:00:27. > :00:30.Hello and welcome to Dateline. I am Maxine Mawhinney. Today we discuss
:00:31. > :00:36.the upcoming Scottish Referendum and have an exclusive insight into the
:00:37. > :00:40.brains behind the Isis Islamic fighters. My guests are Steve
:00:41. > :00:43.Richards of the Independent, joining us from Glasgow Kevin McKenna of the
:00:44. > :00:57.Observer, Agnes Poirier of the French magazine Marianne, and the
:00:58. > :00:59.Arab writer and broadcaster Bari Abdel Atwan. Welcome to you
:01:00. > :01:06.all. First, there's just a few more days
:01:07. > :01:09.of campaigning before 4.5 million Scots vote to either stay or leave
:01:10. > :01:15.Great Britain. Whatever the outcome, huge changes are to come. Steve, can
:01:16. > :01:15.I come to you first. What are your thoughts?
:01:16. > :03:00.This week, President Obama made it Would he have to think about
:03:01. > :03:09.resigning? I think he will think about it. I don't think he will. I
:03:10. > :03:17.don't think it would add to the sense of crisis. There obvious
:03:18. > :03:24.assessor. `` there is no obvious assessor. One of the issues will be
:03:25. > :03:37.his future. His future will be near fatally undermined. Those are two of
:03:38. > :03:46.the many consequences that would arise from a yes vote. Thank you for
:03:47. > :03:56.joining us. Give us a sense of Scotland today. I would endorse what
:03:57. > :04:04.Steve said. This has electrified the country. Not a single village or
:04:05. > :04:20.town will not have had some kind of political meeting. No matter what
:04:21. > :04:29.happens. The country has caught fire with politics. Also community
:04:30. > :04:33.engagement. People would not have voted at Westminster elections or
:04:34. > :04:41.Holyrood elections and now feel they have a voice. That sort of
:04:42. > :04:57.momentum, organic is not easily stopped. Think there will be
:04:58. > :05:01.ramifications in some parts of England from people who previously
:05:02. > :05:10.felt alienate it from the Westminster model of doing politics.
:05:11. > :05:15.Even if it is a narrow win for the No vote, people will have been
:05:16. > :05:19.encouraged about what can be achieved by ordinary people finding
:05:20. > :05:23.their voices again. We are talking about people watching
:05:24. > :05:31.this, people in Catalonia are watching.
:05:32. > :05:36.Yes, but you cannot be half pregnant and you cannot be half independent.
:05:37. > :05:42.We have no idea about what will unravel if the Yes vote passes. As
:05:43. > :05:49.Steve said, if it is a marginal win for the No vote, I think Britain
:05:50. > :05:54.needs a resounding No vote so that it can move on. In any case,
:05:55. > :05:58.Scotland and nationalists in Scotland have won because they will
:05:59. > :06:05.get more autonomy, even if it is a No vote. But the consequences are
:06:06. > :06:11.more meant is not only for the UK but for Europe cause there is
:06:12. > :06:17.obviously Catalonia but also in the delegation is going to Europe next
:06:18. > :06:25.week, you have a delegation going to Texas. Did you know there was such a
:06:26. > :06:33.thing as the Texas National Movement. When the Scots school and
:06:34. > :06:39.falls on the 18th of September, it is not only about politics and
:06:40. > :06:44.bearing a grudge against the anguish or David Cameron, they have a
:06:45. > :07:04.responsibility not only to history but Europe and the world. But let's
:07:05. > :07:09.stay in Europe. The Basques, Britain's `` Bretons. I'm not even
:07:10. > :07:17.sure it would be good for Europe. Do we want to be atomised? I don't
:07:18. > :07:28.think we want that. I think it has potentially cataclysmic to use a
:07:29. > :07:32.strong word, consequences. I am not really worried about the
:07:33. > :07:37.outcome of this separation on Europe.
:07:38. > :07:45.You are the only one. There are others like
:07:46. > :07:50.Czechoslovakia. We know also that in Serbia the same thing happens, in
:07:51. > :07:56.Yugoslavia and we didn't see that reaction. What amazes me is wider
:07:57. > :08:04.political elite, why Westminster left it too late. Suddenly we three
:08:05. > :08:06.the sea `` suddenly we see the three main party leaders coming to
:08:07. > :08:12.Scotland. At henge tone one opinion poll which
:08:13. > :08:19.was looking as if it was moving towards a Yes vote. As this all
:08:20. > :08:22.henge tone one, perhaps erroneous, opinion poll?
:08:23. > :08:28.We are supposed to be one of the most sophisticated countries in the
:08:29. > :08:33.world. So where are those think tanks to protect these kind of
:08:34. > :08:41.things? Why did it not move earlier, two years ago, one year
:08:42. > :08:45.ago, why now in the last two weeks? It should have no been obvious. I
:08:46. > :08:49.know it was triggered by that Paul but all the ingredients were there
:08:50. > :08:56.from the very beginning. Let's bring Kevin back in.
:08:57. > :09:01.I think he is absolutely correct. The site of the three main leaders
:09:02. > :09:08.of the Unionist parties all of a sudden coming north and promising
:09:09. > :09:12.different types of more devolved powers simply smacked of panic and
:09:13. > :09:19.looked extremely condescending. To go back to an earlier point,
:09:20. > :09:24.Scotland, in its history, has been European`looking for several hundred
:09:25. > :09:30.years. While England was building its empire, and I note there were
:09:31. > :09:33.Scots involved in the empire building process, Scotland was
:09:34. > :09:36.trading with lots of European countries and in South America and
:09:37. > :09:41.Africa. We were building relationships and have been doing so
:09:42. > :09:45.with Europe for several hundred years. If there is to be an
:09:46. > :09:51.independent Scotland, one of the first priorities will be to make
:09:52. > :09:55.moves to join Europe. A lot of Scots, while being proud Scots, are
:09:56. > :10:00.also happy to be defined as members of the European community as well,
:10:01. > :10:06.perhaps more so than is the case in England.
:10:07. > :10:10.Westminster leaders were trapped. Just imagine the furore if they
:10:11. > :10:14.hadn't gone to Scotland. They had to go and campaign but then they get
:10:15. > :10:20.called condescending. I think they had no choice but to go in lights of
:10:21. > :10:28.those polls. Why add a personal `` promising more
:10:29. > :10:30.powers for the Scottish parliament? White and they do this two years
:10:31. > :10:36.ago? We will find out this time next year
:10:37. > :10:40.when I'm sure with will be talking about it again.
:10:41. > :10:52.I want to move on because President Obama made clear that America would
:10:53. > :10:57.be bombing Isis positions. You travelled to Jordan and met some of
:10:58. > :11:03.the movers and shakers behind that group. How did you do it, how did
:11:04. > :11:15.you meet them? I am writing a book know about the
:11:16. > :11:25.Islamic State. The question is, whether the American coalition is
:11:26. > :11:31.going to degrade the Islamic State. As he going to destroy it, as he
:11:32. > :11:37.promised, and what will be the consequences? What will happen to
:11:38. > :11:44.the region? I believe President Obama made a mistake when he
:11:45. > :11:49.excluded Syria and Iran from this question coalition. Those people
:11:50. > :11:56.know what they want to achieve and it seems now that there is a huge
:11:57. > :12:03.miscalculation about them. They said we have got it wrong. We estimated
:12:04. > :12:09.10,000 fighters and now there are 30,000. From my own sources, I
:12:10. > :12:22.learned there are about 75,000 fighting under the banner of IS.
:12:23. > :12:28.They captured arms from the Iraqi army. The latest American weapons.
:12:29. > :12:40.We are self`sufficient on money. They got billions of dollars out of
:12:41. > :12:43.ransom. They got mail money. They are extremely independent from any
:12:44. > :12:52.pressure and they can last longer than anyone anticipates.
:12:53. > :12:59.Who is behind them? Who is egging them on and controlling them? Are
:13:00. > :13:04.they out of control? You know? They are not out of control. They
:13:05. > :13:10.are highly organised and have people underground running it. There is a
:13:11. > :13:16.great number of those people, especially the second layer of
:13:17. > :13:22.command, that are ex`Saddam Hussein officers.
:13:23. > :13:34.So very disaffected. The second thing is they come from a
:13:35. > :13:48.group established by David Petraeus. The Prime Minister of Iraq
:13:49. > :13:55.refused to support them so they were angry and let down. After they
:13:56. > :14:00.fought and dismantled Al`Qaeda, they were degraded and so joined the
:14:01. > :14:04.Islamic State. Are just acting out of revenge and
:14:05. > :14:10.bitterness? Yes, and because they were ignored
:14:11. > :14:15.and marginalised completely and there was no place for them in the
:14:16. > :14:21.new Iraq. They were completely ignored and sidelined and are now
:14:22. > :14:28.going from one extreme to another. I want to bring Kevin and from
:14:29. > :14:33.Scotland. What do you make of this? I want to congratulate you on
:14:34. > :14:41.getting that excellent interview. You have to treat with a certain
:14:42. > :14:49.amount of caution President Obama's plans to bomb and use air strikes.
:14:50. > :15:05.The report coming from inside the Free Syrian Army, who oppose both
:15:06. > :15:13.President Assad and IS is that they know what is happening on the ground
:15:14. > :15:20.and they claim that IS now the bolt holes to go to in the event of your
:15:21. > :15:25.strikes happening. The Free Syrian Army are losing morale and losing
:15:26. > :15:31.their own fighters to IS because IS can provide them with homes,
:15:32. > :15:35.shelter, money and food. What they require is more support on the
:15:36. > :15:44.ground to help them not only overthrow the Assad regime but also
:15:45. > :15:48.to fight IS. Air strikes sound great and they could be devastating but
:15:49. > :15:53.they may actually have unintended consequences.
:15:54. > :16:00.In terms of the British position, and whether Cameron backs military
:16:01. > :16:05.action of any sort the on what is already done, I think it depends on
:16:06. > :16:11.President Obama. Partly his own authority after the referendum this
:16:12. > :16:16.week, that is why this referendum affects everything. And partly the
:16:17. > :16:21.mood of Parliament at that particular time. There is some
:16:22. > :16:26.evidence that the House of Commons is willing to endorse military
:16:27. > :16:33.action in this case but he has to be absolutely sure. There are lots of
:16:34. > :16:38.conditions, irrespective of the virtues or otherwise of doing this,
:16:39. > :16:47.for Cameron to calculate before taking Britain into this. On your
:16:48. > :16:51.assessment of around 80,000 military fighters for IS, is that something
:16:52. > :16:59.you are sure of order that you think your sources want you to know.
:17:00. > :17:09.The Syrian human rights monitoring group, which is very reliable, they
:17:10. > :17:18.said clearly that Islamic State have got these fighters. These are
:17:19. > :17:24.well`known facts. The CIA yesterday confirmed that. They are now saying
:17:25. > :17:26.that it doesn't and I believe they are wrong again, it is much more
:17:27. > :17:32.than that. And most of them come from countries
:17:33. > :17:36.like Europe. Kevin refers to an important point.
:17:37. > :17:41.There is migration from other groups in Syria to Islamic State, simply
:17:42. > :17:50.because they are stronger. They have got arms and they are now actually
:17:51. > :17:57.considered more pure than it used to be, simply because the Americans
:17:58. > :18:01.gave them a huge publicity from the bombardment, and credibility because
:18:02. > :18:05.of the conspiracy TV that they were established by Britain, the United
:18:06. > :18:13.States and Israel. So now when America bombs them, many people say,
:18:14. > :18:20.if America bombed them, it means they are really good people. Lots of
:18:21. > :18:25.immigration from the other groups to Islamic State means numbers will
:18:26. > :18:30.swell up and they will be much bigger than many people anticipated.
:18:31. > :18:35.You mentioned hostages and even today we are hearing from the family
:18:36. > :18:38.of the British hostage who is being held by IS, and whose life has been
:18:39. > :18:43.threatened. They have tried to make contact with the group. When you
:18:44. > :18:46.were talking to your sources, was there any mention of him and what
:18:47. > :18:50.might happen? What I understood from my sources
:18:51. > :18:55.was that as long as Britain stays away from this conflict, as long as
:18:56. > :19:04.David Cameron wouldn't send his war planes to bomb them in Iraq or
:19:05. > :19:10.Syria, I think his life will be safe for the time being. But if
:19:11. > :19:17.Britain... Why they executed the two journalists, they executed them
:19:18. > :19:22.immediately after the American air bombardment of Islamic State
:19:23. > :19:28.position. If Britain join, maybe they will take it as revenge. They
:19:29. > :19:33.will say you want to join it, we will execute him.
:19:34. > :19:36.What about the ransom? I know the government 's position is that they
:19:37. > :19:39.do not pay ransom by the families try to make contact.
:19:40. > :19:48.The family is absolutely right to make contact because they have a
:19:49. > :19:55.policy. Islamic State actually made its income from ransoms. Al`Qaeda
:19:56. > :20:04.did the same thing, even in Africa, North Africa, and other parts. They
:20:05. > :20:11.make millions out of this capturing hostages and then exchanging them
:20:12. > :20:24.for ransom so if there is a third party, it could be cat are, ``
:20:25. > :20:31.Qatar, if the British government asked Qatar to pay a ransom, it
:20:32. > :20:42.would be a happy ending but if the British bomb the Islamic State
:20:43. > :20:48.position it to be a tragic ending. I don't think Britain can be
:20:49. > :20:52.blackmailed into not bombing. Francois Hollande was the first
:20:53. > :20:59.Western leader to go to Iraq, yesterday. He met the new Prime
:21:00. > :21:17.Minister. The western Europe has two problems. You can finance proxys on
:21:18. > :21:20.the ground. Because of what's happened in the last 13 years you
:21:21. > :21:24.understand why Obama will doesn't want to send troops. It's a
:21:25. > :21:34.coalition of countries that have to prove their worth. In the end it
:21:35. > :21:44.starting a conversation and it will be down to every single country.
:21:45. > :21:50.They will have to see whether it's in their interest to stop ISIS. It's
:21:51. > :22:01.a dodgy coalition. I'm not sure it will go anywhere. We have all these
:22:02. > :22:10.fighters. So many countries that try to change the political system so we
:22:11. > :22:14.can stop aspiring jihadists leaving France or stop them from coming back
:22:15. > :22:21.in Britain, to revoke their citizenship. If they don't then you
:22:22. > :22:26.can't make them stay. It's a headache. It's a difficult one. You
:22:27. > :22:30.mentioned the referendum and the power David Cameron might have. It's
:22:31. > :22:43.difficult for the British government. It is. The British a
:22:44. > :22:48.hugely factor. `` British hostage. If you think military intervention
:22:49. > :22:55.from America and the UK is a recruiting agent for ISIS what would
:22:56. > :23:01.you do if you were Obama? If I'm Obama I say to the regional powers,
:23:02. > :23:07.this is your problem. Islamic State is not a direct threat to the United
:23:08. > :23:14.States or Britain. It's a direct threat to Iran, Saudi Arabia. You
:23:15. > :23:19.have to sort it out. We can help you with certain military ways,
:23:20. > :23:24.ammunition, but this is your job. I think that is what he's trying to
:23:25. > :23:31.do. You can't rely on last solving your problems all of the time. You
:23:32. > :23:37.can't imagine how attractive this organisation is Chu`Young frustrated
:23:38. > :23:51.people. `` is to young and frustrated. Now America would like
:23:52. > :23:57.to use Syrian armed opposition to fight the Islamic State. It's why
:23:58. > :24:01.people are leaving these groups and joining the next eight because they
:24:02. > :24:08.don't want to be with the Americans. The Middle East now is a failed
:24:09. > :24:15.state. Nobody can tell what will happen in wars start. We will leave
:24:16. > :24:20.that topic because we will be back for that next week. I want to go
:24:21. > :24:26.back to the referendum and put all of my guests in a rather difficult
:24:27. > :24:30.position. Kevin, I'm coming to you in Scotland. Same question. What are
:24:31. > :24:38.your predictions for the results on Friday. Will it be independence or
:24:39. > :24:48.not? It will be a very narrow win for the yes side. I think it will be
:24:49. > :24:53.a narrow win for the no side. I wouldn't put any money on it. What
:24:54. > :24:57.do you think Mark a big no. That's been my position
:24:58. > :25:14.from the beginning. Closely watching in Europe? Yes.
:25:15. > :25:20.Hoping it will be a big no. I've been following this. The amount of
:25:21. > :25:33.intimidation to the Scottish people, the economic scare, RBS
:25:34. > :25:39.saying this, Tesco filling out. I think this kind of intimidation
:25:40. > :25:48.which is shocking to me, this could lead to a very narrow win. The
:25:49. > :25:51.biggest loser could be the United Kingdom. I want to thank all of my
:25:52. > :26:03.guests. Thank you for sharing with us your
:26:04. > :26:08.trip than your talks with Islamic State. We are back next week at the
:26:09. > :26:41.same time. If you've been stuck in the office
:26:42. > :26:45.watching the fine weather from behind the window through the
:26:46. > :26:50.weekend the dry conditions continue. Quite a bit of cloud but when the
:26:51. > :26:52.sun comes through it will feel reasonably warm but turning breezy
:26:53. > :26:53.as we go into