinian sides. Does it really
:19:29. > :19:35.mean never? Of course not. You may be right in principle if Hamas does
:19:36. > :19:41.change its course. The people of Gaza are fed up with Hamas policy
:19:42. > :19:45.based on the issue of the armed struggle which is taking us nowhere.
:19:46. > :19:52.It is probably to do as much with the Palestinians in Gaza and
:19:53. > :20:00.Israel. Because of Israeli sanctions. Israel are imposing
:20:01. > :20:03.sanctions on them. In Britain this week, Muslim parents have been asked
:20:04. > :20:10.by the police to talk to their children about the dangers of going
:20:11. > :20:19.to Syria, even to offer humanitarian assistance. They may be sucked in to
:20:20. > :20:23.the most extreme Islamist competence. It comes as Tony Blair
:20:24. > :20:27.suggests the West should cooperate with Russia and others in common
:20:28. > :20:32.cause against the threat. What do you make of the intervention by Tony
:20:33. > :20:37.Blair? Utterly bizarre. He is the last person who should be making an
:20:38. > :20:44.intervention. If you think about his failed wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
:20:45. > :20:49.have helped to Stoke so much Islamist extremism... Something that
:20:50. > :20:53.the wheel United services Institute said very publicly this week. There
:20:54. > :20:59.was no question about that. That was from a very interesting source.
:21:00. > :21:05.Absolutely. It is accepted this has been a huge star of the Islamist
:21:06. > :21:08.cause. I suppose Tony Blair himself, an interesting character,
:21:09. > :21:16.as reached such a point where he can never, ever admit this huge mistake
:21:17. > :21:20.he has made. It is impossible. When you started these disastrous wars,
:21:21. > :21:25.you cannot say, sorry, I think I got that wrong. In a sense, like a bad
:21:26. > :21:31.gambler, you have to double the States. He is raising the stakes
:21:32. > :21:36.again. He wants a world war against Islamist. It makes no sense. On the
:21:37. > :21:42.one hand he says, we should have gone in and bought in Syria. We
:21:43. > :21:46.should have gone in there. There is an Islamist led rebellion going on.
:21:47. > :21:51.On the other hand he is saying that Russia should come in and help the
:21:52. > :21:55.anti`Islamic cause. He does not seem to understand the complexity of the
:21:56. > :22:00.world. We know from these programmes, all world relationships
:22:01. > :22:07.are very complicated. Tony Blair likes to see everything in black and
:22:08. > :22:11.white. Many years ago as the Cold War wound down, a retired Russian
:22:12. > :22:16.general in Moscow said, there will come a time when people in NATO and
:22:17. > :22:25.emotion will have to take on extreme Islam. Does any of this chime with
:22:26. > :22:30.Russia or does it seem silly? During the first Chechen war, Russian
:22:31. > :22:34.intelligence was telling Western intelligence there were
:22:35. > :22:39.international element involved in the Chechen resistance. This was a
:22:40. > :22:44.network building already. Everybody took it without the concern they
:22:45. > :22:48.should. Then Al`Qaeda suddenly sprang out. The Russians knew about
:22:49. > :22:53.it long before it was accepted in the West as a big threat. The
:22:54. > :22:58.problem with Tony Blair is he may say something that makes sense but
:22:59. > :23:04.because he says it, nobody takes it seriously, or dislikes it at once.
:23:05. > :23:09.The problem is that the Islamic terrorists will have access to
:23:10. > :23:13.nuclear weapons and materials. Look at Ukraine! There are several
:23:14. > :23:18.nuclear power stations which are barely protected at the moment.
:23:19. > :23:23.There is Chernobyl. They will get access to these materials and do a
:23:24. > :23:29.dirty bomb or something. This is a serious threat at the moment. This
:23:30. > :23:35.is the month of Islam phobia in Britain. First we had Michael Gove
:23:36. > :23:39.actually launching a campaign against Muslim schools and the
:23:40. > :23:42.people in this country. Secondly, David Cameron saying that
:23:43. > :23:54.Christianity is the fate of this country and 50% of this country
:23:55. > :23:58.believe in it. Now he Tony Blair is saying Islamic fundamentalism is a
:23:59. > :24:03.threat to peace in the world. Who encouraged Islamic fundamentalism?
:24:04. > :24:08.It is Tony Blair, George Bush and the Americans. Tony Blair is siding
:24:09. > :24:16.with dictators. He is saying, even sign a deal with President Assad if
:24:17. > :24:22.he stays in power. What about the countries that bought against
:24:23. > :24:34.fundamentalism? Syria was a secular state. They are saying, no, it is
:24:35. > :24:40.Islam fundamentalism which is the enemy or the threat to state
:24:41. > :24:49.ability. `` stability. How can we believe him? Tony Blair said, the
:24:50. > :24:59.get Crimea and eastern Ukraine. `` forget. He also said, forget
:25:00. > :25:04.President Assad and let him remain in power. He brings pragmatism to a
:25:05. > :25:11.new level. Maybe he is not the right one to say something like that.
:25:12. > :25:14.Isn't that the point? President Assad is not going anywhere and
:25:15. > :25:18.Crimea is not going to come a partner of Ukraine any time soon. In
:25:19. > :25:26.terms of realities on the ground, he has got that right. I do not think
:25:27. > :25:30.Tony Blair is a pragmatist. He sees things in ideological terms. He has
:25:31. > :25:35.now decided that Islamist is a movement is the great enemy. It has
:25:36. > :25:39.great perils. All Western countries feel bad. They feel the potential of
:25:40. > :25:47.young people within their own midst who are tempted by a global movement
:25:48. > :25:51.that attracts them. Young teenagers who are perhaps uncertain of their
:25:52. > :25:56.own identities, second generation. They can be a real threat.
:25:57. > :26:01.Nevertheless, it is this oversimplification of Tony Blair,
:26:02. > :26:07.thinking everything can be resolved. Somehow thinking he is the man to do
:26:08. > :26:16.it as well. That is extraordinary. This man hates Muslims. He wants a
:26:17. > :26:18.war against Islam. We will have to leave it there. We are back next
:26:19. > :26:50.week at the same time. Goodbye. Good morning. The weather is not
:26:51. > :26:55.looking too promising for the weekend. We will be dominated by a
:26:56. > :27:00.slow`moving area of low pressure. You can see this: Which is wrapped
:27:01. > :27:05.around the low pressure. This cloud is producing some rain. Following on
:27:06. > :27:07.from that, there will