:00:00. > :00:00.reported dead. The government has declared a state of natural disaster
:00:00. > :00:08.across the island and a curfew remains in place. Now it is time for
:00:09. > :00:24.Hello and welcome to Dateline London.
:00:25. > :00:34.Russia says it does not bomb hospitals and Syria.
:00:35. > :00:42.My guests today include a Russian journalist,
:00:43. > :00:48.Janet Daley from the Sunday Telegraph.
:00:49. > :00:50.David Cameron told us he is battling for Britain
:00:51. > :00:58.Can he wind a referendum on how far above the EU have to change
:00:59. > :01:13.Has it failed to live up to the hopes?
:01:14. > :01:18.It is the most significant thing about the EU, that it took all this
:01:19. > :01:29.agony, this week, and three days of solid arguing to get this result.
:01:30. > :01:32.That means that this opportunity that many of us thought existed
:01:33. > :01:38.to reform the EU through this renegotiation of the UK position,
:01:39. > :01:49.If it took them all that hassle and all that discussion,
:01:50. > :01:52.how much of this was pantomime and pre-scripted?
:01:53. > :01:55.It is difficult to say, but the point was that they tried
:01:56. > :01:59.to give the impression that this was the most contentious thing that
:02:00. > :02:02.had ever been presented to them, and then they finally agreed
:02:03. > :02:07.on something, that hardly causes a ripple.
:02:08. > :02:13.Most of these are rhetorical changes.
:02:14. > :02:16.At his press conference David Cameron was saying things
:02:17. > :02:27.He said that we would never be a member of the euro,
:02:28. > :02:29.but no one has suggested that we should join them.
:02:30. > :02:35.The idea that we have created some special status within the EU,
:02:36. > :02:47.The one concession that he did achieve is about benefits
:02:48. > :02:51.Working tax credits are going to disappear
:02:52. > :02:53.because they are introducing the living wage.
:02:54. > :03:06.This will not make any difference to the EU migration.
:03:07. > :03:14.There are so many countries not willing to do it.
:03:15. > :03:17.The hope that this will lead to a more competitive EU
:03:18. > :03:21.was expressed 50 years ago in Lisbon.
:03:22. > :03:26.Everyone agreed to make Europe the most forward-looking
:03:27. > :03:35.The Italians and French are sticking to somewhat rigid mechanisms
:03:36. > :03:47.On the other hand, what is he going to say to his people?
:03:48. > :03:51.Say it wasn't enough and we cannot accept it as a deal,
:03:52. > :04:00.Perhaps he will say what Alex Salmond says he should say
:04:01. > :04:03.- if he campaigns on the deal he will lose.
:04:04. > :04:10.This is good for national security, good for economic security,
:04:11. > :04:13.he has to move it from the specifics to a bigger picture.
:04:14. > :04:18.Note how the issue of security is coming more and more to the fore.
:04:19. > :04:21.Everyone singing from the same hymn sheet, increasing threats in this
:04:22. > :04:26.world, we can't go it alone, we need a larger family to be more
:04:27. > :04:30.effective in containing the dangers arising.
:04:31. > :04:38.Somewhat wobbly, and this is the status of Britain.
:04:39. > :04:46.It's always been separate from the continent.
:04:47. > :04:49.It has never been in doubt we would do things differently,
:04:50. > :04:53.never been in doubt that Britain is not like that about Europe.
:04:54. > :04:57.He said he did not like Brussels when he was just there and he talks
:04:58. > :05:01.like that - it's amazing how you let him get away with it.
:05:02. > :05:04.You've given him a presumed deal and the guy has the nerve to say
:05:05. > :05:12.I was asked by Russian television, while Cameron was debating
:05:13. > :05:17.at the summit, to forecast what was going to happen.
:05:18. > :05:24.I said the package would be very unexciting.
:05:25. > :05:30.That basically nobody thinks that Britain will ever leave the EU.
:05:31. > :05:35.Such an impossible scenario to envisage.
:05:36. > :05:39.They write it so much they repeat it all the time.
:05:40. > :05:42.My point is, if Cameron was serious about this,
:05:43. > :05:50.He never promised anyone a referendum in 2016.
:05:51. > :05:56.He had all the time in the world to work out a really good package.
:05:57. > :05:59.But is that not because you are assuming this is about the EU rather
:06:00. > :06:02.than the internal politics of the Tory party?
:06:03. > :06:05.If it is about the EU, you could say, let's take three
:06:06. > :06:11.If it is about what will I do for the rest of my term,
:06:12. > :06:18.That would be terrible, let's get it over with.
:06:19. > :06:23.He has moved the dates because he's going to leave soon.
:06:24. > :06:28.Because this referendum committee needs to deliver.
:06:29. > :06:33.He can't just say, I am leaving, you can do this.
:06:34. > :06:46.So my suspicions is that we will see the back of Cameron soon.
:06:47. > :06:53.We don't know how much of the deal he brought back today
:06:54. > :06:59.Will there be referendum calls in other countries in Europe?
:07:00. > :07:04.Will the European Court overrule some of this?
:07:05. > :07:06.And on the other side, possibly more important,
:07:07. > :07:10.we don't know how the European Union itself is going to fare as soon
:07:11. > :07:18.If the migrant crisis is again bad, or worse than it was last year,
:07:19. > :07:25.if the euro begins to show new signs of faltering, you may find
:07:26. > :07:28.that the European Union, one or two years from now,
:07:29. > :07:31.looks much different on its own account
:07:32. > :07:40.I would say the European Union loves this referendum.
:07:41. > :07:42.The reason being that the referendum will seal Britain's membership
:07:43. > :07:59.It's not just the views of British people, or those who don't
:08:00. > :08:07.There's a secret subtext being circulated among people
:08:08. > :08:11.in favour of remaining and that is, the whole thing is going to implode
:08:12. > :08:18.It has become unsustainable and migration is going to split it
:08:19. > :08:27.The euro is going to split it north to south.
:08:28. > :08:31.As we saw with Greece's spectacular threat to veto the whole thing.
:08:32. > :08:50.This is not a sustainable project any longer.
:08:51. > :08:52.So it does not really matter whether we vote...
:08:53. > :08:58.That speaks against Alexander's idea to have left the vote on this
:08:59. > :09:00.issue until next year, the date originally set.
:09:01. > :09:03.He can't have the issue hanging round his neck like an albatross.
:09:04. > :09:05.Secondly, the European Union is apparently unravelling
:09:06. > :09:08.on the fringes, and if you need to do anything you
:09:09. > :09:12.We are being a little dismissive of what Cameron has achieved
:09:13. > :09:16.If we turn this upside down and look at it the other the way,
:09:17. > :09:20.I don't think it was melodrama, the way that some of the smaller
:09:21. > :09:22.countries of Eastern Europe, indeed France and Germany,
:09:23. > :09:25.have resisted some of these changes, very strongly, and required 30 hours
:09:26. > :09:28.of negotiation to achieve what Cameron did.
:09:29. > :09:31.I think that tells us that the concessions they made
:09:32. > :09:36.Particularly those countries in Eastern Europe which have
:09:37. > :09:40.benefited so much by the wealth transfer of being a member
:09:41. > :09:47.They have given up something in the face of strong opposition.
:09:48. > :09:53.The issue was blown out of all proportion.
:09:54. > :09:57.Yet it is in the position, we are talking about it
:09:58. > :10:06.We've also seen in the past week the Leave campaign, whatever
:10:07. > :10:10.the arguments for and against, it has been a bit of a shambles.
:10:11. > :10:12.Now you've got Nigel Farage and George Galloway,
:10:13. > :10:17.They will not be, I promise, the official accredited
:10:18. > :10:25.The respectable one will be the official voice
:10:26. > :10:34.But it is true that this kind of essential image of Nigel Farage
:10:35. > :10:39.and George Galloway is damaging to the campaign.
:10:40. > :10:42.People ask themselves, what will this say about me?
:10:43. > :10:44.And this could have a significant negative effect on the potential
:10:45. > :11:00.The prospect of a ceasefire and humanitarian help for besieged
:11:01. > :11:05.towns in Syria, the bombing of hospitals by Russian planes
:11:06. > :11:09.or not, depending who you believe, the threat of Turkish or Saudi
:11:10. > :11:14.troops invading Syria or not, and terrorist bombing in the capital
:11:15. > :11:21.And more talk of the new Cold War between Russia and the West.
:11:22. > :11:24.The challenge for everyone around the table is to expand
:11:25. > :11:36.I think the problem is those divisions between the West
:11:37. > :11:41.and Russia are basically fuelling this conflict even more,
:11:42. > :11:47.because until you have some sort of agreement between the major
:11:48. > :11:50.players, you cannot really sort out this situation.
:11:51. > :11:53.The problem for the Russian side is that they are trying to convince
:11:54. > :11:57.the Western partners, whatever you call them,
:11:58. > :12:01.that Assad is not the issue at the moment.
:12:02. > :12:06.Let's make Isis and other terrorist groups the main issue.
:12:07. > :12:10.Unfortunately the Americans are saying one day, one thing,
:12:11. > :12:13.probably we will keep him for a while, the next day they say,
:12:14. > :12:20.And that is causing disruption and misunderstanding.
:12:21. > :12:25.Putin has been basically offering to create the united anti-terrorist
:12:26. > :12:29.operation for how long, months, and no response.
:12:30. > :12:38.We had an agreement in Geneva to stop the bombing
:12:39. > :12:44.And as that was announced the bombing continued.
:12:45. > :12:51.You can't demand a ceasefire in a situation in a week's time
:12:52. > :12:58.when nobody knows who is who and who is doing what.
:12:59. > :13:01.You have to give them at least a month or two.
:13:02. > :13:06.Just a way to show, we are doing this...
:13:07. > :13:11.Why have a ceasefire if you think it won't work?
:13:12. > :13:17.They could not not agree but the terms were
:13:18. > :13:26.Putin's top priority is to keep Assad in power.
:13:27. > :13:32.They don't want to lose their proxy in that region.
:13:33. > :13:36.They want to make sure that their sphere of influence
:13:37. > :13:48.His point is that Assad is irrelevant at the moment
:13:49. > :13:51.because there are much worse people than him.
:13:52. > :13:54.Assad is pushing Syrians and Iraqis and people in the region
:13:55. > :14:02.Until you get rid of the Assad regime you will never stop the flood
:14:03. > :14:10.Assad is a genocidal tyrant and the Russians support him
:14:11. > :14:12.for their own reasons I agree on one point,
:14:13. > :14:19.the isolation in Washington has been absolutely fatal to this process.
:14:20. > :14:22.And it has allowed Putin to occupy the vacuum that has been left
:14:23. > :14:34.None of us around this table like Mr Putin very much,
:14:35. > :14:38.but of all the international leaders to have engaged with this problem,
:14:39. > :14:42.the one who seems to know what he is doing, however
:14:43. > :14:47.much we may dislike it, is Mr Putin.
:14:48. > :14:51.And he has, in less than three months, rewritten the map.
:14:52. > :15:00.And we don't know how far that his going.
:15:01. > :15:03.But along with the bombings of the hospitals and the other
:15:04. > :15:06.outrages committed by Russian air power...
:15:07. > :15:18.Remember that the Russian media is much more present on the ground
:15:19. > :15:23.The Western media comes in and out, the Russian correspondents
:15:24. > :15:28.If you watch Russian TV you would see their reports
:15:29. > :15:37.You mentioned the Obama administration.
:15:38. > :15:41.Is part of the problem not that the Obama administration sees
:15:42. > :15:44.the Kurdish fighters on the ground are doing a lot of the ground
:15:45. > :15:47.fighting, but that the Obama administration is in Nato
:15:48. > :15:50.with the Turks and the Turks are bombing the Kurds?
:15:51. > :15:57.So to go back to your summary, it is a mess.
:15:58. > :15:59.The situation is probably insoluble certainly by Western forces.
:16:00. > :16:03.The trouble is if the Western forces give up and leave the region
:16:04. > :16:06.to Russia and Assad to carve up the region, that would be
:16:07. > :16:12.The tension between Russia and Turkey is appalling.
:16:13. > :16:19.And there is a seriously dangerous situation.
:16:20. > :16:22.It threatens to be the big picture - the Nato mission in conflict
:16:23. > :16:24.with Russia over an area disputed in northern Syria,
:16:25. > :16:31.perhaps to keep going in to clean up...
:16:32. > :16:34.If Turkey goes into northern Syria, if it doesn't do so as a member
:16:35. > :16:37.of Nato, it does so to protect its national interest.
:16:38. > :16:47.You don't have to call up paragraph five, say,
:16:48. > :16:50.when one member of Nato is in conflict, the others must come
:16:51. > :16:55.It's the same in the North and the South.
:16:56. > :16:59.If Saudi Arabia and Turkey go into this, this is what we hoped
:17:00. > :17:01.would happen, the neighbouring Arab states would actually take matters
:17:02. > :17:12.It seems to me we need to move beyond the hubris of thinking that
:17:13. > :17:14.foreign leaders from far away, particularly Western leaders,
:17:15. > :17:24.You said that Russia was changing the map.
:17:25. > :17:30.I'm not approving what they are doing, I'm saying is a fact.
:17:31. > :17:32.If Western leaders withdraw that leaves the field open for Russia
:17:33. > :17:38.It seems to me this matter will have to be settled on the ground in Syria
:17:39. > :17:40.and with the influence of other Arab powers in the region,
:17:41. > :17:43.and the best we can do with our money and armed forces
:17:44. > :17:49.is to support everything we can do in mitigation.
:17:50. > :17:53.You had the chance in Libya, and look what is happening now.
:17:54. > :18:01.The Americans have just bombed again.
:18:02. > :18:08.That is what you want to do now with Syria.
:18:09. > :18:17.It may involve nation-building, staying for a decade,
:18:18. > :18:21.but you cannot go in, remove the leadership and walk away.
:18:22. > :18:40.When everyone says, we have no role in the desert, why do
:18:41. > :18:44.You must call their bluff, and the Turkish government
:18:45. > :18:58.Pedalling her own interests in that area.
:18:59. > :19:01.So the adjacent countries have a duty to tell the intervening
:19:02. > :19:08.We will make our own attempt at sorting out this.
:19:09. > :19:15.We will see the results of that local intervention.
:19:16. > :19:20.Including trying to constrain the Russians.
:19:21. > :19:25.We do have influence, but for goodness sake we should have
:19:26. > :19:27.learned after how many years, 12 years of military intervention
:19:28. > :19:34.Military force is not going to solve this problem.
:19:35. > :19:43.But I wanted to ask you, the Russian Prime Minister said
:19:44. > :19:48.Is that how things are seen in Russia?
:19:49. > :19:51.At the same time as that meeting in Munich last week,
:19:52. > :19:53.John Kerry was talking about new investment in defence
:19:54. > :20:01.We know there has been more hardware strengthening Nato there.
:20:02. > :20:05.I've just been to Moscow and spoken to some of the officials there.
:20:06. > :20:08.I think frustration would be the word that they feel
:20:09. > :20:16.Because every attempt, as mentioned already,
:20:17. > :20:20.to something together, in Syria, fails.
:20:21. > :20:24.Nobody responds, nobody talks in a constructive way.
:20:25. > :20:30.And the Russians are still saying that the West doesn't want to accept
:20:31. > :20:35.one important point - that the invasion of Iraq triggered,
:20:36. > :20:41.what they were saying then to the Americans would trigger this
:20:42. > :20:43.chain reaction across the Middle East and even further
:20:44. > :20:49.Obama, as one official noted, made a crucial mistake
:20:50. > :20:51.by pulling out American forces to early from Iraq.
:20:52. > :21:00.What happened afterwards, which people don't talk about,
:21:01. > :21:03.is that Americans, when they pull out, they leave those bloodthirsty
:21:04. > :21:06.private security companies in those countries.
:21:07. > :21:10.Which turn all the people against them because these
:21:11. > :21:20.That is what happened in Iraq, when they were pulled out and those
:21:21. > :21:28.I am sorry that you are changing the topic.
:21:29. > :21:31.That is water under the bridge, 12 years ago.
:21:32. > :21:34.When you came back from Moscow, I think that was crocodile tears
:21:35. > :21:38.and not understanding what the Russians were doing.
:21:39. > :21:41.We cannot accept cluster bombs on people.
:21:42. > :21:52.You are quoting the one person who makes all these claims.
:21:53. > :21:55.Let's forget the hospital, although the Russians are bombing
:21:56. > :22:03.There is such chaos there that the Western press
:22:04. > :22:13.Excuse me, but Peter Byrne has just returned from Aleppo
:22:14. > :22:19.You know the main thrust of his reports?
:22:20. > :22:22.The locals say, why it is the British government
:22:23. > :22:25.supporting terrorists and not helping to fight for them?
:22:26. > :22:30.This is not a Russian correspondent saying this.
:22:31. > :22:33.Read his reports and you will see what the locals think
:22:34. > :22:38.about the Russian bombing campaign and the Russians helping Syria.
:22:39. > :22:45.All the evidence we've seen on our television screens,
:22:46. > :22:49.apart from Peter, who have got there, is that there's a widespread
:22:50. > :22:52.anger against the Russian air force for its bombing campaign.
:22:53. > :23:02.Just a few minutes left, you cannot say what happened in Iran
:23:03. > :23:09.The point is, we are where we are and we must start
:23:10. > :23:18.The Obama administration treading on its red line in Syria was just
:23:19. > :23:22.a signal to Putin that he could have his way in that region and he's
:23:23. > :23:28.This is an appalling situation and we now have to decide how
:23:29. > :23:33.If that means backing up Turkey as a Nato country,
:23:34. > :23:35.the difficulty there is with the Kurds because they are fighting
:23:36. > :23:39.Isil and the Turks don't like the Kurds.
:23:40. > :23:41.This is a very, very messy situation.
:23:42. > :23:42.No point in trading preposterous stories
:23:43. > :23:51.You raised the question about the European Union
:23:52. > :23:58.These two stories are connected - do you think there is a case that
:23:59. > :24:01.migration will be on the minds of many British people
:24:02. > :24:05.when they vote on the EU referendum on June 23.
:24:06. > :24:09.May it be to Mr Cameron's benefit to say that it is better
:24:10. > :24:11.that the European Union acts in concert, which it hasn't done
:24:12. > :24:21.I'm quite negative about the likely effect of the worsening refugee
:24:22. > :24:26.situation in Europe impinging on the referendum.
:24:27. > :24:29.It might make David Cameron's job more difficult because of the chaos
:24:30. > :24:39.created by the Syrian situation in Europe.
:24:40. > :24:41.Even more exodus from that country.
:24:42. > :24:51.Some said it was Project Fear if Britain was no longer in the EU?
:24:52. > :24:59.The French can say, we will happily let everyone travel
:25:00. > :25:03.The refugee crisis is one of the aftermaths of the Syrian
:25:04. > :25:08.problem which causes great anger in the mind of people in Europe,
:25:09. > :25:14.because we think Russia is instrumental in increasing
:25:15. > :25:18.As far as the referendum is concerned, yes, it might make it
:25:19. > :25:21.harder, but Britain is safe behind the hallowed wall of
:25:22. > :25:31.Do you feel, Thomas, that if Schengen is abandoned
:25:32. > :25:33.for two years it will never come back?
:25:34. > :25:38.We are coming to that crunch time very soon.
:25:39. > :25:44.You can contact us online, we will be back at the same
:25:45. > :26:11.Thank you for watching.
:26:12. > :26:21.It will remain quite unsettled, certainly on Sunday.
:26:22. > :26:24.Outbreaks of rain thanks to this huge arc