:00:30. > :00:37.programme. The United States is reluctantly sucked into the conflict
:00:38. > :00:54.in Iraqi. Can Iraq be saved? How much of a thread is a failing Iraq
:00:55. > :00:58.to the region and the rest of us? Consider the irony: An American
:00:59. > :01:05.President who became President because he opposed the US going to
:01:06. > :01:10.war in Iraq is now sending several hundred military advisers to prop up
:01:11. > :01:21.a Baghdad government of which she has very little confidence. Can
:01:22. > :01:34.Barack be saved? Can the West develop a coherent strategy to
:01:35. > :01:44.counter extremist groups? Iraqi and Syria, not necessarily questioning
:01:45. > :01:47.their future, we are facing a situation where the entire region
:01:48. > :01:57.will be realigned one way or another. It is a very serious
:01:58. > :02:02.problem. It started three or four years ago now and may continue for
:02:03. > :02:12.another ten or 15 years, maybe. What we are facing at this moment is the
:02:13. > :02:18.face of a long process of adjustment and readjustment, politically,
:02:19. > :02:22.demographically. Over the many years since independence when the British
:02:23. > :02:33.and French left the region, they arranged the area as we know now
:02:34. > :02:41.demographically. It has not been working. What we have seen now, we
:02:42. > :02:46.could have seen in the 1960s or the 70s, and they're not in a Cold War,
:02:47. > :02:53.for example. The Cold War between the Giants. They shared the world
:02:54. > :03:01.according to their interests. And they wanted stable borders. Stable
:03:02. > :03:07.borders, hence the Soviet formally supported dictators in the region.
:03:08. > :03:20.The West also supported their dictators. They recognise that
:03:21. > :03:28.Noriega was a bad leader. But that was the attitude towards this region
:03:29. > :03:33.itself. That unfortunately helped to stop the region from developing in
:03:34. > :03:39.the right direction, which is democracy, debate, Parliament,
:03:40. > :03:44.elections. It is happening now. What is happening now is really a delayed
:03:45. > :03:48.action which should have happened about 30 or 40 years ago. Do you
:03:49. > :03:52.agree with that big picture thought which is that we could be seeing the
:03:53. > :03:57.redrawing of boundaries, the complete realignment and it may take
:03:58. > :04:03.ten or 15 years? Or possibly longer than that. Yeah, I think in the
:04:04. > :04:08.longer term, the current system situation is not sustainable. In the
:04:09. > :04:12.shorter term, it seems to me that unlikely alliances are going to
:04:13. > :04:17.arise to try and prevent... In that region there is no interest in
:04:18. > :04:22.having Iraq collapse into this Civil War. We are going to get rather like
:04:23. > :04:28.September the 11th, briefly unlikely alliances forming, not lasting very
:04:29. > :04:34.long, in the short`term. The most optimistic route of dealing with
:04:35. > :04:37.this, it seems, will be bizarre alliances like the United States
:04:38. > :04:41.working with Iran, and so on. But that is a short`term reaction which
:04:42. > :04:48.will not in the end transcend the longer term trends that you have
:04:49. > :04:53.outlined. It is interesting. The United States in working with Iran,
:04:54. > :04:56.even for short`term interests, with Iran working with the Syrian
:04:57. > :05:02.regime, we have the bizarre situation of written and the United
:05:03. > :05:04.States that were thinking about bombing President Assad, they are
:05:05. > :05:11.now taking on the threat that he said were a threat. That is true.
:05:12. > :05:17.Yes, and that is why the planned military attack on Syria was show
:05:18. > :05:20.ill thought through. They are saying that there are some moderates that
:05:21. > :05:28.we will target but not the others. How? Yeah, of the many multilayered
:05:29. > :05:31.ironies, that is one of them. I agree. The only three countries in
:05:32. > :05:35.that region that have been countries, that have kept their own
:05:36. > :05:39.national borders since World War I have been Iran, Egypt and Turkey.
:05:40. > :05:45.The rest of them were created following World War I. Looking at it
:05:46. > :05:52.from a different perspective, what is happening in Iraq now is a crisis
:05:53. > :05:56.within Islam itself, and secondly, it is a crisis of the political
:05:57. > :06:03.process, a vision of a political process. When you look at the
:06:04. > :06:10.religion aspect of it, only last month the Pope, the Catholic church
:06:11. > :06:14.and the Orthodox Church, had a meeting. The first meeting in 50
:06:15. > :06:21.years about a schism that had happened 1000 years ago. But this
:06:22. > :06:25.time, the grand ayatollahs was the quietest. He should not involve
:06:26. > :06:29.himself in politics. Instead of coming and calling for dialogue
:06:30. > :06:34.between all these clerics, what are they good for? They have to speak to
:06:35. > :06:38.each other and find a way forward for the sake of Islam, number one.
:06:39. > :06:44.At the same time, when you look at the policies within Iraq itself, it
:06:45. > :06:49.is the same kind of a vision of a political process that you see in
:06:50. > :06:57.Iran. It is divisive, sectarian, exclusive. The political process has
:06:58. > :07:01.been the domain of the late `` elite, mainly men, women are not
:07:02. > :07:06.allowed, for Iraq it has been sectarian, tribal, in Iran, it is
:07:07. > :07:14.the central government against minorities, against women, so this
:07:15. > :07:20.is what you see right now is the baby of this political process that
:07:21. > :07:25.has been tainted `` debris. What you get is what you see in Iraq and you
:07:26. > :07:28.get in Syria, now as far as the United States and Iran are
:07:29. > :07:35.concerned, let's not forget, the IR GC has been active, the
:07:36. > :07:40.Revolutionary guards, they have been active in Iraq for many years. They
:07:41. > :07:44.have been in communication with the Americans. It is not as if suddenly
:07:45. > :07:48.they were nothing and now they have started. Sorry to interrupt that
:07:49. > :07:53.there has also been the other track about nuclear weapons and so on.
:07:54. > :08:04.There have been lots of contacts. Lots of contacts. Absolutely. So how
:08:05. > :08:08.will this involve `` evolve forward, it remains to be seen because within
:08:09. > :08:15.Iran itself, there is a lot of division within that elite
:08:16. > :08:19.political... Governing the country. It is a well`known fact that the
:08:20. > :08:27.American policy in the Middle East itself, they keep lines open with
:08:28. > :08:32.anybody, they never cut off anybody. We know that during the Cyril
:08:33. > :08:46.Whittaker Civil War in Lebanon, they were talking to Philip Abbey...
:08:47. > :08:54.Whatever they say publicly, it was all going on. Secretly, the lines
:08:55. > :09:00.remain open. There is a competition within secret factions in Iran, who
:09:01. > :09:08.will negotiate with America. In terms of Iran, no one wants Iraq to
:09:09. > :09:13.break up. Actually there are people who would not mind. The way they
:09:14. > :09:18.will look at it, they look at it, OK, there is a Sunni bit, a Shi'ite
:09:19. > :09:25.bit, a Kurdish bid, in fact, they think that the D Shi'ite bit would
:09:26. > :09:30.be much closer to Iran. But this is the most dangerous thing that can
:09:31. > :09:37.happen in the long run for the region. All the provinces on the
:09:38. > :09:43.boundaries of Iran, whether you look at the boundary with Afghanistan,
:09:44. > :09:48.they are all up in arms against the central government. Because of the
:09:49. > :09:53.divisive policy. Where does America coming here? The administration is
:09:54. > :10:01.perplexed and extremely upset and when you hear people talking about
:10:02. > :10:04.considering options, already we are eight or nine days into this
:10:05. > :10:07.crisis, they do not know what to do and they are looking for some help
:10:08. > :10:15.and Alliance and common ground with Iran. But I think there is pressure
:10:16. > :10:19.on Barack Obama to come up with some quick military fix and I think he is
:10:20. > :10:23.well briefed enough to know that there is no way a few drone attacks
:10:24. > :10:35.or a well targeted the size air attack is going to turn back this
:10:36. > :10:41.tide. We are all seeing this grand dissolution which amend this
:10:42. > :10:45.possibility for violence against civilians, as they go at each other.
:10:46. > :10:50.The Americans, I think, are trying to figure out what they can do and
:10:51. > :10:54.they do not have an answer. In Britain, there is a big debate about
:10:55. > :10:57.whether the country is becoming more insular and turning its back on
:10:58. > :11:09.intervention, however ill`defined that term is. That is not the case.
:11:10. > :11:12.There is no obvious option. At primaries to questions in the House
:11:13. > :11:14.of Commons, you had Ed Miliband and David Cameron agreeing that there is
:11:15. > :11:17.the chilly nothing they can do, frankly. `` Prime Minister 's
:11:18. > :11:32.questions. It is that there are not any obvious
:11:33. > :11:40.options. Even Tony Blair when he lists... Not doing anything in Syria
:11:41. > :11:43.was problematic... But even he implicitly says that the military
:11:44. > :12:00.intervention in Iraq clearly was not the right... You think 1964. He was
:12:01. > :12:06.very explicit, Barack Obama, this is not going to be mission creep. But
:12:07. > :12:15.as he well knows, it is easier to say that. That was the tragedy of
:12:16. > :12:19.Lyndon Johnson and there are certainly echoes of that. I do not
:12:20. > :12:24.leave there are people in the Pentagon or people at state or
:12:25. > :12:27.people at the CIA telling the president with just a little bit
:12:28. > :12:34.more, you can slow this down, turn it back. I think as soon as Syria
:12:35. > :12:38.started to become so complex, we have all rocked for some sort of
:12:39. > :12:43.solution and it is virtually impossible `` looked. And now that
:12:44. > :12:46.it has spilled over into this, I think the president is even more
:12:47. > :12:58.aware that there is nothing simple they can do. What about the other
:12:59. > :13:03.players? Saudi Arabia? Qatar? The Gulf Arabs, if you like, their main
:13:04. > :13:08.concern really is Iraq more than anything else and they know very
:13:09. > :13:18.well that the Americans cannot be trusted. We are talking here about
:13:19. > :13:23.interests, not about emotion or moral issues or whatever. It is the
:13:24. > :13:28.interests of the Americans and the West in general to sit and watch,
:13:29. > :13:35.sit and see what is going on. Things are shaping up. A splitting up part
:13:36. > :13:45.of Syria, a kind of corridor from the East, 50 kilometres wide in some
:13:46. > :13:53.areas. That is being created. Yes, we are talking about ISIS as the
:13:54. > :14:00.tool of the changing things but please are not permanently viable.
:14:01. > :14:06.Definitely not. What you are talking about ten or 15,000 people, three or
:14:07. > :14:10.4000 of them are foreigners. They cannot establish a state can run a
:14:11. > :14:16.state. Though they have a lot of cash, a lot of military weapons and
:14:17. > :14:23.all that. Apart from that, things are shaping up. You have that
:14:24. > :14:27.corridor, then in Iran, you have above the south of Iraq towards
:14:28. > :14:31.Baghdad, they cannot really go further than that. It is not their
:14:32. > :14:38.environment, religiously, economically, culturally. That is
:14:39. > :14:44.turkeys interests. We already have Kurdistan in the North. Some people
:14:45. > :14:50.are saying we are more less independent now. Exactly. The Turks
:14:51. > :15:00.seem to have changed their attitude towards the Kurdish question as
:15:01. > :15:06.well. They were not allowed use their own language and now they can,
:15:07. > :15:13.officially. There is a lot of trade going on. Interests overtake any
:15:14. > :15:18.moralistic things. We are talking about creeping mission. Let's not
:15:19. > :15:25.forget Iran has more to lose in this kind of a creeping mission in the
:15:26. > :15:37.sense that it already has the brigade also operating in Iraq.
:15:38. > :15:40.Already organising and co`ordinated activities and the other attacks
:15:41. > :15:45.against ISIS but that the same time, ISIS in that sense I do not agree
:15:46. > :15:50.with you as far as that they are like fighters, let's not forget,
:15:51. > :15:53.only this week they published for the second year running, they
:15:54. > :16:00.published their annual report of how many assassinations bit by bit and
:16:01. > :16:08.since 2013, they have been running a province in Syria and there is an
:16:09. > :16:15.Atlantic monthly piece about the running of this province and it is
:16:16. > :16:20.that they've got police, hospitals and they have taken over oil fields,
:16:21. > :16:24.these oilfields will help themselves their oil on the black market, so it
:16:25. > :16:31.is not only a terrorist organisation. They want something
:16:32. > :16:39.organise, a superstate. The more they commit their forces there, it
:16:40. > :16:46.is going to... Creating a monster out of ISIS, currently is suitable
:16:47. > :16:54.to a lot of parties in the conflict. ISIS as an organisation cannot
:16:55. > :16:59.logically speaking prosper unless it works within its own environment.
:17:00. > :17:05.Now they are active in these areas. These areas where they have been
:17:06. > :17:08.deprived, and a prosecution, neglected by central governments,
:17:09. > :17:18.whether in Damascus or in Baghdad, so these people there are desperate
:17:19. > :17:26.for living for education, forced ability, for work. If ISIS provides
:17:27. > :17:31.this, people will come to ISIS, but logically speaking in the long`term,
:17:32. > :17:45.ISIS cannot run these `` this part of the region and less homogeneous
:17:46. > :17:56.local authorities spring up. How do you see that? We have seen a young
:17:57. > :18:00.jihadist from Cardiff and is recruiting people. We got a problem
:18:01. > :18:10.here at home because his parents saying he was radicalised in this
:18:11. > :18:18.country. As happened with those July bombings in 2007, it was the younger
:18:19. > :18:22.generation. A couple of weeks ago, you probably discussed on the
:18:23. > :18:30.programme, the controversy about the scores in Birmingham. Well, you
:18:31. > :18:37.cannot keep track on a daily basis, so I don't know how you deal with
:18:38. > :18:41.the problem within the UK of this or how you measure the degree to which
:18:42. > :18:45.it has happened. But clearly, there is an issue and it is with people on
:18:46. > :18:55.here who are relatively young and educated here and they have got an
:18:56. > :19:11.issue. And we have no concept of crimes. `` of thought crimes. No, or
:19:12. > :19:21.how you tangibly keep track on people thinking these thoughts. I
:19:22. > :19:26.started talking to angry young Muslim teenagers just after the UK
:19:27. > :19:31.and US went into Afghanistan and I was surprised at the depth of the
:19:32. > :19:40.anger because to my mind, the attack on Afghanistan was justified, to a
:19:41. > :19:47.degree. But the anger but that generated has reverberated and grown
:19:48. > :19:56.and this polarisation I see as one of the enlarged and's triumphs. ``
:19:57. > :20:12.one of Osama bin lard and's triumphs. The threat is real. Your
:20:13. > :20:19.question is extremely important. The parties and media have not dealt
:20:20. > :20:26.with this issue down to its roots, somehow. Why a local MP in
:20:27. > :20:33.Birmingham or even east London or West London doesn't go to that
:20:34. > :20:39.constituency and talk to people, extend their discussion to the Asian
:20:40. > :20:45.community and minorities in this area, these are neglected. Do you
:20:46. > :20:53.think there is a generational divide as well? Young Muslims are out of
:20:54. > :21:01.touch, even with their own parents. In this case, the father was not
:21:02. > :21:10.born here. He was an immigrant. But his son, who was born here, has
:21:11. > :21:15.become a terrorist. So you cannot talk about two generations because
:21:16. > :21:20.both are different. The father was born outside, carrying with him his
:21:21. > :21:35.own culture from Yemen, but the son was born here. Actually, one of the
:21:36. > :21:40.problems is a refugee from the Islamic republic that executed
:21:41. > :21:44.thousands. When I come here and see suddenly, sharia courts are being
:21:45. > :21:54.set up by the establishment, what does that say? You are enabling
:21:55. > :21:59.these thoughts. What is sharia? It is based on only half of the
:22:00. > :22:05.society. As a woman, I do not enjoy the same rights as any other man
:22:06. > :22:08.just because I am a woman. When you have got that mentality becoming
:22:09. > :22:16.institutionalised here, obviously, you are enabling something else.
:22:17. > :22:23.That is a political problem that could be addressed. They could
:22:24. > :22:33.download it. They have got control over the low. `` outlaw it. The
:22:34. > :22:37.question is whether this has been triggered by Afghanistan and more so
:22:38. > :22:46.by Iraq or whether that was just a kind of excuse and there were deeper
:22:47. > :22:54.issues that would surface anyway. I suspect it was to do with the
:22:55. > :22:59.invasion. If it wasn't for Iraq or Afghanistan, this wouldn't have
:23:00. > :23:02.happened. I was going to ask you about that because we have heard
:23:03. > :23:07.uncork it is here, some of the people wanted to blow up nightclubs
:23:08. > :23:13.because they believed people shouldn't go out and drink and
:23:14. > :23:24.didn't believe women should go out and wear short skirts. Some of the
:23:25. > :23:28.acts of terror proceed 2001. But this was the trigger. When you're
:23:29. > :23:39.talking about the radicalisation of youth in this country who feel
:23:40. > :23:50.neglected and angry, there was a profound shift in the rhetoric, the
:23:51. > :24:00.funding, the support, training, and people listened. How many did he
:24:01. > :24:06.manage to inspire, at the end of the day? We are not really talking about
:24:07. > :24:14.a well rooted political movement in the region. These are a collection
:24:15. > :24:24.of really young people who have troubles of their own in their own
:24:25. > :24:30.backyard, their own societies. Do you see them as misfits?
:24:31. > :24:36.Absolutely. I have seen one or two who have come to talk to me about
:24:37. > :24:39.these issues, but through discussion with them, they have changed their
:24:40. > :24:55.mind. These people need people to talk to. No such discussions are
:24:56. > :25:05.taking place. You can look in America, for example, where people
:25:06. > :25:10.go and murder in high schools. It's the same problem but different
:25:11. > :25:23.terminology. This is something that I think society itself has two sit
:25:24. > :25:31.down and take a look at: How can we take away extremism? It's not just
:25:32. > :25:35.an Islamic religious problem. We are back next week at the same time. You
:25:36. > :26:04.can comment on the programme on Twitter.
:26:05. > :26:10.The sun is climbing to its highest point in the sky. It is the summer
:26:11. > :26:15.solstice, the longest day of the year and the weather is set fair
:26:16. > :26:21.with most of us seeing lengthy spells of sunshine. Overall, the
:26:22. > :26:22.weekend looks dry. Most of us will see some sunshine