:00:24. > :00:25.Hello and welcome to Dateline London.
:00:26. > :00:28.Britain finely balanced on In or Out of the EU, at least
:00:29. > :00:37.My guests today are Marc Roche of Le Point and Le Soir,
:00:38. > :00:39.Stephanie Baker of Bloomberg Markets,
:00:40. > :00:42.Abdel Bari Atwan who is an Arab writer and commentator and
:00:43. > :00:52.The opinion polls, which, of course, proved less than accurate in last
:00:53. > :00:54.year's General Election, now suggest that those planning
:00:55. > :00:57.to vote IN and those voting OUT in the EU referendum are broadly
:00:58. > :01:00.neck and neck, although many millions apparently have not
:01:01. > :01:19.Do you agree everything is to play for? I agree with that and recent
:01:20. > :01:25.polls suggest 39% for each side. We wind up with two competing political
:01:26. > :01:31.truisms. The first is that very often people say don't know and they
:01:32. > :01:37.don't vote. If that is right and we get a load turnout, which after the
:01:38. > :01:41.first and people like us being fascinated, many people aren't
:01:42. > :01:48.energised enough to turn out and I think that favours the Leave side.
:01:49. > :01:51.The other political truism is people who are undecided in referendums
:01:52. > :01:56.tended to break towards the status quo or what they think is the status
:01:57. > :02:03.quo. As in Scotland? In most referendums. Asked the Swiss. If you
:02:04. > :02:13.want to intend to the status quo, have a referendum. The European
:02:14. > :02:18.Union is evolving and its evolving away from British interests and more
:02:19. > :02:21.towards the interests of the Eurozone and more towards an
:02:22. > :02:25.integrated project. The other thing to remember about the deal the prime
:02:26. > :02:34.and Asda negotiated is that it gives up one big thing, the British
:02:35. > :02:39.ability to veto -- the Prime Minister, around British interests
:02:40. > :02:43.and affairs and that's one thing people haven't got through to people
:02:44. > :02:48.who will vote about it. So what do people have to do? The Remain
:02:49. > :02:56.campaign had to inspire people with a positive vision. And the Leave
:02:57. > :03:01.campaign has to do the reverse, say there is an optimistic future for
:03:02. > :03:05.the UK, able to decide its own treaty agreements and to minimise
:03:06. > :03:10.any fears people have about the risks of leaving.
:03:11. > :03:17.What do you think would swing it for those who haven't decided? The fear
:03:18. > :03:23.of the unknown has decided that ten years of uncertainty will follow a
:03:24. > :03:32.Leave. If you look at calendar which -- calendar which has given an
:03:33. > :03:40.example, it has given an example -- Canada. It still doesn't cover
:03:41. > :03:43.financial services. For ten years minimum, because Europe won't be in
:03:44. > :03:49.a rush to sign anything cause the onus is on the British side, for ten
:03:50. > :03:54.years there will be uncertainty, economic problems, problems of trade
:03:55. > :03:59.and foreign investment, many companies might decide not to stay
:04:00. > :04:07.in Britain all stay but not developed their investment. In a
:04:08. > :04:09.way, the status quo, like in the Scottish referendum... Do you take
:04:10. > :04:17.the point that there is no status quo because Europe is evolving? No,
:04:18. > :04:25.it is not that. Europe is Europe and you are a member or you are not.
:04:26. > :04:32.Europe is Europe. We have rules and we renegotiate with the British,
:04:33. > :04:38.which I think was very generous of us, and it is not evolving. It is
:04:39. > :04:42.continuing to evolve with Britain according to the problems of the
:04:43. > :04:49.day. What do you think would swing it? There are two camps. The first
:04:50. > :04:54.camp wants to leave and they are using the politics of fear, saying
:04:55. > :04:58.if we stay in Europe it will be terrorism, migrations and it will
:04:59. > :05:04.affect our standard of living. The other people would like to stay in
:05:05. > :05:14.the European Union. Both say the economy is important and it will
:05:15. > :05:19.suffer. Now, when it comes to the real data and when the people go and
:05:20. > :05:24.vote, I have a feeling that the same as what happened in Scotland could
:05:25. > :05:27.be repeated. The economy will prevail. People look at their
:05:28. > :05:32.interests and if they feel the pound will drop and the economy will be
:05:33. > :05:39.affected and their standard of living will go down and they feel
:05:40. > :05:45.investment. Coming to Britain, I have a feeling that, in the end, the
:05:46. > :05:51.23rd of June, maybe people who would like to stay in the European Union
:05:52. > :05:54.will prevail. Isn't there a difference between the Scottish
:05:55. > :05:58.referendum and the one we are about to have in that no one really
:05:59. > :06:03.thought migration would be a major issue in Scotland, but in our Brexit
:06:04. > :06:09.referendum, it really is and it is properly the number one issue. From
:06:10. > :06:12.the polls I've seen, it's the economy and those consequences which
:06:13. > :06:19.are far more important. I don't think most voters look at this...
:06:20. > :06:24.They are voters -- voting on the staters quota. They don't think the
:06:25. > :06:28.EU is evolving. I'd then think that message has got through. The most
:06:29. > :06:33.interesting poll was a couple of the -- please go saying voters could be
:06:34. > :06:39.swayed if they thought it could mean as much as ?25 less or more in their
:06:40. > :06:44.pocket as a result. If you look at the most respected economists, the
:06:45. > :06:49.best case and worst-case scenario, the UK economy would shrink, at
:06:50. > :06:54.least in the year to -- near-term as a result of a vote to leave.
:06:55. > :06:58.Comments from the IMF this week, there is increasing concern that
:06:59. > :07:02.this is not just about that will impact the UK economy but it could
:07:03. > :07:05.unsettle the global economy. It could be a shock to many
:07:06. > :07:13.institutions and mean the unravelling of the EU etc -- except
:07:14. > :07:17.-- itself. So much of the campaign is based around the fact that
:07:18. > :07:21.Britain couldn't do well on its own, but then look at all the apple cart
:07:22. > :07:29.it would upset. You can't have it both ways. There is a false
:07:30. > :07:34.assumption. The Leave campaign says Britain is the fifth strongest
:07:35. > :07:40.economy in the world. That's true. It has nothing to do with being part
:07:41. > :07:45.of the EU. It's irrespective. It would remain the fifth largest --
:07:46. > :07:51.largest economy and even if half of the trade is with the EU it has no
:07:52. > :07:58.impact. The single market is what made Britain the fifth biggest
:07:59. > :08:02.economy and it will not... What a remarkable assertion given the red
:08:03. > :08:08.tape and bureaucracy that goes on in European trade. If I may say, your
:08:09. > :08:15.Canadian example is peculiar because unlike their command me, economy,
:08:16. > :08:21.which is peripheral to European trade, on the day we lead -- leave
:08:22. > :08:24.the EU we will be Europe's number one trading partner so don't you
:08:25. > :08:29.think that will be a more pressing need to reach a trade agreement than
:08:30. > :08:32.with Canada? Do you honestly think that trade agreement we would
:08:33. > :08:45.negotiate would be better than the one we have now? Yes. How do you
:08:46. > :08:49.know that? Perhaps you can tell me who will win the horse races
:08:50. > :08:54.afternoon if you can predict the future! And the sovereignty
:08:55. > :08:58.question, it concerns everybody. How much sovereignty people have. And
:08:59. > :09:07.much sovereignty does any country have in a world of globalisation of
:09:08. > :09:10.capital. And then things like defence and the independent nuclear
:09:11. > :09:16.deterrent? Boris Johnson picked up on it also, that we are not southern
:09:17. > :09:20.states in the way we were 100 years ago. Not in the same way, but there
:09:21. > :09:25.are different gradings of sovereignty. I believe who governs
:09:26. > :09:30.Britain remains a important question. Very few people would say
:09:31. > :09:36.it is only Westminster. Whilst you are right we consented to enter into
:09:37. > :09:40.agreements, only with EE you is it a political project. The Chinese are
:09:41. > :09:46.Americans don't need to enter into a political union with Europe to trade
:09:47. > :09:54.and nor do we. President Obama seems likely to urge us to remain and
:09:55. > :09:57.Boris Johnson is right to say that it is intervention because he would
:09:58. > :10:06.never advocate that for his own country. When we talk about
:10:07. > :10:12.sovereignty, are we saying to Brexit, for example, if you want to
:10:13. > :10:18.leave... Why should you ask the Scots to stay in the UK? Or the
:10:19. > :10:23.Welsh? Why not asked Northern Ireland to stay? It could reflect
:10:24. > :10:30.badly on this country and the unity of this country. We have a feeling
:10:31. > :10:37.of the Leave campaign being white, male and very no countryfolk. All
:10:38. > :10:46.women from ethnic minorities. It is striking when you see it. These
:10:47. > :10:51.groups... You need to get out more! Did you see the line-up of the Leave
:10:52. > :10:58.campaign? One black guy and that's all otherwise it's all white.
:10:59. > :11:01.Britain is diverse and if I were an ethnic minority here... One of the
:11:02. > :11:06.respectful things about this debate is that is not being directed along
:11:07. > :11:17.racial lines. You doing that is regrettable. No, look at Ukip. One
:11:18. > :11:25.final thought. It is difficult to find foreign journalists who take a
:11:26. > :11:29.Brexit view. One of the things that strikes me about the campaign which
:11:30. > :11:40.has just kicked off officially is there are too many people saying
:11:41. > :11:44.both sides... The bogeyman. The NHS isn't safe... But I don't think
:11:45. > :11:51.people by that stuff. I think people want a positive vision of being in
:11:52. > :12:01.or out. I have an optimistic view of this country's sovereign ability to
:12:02. > :12:06.make its own path outside of the EU. The NHS and so forth will be an
:12:07. > :12:10.issue. My view is these project fears on both sides are awash
:12:11. > :12:13.against each other and it's the perception of what you want most for
:12:14. > :12:23.the future that will determine the way people vote. Today, the British
:12:24. > :12:33.contribution to the EU which is ?10 billion could be used to improve the
:12:34. > :12:41.national health. Unbelievable! Just now, if this country leaves the EU,
:12:42. > :12:50.the National health... Is not the fault of the EU. It's an impossible
:12:51. > :12:52.task. We will return to this quite a bit over the next few weeks.
:12:53. > :12:55.General Colin Powell once observed that, rather as in a pottery shop,
:12:56. > :12:57.in international affairs if you break it you own it.
:12:58. > :13:00.Britain, France and the United States broke the Gaddafi
:13:01. > :13:02.regime in Libya - what, if any, is our responsibility to do
:13:03. > :13:09.something about the mess which has followed?
:13:10. > :13:16.It feeds into immigration and perceptions of North African
:13:17. > :13:23.terrorism and all kinds of things. Yes, and when we talked about Nato
:13:24. > :13:28.intervention in Libya, we warned that it would be a springboard for
:13:29. > :13:32.illegal immigrants and maybe hundreds of thousands of them to
:13:33. > :13:38.come to Europe. Also, it's a tribal society and when you break it it is
:13:39. > :13:45.difficult to fix it again. After five years of a huge mess in Libya,
:13:46. > :13:48.the armed militia are ransacking the country and Libya, as we said, is
:13:49. > :13:53.supposed to be the role model for the whole of the Middle East.
:13:54. > :14:01.Instead of that, a prosperous country, it used to have about $65
:14:02. > :14:06.billion oil revenue for a small population of 6 million. Now, what
:14:07. > :14:15.is happening? Half of the population are outside Libya. Into an easier
:14:16. > :14:20.and another 1.5 million in Egypt. Also, people are starving. Imagine a
:14:21. > :14:24.rich country like that starving! The country has three governments and
:14:25. > :14:31.three armies and three parliaments. This is the problem. No central
:14:32. > :14:36.services, water or electricity. This is the problem we are facing. The UN
:14:37. > :14:42.managed to set up a so-called national unity government and this
:14:43. > :14:46.government, OK, it's fine, but how it should have the muscle, the army
:14:47. > :14:55.and security forces and infrastructure full --? I believe
:14:56. > :14:59.the aim of this government is to say to Nato, please, come again to give
:15:00. > :15:07.legitimacy to the second intervention. So more Nato? Because
:15:08. > :15:16.in order to keep this government in power it has to have a military
:15:17. > :15:20.muscle. Who will give it that? The only people like Tunisia or Egypt
:15:21. > :15:25.say, no, because it would create more mess than what existed. So they
:15:26. > :15:35.need a sort of national reconciliation. The Islamic State is
:15:36. > :15:41.there. They have about 10,000 fighters there and they are trying
:15:42. > :15:48.to control the oil in Libya. It is extremely dangerous. This is not
:15:49. > :15:53.somebody else's problem. Not just the moral question of intervention
:15:54. > :16:01.but it is eight question of whether it will visit us -- a question. It
:16:02. > :16:06.has been also in the US presidential campaign and Putin got into it
:16:07. > :16:09.because this week he called on President Obama a decent man for
:16:10. > :16:14.having admitted the Libya intervention was one of his greatest
:16:15. > :16:20.regrets of his presidency. Hillary Clinton has been forced to defend
:16:21. > :16:24.her behaviour in Libya and it has put a spotlight on how the US
:16:25. > :16:28.managed the aftermath and what they could have done differently. You
:16:29. > :16:34.have a lot of Clinton advisers saying that it was all going quite
:16:35. > :16:38.well until Benghazi and then the US had to retreat. Actually, the
:16:39. > :16:46.Libyans had been reluctant to accept any form of help for security
:16:47. > :16:51.services and security forces on the ground. That created a real problem
:16:52. > :16:56.in terms of trying to salvage and guide Libya in the aftermath of the
:16:57. > :17:01.intervention. Now there is the whole question, was the intervention right
:17:02. > :17:07.and should we have done it? Going back and looking at the time in
:17:08. > :17:14.2011, it wasn't about bombing Libya to create a democracy. It was about
:17:15. > :17:19.stopping Gaddafi from stopping at a massacre against his own civilians
:17:20. > :17:23.and that was a noble cause which you can't question. But Nato committed
:17:24. > :17:27.massacres in Libya. Could you give me any reference to how many Libyans
:17:28. > :17:32.were killed because of Nato's intervention. We talk about
:17:33. > :17:40.supposedly daffy massacres, which did not take place anyway, we know
:17:41. > :17:49.that Nato warplanes massacred people in Libya. We can't run to
:17:50. > :17:52.experiments, can we? With the opposition that Gaddafi didn't
:17:53. > :18:00.commit atrocities against his own people? There was anticipation that
:18:01. > :18:10.Gaddafi would massacre his own people. Now people are looking at
:18:11. > :18:18.comparing Libya to Syria, right? If people had not intervened in Libya,
:18:19. > :18:27.it could be like Syria. Libyan people are chanting for Gaddafi now.
:18:28. > :18:33.They say... There is no stomach for another war. We have so many other
:18:34. > :18:39.problems. The problem of Libya is not a problem we can face except the
:18:40. > :18:44.problem of immigration and there is a moral duty of the US, France and
:18:45. > :18:51.the UK to solve that problem by taking Libyans as immigrants. I
:18:52. > :18:56.wonder whether, the Pope is in Lesbos this weekend and that has the
:18:57. > :19:02.focus has been in Syria and this is the next thing which you can see
:19:03. > :19:11.coming like a train wreck. But it won't be the fault of the EU. It
:19:12. > :19:16.can't be an intervention because we don't want one. So the only solution
:19:17. > :19:25.is to let the UN do it and the Americans also. You go to Belgium
:19:26. > :19:32.and so one, what are things like in Belgium -- Brussels and Paris now?
:19:33. > :19:38.Brussels is a mess. I was there recently. Three hours at the airport
:19:39. > :19:42.to take a flight. People are fearful to take the tube and it is very
:19:43. > :19:46.irregular as it doesn't work. There is a feeling that the sea -- city
:19:47. > :19:47.has been marked for years by this thing.
:19:48. > :19:50.New Yorkers go to the polls this week with three
:19:51. > :19:53.Hillary Clinton was once their Senator.
:19:54. > :19:57.And Bernie Sanders is a native New Yorker now living in Vermont.
:19:58. > :20:00.What will the New York primary results tell us, if anything,
:20:01. > :20:08.about the likely outcome of the presidential race?
:20:09. > :20:15.It is incredible you have three New Yorkers running for the presidency.
:20:16. > :20:21.Hillary Clinton -- Clinton has the lead in the polls and unless there
:20:22. > :20:26.is some huge upset she will win that. There are a lot of delegates
:20:27. > :20:31.that play there and it solidifies her position as the leading
:20:32. > :20:36.contender for the Democratic nomination and it's impossible for
:20:37. > :20:39.Bernie Sanders to catch up. For the Republicans, it is still up in the
:20:40. > :20:47.air. There aren't as many delegates up for drying -- grabs. Jump is
:20:48. > :20:52.polling a 50%, but most people think he will be 100 delegates short come
:20:53. > :20:56.the convention and that we won't have any idea how the Republican
:20:57. > :21:02.nomination will come into place until after California and even then
:21:03. > :21:09.it may not be clear. I think for the Republican nomination it will be...
:21:10. > :21:15.I think if you thought it was crazy so far, it will get crazier. There
:21:16. > :21:19.are hugely talented people in the Republican party. Yes and it's a
:21:20. > :21:24.shame they're not running. I think the Republican race is difficult and
:21:25. > :21:28.I think there will probably be... People will not release delegates
:21:29. > :21:32.and you end up having to go to the convention. There will be an attempt
:21:33. > :21:38.against Tramp two sticks things up for another candidate and that
:21:39. > :21:42.attempt will probably fail and Trouble gets elected anyway because
:21:43. > :21:47.he has, whilst it's not an overwhelming oh -- majority, I think
:21:48. > :21:54.the will of the people voting will be clear. On the Democratic side,
:21:55. > :22:00.it's tricky, isn't it? I thought the decision by a bummer about his worst
:22:01. > :22:07.ever mistake and he said Libya, it was a rare thing in politics, an
:22:08. > :22:08.honest answer. Like David Cameron saying that he would not run for
:22:09. > :22:21.third term, oh, God no excavation Hillary Clinton's number-1 argument
:22:22. > :22:30.is experienced and qualified and can hit the ground running -- running,
:22:31. > :22:34.but Libya was on her watch. But if you look at what she said this week
:22:35. > :22:41.at the Democratic debate when asked about it, she said it was the
:22:42. > :22:46.President's decision. I don't think people like it when people pass
:22:47. > :22:51.responsibility on. But I agree that Sanders cannot mathematically
:22:52. > :22:55.overtake her. But he can harm her continuously again and again. Whilst
:22:56. > :23:02.he may use -- lose in New York, is one the last seven and it doesn't
:23:03. > :23:07.reflect well on Hillary Clinton. Hillary Denton is well ahead. For
:23:08. > :23:12.spectators in this, there's an old saying that the best won't run and
:23:13. > :23:18.the worst won't quit. Is that where we are? In the Middle East we are
:23:19. > :23:25.following this contest very closely. Simply because becoming president of
:23:26. > :23:31.the US will affect us and most of the American intervention in the
:23:32. > :23:38.Middle East, Syria, Libya and Iraq, so to be honest, we are supposed to
:23:39. > :23:45.vote in this election to have our say because we will be the victims
:23:46. > :23:53.of this. Anyway, in the end I believe and I agree with you that
:23:54. > :24:04.Hillary Clinton is supported by American Africans and the Latina
:24:05. > :24:13.population. But Tramp is really sweeping everything up. You can say
:24:14. > :24:19.he's a clown and an entertainer or it's a circus, but the problem is we
:24:20. > :24:24.don't know the American people. They elected Ronald Reagan and Obama. We
:24:25. > :24:28.don't know yet. Maybe they will elect Hillary Clinton, we can't
:24:29. > :24:32.predict. Hillary Clinton is elected and that would be the important
:24:33. > :24:38.point as she would be a good president for Europe and so was
:24:39. > :24:45.President Obama. I'm not sure how many votes that will sway in
:24:46. > :24:51.America! Are you saying that next time and the next president will
:24:52. > :24:57.say, the American lady president, for example? The next lady president
:24:58. > :25:04.would say no Brexit. People think I'm obsessed with this! We will
:25:05. > :25:06.leave our competitive accessions. That's it for Dateline
:25:07. > :25:08.London for this week. We're back next week
:25:09. > :25:10.at the same time. You can of course comment on the
:25:11. > :25:42.programme on Twitter @gavinesler. Hello. It feels like we stepped back
:25:43. > :25:44.a season today. We've seen some lovely