:00:29. > :00:29.Hello and welcome to Dateline London.
:00:30. > :00:31.President Obama appears to think Britain and France don't
:00:32. > :00:37.Ahead of the British Budget - more gloom about the Eurozone
:00:38. > :00:40.Plus: Turkey strikes a deal with the European Union
:00:41. > :00:41.over returning migrants and asylum seekers.
:00:42. > :00:48.With me is Marc Roche of Le Point and Le Soir,
:00:49. > :00:51.Stephanie Baker of Bloomberg Market, Mina al Oraibi who is a writer
:00:52. > :00:53.on Middle East affairs, and Adam Raphael, who is
:00:54. > :01:03.You can tell when Presidents of the United States are coming
:01:04. > :01:04.to the end of their political careers.
:01:05. > :01:07.They start telling the truth in stark terms.
:01:08. > :01:10.Despite all the tummy tickling from the White House spin machine
:01:11. > :01:12.about the "special relationship" with Britain, Mr Obama appears
:01:13. > :01:16.to think Britain and France don't pull their weight, that they depend
:01:17. > :01:19.upon the Americans to get things done, then boast about their own
:01:20. > :01:22.successes and complain that it is all Washington's
:01:23. > :01:34.Yes he is telling the truth. The difficulty with his position is that
:01:35. > :01:40.America has not been pulling its weight either. None of us have been
:01:41. > :01:44.pulling our weight. I am kinder to politicians than most of my
:01:45. > :01:50.colleagues. The reason for this is the electorate is not allowing them
:01:51. > :01:55.to. The willingness to back military intervention anywhere in the world
:01:56. > :02:01.now, is less probably than it has been for 50, 100 years. There is a
:02:02. > :02:06.real dissatisfaction amongst isolationism in all of these
:02:07. > :02:12.countries. We share it in Britain. The fact is, we are unwilling even
:02:13. > :02:18.to deploy 100 SAS in Libya to take on some of these people. We are
:02:19. > :02:23.unwilling to deploy the SAS in Syria and unwilling to deploy the SAS in
:02:24. > :02:29.Iraq. We're not willing to commit even professional soldiers, killers.
:02:30. > :02:35.They were not willing to risk their lives because the politicians feared
:02:36. > :02:40.a backlash from the electorate. None of us are pulling out weight. I
:02:41. > :02:44.should say beforehand, congratulations. You are now about
:02:45. > :02:53.to be given an award by the French government. What have you done to
:02:54. > :03:03.deserve that? I think that is completely wrong. France, at the
:03:04. > :03:08.moment, is in Mali, in Syria, and is fighting covertly in Libya. You said
:03:09. > :03:16.the US is not pulling its weight at all. They use drones, killing more
:03:17. > :03:21.civilians than terrorists and diplomacy is completely absent. I
:03:22. > :03:30.think there is a message there for Britain. If Britain quits the EU, it
:03:31. > :03:37.cannot count on the Russians and will be isolationist and Europe
:03:38. > :03:43.better stick together. France might replace Britain as the best ally of
:03:44. > :03:50.the US! One thing we are hearing here is that Obama is Spock. That is
:03:51. > :03:54.one of his nicknames in the Foreign Office he was cool, rational, but
:03:55. > :04:00.not really engaged or showing real leadership. Right. That is what
:04:01. > :04:06.worries him, a history will not treat him kindly. Even though he has
:04:07. > :04:12.some really great foreign policy successes under his belt. He is the
:04:13. > :04:19.president who tracked down a salad bin la done. He has announced the
:04:20. > :04:32.closing of Lantana Row Bay. Osama bin -- Osama bin Laden. The decision
:04:33. > :04:36.to give this extraordinary interview, ten months to go,
:04:37. > :04:41.undiplomatic in many respects, it shows he is really worried about his
:04:42. > :04:45.legacy, he will be seen as the president who allowed the Middle
:04:46. > :04:49.East to go up in flames. He underestimated the threat from Syria
:04:50. > :04:55.and Isis. He is really worried that history will not treat him kindly.
:04:56. > :05:00.Even his accusation that the Europeans were free riders, as he
:05:01. > :05:06.called them, is a kind of way of passing the buck about deflecting
:05:07. > :05:11.criticism for the Mac of leadership shown in the foreign policy. One
:05:12. > :05:14.thing I heard from the former Clinton official when the banner was
:05:15. > :05:22.elected. He said he realised this president had been dealt the worst
:05:23. > :05:26.hand of any president in a long while. With all the problems he has
:05:27. > :05:31.had to deal with. You have to look where he is started, if you're going
:05:32. > :05:36.to judge where he has got to. He started with an incredible amount of
:05:37. > :05:41.goodwill. Just not being George Bush gave him an opportunity to change
:05:42. > :05:46.the dynamic. If you look at the Middle East, yes, you was dealt a
:05:47. > :05:50.bad hand. What did the people in the region say? They had to deal with an
:05:51. > :05:59.American presidency under George Bush who thought with the invasion
:06:00. > :06:07.of Iraq to begin with have a domino effect. President Obama said, I am
:06:08. > :06:11.going to get out of Iraq. Quite a lot of the criticism he is handing
:06:12. > :06:14.out is unfair and hold a lot more of the blame at this point when we look
:06:15. > :06:21.at the Middle East. First of all, having a policy of no action is a
:06:22. > :06:26.means of being -- as a means of being guilt free is not right. Hear
:06:27. > :06:31.a lot of people from Washington saying, we intervened in Libya, look
:06:32. > :06:37.at the mess. We did not intervene in Syria, look at the mess. It is the
:06:38. > :06:41.same thing. How can a superpower go ahead with this kind of foreign
:06:42. > :06:46.policy? It is crazy. The Europeans do not realise how much strength
:06:47. > :06:50.they have. The UK almost went into a defeatist mode of, there is nothing
:06:51. > :06:55.we can do. The French have it absolutely right, doing more and are
:06:56. > :06:58.involved. The idea of either intervening militarily and invading
:06:59. > :07:04.countries or doing nothing, it is crazy. The weakness of President
:07:05. > :07:07.Obama in my point of view is not building on relationships and
:07:08. > :07:10.strengths that US has in the region rather than saying there are too
:07:11. > :07:19.many problems, let's work on the deal. What is slightly undercover
:07:20. > :07:23.but is not under covered by the New York Times, the Gulf countries are
:07:24. > :07:26.also much worse will do they expect us to do things and tell us to do
:07:27. > :07:31.things privately and they are never there when we do things and get
:07:32. > :07:35.blamed. When you look at the fight against terrorism, you have had
:07:36. > :07:39.Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the UAE and others going full force and dragging
:07:40. > :07:43.the US into taking action against Isis. That is much earlier than
:07:44. > :07:50.Washington wanted. That is also unfair. The problem for President
:07:51. > :07:56.Obama is that Saudi Arabia should share the region with Iran. They do
:07:57. > :08:02.not want to be split between Iran and Saudi Arabia. That is the
:08:03. > :08:06.argument. You can see, going back to your point about why there is not
:08:07. > :08:11.intervention, there is no appetite for intervention. Out of the blue
:08:12. > :08:15.this week, a voter, let's say, a bloke came up to meet industry and
:08:16. > :08:19.set me realise what a mess we are in. We have messed up the Middle
:08:20. > :08:23.East and now we're missing up Europe as a spill-over for ten, 15 years of
:08:24. > :08:27.failed policy that this was an ordinary bloke in the street. That
:08:28. > :08:34.is the way many people think. I agree with that. Whether criticisms
:08:35. > :08:38.from Obama are justified is over Libya. The disintegration over that
:08:39. > :08:41.country, all of us in the West have a responsibility, not just the
:08:42. > :08:45.United States. It is easy to lean on the United States all the time.
:08:46. > :08:51.There is not the willingness in this country, or in France, despite what
:08:52. > :08:55.my great friend who we enjoyed disagreeing with each other says.
:08:56. > :09:02.There is not the appetite or indeed the understanding that we have a
:09:03. > :09:07.responsibility. When you replace unlike Gadhafi you cannot allow the
:09:08. > :09:10.whole country to disintegrate. It would not have required huge
:09:11. > :09:15.resources but would have involved some risks. These Western countries
:09:16. > :09:24.are prepare to take these risks at the moment. He suggested that David
:09:25. > :09:27.Cameron became distracted. That is inevitable that politicians will
:09:28. > :09:33.think about the next big thing to talk about. And that is the EU
:09:34. > :09:38.referendum. The next big thing for Cameron was the referendum and for
:09:39. > :09:41.President Francois Hollande was getting re-elected. After the
:09:42. > :09:50.victory, they just forgot about Libya. Also Nicolas Sarkozy then.
:09:51. > :09:56.Francois Hollande said it was his mess. They had a lot on their plate
:09:57. > :09:59.at that moment. You might expect the US to step up and provide more
:10:00. > :10:01.leadership when Europe is legitimately distracted.
:10:02. > :10:04.From the leadership of China to the European Central Bank
:10:05. > :10:07.to Britain's Governor and former Governor of the Bank of England one
:10:08. > :10:09.word sums up the view of the world economy: Gloom.
:10:10. > :10:21.You listen to these people. You think it might be a good idea to go
:10:22. > :10:26.away for a year and hibernate. Obviously it is slowing down. The
:10:27. > :10:32.focus is really on China. We have some worrying statements this week.
:10:33. > :10:37.The Chinese premier is targeting growth of 6.5%, which a lot of
:10:38. > :10:43.people think is unrealistic. The highest deficit in 35 years. Chinese
:10:44. > :10:49.exports are collapsing. They dropped at their fastest rate since 2009.
:10:50. > :10:53.That has prompted the Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, to
:10:54. > :10:58.come out and say interest rates might go down instead of going up.
:10:59. > :11:05.It also prompted extraordinary action we saw from the European
:11:06. > :11:11.Central Bank this week with trying to figure out how to stimulate the
:11:12. > :11:19.Eurozone economy. You we saw the seesaw reaction to that that people
:11:20. > :11:25.are really worried that now Draghi's box is empty. He has said he can't
:11:26. > :11:31.see how to cut interest rates anymore. We are seeing a failure of
:11:32. > :11:42.central bank policies to really get out of this hole. The problem is
:11:43. > :11:47.liquid accrued has not -- liquidity has not come through to the real
:11:48. > :11:53.economy. The real economy has not been gaining. Why? Demand is very
:11:54. > :11:58.low and people of first members. They do not consume. There is no
:11:59. > :12:06.inflation. Ageing population and so forth and so on. We are now in a
:12:07. > :12:13.situation where the box is empty. And so the only way to go back to
:12:14. > :12:18.the basics and what is that? Spend, spend, spend. Go on deficit even
:12:19. > :12:25.further to finance education, infrastructure, and especially
:12:26. > :12:31.retraining of the blue-collar workers and white-collar workers.
:12:32. > :12:36.You sound like John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor. He said the same
:12:37. > :12:40.sort of thing this week. Absolutely. It is great. We have to relaunch the
:12:41. > :12:47.economy. Austerities has been a disaster. The American economy is
:12:48. > :12:51.growing strongly. The British economy is going well. Obviously the
:12:52. > :12:57.oil price hangs over everything and has been quite destabilising. You
:12:58. > :13:01.know, markets boom and bust. If you judge gloom by the way the share
:13:02. > :13:06.market are going, the real world is so different from that. I think you
:13:07. > :13:13.have to look at the real world. Chinese economy, only 6%! If you
:13:14. > :13:16.believe that... There is a slowdown. Life is never stable. If you want a
:13:17. > :13:23.stable life that you would be gloomy. There are various, big
:13:24. > :13:27.factor is leading the world economy in various directions. People are
:13:28. > :13:32.worried, particularly people who live in stock markets, they go up
:13:33. > :13:37.and they go down. I am an optimist. When you look at the sort of things
:13:38. > :13:42.that are going on in this world, with the development of technology.
:13:43. > :13:46.The idea is somehow that the computer age is finished is just
:13:47. > :13:55.beginning. There will be huge improvements in productivity and
:13:56. > :13:59.technology. Of course, of course. These people will be employed in
:14:00. > :14:04.other ways. If you think, a filing clerk in the 18th-century spent his
:14:05. > :14:08.days doing numbers one and two and three, boring as hell. Now they can
:14:09. > :14:16.be more productively employed. If you fear change, you will be gloomy.
:14:17. > :14:19.The Chinese economy has powered the global economy for years. You are
:14:20. > :14:23.seeing Russia and Brazil in recession. They are two other major
:14:24. > :14:27.economies that have helped to power the global economy. Africa is
:14:28. > :14:32.suffering due to a collapse in commodity prices. It is not just
:14:33. > :14:40.spooked markets reacting to what the tiny 's government is saying. That
:14:41. > :14:44.is the nature of human psychology. Of course, these markets are
:14:45. > :14:50.suffering. Of course, people feel gloomy. Long-term, the world is in a
:14:51. > :14:56.terrible place. I do not believe it for one moment. I would prefer the
:14:57. > :15:01.sunny side of the room. Ayew part of the Sunnyside of the room? I am in
:15:02. > :15:09.between. On a good London day, the Sun comes out and it rains again.
:15:10. > :15:14.Even here in the UK, gross now has been turned back a few points down
:15:15. > :15:20.on what we expected. The anticipated growth would be 2.5% and now we are
:15:21. > :15:24.saying 2.3%. We're looking at two percentage points but they are
:15:25. > :15:28.significant. Towards the end of last year, there was more optimism and
:15:29. > :15:33.almost going ahead of ourselves, whether it was about interest rates
:15:34. > :15:37.or growth. The reality is, now, the toll of the slowing down in Chinese
:15:38. > :15:44.economy and will prices, it is beginning to take its toll. It was
:15:45. > :15:47.takes a few months to kick in and we see the reaction to that. At the
:15:48. > :15:54.moment expectation is oil prices will stabilise. We still have to see
:15:55. > :16:00.if that stability last longer. And the Eurozone is not dead. It is not
:16:01. > :16:10.doing that badly. Germany is doing quite well. A bit of optimism.
:16:11. > :16:14.Deflation, as we see with Japan, it is a big thing. The European Central
:16:15. > :16:23.Bank and the countries are trying to do something. I would like to come
:16:24. > :16:28.back to this gloom. The story of the next year or two could be
:16:29. > :16:32.effectively competitive devaluation is and China exporting deflation, to
:16:33. > :16:35.put it in simple terms. The Eurozone is actually in a very tricky
:16:36. > :16:47.position and there are no more guns to blaze for Mario M Draghi. That is
:16:48. > :16:53.a serious concern. He denied this. He is forecasting it will continue
:16:54. > :16:57.to drop. If you look at Japan, they are still battling. It is hard to
:16:58. > :17:04.get out of that spiral downwards. Right. We had the German economy
:17:05. > :17:07.which is helping us to go forwards. We will just leave that there.
:17:08. > :17:10.Finally, one or two viewers have tweeted that they are fed up hearing
:17:11. > :17:13.So, with apologies to them, we are returning once more
:17:14. > :17:16.to the worst humanitarian crisis of the 21st century and the deal
:17:17. > :17:18.struck between Turkey and the European Union to shuttle
:17:19. > :17:31.The UN questioned its legality. It is the work ability of it as well.
:17:32. > :17:39.How would you do this? Legality, I think it is illegal. People arrived
:17:40. > :17:44.and claim asylum and then will be deported back to Turkey. For every
:17:45. > :17:47.Syrian sent back to Greece through Turkey, another Syrian will be
:17:48. > :17:52.picked up and sent to Europe. He gets to choose who goes where? These
:17:53. > :17:58.are people, not cattle. You put one person on a ship and another on a
:17:59. > :18:03.track. On the subject of legality, there are a lot of questions. The
:18:04. > :18:09.text gets 6 billion euros in addition to these free travel for
:18:10. > :18:15.citizens. -- the Turks. How does that have anything to do with the
:18:16. > :18:20.worst humanitarian crisis? The idea that Europe thinks it can put up a
:18:21. > :18:24.firewall between this humanitarian crisis and the continent by paying
:18:25. > :18:27.off the Turks is really very worrying. That is how it comes
:18:28. > :18:33.across. The real way you can sort this is by having the UNHCR system
:18:34. > :18:41.of resettlement functioning properly. Saying we will take this
:18:42. > :18:43.many refugees and the case is being processed in Turkey, rather than in
:18:44. > :18:47.Greece. That is what Angela Merkel and others are thinking about when
:18:48. > :18:52.they came up with the proposal. That is who you do not have everyone
:18:53. > :18:57.trying to process it themselves. We saw that when the Canadians decided
:18:58. > :19:02.they would take 25,000 refugees from Syria, they sent more immigration
:19:03. > :19:06.workers and officers to Beirut but actually work from Lebanon. Also
:19:07. > :19:10.some in Jordan. They were able to speed up the processes and do it
:19:11. > :19:19.legally, have on planes and see them through. It is possible. This is not
:19:20. > :19:24.the real world. It is messy, arguably dishonourable in some ways,
:19:25. > :19:28.possibly illegal. Actually it is the real world for of these European
:19:29. > :19:34.countries are faced by a huge crisis. If they do not deal with it
:19:35. > :19:37.in this way, there will be very, very adverse political development
:19:38. > :19:41.in all of these countries. Not just in Germany but also in this country
:19:42. > :19:45.and in France and the need to deal with the migrant crisis. Your
:19:46. > :19:50.solution will not work. It is a messy solution that it has
:19:51. > :19:59.possibilities. A whole series of things can go wrong. We need to go
:20:00. > :20:04.back and look at the UN resolutions and conventions which control
:20:05. > :20:08.migration and indeed giving succour to people who are fleeing war and
:20:09. > :20:12.persecution. There is a huge difference and that is recognised
:20:13. > :20:17.between economic migrants and people who are fleeing persecution. I would
:20:18. > :20:21.go further. I think we need to re-examine fundamentally what is
:20:22. > :20:25.going wrong. Every society has an obligation to protect people who are
:20:26. > :20:30.in danger of their lives. That protection does not have to extend
:20:31. > :20:36.over a lifetime. It can be during the period when these lives are
:20:37. > :20:41.being threatened. Permanent asylum need not be granted. That is a
:20:42. > :20:46.little clique sellable in Europe. The current situation is not. You
:20:47. > :20:53.have to either live in the real world or not. It is about the
:20:54. > :21:00.dictatorship killing the freedom of the press. They are blackmailing
:21:01. > :21:06.Europe and fostering... We have some morals. Europe is based on human
:21:07. > :21:12.rights protection on freedom and we can deal with that regime. It is a
:21:13. > :21:17.member of Nato. A member of Nato but it is immoral, this deal. The
:21:18. > :21:23.country is blackmailing us that the only solution is going through the
:21:24. > :21:28.UN. They separate the refugees. The problem is that America, Canada,
:21:29. > :21:34.Australia and the Gulf states are doing nothing, absolutely nothing.
:21:35. > :21:38.25,000 for Canada is shameful. In America, they are doing nothing.
:21:39. > :21:47.What we have to do is share the burden. This is the real world.
:21:48. > :21:54.People have been talking about lack of leadership. Angela Merkel showed
:21:55. > :21:59.leadership with this. We have an alternative, a very right wing
:22:00. > :22:04.anti-immigration party. Very important collections for Angela
:22:05. > :22:08.Merkel. That is the political reality. The political reality is
:22:09. > :22:14.lots of people in Europe feel grief at a time when the economy is not
:22:15. > :22:22.doing well. There are 1.2 million people coming in. They are there to
:22:23. > :22:26.stay. The problem is, we have to stop this. It will be 1.2 million
:22:27. > :22:33.this year, maybe 2 million the next year. It is not a problem for
:22:34. > :22:40.Europe, it is a problem for the world and the US should help. And
:22:41. > :22:47.the UK. What has the UK done? I am not going to apologise for the UK.
:22:48. > :22:53.The fact is, we have got to... I think and luck or has done this. She
:22:54. > :23:02.has said it is an impossible problem and has done it at source. -- Angela
:23:03. > :23:07.Merkel has done this. We live in the real world with the whole question
:23:08. > :23:15.of refugees. That means we would support Hitler. It is immoral. In
:23:16. > :23:23.Macedonia and other places, it is immoral. We have allowed an immoral
:23:24. > :23:28.situation. At least the EU and Turkey are talking and sitting down
:23:29. > :23:31.and trying to figure out a way. It is an imperfect deal, absolutely.
:23:32. > :23:37.Turkey needs money to deal with it. They are trying to figure out a way
:23:38. > :23:42.to stop the trade of people across the Aegean Sea. There are a lot of
:23:43. > :23:48.problems with that. They are looking at ways to stop it. Ultimately, this
:23:49. > :24:00.comes back to Syria. We need to figure out how to stop the flow of
:24:01. > :24:04.refugees from Syria. It is not just Syria, it is Iraq, Afghanistan. As
:24:05. > :24:13.we see more and more climate change problems, close of migration
:24:14. > :24:17.refugees will increase. As we see people having to move, not only
:24:18. > :24:22.fleeing war but fleeing the realities of climate change in the
:24:23. > :24:27.next decade or two or three, how will we deal with this? It is not
:24:28. > :24:32.just climate change. I accept it is part of that. They look on
:24:33. > :24:37.televisions and mobile phones and the livestock in the West. If I were
:24:38. > :24:41.in North Africa I would want to get there. -- the lifestyle. We have to
:24:42. > :24:46.deal with a real situation does involve tough choices. We cannot
:24:47. > :24:52.allow the present chaos to continue. That is really causing hardship. You
:24:53. > :24:57.cannot sign an agreement with a state that is blackmailing you. Of
:24:58. > :25:04.course it is blackmailing. There are a million Syrian refugees alone. You
:25:05. > :25:08.are looking at countries like Lebanon. More than a quarter of its
:25:09. > :25:16.people are Syrian refugees. The region is dealing with the crisis at
:25:17. > :25:22.the front. Labour are saying, -- they are saying we cannot contain
:25:23. > :25:27.this. This is the Achilles heel, the resettlement policy. You have the
:25:28. > :25:31.Hungarian Prime Minister refusing to take anymore and resistance from
:25:32. > :25:35.other East European countries that say no, we do not want to stand up
:25:36. > :25:43.to this. Angela Merkel can strike this deal. Where they go? They do
:25:44. > :25:45.not want to go in France. It has a deficit and they take more. They all
:25:46. > :25:48.want to come to England. That's it for Dateline
:25:49. > :25:50.London for this week. Thanks for all your
:25:51. > :25:52.tweets @gavinesler. We're back next week
:25:53. > :26:20.at the same time. Hallow. We have quite a change in
:26:21. > :26:24.the weather coming up over the next couple of days. An area of high
:26:25. > :26:28.pressure will build across the country. That will bring mainly dry
:26:29. > :26:30.conditions through the weekend with sunny spells breaking throughput
:26:31. > :26:31.that said, we