:00:00. > 3:59:59bringing lots of cloud. If you get any sunshine, send us a picture of
:00:00. > :00:27.it. This week, a spectacular resignation
:00:28. > :00:32.from the British Government, can the Turkey agreement work
:00:33. > :00:34.and is Donald Trump now unstoppable? My guests this week are -
:00:35. > :00:37.Alex Deane, from Conservative Home, Thomas Kielinger of Die Welt,
:00:38. > :00:42.Greg Katz, from Associated Press, and Eunice Goes, who's
:00:43. > :00:46.a Portuguese writer. So an explosive resignation
:00:47. > :00:48.in the British government. The Minister for Work
:00:49. > :00:51.and Pensions Iain Duncan Smith resigned over the proposed
:00:52. > :01:00.introduction of cuts to disability Cuts he described as
:01:01. > :01:15."a compromise too far." Thomas, your thoughts on that? From
:01:16. > :01:18.his point of view it might be a compromise to far. But his
:01:19. > :01:24.resignation is a step too far. He says the budget has too many
:01:25. > :01:32.political overtones. I think is all resignation is full of political
:01:33. > :01:35.offer tones. There is this lack of team spirit. -- overtones. He should
:01:36. > :01:40.have known about all this coming in the budget, he could've chosen
:01:41. > :01:49.another moment to resign or to let the cabinet no that this could lead
:01:50. > :01:52.to his resignation. This looks as if it is a plunge to this government.
:01:53. > :01:59.There is no need for that. If he is opposed to it, there is a better way
:02:00. > :02:04.to do it, warning his colleagues that this may be in the offing. I am
:02:05. > :02:16.not so sure. He has been struggling with George Oswald was Mark --'s
:02:17. > :02:21.eyes on his department. Iain Duncan Smith has struggled with all the
:02:22. > :02:27.intentions of George Osborne, there has been the mess of Universal
:02:28. > :02:33.Credit, the tax credits, they do not get along. They do not get on at
:02:34. > :02:41.all, so it was the tip of the iceberg. There is also another
:02:42. > :02:45.thing, direct set. If these things happen in politics, they do happen.
:02:46. > :02:49.When they resign, they tried to use as much damage to create as much
:02:50. > :03:03.damage as they can to the government. -- Brexit. But they are
:03:04. > :03:07.policy. He is on the out and did not want to sit by and watch this being
:03:08. > :03:14.done in 's name. This accentuates all of the divisions they are facing
:03:15. > :03:19.with Brexit. Somebody used the word dagger, this could be a situation
:03:20. > :03:24.where the camera in government unravels loses the Brexit vote, or
:03:25. > :03:28.they may face three or four months of trauma and then consolidate
:03:29. > :03:36.later. But they are in a crisis period right now. How much damage to
:03:37. > :03:38.using their as to the Chancellor, given his personal relationship, and
:03:39. > :03:44.to David Cameron and the accusations brought by Ian Duncan Smith, in
:03:45. > :03:49.effect the government does not care? It is pretty significant. I disagree
:03:50. > :03:53.with Thomas that it is just a personal thing. I think Iain Duncan
:03:54. > :04:02.Smith is a very principled man. And as a former leader of the party, he
:04:03. > :04:05.is someone of great standing in the party, admired by the grassroots,
:04:06. > :04:09.and he is on the right of the party, and were seen as a standard-bearer
:04:10. > :04:16.within the Cabinet for traditional conservative views and values. All
:04:17. > :04:20.said, him going is a criticism of home -- of both the Chancellor and
:04:21. > :04:25.the Prime Minister. There is a twist of the tale that was reflected in
:04:26. > :04:29.your interviewer earlier. He did not agree with these cuts. He took his
:04:30. > :04:34.position in Cabinet seriously. He was tasked with going out and
:04:35. > :04:39.defending them and then he did it. Then number ten went undermining
:04:40. > :04:45.him. Anyone faced with that kind of frustration, I told you I did not
:04:46. > :04:50.believe in it, you made me do it, now you are undervaluing me and try
:04:51. > :04:54.to make me look as the bad guy. Anyone would be frustrated with
:04:55. > :05:00.something like that. Just listening to all of the chatter around there's
:05:01. > :05:05.over the past 24 hours, some are seeing it as a tussle between the
:05:06. > :05:11.rich and the poor. What to using Thomas? I do not think I would go
:05:12. > :05:15.that far. It is too simplistic view, the so-called rich who have
:05:16. > :05:20.benefited from the attacks in relaxations. Business groups are
:05:21. > :05:28.those who provide more jobs. It is not just money that they are
:05:29. > :05:30.ditching and putting in their bank accounts, they are partly
:05:31. > :05:40.responsible for giving a better boost to the economy. So I try to
:05:41. > :05:43.steer away from that simplistic view which the Labour Party would love to
:05:44. > :05:49.do. But coming back to Alex's statement, there is a personal one
:05:50. > :05:56.in that he is not objecting to the way he is being treated. She is not
:05:57. > :06:07.much in love with the position on Europe. The one that Osborne and
:06:08. > :06:15.Cameron have been taking. He is a prominent member of the Brexit camp.
:06:16. > :06:23.He must know that by making this statement at this point, it adds to
:06:24. > :06:27.the poisonous mix which makes this wreck isn't -- resignations of toxic
:06:28. > :06:30.and he must have known that despite his personal upsets. There is one
:06:31. > :06:37.aspect we have not spoken about. This promotes Stephen Crabb. He now
:06:38. > :06:42.becomes Work and Pensions Secretary, he is on the left of the party. The
:06:43. > :06:46.cabinet has seen an upgrade for someone who wants us to remain in,
:06:47. > :06:49.and an exit for someone who wants to leave. He leaves the Welsh portfolio
:06:50. > :06:55.at a time when we should have a devolution bill for the whole of
:06:56. > :07:00.Wales. They wanted to introduce that on Saint Davids Day. That seemed to
:07:01. > :07:03.go nowhere. On his last brief, he seemed not to have delivered on the
:07:04. > :07:08.main thing he was in post-war, his reward in government as promotion.
:07:09. > :07:16.But will he be able to stand up to George Osborne? He will have two to
:07:17. > :07:21.the government line. Which is normally what is expected of Cabinet
:07:22. > :07:26.members. I would like to go back to the point of Thomas about the whole
:07:27. > :07:34.issue of the rich versus the poor. This is a point that has been made
:07:35. > :07:36.not just my Iain Duncan Smith but quite a few Conservative
:07:37. > :07:39.backbenchers and quite a few of the grassroots to fuel this government,
:07:40. > :07:44.all the measures and about a particular section of society and
:07:45. > :07:54.punishing some others. We have seen that with the attempts of the tax
:07:55. > :07:58.credits. The sham of 2012 when there was the 50p tax rate. If we are
:07:59. > :08:05.thinking about new cuts to come, maybe there are new cuts, but Regent
:08:06. > :08:10.should -- reintroduce the 50p tax cut and we would not have to hit any
:08:11. > :08:16.other people. The slogan for the Conservative Party through all this
:08:17. > :08:23.is all in it together. Iain Duncan Smith has said he does not see it
:08:24. > :08:31.that way. I think the longer and larger implications for Brexit are
:08:32. > :08:35.what this is about. That is in tatters today. Who knows whether
:08:36. > :08:38.this will undercut the Prime Minister Boz s' arguments are
:08:39. > :08:45.staying in the EU. I think the whole situation is tenuous at the moment.
:08:46. > :08:57.The migrant situation is getting more tense. Is it not that we could
:08:58. > :09:02.have any discussion and bring it back to Brexit? Alex, do you think
:09:03. > :09:09.it is more the crisis is that the party is going to have to look at
:09:10. > :09:12.itself, the way that it portrays itself, and the way it does balance
:09:13. > :09:16.these policies? This is a leadership that is further away from one nation
:09:17. > :09:22.conservatism, to some respect Iain Duncan Smith stood for. His purpose
:09:23. > :09:28.in life was to realise welfare rearrangements that he believed in
:09:29. > :09:30.and was passionate about. The leadership has become more distant
:09:31. > :09:34.from that because of this resignation. On the Brexit point you
:09:35. > :09:38.were making, if the leadership had said that the Cabinet and wider
:09:39. > :09:45.members of the Parliamentary party had to tour the leader's lying, it
:09:46. > :09:50.would tour the party apart. One point that was mentioned, the
:09:51. > :09:55.general perception was that this was an issue of rich versus poor. It is
:09:56. > :09:59.not necessarily the truth. The government has failed to make a case
:10:00. > :10:03.for why they have introduced tax relief for corporate businesses and
:10:04. > :10:09.so forth. They have a good reason for doing so, there is not enough
:10:10. > :10:15.employment coming that is worth taxing it. That is not a fact, that
:10:16. > :10:19.is a matter of opinion. I was just saying. On that fact a matter of
:10:20. > :10:26.opinion, I want to throw a statistic in. The bookmakers have cut the odds
:10:27. > :10:30.of George Osborne becoming leader of the Conservative Party because of
:10:31. > :10:32.this. So we will just watch that. Boris Johnson must be rubbing his
:10:33. > :10:35.hands in glee. European Union and Turkish leaders
:10:36. > :10:37.celebrated a "historic day" after sealing a widely-criticized
:10:38. > :10:40.pact to send thousands of asylum-seekers back to Turkey -
:10:41. > :10:43.a deal that will cost millions and require the rapid dispatch
:10:44. > :10:46.of thousands of experts to Greece to undertake the complicated task
:10:47. > :11:06.of making the plan a reality. Eunice? It is going to be extremely
:11:07. > :11:10.difficult. We need to remember that Greece is a bankrupt country, a
:11:11. > :11:15.country with incredible problems. It has been a huge challenge to process
:11:16. > :11:20.and integrate the over 1 million refugees that have entered Greece
:11:21. > :11:24.just in 2015 and it has far more coming through the Greek borders and
:11:25. > :11:30.through the Greek islands since the beginning of the year. So this is a
:11:31. > :11:33.massive challenge for the Greek government and I do not know what
:11:34. > :11:38.kind of logistical support you will need to give. Money to create new
:11:39. > :11:42.refugee centres and settlements, and people with the resources and skills
:11:43. > :11:48.to process all the bureaucracy. It is good to be extremely hard to find
:11:49. > :11:50.birth certificates, all that documentation that proves these
:11:51. > :11:56.individuals are in fact Syrian refugees, Syrian citizens who needs
:11:57. > :12:03.support and need to receive the status of refugee. So it is going to
:12:04. > :12:05.be very difficult and all the European governments have been very
:12:06. > :12:14.slow at agreeing the releasing of the money. They say it is going to
:12:15. > :12:17.be quicker this time. It is also the legality and this is a deal that
:12:18. > :12:23.clearly stretches the humanitarian commitments of the European Union to
:12:24. > :12:26.its very limits. It is one of the harshest deals on how to deal with
:12:27. > :12:32.refugees in Europe since the Second World War. And that is hard, it is
:12:33. > :12:37.hard to beat that record in terms of how badly we handled refugees.
:12:38. > :12:43.Turkey is not a safe place for refugees. And it is quite shocking
:12:44. > :12:49.that we are giving free safe passage through Turkish citizens at a time
:12:50. > :12:52.when the Turkish government is behaving so badly with its own
:12:53. > :12:57.citizens. You have to look at the political benefits to one of the
:12:58. > :13:01.embattled of the leaders. That is Angela Merkel, the Chancellor of
:13:02. > :13:06.Germany. She will say we have a breakthrough year. The numbers of
:13:07. > :13:14.Syrian refugees who will be allowed to settle properly and legally in
:13:15. > :13:18.Europe is down to 72,000 which is a pittance. We do not know if that is
:13:19. > :13:28.good to happen or not. The migrants could find other routes. Via Libya.
:13:29. > :13:35.We have to secure the AG and seeing part of that world. But Angela
:13:36. > :13:41.Merkel has led to camp the nerve of Germans, the threat of ever more
:13:42. > :13:45.millions of refugees has been dealt with and we are down to a manageable
:13:46. > :13:53.number, never mind how difficult it is to bring that about. Turkey is a
:13:54. > :14:09.doubtful customer. It might help her along. There is a reason for people
:14:10. > :14:16.in Germany, when people were asked, would you agree with people living
:14:17. > :14:20.in the remaining camps? Would you let them open the borders? There is
:14:21. > :14:25.a growing acceptance of the moral case that Angela Merkel has been
:14:26. > :14:33.making generally about the need for Europe... She has got thumped in the
:14:34. > :14:39.elections. I do not know about the growing case of accepting the
:14:40. > :14:42.position. Where I do agree with you is that it is a classic European
:14:43. > :14:48.settlement, it is people coming from Turkey, with Greece being affected
:14:49. > :14:55.the most and it is really about politics in Germany. To that extent
:14:56. > :15:01.I agree. Younis touched on the fact that people will be able to get into
:15:02. > :15:08.Europe. Turks do not have control of their borders. -- Eunice. You are
:15:09. > :15:11.raising a lot of security questions, with allowing people access into the
:15:12. > :15:28.European Union without documentation. There is this past
:15:29. > :15:34.the passable -- parcel problem. Angela Merkel is the most powerful
:15:35. > :15:40.woman in Europe. She has spent a terrible European leader. The
:15:41. > :15:46.eurozone crisis is still unsolved. We have been passing the parcel on
:15:47. > :15:49.this one, and we will be passing the parcel on the refugee crisis for
:15:50. > :15:55.several years to come. When you think about how do millions of
:15:56. > :15:59.settings, you are talking about old people, women, children, who are
:16:00. > :16:04.coming to Europe, they are leaving their homes and everything behind,
:16:05. > :16:10.they are doing perilous journeys. 4000 people died in the seas
:16:11. > :16:14.drowning. This is not people who do with a light heart, let's go on a
:16:15. > :16:20.European adventure. It is very serious decision people make. Isis
:16:21. > :16:24.is a western creation, it has been very much helped by Western
:16:25. > :16:28.interventions in Iraq and elsewhere the West, Europe has a
:16:29. > :16:35.responsibility to help those refugees, to settle and find self
:16:36. > :16:42.haven. Angela Merkel is right to say, you must help and help solve
:16:43. > :16:52.this. Basically she slightly follows your argument. This is a merger or
:16:53. > :16:58.-- moral challenge. When you get this kind of migration, you have to
:16:59. > :17:05.look at what caused it. There is economic migration for which Angela
:17:06. > :17:09.Merkel has to take responsibility. She says, one, come all. Stage two
:17:10. > :17:18.was where did all these people come from? Stage three was that everyone
:17:19. > :17:22.was going to have to pay for this. It is a lesson learned in the hard
:17:23. > :17:29.way. The whole migrant issue has been resolved. But I the Greeks
:17:30. > :17:33.going to pay for it? And the Italians. Everyone is going to pay
:17:34. > :17:40.for it in the end. What about paying for it in terms of conscience? You
:17:41. > :17:46.spoke about this in previous situations, Eunice. Most people
:17:47. > :17:54.don't care because if politicians are reacting like this, most people
:17:55. > :17:59.do not care, it is not their problem, it is something that
:18:00. > :18:02.happens far away. And those who do care, and there has been amazing
:18:03. > :18:08.actions from society, I hope they will put at pressure on their
:18:09. > :18:14.governments. The situation in Cali is a shame and conscience. Everyone
:18:15. > :18:19.has to think very hardly about those responsibilities. Greg, how do you
:18:20. > :18:23.think history will judge us? I think history will say, when the chips
:18:24. > :18:30.were down, Europe could not do anything effective and I think it is
:18:31. > :18:34.a great shame. This is the largest movement of people in my lifetime
:18:35. > :18:40.and nobody has stood up with a decent idea and I respect Angela
:18:41. > :18:50.Merkel for at least trying to explain this some ideals and it did
:18:51. > :18:58.blow up in face. And the whole system is in disarray. And I think
:18:59. > :19:03.this damages the idea. I did some man in the street staff in the past
:19:04. > :19:08.few weeks, all of the Brits I spoke to have said I will vote to leave
:19:09. > :19:16.the EU if it will solve the immigration problem for the UK. One
:19:17. > :19:19.of the reasons it is not just the fault of politicians, people
:19:20. > :19:26.themselves are conflicted to how to react. Alex rightly pointed out that
:19:27. > :19:36.Angela Merkel has been affected in local elections.
:19:37. > :19:44.While the majority of people are on the other side, they are conflicted
:19:45. > :19:48.like the politicians are as to how to deal with this unexpected issue.
:19:49. > :19:51.A final thought? Europe as a whole 28 cannot come together on this.
:19:52. > :19:54.Thank you for your thoughts on this. The Donald Trump juggernaut rolls
:19:55. > :19:56.on seemingly sweeping up everything And what of those still challenging
:19:57. > :20:04.- does Ohio Governor John Kasich have what it takes
:20:05. > :20:18.to take on the Donald? Greg? I think in terms of the
:20:19. > :20:24.Republican nomination, the Donald is unstoppable at this point. We have
:20:25. > :20:29.seen a concerted effort by the Republican leaders in the last ten
:20:30. > :20:33.days to come up of a way to stop him and derail him and set up some sort
:20:34. > :20:38.of open convention. I do not think it is going to fly. I think he is
:20:39. > :20:42.good to have delegates. The whole primary system has evolved and
:20:43. > :20:46.changed and no voters do have their say and do play the primary rule in
:20:47. > :20:52.choosing the nominee. They are going for drop. It is true as numbers do
:20:53. > :21:01.not pass the 50% mark. Something weird could happen. But the idea
:21:02. > :21:07.that the Republican body can stop is wrong. What you think might happen?
:21:08. > :21:12.An electoral disaster and a nominee who is openly calling for some
:21:13. > :21:16.policies that would defy the Constitution. So they are very, very
:21:17. > :21:19.concerned but they do not have the power structure any more to stop it.
:21:20. > :21:27.If he were to become president, the rest of the world watching with
:21:28. > :21:34.what? Their behaviour is to some extent curtailed by the laws in the
:21:35. > :21:39.Constitution. I do not think any one man could wreck one of the greatest
:21:40. > :21:59.countries of the world. Nevertheless, I view a Trump
:22:00. > :22:02.presidency with some this concern. The nomination process in the United
:22:03. > :22:07.States on both sides as demonstrated the weakness of the so-called
:22:08. > :22:12.establishment. On the Republican side it was obvious. 14 candidates
:22:13. > :22:17.going in different directions, no one could control it. When they all
:22:18. > :22:26.decided they needed to stop Eunice, they couldn't do it. Hillary, a
:22:27. > :22:30.deeply flawed candidate, a lot tied to her husband and maybe indicted in
:22:31. > :22:36.the course of her candidacy here because of e-mail scandal. They had
:22:37. > :22:41.a better candidate, not just tucked away somewhere, a sitting vice
:22:42. > :22:45.president who you may say, Joe why do not -- why don't choose go for
:22:46. > :22:50.this campaign question mark the couldn't stop Bernie Sanders from
:22:51. > :22:56.running and posing serious challenges to Hillary Clinton. That
:22:57. > :23:00.has changed radically. This was a series of reforms in the 60s that
:23:01. > :23:07.was popular at the time because it was seen to give power to the people
:23:08. > :23:13.so that in the 70s you got the Democrats elected. The system has
:23:14. > :23:19.changed so that the party establishment is neutered at this
:23:20. > :23:25.moment. They have no power at all. Do you think it reflects the lack of
:23:26. > :23:27.candidates? You have to have strong candidates. What does it say about
:23:28. > :23:33.the political system for those coming through? What it says is that
:23:34. > :23:38.the political party are really out of touch with the normal voter
:23:39. > :23:42.because they did not see this coming. Everyone thought that Donald
:23:43. > :23:45.Trump was a joke so no one talk seriously. And now it looks as if he
:23:46. > :23:54.is good to get the Republican nomination. So perhaps if the
:23:55. > :23:58.leaderships, of the different political parties, spend more time
:23:59. > :24:01.trying to understand what the ordinary voter thinks and wants,
:24:02. > :24:06.what other concerns. What they were not thinking was that the global
:24:07. > :24:08.financial crisis happened a long time ago and there has been some
:24:09. > :24:13.economic growth. We have had eight years distance from that global
:24:14. > :24:17.financial crisis. People are taking stock of what has happened to their
:24:18. > :24:21.lives. What we are seeing in America is a lot of anger. People are very
:24:22. > :24:25.angry with their politicians, corporate leaders, the general state
:24:26. > :24:30.of the economy. They are saying, why cannot my children go to university
:24:31. > :24:35.question mark why do my children leave so much debt? Why can they not
:24:36. > :24:40.get proper jobs? Why are we dying, this is the problem of white males
:24:41. > :24:45.in America, why are the dying younger than they were 2030 years
:24:46. > :24:51.ago? These are big social and political problems that for the
:24:52. > :25:04.moment, for the past decades, the two main parties have decided to
:25:05. > :25:07.ignore. 20, -- 20, 30 years ago. The establishment of parties and figures
:25:08. > :25:11.did not seem to rise to the challenge eight years ago when the
:25:12. > :25:14.financial crisis occurred. We still make them responsible for having
:25:15. > :25:18.caused the crisis in the first place. Well this may have been eight
:25:19. > :25:27.years ago, it is still with us all the time. The U -- economic problems
:25:28. > :25:33.in the UK are still affected by the problem eight years ago. Do we get
:25:34. > :25:37.the politicians we deserve? Or the politicians we vote for? Thank you
:25:38. > :25:40.for taking part in the discussion today.
:25:41. > :25:42.That's it for Dateline London for this week -
:25:43. > :25:44.we're back next week at the same time.
:25:45. > :25:46.You can of course comment on the programme on Twitter
:25:47. > :26:19.A distinct absence of colour in the skies above the UK today, but we
:26:20. > :26:20.have found a