:00:00. > 3:59:59end of the week, and some voices could be into the low 20s. -- some
:00:00. > :00:23.places. "It's the economy, stupid" was how
:00:24. > :00:28.an aide to Bill Clinton once The phrase comes to mind
:00:29. > :00:33.after a week of competing predictions in Britain's European
:00:34. > :00:37.referendum campaign about the cost of leaving, or remaining in,
:00:38. > :00:39.the European Union. Europe's idealism is being tested
:00:40. > :00:42.once again by the migration crisis, as borders are re-erected
:00:43. > :00:46.between European countries. We'll be debating who's coming
:00:47. > :00:49.from Africa and why. And the continuing suffering
:00:50. > :00:51.of Syrians, a key component in the mass movement of people,
:00:52. > :00:54.as their leaders talk peace in Europe even as they bombard
:00:55. > :00:57.each other back home. With me to discuss all that:
:00:58. > :01:00.Dr Vincent Magombe, an Africa analyst, Agnes Poirier,
:01:01. > :01:03.UK Editor for the French weekly The American writer and broadcaster
:01:04. > :01:08.Jeff McAllister is here, too, along with David Aaronovitch
:01:09. > :01:12.from The Times. On Friday, a new organisation
:01:13. > :01:14.was added to the alphabet soup of groups campaigning in Britain's
:01:15. > :01:17.referendum on whether to leave Economists for Brexit -
:01:18. > :01:22.there are eight of them - said the UK economy could grow
:01:23. > :01:28.by an extra 4% in a decade outside On the same day, JP Morgan Chase,
:01:29. > :01:36.the bank, suggested leaving would cost everyone
:01:37. > :01:38.in Britain ?45,000 each. Even the Chancellor, George Osborne,
:01:39. > :01:40.who wants to stay in, thinks leaving wouldn't be as bad
:01:41. > :01:43.as all that; his officials reckon the cost equates to a more modest
:01:44. > :02:05.?4,300 per household. I find the attempt to bring it down
:02:06. > :02:10.to a cost per household is problematic. All you are being told
:02:11. > :02:16.is the best guess of the majority of economists and organisations, people
:02:17. > :02:21.who think about this stuff, that people will lose out as a
:02:22. > :02:29.consequence of leaving the European Union. And eight economists don't
:02:30. > :02:36.agree! Well, there may be others who support them. And you have to say
:02:37. > :02:40.that because the BBC have to be balanced. But they are wrong. Agnes
:02:41. > :02:44.Poirier, you are reported for an audience outside of Britain. Yes,
:02:45. > :02:48.and we are fascinated by this obsession with figures. You can
:02:49. > :02:51.always make figures sing. You will always find a statistic from one
:02:52. > :02:58.survey or forecast that supports your argument. We have fact checkers
:02:59. > :03:02.now, and that is all we talk about. On the one hand, we understand it,
:03:03. > :03:06.because even the Remain camp is not going to go all emotional about
:03:07. > :03:14.Europe. I think they should, because they like passion. So the passion is
:03:15. > :03:22.all on the other side, you think? Yes, or aggression rather than
:03:23. > :03:25.passion. It is normal that both camps, being British and pragmatic,
:03:26. > :03:30.think it is just a question of reason, a topic that addresses
:03:31. > :03:35.British mines and brains. But it is also guts. When you are in the
:03:36. > :03:44.polling booth about to cast your vote and you are British, it is
:03:45. > :03:48.about your history. It is a ballot about culture and the European
:03:49. > :03:56.spirit. If you talk to a lot of British people, that is what they
:03:57. > :03:59.feel inside. So it is fascinating in France not to hear anything about
:04:00. > :04:05.what it is to belong to Europe, what it is to feel European. I defy any
:04:06. > :04:13.British tourist travelling through the Alps not to feel something about
:04:14. > :04:22.what an amazing continent to which I belong. In the end, it is a
:04:23. > :04:26.historical vote, not a question that we be posed again in the next 50
:04:27. > :04:31.years. Do you think we are not seeing the wood for the trees in
:04:32. > :04:36.Britain? Well, coming from outside, this is a story that everyone writes
:04:37. > :04:39.about over and over again. I wrote a cover story on your phobia ten years
:04:40. > :04:44.ago for Time magazine. It is a recurrent problem. There is just not
:04:45. > :04:50.the same attachment to Europe, and there never will be. There is at
:04:51. > :04:55.some level, which is ignored. You don't see the European flag flying
:04:56. > :04:58.with the British flag here. You commonly see it in other continental
:04:59. > :05:05.countries. The channel stopped Napoleon and the Armada and Hitler,
:05:06. > :05:10.and a good thing too. There will always be the emotional difference.
:05:11. > :05:14.When you get to the economists, I am reminded of Geoffrey Howe's incident
:05:15. > :05:19.when he was Chancellor for Margaret Thatcher, when 364 economists were
:05:20. > :05:24.against his Budget, which turned out to be a good thing. Can 364
:05:25. > :05:28.economists be wrong? Apparently. These predictions are difficult. If
:05:29. > :05:33.you look at what the polls say that if people are thinking about, no one
:05:34. > :05:37.is the economy. Even Brexit voters think it will be disruptive to the
:05:38. > :05:44.economy. Number two is immigration, three is sovereignty. The Brexit
:05:45. > :05:50.people take it will be Singapore, led by Boris Johnson, the buccaneer.
:05:51. > :05:54.We want Britain to be independent, the way we think it used to be. But
:05:55. > :06:04.that is not translating to the rest of the country. I must say this is
:06:05. > :06:11.interesting for entertainment purposes! As an African looking on
:06:12. > :06:15.everyday, I listen to different sites and I just can't believe how
:06:16. > :06:21.much each of them want to exaggerate what might happen or what it means
:06:22. > :06:27.to stay in and so on. Some suggest that Britain will be like Uganda,
:06:28. > :06:34.the economy might get broken. I don't think that can happen. If you
:06:35. > :06:41.have the skills and resources that Britain has, the advancement it has,
:06:42. > :06:50.Britain can exist. Why would Britain not exist if it got out? On the
:06:51. > :06:54.other hand, is an African, it really bothers me when people round up
:06:55. > :07:03.their core arguments about immigration. Imagine if you are in
:07:04. > :07:08.my country, Uganda, a guest staying there for some time, I have stayed
:07:09. > :07:16.here for 20 years, they say immigrants have to go. That scares
:07:17. > :07:21.me. What type of country will come once Britain comes out. Forget
:07:22. > :07:29.economics, but the attitudes towards people like us who are here? We pay
:07:30. > :07:34.taxes. We are part of the fabric. Colonialism, Commonwealth and so on,
:07:35. > :07:38.every day we are reminded that if Britain get out of the European
:07:39. > :07:46.Union... What about French expats, we are the same! I am sure you will
:07:47. > :07:51.all be welcome! Actually, when that happens, I shall be alone in this
:07:52. > :07:56.studio, and I will get the monumental fees that all of you get
:07:57. > :08:00.paid. But it will be a dollar programme. You will have a little
:08:01. > :08:03.longer to get your point across. Thank you very much.
:08:04. > :08:04.Britain's referendum may be a distracting irritation
:08:05. > :08:07.for other Europeans, but a greater strain on European
:08:08. > :08:10.Austria has re-introduced border controls on the Brenner
:08:11. > :08:13.It says Italians should be documenting new arrivals,
:08:14. > :08:16.This last week, the EU has been fulsome in its praise
:08:17. > :08:19.for Turkey, which is assisting in the repatriation of people who've
:08:20. > :08:21.entered Europe and who aren't legally entitled to sanctuary here.
:08:22. > :08:25.But both examples are treating the symptoms and not the cause.
:08:26. > :08:28.Many of the migrants are African, from a continent where the UN
:08:29. > :08:30.estimates three quarters of the population are now
:08:31. > :08:51.Well, before we know who is coming, it is important to focus on the
:08:52. > :08:55.African migrants as well. The major wave has been from the Middle East,
:08:56. > :09:01.and people forgot that the Africans were dying in the shadows as they
:09:02. > :09:06.came from some of the north African countries. But if you take Africa
:09:07. > :09:13.generally, I am one of those that came to Britain almost 20 years ago
:09:14. > :09:17.to seek political refuge. People tend to generalise about us who are
:09:18. > :09:25.coming from Africa, that we are all economic migrants. Even if we are,
:09:26. > :09:30.what is the cause of that? We need to understand that people run away
:09:31. > :09:35.because of bad governance, and that manifests in corruption, which then
:09:36. > :09:40.steals money from all the different services, health and so on, in poor
:09:41. > :09:45.economic performance, which makes sure that in my country, Uganda, you
:09:46. > :09:56.have 75% of the people who are young people. Among them, 65 to 70% are
:09:57. > :10:03.unemployed. It is to do with very bad governance. If you take some of
:10:04. > :10:10.us who are the so-called elite who take part in politics, journalists
:10:11. > :10:14.and so on, we ran away from our countries just because I can't speak
:10:15. > :10:18.a lot of the things I am speaking around the table in my country.
:10:19. > :10:23.Right now if I went to Uganda, I would be arrested at the airport?
:10:24. > :10:33.White? Because I am saying in the elections, you cheated. No democracy
:10:34. > :10:40.and so on. So just like in Syria or elsewhere, if we want to resolve
:10:41. > :10:42.those issues, I want to focus more on how you get the African
:10:43. > :10:49.governments to be better for their people. And how do you do that,
:10:50. > :10:52.given that we already put considerable sums of money, the
:10:53. > :10:57.developed world, into Africa, through international aid and other
:10:58. > :11:01.programmes. China is investing huge amounts into infrastructure because
:11:02. > :11:05.it sees the potential of Africa, and yet it is not changing fast enough
:11:06. > :11:14.to meet the genuine aspirations of many Africans. This is the $64
:11:15. > :11:21.million question. $64 million would not help! Or a trillion. You have a
:11:22. > :11:26.choice. You can try to build walls. That is an emotional appeal that
:11:27. > :11:29.politicians can make. We will all close our borders. Donald Trump is
:11:30. > :11:34.doing it, people in Europe are doing it, and that will somehow keep all
:11:35. > :11:37.this away from us. But there are now double the number of migrants, 60
:11:38. > :11:42.million in the world, than there were ten years ago. Some of it is
:11:43. > :11:49.desert evocation, climate change, causing huge numbers of lives to be
:11:50. > :11:55.unsustainable in Africa. So either you make it work, you build gardens
:11:56. > :12:02.where people are, or you build walls to keep them out. And whatever it
:12:03. > :12:09.takes, it has got to be cheaper. Not that there is any solution that is
:12:10. > :12:19.easy. You need to do smart things in terms of not just aid, to help those
:12:20. > :12:22.in migrant camps, the average time people stay in migrant camps is now
:12:23. > :12:27.70 years, so their children need all sorts of education and development.
:12:28. > :12:34.But in the long one, it is cheaper to do it in that way and better for
:12:35. > :12:38.our polity not to leave Europe, not to close your mind. And yet some of
:12:39. > :12:44.these things are working. The Turkey deal, for example, with the EU. I
:12:45. > :12:48.saw a report on Thursday that Lesbos last year had 5000 people arriving
:12:49. > :12:51.every day on that Greek island. There was nobody on Thursday. So
:12:52. > :12:57.somehow, the message is getting across. To a certain extent, but it
:12:58. > :13:02.is also possible that almost all the Syrians who could move has moved.
:13:03. > :13:05.After all, Syria is not a bottomless pit of people. A significant
:13:06. > :13:12.proportion of its population has already moved on. Nevertheless, it
:13:13. > :13:16.is probably the case that Europe could not have been worse at
:13:17. > :13:21.processing, and I don't just mean the EU by this. The responsibility
:13:22. > :13:25.for the Syrian migrant crisis, to put it down to the European Union
:13:26. > :13:29.alone, one of the greatest international crises of our time,
:13:30. > :13:33.always seemed odd to me. But Jeff is right. You have the choice between
:13:34. > :13:37.trying to deal with people where they are, trying to deal with them
:13:38. > :13:41.as they come or putting up walls. And the penalties for putting up
:13:42. > :13:46.walls are huge. It is incredibly disruptive, and it leads to a degree
:13:47. > :13:51.of authoritarianism. But censors are being built in Morocco. You have a
:13:52. > :13:59.little Saharan Africans going to North Africa, where they wait for
:14:00. > :14:02.weeks, months or years. They are in Morocco and Algeria, where the
:14:03. > :14:07.economic situation is not very good. And between Morocco and Spain, you
:14:08. > :14:12.have got huge fences. And we have not talked about something which
:14:13. > :14:18.perhaps, being the only woman on the panel, birth control. When you look
:14:19. > :14:23.at the birth rate in some parts of Africa, more than seven children per
:14:24. > :14:31.woman. This is perhaps the root of the problem. That is usually solved
:14:32. > :14:35.by a rising economic tide as in China where, regardless of the one
:14:36. > :14:39.child policy, average fertility went down as it does in almost all
:14:40. > :14:43.developing countries once people get a stake in the economic system.
:14:44. > :14:48.Obviously, it would be good to have birth control as well. The Pope went
:14:49. > :14:54.to Africa and actually supported birth control, and a lot of imams as
:14:55. > :15:04.well in Muslim countries in Africa. All these things, birth control,
:15:05. > :15:10.whatever a government can do, will depend on whether Africans have
:15:11. > :15:14.effective governments. But why do young Africans want to come to
:15:15. > :15:17.Europe, given that there are so many problems in Europe which these days,
:15:18. > :15:21.they now see on their mobile phones and televisions? You have put your
:15:22. > :15:25.finger on it. Whatever it is they are seeing on their mobile phones is
:15:26. > :15:32.better than what they have got. That is one thing, but let me tell you my
:15:33. > :15:37.story. I was a young African and have become an old man staying in
:15:38. > :15:42.Europe. I came here 30 years ago. I really wanted to come to Britain
:15:43. > :15:44.because I could not stay in my country, mainly for political
:15:45. > :15:51.reasons. Others come for economic reasons. But 90% of those people
:15:52. > :15:57.that I know who have stayed here for that long don't want to stay in
:15:58. > :16:02.Britain any longer. There may be others who don't know what is
:16:03. > :16:12.happening in Europe, think it is all gold. But others think, I would be a
:16:13. > :16:16.better person teaching in my university at home. I would be more
:16:17. > :16:20.happy at home, but I can't, because of the political situation at home,
:16:21. > :16:23.because of bad governance and corruption. And how much
:16:24. > :16:28.responsibility do you think rests with countries like Britain, Europe
:16:29. > :16:36.and the United States? I don't want to bore you with history, but Europe
:16:37. > :16:40.and Britain, you are to blame for how Africa was dislocated in
:16:41. > :16:47.post-colonial times. But those times have passed. India means couldn't
:16:48. > :17:03.have come to Uganda without British intelligence -- Iggy and mean. --
:17:04. > :17:09.Idi Amin. The British and Americans helped. The governance of Britain,
:17:10. > :17:14.Europe and the United States very much have played a role in
:17:15. > :17:18.maintaining those bad governments. Do Americans feel that, or do events
:17:19. > :17:22.of the last 20 years mean the last thing they want to do is rather
:17:23. > :17:26.sleeves up and become involved in a continent like Africa? I think the
:17:27. > :17:30.foreign policy class, educated people might understand these
:17:31. > :17:35.things, but it has no political resonance. And while you may be able
:17:36. > :17:41.to, as Bill Clinton and even George W Bush did, build consensus that
:17:42. > :17:45.more needs to be done for Africa, this is not what you hear Donald
:17:46. > :17:52.Trump talking about. This is not where the weather is being made. And
:17:53. > :17:56.even Hillary Clinton? If she becomes president, she would do good things,
:17:57. > :17:59.but I don't think there will be a puddle wave of interest in putting
:18:00. > :18:04.the kind of investment into the problem that it needs. Agnes, how do
:18:05. > :18:12.you change that view in Europe? To go back to what gestures was saying,
:18:13. > :18:20.the UN is also the place where a lot of money is channelled back to
:18:21. > :18:28.Africa. We have the millennial goals. They do a lot of good work.
:18:29. > :18:31.But that money gets stolen by the governments. We can talk about
:18:32. > :18:39.colonialism for a long time, but this is now. But that is why
:18:40. > :18:45.personally, I blame more my people than anybody else. One of the issues
:18:46. > :18:47.David has alluded to in the bass movement of people is the war in
:18:48. > :18:49.Syria. The war in Syria continues to be one
:18:50. > :18:51.of the things encouraging people to seek a new,
:18:52. > :18:54.less dangerous life in Europe. The fighting goes on,
:18:55. > :18:56.even as peace talks have been Despite an earlier cessation
:18:57. > :19:00.of hostilities having been imposed by Russia and the United States
:19:01. > :19:03.on the government and rebel sides, the city of Aleppo, for one,
:19:04. > :19:06.has been remorselessly bombarded - 200 people have died
:19:07. > :19:08.in the last week alone. The US and Russia are trying again,
:19:09. > :19:11.this time announcing a "regime of silence",
:19:12. > :19:13.but there's been no agreement A regime of silence - is this
:19:14. > :19:31.the calm before the storm? I think the cam and the storm
:19:32. > :19:36.coexist. This is the way Russia and Assad are using the peace talks as
:19:37. > :19:44.part of their strategy of aggression. So they are playing for
:19:45. > :19:50.time? Right. If they get Aleppo, as it looks like they are trying to do,
:19:51. > :19:55.this cuts off the opponents of the Assad regime from supplies. It
:19:56. > :19:59.doesn't do much for Isis. It creates new refugees, which is an added
:20:00. > :20:06.bonus is far as Putin is concerned in destabilising Europe. The Russian
:20:07. > :20:12.propaganda machine is taking videos filmed by human rights activists
:20:13. > :20:15.showing Russian planes hitting a hospital in Aleppo, editing out the
:20:16. > :20:20.noise of the planes and saying it to the opponents of Assad who are doing
:20:21. > :20:23.it. It is all part of the same system. The Russians take the planes
:20:24. > :20:27.out, but they bring in helicopters. This is not going to be over any
:20:28. > :20:33.time soon, and the peace talks are not in a position to make anything
:20:34. > :20:38.happen, I would say. David, a paper in Syria warned that the war of all
:20:39. > :20:43.wars is about to be unleashed on the rebels. Does it look like the Assad
:20:44. > :20:52.government is moving towards what it thinks is the endgame? No. What the
:20:53. > :20:56.Russians have been doing with Assad, as Jeff said, is using the peace
:20:57. > :21:01.talks and bombarding those areas they think they can take back or
:21:02. > :21:06.neutralise so as to create as big a zone for Assad as possible. But if
:21:07. > :21:11.he had Aleppo, he would then have all the main pieces. Nobody, not
:21:12. > :21:16.even the Russians, except Assad, believes he can go back to being the
:21:17. > :21:22.unitary ruler of a peaceful Syria. It is not owing to happen. It will
:21:23. > :21:28.be at best a significantly divided Syria. This is about taking enough
:21:29. > :21:35.of it to stabilise his part of it and to stabilise control. That is
:21:36. > :21:39.all they can hope to do. It is a war opposition before coming to some
:21:40. > :21:48.kind of long term settlement which is advantageous to him and no one
:21:49. > :21:56.else. It looks as if we are just waiting for Assad to gain back some
:21:57. > :22:02.territory, hoping that then, he will be inclined to go back to the peace
:22:03. > :22:07.talks. That he will be magnanimous in victory. Exactly. It looks a bit
:22:08. > :22:12.flawed. As long as Putin backs him financially and militarily, he will
:22:13. > :22:23.never surrender. Fighting IS is not his priority. And Russia's priority
:22:24. > :22:30.is not fighting IS. Turkey are more in custody in crushing the Kurds. --
:22:31. > :22:34.they are more interested in crushing the Kurds. And the US are not going
:22:35. > :22:39.to do anything for another 18 months because of the ending of Obama's
:22:40. > :22:43.presidency. And the Russians know that. Obama has been pushed to do
:22:44. > :22:48.something in Syria for the last three years and he has not figured
:22:49. > :22:55.out what to do. The Labour Party in Britain said, hang on, we are not
:22:56. > :22:59.going to join, and that was a shame. France were committed to go, and
:23:00. > :23:07.then we were all deflated. Thank you, Ed Miliband. I was in Russia
:23:08. > :23:11.for a long time. I was there when they were humiliated in Afghanistan
:23:12. > :23:18.and had to rush through the mountains in retreat. I am sure they
:23:19. > :23:22.understand that in Syria, it could be the same thing. This thing off
:23:23. > :23:27.thinking that if he wins Aleppo or even wins back the whole entry, that
:23:28. > :23:32.is the end of it, before this whole thing, he had the whole country.
:23:33. > :23:37.They started fighting because of a lack of democracy and so on. Even if
:23:38. > :23:41.he gets the country back, I am a big fanatic of this thing called
:23:42. > :23:47.democracy. If you do not bring democratic governance which then
:23:48. > :23:56.tries to work for all the people of Syria, you are wasting your time.
:23:57. > :24:00.Even if they make peace, but do not find a framework in which they can
:24:01. > :24:04.have a democratic Syria with a government that answers to all the
:24:05. > :24:08.people, you are wasting your time. David, does that mean there was a
:24:09. > :24:11.role for the international community as honest brokers in this, or have
:24:12. > :24:17.they seized to be honest brokers because of their own interest is?
:24:18. > :24:21.The problem is, it is almost impossible to see that the Assad-
:24:22. > :24:26.Putin road leads anywhere but to a different kind of disaster. And
:24:27. > :24:29.because there was and the willpower on the part of the international
:24:30. > :24:36.community, which would have to mean us saying to the Americas, you have
:24:37. > :24:40.to lead this, because it always does, if the refugee crisis had been
:24:41. > :24:46.on America's border, actually coming down from Canada, we might have seen
:24:47. > :24:50.a much more decisive move from the United States which people could
:24:51. > :24:58.have fallen in behind. Has President Obama been flat-footed on this? I am
:24:59. > :25:05.sympathetic in a way to his flat-footed nurse. After all, we not
:25:06. > :25:10.recently -- recently invaded Iraq and that did not turn out great. He
:25:11. > :25:15.was right to try and figure out, what is the endgame? In Libya as
:25:16. > :25:19.well, what is the endgame? It is a smart question to ask. Just because
:25:20. > :25:22.the problem now is bad does not mean the solution you proffer is any
:25:23. > :25:27.better, and it could make things worse. On the other hand, it is so
:25:28. > :25:32.bad and it is creating so many refugees and so much destabilisation
:25:33. > :25:37.that you have to think, what are all these fancy troops and capability
:25:38. > :25:41.good for if not stopped this? The biggest tragedy about Syria is that
:25:42. > :25:45.those people who originally rose up to try and find a more democratic
:25:46. > :25:49.path for their country are now completely forgotten. We are talking
:25:50. > :25:58.about roubles, and we don't even know who they are. -- rebels. Where
:25:59. > :26:04.are those Syrians who hoped for a better country? Thank you all very
:26:05. > :26:06.much, a sombre note on which to end the programme.
:26:07. > :26:11.Gavin will be back in the chair at the same time next week.