:00:00. > :00:00.Cathedral to mark the occasion. I will be back at the top of the
:00:00. > :00:22.hour. Now on BBC News it's Date LINE LONDON.
:00:23. > :00:27.Hello and welcome to Dateline London. How the past bedevils the
:00:28. > :00:31.present ` in Ukraine its tortuous history with Russia leads to even
:00:32. > :00:35.more violence. And in Northern Ireland, the murder
:00:36. > :00:38.of a mother of ten children in 1972 casts a shadow over the continuing
:00:39. > :00:41.search for a lasting peace. Plus, will the European elections be
:00:42. > :00:45.a continent`wide opportunity for protest votes?
:00:46. > :00:48.My guests today are Richard Sakwa of the University of Kent, who's
:00:49. > :00:50.writing a book about Ukraine, Agnes Poirier of Marianne, Brian
:00:51. > :00:56.O'Connell, who is an Irish writer and broadcaster, and Steve Richards
:00:57. > :00:58.of The Independent. Ukraine first, and the violence
:00:59. > :01:03.continues amid the Kiev government's insistence it is cracking down on
:01:04. > :01:05.terrorists. In the east of the country, pro`Russian groups seize
:01:06. > :01:09.control of government buildings and resist Kiev's forces as best they
:01:10. > :01:18.can. Are we stumbling towards a much wider and potentially catastrophic
:01:19. > :01:24.conflict? What is your analysis of the situation? It is exceptionally
:01:25. > :01:29.dangerous. I think we need to be careful about the language we use
:01:30. > :01:32.because we are talking about pro`Russian separatists. In many
:01:33. > :01:40.ways, they have got a different concept of what being Ukraine means.
:01:41. > :01:44.There is probably Russian involvement but on its own that
:01:45. > :01:49.would not be enough. There is genuine anger and concern. We need
:01:50. > :01:54.to think about how we can broaden the consensus and include every part
:01:55. > :02:01.of the country into an inclusive constitutional process. Everybody
:02:02. > :02:04.saw the violence and some of it was pretty horrendous, but I was amazed
:02:05. > :02:12.by the mass of people out on the streets. That plays into your
:02:13. > :02:16.thoughts that there is certainly a genuine feeling of resentment at
:02:17. > :02:23.some of the things going on in Kiev. Absolutely. They are very much
:02:24. > :02:26.Ukrainian, but they have got a very different vision of Ukraine. They
:02:27. > :02:35.fear is that their idea is being hijacked. The provisional government
:02:36. > :02:41.is overwhelmingly composed of people from the West. Do you think that the
:02:42. > :02:47.elections later this month will help solve things or make things worse?
:02:48. > :02:57.At the moment it is touch and go. If the violence continues, but on the
:02:58. > :03:02.other hand, the candidates don't really have a solution. The leading
:03:03. > :03:08.candidate is an oligarch of the old mould. The old style politics of
:03:09. > :03:11.what is called a democracy of oligarchs which has dominated for so
:03:12. > :03:18.long will not be broken and that is why there is so much concern in the
:03:19. > :03:23.East and the South. When Richard talks about it, the more
:03:24. > :03:25.sophisticated analysis, it is not really borne out in a lot of
:03:26. > :03:30.journalistic coverage because it tends to be you are either
:03:31. > :03:39.pro`Russian or pro`West. It is much more, located. It is. It is not just
:03:40. > :03:43.that people in eastern Ukraine are pro`Russian and everybody else looks
:03:44. > :03:47.towards the West. If you look at the background to it, the European
:03:48. > :03:54.Union's terms of association that frightened Russia and said, we are
:03:55. > :03:59.getting closer and closer to the European Union and so on, Angela
:04:00. > :04:02.Merkel and Barack Obama have switched the trigger at which the
:04:03. > :04:07.next layer of sanctions are going to take place from invasion back to, if
:04:08. > :04:12.we can't hold a successful presidential election. They have
:04:13. > :04:17.brought that back. But what it seems to do is highlight the inability of
:04:18. > :04:23.the European Union or the West in general to know exactly how to deal
:04:24. > :04:26.with this. If you listen to Angela Merkel and Barack Obama this week,
:04:27. > :04:30.though one thought that kept coming up in my head is that these are two
:04:31. > :04:34.people who can't even agree on whether to spy on each other. In
:04:35. > :04:42.terms of a common front against Russia, it is going to be difficult
:04:43. > :04:47.to impose. Absolutely. I am fascinated by the language and the
:04:48. > :04:51.semantics. You are listening to news bulletins and you have to listen
:04:52. > :04:58.very carefully. We do not know who they are talking about. You hear
:04:59. > :05:04.about pro Kiev forces. Now that Ukraine is just Kiev. We hear about
:05:05. > :05:10.rebels but who are you talking about? Russian mercenaries,
:05:11. > :05:18.Ukrainian forces? And terrorists, the word which is used repeatedly.
:05:19. > :05:22.Freedom fighters or terrorists? And then of course, there is a risk of
:05:23. > :05:26.losing the plot if you are just looking at what is going on in a
:05:27. > :05:35.certain city in Ukraine. The burly and wall fell a quarter of a century
:05:36. > :05:40.ago. `` early in. There was a very good piece in the New York Times
:05:41. > :05:50.about that. For decades there was this formidable is `` force. We
:05:51. > :05:56.perhaps treated Russia as a defeated power but on the other hand Europe
:05:57. > :06:03.was never going to look towards Russia, it was going to keep the
:06:04. > :06:08.Atlantic alliances. And Eastern European countries like Poland, when
:06:09. > :06:15.looking towards Europe, there was no way we were going to ignore Eastern
:06:16. > :06:23.European countries. Ukraine, who wants to be part... Even in Russia
:06:24. > :06:30.itself, there has always been the Western looking people in Russia.
:06:31. > :06:39.But Vladimir Putin has this ambition of having a counter European or Euro
:06:40. > :06:47.Asian communities. And there is talk of neo` Bolshevism in that semantics
:06:48. > :06:52.and perhaps the murkier it is, the better for Vladimir Putin, because
:06:53. > :06:57.we don't know what is going on. How do you want Angela Merkel and Barack
:06:58. > :07:02.Obama to agree? You could say that Vladimir Putin is not playing a
:07:03. > :07:05.great hand but with great skill. In terms of the economy and the way
:07:06. > :07:12.Russia is organised, he is playing very skilfully. He is, although, if
:07:13. > :07:17.you think about it, when you said it is hard to imagine Germany and the
:07:18. > :07:24.United States working together, even if there was not that kind of layer
:07:25. > :07:30.of tension because of the spy story, I don't see what they agreed
:07:31. > :07:37.to do in this situation. We step back and say, is Vladimir Putin
:07:38. > :07:43.paying a blinder `` isn't he playing a blinder. But I am not sure what
:07:44. > :07:48.they do. I can't think of a route through this in the short`term in
:07:49. > :07:53.terms of intervening. There was a diplomat on the BBC this morning who
:07:54. > :07:57.said that all the are dire but the least worse is to sustain some kind
:07:58. > :08:02.of dialogue with Vladimir Putin and I think that is right. But I don't
:08:03. > :08:07.think there is any straightforward solution, even if Barack Obama and
:08:08. > :08:13.Angela Merkel and EU representatives all get on like a house on fire. Is
:08:14. > :08:20.it done more to restrain Kiev from taking the action they have done in
:08:21. > :08:29.the last few days? An outbreak of common sense. How do you get there?
:08:30. > :08:33.As always, you have got to think how we got here in the first place.
:08:34. > :08:41.Since the end of the Cold War, 25 years ago, we have failed to build
:08:42. > :08:46.an inclusive peace order after the end of the Cold War which could
:08:47. > :08:55.sustain and bring Russia, above all. That was the big challenge facing
:08:56. > :08:59.the European Union. In other words, multiple centres including Turkey
:09:00. > :09:04.and Russia. It has been a catastrophic failure. The
:09:05. > :09:08.association over the last year or so was the European Union trying to
:09:09. > :09:14.play geopolitics and it is not do that very well. It has been a huge
:09:15. > :09:20.failure of leadership. We need to do what Russia has been calling for
:09:21. > :09:24.since the Eastern partnership, which is trilateral talks, a larger piece
:09:25. > :09:28.for the European Union, a whole continent to establish a new system
:09:29. > :09:32.that peace Congress, which did not take place at the end of the Cold
:09:33. > :09:40.War. That dialogue has got to include the Ukrainians and
:09:41. > :09:43.suchlike, within a larger umbrella. Even these so`called separatists, it
:09:44. > :09:52.is a misnomer because they want to stay. But they want a different
:09:53. > :09:56.vision of what Ukraine means. We will come back to that in a moment.
:09:57. > :09:58.The arrest of the leader of Sinn Fein, Gerry Adams, in connection
:09:59. > :10:02.with the investigation into the murder of Jean McConville has raised
:10:03. > :10:05.all kinds of ghosts from the past. Mrs McConville was a widow and
:10:06. > :10:09.mother of ten murdered by the IRA in 1972. Sinn Fein said the arrest had
:10:10. > :10:12.a political dimension, coming ahead of the European and local elections
:10:13. > :10:15.in Ireland. Should historic crimes continue to be investigated or, in
:10:16. > :10:25.the interests of the present and future, should we ever be prepared
:10:26. > :10:30.to forget past atrocities? In terms of atrocities, this is serious. It
:10:31. > :10:35.is strange that we have just been talking about failures to build
:10:36. > :10:40.inclusive structures. In the case of Northern Ireland, it is the
:10:41. > :10:47.inability to deal with the past as we move forward through this piece,
:10:48. > :10:50.political process. There is no mechanism there. People have talked
:10:51. > :10:57.about amnesties, reconciliation commissions, but there is nothing
:10:58. > :11:02.there. When this pops out of the blue, there is no official mechanism
:11:03. > :11:08.for with it so you end up with the ridiculous position where you have
:11:09. > :11:11.the Deputy First Minister of the power`sharing administration saying
:11:12. > :11:17.that there is a dark side to the police force but he is the guy who
:11:18. > :11:21.signed up to this. We went through the reform of the Royal Ulster
:11:22. > :11:25.Constabulary, the previous policing arrangements in Northern Ireland.
:11:26. > :11:31.New policing arrangements were put in place. Now the police service in
:11:32. > :11:37.Northern Ireland is a devolved power. Martin McGuinness is
:11:38. > :11:44.partially responsible for that policing service. Is he now saying
:11:45. > :11:50.that he does not trust it? David Cameron was very clear that there is
:11:51. > :11:55.no politics involved in this. On the other hand, this is a murder that
:11:56. > :11:59.took place 40 or so years ago and suddenly, a couple of weeks before
:12:00. > :12:04.European local elections in Ireland where Sinn Fein have very big
:12:05. > :12:09.ambitions in the Republic of Ireland as well, suddenly their leader is
:12:10. > :12:13.arrested. I have no idea whether it is connected with the current
:12:14. > :12:15.political campaign but to answer your original deep, profound
:12:16. > :12:21.question about whether the past should overwhelm the present ``
:12:22. > :12:27.present and the future, it is very clear to me that it should not. The
:12:28. > :12:35.whole way that police `` peace process involved is that quite
:12:36. > :12:39.blatant wiping of past misdeeds, I am haunted by the image of what
:12:40. > :12:45.happened to this mother. I can't get it out of my mind. It is appalling.
:12:46. > :12:51.However, all kinds of appalling things went on and John Major, Tony
:12:52. > :12:56.Blair, everyone involved in this peace process, decided to park some
:12:57. > :12:59.of this. There is no institutional mechanism to deal with this but I
:13:00. > :13:04.can tell you, politically, the way to deal with it is you do have two
:13:05. > :13:10.ignore some of these past things or else the future is going to be
:13:11. > :13:17.wrecked. You can't have it both ways. If you ignore Republican Mr
:13:18. > :13:23.Minas and crimes in the past and Jean McConville incident, you also
:13:24. > :13:30.have two ignore what the British army did, bloody Sunday, the killing
:13:31. > :13:33.of civilians. You have to be evenhanded about this and several
:13:34. > :13:38.former Northern Ireland secretaries, Peter Hain, and all these people
:13:39. > :13:43.have said this. You can't have an amnesty for one site without the
:13:44. > :13:47.other. Peter Hain, I talked to him this week, he said he's not in
:13:48. > :13:53.favour of an amnesty, but he says we have to have a mechanism. There has
:13:54. > :14:00.to be some mechanism to reconcile people to the past. How would you do
:14:01. > :14:02.that is a very congregated question. Please is about making peace with
:14:03. > :14:11.the enemy but also making peace within yourself. It is an internal
:14:12. > :14:19.community case rather than the occupation or the army. It is
:14:20. > :14:26.political, obviously, but it is also psychological and it is not going to
:14:27. > :14:31.go away. People are still afraid. As long as the fear is there, it is
:14:32. > :14:36.something that they can't just brushed under the carpet. They have
:14:37. > :14:41.got to deal with it, but it is really for the community to do it.
:14:42. > :14:47.And also, I would not be so worried about Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein is a
:14:48. > :14:53.formidable, ruthless machine. They realise they have two deal with it.
:14:54. > :14:58.They are trying to control the agenda, although Gerry Adams did not
:14:59. > :15:04.know he would be interrogated for such a long time. But they can gain
:15:05. > :15:13.a lot from it, the European elections. How do we get to eat
:15:14. > :15:21.Greece process to overcome the past `` a peace process? It is out of
:15:22. > :15:26.these things that new conflicts are born. This is very much what has
:15:27. > :15:31.been happening, for example, in Lithuania, within Poland itself,
:15:32. > :15:35.they simply keep saying, we cannot establish civilised relationships
:15:36. > :15:43.with Russia. They keep looking at the past. The past is dreadful. My
:15:44. > :15:47.father was nearly involved. Your family is Polish. The question of
:15:48. > :15:53.victimhood in Northern Ireland or in the Israel`Palestine conflict, you
:15:54. > :15:58.have got people on the Prost inside, the Catholic side, and people all
:15:59. > :16:02.over Britain who have seen the Birmingham bombings. People have got
:16:03. > :16:08.a sense of victimhood. My question is whether it would be adequate for
:16:09. > :16:11.those who committed offences to be told there is no amnesty but you
:16:12. > :16:16.have to plead guilty and tell us what you have done, you have to give
:16:17. > :16:23.the families that degree of closure. Would anyone except that? Indeed.
:16:24. > :16:26.They have to have this sense of closure and a sense justice has been
:16:27. > :16:29.done. You can in the build peace without justice. But the definition
:16:30. > :16:33.of this justice also has to include the concept of forgiveness and
:16:34. > :16:36.understanding the historical situation because clearly the
:16:37. > :16:40.relationship between Ireland and Britain has been a complex one for
:16:41. > :16:46.so many years. As you say, multiple victimhoods but the thing is to `
:16:47. > :16:50.the logic of victimhood, that's what we have failed to do in some degree
:16:51. > :16:55.in Northern Ireland and more Broadley in Europe. As you know from
:16:56. > :17:00.going to Belfast now, compared to 15 years ago say, it's like a different
:17:01. > :17:04.planet. It's not just the Queen visiting Ireland and the Irish
:17:05. > :17:10.President coming here but things have changed superficially, at
:17:11. > :17:12.least, completely. Things have changed phenomenally in Northern
:17:13. > :17:17.Ireland as you know from your time there as well as a correspondent.
:17:18. > :17:27.People still need to be able to come to terms with it, to see whatever
:17:28. > :17:31.kind of, to use the awful cliche closure, and you talk about people
:17:32. > :17:35.coming to court and maybe not serving prison sentences and so on,
:17:36. > :17:40.we had some of that around the time of the Good Friday Agreement. When
:17:41. > :17:45.we came to Peter Hain's Bill, if you remember for the on the runs, people
:17:46. > :17:49.still out there that police may or may not wanted for questioning, it
:17:50. > :17:55.had to be withdrawn from parliament because they couldn't get agreement
:17:56. > :17:58.on who and what and when and where. The Sinn Fein machine that you are
:17:59. > :18:03.talking about, south of the border in the Republic of Ireland, is
:18:04. > :18:06.growing immensely but it's not ` most of the people, if you look at
:18:07. > :18:10.the candidates, for example, who are standing for election to the
:18:11. > :18:16.European Parliament in the Republic of Ireland, most weren't around when
:18:17. > :18:19.Jean McConville was abducted and what Sinn Fein is Garnering votes
:18:20. > :18:22.for there is the way in which they're dealing with austerity,
:18:23. > :18:27.economic issues and recession, not Northern Ireland at all. That brings
:18:28. > :18:30.us on to our final section. The European Union was invented to
:18:31. > :18:34.heal the wounds of the past and ensure there would never again be
:18:35. > :18:37.another major European war. Beyond that brave ideal ` all across the
:18:38. > :18:40.continent there is discontent over economic problems, austerity, and
:18:41. > :18:43.the EU bureaucracy. Will that be reflected in the European elections
:18:44. > :18:55.this month by a wave of protest votes ` including a big victory in
:18:56. > :18:59.Britain for UKIP? People need to go and vote, that's
:19:00. > :19:04.the solution because otherwise people who intend to vote for their
:19:05. > :19:10.protest parties are going to win the argument and that would be
:19:11. > :19:16.catastrophic. If you look at the turnout, the expected turnout it's
:19:17. > :19:19.so low. It's terrible. Can I justice play the obvious card, which is
:19:20. > :19:23.people over Britain are thinking why should I bother? Some people will be
:19:24. > :19:28.really interested and will vote for which ever party, but a lot of
:19:29. > :19:39.people think it's absolutely nothing to do with me. Well, there was this
:19:40. > :19:45.great absent ` during the Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage debate, they never
:19:46. > :19:50.talked about Europe. We have been in peace 70 years. It's a miracle, we
:19:51. > :19:57.have a short`term memory, let's have the last 400 years, when did this
:19:58. > :20:01.last happen? And why do a lot of countries, I mean the enlargement
:20:02. > :20:08.was not imposed, people wanted to be part of the union.
:20:09. > :20:13.And I think that's for this same reason. So, you know, we are
:20:14. > :20:18.Europeans and we should all be pro`Europeans because my generation,
:20:19. > :20:24.your generation have lived in peace. Then you have this 27 countries
:20:25. > :20:28.working together. It's extraordinary. Of course there are
:20:29. > :20:35.plenty of things, for instance, a lot of re reform, I think a few
:20:36. > :20:43.parties want the President of the Commission to be elected at the ` or
:20:44. > :20:47.at least elected, not appointed. There are many democratic reforms we
:20:48. > :20:51.could do and we should do. Then we all need to be together rather than
:20:52. > :20:57.just leave the table. Your scepticism is not merely a British
:20:58. > :21:02.phenomenon as you know, do you see a big win for UKIP and other
:21:03. > :21:07.effectively protest parties? I assume the polls are right and UKIP
:21:08. > :21:10.in Britain will get more votes than any of the other parties which will
:21:11. > :21:13.be an extraordinary moment and the Conservatives will probably come
:21:14. > :21:17.third which will trigger a panic in the Conservative Party. That will be
:21:18. > :21:23.the immediate consequence, I suspect. But obviously there are
:21:24. > :21:28.deeper issues, as well. The level of discontent in Britain and elsewhere
:21:29. > :21:34.is such that it's a gift for parties that are not seen as part of the
:21:35. > :21:41.political establishment. It's all irrationale, frankly. The reason why
:21:42. > :21:45.there is totally understandable insecurity in 2008 there was a
:21:46. > :21:56.financial crash which had very little to do with the European Union
:21:57. > :22:03.at all. I don't even hear Nigel Farage blaming it. It feeds into the
:22:04. > :22:08.political volatility around Europe. UKIP will be the beneficiary. The
:22:09. > :22:12.question is for how long? The credibility of political parties
:22:13. > :22:16.gives them durability. Actually when you look at their policies, when you
:22:17. > :22:20.look at some of the individuals who are quite prominent beyond their
:22:21. > :22:25.leader, the question of credibility comes very quickly to the top.
:22:26. > :22:29.Richard, you talked about, I suppose, Europe is unfinished
:22:30. > :22:33.business historically. We haven't really reached a settlement after 25
:22:34. > :22:44.years after the Cold War. Do you see that this discontent, the fact that
:22:45. > :22:47.there is Euroscept sichl in every `` Euroscepticism in every country?
:22:48. > :22:53.What's been missing is the vision thing. The European Union has
:22:54. > :22:58.developed by policy spillover, but what is needed is to revamp it, to
:22:59. > :23:04.have a sense of what I would call a continental vision that Europe can
:23:05. > :23:11.take control of its own test knee `` destiny. But what we have done is
:23:12. > :23:20.lacked that vision to establish it and instead of which we have had two
:23:21. > :23:28.things. On the one side, members have used that to continue old
:23:29. > :23:31.historical rivalries, using the European Union for its opposite,
:23:32. > :23:36.it's become a revenge project. The second thing is that you have this
:23:37. > :23:42.overlay. The European Union yes, a fantastic idea of spreading forward
:23:43. > :23:50.good governance and against corruption and excellent public
:23:51. > :23:55.goods. However, NATO also perhaps a fine thing but the two are separate.
:23:56. > :24:01.What's happened now is they've become overlain and mismatched and
:24:02. > :24:07.people are using the European Union ` and as far as Moscow, don't forget
:24:08. > :24:11.Putin came to power in 2,000 as the most pro`European leader Russia has
:24:12. > :24:17.ever had and we can trace the process of ` well, of
:24:18. > :24:21.disillusionment and step by step, the Munich conference in 2,000 to
:24:22. > :24:28.make him now say there is nothing to lose, you don't respect me, you
:24:29. > :24:32.exclude us. Yes. NATO's borders have moved and that's not the same as you
:24:33. > :24:38.made clear. But it's a source of resentment. And a sense that the
:24:39. > :24:42.European Union is the foregrounder of NATO enlargement. Whether it's
:24:43. > :24:49.justified is not the issue, it's perceived to be. Therefore it is so.
:24:50. > :24:53.In terms of a bigger picture, you mentioned Sinn Fein, they will do
:24:54. > :25:01.well in these elections, won't they? Probably. The problem is that if you
:25:02. > :25:06.look overall at France, at Finland, Britain and UKIP, you end up with a
:25:07. > :25:14.large chunk of the new European Parliament after the end of this
:25:15. > :25:21.month with a big self`hating block and you can't actually move forward
:25:22. > :25:25.while you have this because to Steve's point, if you scratch below
:25:26. > :25:30.the surface with UKIP they're a party of protest. They don't have
:25:31. > :25:34.the policies. When you see Nigel Farage debating with Nick Clegg all
:25:35. > :25:38.you are debating about is more Europe, less Europe and immigration.
:25:39. > :25:43.You are not actually debating about how people get a mortgage, what are
:25:44. > :25:47.you going to do with the financials services sector, the basic stuff
:25:48. > :25:52.that people want to hear about. The longer this goes on, the larger that
:25:53. > :25:55.self`hating block becomes in the European Parliament, the less
:25:56. > :25:59.effective Europe can be in everyday life, so turnout will probably go
:26:00. > :26:04.down. I wish we had more time. That's it for this week. We are back
:26:05. > :26:05.next week at the same time. You can comment on the programme at Twitter.
:26:06. > :26:38.Thank you for watching and goodbye. Hello. Mixed fortunes through this
:26:39. > :26:41.bank holiday weekend. There will be cloud and rain at times across
:26:42. > :26:45.northern parts of the UK, however for some of us it will stay dry and
:26:46. > :26:50.fine with plenty of sunshine. There is sunshine to be out there through
:26:51. > :26:54.today. A good day for a walk in the woods. The best of the sunshine so
:26:55. > :26:56.far has been through the central swathe of England, parts of eastern
:26:57. > :26:58.Scotland too. This is