:00:25. > :00:32.London elects the first Muslim mayor in a western European capital.
:00:33. > :00:35.What do this week's elections across the United Kingdom tell us
:00:36. > :00:38.And what does Donald Trump tell us about the state
:00:39. > :00:42.This week's top team are Maria Margaronis of The Nation,
:00:43. > :00:44.Iain Martin, editor of CapX and former editor of The Scotsman,
:00:45. > :00:46.Henry Chu, Europe Bureau Chief of Variety Magazine,
:00:47. > :00:48.Rashmee Roshan Lall, a columnist for The National
:00:49. > :00:57.The Scottish National Party wins power again in Scotland.
:00:58. > :01:01.Labour is crushed in Scotland, but does not do badly elsewhere
:01:02. > :01:04.winning the big prize of London mayor - the first Muslim to be
:01:05. > :01:06.elected to lead a major European capital city.
:01:07. > :01:08.And the Conservatives manage to find some cheer
:01:09. > :01:17.Can anyone explain the state of our peculiar politics?
:01:18. > :01:31.Ian? Thank you for that introduction. If you look in terms
:01:32. > :01:37.of England and Jeremy Corbyn, he has done a rather spectacularly good job
:01:38. > :01:42.of expectation management in that he has done really pretty badly, but
:01:43. > :01:47.because he hasn't lost many seats he's presenting it as a kind of
:01:48. > :01:53.victory. Compared to previous labour leaders and we are at a point in the
:01:54. > :01:56.electoral cycle, with the government unpopular and trouble in certain
:01:57. > :02:01.respects, that's a point at which you would expect to see a Leader of
:02:02. > :02:08.the Opposition, if he is genuinely popular, you would expect to see him
:02:09. > :02:12.make enormous gains and to lead in terms of the popular vote by a long
:02:13. > :02:16.way. He basically came only one point ahead of the popular vote
:02:17. > :02:26.ahead of David Cameron's conservatives. 30% - 31%. Yes, and
:02:27. > :02:31.winning the London mayoral team allows them to cover it up in
:02:32. > :02:35.effect. Alec -- a calamitous result for them in Scotland where they were
:02:36. > :02:42.pushed into third place by the Conservatives.
:02:43. > :02:45.But Sadiq Khan's victory cheers up Labour supporters and suggests
:02:46. > :02:51.London was a different place, as it was in the general election?
:02:52. > :02:55.Absolutely. Ian has got it when you said you have to break it all down.
:02:56. > :03:01.The story, as far as I can see, is that it's been at least 20 years of
:03:02. > :03:09.devolution in Wales and you're seeing a different narrative and
:03:10. > :03:14.three different political terrorist -- terrorist -- Territories almost.
:03:15. > :03:21.London is a citystate and everyone keeps saying it's a Labour city but
:03:22. > :03:27.actually said Dick Khan was a personality, not a big personality,
:03:28. > :03:34.but the man. The bus conductor 's son from a council estate and salon.
:03:35. > :03:42.Yes. "If I can win it, anyone can". It's a big moment. He happens to be
:03:43. > :03:47.a Muslim mayor. I feel tremendously proud today and I'm very moved by
:03:48. > :03:53.it, but there is a risk of getting very leader oriented about it.
:03:54. > :03:59.Doesn't intend @ struggle in the Conservative Party but I don't think
:04:00. > :04:03.it's all about Jeremy Corbyn. A lot of his opponents want us to think
:04:04. > :04:06.that Labour's failure to do better is about him but the Labour Party
:04:07. > :04:14.has been in disarray for a long time and it's not just Corbyn. One of the
:04:15. > :04:17.reasons why Siddique Khan was successful, may I suggest, is that
:04:18. > :04:21.he was seen to be his own man and there was a good -- degree of
:04:22. > :04:27.distance. And perhaps the party apparatus is less important than
:04:28. > :04:36.being able to say I'm slightly independent from it? Absolutely.
:04:37. > :04:39.London is its own creature. You saw Siddique Khan almost is associating
:04:40. > :04:47.himself with the National party in many ways. -- Sadiq Khan. It was not
:04:48. > :04:52.about Jeremy Corbyn's Leader of the Opposition that he drew on. I agree
:04:53. > :04:58.with Ian that the map narrative the media has shaped by not doing as
:04:59. > :05:04.badly as everyone expected he would do and that somehow it is a victory.
:05:05. > :05:11.No way, except in London. Six months ago, think back to London, and I
:05:12. > :05:19.think politicians should be tested by what they set themselves. The
:05:20. > :05:24.claim was made that it was an extraordinary mass movement in the
:05:25. > :05:28.Labour Party that would sweep Britain and transform the political
:05:29. > :05:33.landscape and it was energising millions of nonvoters. The Blairites
:05:34. > :05:38.didn't know what they were talking about and it was a new style of
:05:39. > :05:42.politics. When you make claims like that, there is a point at which you
:05:43. > :05:47.had to take it to the voters and that is what happened on Thursday.
:05:48. > :05:55.The voters said they are not interested. I wonder how much you
:05:56. > :06:01.think Sadiq Khan has helped -- was helped by a pretty woeful campaign
:06:02. > :06:07.by Zac Goldsmith? Personally, I think it has been overblown. I don't
:06:08. > :06:13.think the campaign was as bad as is being said. I really struggle to see
:06:14. > :06:18.how he was ever really going to win because London is a Labour city and
:06:19. > :06:24.Boris is an exceptional candidate. The Tories took London twice, mainly
:06:25. > :06:31.because of the charisma of Boris and his personality. What do you make of
:06:32. > :06:36.the Conservative campaign? I think you had to see it in the rise of
:06:37. > :06:42.Islamic phobia and anti-Semitism across Europe and trans-Atlantic Lee
:06:43. > :06:50.as well. It didn't betray London in a good light. I agree with Maria, I
:06:51. > :06:56.wasn't happy to be a Londoner then but now you see there is a unity and
:06:57. > :07:02.diversity message that has won through, one is very proud of it.
:07:03. > :07:07.You were the editor of That Scotsmen for a long time and when the Tories
:07:08. > :07:12.were toxic. You couldn't admit publicly you were a conservative
:07:13. > :07:22.approximately. There were toxic for approximately 25 years. But Ruth
:07:23. > :07:27.Davidson, personally, established herself as being quite independent
:07:28. > :07:33.of the Conservative Party in London. She is a fascinating figure. She has
:07:34. > :07:37.so much energy and is openly gay and the Tory leader. She is popular in
:07:38. > :07:44.Scotland and she's done something really rather maraca ball and even
:07:45. > :07:50.as someone who is opposed to devolution, I say it is a very good
:07:51. > :07:53.day, actually, because there are indications that politics in
:07:54. > :07:59.Scotland is starting to normalise. The difficulty was you happy left
:08:00. > :08:06.SNP up against the left-wing Labour Party and there was never really a
:08:07. > :08:11.proper left/ right debate about taxation or the economy. Now there
:08:12. > :08:16.is an opposition party led by someone who has bags of potential,
:08:17. > :08:21.Ruth Davidson, which is going to be a proper opposition against the SNP.
:08:22. > :08:26.For all people say that it is historic that they got a third term,
:08:27. > :08:32.they fell short of an overall majority. Despite what they say,
:08:33. > :08:36.they anticipated that. Politics very often isn't about small margins. Of
:08:37. > :08:43.course it is a good result for the SNP and the vote was huge, but they
:08:44. > :08:47.just slipped and that suggests the momentum that has carried them
:08:48. > :08:52.through, the incredible momentum of the last two years, has gone into
:08:53. > :08:56.reverse. They got more than a million votes and they can perfectly
:08:57. > :09:03.run the country as a big minority government. It was her chance to
:09:04. > :09:07.shine. She is incredibly popular and it's had chance to consolidate her
:09:08. > :09:13.power base and be a leader in her own right of a majority government.
:09:14. > :09:18.We see her rowing back on the idea of another independence referendum,
:09:19. > :09:23.although the EU referendum if it goes towards Brexit could revive
:09:24. > :09:27.that. Unfortunately the way the system is set up, she doesn't have a
:09:28. > :09:31.majority and she will have two content with that in the same way
:09:32. > :09:37.David Cameron in his first term didn't have a majority. What do you
:09:38. > :09:43.make of that? Scotland is another country, but I have a question. How
:09:44. > :09:46.much is the Scottish result about independence or about other things?
:09:47. > :09:51.Is Labour's collapse there about the way they've handed independence or
:09:52. > :09:57.other things? As Scots, we would say there's more than half an hour
:09:58. > :10:02.programme in the collapse of the Scottish Labour Party. It's a 25 or
:10:03. > :10:08.30 year event. The collapse of traditional politics. The Labour
:10:09. > :10:13.Party machine taking Scotland for granted, thinking it could send its
:10:14. > :10:17.best talent to London running the UK and leave enough people behind to
:10:18. > :10:22.run Scotland. They were always going to be vulnerable to this
:10:23. > :10:28.extraordinary Nationalist charge. It's also interesting that the
:10:29. > :10:32.demographics of parts of Wales are similar to parts of Scotland and
:10:33. > :10:38.Ukip did well in Wales but nowhere in Scotland. Party-macro doing well
:10:39. > :10:47.in Wales is a puzzle to me. They got two seats. What's interesting there
:10:48. > :10:51.is that we've got the June 23 referendum on whether Britain should
:10:52. > :10:57.leave the EU or not. If there is a wafer thin majority to stay in,
:10:58. > :11:03.we'll Ukip become dig up off the back of that because they will keep
:11:04. > :11:07.picking away at the edges. When will they collapse? We began by talking a
:11:08. > :11:13.bit about Labour. There are those who think that there are those
:11:14. > :11:19.within the Labour Party who dislike Jeremy Corbyn's leadership and it's
:11:20. > :11:25.a terrible result. But Jeremy Corbyn can say they didn't do too badly and
:11:26. > :11:33.he has. I don't think this is a trigger point they can use to depose
:11:34. > :11:36.him. They were able to get the mayoralty of London, which is a big
:11:37. > :11:40.prize when you think of the electoral mandate involved. And they
:11:41. > :11:45.didn't lose some councils they seemed to be in danger of losing. I
:11:46. > :11:51.don't think we've reached the critical mass for the anti-Corbyn
:11:52. > :11:58.can to get rid of him, but he has been put on notice. He's been leader
:11:59. > :12:01.for eight months so it's time to coalesce the movement that is
:12:02. > :12:07.supposedly behind him and show strength, but it's not happened. He
:12:08. > :12:12.has been eight months in the job and the way Corbyn and Bernie Sanders
:12:13. > :12:21.across the Atlantic... The rise of these two non-auto idea focus
:12:22. > :12:29.grouped, kind of 90s people, lefties, tells a different story. In
:12:30. > :12:38.America, I don't want to save feel-good charm, but... There is
:12:39. > :12:43.something about flexible work on robots come to take our jobs and
:12:44. > :12:46.they are talking about a different way to govern society. That's right,
:12:47. > :12:50.but one of the most interesting stories of one of the last few years
:12:51. > :12:55.and it's possibly acutely leap British because we seem to be
:12:56. > :13:00.apathetic about politics, you can have a surge of populist anger with
:13:01. > :13:05.Ukip acceptor, but when you come down to it as it did in the 2015
:13:06. > :13:09.election and it becomes a binary choice as to who will run the
:13:10. > :13:14.country, and the kind of seats people need to win, it emerges that
:13:15. > :13:18.people are pretty centrist and David Cameron got an overall majority.
:13:19. > :13:20.Peculiarities. Donald Trump won, as he put it,
:13:21. > :13:22."bigly" and perhaps, to quote George Dubya Bush,
:13:23. > :13:24.he was "misunderestimated". But, barely tolerated or even
:13:25. > :13:26.loathed by the Republican hierarchy, can he really become President
:13:27. > :13:40.of the United States? We will go to our show business
:13:41. > :13:44.correspondent on this. I am once bitten twice shy because I thought
:13:45. > :13:48.there would be no way he could get the nomination so I don't want to
:13:49. > :13:53.say never say never. He starts with incredible negatives that have not
:13:54. > :13:58.had a president since polling began in the US in terms of those who
:13:59. > :14:03.regard him unfavourably. It should be a golden moment for the
:14:04. > :14:08.Republicans because Hillary Clinton has credible negative rating. But
:14:09. > :14:12.the Republican presumptive candidate is even worse. Is it impossible for
:14:13. > :14:17.him to come back? No, because the last time that happened was with
:14:18. > :14:23.Ronald Reagan so maybe there is a showbiz flavour to that. You're
:14:24. > :14:26.talking about to death -- different people. Ronald Reagan was the
:14:27. > :14:33.governor of a big state, as you know. Any time you have got a major
:14:34. > :14:41.party giving the nomination to somebody you can't any longer say
:14:42. > :14:52.has a 0% chance of winning, exogenous things can happen. Like in
:14:53. > :14:59.1968. But he has only 14.6% of the American electorate. His
:15:00. > :15:04.negatives... 70% down for women, 80% for blacks and 90% for Hispanics. He
:15:05. > :15:11.has to get all these people to like him, build a coalition that works.
:15:12. > :15:20.Can he do that? I would have to say, I remember a book called Ronald
:15:21. > :15:24.Reagan's Reign Of Error and that he was an idiot cowboy. And George W
:15:25. > :15:30.Bush can't speak the English language and he was
:15:31. > :15:36.mis-underestimated and he was elected twice. People have got to
:15:37. > :15:43.hope that Donald Trump is in a different category. The extent of
:15:44. > :15:48.his comments about women, Muslims, the insults and the way he behaves,
:15:49. > :15:54.the narcissism and egotism and I could go on... What troubles me most
:15:55. > :16:01.of all is that Hillary Clinton is a really weak candidate in an age
:16:02. > :16:05.where people aren't rebelling or the world is changing and people are
:16:06. > :16:09.rebelling against elites, she is the worst candidate you can imagine.
:16:10. > :16:16.She's been around for ever and been on people's TV screens nightly, or
:16:17. > :16:21.pretty much weekly fall 25 years. There has to be a danger, if he
:16:22. > :16:26.finds a way, of talking to a particular kind of voter in the
:16:27. > :16:31.right states of at least him running her closer. In a way she's the
:16:32. > :16:36.perfect candidate as a foil for him because if he's the ultimate
:16:37. > :16:42.outsider she is the ultimate insider? That's partly right. A lot
:16:43. > :16:46.of polls show Bernie Sanders will do better than her because, as we said
:16:47. > :16:51.before, there is a push from right and left against the centrist elite.
:16:52. > :16:55.It may be that when it comes to the polling booth, peoples plumped for
:16:56. > :16:59.the Saints parent hands but I don't think that will go on for ever. We
:17:00. > :17:08.talked about America's working-class -- safe pair of hands. With a slight
:17:09. > :17:13.shift it might apply to Bernie Sanders. That is where we're looking
:17:14. > :17:18.at big movements which we haven't understood yet. When you say white
:17:19. > :17:22.voters, the share of the white electorate or the white share of the
:17:23. > :17:29.electorate has fallen two point four. Demographically. So you can no
:17:30. > :17:37.longer have a lot of white people voting for you. People identified
:17:38. > :17:40.that as their own problem in 2012 and they said, how do we need to
:17:41. > :17:44.remake ourselves in order to succeed in the new landscape yet you see
:17:45. > :17:50.Donald Trump getting the nomination right. So he can class into a set of
:17:51. > :17:56.voters who are highly motivated and who he can probably count on. There
:17:57. > :18:01.are big forces on the move here, aren't there? It's as much about
:18:02. > :18:08.resentment of the downsides of globalisation as anything else and
:18:09. > :18:12.about PPV feeling that there are benefits of globalisation -- about
:18:13. > :18:20.people feeling. It is highly unlikely that the TT IP will happen
:18:21. > :18:26.and people are moving to a more protectionist direction and there is
:18:27. > :18:29.concern at the British referendum has illustrated that although I am
:18:30. > :18:33.not a conspiracy theorist about it, the more you start to learn about
:18:34. > :18:42.how the deals are done and how regulation works, regulation of huge
:18:43. > :18:46.trading blocs under the badge of free trade, which it isn't really,
:18:47. > :18:51.there is combination there from the right and left about supranational
:18:52. > :18:57.non-democratic institutions and the extent of power they wield. It makes
:18:58. > :19:04.seem politics again for insiders and the rest are excluding -- excluded.
:19:05. > :19:09.Everyone says these are voters who once a politician who tells it how
:19:10. > :19:17.it is, but actually it is telling it how it isn't. What would Donald
:19:18. > :19:25.Trump do? Bring back low waged jobs? He will tell the Chinese and the
:19:26. > :19:32.Pakistanis... And he will ban people from coming to his country? Indeed.
:19:33. > :19:42.It is not the real world. It taps into deep-seated fantasies. Because
:19:43. > :19:46.the American economy is effectively energy self-sufficient, one of the
:19:47. > :19:51.lessons of the last hundred years or so of economics is that if America
:19:52. > :19:57.wants to go protectionist for a while, it's large enough. It is the
:19:58. > :20:04.rest of us who will then feel the pain if it shuts itself. That's an
:20:05. > :20:09.interesting point. In terms of party politics, we are seeing people
:20:10. > :20:14.running against the party or not completely associating themselves
:20:15. > :20:20.with the party in both Scotland and, to an extent, in London. I've had
:20:21. > :20:24.two views. One is decent Republicans with their head in their hands and
:20:25. > :20:28.another is that the Republican party have been doing it for years and
:20:29. > :20:36.that Trump is the logical extension. Where are you on that? You can be
:20:37. > :20:40.both. Holding your head in your hands and thinking that what you
:20:41. > :20:45.have sown you are now reaping. It is the outcome of a Republican party
:20:46. > :20:51.that he's been purely obstructionist and has made government seem like
:20:52. > :20:56.the villain and a force that does not actually work in their
:20:57. > :21:00.interests. You get an outsider like Trump who promises all these things
:21:01. > :21:06.that the government has not been able to give before. It is also
:21:07. > :21:12.openly saying the dog whistle politics that had been papered over
:21:13. > :21:17.by pictures of George Bush with Latinos supporters. Trump doesn't
:21:18. > :21:23.even go for these images any more, but straight for the jugular is what
:21:24. > :21:28.seems like a nationalist agenda. The second analysis is definitely
:21:29. > :21:31.happening. The Republican establishment, although they may be
:21:32. > :21:36.reaping what they are sewing, are very concerned that they may -- now
:21:37. > :21:40.have a candidate who would probably destroy the party so there are moves
:21:41. > :21:51.to try and make it nice between the two camps. But Trump is congenitally
:21:52. > :21:59.unable to take criticism. Thames do have a rapprochement have failed the
:22:00. > :22:04.Republican establishment. -- attempts. Maria, you have come back
:22:05. > :22:08.from refugee camps in Greece, literally in the last few hours.
:22:09. > :22:16.Tell us a bit about what you have found because it has dropped off a
:22:17. > :22:21.bit of the agenda. It is not on the way to being solved. It is very
:22:22. > :22:25.complicated. I was in one of the Eastern Aegean islands where people
:22:26. > :22:33.are still landing, many fewer than before the EU/ Turkey deal, but they
:22:34. > :22:38.still are. There are more than 2000 refugees and migrants who've arrived
:22:39. > :22:41.since the deal living in the most appalling conditions in a centre
:22:42. > :22:47.that was boast to be a registration centre and then it became a hot spot
:22:48. > :22:54.and then a locked detention centre in which there was a revolt. Now,
:22:55. > :22:58.miserable conditions with terrible food, not enough hot water, women
:22:59. > :23:03.and children living with men, some of whom are young and become
:23:04. > :23:06.violent. Local villagers have blockaded the roads because there
:23:07. > :23:14.are worried about their chickens being stolen. Is that a change of
:23:15. > :23:18.tone? Yes, the Greek people have shown incredible solidarity with
:23:19. > :23:22.people coming to their shores, but now it is no longer a child let
:23:23. > :23:29.company but a place where it seems people will stay for a long time --
:23:30. > :23:33.no longer a transit country. I saw things on the border with the
:23:34. > :23:42.Macedonian republic where there is a huge informal tam -- camp, which is
:23:43. > :23:49.becoming almost a town and I saw the flag of the Greek tater ship flying
:23:50. > :23:53.over somebody's house. I asked what it was and he said he put it up last
:23:54. > :24:11.week and had it specially printed. Don't think I'm right wing gun. That
:24:12. > :24:15.is far right? -- right-winger. Yes. I visited another camp run by a
:24:16. > :24:21.sympathetic and organised army men -- army major which was OK. I've
:24:22. > :24:28.visited organise places like a hotel. It was empty for a long time
:24:29. > :24:33.and it is being run with refugees and seem humane, but the system is
:24:34. > :24:39.not working. Asylum experts promised by the EU have not arrived or very
:24:40. > :24:43.few. The system is overwhelmed and all the 50,000 people want to move
:24:44. > :24:53.on to Europe and they don't want to stay in Greece. It will get worse.
:24:54. > :25:00.The deal is a disaster. But it stop people coming. What there isn't is
:25:01. > :25:07.money. There may be solidarity but not money. There isn't the
:25:08. > :25:14.organisation or capacity to deal with this. In Britain, this will be
:25:15. > :25:18.the backdrop to the... You've gone early to report this and the amount
:25:19. > :25:24.of reporting will increase in the next few months. This will be the
:25:25. > :25:30.backdrop to the EU referendum. The EU has a serious problem in that it
:25:31. > :25:37.cannot, in voters minds, protect its external border and its poor at
:25:38. > :25:46.internal security. In terms of how it looks, come June 23 in the UK
:25:47. > :25:55.when people vote, it could look very difficult to remain. But it's very
:25:56. > :26:01.different. It's really not... But it may not be seen that way. A head and
:26:02. > :26:05.heart issue. Not just that. It's the case where central and northern
:26:06. > :26:09.European countries refuse to do their part with the refugee crisis.
:26:10. > :26:11.The relocation programme is not working.
:26:12. > :26:13.That's it for Dateline London for this week.
:26:14. > :26:15.You can comment on the programme on Twitter @gavinesler.
:26:16. > :26:18.We are back next week at the same time.