:00:22. > :00:23.Hello and welcome to Dateline London.
:00:24. > :00:26.The deaths of more than 200 people on the Russian airliner
:00:27. > :00:29.What are the consequences for Russia, Egypt,
:00:30. > :00:35.Plus, where does the intelligence war against Islamic State link to
:00:36. > :00:38.the British Government's plans for more surveillance powers?
:00:39. > :00:42.Alexander Nekrasov, who is a Russian journalist,
:00:43. > :00:44.Stryker McGuire, of Bloomberg Markets,
:00:45. > :00:47.Abdel Bari Atwan, who is an Arab writer and commentator,
:00:48. > :00:52.and Janet Daley of the Sunday Telegraph.
:00:53. > :00:55.All around the world we can imagine the same scene -
:00:56. > :00:58.taking our families on holiday for, perhaps, a bit of winter sun in
:00:59. > :01:01.a different culture, boarding the plane home and then a disaster.
:01:02. > :01:03.In this case, the Russian airliner over the Sinai peninsula.
:01:04. > :01:06.The people who call themselves Islamic State say they did it
:01:07. > :01:09.and Islamic State in Syria have been celebrating.
:01:10. > :01:23.First of all, Alexander, just tell us what kind of Russians go on
:01:24. > :01:31.holiday? What kind of people are we talking about? We are talking about
:01:32. > :01:36.ordinary people. They are lower -middle-class. Some of the people
:01:37. > :01:45.who died, there was a dinner lady and a factory worker who won the
:01:46. > :01:51.holiday as a prize for his good work. We are talking about ordinary
:01:52. > :02:00.people and I think the shot in the country is because when you see all
:02:01. > :02:04.the close of children scattered around and the grieving relatives, I
:02:05. > :02:15.think the nation united around the tragedy. -- I think the shock. Every
:02:16. > :02:24.country in the world can associate with that grief and understand what
:02:25. > :02:34.that means because children were going on holiday and then suddenly
:02:35. > :02:40.there was death. This is a shock. Do the authorities in Russia accepted
:02:41. > :02:45.as a bomb? Although there is no official statement, I think that the
:02:46. > :02:53.fact that the head of the Russian intelligence was telling President
:02:54. > :03:01.Putin it is best to take out all the 90,000 Russian tourists in Egypt and
:03:02. > :03:08.I think that without saying it they are accepting that it was a
:03:09. > :03:12.terrorist attack. President Putin, who sometimes does not accept
:03:13. > :03:17.advice, he has accepted the advice from his intelligence people. I
:03:18. > :03:24.think it was the right thing to do. Who else would you expect him to
:03:25. > :03:33.take advice from. This is a moment that unites people. Also the
:03:34. > :03:40.civilian airliner that was shot down over the Ukraine, but the reason I
:03:41. > :03:42.think the Russia has not made an official announcement is because
:03:43. > :03:48.politically that is very difficult for President Putin. It seems to be
:03:49. > :03:51.a direct consequence of his involvement in Syria and his
:03:52. > :03:55.involvement in Syria was already politically difficult because the
:03:56. > :04:03.Russians remember Afghanistan and they were very ambivalent about
:04:04. > :04:09.becoming involved in Syria. Now the involvement in Syria seems to have
:04:10. > :04:16.had this repercussion, so it is awkward for them to admit that he
:04:17. > :04:19.has incited this terrorist incident on Russian civilians. This will play
:04:20. > :04:28.into the hands of President Putin in the short term at least. He said
:04:29. > :04:33.that they sent their war to Syria to fight Islamic State and to stop them
:04:34. > :04:44.coming to us. The problem is that when we look at its, Isis is
:04:45. > :04:54.victorious because of this thing. They have been able to tell people
:04:55. > :05:02.that they delivered a double blow, an economic one because this will
:05:03. > :05:07.destroy the remnants of tourism in Egypt and secondly a security blow
:05:08. > :05:09.because it means they have the ability to penetrate security
:05:10. > :05:26.measures that are meant to be very tight. We managed to get them out
:05:27. > :05:36.and finish them, so to coincide with his trip to Britain, Islamic State
:05:37. > :05:40.managed to blow up this plane. But if it is a victory for Isis then it
:05:41. > :05:48.can be a victory for President Putin as well. I am not saying that. But
:05:49. > :05:53.they are celebrating. The perception in Russia of Isis is something that
:05:54. > :05:58.has been created by the West. That is the perception on the ground.
:05:59. > :06:01.President Putin has no problem explaining to people why they went
:06:02. > :06:09.to Syria, because even before the Russians started bombing Isis in
:06:10. > :06:15.Syria they had already threatened Russia, they already had members in
:06:16. > :06:23.areas, Chechnya and is already seeing they were part of Isis. --
:06:24. > :06:31.the people in Chechnya. The perception is that he is fighting an
:06:32. > :06:36.enemy that is causing a danger. This is such a familiar story now. If you
:06:37. > :06:41.go into that part of the world you get burnt. It is impossible to do
:06:42. > :06:51.anything on any side without getting a problem. President Putin may use
:06:52. > :06:56.this in the short-term as a justification for what he's doing in
:06:57. > :07:01.Syria, but in the long-term this is an example of how things can turn
:07:02. > :07:08.you and I think Janet is right that the Russian memory Afghanistan...
:07:09. > :07:17.You're missing the point. This was not a Russian invasion, it was done
:07:18. > :07:21.without a mandate from the people. You cannot compare Americans going
:07:22. > :07:29.into Afghanistan and causing me have and then running off... It is like
:07:30. > :07:42.saying it was a different administration. The Nan -- the the
:07:43. > :07:46.fact it was a different generation is neither here nor there. All they
:07:47. > :07:50.can remember are the body bags coming home and a Russian still the
:07:51. > :07:55.same about Afghanistan and they are wary about involvement in that part
:07:56. > :08:00.of the world. American policy is that you go into countries, you
:08:01. > :08:07.leave a mess, you run off, like in Iraq and Syria, and then you think
:08:08. > :08:12.things will work out themselves. Russia left Afghanistan in the same
:08:13. > :08:23.position. You cannot leave a failed state behind. I want to hear what
:08:24. > :08:27.the answer is. What is the answer? The Americans and the West to have
:08:28. > :08:36.created the mess in Iraq and Libya have two pit boots on the ground.
:08:37. > :08:51.Does Russia have to do that in Syria? Russia did not cause that
:08:52. > :08:57.problem. Russia is trying to help. Russia has boots on the ground in
:08:58. > :09:03.Syria and they have enabled bases -- and they have naval bases. They are
:09:04. > :09:08.advising the Syrian army. I am not saying that this is good or bad.
:09:09. > :09:15.Don't think about America and the West. The Russians were warning
:09:16. > :09:21.America when they invaded Iraq that this would cause a chain reaction. I
:09:22. > :09:38.don't want to argue with you, I want to argue with Janet. Go ahead and
:09:39. > :09:42.argue. What is happening is relieved frightening many people in the
:09:43. > :09:50.Middle East state is gaining ground and they are getting stronger and to
:09:51. > :09:57.do what they did in Sharm el-Sheikh, they have done this
:09:58. > :10:04.because they have managed to achieve victory. This will help them to
:10:05. > :10:09.recruit more people to their site. Do you agree with that? If it was
:10:10. > :10:15.proved to be them and they are dancing in the streets, it will
:10:16. > :10:22.recruit more people to their cause? Everything recruits more people to
:10:23. > :10:27.their cause. It attracts people from myriad discontents and malcontents
:10:28. > :10:32.across the region, including in our own country. The difficulty is that
:10:33. > :10:39.it is a monster without a head, so it is difficult to defeat. In any
:10:40. > :10:45.security sends, but I think the time might be coming. I was interested to
:10:46. > :10:50.see the Foreign Minister for your country saying that the preservation
:10:51. > :10:56.of President Assad's resume was not a requirement of the Russians to
:10:57. > :11:00.become involved. Russia is moving closer to working incorporation with
:11:01. > :11:05.the United States to do something. Do you think it is possible? I think
:11:06. > :11:11.the movement is happening from both directions. I think you are right,
:11:12. > :11:16.Janet, but I think the British and the French recognise that in order
:11:17. > :11:22.to have a solution we may need Russian help and in that sense that
:11:23. > :11:25.could be good. How long it takes to get there and how many people will
:11:26. > :11:33.die in the meantime is another question. And Iranian help. The
:11:34. > :11:38.problem is that what the Russians can't understand is that we have a
:11:39. > :11:43.terrible example of Libya, terrible, when they resume was taken out
:11:44. > :11:46.quickly and nothing was put into its place. Now we have a failed state.
:11:47. > :11:53.The same scenario is being written for Syria when they said that
:11:54. > :11:57.President Assad must go tomorrow. It cannot work like that, you have to
:11:58. > :12:03.do it slowly which is what the Russians are saying. It needs to be
:12:04. > :12:06.done in cooperation. The remaining superpower will have to work with
:12:07. > :12:10.the ex-superpower and other allies in the region and be prepared to
:12:11. > :12:19.stay there and create a viable state. That is the only possible
:12:20. > :12:23.solution. The problem is that in theory the Americans will work with
:12:24. > :12:28.the Russians to fight Islamic State, but in the long run I believe they
:12:29. > :12:37.will clash. It is a proxy war between the two sides. The Russians
:12:38. > :12:43.are seen as supporting the sheer while the Americans in the West as
:12:44. > :12:54.supporting the Sydney. It would be very fatal. The problem is that in
:12:55. > :12:57.the West to change the regime and now they are trying to change the
:12:58. > :13:09.resume and Syria. The problem is that they don't know, they don't
:13:10. > :13:20.have big plans after that. Just a second. Where are the Arab states in
:13:21. > :13:29.this? They are divided. The irony is that Egypt is going back to its
:13:30. > :13:41.alliance with Russia. You can't blame them? I don't blame anyone.
:13:42. > :13:48.The problem is -- is the major problem you're always forgetting. --
:13:49. > :13:58.the major problem you're always forgetting is that we cannot leave
:13:59. > :14:03.America alone. It is time to ask one question and then maybe you can
:14:04. > :14:10.comment. Why can we not defeat Isis? I can tell you, because there are
:14:11. > :14:14.half measures. There are countries and governments allowed to finance
:14:15. > :14:19.it and no one seems to know this. Where is the money that Isis makes.
:14:20. > :14:24.The banks loaned them money, just like the drug cartels. The drugs
:14:25. > :14:33.cartels exist because the banks lend them money. They now don't have a
:14:34. > :14:41.money problem at all. Everyone avoids one small thing, recruitment.
:14:42. > :14:46.Why do young people go and join this terrible group of gangsters? Why do
:14:47. > :14:50.they join them? Because there is a serious crisis in our modern
:14:51. > :14:54.society, spiritual, religious, cultural. We have people at the top
:14:55. > :14:59.who are doing what ever they want and getting away with it so what do
:15:00. > :15:10.you expect from people on the ground. The problem for the West in
:15:11. > :15:17.having to remove machines like President Assad is that they cannot
:15:18. > :15:21.support genocidal. If it a choice between genocidal maniacs and
:15:22. > :15:25.anarchy, they will go when and then they have to deal with the fact that
:15:26. > :15:29.they need to stay in to deal with the anarchy. The Americans have been
:15:30. > :15:32.accused for many generations of supporting tinpot dictators have
:15:33. > :15:36.murdered their own people and now those people are turning on America
:15:37. > :15:42.for displacing builds tinpot dictators. In 1988, the last
:15:43. > :15:52.Reagan-Gorbachev summit, I was sent there as a young journalist and I
:15:53. > :15:57.was told privately that the West, Russia, and the United States will
:15:58. > :16:07.have to cooperate against Islamic fanaticism. He said that in 1988. Do
:16:08. > :16:13.you see that moment coming? Not properly cooperating. I really
:16:14. > :16:17.don't. I don't see it happening. For a number of reasons. Firstly, I
:16:18. > :16:24.think there is a tremendous amount of distrust between the two
:16:25. > :16:34.countries. How many times have they had to reset? There are fundamental
:16:35. > :16:42.differences in their historical and cultural... So I don't think in the
:16:43. > :16:47.short time. You don't see it either? I think it is the best for the whole
:16:48. > :16:53.world to disagree, because we don't want them to agree with each other
:16:54. > :16:58.against us. Seriously, we in the third World we are suffering from
:16:59. > :17:02.Russian intervention and American intervention. It both of them agree
:17:03. > :17:07.against us it will be a blow catastrophe. Henry Kissinger would
:17:08. > :17:17.be proud of you for your mental flexibility there. Why is Janet
:17:18. > :17:22.supporting anarchy? I was saying that what the West can do is be seen
:17:23. > :17:27.to support genocidal tyrants. It is got in trouble for doing that. The
:17:28. > :17:32.West should leave us alone. We have had in lot of your military
:17:33. > :17:41.intervention. Please stay away. When there are terrorist incidents like
:17:42. > :17:49.9-11, it is Isis who are not leaving after alone. Isis is your creation.
:17:50. > :18:00.You either incubator for Isis and Al-Qaeda. You do not talk about the
:18:01. > :18:05.invasion of Iraq... The first attempt on the twin towers happen
:18:06. > :18:11.before the Iraq invasion. Let me make this point about the reset
:18:12. > :18:16.button. The reset button on the relationship with Russia was part of
:18:17. > :18:22.Obama's withdrawal of America from the global scene in which President
:18:23. > :18:29.Putin very cleverly walked into the vacuum that Obama left in foreign
:18:30. > :18:36.policy. Now America has to rethink the reset because it has retired as
:18:37. > :18:44.he superpower. I think history will be the judge of that. A lot of
:18:45. > :18:54.people understand why Obama was gun shy. He wanted not to be Bruce. We
:18:55. > :19:01.have to think about what happened in America to Bush and public opinion.
:19:02. > :19:16.You want him to stay away. Yes, I do. It was too early. It was
:19:17. > :19:23.dangerous to do that. He could not say that he was pulling out because
:19:24. > :19:28.he was a duck. Obama was very active in pulling Pakistan into the war in
:19:29. > :19:33.Afghanistan and when you said we are not supporting, America is not
:19:34. > :19:40.supporting dictators, what about Saudi Arabia? You're always avoid
:19:41. > :19:44.this. I'm not sure that she does. Obama virtually announced in the
:19:45. > :19:48.first year of his presidency that America was not going to be the
:19:49. > :19:52.policeman of the world any more. He went eastern Europe and removed the
:19:53. > :20:07.missile bases and fed to rush out we are out of the game. A lot of what
:20:08. > :20:14.has happened is... If you look at American destruction in the Middle
:20:15. > :20:26.East in Iraq and Libya. I think we are on the verge of an agreement.
:20:27. > :20:30.Can I just bring in, do you think there is an implication for
:20:31. > :20:33.anti-terrorist legislation in this country and elsewhere? In other
:20:34. > :20:39.words, the way this has panned out over the last week is that the
:20:40. > :20:44.British intelligence intercepted information that made the case to
:20:45. > :20:48.the Prime Minister that the British people could be in danger. They
:20:49. > :20:55.think that it impacts British politics because there is a big
:20:56. > :21:01.debate about the slippers charter, could find what the intelligence
:21:02. > :21:09.agencies can and cannot do. -- snoopers. I don't think it is that
:21:10. > :21:13.simple. It is a debate that has happened in other countries. It has
:21:14. > :21:16.happened in Germany and the United States. I think the debate may
:21:17. > :21:21.become so powerful that it would work against what you are talking
:21:22. > :21:28.about. I think that if you had a built two nights -- if you had a
:21:29. > :21:34.bill tonight 's in the heater ball of this perhaps. People are starting
:21:35. > :21:40.to think about the fact there is one CCTV camera for every 11 people.
:21:41. > :21:47.This legislation could advise what has already been going on. It
:21:48. > :21:51.licenses it in regular rises at which I think is very dangerous. I'm
:21:52. > :22:07.amazed at the complacency of the British about this. They trust their
:22:08. > :22:13.spies. This is a very dangerous precedent. Everyone is talking about
:22:14. > :22:16.privacy and that makes it sound insignificant, but this is about
:22:17. > :22:21.presumption of innocence. You should not be subjected to this kind of
:22:22. > :22:24.surveillance if you are an innocent person and are no grounds for
:22:25. > :22:30.thinking that you are not and it is also about freedom of association,
:22:31. > :22:36.to say that you can communicate with anybody but we will be watching
:22:37. > :22:41.Bilski medications. There is also the laziness of the intelligence
:22:42. > :22:45.services and politicians. They think it is the case that if you listen to
:22:46. > :22:49.everyone you will find out the truth. That does not take into
:22:50. > :22:52.account human intelligence and human factor. They do not want to do it
:22:53. > :22:58.because it is dangerous, help and safety might say something about it,
:22:59. > :23:04.it is dangerous to infiltrate and it is expensive and it takes time. All
:23:05. > :23:09.the human intelligence has been swept away because now we can listen
:23:10. > :23:14.to everyone. Look what has happened? The world has got more dangerous.
:23:15. > :23:20.Can we trust the intelligence? Can be believing them, especially when
:23:21. > :23:25.we were misled about intelligence information and Tony Blair admitted
:23:26. > :23:30.that he got the wrong intelligence which actually created the problem.
:23:31. > :23:36.Tony Blair created intelligence, which is the problem. The British
:23:37. > :23:41.intelligence told is that the aborted eight fatal attacks in this
:23:42. > :23:54.country, but how did they do it? Did they arrest anybody? The problem is
:23:55. > :23:57.that we do not know. I freedom -- we give up our freedom when we had
:23:58. > :24:05.mobile phones. We surrendered to them. Protecting life is always
:24:06. > :24:10.going to be the first priority of any government. You have to think
:24:11. > :24:18.about the quality of the life that you are protecting. Is that the
:24:19. > :24:22.operation for anybody can... This new bill is allegedly going to have
:24:23. > :24:30.a double lock. In America, the NSA has to go to a court and 99.9% of
:24:31. > :24:34.cases they rubber-stamp the decisions of the security officers.
:24:35. > :24:50.This is not the life that free people should be living. I suspect
:24:51. > :24:58.if it was put to a referendum... I was going to say that I think that
:24:59. > :25:03.even if we trust, said that we don't, but let's say we did trust
:25:04. > :25:09.the intelligence services, can we trust them to safeguard this
:25:10. > :25:14.information? There are people out there, especially if it is collected
:25:15. > :25:20.into one place, the efforts to get that information is going to be
:25:21. > :25:26.huge. That is that BN is of the Edward Snowden M Bradley Manning
:25:27. > :25:33.situation because you could not have printed it off because there was so
:25:34. > :25:40.much. What you have is a battle between Edward Snowden on one hand
:25:41. > :25:42.and 9-11 on the other hand. We need to end it there.
:25:43. > :25:45.That's it for Dateline London for this week - we're back next week
:25:46. > :25:50.You can of course comment on the programme on Twitter, @gavinesler.