:00:24. > :00:29.Deal or no deal - Britain and the EU.
:00:30. > :00:33.And Syria's peace talks collapse - so how far will $10
:00:34. > :00:36.billion in humanitarian aid go to ease the pain?
:00:37. > :00:40.My guests today are Jef McAllister, who is an American writer,
:00:41. > :00:42.and broadcaster Maria Margaronis of The Nation.
:00:43. > :00:51.Britain's attempts to renegotiate terms of membership
:00:52. > :00:54.of the European Union are - depending on your views -
:00:55. > :00:57.edging towards a successful conclusion, or something of a farce.
:00:58. > :00:59.This week David Cameron talked up his claim of success.
:01:00. > :01:02.But how close is he to convincing British people to vote Yes?
:01:03. > :01:05.And how far will the obvious divisions in his party last,
:01:06. > :01:19.let us begin with David Cameron in Europe, he was in Poland and
:01:20. > :01:23.Denmark, talking to different forum leaders and you have just come back
:01:24. > :01:28.from Hungary. How is this initiative coming down? The Prime Minister of
:01:29. > :01:33.Hungary was very pleased that his visit, the only Western leader to
:01:34. > :01:41.visit him lately. Vladimir Putin has seen him once or twice. It has given
:01:42. > :01:46.him a kind of respectability which is very useful because he has been
:01:47. > :01:51.spearheading the European anti-refugee drive, really. And the
:01:52. > :01:56.fact that Cameron saw him has boosted his popularity. He has been
:01:57. > :02:08.using the refugee and immigration issue very much to push back the
:02:09. > :02:11.threat from the far right party. Hungary is interesting because you
:02:12. > :02:16.don't see any refugee anywhere in Budapest. It is one of the issues in
:02:17. > :02:25.the media and the news and felt like a distillation of your's fear of
:02:26. > :02:30.this thread. -- Europe's. It has closed the route. The first country
:02:31. > :02:34.to build a fence on the Croatian border and that also put up legal
:02:35. > :02:44.fences by declaring Serbia the third country to live -- returned refugees
:02:45. > :02:53.to. Is there a sense that European Union itself has been shaken to its
:02:54. > :02:59.foundation? Putting offences? That is antithetical to what the EU is
:03:00. > :03:01.supposed to be about? They Hungary and historians said we are the
:03:02. > :03:06.grave-diggers for the European Union, he meant the European
:03:07. > :03:10.taxpayers are basically funding the government, which is siphoning the
:03:11. > :03:14.funding to cronies and supporters while undermining all the liberal
:03:15. > :03:21.principles upon which the union was supposed to be built. This news will
:03:22. > :03:27.be good, strengthening the belief that the players should not be in
:03:28. > :03:32.the European Union? You could say this news means we have to think
:03:33. > :03:38.very carefully about what we want the EU to be at work to make it into
:03:39. > :03:42.that. Is that the case? We know about the domestic politics of
:03:43. > :03:47.Britain but David Cameron has hit upon a very rich seam within the EU,
:03:48. > :03:52.that it is not working for Greece, particularly well, for Hungary or
:03:53. > :03:57.different countries. Is that part of what we are seeing? It doesn't take
:03:58. > :04:01.a genius to see there are huge problems in Europe. My quarrel with
:04:02. > :04:07.the approach of David Cameron is either not think that wasting
:04:08. > :04:11.everybody's time pretending to re-negotiate is any solution to any
:04:12. > :04:18.of the real problems. It does not solve either the questions of the
:04:19. > :04:24.euro, the and refugee crisis. Nothing that we have seen will solve
:04:25. > :04:31.the refugee crisis. And I would agree that unless Europe goes back,
:04:32. > :04:34.goes back to operating in concert, which Britain is undermining, it
:04:35. > :04:39.will be unable to deal with the refugee crisis, which will get
:04:40. > :04:44.worse. I didn't think Britain is helping at all and it is blaming the
:04:45. > :04:48.wrong things. The president of the European Parliament said something
:04:49. > :04:53.similar, but Britain can be a bit of an attempt and some people say they
:04:54. > :05:01.don't want to be part of the union, so go. People see the island
:05:02. > :05:07.offshore to Europe and the island is an uptight but the confident! The
:05:08. > :05:11.mentality of the British, you have to start with where they are
:05:12. > :05:15.located, they have it within them to keep distance from the continent and
:05:16. > :05:19.it is amazing that they have been part of the European project in the
:05:20. > :05:23.first place. But this enterprise didn't start with a demand from the
:05:24. > :05:28.European people, it was Cameron 's failure to control the provisional
:05:29. > :05:36.wing of his own party. I recognise that, but he has two continued to
:05:37. > :05:42.negotiate. With this referendum and the month leading up, through public
:05:43. > :05:49.opinion. You have to seen -- be seen to be the go I will doubt he will
:05:50. > :05:53.have a good deal, it is very slipshod and unsatisfactory and
:05:54. > :05:56.while there is a lot of scepticism, there is also scepticism about what
:05:57. > :06:00.happens when we're out. Hamlet said the fear of something after death,
:06:01. > :06:08.the unknown country, will make us better the bills rather than going
:06:09. > :06:18.to unknown ones. Are the ills that come from Brussels as bad for the
:06:19. > :06:24.British? That would be a vote on behalf of Europe! A Danish prince!
:06:25. > :06:28.You would expect it in these great events but according to the opinion
:06:29. > :06:34.polls, which we know are virtually infallible in Britain, the out
:06:35. > :06:41.campaign is nine points ahead? It is too early, it is bubbly not a
:06:42. > :06:47.realistic... I would agree that with Thomas, the fundamental mentality of
:06:48. > :06:52.Britain is keeping that Napoleon and Hitler and is no affection for
:06:53. > :06:54.Europe, that is evident. You don't seek European flags around Britain
:06:55. > :06:59.and win their next to the national flag all over Europe. It is not the
:07:00. > :07:12.same thing. But Cameron has negotiated something, sceptic MPs
:07:13. > :07:15.called it polishing to! But the European recruit the economy is not
:07:16. > :07:21.doing badly, the government is more or less going to unite around
:07:22. > :07:28.whatever this thing is and the fear and complexity of trying to get out
:07:29. > :07:32.is so overwhelming and I think we are not Ukip voters around this
:07:33. > :07:37.table and although I don't feel much enthusiasm for the staying in the
:07:38. > :07:42.vote, I didn't feel the anger and frustration with hordes of migrants,
:07:43. > :07:46.although it has been around in the past, I just do not feel that cannot
:07:47. > :07:51.be conquered with a smart campaign and sceptics are divided amongst
:07:52. > :07:57.themselves. David Cameron has been lucky with his enemies, the out
:07:58. > :08:00.campaign has various names and there are three or four, depending on how
:08:01. > :08:05.you look at it, it is not a coordinated campaign? What happens
:08:06. > :08:12.if he wins? Will not silence the Eurosceptics? You can never really
:08:13. > :08:21.but what can they do? What if it is 51%? It has to shut them up for a
:08:22. > :08:26.little while. You might be sceptical because I have talked to some people
:08:27. > :08:28.who are very passionate about leaving within the Conservative
:08:29. > :08:36.party and they say that this will continue. It has continued all the
:08:37. > :08:40.time I have been looking at this. We have had a referendum before, it did
:08:41. > :08:45.not close the issue, these people will not be satisfied with any
:08:46. > :08:50.negotiation, which is why the whole thing is an exercise in shadow play
:08:51. > :08:54.but you must be careful about making assumptions about British sentiment.
:08:55. > :08:58.What is Britain? If you look at Scottish sentiment on Europe it is
:08:59. > :09:04.different. It is an English problem and it is not a big image problem.
:09:05. > :09:09.If you look at the demographic, younger people are much more
:09:10. > :09:13.pro-Europe than older people. What problem is this referendum designed
:09:14. > :09:20.to solve? Is entirely a Tory Party thing. It is partly symbolic. Even
:09:21. > :09:26.if this is settled, not simple as well attached to something else, it
:09:27. > :09:32.is that Little Britain mentality. Or is it about making our own laws in
:09:33. > :09:40.our own country and should not be a supranational body? Like Doctor Who,
:09:41. > :09:44.the Tory party has got two Hearts, cultural Conservatives and
:09:45. > :09:55.independent sovereignty and then those economic interests. The other
:09:56. > :09:59.supranational entities... The Island race, I know British people talk
:10:00. > :10:03.about this and you are a great observer of culture but British
:10:04. > :10:08.people over 200 years have mostly got exercised when they feel utterly
:10:09. > :10:12.excluded from Europe by Napoleon and cursor will helm and Hitler, those
:10:13. > :10:15.were the moments when the British people organise themselves because
:10:16. > :10:19.they had been excluded from this massive continent. The balance of
:10:20. > :10:23.power means you want a controlling input in Europe and you want to be
:10:24. > :10:26.present and that is what I think will eventually win the day for
:10:27. > :10:31.David Cameron, staying in the union will give them the voice they need
:10:32. > :10:36.to be an important part -- party for reform and improvement. I slightly
:10:37. > :10:41.disagree with respect in that it is just a problem with the Conservative
:10:42. > :10:46.party. The British people as a whole are exercised and worried about
:10:47. > :10:50.immigration and Britain is the victim of its own popularity, there
:10:51. > :10:53.will be continuing migration into the Labour market in this country
:10:54. > :10:58.and with the improved earnings that will come into effect later this
:10:59. > :11:03.spring, it will absolutely continue to be a magnet for people to arrive
:11:04. > :11:05.and so this is a bigger issue and the Tory party needs to deal with
:11:06. > :11:08.it. Let us move on... Ever since the leadership
:11:09. > :11:10.of Deng Xiao Ping and the crackdown on student protests
:11:11. > :11:12.in Tiananmen Square in 1989, there has been a basic
:11:13. > :11:14.bargain in China. will pursue the line that to "get
:11:15. > :11:18.rich is glorious," but the people of China should not push too hard
:11:19. > :11:21.for basic freedoms or engage Now China's economy is in a mess
:11:22. > :11:25.and writers, publishers and artists are all feeling the crushing weight
:11:26. > :11:34.of state repression. Are those things connected? They
:11:35. > :11:39.are, what happens when the government does not deliver its
:11:40. > :11:43.side? China has had 30 years of catch-up growth, like other Asian
:11:44. > :11:49.tigers, based on investment, cheap Labour and exports. And that model
:11:50. > :11:53.is exhausted, but runs out. And then China has to exercise this tricky
:11:54. > :11:57.transition to a higher value economy, it has run out of cheap
:11:58. > :12:04.Labour. But the same time, avoiding the middle income trap. Not
:12:05. > :12:07.everybody manages that. In previous examples that has been increased
:12:08. > :12:12.pressure to broaden political participation, whatever you call it.
:12:13. > :12:16.We were moving in that direction until 2009 and the government has
:12:17. > :12:20.moved firmly back the other way so we have an increase in all manner of
:12:21. > :12:26.political oppression and closing down civil society, managing the
:12:27. > :12:28.image of the government through censorship and building its own
:12:29. > :12:34.media and pushing its own message and Hong Kong is a problem because
:12:35. > :12:42.Hong Kong had retained that freedom to say things that could not be
:12:43. > :12:45.saved in mainland China and sends 2013, the party has decided that
:12:46. > :12:49.Hong Kong has to be shut down and brought into line. People
:12:50. > :12:53.disappeared and ended up in mainland China? A British subject was
:12:54. > :12:59.kidnapped from Hong Kong and appeared, is facing charges in
:13:00. > :13:05.mainland China, a Swedish citizen, Hong Kong Chinese but a Swedish
:13:06. > :13:10.citizen from his holiday home in Thailand, another journalist from
:13:11. > :13:17.Thailand so this is international kidnapping! And Western governments
:13:18. > :13:20.have been pretty lenient about this, the British government has not been
:13:21. > :13:27.going in for their citizens. Or the world media. Every talk about
:13:28. > :13:32.sovereign rights... One could say that is because people particularly
:13:33. > :13:35.understand in the United States that our economies are so interlinked
:13:36. > :13:38.that anything that happens in China closes major problems for the United
:13:39. > :13:47.States, in particular, and also Europe. That is right. And China has
:13:48. > :13:52.been smart in the kind of repression that it is exciting, it reminds me a
:13:53. > :13:58.little bit of the way that Vladimir Putin has done things, shutting down
:13:59. > :14:02.NGOs, unbelievable propaganda, lots of investment in burnishing the
:14:03. > :14:07.image, knowing if you throw your weight around people will pay
:14:08. > :14:13.attention. And maybe not kidnapping Americans, at least yet! This will
:14:14. > :14:18.be an irritant that will keep going, but it has so far been managed. We
:14:19. > :14:23.will likely see the US may be getting angrier if this squirt site
:14:24. > :14:28.in great power tactics in the South China Sea and Taiwan and the
:14:29. > :14:32.bellicosity you expect of countries under threat who want to burnish
:14:33. > :14:42.their own image by showing how tough they are. Patriotism over islands,
:14:43. > :14:46.which does... And other places where this time of thing is likely to be
:14:47. > :14:50.shown and struck before the Americans, they have shown they are
:14:51. > :14:56.willing to make more investment in the military and they're trying to
:14:57. > :15:03.burnish alliances with China and others. Is it because we don't know
:15:04. > :15:08.just how bad the problems are? Trillions of dollars in a black:
:15:09. > :15:12.China because has been in edition of the stock market and although it has
:15:13. > :15:16.moved towards a capitalist leaning economy it doesn't have the openings
:15:17. > :15:20.and the rigour and ability to check what this figure is actually are?
:15:21. > :15:26.Most Western governments have been interested in striking up deals with
:15:27. > :15:30.China to make sure their industries can lodge themselves and do business
:15:31. > :15:34.in China rather than looking behind the scenes and finding out what
:15:35. > :15:39.really goes on. As long as they have what they think are profitable
:15:40. > :15:43.deals, look at George Osborne, they will parade any new trade deals that
:15:44. > :15:46.have been cleansed from China to say that set, and we don't learn
:15:47. > :15:53.anything more about the nature our partner. There is growing alarm,
:15:54. > :15:58.people have been slow to recognise how worried the Chinese are about
:15:59. > :16:03.their own economy. It was called unbalanced, uncoordinated in 2007
:16:04. > :16:07.and then the Olympics and then that financial crisis, at which point,
:16:08. > :16:11.instead of moving away from investment lead over capacity, the
:16:12. > :16:19.Chinese through a massive stimulus package at their own economy, 7% of
:16:20. > :16:24.it in local government debt, the so-called shadow banking sector.
:16:25. > :16:32.These are coming home to roost. China's debt to GDP ratio is worse
:16:33. > :16:37.than Greece and Germany after the war, it is really rather serious.
:16:38. > :16:42.How unsafe is Western investment in China? Western investment is going
:16:43. > :16:47.down very quickly, because the returns are very low in China and
:16:48. > :16:52.when the other thing to watch about concerning China is how many of the
:16:53. > :16:57.rich said they want to leave and how much capital flight there is,
:16:58. > :17:00.running at 1 billion every month. And a picture about effective
:17:01. > :17:06.devaluations and deflation which leads to a worldwide recession. I
:17:07. > :17:10.was going to ask Isabel, in terms of effects on the rest of the world, we
:17:11. > :17:16.have seen the British Steel industry more or less shut down because of
:17:17. > :17:21.competition from China. What are the long-term effects? Others have it
:17:22. > :17:26.worse, Brazil is in recession, so all of the commodity suppliers,
:17:27. > :17:32.people who were supplying the old glory manufacturing economy are
:17:33. > :17:36.really hurting. That is energy, Roger Ailes, steel commodities,
:17:37. > :17:40.Australia, Brazil, Nigeria, they have lost that market and they're
:17:41. > :17:46.having a very hard landing. For the rest of the world, China, partly
:17:47. > :17:50.because of the stimulus package had its failure to make this transition,
:17:51. > :17:55.was a big factor in dragging the rest of the world out of the last
:17:56. > :17:59.crisis. There is no engine any more, the engine in China is spluttering
:18:00. > :18:01.so we should be careful. Let us move on...
:18:02. > :18:02.Syria's peace talks collapsed this week -
:18:03. > :18:07.pledged to raise $10 billion in humanitarian aid for refugees.
:18:08. > :18:10.However welcome the money may be, is it also an admission
:18:11. > :18:13.that the civil war in Syria will last for years to come,
:18:14. > :18:17.has no obvious solution and may even get worse?
:18:18. > :18:22.The news appears to be that it is getting worse, even more refugees
:18:23. > :18:28.coming up from Aleppo, Russians apparently bombing in a way where
:18:29. > :18:33.they are bombing civilian positions and Turkey is very anxious about
:18:34. > :18:35.this. It could spread? You can understand why President Obama
:18:36. > :18:42.wanted to stay out of this year's ago. We can see the fruits of having
:18:43. > :18:47.done nothing. Even if having done something may not have done anything
:18:48. > :18:53.particularly good, this is a war against all, it is inside, it is
:18:54. > :19:00.Russia versus others, Sunni Muslims and Shia Muslims, and you cannot see
:19:01. > :19:03.how the normal tools of diplomacy and conferences and international
:19:04. > :19:10.consensus, which does not exist can accomplish anything so we're getting
:19:11. > :19:13.to see more voices in Washington and elsewhere talking about recognising
:19:14. > :19:18.that Assad probably has the strength to say, he has Russia behind him and
:19:19. > :19:23.we have to make a deal and silly trying to deal with what we have and
:19:24. > :19:27.build up from there. Maybe there can be some distribution of power with
:19:28. > :19:30.on clothes supported by international troops but we have to
:19:31. > :19:38.dollars that essentially Vladimir Putin as an easier job because he
:19:39. > :19:43.can just bomb and everybody else is trying to create something when
:19:44. > :19:49.nothing else can be created, nobody has any good solutions as far as I
:19:50. > :19:52.can see. It could get much worse, Turkey Ms Reid and so is about what
:19:53. > :19:59.is going on with its borders, it has a very strong army and who knows? We
:20:00. > :20:04.have Turkey, a member of Nato, rattling sabres with Russia and
:20:05. > :20:15.Saudi Arabia offering descendant ground troops -- to send in. And we
:20:16. > :20:18.have this massive flow of refugees destabilising all of Europe and
:20:19. > :20:22.threatening to tour the EU apart if some sort of agreement cannot be
:20:23. > :20:26.made. This one cannot be contained and it is very difficult to see any
:20:27. > :20:30.way of containing this apart from the way in which you describe, which
:20:31. > :20:36.is catastrophic, Assad is causing more... His government is what most
:20:37. > :20:45.people in Syria are fleeing from, as well as Isis. Very grim. You
:20:46. > :20:50.mentioned Isis. In the list of problems that we face, we have taken
:20:51. > :20:53.our eyes away from that. We're talking about Russia and Syria and
:20:54. > :20:58.bombing campaigns, they were meant to hit Isis on the head, what are
:20:59. > :21:03.they doing are? Creating a new stronghold in Libya so the next
:21:04. > :21:07.crisis already is on the horizon. And they will make that the hotbed
:21:08. > :21:10.of activities. The main culprit in all of this and I wish we could
:21:11. > :21:19.agree on that is Russia. Russia is playing a destructive game here,
:21:20. > :21:22.minding its own interests, bombing the anti-Assad forces and creating
:21:23. > :21:28.this exodus which is creating ever more problems for Western Europeans
:21:29. > :21:31.so ever since that the Russian leader is rubbing his hands in glee.
:21:32. > :21:37.Creating problems for Europe and getting his own back for sanctions
:21:38. > :21:40.were imposed on him. You have Russia with severe economic problems back
:21:41. > :21:44.home because of the Will Price and instead of looking at what is
:21:45. > :21:49.happening here, Putin is saying, look at what is happening over
:21:50. > :21:54.there. To rally the people? I do not think he is going to rally anyone
:21:55. > :21:59.other than the Assad regime, which has lost credibility. It is amazing
:22:00. > :22:04.to hear Jeff telling us what thinking is in Washington,
:22:05. > :22:08.supporting Assad, he is singularly responsible for destroying the whole
:22:09. > :22:12.country. No one has been able to get rid of them. And they cannot see any
:22:13. > :22:17.way of doing that. We may see some astonishing dividends, jerky probing
:22:18. > :22:23.into Syria with troops on the ground, who knows? Can they absorb
:22:24. > :22:28.much of that? Aleppo, 2 million people, crowding the Borders?
:22:29. > :22:31.Something must give. If Turkey felt it had more support from Congress
:22:32. > :22:38.excelled here, it was not a return to the Ottoman times, this was being
:22:39. > :22:45.stabilised by people coming in, it could be the case that the United
:22:46. > :22:54.Nations should intervene? But what question arises? I do not descend
:22:55. > :23:00.from much of what Thomas says. About Assad. But remove Assad and what are
:23:01. > :23:06.you looking at? Not a functioning country or any alternative, you are
:23:07. > :23:11.looking again at a kind of long-term attempt to manage an inherently
:23:12. > :23:17.unstable situation. Who will take that long? Turkey? This programme
:23:18. > :23:21.has a tendency to attack political leaders but with this, I do detect a
:23:22. > :23:27.degree of sympathy for leaders in trying to figure out that which is
:23:28. > :23:36.perhaps unsolvable? And were not even journalists! Perhaps we have to
:23:37. > :23:42.have reasonable sympathy. The point by Maria, which is that this is not
:23:43. > :23:47.just a humanitarian catastrophe, for the people involved, it could shake
:23:48. > :23:55.apart the European Union because it is so destabilising? What I saw in
:23:56. > :23:59.Hungary was a total... Moving it in the direction which I think is very
:24:00. > :24:05.dangerous. When the French Prime Minister says we have to protect
:24:06. > :24:08.Europe, he means Schengen and open borders but when Victor Altman says
:24:09. > :24:13.that, he says we have to protect Christian Europe. I didn't want to
:24:14. > :24:19.live in Christian Europe, I want to live in a liberal, multicultural
:24:20. > :24:24.Europe. Even if the European Union manages to hold, and I think it
:24:25. > :24:28.will, it is a big elephant, it is moving in the direction which is not
:24:29. > :24:31.at all what many of us want. He suggest you cannot have peace talks
:24:32. > :24:39.with people fundamentally do not want to make peace with? You have to
:24:40. > :24:43.have at least enough people who want peace, to isolate those who do not,
:24:44. > :24:48.so we can get some sort of sustainable political situation but
:24:49. > :24:54.in terms of what this means for Europe, and the shortcomings of the
:24:55. > :24:58.political leadership, none of us can see this crisis going away for
:24:59. > :25:02.several years so many more people will come and to be erecting
:25:03. > :25:07.barriers and sticking your fingers in our ears and looking the other
:25:08. > :25:11.way is not a solution so the lack of political leadership on the question
:25:12. > :25:19.of refugees and mixed up with the question of migration is really what
:25:20. > :25:22.is destabilising, in my view. Strengthening the outside perimeter
:25:23. > :25:25.and borders of Europe is not erecting a fortress, that is
:25:26. > :25:29.something that needs to be done in our interests because we cannot go
:25:30. > :25:34.accepting any more refugees. Even Angela Merkel is under pressure to
:25:35. > :25:43.change your tune about coping, within three years these people can
:25:44. > :25:48.return to Syria. The instinct to listen to the most unhelpful parts
:25:49. > :25:52.of national constituencies is to elect national defences, and is what
:25:53. > :25:53.we're seeing, and that is not solving the problem. We will have to
:25:54. > :25:55.leave it there. That's it for Dateline
:25:56. > :25:57.London this week. You can comment on the
:25:58. > :25:59.programme on Twitter. We're back next week
:26:00. > :26:02.at the same time.