:00:00. > :00:08.A full roundup of the news at the top of the hour. Before that,
:00:09. > :00:28.dateline Scotland, with Gavin Esler in Glasgow.
:00:29. > :00:35.Welcome to Glasgow. A special edition of Dateline Scotland. One
:00:36. > :00:39.month before the Scottish people go to the polls to vote for or against
:00:40. > :00:43.independence, which, if it happens would be the biggest constitutional
:00:44. > :00:48.change for the native kingdom in 300 years. If it does not happen, it
:00:49. > :00:53.will still lead to a rethink of how the UK works. My guests are Tom
:00:54. > :00:58.Gordon of the Sunday Herald. His newspaper supports a Yes vote.
:00:59. > :01:09.Kenneth McKenna `` Kevin McKenna says he is leaning towards a Yes
:01:10. > :01:17.vote. Lindsay McIntosh is a Scottish classical editor of The Times.
:01:18. > :01:21.Welcome. Let's begin by setting the scene for the campaign for those
:01:22. > :01:27.viewers watching around the world. Give us a flavour of where you think
:01:28. > :01:33.we are. Mercifully, we are in the closing stages. Everyone is
:01:34. > :01:37.exhausted. The broad picture is that they side that wants to oppose
:01:38. > :01:41.independence is still in the lead. The lead has narrowed somewhat. The
:01:42. > :01:49.no side is still ahead. For Alex Salmond, the Yes campaign has a bit
:01:50. > :01:53.of ground to make up. Catherine, do you agree broadly with that
:01:54. > :01:59.assessment? Dazzle the No campaign have to do much except sit tight? Or
:02:00. > :02:04.should they offer a more positive vision, because that has been one of
:02:05. > :02:10.the criticisms of Better Together? Polling starts in two weeks time.
:02:11. > :02:18.The next two to four weeks will be critical. I do not think the No
:02:19. > :02:23.campaign or are no thanks campaign can be complacent at all. There is a
:02:24. > :02:28.lot to play for. There are a lot of undecided voters who are still
:02:29. > :02:32.listening to the arguments. I think the No campaign must convince them
:02:33. > :02:39.that a Yes vote is a risky vote. I disagree that they should be more
:02:40. > :02:42.positive. I think any question they ask is construed as negative. And I
:02:43. > :02:48.think they are asking legitimate questions. Lindsay? I think
:02:49. > :02:54.Catherine is correct that they do not need to be more positive in
:02:55. > :02:59.order to win. They seem to have a 20 point lead in some polls. They seem
:03:00. > :03:04.on the front foot here. The problem is that if they do win and the
:03:05. > :03:10.campaign is perceived to be negative we're left with a Scotland which
:03:11. > :03:15.questions why it voted no and has perhaps not the self`confidence in
:03:16. > :03:20.itself but we would like to see after making such a historical
:03:21. > :03:24.decision. I have enjoyed the campaign. I can understand what Tom
:03:25. > :03:30.is saying. He has been on the ground. I have never seen Scotland
:03:31. > :03:37.more energised. I have never seen such a positive political dynamic in
:03:38. > :03:41.the country. A lot of that has palpably been generated by the Yes
:03:42. > :03:47.campaign. Because they are campaigning for something on
:03:48. > :03:52.something they have been brought up on. It is quite evangelical in its
:03:53. > :03:56.fervour. I have sympathy for the No campaign because it is difficult to
:03:57. > :04:00.be positive about the negative. I understand what Catherine is saying
:04:01. > :04:05.that it is not a negative campaign. But I think at its essence, it must
:04:06. > :04:11.be negative because they are having to back down. They are having to
:04:12. > :04:15.play with a straight bat, to use a cricket analogy. Hopefully, the
:04:16. > :04:19.Nationalists do not come out with a big game changer. The No campaign
:04:20. > :04:25.will be looking to play things straight, steady and not try to...
:04:26. > :04:35.But don't they have to do, as Catherine suggested, two point
:04:36. > :04:40.something out that these are the risks. That is all they have to do?
:04:41. > :04:44.Of course there will be risks. It is a certain amount of naivete in the
:04:45. > :04:49.hearts of some Nationalists when they say they are expecting the rest
:04:50. > :04:52.of the country, who perhaps do not share their evangelical fervour,
:04:53. > :04:57.that it is OK, everything will be fine. Trust us. But I do not think
:04:58. > :05:01.they should get hung up on seeing there will be risks with an emerging
:05:02. > :05:07.country after the hundred years any union. Of course there will be
:05:08. > :05:14.risks. I think Kevin is right. There will be quite a lot of Scottish
:05:15. > :05:17.people who would like to vote yes. What the no thanks campaign has to
:05:18. > :05:21.say to them is that we understand that, we are patriotic, but if you
:05:22. > :05:28.vote yes, you must realise that you may be poor, there is much
:05:29. > :05:32.uncertainty, some vital questions, particularly about currency, have
:05:33. > :05:36.not been answered and I think quite a lot of these people will not vote
:05:37. > :05:42.yes because they will think it is too big a gamble. What you think of
:05:43. > :05:46.the tone of the campaign? Kevin said in one sense it has been a great
:05:47. > :05:49.national conversation. There's no doubt about that. These are
:05:50. > :05:55.important questions and people engaging in politics, which is a
:05:56. > :05:59.good thing. On the other hand, I know from friends there have been
:06:00. > :06:05.divisions within families, workplaces, sometimes it can become
:06:06. > :06:11.mean. There are people who were born Nationalists and will remain that
:06:12. > :06:17.way whatever happens. I think they are operating... There are almost
:06:18. > :06:20.two arguments. They believe we are Nationalists and should have
:06:21. > :06:24.independence. The other side are seeing that we care about Scotland
:06:25. > :06:29.but you must answer these questions. I think it is like apples and pears.
:06:30. > :06:35.They are parallel conversations rather than an exchange. I have
:06:36. > :06:39.friends who will vote yes and they actually say they do not care if
:06:40. > :06:45.Scotland will be poor or not. There are a lot of people out there who do
:06:46. > :06:53.care about whether they will be poorer. As we said before, it's the
:06:54. > :07:01.economy, stupid. I can understand that at the coal face, 20 years, 30
:07:02. > :07:05.years... People have been thinking about it for a long time. I am
:07:06. > :07:11.perplexed at the idea people are undecided. It is not because they
:07:12. > :07:16.haven't been paying attention. They have been thinking about it on a
:07:17. > :07:20.theoretical level. It has never been crystallised or become an imminent
:07:21. > :07:24.possibility until now. People have started to think about it in a
:07:25. > :07:27.different way because it is a real prospect. I agree with Devon that it
:07:28. > :07:33.has been a generally uplifting and positive campaign. `` Kevin.
:07:34. > :07:42.Politicians love this because people are glad to see them when they knock
:07:43. > :07:46.on doors. Disengagement from politics has receded and people are
:07:47. > :07:50.now actively engaging. The one exception is social media, which has
:07:51. > :07:54.been anti`social. There has been a lot of abuse on that. But,
:07:55. > :08:00.generally, town hall meetings have revived. 300 people turning up on a
:08:01. > :08:06.wet Tuesday night to hear the debate. A good thing for Scotland. I
:08:07. > :08:10.think it has been a good thing for Scotland. We need to have these
:08:11. > :08:13.conversations. Where I disagree with Kevin and possibly Tom is that the
:08:14. > :08:19.Yes campaign has been overwhelmingly positive. Particularly now, as they
:08:20. > :08:24.enter the final straight, the is a huge amount of negativity. We are
:08:25. > :08:27.starting to see messages like "you must vote yes because if you bought
:08:28. > :08:34.now the Scottish budget will be slashed. We will be frozen out by
:08:35. > :08:37.Westminster". What about the NHS, the police service, education? All
:08:38. > :08:42.of those things will be cut if you do not vote yes, according to them.
:08:43. > :08:47.And it is becoming an inherently negative campaign, ironically for
:08:48. > :08:52.one which wants people to vote yes. You can see Alec Salmond has a lot
:08:53. > :08:55.to do. He is behind in the polls. People generally do not think he did
:08:56. > :09:00.so well in the last debate. He has one month to turn things around. Can
:09:01. > :09:03.he do it? He has been a great campaigner in the past. We have
:09:04. > :09:13.underestimated them at our peril in the past. At the Holyrood election,
:09:14. > :09:19.which brought us to this level, around about four to five week in
:09:20. > :09:22.the polls, the SNP were between 15 and 20 points behind. The internal
:09:23. > :09:28.polling was telling them more optimistic messages. To the extent
:09:29. > :09:33.that Alex Salmond himself was saying to senior advisers, I do not trust
:09:34. > :09:36.our own figures. There was such a dissonance there. And then we all
:09:37. > :09:42.know what happened. The SNP won an overall majority, which Holyrood was
:09:43. > :09:48.set up to stop any single party gaining an overall majority. We're
:09:49. > :09:53.at the same stage year. The Nationalists I have spoken to are
:09:54. > :10:00.still quietly confident because of the pattern of their polling over
:10:01. > :10:04.the last seven years. But, yes, I think he must still pool a big
:10:05. > :10:09.rabbit out of the hat. He need something big and important or
:10:10. > :10:16.somebody who has wanted to vote no to change their mind and say they
:10:17. > :10:20.are voting yes. He need and optimistic figure to say good things
:10:21. > :10:23.about an independent Scotland. I hear what Lindsey is saying about
:10:24. > :10:29.the NHS and the negativity of the yes message, but it cannot really be
:10:30. > :10:33.perceived as negative to say that the NHS in an independent Scotland
:10:34. > :10:38.would fare better and be more fit for purpose than it is currently in
:10:39. > :10:44.England. Looking back, the whole question of the pound and whether
:10:45. > :10:49.you can keep it, has he mishandled that? It is very difficult,
:10:50. > :10:57.presumably, to sell independence if you cannot be sure that you will
:10:58. > :11:03.have an independent currency? I can see where he is coming from because
:11:04. > :11:05.both sides had agreed at the Edinburgh agreement, which was going
:11:06. > :11:13.to frame not just the terms of debate but also what would happen
:11:14. > :11:17.afterwards, both sides agreed and signed up to act in the best
:11:18. > :11:23.interests of the entire UK, whether a yes or vote book title No vote
:11:24. > :11:28.prevailed. If you're cynical, you may say we have one and a half years
:11:29. > :11:33.following a potential Yes vote were many things will come out in the
:11:34. > :11:36.wash. It will be a lot of horse trading. We must make clear to
:11:37. > :11:40.people who do not follow this closely, if there is a Yes vote,
:11:41. > :11:49.they will not be a split the next day. It will take a long time and be
:11:50. > :11:52.a process of disengagement. I simply cannot believe that Alistair
:11:53. > :11:58.Darling, whom I know is a patriotically, committed Scott, Andy
:11:59. > :12:01.Scott indeed that many of us are proud of, I cannot see the following
:12:02. > :12:10.a Yes vote that Alistair Darling will set his face against a currency
:12:11. > :12:16.union. He might not, but whatever the rest of the UK Government... One
:12:17. > :12:21.of the things we must consider that whatever Scotland does is not in a
:12:22. > :12:28.bubble. There are other people who will relate to what happens. I think
:12:29. > :12:32.you are quite right. Alex Salmond wants a currency union, which will
:12:33. > :12:37.mean that for the first time in 300 years, Scotland's fiscal policy will
:12:38. > :12:42.be determined by a foreign country. They will tell us in Scotland how
:12:43. > :12:47.much we can spend on health and education. What is independent about
:12:48. > :12:51.that? I fail to see. I think it will be very hard for Alex Salmond to say
:12:52. > :13:03.this is best for Scotland and what is more it is best for you too.
:13:04. > :13:08.There are many companies that the Chancellor of the striker will tell
:13:09. > :13:13.will be facing extra tariffs to move goods across the border to a country
:13:14. > :13:20.which is currently England's biggest second trading partner after
:13:21. > :13:25.America. Yes, but you do not know what the answer is. For a currency
:13:26. > :13:28.union must be negotiation and nobody knows what the outcome of that
:13:29. > :13:32.negotiation will be. And if it will not be in the interests of the rest
:13:33. > :13:38.of the United Kingdom, it will not happen. But I think Lindsay is also
:13:39. > :13:42.correct. If you look back over the last three months, Alistair Darling
:13:43. > :13:52.is saying today what he said three months ago. He is asking the same
:13:53. > :13:56.questions. Alex Salmond has moved from seeing it will be a confident
:13:57. > :14:01.victory to saying we will not have an NHS in Scotland if it becomes
:14:02. > :14:09.independent. The NHS in Scotland is completely independent at the
:14:10. > :14:15.moment. It is completely devolved. I do not know if Alex Salmond said
:14:16. > :14:25.that! Well, the noise in the media, is that the NHS in Scotland is
:14:26. > :14:32.completely... That is an interesting area. How far is Scotland already
:14:33. > :14:36.independent? The Better Together Campaign says you can have the best
:14:37. > :14:44.of both worlds. That is the core of their argument. For anybody coming
:14:45. > :14:50.year from outside, there has been law, schools, would most people not
:14:51. > :14:55.have voted for more devolution had that been on the ticket two and that
:14:56. > :15:01.is what they may get if it is a No vote? That does seem to be the most
:15:02. > :15:09.popular option in the polls. There is still the issue that the Scottish
:15:10. > :15:12.Parliament does not raise tax. It relies on financing from South of
:15:13. > :15:19.the border. It can never really put on long trousers until it gets tax
:15:20. > :15:24.raising powers. If you believe the Westminster politicians, that is
:15:25. > :15:26.what you will get. They can put on three quarters length trousers
:15:27. > :15:34.because they have tax`raising powers which they have chosen to use. They
:15:35. > :15:40.decide how to spend NHS money in Scotland. Nobody else in Britain is
:15:41. > :15:45.saying this is how much you have to spend on health. They can spend the
:15:46. > :15:50.money they get from Westminster how they like at the moment. The Mac if
:15:51. > :16:03.they keep slashing the budget by ?25 billion a year, that is going to
:16:04. > :16:08.have a deleterious effect. How do you see this and how independent do
:16:09. > :16:11.most Scots feel? They feel very independent about the issues we
:16:12. > :16:17.talked about, health and education and so on. The problem is one that
:16:18. > :16:19.Tom raises, that we do have too some extent a pocket money parliament
:16:20. > :16:23.where it does not raise the money it spends and is not properly
:16:24. > :16:26.accountable. Now that we are having this debate, however, on the
:16:27. > :16:31.constitution that has been brought into focus and the Westminster
:16:32. > :16:34.parties have been made to search within their policies and think,
:16:35. > :16:39.what is the best constitutional settlement for Scotland within the
:16:40. > :16:43.UK? What we have seen is the Conservatives bring forward
:16:44. > :16:46.proposals involving income tax, Labour bringing forward proposals
:16:47. > :16:51.short of that and Lib Dems searching for a federal model. Can I bring up
:16:52. > :16:55.the question of trust which you raised, Kevin? One of the other
:16:56. > :16:58.things that strikes me as an expatriate Scot coming here and
:16:59. > :17:02.listening to the debate you get one side saying he would be ?1000 per
:17:03. > :17:06.year better off if you vote our way and the other side ?1400 better off
:17:07. > :17:11.if you vote the other way, your mortgages will go up ?1600 if you
:17:12. > :17:16.vote yes as one newspaper headline this week said. None of these things
:17:17. > :17:20.are facts. Despite you saying that the tone of the campaign has been
:17:21. > :17:23.quite high, most of these things are opinions and when the politicians
:17:24. > :17:26.save just trust our figures, maybe they will trust one side or the
:17:27. > :17:30.other but if you are in the middle you might not trust either. I agree
:17:31. > :17:35.that a lot of these figures are unquantifiable and not subject to
:17:36. > :17:41.rigorous, objective research and they never will be until five years
:17:42. > :17:45.down the line. So is this a leap, what you feel in your gut? This
:17:46. > :17:49.whole cliche about the head and heart campaign, in the end it is a
:17:50. > :17:56.heart decision. I agree with Catherine. I have no idea how much
:17:57. > :18:05.better off or poorer we will be but an international expert in
:18:06. > :18:10.anybody's currency. Perhaps if he came to a different conclusion he
:18:11. > :18:17.would be a yes man. He is a no man because he has done his homework.
:18:18. > :18:22.Has he got a knighthood yet? Go for the man and not the ball. Professor
:18:23. > :18:30.Roy McDonald cannot be discredited on this programme by any of us. I
:18:31. > :18:36.would never discredit him. Why were you asking if he had a knighthood. I
:18:37. > :18:39.was just wondering. There are some facts in there but there are doubts.
:18:40. > :18:43.Yes there are and lots of it will come down to trusts and gut feeling,
:18:44. > :18:47.as Catherine said earlier with some of her friends who are born
:18:48. > :18:51.nationalists. That I think one of the reasons why a lot of Labour
:18:52. > :18:57.people are moving towards yes, at least 30%, is because they see
:18:58. > :19:00.Labour have missed a massive opportunity here. Labour had an
:19:01. > :19:14.opportunity to say we will come up with a third way. We want Devomax
:19:15. > :19:18.and this is the way we will do it. If they had done that the issue of
:19:19. > :19:22.independence would not be on the table. A lot of Labour voters are
:19:23. > :19:27.moving towards yes because they are sick of seeing Ed Miliband share a
:19:28. > :19:31.platform with the Tories. I'm fully expecting Ed Miliband to do the
:19:32. > :19:36.keynote address at the next Tory party conference. I don't think that
:19:37. > :19:41.is true, how many platforms as he shared with David Cameron? With
:19:42. > :19:45.currency, with full independence. I don't think he has shared a platform
:19:46. > :19:51.with him on that. You mean metaphorically? This is the first
:19:52. > :20:01.time this year I've seen a Labour leader share a manifesto issue with
:20:02. > :20:06.the Tories. We were talking about the cuts and that is also an
:20:07. > :20:10.uncertainty. That plays into Mr Salmond's hands which is why he has
:20:11. > :20:13.been trying to arrange a discussion on television with David Cameron
:20:14. > :20:19.rather than with Alistair Darling. It was not so long ago Scotland have
:20:20. > :20:24.no Conservative MPs at all and it has only had one in the last 12
:20:25. > :20:28.years or so. A majority of Scots voted Conservative in the 1950s so
:20:29. > :20:35.it is not as if this has never been a conservative country. And voting
:20:36. > :20:40.SNP. In the 1950s. Nowadays they are toxic and get a small
:20:41. > :20:43.representation. About 15% of the vote in proportional representation
:20:44. > :20:47.in the last Scottish Parliament real action. His wife Alex Salmond wanted
:20:48. > :20:53.to debate David Cameron because he was the antithesis of what a lot of
:20:54. > :20:56.Scots want from the politics. It is quite a short`term thing, though. If
:20:57. > :21:03.independence is for ever it's about the principle, rather than the
:21:04. > :21:14.expedient. It shouldn't influence voters but the SNP campaign
:21:15. > :21:17.influences yes voters. They also motivate the fabled missing million,
:21:18. > :21:21.the million or so people who have become habitual nonvoters and are
:21:22. > :21:26.alienating by conventional politics. They still hate the Tories, they
:21:27. > :21:30.might not follow politics too closely, but still hate the Tories
:21:31. > :21:35.and this is a factor. Do any of you think, talking to for journalists,
:21:36. > :21:38.do any of you think that the newspapers, which have Scottish
:21:39. > :21:44.editions, have said something different to Scottish voters, like
:21:45. > :21:49.the sun in England? `` Scottish papers. There is a possibility that
:21:50. > :21:54.Rupert Murdoch, who has fallen out big`time with David Cameron,
:21:55. > :22:01.especially when Cameron was happy to be his friend but then vetoed and
:22:02. > :22:05.destroyed any possibility of the BSkyB merger because of the phone
:22:06. > :22:11.hacking. I think there is a feeling amongst one or two people at the Sun
:22:12. > :22:13.that this could be a classic opportunity for Rupert Murdoch to
:22:14. > :22:18.give his former friend a bloody nose. If the sun came out for
:22:19. > :22:24.Scottish independence that could be very interesting indeed. I don't
:22:25. > :22:30.think it will make a difference. The Scottish Sun in 2007 ran a picture
:22:31. > :22:33.of the SNP symbol converted into a hangman's news on the front page and
:22:34. > :22:40.said if you vote for Alex Salmond you are putting your head in this
:22:41. > :22:45.and the SNP won. However convincing journalists are perhaps we don't
:22:46. > :22:50.change votes. They will want to be on the winning side this time
:22:51. > :22:57.around. But he may want to be on the winning side in the English votes in
:22:58. > :23:02.2015. He will flirt with this idea to extract political capital in the
:23:03. > :23:06.rest of the UK. We only have a few minutes left. What difference would
:23:07. > :23:10.it make if there was a Yes vote on the 18th? What difference would it
:23:11. > :23:14.make for Scotland? It would be huge, as we have been saying, the biggest
:23:15. > :23:18.change in 300 years so we need to start thinking about currency, we
:23:19. > :23:22.need to talk about European Union membership. How on earth do you
:23:23. > :23:26.break up this political union which has exist if the 300 years? There
:23:27. > :23:32.must be so many things we have not even touched on yet which will come
:23:33. > :23:38.out of the woodwork `` has insisted for 300 years. I think she is right.
:23:39. > :23:43.We cannot get bogged down in bureaucratic issues for years to
:23:44. > :23:46.come. It will be grim. We're not talking about issues that really
:23:47. > :23:50.matter to people, whether they will be better schools and hospitals or
:23:51. > :23:54.jobs, it will be a constant battle between Scotland and the rest of the
:23:55. > :23:59.United Kingdom. The idea that you can do it in 18 months is
:24:00. > :24:06.optimistic, to be kind. I think an independent Scotland would put
:24:07. > :24:12.Scotland's relationship with England on a mature, amicable, friendly
:24:13. > :24:17.footing. The union could be perceived to have run its course. It
:24:18. > :24:21.is not fit for purpose any more. It was in the 18th and 19th centuries
:24:22. > :24:29.when we had so many shared institutions. Those institutions are
:24:30. > :24:32.beginning to become decayed. I think a confident, independent Scotland,
:24:33. > :24:37.if that is what is going to happen, will be good for the rest of the UK
:24:38. > :24:42.and the rest of the world. And I wonder if the BBC and the other
:24:43. > :24:45.broadcasters today have to will have their cameras trained on the UN to
:24:46. > :24:50.see a Scottish flag take its place with all the other free, independent
:24:51. > :24:54.countries. Absolutely profound change, no matter what Alex Salmond
:24:55. > :25:00.talks about continuity, profound change for Scotland and the UK. The
:25:01. > :25:03.soul`searching Scotland has gone through over the last few years will
:25:04. > :25:06.transfer to the rest of the UK as it wonders what kind of future to
:25:07. > :25:10.establish for itself and its place in the world. I also think life will
:25:11. > :25:13.go on and they will be a bumpy period of a few years and then for
:25:14. > :25:18.an independent Scotland, if that's what happens, it will be back to the
:25:19. > :25:23.grind, Legislation and policy and life goes on. In terms of the No
:25:24. > :25:27.vote there will still be more devolution. The details will have to
:25:28. > :25:33.be sorted out? I think they will. The Westminster parties have learned
:25:34. > :25:36.the lessons of the aftermath of the first referendum and came back
:25:37. > :25:41.within 15 years. They are acutely aware they do not want this to be a
:25:42. > :25:45.never`ending thing. As it was in Canada. That's it for this special
:25:46. > :25:49.edition of dateline Scotland in Glasgow. We will be back at the same
:25:50. > :25:53.time next week. You can comment on the programme on Twitter using the
:25:54. > :26:18.hashtag dateline. Thank you for watching. Goodbye.
:26:19. > :26:23.There is a mixture of whether on offer through the rest
:26:24. > :26:27.Blustery winds for sure across the northern half of Britain,
:26:28. > :26:33.They will be some rain in the forecast but it is not