:00:23. > :00:24.Hello and welcome to Dateline London.
:00:25. > :00:29.A pause in fighting is obviously desirable in Syria
:00:30. > :00:31.Are Americans preparing for President Trump
:00:32. > :00:35.And David Cameron's European Tour - will it end in success?
:00:36. > :00:38.My guests today are Greg Katz of Associated Press,
:00:39. > :00:40.Rachel Shabi, who is a writer on Middle Eastern affairs,
:00:41. > :00:45.Abdel Bari Atwan who is an Arab journalist and broadcaster,
:00:46. > :00:58.Good to see you. A ceasefire of some kind in Syria within a week appears
:00:59. > :01:04.if not impossible, extremely difficult. Can it happen and how far
:01:05. > :01:09.is Islamic State capable of shifting attacks to Theatre, North Africa and
:01:10. > :01:15.perhaps Libya. Will a ceasefire happen? I am very sceptical here,
:01:16. > :01:19.maybe a season of hostilities to let human aid get through to the
:01:20. > :01:23.besieged area, maybe it is a possibility, but I believe the
:01:24. > :01:30.ceasefire is impossible, because the people who have the upper hand on
:01:31. > :01:36.the ground are really not included in this agreement, al-Nusra the
:01:37. > :01:40.grades and Islamic State or ices. -- al-Nusra brigades. On top of that
:01:41. > :01:45.president Assad of Syria said something alarming yesterday, he
:01:46. > :01:49.said negotiation to doesn't mean which should stop fighting
:01:50. > :01:54.terrorism, we will continue fighting terrorists all the time. So how can
:01:55. > :02:00.we have a ceasefire while the major players are not included in these
:02:01. > :02:05.talks, or president Assad is very determined to go ahead, and he
:02:06. > :02:09.gained a lot recently on Aleppo in particular, and the major drive of
:02:10. > :02:20.Russia and the Syrian president is to close the Syrian-Turkish border
:02:21. > :02:26.in order to prevent any supply, any logistics, weapons, Fighters, to
:02:27. > :02:32.join Islamic State and the al-Nusra brigades. I think maybe there is a
:02:33. > :02:37.hidden agreement to let the Syrian army and the Russians to continue
:02:38. > :02:41.the bombardment in order to seal the Turkish-Syrian border. Just one
:02:42. > :02:45.specific question, do you think the Russians could turn the tap off for
:02:46. > :02:50.Assad, stop supplying him and helping him with bombs, and control
:02:51. > :02:54.the fighting. If the fighting simply because the Russians are now bombing
:02:55. > :02:58.and apparently bombing civilians, although they deny it, everybody
:02:59. > :03:04.else thinks they are. Definitely, the Russians have the upper hand on
:03:05. > :03:10.Syria, definitely, after their military intervention, they change
:03:11. > :03:15.the equation. Assad now is some sort of a player in their hands, they say
:03:16. > :03:25.stop, he waltzed, continue, he continue. But if the Russians are
:03:26. > :03:28.serious about this Syrian armed opposition to have the upper hand in
:03:29. > :03:33.certain areas like Aleppo and adjacent to Turkey, this is the big
:03:34. > :03:36.question. I believe the Syrians are serious, Assad will continue and he
:03:37. > :03:43.will be a president and fight the next election, and will not let the
:03:44. > :03:47.Turks and Saudis succeed here. Also they were say to be Americans, we
:03:48. > :03:52.are very serious, if you want a third World War we are willing for
:03:53. > :04:00.it, but if you want to listen to us, we are ready to compromise. Rachel.
:04:01. > :04:03.I think what Russia has been doing has been spectacularly unhelpful,
:04:04. > :04:08.just when we thought the conflict in Syria couldn't get worse, it has,
:04:09. > :04:13.and it looks like it could get worse still. On the other hand it was
:04:14. > :04:18.foretold. When Bashar al-Assad says what he says, it is hard but no
:04:19. > :04:24.great surprise, this is the Civil War, a 0-sum game, he is backed by
:04:25. > :04:30.Russia and will get what he can get. The thing disturbing me is that we
:04:31. > :04:35.are still giving succour in this proxy war to an opposition that
:04:36. > :04:40.cannot win, there is no winning here. So what we are saying to them
:04:41. > :04:46.is, you can fight this honourable war, and there is no greater cause
:04:47. > :04:48.than trying to get rid of a brutal dictator who is murdering and
:04:49. > :04:53.torturing you, there is no greater cause than that, but if we say to
:04:54. > :04:58.them, you can fight that until there are no Syrians left, let's say that,
:04:59. > :05:05.because that's what the reality years. As abhorrent as Assad is, him
:05:06. > :05:09.stay in some kind of negotiated peace solution where he transitions
:05:10. > :05:14.out, and I am not sure the Russians are attached to him so much as
:05:15. > :05:20.having a stronghold in Syria. They are attached to their warships
:05:21. > :05:24.there. Exactly. That solution is completely repulsively but it is the
:05:25. > :05:29.best solution, and at some point we will have to well not about. I spoke
:05:30. > :05:37.to a senior British diplomat very familiar with the area, and he said
:05:38. > :05:40.he thinks the reason there is a call for a ceasefire, cessation of
:05:41. > :05:45.hostilities, whatever we call it, is that the West has run out of ideas
:05:46. > :05:55.and Russia is effectively making the run. One thing to ask yourself is
:05:56. > :05:59.what Russia actually can conceivably achieve or believes it can achieve.
:06:00. > :06:04.It certainly cannot believe, if it is rational, that it could achieve a
:06:05. > :06:07.situation whereby Assad takes back over Syria, that will not happen, he
:06:08. > :06:12.doesn't have the capacity or strength to keep it even if they
:06:13. > :06:15.bomb everybody out of all the areas. One of the reasons why Russia are so
:06:16. > :06:19.tragically wrong about the opposition is that they does require
:06:20. > :06:24.to be some strengthening of those forces who might be in contention to
:06:25. > :06:28.take over large parts of Syria, otherwise you absolutely do have
:06:29. > :06:32.nothing there. It reminds me a little about the arguments about the
:06:33. > :06:38.Spanish Civil War. Which forces you would like to back, Saudi forces,
:06:39. > :06:45.Turkish forces? I am not going to take part in this Socratic dialogue.
:06:46. > :06:52.If you want instant forces there are a lot of groups, some more powerful
:06:53. > :06:56.another's. Can they rule the country? No, the question is whether
:06:57. > :07:01.they can roll part of the country, and the scenario you paint, which is
:07:02. > :07:04.not the question I was asked, which is where you effectively abandoned
:07:05. > :07:09.the thing to the imagination of Assad, which he can't. Your solution
:07:10. > :07:14.is a non-solution. John Terry has been very clear this weekend, he has
:07:15. > :07:19.been very critical of the Russians, has basically said there are
:07:20. > :07:24.difficulties ahead but if this doesn't work, the call to jihad will
:07:25. > :07:29.be even stronger, and he is right about that, I think. That the trend
:07:30. > :07:34.we have seen for the last 18 months and we have seen Edexcel rating, and
:07:35. > :07:39.perhaps a side benefit for the Russian strategy is the knees and
:07:40. > :07:44.instability they are creating in southern Europe by displacing so
:07:45. > :07:47.many people. We are getting ready for the European summit on Thursday
:07:48. > :07:52.Friday and we are looking at this migration crisis that has not
:07:53. > :08:03.slowed. The number of people leaving Syria has remained pretty much
:08:04. > :08:06.constant despite the winter, so there are all kinds of strategic
:08:07. > :08:08.benefits for Russia at this point by pursuing this policy. Canny ask you
:08:09. > :08:11.about Libya, what you think will happen there? We don't talk about it
:08:12. > :08:15.much but maybe we should. There is always an under of the situation in
:08:16. > :08:19.the Middle East from the West in particular. You spoke about the
:08:20. > :08:24.British diplomat who said we have run out of ideas, it is true, they
:08:25. > :08:27.have been there for five years but achieved nothing. They underestimate
:08:28. > :08:32.the strength of Islamic State or Isis. What happens now, even if you
:08:33. > :08:39.destroy ice is in Syria and Iraq, what is the alternative? What will
:08:40. > :08:44.happen, what is plan B? Now, this kind of organisation is expanding.
:08:45. > :08:53.The problem is Libya now, they have more than 7000 fighters in Libya. It
:08:54. > :08:58.is officers, fighters, soldiers of Gaddafi turning to Islamic State the
:08:59. > :09:03.way former Saddam Hussein Republican guards did. They are strong and try
:09:04. > :09:08.to attack the so-called oil present in Libya and were about to control
:09:09. > :09:14.it, and special forces, British authors, French forces, prevented
:09:15. > :09:19.them. The man who used to be the leader of Islamic State in Iraq and
:09:20. > :09:28.Syria has moved to Libya and is reorganising his troops, and... He
:09:29. > :09:32.is originally from Georgia so is very influential and experienced in
:09:33. > :09:38.organising, recruiting people and putting military plans in place. It
:09:39. > :09:43.is very dangerous. Nato now is trying to fix the mess it created
:09:44. > :09:48.when it intervened five years ago. The decapitation of the Gaddafi
:09:49. > :09:54.regime. Guess, so this is the problem. I think the mess was
:09:55. > :10:00.slightly created by Libyan civil war. What happened to Libya is
:10:01. > :10:06.exactly why we should look at what happens in Syria. You are kidding,
:10:07. > :10:11.listen to what you just said. Let me finish the sentence. 450,000 dead in
:10:12. > :10:16.Syria and we should be get bored because of Libya? If you take away a
:10:17. > :10:20.regime and leave an opposition in capable of holding ground, that
:10:21. > :10:25.ground will go to Islamic State. Some of that is true but we have
:10:26. > :10:30.managed essentially by taking your advice, by the way, to concede
:10:31. > :10:33.exactly that situation in Syria, because the Assad regime was not
:10:34. > :10:37.strong enough to hold that ground, not because we put troops there or
:10:38. > :10:45.did what the Russians did but because we let it go, but we let it
:10:46. > :10:49.go... The other problem with this is that you cannot run history as two
:10:50. > :10:52.separate experiments. If there had not be an intervention in Benghazi
:10:53. > :10:59.many people would have been killed and would with doing heart searching
:11:00. > :11:03.that we did about Bosnia. But how many people killed by these Nato
:11:04. > :11:08.bombardment is? This theory that Gaddafi was going to massacre his
:11:09. > :11:14.people is not proven. It was speculation. He said he would do it.
:11:15. > :11:17.It was propaganda to prepare the ground for the Nato intervention.
:11:18. > :11:22.How many people were killed by the Nato bombardment, we don't know.
:11:23. > :11:29.What happened after that? Islamic State came and the Islamic militia
:11:30. > :11:32.took over, anarchy, bloody anarchy, thousands of immigrants coming to
:11:33. > :11:38.Europe. A final thought on this and I want to move on. You are seeing
:11:39. > :11:43.the result of a series of strategic blunders where the military has been
:11:44. > :11:49.used and has produced results that are counter to our collective
:11:50. > :11:52.national security. The attacks to protect the civilians to Benghazi
:11:53. > :11:56.was well-meaning and look what is left, that is my point. Let's move
:11:57. > :12:00.on. Donald Trump meets the Republican establishment candidates
:12:01. > :12:08.in New Hampshire, the first significant test of what ordinary
:12:09. > :12:23.voters think of him. Bernie Sanders... Is a trump-Sanders
:12:24. > :12:29.Presidency likely? I think Sanders has a great chance and would move to
:12:30. > :12:35.the centre and would possibly be an electoral campaign. Hillary
:12:36. > :12:39.Clinton's campaign has faltered badly. Sanders has a credible path
:12:40. > :12:44.but at the moment he is not the favourite. I think Trump is the
:12:45. > :12:47.favourite and Hillary is faltering badly, not connecting with voters
:12:48. > :12:52.how she needs to. One of many things about this that the prize me is the
:12:53. > :12:55.general coverage of the campaign, and this has happened so many times
:12:56. > :13:02.before particularly in the British press, there is a candidate who is a
:13:03. > :13:06.joke, that is the way he is treated, trump, Reagan, then all of a sudden
:13:07. > :13:09.you find that this is not a joke but a serious candidate who might win.
:13:10. > :13:12.Whether you like him or not is a different matter but they have to be
:13:13. > :13:18.treated seriously. An American colleague of mine was warning at
:13:19. > :13:24.least a year ago, stop treating Trump like a joke, it is serious and
:13:25. > :13:27.it is scary, and you had this wish the media would take him more
:13:28. > :13:36.seriously. What is interesting about this election campaign, Salon .com
:13:37. > :13:40.described it as a mass interaction against a rigged system, and it
:13:41. > :13:43.seems to be that is what is happening in the same way it is
:13:44. > :13:50.happening across Europe, with Corbin and the progressives and the far
:13:51. > :13:53.right across Europe, people just being fed up with unaccountable,
:13:54. > :14:00.undemocratic, self-serving elites that are in thrall to serving
:14:01. > :14:09.corporations and not interested in the 99%, set against rising costs,
:14:10. > :14:11.plummeting wages, job insecurity, massive wealth inequality, and what
:14:12. > :14:16.we are seeing with these progressives like Sanders is a
:14:17. > :14:24.reaction to that, a rebellion against that. We are also seeing it
:14:25. > :14:28.across the Western world. There is a bit of problem, racialist partially
:14:29. > :14:34.right but partially wrong. You have given me a partial right! It will be
:14:35. > :14:41.so heavily qualified in a moment... LAUGHTER Here comes the standard
:14:42. > :14:45.explanation of what might be a left insurgency and a complete failure in
:14:46. > :14:50.anyway to explain the right-wing insurgency. It is coming from the
:14:51. > :14:55.same thing. Then why choose a multi billionaire property magnate as the
:14:56. > :15:06.vehicle for this other America which is not run by money Mike. Sarah
:15:07. > :15:10.Pailin, who is always worth repeating, said Donald Trump is from
:15:11. > :15:14.the private sector, so in other words, although he is different from
:15:15. > :15:20.Sanders, it is still an insurgency because he is outside the system. I
:15:21. > :15:24.think she is right about that. This is the point that is right, there is
:15:25. > :15:29.an insurgency, but I am not sure the reasons given for it are the real
:15:30. > :15:35.reasons. I think they are part of the conceivable reasons. The other
:15:36. > :15:40.part is the year row we are in, of a kind of comic easy form of
:15:41. > :15:46.identification, individualist identification, with a candidate or
:15:47. > :15:51.a stance, rather than a programme and a series of policies and
:15:52. > :15:57.compromises you have to do to carry out. I have missed several tricks.
:15:58. > :16:00.That is why I have been here. You have missed the fact that Sanders
:16:01. > :16:04.and Corbin across Europe, they are the anti-leaders, they don't
:16:05. > :16:09.identify with the leader, they say they represent movements. What did I
:16:10. > :16:14.miss in the election therefore that we held in May last year, an actual
:16:15. > :16:23.age and, not a putative thing, what happened, who won it? The Tories won
:16:24. > :16:30.it. Listen to those over here! The most popular candidate in the most
:16:31. > :16:40.Arab world is Bernie Sanders. It says a lot. Seriously? Seriously,
:16:41. > :16:44.they are looking at him as a progressive, and a man who
:16:45. > :16:51.understands, certainly because Jewishness for him is a culture, not
:16:52. > :16:55.elude. He criticised Netanyahu and said the American president would
:16:56. > :16:59.decide the foreign policy of the United States, not the Israeli prime
:17:00. > :17:05.minister, and he is talking about poor people, how to help them, so he
:17:06. > :17:12.is ahead of Hillary Clinton, which is not popular in the Middle East.
:17:13. > :17:20.It tells you a lot... It tells you a lot about the Arab world! He is a
:17:21. > :17:24.good man. I hope you wouldn't... They want you to tell them what
:17:25. > :17:28.Jewishness is on away there can accept rather than what they cannot
:17:29. > :17:36.accept. That is probably not the top note that statement. But he is a
:17:37. > :17:42.progressive, he is winning. It is resonating with people and there is
:17:43. > :17:50.a reason for that. Why should we stand against him? You doubted
:17:51. > :17:54.Jeremy Corbyn would be elected and he is now the head of the Labour
:17:55. > :18:01.Party. I was absolutely astonished that he was elected but there was an
:18:02. > :18:06.anticipation, I certainly had it, didn't hold onto it for too long,
:18:07. > :18:09.but anticipation that people would say, look, on the whole it would be
:18:10. > :18:13.better to elect a labour leader who stood even a remote chance of
:18:14. > :18:17.becoming Prime minister, because with some of the things we might
:18:18. > :18:24.want to happen stand some little chance. There is no point... There
:18:25. > :18:27.is no point in a minimum wage or additional money on the NHS. There
:18:28. > :18:35.is no point in picking an austerity like candidate, doing just what the
:18:36. > :18:39.Tories do but a bit better, why not just change the whole thing? Going
:18:40. > :18:42.back to American politics for a minute, Bernie Sanders will now
:18:43. > :18:47.shoot ahead with his endorsement. Going back to the point I was making
:18:48. > :18:52.about trump, it would be stupid for people to underestimate a guy, a
:18:53. > :18:56.Jewish guy from New York goes to Vermont, becomes mayor of the month
:18:57. > :18:59.then goes to the Senate and says he is a socialist and winds in New
:19:00. > :19:03.Hampshire. This is someone who clearly has something which connects
:19:04. > :19:18.with a lot of people. Bernie is talented. I
:19:19. > :19:23.knew him in Vermont, I went is to school there when he was younger and
:19:24. > :19:25.more arrogant. Now he is older he comes across as fatherly and the
:19:26. > :19:28.vile killer so he has grown into his arrogance. If the Democrats go with
:19:29. > :19:30.Sanders, Bloomberg could be a formidable third party candidates,
:19:31. > :19:34.like Ralph Nader or Ross Perot, could tip an election towards trump,
:19:35. > :19:41.Rubio, cruise or any Republican candidate. On that happy note of not
:19:42. > :19:46.knowing what is going on. We will say you cannot criticise David
:19:47. > :19:49.Cameron, this is loan word, of chillaxing, when it comes to the
:19:50. > :19:53.European Union. As his campaign for a better deal in Europe closes, as
:19:54. > :19:59.he got the best we can hope for and will this convince the people have
:20:00. > :20:04.voted in the referendum, what do you think? My problem is I don't care
:20:05. > :20:10.about this deal very much because it is a deal essentially for the
:20:11. > :20:14.Conservative Party's benefit, and is done in order to give the maximum
:20:15. > :20:19.number of conservatives the maximum leeway to say, we have not done too
:20:20. > :20:25.badly so we can stay in. In fact, the speech Cameron gave last night
:20:26. > :20:29.was not just an argument in favour of his reform package but a gigantic
:20:30. > :20:37.argument in favour of having their opinion and staying in it at almost
:20:38. > :20:41.all costs. Which is your position. It is a strategic necessity for a
:20:42. > :20:46.country like ours which has been recognised by leaders going back to
:20:47. > :20:50.Macmillan and beyond, for Britain to be part of the European Union and
:20:51. > :20:54.the European Alliance, as much as also part of a transatlantic
:20:55. > :20:58.alliance, and to cop out of it I think would be a major disaster. I
:20:59. > :21:02.would vote for the EU, the matter what this deal was, but what
:21:03. > :21:07.surprises me is that he even has what he has, which is an indication
:21:08. > :21:14.that other European governments are nervous as well about the prospects
:21:15. > :21:18.of a British exit. Two unusual things have happened, one is I agree
:21:19. > :21:24.with David when he says it is more about the Tory party. Jeremy Corbyn
:21:25. > :21:29.said that. I am not bound by his word but thanks for that endorsement
:21:30. > :21:32.of my independence of mind! The second thing I said is interesting
:21:33. > :21:36.and I never thought I would say is I'm quite impressed by the way
:21:37. > :21:44.Cameron has handled Europe. He has done a good job, in that charming,
:21:45. > :21:48.chummy way our political and media elites have, he has in gauge to
:21:49. > :21:53.European leaders in the past few months who were keen on him to begin
:21:54. > :21:58.with, and he has turned around the EU which may be a year ago would
:21:59. > :22:01.have said, leave, we don't want you with your stupid exception list
:22:02. > :22:07.demands. He has brought them round and is much as it pains me to say
:22:08. > :22:11.that is to his credit. It is also due to other things being broken in
:22:12. > :22:19.the EU, the immigration question and Borders. David Cameron manipulated
:22:20. > :22:26.the weakness of Europe in order to gain some concessions. When I say
:22:27. > :22:30.the weakness, the European Union is in its week is time now because of
:22:31. > :22:36.the immigration problems, because of the border, and because this
:22:37. > :22:44.agreement and the quotas and so on. He decided to hit now, so it might
:22:45. > :22:48.say, OK, if you wanted to stay you have to make concessions. Europe
:22:49. > :22:53.want him in and also David Cameron wanted to stay in Europe. If he
:22:54. > :23:00.didn't he could make his terms and conditions much more difficult to be
:23:01. > :23:05.accepted. But he has made his conditions once he think the
:23:06. > :23:09.Europeans can accept. That is something pro-and anti-Europeans in
:23:10. > :23:15.this country agree about, that the bar has been set. John Kerry also
:23:16. > :23:20.said this weekend he thinks Britain's places in the EU. That is
:23:21. > :23:24.the view in Washington. Yes, the Obama people have been clear that
:23:25. > :23:30.Britain has two stay in the EU from the US point of view. There was a
:23:31. > :23:33.story this morning that the US is planning a fairly aggressive... The
:23:34. > :23:37.Obama people are trying to figure out to what degree Obama personally
:23:38. > :23:40.lobbying for this would either help the cause or hurt it, because they
:23:41. > :23:47.don't want to be seen to be telling Brits what to do or how to vote, but
:23:48. > :23:51.they are alarmed about Britain pulling out, the nuclear deterrent,
:23:52. > :23:56.Scotland possibly leaving the UK, the thing that could be set in
:23:57. > :23:59.motion at a time of increased Russian aggression, Britain pulling
:24:00. > :24:04.out of Europe makes Washington nervous. They are used to thinking
:24:05. > :24:08.Britain as their closest, most influential ally, and they are
:24:09. > :24:12.afraid of that. So some of those things have come out already, but
:24:13. > :24:17.the only calculation from the Obama administration is whether he makes a
:24:18. > :24:20.big thing of it, whether it is counter adopted --
:24:21. > :24:25.counter-productive. Yes. But they are really worried in Washington.
:24:26. > :24:30.The verb is sleepwalking, it you guys could be sleepwalking to
:24:31. > :24:39.withdrawal from the EU which to Washington makes no sense. It is
:24:40. > :24:41.difficult from a progressive point of view, clearly the EU is
:24:42. > :24:47.problematic, and democratic, and accountable and secretive and
:24:48. > :24:55.serving elites. Aside from that?! Talk about what the Romans have ever
:24:56. > :25:01.done for us! We need to strengthen the things like the human rights
:25:02. > :25:11.function, the Labour directive argument, why freedom of movement is
:25:12. > :25:17.needed. We are not having a chance to air a progressive conversation
:25:18. > :25:22.about reforming the EU. Varoufakis did that last week. As a journalist
:25:23. > :25:27.this will be a huge story for us, I would like to see more people on the
:25:28. > :25:32.yes and no side. That's it for Dateline London this week. You can
:25:33. > :25:33.comment on the programme on Twitter, @gavinesler. We are back next week
:25:34. > :25:52.at the same time. Goodbye. Let's see what the weather is up
:25:53. > :25:56.to for the rest of today.