:00:00. > :00:28.keeps coming across the north-east of England at eastern Scotland.
:00:29. > :00:33.Happy New Year, and welcome to Dateline London's
:00:34. > :00:37.lookahead to 2016 - the year of the US presidential
:00:38. > :00:39.elections, almost certainly of a European Union referendum
:00:40. > :00:41.in Britain, extremes of weather, the threat and reality of terrorism,
:00:42. > :00:43.plus difficult arguments over immigration and what to do
:00:44. > :00:45.about the problems of the Middle East.
:00:46. > :00:47.Our top team of predictors and prognosticators are: Marc Roche
:00:48. > :00:52.Mina al Oraibi, who is a writer and commentator.
:00:53. > :01:01.And Stephanie Baker of Bloombergy Markets.
:01:02. > :01:09.Let us begin with the US presidential elections. Is this
:01:10. > :01:12.Hillary Clinton's collection to lose? It ends on who her opponent
:01:13. > :01:18.is, that is the difficult debate. Everyone has expected Donald Trump
:01:19. > :01:22.to blow up and he has not, his latest outrageous statement will
:01:23. > :01:26.cause voters to turn on him. I do not think that will happen, he
:01:27. > :01:31.cannot see anything more outrageous than he already has. We have to look
:01:32. > :01:40.at how the prerace play out. In Iowa, the first
:01:41. > :01:47.ahead. He is financially speaking, the best placed of the other
:01:48. > :01:55.contenders. The feeling is that he could perhaps win a string of
:01:56. > :01:59.southern states, super Tuesday, March the 1st, that could give him
:02:00. > :02:05.momentum and Donald Trump could slowly die and feed as people focus
:02:06. > :02:09.on, do we really want him as our candidate? Can he really beat
:02:10. > :02:13.Hillary Clinton? Because the polls are showing that he would lose
:02:14. > :02:21.against Hillary Clinton. The candidate, if they really want to
:02:22. > :02:26.win, is Marco Rubio. The man with the aspirational story. If that were
:02:27. > :02:33.Marco Rubio, he could really damage Hillary Clinton by saying, this is
:02:34. > :02:38.my story, very American story, when the immigrant, let you know full,
:02:39. > :02:43.and say, isn't there a sense of entitlement about you? He would
:02:44. > :02:47.certainly be the one to play against Hillary Clinton's legacy, the
:02:48. > :02:56.insider stuff, the sleaze and things that Donald Trump and others have
:02:57. > :03:06.tried to stick on Hillary Clinton. It has been seen that Trump has been
:03:07. > :03:10.able to get traction with voters. Marco Rubio needs to be put in that
:03:11. > :03:18.sort of template, he is much more of a centrist in a very skewed
:03:19. > :03:24.political system in the US at the moment. As outsiders, we can see
:03:25. > :03:33.Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton. We almost think that Hillary Clinton
:03:34. > :03:43.and Jed Bish and more centrist. -- Jeb Bush. Donald Trump has said that
:03:44. > :03:48.he would not be a third-party candidate. But he could say, I will
:03:49. > :03:55.run anyway. I do not think so. If he does badly in the first round of
:03:56. > :04:03.primaries, he will pull out. He is a complete fraud. He does not even
:04:04. > :04:10.have a campaign headquarters, it is apparently empty. It is apparently
:04:11. > :04:12.like a tax dodge company. He has a Twitter feed! He has this
:04:13. > :04:16.sensational media coverage because he is a reality TV star. He does not
:04:17. > :04:25.understand the policies of the party that he has chosen as a vehicle for
:04:26. > :04:32.his ambitions. Some of his policies are to the left of Obama, on health
:04:33. > :04:37.care, for example. If the Republicans have their head screwed
:04:38. > :04:44.on, it will be Marco Rubio. He looks like tomorrow, not yesterday. The
:04:45. > :04:46.thing about Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton running against each other
:04:47. > :04:51.is that it looks like two dynasties from yesterday, which would be
:04:52. > :04:57.depressing for the electorate. Marco Rubio could be the President Obama
:04:58. > :05:00.of the Republican party. He had this wonderful speech about, my father
:05:01. > :05:06.was a bartender and my mother was made and now I am running for
:05:07. > :05:14.president. It brings tears to your eyes. He looks like the face of a
:05:15. > :05:18.new generation, and he is Hispanic, which is good for the Republicans
:05:19. > :05:24.who tend to badly. Calling him centrist would probably do damage to
:05:25. > :05:27.him in Republican eyes. It is not so much a question of centrist as
:05:28. > :05:31.looking like today rather than yesterday. That will be tremendously
:05:32. > :05:37.important. Hillary Clinton could be made to look like an antique by
:05:38. > :05:44.Marco Rubio. I agree with what you said. But he is against abortion,
:05:45. > :05:52.gay marriage. He is Catholic and that could play against him in
:05:53. > :05:58.California and New York. It could play very well with the Republican
:05:59. > :06:02.electorate. With the grassroots. The Hispanic population as the boat, the
:06:03. > :06:08.Cubans and Mexicans are very different. The Mexicans do not like
:06:09. > :06:17.the Cubans because the Cubans feel a bit superior, and they could very
:06:18. > :06:23.well stay Democrat. Who's going to win? People are not talking about
:06:24. > :06:34.the fact that Donald Trump has struck a cord with an electorate. He
:06:35. > :06:36.has struck a chord, his pulling numbers are incredibly high
:06:37. > :06:42.nationally. He has struck a chord because of the state of the US
:06:43. > :06:48.economy, the shrinking middle class, the blue-collar workers who feel
:06:49. > :06:57.left paint as the result of these growing inequalities between rich
:06:58. > :06:59.and poor. But how does he connect with the lower-middle-class, the
:07:00. > :07:03.blue-collar worker? It is interesting that in passing, until
:07:04. > :07:07.very recently, was also doing very well. The unifying threat is that
:07:08. > :07:14.they are dictators to the Washington system. Unpolished. He throws this
:07:15. > :07:21.stuff out there. How much is about his policies? You can say brash,
:07:22. > :07:25.ugly things and people say, yes, I want people to see that, it is
:07:26. > :07:32.normalising it. It is antiestablishment. You have the same
:07:33. > :07:36.politicians in Europe. The same problem, the same blue-collar
:07:37. > :07:42.worker. But the idea of an American politician to rescue us from
:07:43. > :07:48.politics as usual has been going back decades, they tend not to win.
:07:49. > :07:53.That is right. He particularly is so ugly and unpleasant. He bears a
:07:54. > :07:57.striking physical resemblance to Mistley me and some food grass! Do
:07:58. > :08:08.something about that which will be repellent enough -- Mussolini. The
:08:09. > :08:13.European referendum, will it take place this year and do you think it
:08:14. > :08:17.is a sham? Yes, to both questions. It is intended to be a sham. Whether
:08:18. > :08:22.or not it will actually come off as a sham depends to some extent on the
:08:23. > :08:28.media criticism and the media analysis of what Cameron is trying
:08:29. > :08:33.to do. The diplomatic game that is being played where, on the one hand,
:08:34. > :08:36.we are Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande seem to be offering
:08:37. > :08:41.concessions and making that call diplomatic overtures to him is
:08:42. > :08:45.immediately blown out of the water by them saying precisely the
:08:46. > :08:51.opposite when you ask a specific question, for example that it is not
:08:52. > :08:54.acceptable for us to discriminate against EU incoming workers and the
:08:55. > :09:00.resident population. The next day they say, a four-year delay in the
:09:01. > :09:06.right to collect automatic benefits would not be acceptable but the
:09:07. > :09:10.three your delay would be. What? Either it is an acceptable to
:09:11. > :09:13.discriminate or it is not. It is becoming nonsense. How we're going
:09:14. > :09:18.to make head or tail of what has been asked in this referendum is the
:09:19. > :09:25.real question. Who was at that said, if you'd like my principles I can
:09:26. > :09:29.get some new ones? The voice of Britain beside me, come weakly
:09:30. > :09:37.ungrateful. European partners willing to help Britain, they feel
:09:38. > :09:44.strongly about the freedom. Personally I think, it should be the
:09:45. > :09:52.rule, it is that you belong to the EU. Back yes. And think that the
:09:53. > :09:56.referendum will take place. I think that Britain will stay in the EU not
:09:57. > :10:04.by emotion but by reason, because of jobs, economy, because the
:10:05. > :10:11.anti-Europeans are divided between nasty Ukip and also some part of the
:10:12. > :10:19.more conventional right-wing conservatives. Also Europe want
:10:20. > :10:26.Britain to stay in. We are stronger with Britain. This being said, if
:10:27. > :10:32.Richard Lees the EU -- if Britain leaves the EU, you can continue to
:10:33. > :10:41.prosper but it will become a dwarf among nations. No, a dwarf among
:10:42. > :10:44.nations. That is going to be the argument. Welcome to Dateline London
:10:45. > :10:49.for the next few years! He resist the thought, which is that supposing
:10:50. > :11:02.Mr Cameron wins the referendum but when is it 55-45, and never-ending?
:11:03. > :11:06.Will it on and on? It is looking a bit like the Scottish referendum,
:11:07. > :11:09.which you thought would pick the issue to bed but it continues to
:11:10. > :11:20.fester and sports continue. What the Shan is -- sham is is that this
:11:21. > :11:23.issue of benefits would make a difference, but it will not. The
:11:24. > :11:27.minimum wage will be hiked here, that will be as much of a draw.
:11:28. > :11:35.Ultimately, the number of people who will be voting in the EU referendum
:11:36. > :11:38.based on what deal Cameron comes back with is relatively small and
:11:39. > :11:50.people will vote with gut instincts. May be about immigration, or my job?
:11:51. > :11:57.They will be mobilised. It will depend on how the campaign is played
:11:58. > :12:04.out, but most people will be voting on gut. I read British and European
:12:05. > :12:07.or JVC ex-dash-mac or do we see ourselves as a Welsh and British
:12:08. > :12:10.English and British and that is it. I do not think there are that many
:12:11. > :12:14.voters looking at three or four years and what it means for
:12:15. > :12:20.benefits, it is more of an image of what it means to be European. Janet,
:12:21. > :12:23.you would not agree with where he is coming down on this, but they
:12:24. > :12:27.believe that William Hague had only good nerve, which says that the
:12:28. > :12:34.future of the United Kingdom is at stake here because Scotland would
:12:35. > :12:39.leave if there is a no fault? Ally William is a friend of mine but I do
:12:40. > :12:42.not think that that is a sound argument. For one thing, it should
:12:43. > :12:45.not be the deciding factor. The break-up of the United Kingdom does
:12:46. > :12:49.not depend on way or another on the break-up of the EU. Scotland thinks
:12:50. > :12:52.that it could pick in separate application for membership, which
:12:53. > :13:00.would take years to go through and that that would cause a break-up,
:13:01. > :13:11.that is far-fetched. It would speed up... We will work on them, open the
:13:12. > :13:14.doors... But do you think Scotland will be economically viable? Will
:13:15. > :13:21.they bend the rules like they bent them for Italy? We will help them to
:13:22. > :13:30.be viable! The British give them help anyway. Exactly. The other
:13:31. > :13:37.issue is polling. The polls seem to say that most people will vote to
:13:38. > :13:42.stay in the EU, but again it is also fascinating how this polling is
:13:43. > :13:45.being done. It goes back to the argument about younger people.
:13:46. > :13:55.Younger people will want to stay, people taking part in these debates
:13:56. > :14:06.online seem to be overwhelmingly pro-Europe, unlike those on
:14:07. > :14:10.landline... The older voters, you have to give them a disproportionate
:14:11. > :14:16.voice in the polling if you are to get an accurate result. Jeremy
:14:17. > :14:21.Corbyn in 2016, a big test for him. Some of the papers are saying he has
:14:22. > :14:24.got to get 35% for Labour in the May elections otherwise he will be in
:14:25. > :14:27.trouble. Do you buy any of that audience think he will be the leader
:14:28. > :14:35.of the Labour Party until he decides he does not want to be, or 2020? I
:14:36. > :14:39.think he is here to stay. He has such a control over the party
:14:40. > :14:44.machine that I do not think... Unless they can figure out a way to
:14:45. > :14:51.exclude him from a new nomination contest... He would not get enough
:14:52. > :14:56.support from Parliamentary Labour MPs at this point, but they cannot
:14:57. > :15:02.exclude him. There is this legal no man's land. I think that he is here
:15:03. > :15:05.to stay. The more interesting question is what happens to the
:15:06. > :15:10.Conservative Party leadership as the result of the EU referendum. But as
:15:11. > :15:14.Boris Johnson come down on this because he is still straddling the
:15:15. > :15:18.fence. Theresa May and some of the other big hitters. What does that do
:15:19. > :15:22.the George Osborne's prospect of taking over the Conservative Party?
:15:23. > :15:29.That is the interesting space to watch. I agree that he will stay
:15:30. > :15:40.because he has been elected. Labour in general is much nicer and kinder
:15:41. > :15:43.to the leaders. A lot of this is going to be affected by his
:15:44. > :15:47.vindictive cabinet reshuffle, which apparently is due in the next few
:15:48. > :15:51.weeks. If he really does what he is rumoured to be doing, and sax Hilary
:15:52. > :15:58.Benn, his father was the tenet figure for the Labour left, if he
:15:59. > :16:06.pushes out and he notes and insults three or four of the major figures
:16:07. > :16:15.who on the serial vote, that is bad news for him. Let us move on to the
:16:16. > :16:19.Middle East. This weekend, for instance, we have had a concrete
:16:20. > :16:35.example of the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran over the execution
:16:36. > :16:42.of a highly regarded cleric in Iran. The rivalry is bear. It predates
:16:43. > :16:48.2016 for sure. Some people talk about the Cold War. In some cases,
:16:49. > :16:53.the Middle East is a hot war now. People see it as Saudi Arabia and
:16:54. > :16:57.Iran, but the ramp so many more nuances and local fights. Some
:16:58. > :17:01.people are on the ground trying to get quick wins and manipulate the
:17:02. > :17:06.divisions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, but also between Turkey and
:17:07. > :17:10.Iran, the sectarian lines. But there are local warlords who are making a
:17:11. > :17:17.lot of money and are invested in the battles going on in Iraq, Syria,
:17:18. > :17:20.Lebanon, and so on. We will see more of these battle ground is being
:17:21. > :17:30.exacerbated by the politics, is also not being controlled so directly as
:17:31. > :17:33.people see in -- as people assume. The local dynamics taking place are
:17:34. > :17:39.significant and should not be overlooked. This year, Isis, it is
:17:40. > :17:45.on everyone's mind. They are seen as an enemy for all of these players.
:17:46. > :17:51.However, who is actually helping behind-the-scenes to push out Isis,
:17:52. > :17:58.thinking that they can use them. That card has gone out of control.
:17:59. > :18:02.In Iraq, we see the battle for power politically. The Iraqi army are
:18:03. > :18:10.being put at the front, not a militia force supported from Iran.
:18:11. > :18:15.That was significant. The Iraqi prime minister has said that they
:18:16. > :18:18.will end Isis's presence in Iraq by 2016. That is a very big commitment.
:18:19. > :18:24.They have made commitments in the past that they cannot keep up with.
:18:25. > :18:28.Syria, political talks are starting in January. These will be
:18:29. > :18:33.significant. We have a political process when it comes to Yemen. Will
:18:34. > :18:36.any of these processes bring results that are political rather than
:18:37. > :18:42.military? The bloodshed could go on for the next ten years. If everybody
:18:43. > :18:46.connected with Isis were to disappear, to be jailed or bombed or
:18:47. > :18:51.whatever. If Islamic State was never mentioned ever again, they would
:18:52. > :18:57.still be people, al-Qaeda and Boko Haram and other organisations who
:18:58. > :19:05.have the same basic ideas. Can they be isolated? Is it geographical
:19:06. > :19:10.entity? They are keen to establish a separate caliphate. At the hidden
:19:11. > :19:13.dynamic for the West particularly as the fact that the Saudis are being
:19:14. > :19:23.very helpful to the West by pumping out oil and keeping the oil price
:19:24. > :19:28.low, but from a global and political point of view, Russia's economy will
:19:29. > :19:31.collapse if the oil price keeps falling. It is going through the
:19:32. > :19:36.floor. That has very serious consequences. That means Russia can
:19:37. > :19:42.be put back in its box, and that is something Europe and America will
:19:43. > :19:47.see is a great advantage. However misjudged the Saudis's actions may
:19:48. > :19:54.be, it is very important to the West. Undermining the price of oil
:19:55. > :19:59.also damages I saw. I think the main issue will come back in 2016,
:20:00. > :20:04.Israel-Palestinian conflict, which has been put on the back burner with
:20:05. > :20:09.Syria and Iraq. I share your view about this one. It is there and it
:20:10. > :20:13.is completely block. There is no solution is here in this sort of
:20:14. > :20:21.desperation on the one side and colonies Asian on the other side, it
:20:22. > :20:36.is creating a powder keg. You'll map it is largely irrelevant to this
:20:37. > :20:41.sunny-Shia -- Sunni-Shia conflict. There is one year left of the Obama
:20:42. > :20:48.presidency. Some believe that that will be as it has in the past. Back
:20:49. > :20:56.to the oil price, in order to get some sort of stability, peace, end
:20:57. > :21:01.to the conflict in Syria, you need a stable Saudi Arabia. Oil at $35 per
:21:02. > :21:09.barrel is not helping stability in Saudi Arabia. But all of these
:21:10. > :21:18.powers on to realign the power struggle based on the price of oil.
:21:19. > :21:24.It is not set up for oil at 35. There are a series of payments to
:21:25. > :21:31.keep peace domestically. Why are they doing this? Why are they not
:21:32. > :21:41.rationing oil? They want to kill off she'll oil production in the US. --
:21:42. > :21:46.shale oil in the US. They are very aware of the impact to the sapping
:21:47. > :21:49.the Miss -- having domestically. They believe that they can manage it
:21:50. > :22:03.for the next 12 months, I do not think we will see it at $35 for the
:22:04. > :22:18.long-term. Some predictions. In 2050 we did not smile a lot. 2016, the
:22:19. > :22:22.euro, -- euros, Belgium is the favourite, which is nice. Terrorism
:22:23. > :22:30.will become part of life, because the thing about Paris, they were off
:22:31. > :22:41.the radar, these people. The loan will from now is the main threat --
:22:42. > :22:52.lone wolf. It is important that the stupid French
:22:53. > :23:13.plan is to continue to enjoy... This has been a year of insanity. Jeremy
:23:14. > :23:15.Corbyn has become the leader of the Labour Party, Donald Trump is a
:23:16. > :23:19.Republican contender. All bets are off. I have a warning. It is in line
:23:20. > :23:26.with what has just been said. There is an idea that we will be taken
:23:27. > :23:33.over by an illiberal paranoia. That is a terrifying prospect for the
:23:34. > :23:36.West. For 2015, if you had said that three of the greatest cities in the
:23:37. > :23:41.United Kingdom, Manchester, Leeds and Europe, would all be flooded,
:23:42. > :23:45.people would think you are mad. That is one of the big stories, what we
:23:46. > :23:50.do about flooding and environmental issues. Yes, we started looking
:23:51. > :24:00.about what would happen in Paris and there was this agreement on the 2
:24:01. > :24:04.degrees. Climate change is here. We are longer talking about the future,
:24:05. > :24:09.it is about mitigating and what the future steps can be. We have seen
:24:10. > :24:12.the crazy snowstorms in the middle East, where you have refugees,
:24:13. > :24:20.another issue that is going to continue. The ski resorts in the
:24:21. > :24:23.Alps have been rather dry. Whereas in Lebanon, they are snowed under.
:24:24. > :24:28.The refugee camps cannot sustain that any more in both Jordan and
:24:29. > :24:34.Lebanon and beyond. In Turkey there has been a snowstorm. There has been
:24:35. > :24:42.a mass movement of people because of very difficult conditions. The
:24:43. > :24:50.Middle East, Africa, Africa is under Licht. -- overlooked. The real
:24:51. > :24:54.challenge is making sure that liberal values can stand strong in
:24:55. > :25:02.the face of terrorists, because that is when the win. When they really
:25:03. > :25:06.were in is when those values actually -- when they really win is
:25:07. > :25:12.when those values actually and remained. We could see the Euro
:25:13. > :25:17.crisis rewritten ugly head again. Greece is being asked to do the near
:25:18. > :25:23.impossible. We will see what: stability in Spain, that could hold
:25:24. > :25:27.Spain off track of economic reforms. Economic league, you could see an
:25:28. > :25:34.emerging market debt crisis caused by the sort of pincer action of
:25:35. > :25:42.slowing growth in China, increased interest rates in the US affecting
:25:43. > :25:46.them. I am going to put my money on Hillary Clinton. I think she has
:25:47. > :25:55.raised $100 million, I will put my money on her. Unless Marco Rubio
:25:56. > :26:02.wins the Republican nomination. You think it is Marco Rubio? If the
:26:03. > :26:10.eurozone imports, the referendum question will become an irrelevance.
:26:11. > :26:17.It will not! It will do well, the usual, because it is going up.
:26:18. > :26:21.Pakistan and India relations restored, that is another story. We
:26:22. > :26:26.will come back later in the year-end check is right. -- and check who is
:26:27. > :26:28.right. That's it for Dateline London's
:26:29. > :26:30.first edition of 2016. You can comment on the programme
:26:31. > :26:32.on Twitter - @gavinesler. And we hope to see you at
:26:33. > :26:36.the same time next week