:00:00. > :00:07.from Somali Islamists. There's a full bulletin of news at
:00:08. > :00:24.the top of the hour. Now on BBC News Dateline London with Gavin Esler.
:00:25. > :00:27.Hello and welcome to Dateline London. Our world view this week
:00:28. > :00:30.concerns three democracies in interesting times, from the Indian
:00:31. > :00:36.elections and the Narendra Modi landslide to the European elections
:00:37. > :00:39.still to come. But we want to begin with the mining disaster in Turkey
:00:40. > :00:42.and what it tells us about one of the world's most important emerging
:00:43. > :00:46.economies, a Moslem country where democracy seemed to be a possible
:00:47. > :00:50.model for the Middle East. My guests today are Ashis Ray of Ray Media.
:00:51. > :00:55.Safak Timur of the BBC Turkish Service. Mina al Oraibi of Asharq al
:00:56. > :01:00.Awsat. And Janet Daley of the Sunday Telegraph.
:01:01. > :01:03.Turkey first. The terrible mining disaster in western Turkey comes
:01:04. > :01:06.after years of great successes and achievements often directed by Prime
:01:07. > :01:08.Minister Erdogan. Despite largely removing the army from politics and
:01:09. > :01:11.receiving a considerable endorsement in recent local elections Turkey
:01:12. > :01:13.remains politically very divided and the Erdogan administration has been
:01:14. > :01:16.accused of corruption, incompetence and ` in the case of the mining
:01:17. > :01:22.disaster ` extraordinary callousness. Are these just growing
:01:23. > :01:25.pains for Turkish democracy or a significant setback for a country
:01:26. > :01:37.which would like to be seen as a model for others? Firstly, the
:01:38. > :01:46.anger. Why are people so all angry at the government and Prime Minister
:01:47. > :01:52.Erdogan? The statements from the officials from beginning to end was
:01:53. > :01:59.not giving information which was satisfactory for the families who
:02:00. > :02:05.lost their loved ones. This is one of the first things but has made
:02:06. > :02:09.people furious. As they lost their trust due to the lack of
:02:10. > :02:17.information, rumours were all around. Now the death toll is almost
:02:18. > :02:26.300, but nobody believes this. Those in the town believe it is 400.
:02:27. > :02:35.Everybody is asking, where are these 100 miners? You look back over the
:02:36. > :02:40.last year, rather than all the successes that Turkey has gone
:02:41. > :02:47.through that you mentioned in your introduction, we are now asking
:02:48. > :02:54.questions about oppression against dissident people and the lack of
:02:55. > :02:59.press freedom. We are turning inside ourselves. That said, he clearly has
:03:00. > :03:15.a constituency of ordinary people behind him. Yes. All the events over
:03:16. > :03:22.the last year is evidence for people to be angry at Erdogan. For his
:03:23. > :03:33.supporters, this is adding to their support. There is a video of the
:03:34. > :03:48.Prime Minister hitting somebody in this Turkish mining town. The person
:03:49. > :03:53.who was hit says it was an accident. The henchman who has seen kicking a
:03:54. > :03:58.demonstrator, that was a purposeful act. I don't think that can be
:03:59. > :04:04.described as an accident. The moral of the story is there is more to
:04:05. > :04:10.democracy and elections. Some of the things that Erdogan unquestionably
:04:11. > :04:17.did say was so ill judged and callous, almost cynical.
:04:18. > :04:25.Comparing Turkey in the 20th century to 19th`century England. It was an
:04:26. > :04:32.appalling thing for an elected leader to say. There was contempt
:04:33. > :04:40.for the needs and anxieties for ordinary people. That his death to
:04:41. > :04:43.democracy. It is a complete failure to understand what the system is
:04:44. > :04:47.supposed to be about. There was a time where various Arab countries
:04:48. > :04:58.were looking at what was happening in Turkey and removing the Army from
:04:59. > :05:08.politics was seen to be a positive step. There is an issue with the
:05:09. > :05:13.Muslim Brotherhood. It was seen as a success that you can throw off the
:05:14. > :05:18.cloak of Islamist am so to speak and become a strong political party that
:05:19. > :05:21.has solid economic policies. That was one of the strengths of Erdogan
:05:22. > :05:31.and his government. Having said that, there are economic trouble is
:05:32. > :05:37.coming to Turkey. 9% growth ten years ago and now it is about 3%
:05:38. > :05:41.growth. These issues are going to start hurting Erdogan. When the
:05:42. > :05:45.comeback to the Arab world, after the opening up, Visa restrictions
:05:46. > :05:51.were lifted so people could come to Turkey and this country was seen as
:05:52. > :05:57.able to hold onto traditions while becoming moderate and. That is
:05:58. > :06:06.becoming less and less evident for Turkey because of issues like press
:06:07. > :06:10.restrictions and statements from the leader saying that some deaths
:06:11. > :06:18.happen and it is ordinarily, which was very bizarre. But I think
:06:19. > :06:27.Erdogan thinks it is OK and he can still keep wishing for its. There
:06:28. > :06:33.will be elections in August. One important point that emerges out of
:06:34. > :06:35.this is that the public fury that we are noticing at the moment could be
:06:36. > :06:42.linked with the slow economic growth. That said, there are two
:06:43. > :06:48.aspects which strike me. I do expect trade unionists to protest and go on
:06:49. > :06:58.strike. By their very definition, they are from the left. That has
:06:59. > :07:04.happened. Has been a one`day strike. Yes. But it is interesting to note
:07:05. > :07:12.that there was a very popular Muslim cleric and he has severely
:07:13. > :07:20.criticised the Prime Minister. From the United States. I know, but he
:07:21. > :07:28.has a considerable following in Turkey not merely among the public
:07:29. > :07:35.but also amongst the bureaucracy. In the end, we will see what happens
:07:36. > :07:40.between now and August when Erdogan has an ambition to run for
:07:41. > :07:46.president, it seems. And whether this fury is going to be short lived
:07:47. > :07:53.or if you will be posted. How do you see the next few months going? There
:07:54. > :07:59.have been many things that people have been protesting about, for
:08:00. > :08:07.example building a shopping centre in the centre of Istanbul, so how do
:08:08. > :08:15.use either happening given that the country seems to be so divided in
:08:16. > :08:21.terms of support for Erdogan? Everybody is asking the same
:08:22. > :08:25.question to journalists. We are following the events, but we really
:08:26. > :08:30.don't know. Everything changes so quickly. This mining disaster came
:08:31. > :08:37.out of the blue because it is an accident, but we know that there are
:08:38. > :08:43.some negligence is which lead to that accident. It officially had a
:08:44. > :08:49.clean bill of health a few months ago. Yes, but there are questions
:08:50. > :08:53.about that report and critics against that. Everything happened so
:08:54. > :08:59.quickly in Turkey. Over the last year, everything is changing one by
:09:00. > :09:04.one. We can't keep up with the speed of the events. Probably Erdogan will
:09:05. > :09:08.run for a presidential elections because he is openly making his
:09:09. > :09:14.passion for this. We estimate they will get a strong vote, but we don't
:09:15. > :09:17.know what will happen. Let's leave it there.
:09:18. > :09:20.The world's biggest democracy ` India ` has been voting in one of
:09:21. > :09:23.the most extraordinary elections imaginable. More than 800 million
:09:24. > :09:26.people eligible to go to the polls. But what will the results mean for a
:09:27. > :09:29.very diverse society and for the Congress party which has dominated
:09:30. > :09:47.Indian politics since independence, but not any more? Why did he win? Is
:09:48. > :09:55.it to do with economic factors? There are two reasons why he has
:09:56. > :10:06.one. The ruling dispensation, the Coalition Government, and become
:10:07. > :10:19.really unpopular. Inflation was beyond control. Went food prices go
:10:20. > :10:32.up, the poor and the middle`class reaction. Wasn't really a factor.
:10:33. > :10:38.Employment generation was a factor. The combination of factors and also
:10:39. > :10:43.the fact that the Congress party and Congress led government were seen to
:10:44. > :10:50.be utterly corrupt. That caused the problem. That was the negative
:10:51. > :10:56.anti`incumbency factor, if you like. On the other side, Narendra Modii
:10:57. > :11:05.was promising the moon, promising a miracle. Populist politics combined
:11:06. > :11:11.with the unpopularity of the Congress has resulted in his
:11:12. > :11:16.victory. He has been an international pariah since some of
:11:17. > :11:29.the events in Gujurat in 2002 and has been seen ads very divisive in
:11:30. > :11:35.terms of this complicated society of religions and different populations
:11:36. > :11:41.in India. He is suspected of abetting riots which killed Muslims,
:11:42. > :11:47.but the jury is still out on that. His home minister at the time, his
:11:48. > :11:53.right`hand man, has been charged of murder and of creating false
:11:54. > :11:58.encounters. He will doubtless they be facing trial very soon. Whether
:11:59. > :12:04.that ultimately reaches Narendra Modii, we will have to wait and see.
:12:05. > :12:11.The Indian judicial system is rather slow. But sometimes it is
:12:12. > :12:25.exceedingly short. What do you make of this? Britain didn't want to have
:12:26. > :12:28.anything to do with him? The good news story perhaps is that India
:12:29. > :12:36.seems to have reached a new kind of maturity with its own democratic
:12:37. > :12:43.process, in that the family who has ruled since the post`colonial period
:12:44. > :12:50.has gone. They have reached the point where they will elect someone
:12:51. > :12:56.other than that particular dynasty, so that is healthy. The danger for
:12:57. > :13:15.the global picture is that he might inflame the difficulties with
:13:16. > :13:26.Pakistan, if the Muslim community does not feel included. Viz are two
:13:27. > :13:35.nuclear powers who could potentially be confrontational. `` these are.
:13:36. > :13:40.There is a long`standing issue of mass poverty in India. There was no
:13:41. > :13:48.real attempt to address mass poverty. Poverty has gone down in
:13:49. > :13:56.real terms, but it still remains there. Poverty of a kind that you
:13:57. > :14:03.would think was impossible in a democratic society.
:14:04. > :14:10.The point about Pakistan, if I may just add to what she said, an
:14:11. > :14:16.element of confrontation took place between India and Pakistan the last
:14:17. > :14:22.time there was a government of this kind. They went to war in Kashmir.
:14:23. > :14:31.There was tension. People are talking about more assertive Indian
:14:32. > :14:38.foreign policy is under Narendra Modii. But there is a paradigms
:14:39. > :14:41.shift in the politics of India. India has largely, since
:14:42. > :14:49.independence, been a left of centre, secular population. This has
:14:50. > :15:04.swung to a right wing Hindu nationalist politics. The optimistic
:15:05. > :15:12.that would be all these people going to the polls and Narendra Modi now
:15:13. > :15:28.speaks for all of India. This will be the challenge? I believe that
:15:29. > :15:38.changing the political dynasty, the fact that the complacency came into
:15:39. > :15:41.play, with a clear mandate, he does not even need a coalition
:15:42. > :15:47.government, he will lead with strength and when you hear Narendra
:15:48. > :15:51.Modi speak after the results came in, he said it is clear victory.
:15:52. > :15:57.That is good because he is allowed to make tough decisions but it's
:15:58. > :16:13.concerning FA believes he alone speaks for India. `` if he believes.
:16:14. > :16:17.Leaders have a responsibility showing that they care for everybody
:16:18. > :16:23.and the fact that he has not shown remorse for what happened raises a
:16:24. > :16:26.lot of questions. The great thing about having a majority is you can
:16:27. > :16:33.do things but there was no one else to blame if things go wrong. How do
:16:34. > :16:40.you see it? All these things remind me of my country though they are two
:16:41. > :16:50.separate countries. Getting your support from the elections is fine
:16:51. > :16:57.but if you feel you can take the strength from the ballot you should
:16:58. > :17:01.stop and think what is going on. The Indian Premier this there is no
:17:02. > :17:24.promising miracles which reminds me of the Turkish by Minister `` Prime
:17:25. > :17:33.Minister. Voters all across the European Union can go to the polls
:17:34. > :17:37.to vote in the elections. Many will stay at home so what can these
:17:38. > :17:43.elections tell us about the state of Europe and perhaps the state of
:17:44. > :17:48.Great Britain? A lot of people who do not stay at home will be voting
:17:49. > :17:54.for UKIP in this country and some and pleasant right`wing policies in
:17:55. > :18:01.Europe. That is a reflection of the tremendous the satisfaction, and
:18:02. > :18:06.absolute boat of no confidence in those institutions. This is bizarre
:18:07. > :18:12.and ironic when you think that the whole point of this European Union
:18:13. > :18:23.project was anti`nationalistic. It was an attempt to create a
:18:24. > :18:26.fellowship and in the European community partnership that would
:18:27. > :18:32.transcend boundaries. I understand it an attempt to undermine true
:18:33. > :18:37.democracy and to say we cannot trust the people any longer to govern
:18:38. > :18:43.themselves. Hitler was elected and Mussolini rose through tremendous
:18:44. > :18:47.popularity in his own country. We now have two take back the
:18:48. > :18:51.diplomatic oligarchy and cannot allow the mob to gain that kind of
:18:52. > :19:03.ascendancy again. The result is that they have produced another mob. As
:19:04. > :19:06.xenophobic mob. When people are dissatisfied and feel powerless they
:19:07. > :19:12.almost always victimise the outsider. The always blame
:19:13. > :19:18.foreigners. This is what they have managed bridges. That does not
:19:19. > :19:28.present a very successful picture of the European institutions. The
:19:29. > :19:39.right`wing parties will be the main beneficiaries? The irony that UKIP
:19:40. > :19:42.is against the European Union will be hard to fathom in that they will
:19:43. > :19:48.probably benefit the most from the European elections. Turnout has was
:19:49. > :19:59.being quite low except in Brussels and Luxembourg where you see high
:20:00. > :20:03.turnouts. They see the impact. Here we almost feel like it is something
:20:04. > :20:09.very distant and does bureaucratic. It will not make a difference. The
:20:10. > :20:24.British are not alone in that. You will scepticism in Europe is quite
:20:25. > :20:39.significant. `` Euro`skepticism. Those who do go right to vote are
:20:40. > :20:43.those within and gender `` with an agenda against the European Union.
:20:44. > :20:59.This does say a lot about the state of politics and protest votes. Some
:21:00. > :21:07.people are disregarding current events. You can behave how you like
:21:08. > :21:11.because you do not feel you are having to be a member of the
:21:12. > :21:20.European Union. On the grassroots level it is kind of forgotten. If we
:21:21. > :21:27.were in the European Union, I do not think people would be bothered to go
:21:28. > :21:36.and vote. Look at what has happened in Cyprus. I think India would like
:21:37. > :21:42.to see at cohesive European Union. India has been negotiating a free
:21:43. > :21:47.trade agreement with the European Union which I think will happen in
:21:48. > :21:54.the not too distant future. The elections this time seemed to be, in
:21:55. > :21:58.several countries, more of a referendum than elections to the
:21:59. > :22:01.European union Parliament. Is that because people do not have a clue
:22:02. > :22:10.what the European Parliament as our what it does? This remarkable
:22:11. > :22:16.Parliament where there are no opposition benches and no Treasury
:22:17. > :22:22.benches. They have groups of various persuasions. What we're likely to
:22:23. > :22:27.see is a composition in the new European Parliament which gives
:22:28. > :22:33.slightly change the future direction of the European Union because I
:22:34. > :22:42.think that a lot of sceptics could become members of the European
:22:43. > :22:45.Parliament. They could become a very significant amount of people who do
:22:46. > :22:51.not think the institution should exist. In Britain, I have noticed
:22:52. > :22:59.that when you ask a person in an opinion poll who they will vote for
:23:00. > :23:07.in the European elections, it seems that Nigel Farage and his UKIP Barty
:23:08. > :23:10.is second in the opinion polls. If you ask the same person who they
:23:11. > :23:16.will vote for in the local elections, which will take place in
:23:17. > :23:27.the same day, UKIP afterguard are fourth. That has serious
:23:28. > :23:36.consequences for your life. The European Parliament is irrelevant to
:23:37. > :23:39.most ripples lives. Apart from being anti`European, there's not much
:23:40. > :23:47.known about UKIP and what they do for local councils. Why other
:23:48. > :23:51.conservatives so scared of them? They see that activists are going
:23:52. > :23:58.away and people do not turn up to Conservative Party conferences. They
:23:59. > :24:03.know that the basic point that UKIP is racing has serious consequences
:24:04. > :24:11.for the Conservatives. If the Conservatives are not seem to be
:24:12. > :24:18.sufficiently sceptical about Europe, and to renegotiate our role in
:24:19. > :24:34.significant towns, that will damage them in the general election
:24:35. > :24:40.``significant terms. I do not think that David Cameron's idea of
:24:41. > :24:43.renegotiating is very realistic. We will have to see what happens with
:24:44. > :24:50.the actual referendum if it does happen. David Cameron has put a
:24:51. > :24:57.referendum as part of his election campaign and that says a lot. But we
:24:58. > :25:05.apply that this kind of promise before from political leaders and
:25:06. > :25:11.they have not come through with it. I suspect that the popularity of
:25:12. > :25:16.Nigel Farage may go down because he has had his racist moment. I think
:25:17. > :25:24.the attempts of many other supporters who have sent many
:25:25. > :25:28.extreme and unpleasant things in racist terms, if you went through
:25:29. > :25:34.comments by every member of the Conservative Party and Labour Party
:25:35. > :25:38.you could probably find almost as many racist comments. There seems to
:25:39. > :25:44.be a systematic attempt to smear him which enhances his popularity. The
:25:45. > :25:53.political establishment trying to smear the outsider. That is that for
:25:54. > :26:21.this week. You can comment on the programme on Twitter, @gavinesler.
:26:22. > :26:28.It may well be the middle of spring but weather conditions are very much
:26:29. > :26:34.like summer across most of the country. There is some rain forecast
:26:35. > :26:38.for the extreme north`west but elsewhere some decent sunny spells
:26:39. > :26:39.expected and temperatures will respond. A