:00:25. > :00:26.Hello and welcome to Dateline London.
:00:27. > :00:29.Britain's place in Europe - in or out of the EU?
:00:30. > :00:31.Is Libya the next front in the international
:00:32. > :00:36.My guests today are: Thomas Kielinger of Die Welt.
:00:37. > :00:41.John Fisher Burns of the New York Times.
:00:42. > :00:48.2015 has been a pretty awful year for the European Union -
:00:49. > :00:50.the economic crisis rumbles on, low growth in the Eurozone,
:00:51. > :00:52.problems over immigration and secure borders -
:00:53. > :00:56.and those pesky British trying to rewrite the rules of the club.
:00:57. > :01:00.David Cameron received some sympathy from other EU leaders this week -
:01:01. > :01:02.but is he on course to achieve the reforms he wants?
:01:03. > :01:07.And how far does the British public, or voters across
:01:08. > :01:23.Is he getting anywhere? The aim was to set the hurdles are so low that
:01:24. > :01:26.there was no possibility of failing. The times was right when they
:01:27. > :01:31.characterise these negotiation points as being well within the
:01:32. > :01:34.margin of the status quo. I think the biggest effort amongst
:01:35. > :01:39.bureaucrats in Brussels is to conceal their relief at the modesty
:01:40. > :01:46.of British so-called demands. There is no attempt to get away from the
:01:47. > :01:49.primacy of EU law. No attempt to get away from employment or social
:01:50. > :01:53.chapter rules which are committed two when he became leader of the
:01:54. > :01:57.Conservative Party. So is he getting anywhere, well, yes I think some of
:01:58. > :02:00.the European friends that he is not saying that what he used to say
:02:01. > :02:04.about the strength of demands that the UK would have to cease satisfied
:02:05. > :02:08.in order to argue for a remain filled. It is very clear that he
:02:09. > :02:14.wants to remain in the European Union. The trouble is in his own
:02:15. > :02:20.party. People like me who are happy to see what the negotiation will be
:02:21. > :02:24.of bowl made up our minds, this is no real negotiation at all. We can
:02:25. > :02:30.make up our minds now. Could it be a cunning plan to encourage reform
:02:31. > :02:35.from those, Angela Merkel wants changes to, lots of people, a way of
:02:36. > :02:40.making those changes actually happen because some people to think to do
:02:41. > :02:44.similar things you say would be posturing. Some of the things he set
:02:45. > :02:47.out in his letter, you will see immediately when they benefit one
:02:48. > :02:54.came under challenge, it was pretty much knee jerk reaction, well,
:02:55. > :02:59.perhaps we can concede on that, so I don't think it is a cunning plan, it
:03:00. > :03:02.is a very obvious plan to make very small demands, have lots of people
:03:03. > :03:06.make a fuss about how significant those demands are and then get them
:03:07. > :03:13.quite quickly and say let's go to the country and argued to in.
:03:14. > :03:16.Brussels will see it coming to them, if they think they can breathe a
:03:17. > :03:19.sigh of relief, what about the British voter? I think there will be
:03:20. > :03:30.huge backlash here is the idea that this is preordained games coin,
:03:31. > :03:37.Cameron is walking under the sword, taking the whole referendum is
:03:38. > :03:41.almost anathema somehow, because it is a shadow on the future of Europe.
:03:42. > :03:51.We tremble to think that we might lose Britain. Angela Merkel, doesn't
:03:52. > :03:56.want that. So, where do we go? We have no such love for the future of
:03:57. > :04:05.the EU wants Britain has that. -- sat now. It is like we are watching
:04:06. > :04:10.a pantomime. In December, the David Cameron bank the table and placed
:04:11. > :04:19.himself in the corner, because I completely agree with Alex. It is
:04:20. > :04:23.not how he manages to negotiate, it will not satisfy the British public,
:04:24. > :04:30.especially those who've already made up their minds because it has been
:04:31. > :04:35.going on for some time now. In Britain, sorry, on the continent, as
:04:36. > :04:44.you call us, we don't want to see Britain go, we would be so side. If
:04:45. > :04:50.you look at the map, Britain is in Europe, last time I checked. It
:04:51. > :04:56.would be so sad, it would almost be like an amputation. Imagine seeing
:04:57. > :05:02.Germany or Italy or Spain go. Lots of countries are in Europe and not
:05:03. > :05:11.in the EE. Norway, Switzerland... -- EU. You need a country like Britain,
:05:12. > :05:17.a paragon for reform, liberalism, free trade etc... Urging for forward
:05:18. > :05:21.movement. If you were only is nice to us all the time, I wouldn't have
:05:22. > :05:26.this referendum in the first place. If the strategy is to keep Britain
:05:27. > :05:29.in the EU, perhaps holding a referendum is a very risky way of
:05:30. > :05:37.going about it, but if they simply was strategy to see of UKIP, it has
:05:38. > :05:41.been a triumph. Well, I think there is something to be learned from what
:05:42. > :05:45.happened last time we had a referendum, on what was then the
:05:46. > :05:48.European economic community or common market. When the issue was
:05:49. > :05:53.for all the differences and time on the issues at hand, the core issue
:05:54. > :05:58.was national sovereignty, and what happened? In the campaign, the polls
:05:59. > :06:05.showed it was a close thing. It was a very vigorous campaign. One third
:06:06. > :06:10.of the then Labour Cabinet favoured the alt option. And what happened on
:06:11. > :06:23.polling day, 67% of the British public voted to stay in and I have a
:06:24. > :06:27.feeling, about, the public of this country has well appreciated all the
:06:28. > :06:33.benefits that have come to us from opening the door to Europe 40 years
:06:34. > :06:39.ago. And I certainly see it very clearly as a Brit who spent most of
:06:40. > :06:42.my working life abroad, coming back here, to see how fundamentally this
:06:43. > :06:48.country has been changed by their opening to Europe. Let's not forget
:06:49. > :06:53.that hundreds of thousands of Brits retired to Europe, the continent as
:06:54. > :06:57.you put it, every year. Millions visit the continent. Our high
:06:58. > :07:03.streets... They have been changed by all of this. I think the public... I
:07:04. > :07:07.think Mr Cameron expects and understand this, they were once the
:07:08. > :07:13.game but with the security of staying in Europe. If he is right
:07:14. > :07:17.then interestingly, the Prime Minister by the end of his tenure
:07:18. > :07:21.will have had three referendums, one on Scotland, one on the voting
:07:22. > :07:24.system and one on the EU. He will have cemented the status quo on all
:07:25. > :07:33.three and what could be more conservative than that! Is this an
:07:34. > :07:40.irony alert? You mentioned the big picture. Sovereignty. How far do you
:07:41. > :07:46.think this will be about immigration and chaos on the border? Not
:07:47. > :07:50.directly related but clearly on the minds of many people. Very
:07:51. > :07:56.significantly. As you know, the out vote looked like it was leading
:07:57. > :08:01.quite strongly until recently. The polls reversed. Remaining was
:08:02. > :08:06.strongly in the lead. Not until the last election but the immigration
:08:07. > :08:10.crisis, waves of migrants coming into the EU. Effectively the free
:08:11. > :08:14.movement system and the migration system broke down. That is why the
:08:15. > :08:18.powers that be both in this country and in Brussels are desperate,
:08:19. > :08:22.either to had a referendum before June, the next summer and wave of
:08:23. > :08:26.migration we can expect, or a well after it. They don't want to have it
:08:27. > :08:33.during a time of the currency of the next move, which I am afraid, feisty
:08:34. > :08:39.Angela Merkel,... You could say that that makes the case for European
:08:40. > :08:47.solidarity will stop the British should rest assured. What we're at
:08:48. > :08:55.the moment is actually really a dent on the Schengen agreement. If not
:08:56. > :08:57.temporarily... We already have controls of the borders. They only
:08:58. > :09:02.had to take the train throughout Europe and you see it happening.
:09:03. > :09:08.It's not as if Britain is alone in being worried about the future, we
:09:09. > :09:16.are all working on it. It is not going to make them safer to be out
:09:17. > :09:22.of Europe because Schengen... Do you think Schengen is finished? The
:09:23. > :09:24.problem with Britain here is that we are not talking about asylum
:09:25. > :09:30.seekers, we're talking about immigrants who are looking for jobs
:09:31. > :09:36.and Britain is becoming the success. She is a booming economy. People
:09:37. > :09:44.continue to come here whatever. That might be also if we decide to pull
:09:45. > :09:48.out of the EU. Maybe. It has begun to be understood in Brussels and
:09:49. > :09:50.that is why I think the flexibility lies. People begin to understand
:09:51. > :09:55.that Britain has immigration problem. Everyone says why don't you
:09:56. > :09:58.take more asylum seekers, they have beginning to learn that there had
:09:59. > :10:02.been a million people going to these islands in the last three years
:10:03. > :10:09.alone. Germany has seen it in one year. There is an understanding in
:10:10. > :10:14.Brussels, something has to be done. There will be some sort of room... I
:10:15. > :10:19.think the British public should count its blessings. How ideally
:10:20. > :10:24.placed we are as a member of Nato, the European Union, with our ties to
:10:25. > :10:29.the Commonwealth, the attractions that being an English-speaking
:10:30. > :10:35.country... You're talking about soft power. All this allows us
:10:36. > :10:39.flexibility in international affairs, not to mention authority in
:10:40. > :10:44.international affairs, for a country which is after all only 60 million
:10:45. > :10:49.people. I think we would not, in majority, wants to surrender any
:10:50. > :10:53.part that. But that is inaccurate. The WTO, many other countries
:10:54. > :10:56.including Norway, they represent itself at the WTO. We are
:10:57. > :10:59.represented by the European Commission so we have a lesser
:11:00. > :11:08.presence at several international table then we would do otherwise. We
:11:09. > :11:09.will leave it there. Yes, like Arnold Schwarzenegger, we will be
:11:10. > :11:10.back. The gunmen of Daesh or so-called
:11:11. > :11:13.Islamic State tried to seize more territory in Iraq this week,
:11:14. > :11:16.but were beaten back by Kurdish Now another front has opened up -
:11:17. > :11:19.fighting for some Is a threat from Daesh anywhere -
:11:20. > :11:23.a threat everywhere - meaning an extension
:11:24. > :11:30.of the coalition's role in Libya? And what do we think with the
:11:31. > :11:34.potential for a peace agreement in Syria? That is potentially one of
:11:35. > :11:42.the big news events that will carry forward next year, the UN saying we
:11:43. > :11:48.have to get Iraq together. It is actually together and Russia is on
:11:49. > :12:00.board. Hope is coming strangely from Moscow. Absolutely optimistic. Now
:12:01. > :12:04.the operation is so diverse and have to look at the collapse in Syria and
:12:05. > :12:10.Iraq in terms of territories. The Kurds are waging very bravely the
:12:11. > :12:16.war on the ground on our behalf. We should always talk about the Kurds.
:12:17. > :12:24.Then there is the beer. I am so struck -- Libya. The emergence of
:12:25. > :12:30.this... If you look at history, the passions of tribes, you look at the
:12:31. > :12:35.Libya, the collapse of the state. I think we were right to save the
:12:36. > :12:39.population of Benghazi. I disagree with people who say this was the
:12:40. > :12:43.beginning of the end, no, it was very precise. There was going to be
:12:44. > :12:47.a carnage and we intervened with the UN mandate. And if we hadn't done
:12:48. > :12:52.that, people would say why did you allow 50,000 people to be
:12:53. > :12:58.slaughtered. The collapse of the state, we can see, nowhere more than
:12:59. > :13:05.in Libya can we see the travel politics at hand. Also in Africa,
:13:06. > :13:08.with Boko Haram. One perhaps good thing that happened after the Paris
:13:09. > :13:12.attacks, or we all know the air strikes are not going to solve the
:13:13. > :13:20.solution, we need to sit at the table. Perhaps, it is interesting,
:13:21. > :13:25.the caliphate, Daesh, or IS, whatever you call it, they want to
:13:26. > :13:32.do is destroy the agreement of 1916. Perhaps at some point soon, when I
:13:33. > :13:40.save, we, I save the world, he said that the table and design maps. --
:13:41. > :13:46.save the world. Without having to send massive trips on the ground.
:13:47. > :13:53.One thing that seems to underpin that is the question of other at the
:13:54. > :13:56.Russia analysis of this, Syria, it has perhaps been better and more
:13:57. > :14:02.accurate than that of the United States, Britain and other places. I
:14:03. > :14:06.think Russia has a more important part to play than we want to think
:14:07. > :14:12.and they want to go for the current government but only for the time
:14:13. > :14:19.being. The Russians are going to change their mind on the future of
:14:20. > :14:24.Assad. I don't think they can rely on Russian support forever. His days
:14:25. > :14:31.are numbered. My problem, govern, with the term coalition. What is the
:14:32. > :14:36.caller should... This is the West, plus Russia, what about the rest of
:14:37. > :14:41.the Arab world? We can't begin to think about redesigning frontiers
:14:42. > :14:46.until you have vanquished Daesh. We need them to think that it is their
:14:47. > :14:52.future, not just the West or the colour lesson. Until that day, when
:14:53. > :14:58.I see some ground forces in our country -- coalition. I am not
:14:59. > :15:02.hopeful until that. He spent a lot of time in places in the Arab world,
:15:03. > :15:07.do you see the appetite for stability? I was on the streets of
:15:08. > :15:16.Baghdad when the Marines entered from the south-east on what was the
:15:17. > :15:21.9th of April 2003. I saw people throwing flowers at the tanks and I
:15:22. > :15:24.felt at the time that the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, as long as it
:15:25. > :15:27.could be accomplished at an acceptable cost, which of course
:15:28. > :15:33.proves not to be the case, was for the welfare of the people in Iraq
:15:34. > :15:38.and the Middle East. Of course what we saw, we destabilised, however
:15:39. > :15:44.unpleasant Saddam was, we progressively destabilised a number
:15:45. > :15:49.of Middle East regimes, and we have had very little influence on the
:15:50. > :15:56.chaos that has ensued. To me, the lesson to draw from all of this now
:15:57. > :16:01.is that the Middle East handle its own dynamic, we have very little
:16:02. > :16:04.real influence on the outcome, we can try and mitigate some of the
:16:05. > :16:09.suffering that results, but I think we should be extremely careful about
:16:10. > :16:15.any further military involvement, and when I hear about training
:16:16. > :16:21.Libyan armies, we saw what happened when we tried to train Libyan
:16:22. > :16:26.soldiers here. I think it is very doubtful that we will be able to
:16:27. > :16:30.train and effective unified Libyan army until the Libyans solve their
:16:31. > :16:32.own problems. And there is a very grave danger that some of our
:16:33. > :16:37.trainers if they are going to be putting boots on the ground, they
:16:38. > :16:42.could fall into the hands of very brutal people. I think the biggest
:16:43. > :16:49.winner of all this so far with Vladimir Putin... With limited
:16:50. > :16:51.commitment in the region, he has transformed the picture both
:16:52. > :16:57.strategically and politically and he does not share our squeamishness
:16:58. > :17:00.about casualties rates. He doesn't share any western misgivings about
:17:01. > :17:07.loss of troops or lives on the ground, be them civilian or those...
:17:08. > :17:11.It looks like we will accept his logic, leaving the strongman in
:17:12. > :17:16.place rather than the western province of getting the rid of the
:17:17. > :17:21.strongman which we have exercised with Saddam, and sought to do with
:17:22. > :17:25.Assad. The difficulty is, in not only is the strongman less of a
:17:26. > :17:32.strongman than Saddam, he doesn't have the same grip on the country,
:17:33. > :17:38.but moreover, that Isis and Daesh is not defined in that area, the final
:17:39. > :17:44.point on that of course being that Putin deals far more robustly with
:17:45. > :17:49.threat internally. I think having the Russians active in this is
:17:50. > :17:53.probably the largest single threat to Isis. Whatever we may think about
:17:54. > :17:56.our military capacity, it is not just the force he has it is the
:17:57. > :18:03.willingness to use it, but I think we lack. I think you're painting to
:18:04. > :18:07.positivity picture of Putin. What is it a blunted of clinging on to
:18:08. > :18:12.assert? Here's is only creating work for mile and that is his most
:18:13. > :18:18.cynical equation. The bombing campaign which led others to join,
:18:19. > :18:22.he creates more refugees who all come to Europe causing more
:18:23. > :18:28.problems. You think Putin minds that? As well as the Middle East is
:18:29. > :18:34.concerned, I think there is a lot for Putin to game. As I said before,
:18:35. > :18:39.the days of Assad are numbered. He cannot always rest on Russia to keep
:18:40. > :18:49.him in power. Russia is coming on board for some kind of solution. His
:18:50. > :18:59.best decoration is to weaken this union... Russia doesn't manufacture
:19:00. > :19:02.oil. It sells energy well and as long as it has a seriously disrupted
:19:03. > :19:07.Middle East, the one thing it has got left to sell, in any meaningful
:19:08. > :19:13.international quality, it gets bought at its price and that is a
:19:14. > :19:18.good result for them. I think if we have marginal resources in terms of
:19:19. > :19:22.money or people to deploy, we should of course mitigate the suffering
:19:23. > :19:30.across the Middle East, but also attend more to our own national
:19:31. > :19:32.security. And strengthen our intelligence and Security agencies
:19:33. > :19:36.still further. I think it is fair to say that if you step back from all
:19:37. > :19:45.of this, they have done remarkably well in the face of the dangers of
:19:46. > :19:54.the X filtration of Daesh back to the UK, a Paris type attack here.
:19:55. > :19:56.Repeated successes by the intelligence and security agencies
:19:57. > :20:00.demonstrated again this week by the conviction of a young man who
:20:01. > :20:07.apparently planned a beheading on reverence Sunday. -- Remembrance
:20:08. > :20:12.Sunday. I think we should thank God for our blessings and put more money
:20:13. > :20:16.and manpower into domestic security while doing everything we can to
:20:17. > :20:23.mitigate the suffering. Part of the narrative we have been talking
:20:24. > :20:27.about, it used to be... A choice between the strongman and some kind
:20:28. > :20:31.of religious extremism, over the past ten or 12 years was a different
:20:32. > :20:34.narrative, the possibility of democracy, the flowering of the Arab
:20:35. > :20:40.Spring, it is very difficult to argue that there is anything in
:20:41. > :20:46.that. Tunisia is a moderate success, but that seems to be the only one.
:20:47. > :20:51.Yes, and a lot of people in the West thinking, it was such a more secure
:20:52. > :21:01.place when they had all these dictators in the Middle East. It
:21:02. > :21:09.doesn't make them happier of course, but then we have attacks in Paris as
:21:10. > :21:16.we saw in 2015. I agree with John, we need to defeat Daesh. The world
:21:17. > :21:18.these to go to the table at some point and intelligence is key. A
:21:19. > :21:21.final item now. Donald Trump exerts a peculiar
:21:22. > :21:23.fascination for people not just in the United States
:21:24. > :21:25.but around the world. What is it that so many Republican
:21:26. > :21:27.voters find attractive? Will the US presidential election
:21:28. > :21:30.come down to a contest between The Donald
:21:31. > :21:40.and Hillary Clinton? He is a remarkable figure. I thought
:21:41. > :21:47.you were going to have this poisoned chalice. On the one hand, I'd played
:21:48. > :21:50.on involvement because I have a British passport in my pocket. As
:21:51. > :21:55.far as I can understand what is going on in American politics, it
:21:56. > :22:01.has been a bad decade and more with the United States. Beginning with
:22:02. > :22:05.the attack on the Twin towers, then the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq
:22:06. > :22:08.which have cost lives of many Americans, not to mention tens of
:22:09. > :22:17.thousands of others in those two countries. A trillion or more
:22:18. > :22:19.dollars. And an increasing disaffection, unfortunately, across
:22:20. > :22:23.much of the world for the United States as a result. The consequence
:22:24. > :22:31.of which, there are a lot of angry and confused people in Iraq. Some of
:22:32. > :22:35.them find a simple solution being purveyed by Mr Trump, quite
:22:36. > :22:40.attractive. They will say this, whilst what he said about shutting
:22:41. > :22:43.the door on Muslims was impractical, obnoxious, divisive, among other
:22:44. > :22:49.things, if you listen to the second half of what he said, I think it
:22:50. > :22:53.gave a sort of clue as to why he gets the support, because he said,
:22:54. > :22:59.let's close the door on to weaken, quote, figure out what the hell is
:23:00. > :23:03.going on. I think a lot of us would like to be able to figure out what
:23:04. > :23:07.the hell is going on and find a path through all this, and it is not at
:23:08. > :23:11.all surprising that the American people have been secure in their own
:23:12. > :23:17.continent for much of their existence, they are very confused in
:23:18. > :23:21.their millions, and angry, and they find some solace in what he is
:23:22. > :23:25.saying. My guess is when the republican primaries come around, we
:23:26. > :23:29.will find that the polls are once again inaccurate, and that he will
:23:30. > :23:33.fade, and it will be one of the republican senators who will come
:23:34. > :23:37.through as the republican candidate. Which again is part and parcel of
:23:38. > :23:41.this uncertainty, you don't even know who will eventually make the
:23:42. > :23:45.running because it is so unlikely it will be Trump. But don't bet on it,
:23:46. > :23:50.you don't know, because this is very persuasive until we know what
:23:51. > :23:55.happens, it cuts ice with a lot of people. It'll be a long time before
:23:56. > :23:59.we know what happens, as we just discussed, beginning with the Middle
:24:00. > :24:05.East, it is a total mess of unpredictability and a feeling we
:24:06. > :24:11.are shooting moving targets on moving platforms, there is no
:24:12. > :24:15.certainty to be heard. Nelson said in the battle of Trafalgar, there is
:24:16. > :24:23.no certainty on the seaside, something must be left to chance. I
:24:24. > :24:27.wish we had a bit more certainty... He is an extraordinary figure. John
:24:28. > :24:31.is absolutely right. This second part of that strikes a chord, not
:24:32. > :24:35.just with Americans, what the hell is going on, a lot of people are
:24:36. > :24:40.trying to figure it out. The only thing good I say about it, Hillary,
:24:41. > :24:46.if he is going to run for the republicans, then she is in. It
:24:47. > :24:53.would make are quite happy. Because she is competent, you can say a lot
:24:54. > :24:58.of things about her but... We have had a Clinton before of course. We
:24:59. > :25:06.have got the repair and family in France. Talking about dynasties.
:25:07. > :25:13.Otherwise, he is a strange figure. What does Germany make of Trump? We
:25:14. > :25:19.are left speechless. Somehow this behaviour and his outrageous
:25:20. > :25:24.statements,... Where do you see him figure? I have bad news for you,
:25:25. > :25:28.both week, sitting around the table and the people who watch Dateline
:25:29. > :25:33.London, we are not his perfect audience. The effort he is making to
:25:34. > :25:38.win denomination for his party, he is doing very well, and when you say
:25:39. > :25:45.he wants to menu at one of those outrageous statements, they are what
:25:46. > :25:48.means he does best. -- ameliorate. It has been very obvious that many
:25:49. > :25:52.people don't want him to succeed, and I would suggest to those people
:25:53. > :25:56.that sneering at him is the worst tactic of all, because when people
:25:57. > :26:01.sneer and say, this statement has been outrageous or that view is
:26:02. > :26:05.unacceptable, people who are deeply afraid about their children and
:26:06. > :26:09.their allies say, actually, he speaks... I thought he had a point,
:26:10. > :26:16.but now what he says is unsayable, he speaks for me. People said that
:26:17. > :26:21.about George W Bush. And they were consistently wrong. The lasting
:26:22. > :26:26.consequence of this will be, you will not be the republican nominee,
:26:27. > :26:31.you will not be elected, but he does own a golf course, and he may come
:26:32. > :26:35.into question whether the open golf tournament can be held at Turnberry
:26:36. > :26:39.as long as he is... That is it for Dateline London this week. We are
:26:40. > :27:04.back next week at the same time. Goodbye.
:27:05. > :27:09.If you have not stepped outside today, it might surprise you when
:27:10. > :27:15.you do just how mild the weather feels. Last night might have been a
:27:16. > :27:16.record breaker. In North Devon we got down to 14.2 Celsius last