:00:22. > :00:24.Hello and welcome to Dateline London.
:00:25. > :00:28.In a world where many have lost confidence in political leadership,
:00:29. > :00:31.can the climate change talks really make a difference?
:00:32. > :00:33.And talking of political leadership, what do Donald Trump,
:00:34. > :00:35.Jeremy Corbyn, France's National Front, Syriza and Podemos
:00:36. > :00:43.My guests today are Marc Roche of Le Point and Le Soir,
:00:44. > :00:46.Henry Chu who is an American journalist and broadcaster,
:00:47. > :00:48.Polly Toynbee of The Guardian, and Abdallah Homouda
:00:49. > :00:57.There's an old story about a dog walking on two legs -
:00:58. > :01:00.it does not do it very well, but you congratulate it
:01:01. > :01:02.because you are surprised it does it at all.
:01:03. > :01:05.Is that the real story of the Paris climate change talks; that they may
:01:06. > :01:07.not deliver a perfect solution to environmental problems,
:01:08. > :01:10.but they do represent at least an extraordinary attempt by world
:01:11. > :01:12.leaders to show that most elusive of qualities -
:01:13. > :01:22.It has been, Ed Miliband was saying this is the French have done a
:01:23. > :01:27.really good job. They did a marvellous job because
:01:28. > :01:39.they fought to get this agreement at the last minute, and they had to
:01:40. > :01:54.persuade Saudi Arabia, so it is a great success for Paris, but of
:01:55. > :01:58.course what are the details? Basically Western countries don't
:01:59. > :02:04.have the money to finance climate change, the industry is fighting
:02:05. > :02:20.against this agreement and has lots of money to persuade policymakers to
:02:21. > :02:27.finance denial of climate. The NGOs are divided, but the issue is
:02:28. > :02:35.unemployment, terrorism... That's today's issue. And so it is a
:02:36. > :02:38.great battle won, but it is not a war.
:02:39. > :02:43.Nevertheless the good news for those that who have been there is that the
:02:44. > :02:49.client -- time for climate change scepticism is gone. We have to do
:02:50. > :02:54.something about it, therefore to get people to agree on almost anything
:02:55. > :03:00.is a bit of a triumph. I think in terms of what it is, it
:03:01. > :03:03.is -- whether it is a great demonstration of leadership, really
:03:04. > :03:08.Barber said to do. After Copenhagen anything which came
:03:09. > :03:12.out of this was going to be a success.
:03:13. > :03:17.I realise getting 200 countries to agree is very difficult, but this
:03:18. > :03:24.should be a dog walking on four legs are not two. As Mark says, we need
:03:25. > :03:28.to see what the details are. 1.25 Celsius is more ambitious, it is
:03:29. > :03:32.still not enough. I went to see if there will be any
:03:33. > :03:41.teeth behind this or whether it will descend into unworkable and
:03:42. > :03:44.unenforceable solution. The science is so far ahead of what
:03:45. > :03:57.is politically possible because of all the reasons that Marc said.
:03:58. > :04:01.In Britain we have had the most rainfall over in some parts of the
:04:02. > :04:08.country. Now officially this rainfall is a direct result of
:04:09. > :04:14.global warming, the extraordinarily warm winter we have had so far. But
:04:15. > :04:17.at the same time we have a Government that promised to be the
:04:18. > :04:22.greenest Government ever, and has just cut all of the subsidies for
:04:23. > :04:28.renewables for wind and for soul or just as they were becoming economic
:04:29. > :04:32.Lee viable. -- solar. We could generate all of our electricity in
:04:33. > :04:38.this country for wind and solar, with a bit of back-up from nuclear,
:04:39. > :04:42.but the nuclear deal is outrageous, appalling, it is the most expensive
:04:43. > :04:46.form of energy that is. If he had spent a fraction of that on solar
:04:47. > :04:49.and wind, he could have produced much more. So within this country
:04:50. > :04:55.there are climate politics that are very difficult.
:04:56. > :05:04.One thing I am waiting to here about is an end to the force of trading in
:05:05. > :05:11.carbon credits, which everybody is trying to shift the burden onto
:05:12. > :05:17.others. Reducing the fund or the lack of funding to help third World
:05:18. > :05:21.countries, I'm not sure if Saudi Arabia coming in would be asking to
:05:22. > :05:27.foot the Bill because the reduction in oil prices would not help, and
:05:28. > :05:33.the crisis in the Middle East to which the Saudis are contributing
:05:34. > :05:40.wouldn't help either. I don't know. But I am optimistic on one thing,
:05:41. > :05:46.but it is a stand which everyone has taken, however limited, to prove
:05:47. > :05:51.that we are all on the same boat. I mean, the globalisation of the
:05:52. > :05:57.economy, of media, of culture, values, has come to climate change.
:05:58. > :06:01.It would come to terror as well because nothing which happens
:06:02. > :06:07.anywhere in the world does not affect in the rest of the world.
:06:08. > :06:11.I wonder how many countries covered this on their front pages.
:06:12. > :06:16.The is only one ballot, there is no plan B.
:06:17. > :06:23.-- there is. This is even one -- even more important than the world
:06:24. > :06:26.was coming -- all over the world. And yet we have covered it thinly,
:06:27. > :06:30.dutifully, on an inside page. We should have been following every
:06:31. > :06:34.twist and turn and pointing fingers at those countries that were being
:06:35. > :06:39.recalcitrant. I didn't think any country has covered it in the way
:06:40. > :06:44.they should. You were talking about wars, we have
:06:45. > :06:47.had war on terrorism, war on drugs, nobody talks about the war on
:06:48. > :06:53.climate change, but that is the sort of rallying we need, and it seems --
:06:54. > :06:58.and what seems to be just earnest coverage doesn't really do it.
:06:59. > :07:10.I hate the use of the word "War". Just call it a plan of action. But
:07:11. > :07:16.no one has made the link, it is about the refugee crisis, because it
:07:17. > :07:23.is quite clear that many of the refugees are coming to Europe,
:07:24. > :07:31.fleeing the effect of climate change also, not only war and other things.
:07:32. > :07:40.And so the people who are against climate change, financed very often
:07:41. > :07:45.by the industry, should be opposed to refugees also but they should see
:07:46. > :07:47.that the two issues are linked. People think it's boring, basically.
:07:48. > :07:54.Everybody agrees, and then There is a concept in American
:07:55. > :07:59.politics called concepts which the American public
:08:00. > :08:08.thought were appropriate Republican hopeful Donald Trump this
:08:09. > :08:12.week went right outside the window by calling for Muslims to be banned
:08:13. > :08:14.from the United States. But does Trump also represent
:08:15. > :08:17.a phenomenon we have seen across democracies -
:08:18. > :08:18.what Jeremy Corbyn calls politics as usual?
:08:19. > :08:24.leaders shattering Overton Window And are any of these former
:08:25. > :08:36.outsiders likely to wield real power Donald Trump. How do you explain why
:08:37. > :08:41.Donald Trump is regarded around the world is a bit of a buffoon, and is
:08:42. > :08:44.regarded with an American politics is potentially the next president?
:08:45. > :08:49.I don't think -- know how many people think he has a shot at the
:08:50. > :08:57.presidency, a chicken and egg question. What he
:08:58. > :08:57.is saying creating a budget -- particular
:08:58. > :09:15.creating a budget -- particular climate of fear. And so he is in a
:09:16. > :09:29.sense the id of the Republican Party.
:09:30. > :09:29.politics. You have the right and the left, you
:09:30. > :09:34.have populists on both ends. they are coming into greater
:09:35. > :09:38.prominence now. Whether they can really come into power, I'm not so
:09:39. > :09:41.sure, but besides power the is influence.
:09:42. > :09:46.What you are seeing with Donald Trump, is pulling the party rhetoric
:09:47. > :09:51.within the Republican party particularly, father to the right
:09:52. > :09:54.and expressing those things which once seemed beyond the pale.
:09:55. > :10:04.-- further to Cheney, all the other Republican
:10:05. > :10:09.candidates, saying this is nonsense. This is un-American.
:10:10. > :10:14.But every time we in the media have said he has gone too far, he has
:10:15. > :10:21.always seemed to either recover or have a bounce in the polls. These
:10:22. > :10:26.appalling statements have usually been at times he has begun to
:10:27. > :10:33.experience, edition. So this has been a way of solidifying his base.
:10:34. > :10:39.It is like a religious cult in the sense that the more opposition he
:10:40. > :10:41.engenders, the more they think is actually correct. When you mentioned
:10:42. > :10:49.some of the other phenomena we see, whether it's the national Front or
:10:50. > :10:53.Overton Window, these aren't new forces. The national Front has been
:10:54. > :11:02.around for a long time. -- whether it's the national Front or Syriza.
:11:03. > :11:07.But they are all being much more successful now than many years ago.
:11:08. > :11:11.Because of the collapse of the centre.
:11:12. > :11:18.How do you see Trump? IC Trump as... He is not politically
:11:19. > :11:22.experienced. He had nothing to do with politics all his life.
:11:23. > :11:27.That is the -- the attraction though.
:11:28. > :11:32.But I am trying to describe him as he is. This can be an attraction to
:11:33. > :11:37.people in America who have lost the faith with Washington, who would
:11:38. > :11:42.like to bring someone from, a fresh breeze from outside. And to the
:11:43. > :11:46.Americans he could have some new appeal.
:11:47. > :11:51.I really surprised that he has solidified his support. He has more
:11:52. > :12:00.than twice than the next contender. How far can he go? I am not sure,
:12:01. > :12:08.but would he be the opposite number of Hillary Clinton for example?
:12:09. > :12:17.She must wish it, must be prayers said in the Democrats.
:12:18. > :12:24.Other Muslims reporting him as mainstream or maverick?
:12:25. > :12:29.He is reported as a maverick, not a serious politician, but nevertheless
:12:30. > :12:32.there is a sense of feeling victimised in the Arab and Muslim
:12:33. > :12:39.world, because people escape the Middle East because of the crisis in
:12:40. > :12:47.the Middle East. They don't do for the leisure of finding a better
:12:48. > :12:52.life, but people are under immediate threat, and danger.
:12:53. > :12:57.How do you see Trump? The list of people I gave deliberately from the
:12:58. > :13:01.left and the right, they are all different things, but the one thing
:13:02. > :13:12.they have in common is that there is something rotten with the state of
:13:13. > :13:15.politics, it is an insiders' club. Well, if I wanted to try and be
:13:16. > :13:20.optimistic about Trump I would say what might be useful with what he
:13:21. > :13:23.has done is articulate something bubbling under the surface of a lot
:13:24. > :13:27.of all for more conventional politics.
:13:28. > :13:32.-- awfully more. We are worried about these Muslims,
:13:33. > :13:35.are they going to tip the cultural balance? There is a sort of cultural
:13:36. > :13:41.shudder going on very much influenced by the terrorism, and
:13:42. > :13:44.maybe when somebody comes out and just said -- says Ed, let's just
:13:45. > :13:51.throw them all out, you are suddenly pulled up short and is said that is
:13:52. > :13:54.ridiculous, impossible. And maybe it's sort of cleanses it
:13:55. > :14:02.in a way. And you have something to confront. When you have people like
:14:03. > :14:07.Cheney saying it is outrageous, maybe you Lance the boil. I am being
:14:08. > :14:14.optimistic. If you take the national Front in
:14:15. > :14:19.France, who have gone ahead, although the left and the right
:14:20. > :14:28.haven't done that badly either. They have caught the immigration issue.
:14:29. > :14:36.People are afraid of the image they have seen on television. Where their
:14:37. > :14:44.weakness is, including Trump, is the economy. The economic lesson is
:14:45. > :14:52.suicidal, national Front, they want out of the euro, protectionism,
:14:53. > :14:55.nationalisation, more civil servants, and through foreign
:14:56. > :15:01.workers out. It makes no sense. And that is why I think Marine Le Pen
:15:02. > :15:09.will do extremely well in the regional elections but she will lose
:15:10. > :15:15.the presidential elections. Read my lips, she will not be president.
:15:16. > :15:17.But I think also you are identifying that people are actually responding
:15:18. > :15:22.emotionally, they are not responding to a policy position in a rational,
:15:23. > :15:27.intellectual way. And I think we see this with Donald Trump stop Polly, I
:15:28. > :15:34.take your point that it might allow a catharsis for the people who have
:15:35. > :15:39.these feelings that are suppressed. But they could also poison the well.
:15:40. > :15:43.As I mentioned earlier I feel like there has been condemnation of him
:15:44. > :15:51.from some of the other party rivals, but they haven't necessarily as
:15:52. > :15:56.strong or as dignified was we might want it to be, and I think that will
:15:57. > :16:00.force them to adopt even -- and even further right position.
:16:01. > :16:05.When you look at all your different right left -- right, left, maverick
:16:06. > :16:10.parties, is there something going on where people some -- suddenly are
:16:11. > :16:14.expecting something different from politics? They wanted to be fun,
:16:15. > :16:23.exciting, something new, it is kind of 24-hour news politics -- 24-hour
:16:24. > :16:35.news politics. Reality television. Yes, we have some kind of -- but
:16:36. > :16:40.looking at the left for example, Syriza in Greece, first their
:16:41. > :16:48.diagnosis of the problem was not right. They fought harder than
:16:49. > :16:53.necessary, and we had to recapitulate at the end. The people
:16:54. > :16:58.elected them second time because the alternative was not right enough to
:16:59. > :17:01.stop so there is a problem here. These people, do they need to mature
:17:02. > :17:11.more in politics to understand the realities, or just the lack of
:17:12. > :17:19.alternative? With regard to Podemos in Spain, they had to align with a
:17:20. > :17:26.right wing party in order to get them there in the capital. And then
:17:27. > :17:30.she adopted someone from an extreme right wing party as a Chief
:17:31. > :17:39.Executive of the municipality. -- in order to get a mayor.
:17:40. > :17:48.Jeremy Corbyn has been the only one with the ideological background.
:17:49. > :17:52.How do you mean? He has never even run a committee. He has been in
:17:53. > :17:55.Parliament, but he has been a one-man protest.
:17:56. > :17:58.I am talking about the tradition of the Labour Party from which he
:17:59. > :18:03.comes. But he has always been on the
:18:04. > :18:06.outside, he has never been appointed to anything, they have always said,
:18:07. > :18:11.that is Jeremy sitting in the corner.
:18:12. > :18:17.The vote of the national front, it is young people, less educated,
:18:18. > :18:25.workers, unskilled or middle skilled, afraid of globalisation. We
:18:26. > :18:31.have a real problem. Part of the population is of the employment, and
:18:32. > :18:35.so we have to think how to bring these people back into mainstream
:18:36. > :18:43.and then they will vote for them. We have seen this week people saying
:18:44. > :18:49.the middle class in America is finished, and I wonder whether it
:18:50. > :18:54.was the case that we have been told that there is no alternative, Mrs
:18:55. > :18:58.Thatcher's phrase, to a kind of market economics that we have, and
:18:59. > :19:01.yet it doesn't seem to work for many people, including the middle
:19:02. > :19:04.classes, and therefore if you are told there is no alternative you
:19:05. > :19:09.start looking for other things, it may be the left or the right, it may
:19:10. > :19:21.be Jeremy Corbyn or more fun in politics, it may be Podemos, but
:19:22. > :19:24.people are maybe realising that things are implanted unfairly.
:19:25. > :19:28.This is the longest recession we have had in our lifetime, and this
:19:29. > :19:33.permanent hollowing out where technology is taking out all the
:19:34. > :19:39.decent and jobs, so either you are highly educated as a top
:19:40. > :19:42.professional, or there are a lot of rotten service jobs from which there
:19:43. > :19:46.are no ladders up. I think that is beginning to seep through, people
:19:47. > :19:52.see their children's opportunities, the number of graduates who are
:19:53. > :19:55.working in coffee shops, note chance of anything better, it is
:19:56. > :20:01.unpredictable whether it comes out right or left. A lot of us on the
:20:02. > :20:03.left thought, here is the crisis of capitalism at last, this will make
:20:04. > :20:08.people realise that we cannot have finances, -- double finances run in
:20:09. > :20:13.the way they have been. It hasn't worked out that way. But
:20:14. > :20:17.we now have a Coalition Government -- we had a Coalition Government, a
:20:18. > :20:22.Conservative Government, gone the other way. The left has missed its
:20:23. > :20:28.chances, not just in Britain but elsewhere.
:20:29. > :20:34.We have Francois Hollande, but not doing...
:20:35. > :20:39.The left is Italy and the Italian example is an example of a left
:20:40. > :20:42.wing, really reformist, changing things like no right wing Government
:20:43. > :20:47.would have done. And in terms of what we did consider
:20:48. > :20:50.extremist, let's not ignore the fact that in Britain you have a
:20:51. > :20:54.Government that was already considering in pursuit of an agenda
:20:55. > :20:59.of cuts that were radical, but we haven't seen in a generation.
:21:00. > :21:06.In America you have had offices that have benefited very, very tiny
:21:07. > :21:09.subsections of the population, so you could call that extreme to a
:21:10. > :21:12.certain extent and there are people now reacting to that, already pushed
:21:13. > :21:21.to the extreme. How far do you see some of these
:21:22. > :21:25.forces achieving power? Overton Window did, but the people who
:21:26. > :21:27.wanted -- who didn't want to compromise broke away from Syriza.
:21:28. > :21:38.-- Syriza. The young people have social
:21:39. > :21:46.demands, economic terms -- demands. They need their aspirations to be
:21:47. > :21:51.addressed. When these people know how to do it in political terms and
:21:52. > :21:56.when this is cemented into the politics in a way that can make it
:21:57. > :22:01.doable, now you will have some kind of stability and they will succeed.
:22:02. > :22:07.But so long as this is not the case, you look at the Arab Spring and Arab
:22:08. > :22:12.countries' relation -- revolutions, you can demolish but not build.
:22:13. > :22:18.Did they come out of the crash or the recession? Was the a connection?
:22:19. > :22:23.No, I think it had nothing to do with the recession, the recession
:22:24. > :22:29.was the worst, it to time to transpire.
:22:30. > :22:33.But it was economically driven. The provision has been a community
:22:34. > :22:36.for decades. But it is not necessarily directly connected to
:22:37. > :22:41.what happened in the West because people were suffering. The social
:22:42. > :22:46.media, it is connected to the social media more than to the economic
:22:47. > :22:51.crisis. Mark said Marine Le Pen may have
:22:52. > :22:56.success but will not become president, what do you think about
:22:57. > :23:01.Jeremy Corbyn's chances? Limit. He scores less well
:23:02. > :23:06.personally than Ed Miliband who just lost the election because some
:23:07. > :23:09.people regarded he was too much to the left.
:23:10. > :23:13.So much of it now is about charisma and character.
:23:14. > :23:18.Back story and all the rest of it. You feel that he is in exactly the
:23:19. > :23:23.same place as Ed Miliband, in North London intellectual, miles away from
:23:24. > :23:32.ordinary people's lives and he doesn't have the magic ingredient.
:23:33. > :23:36.You feel he hasn't thought it. We know what happened in Britain
:23:37. > :23:41.with the opinion polls last time, they weren't exactly a curate.
:23:42. > :23:47.I saw the New York Times suggesting that opinion polls don't measure
:23:48. > :23:52.younger voters, because younger voters do not have landlines and it
:23:53. > :23:54.is much easier to pull people who have landlines.
:23:55. > :23:58.In other words there are things which are not measurable by politics
:23:59. > :24:01.as usual. Yes, and one of those measures is
:24:02. > :24:05.social media, and that is where a lot of it is happening now, but I
:24:06. > :24:12.think the smart campaigns, and Obama's campaign tapped into this,
:24:13. > :24:16.was seeing what was going on there and turning it to their advantage.
:24:17. > :24:21.But the people around Corbyn forget that following each other on
:24:22. > :24:24.Twitter, they get an echo chamber effect where they think everybody
:24:25. > :24:27.out there is just like us, and that is the danger.
:24:28. > :24:34.That is exactly the problem of political forces in Egypt. The
:24:35. > :24:37.political parties meet at Cairo hotels and exchange messages via
:24:38. > :24:40.Facebook and they think they reach the people. No one reaches the
:24:41. > :24:44.people, you have to go to the people.
:24:45. > :24:54.The victory of Marine Le Pen was due to social media.
:24:55. > :24:57.This is very important. When you talk about the echo
:24:58. > :25:02.chambers and whether there is a chance of success for these parties,
:25:03. > :25:05.we have had insurgents like this into politics before, and this is
:25:06. > :25:07.actually not a new phenomenon in political history in the last
:25:08. > :25:13.century. Hitting back at the United States,
:25:14. > :25:22.they tended to split the vote on whichever side of the fence they
:25:23. > :25:26.were, but that is true of Britain, coalitions...
:25:27. > :25:32.We have an appalling political system where there should be a split
:25:33. > :25:36.between the Socialists and the Democrats, and the same is true on
:25:37. > :25:40.the rights, between the Europeans and the pro-Europeans.
:25:41. > :25:43.And yet our Government is never going to reform the voting system
:25:44. > :25:46.because it suits them. But people had a chance to vote for
:25:47. > :25:53.it, and I think with the exception of Jeremy Corbyn's constituency
:25:54. > :25:58.there were only three places that voted for Bush to representation.
:25:59. > :26:02.The Conservative Party put a huge amount of money and effort into
:26:03. > :26:06.misleading people, saying it would be very expensive to change.
:26:07. > :26:10.You offer people a little more choice in their voting, and the tone
:26:11. > :26:14.it down, and you wonder if the world has gone mad!
:26:15. > :26:16.That's it for Dateline London for this week.
:26:17. > :26:18.You can comment on the programme on Twitter @gavinesler.
:26:19. > :26:20.We re back next week at the same time.
:26:21. > :26:54.A wet Saturday for a large parts of the UK. There is a real contrast
:26:55. > :26:57.with the temperatures right now, across northern Britain it is
:26:58. > :27:02.called, whereas in the south it is really mild. It is in the middle
:27:03. > :27:08.that we have the wet stuff, that rain hitting the colder air, falling
:27:09. > :27:12.as some snow. This cloud moved in overnight and is going to bring most
:27:13. > :27:18.of us a pretty dull weekend. There will be a lot of cloud around
:27:19. > :27:21.could -- today, further rain around across north of England and North
:27:22. > :27:27.Wales. At lower levels there could be some
:27:28. > :27:30.snow, and on the higher levels it could make for tricky travelling
:27:31. > :27:35.conditions. There is sunshine across northern
:27:36. > :27:38.Scotland, brightening up in Glasgow, and after a wet morning things
:27:39. > :27:43.turning brighter and drier and Northern Ireland. Staying wet in
:27:44. > :27:47.northern England. Potential for further flooding in parts of the
:27:48. > :27:50.Midlands, and there is that snow falling on the higher roots in
:27:51. > :27:53.northern England. Even at lower levels there could be a little bit
:27:54. > :27:59.of snow. Far south, look at the temperatures,
:28:00. > :28:02.12, 13. It stays blustery on the south
:28:03. > :28:04.coast. As the rain clears from northern
:28:05. > :28:09.England, the Midlands, it could turn icy overnight.
:28:10. > :28:12.With the rain across the South, temperatures don't drop here, we
:28:13. > :28:16.stay in double figures in the south-west.
:28:17. > :28:19.Further north it will be a very cold night.
:28:20. > :28:23.Extensive frost across northern England, parts of Northern Ireland
:28:24. > :28:30.and Scotland, -5 or maybe even -10 in some Scottish lens.
:28:31. > :28:34.-- glens. Dial and down across south-east
:28:35. > :28:39.England, the Midlands, tomorrow. South Wales, south-west England
:28:40. > :28:43.generally have another grey but largely dry and mild day.
:28:44. > :28:46.Further north, the sunshine will turn rather hazy.
:28:47. > :28:50.Temperatures will struggle. They could be some snow is that web
:28:51. > :28:56.whether Bush is into southern Scotland for a time on Saturday.
:28:57. > :29:01.-- Sunday. It will keep things relatively mild
:29:02. > :29:03.in the South West, but there will also be spells of rain across the
:29:04. > :29:07.weekend.