:00:31. > :00:40.Welcome to Dateline London. International Monetary Fund suggests
:00:41. > :00:44.that it could be bad for the UK to exit the European Union. Corruption
:00:45. > :00:52.is also a big prop on for Africa and the developing countries, but how
:00:53. > :00:59.big a problem for us? IM joined by -- I am joined by several guests
:01:00. > :01:04.this morning. The governor of the Bank of England,
:01:05. > :01:07.Mark Carney, pointed out that the biggest political decision in the
:01:08. > :01:14.ways of most British people, voting to leave the European Union, put
:01:15. > :01:18.provoke a technical recession. The IMF has also suggested that things
:01:19. > :01:24.could get rough. With so many heavyweights against Britain leaving
:01:25. > :01:32.the EU, why are the opinion polls so close? Mark Carney is a serious
:01:33. > :01:35.person making a serious point, and he has been ready chilled by some
:01:36. > :01:43.people. The operative word was "could". A technical recession,
:01:44. > :01:48.whatever that is. It sounds like they are talking to six-year-olds.
:01:49. > :02:00.This is precisely the point. The more big battalions that are brought
:02:01. > :02:05.into argue in apocalyptic terms, the more people suspect this is a stitch
:02:06. > :02:10.up. People are not believing, even if these arguments are credible and
:02:11. > :02:13.sound, there are very few empirical facts because you're prophesying
:02:14. > :02:19.about the future, which is always a dodgy thing to do, especially when
:02:20. > :02:25.you are an economist. You get it right so often! People are thinking,
:02:26. > :02:31.why are these people trying to bully me, frighten me, threaten me? The
:02:32. > :02:33.British population, in my experience, is the most resilient
:02:34. > :02:38.population in the world when it comes to being bullied and
:02:39. > :02:41.threatened. They do not like it. But Mark Carney, if he did not see
:02:42. > :02:46.something which he believes in about this, and it goes terribly wrong, it
:02:47. > :02:52.is very difficult to say that the biggest decision in our lifetime, to
:02:53. > :02:58.get out of the EU, would result in everything being hunky-dory. I did
:02:59. > :03:05.not say that he should not have said it. Your question was about public
:03:06. > :03:10.opinion. It is all right for him to have said it, it is a question of
:03:11. > :03:13.how you take it. The uncertainty, the risk is what all of these big
:03:14. > :03:18.battalions who are coming into this fight are talking about. There are
:03:19. > :03:24.uncertainties and risks about staying in. This is a train heading
:03:25. > :03:27.very fast in a direction that most people, or many people in this
:03:28. > :03:36.country, do not like. The question is, how much risk is there? How much
:03:37. > :03:43.risk is there in staying in? There is risk in either option, because
:03:44. > :03:51.the EU is changing as well. Look at foreign investment, growth, they are
:03:52. > :04:02.stalling. Why? Not because the British people does not believe that
:04:03. > :04:05.it will be unknown quantities and the economy does not like unknown
:04:06. > :04:13.and it is better to continue with the economic situation that we have.
:04:14. > :04:22.I think, basically, they have lost the economic argument, the
:04:23. > :04:29.Brexiters. Their one argument they are strong on his immigration. The
:04:30. > :04:43.economy, it is quite clear, it will be MS and renegotiation of lots of
:04:44. > :04:48.things. -- it will be a mess. Confidence and trust is not here.
:04:49. > :04:54.The Prime Minister clearly is thinking along the same lines as
:04:55. > :04:59.Mark Carney, because he again has been talking about problems with
:05:00. > :05:05.exports to the European Union if we were to pull out, that there would
:05:06. > :05:09.be tariff barriers. He needs to learn a few lessons about British
:05:10. > :05:15.society. I am an outsider, but I have some friends who are British
:05:16. > :05:21.and we were discussing it. Someone said, I would really like to stay
:05:22. > :05:32.in, but these things are attempts to bilious. You believe with the
:05:33. > :05:37.psychology? What concerns me is their attempts to shut down this guy
:05:38. > :05:41.who is trying to say anything. I am such a fanatical believer in freedom
:05:42. > :05:48.of expression is that the right thing is to believe anyone who's
:05:49. > :05:51.anyone, the Governor of the Bank of England or so on, let them see
:05:52. > :05:58.exactly what they wanted you are what will happen and then lets
:05:59. > :06:04.people judge. The only problem with what is happening with this debate,
:06:05. > :06:09.and the fear factor, you introduce fear, people who are sensible and
:06:10. > :06:13.who now that you're scaremongering will vote the other way. Some
:06:14. > :06:28.believe there is scaremongering on both sides. If we stay in the EU it
:06:29. > :06:31.will be a disaster. When we look at the IMF and Mark Carney and all of
:06:32. > :06:34.those who have been warning about the disastrous consequences of
:06:35. > :06:55.Brexit, I am reminded of the idea that these
:06:56. > :07:00.people are not seeing anything other than what you expect they would say.
:07:01. > :07:06.Maybe they believe it, perhaps they do not believe it with quite the
:07:07. > :07:16.intensity with which the express it. One of the summaries which was made
:07:17. > :07:25.by Nigel Lawson, asserting clarity has emerged from it, it is not clear
:07:26. > :07:29.from the economic outcome, and he is a Brexit man, we have to concede
:07:30. > :07:33.that it is not clear what the economic impact will be. There may
:07:34. > :07:43.be, at least in the shorter medium adverse effects. The real issue here
:07:44. > :07:48.for Brexiters is not economic, it is political. Do you want to be a
:07:49. > :07:52.self-governing country? Every time we have seen the arguments made in
:07:53. > :08:00.front of an audience, that draws the biggest cheer. What will be the role
:08:01. > :08:11.for Britain on its own? Back of the queue, back of the line. He was
:08:12. > :08:23.translating for the English! This is a terribly important point about, he
:08:24. > :08:27.would say that, wouldn't they? The big government fanatics, European
:08:28. > :08:35.unionists, they are in some kind of oligarchic relationship with
:08:36. > :08:37.ordinary people. What has happened to democratic accountability? The
:08:38. > :08:42.European Union is effectively run by its commission, who are an elected
:08:43. > :08:46.officials. There is a sense that you're not only losing
:08:47. > :08:52.self-government, but Democratic accountability. This is the real
:08:53. > :09:00.threat, the real risk of remaining. The parliament is elected. The
:09:01. > :09:07.commissioners are chosen by the government who are elected. They are
:09:08. > :09:16.chosen, appointed officials. By the government, who are elected. And the
:09:17. > :09:22.commission creates legislation. If you're asked me what side, I am born
:09:23. > :09:28.in England and everything, I would see perhaps that I wanted to remain
:09:29. > :09:33.in. This thing of Brexit scares me I would say, right now, because, as an
:09:34. > :09:37.immigrant in this country, one of the biggest points is that we want
:09:38. > :09:43.to get out so we can control immigration and all of these types
:09:44. > :09:49.of things. But Europe has a huge problem with immigration. So does
:09:50. > :09:54.the whole world. It is reaching terrifying proportions. The
:09:55. > :10:03.migration crisis, which should have been a temporary crisis, has become
:10:04. > :10:11.a permanent tragedy... You are pinpointing a problem which does not
:10:12. > :10:15.exist in Britain. I am talking about the incompetence of the European
:10:16. > :10:23.Union. If it exists for anything it is to solve, or deal with, problems
:10:24. > :10:28.like the migration crisis. If the United States incompetent? It has
:10:29. > :10:31.been fundamentally unable... That has nothing to do with the EU. It
:10:32. > :10:38.cannot deal with its immigration problem. But the US is exactly the
:10:39. > :10:48.model that the US heading for. This federal Europe. The United States of
:10:49. > :10:53.Europe. Europeans around Europe, do you think that you have a problem
:10:54. > :11:03.with migration? That is alive. In Uganda we have a problem, of
:11:04. > :11:09.refugees. Kenya has many. If I take you to history, who has settled in
:11:10. > :11:20.all of these places? Europeans. So it was very good for you to migrate.
:11:21. > :11:25.They do not want us to come here? Most of my 45 years in journalism, I
:11:26. > :11:28.have travelled and lived in distant parts of the world, I reproach
:11:29. > :11:35.myself and most of my colleagues for not having realised that this divide
:11:36. > :11:44.between the rich world and the poor world, there haves and the have
:11:45. > :11:50.nots, could not be sustained. The millions of have nots, who have
:11:51. > :11:55.satellite television or more Bell telephones, they now know how the
:11:56. > :12:05.rich live, and they are no longer willing to have more generations...
:12:06. > :12:13.They want to go to Britain, and Britain does not let them in. It is
:12:14. > :12:17.a question of whether you have a policy, a political union which is
:12:18. > :12:20.capable of dealing humanely and justly with that kind of problem.
:12:21. > :12:25.The thing that has been so scandalous of the EU's handling of
:12:26. > :12:30.migration is that they have made a total mess of it and created a
:12:31. > :12:37.prolonged, global tragedy. Why is Britain not taking any of them? That
:12:38. > :12:39.is the point I am making. I am talking about the effectiveness of
:12:40. > :12:48.the European Union as a political union. We talk about Brexiters, and
:12:49. > :12:51.immigration is at the centre of the Brexiters. What they do not realise
:12:52. > :12:59.is that Britain has not taken any immigrants. You very accurately put
:13:00. > :13:03.your finger on something of the British people's psychology, which
:13:04. > :13:13.is that we do not like to be lead and told what to do, -- bullied. Can
:13:14. > :13:17.I ask you something else, if the British people do not understand the
:13:18. > :13:22.facts, and we do not quite know which are the facts, and we look at
:13:23. > :13:29.who should we trust in readership, on the one side we have foreign
:13:30. > :13:37.leaders who have Britain's best interestWomack at heart, Barack
:13:38. > :13:41.Obama, on the other side there is Vladimir Putin, married Le Pen,
:13:42. > :13:50.George Galloway... Hang on, you do not have to equate the Brexit
:13:51. > :13:54.campaign with the most disreputable people in the campaign. Michael
:13:55. > :14:05.Gove, Nigel Lawson. Foreign leaders? They should not get all weekend.
:14:06. > :14:09.This is a question for the British. The reason that European leaders
:14:10. > :14:12.specifically cannot be trusted on this is because the Europeans are
:14:13. > :14:17.terrified that if there is a Brexit it will create a domino effect and
:14:18. > :14:27.that other countries, which as you know have tremendously and -- have
:14:28. > :14:34.tremendously Euro-sceptic movements, that these movements. To demand
:14:35. > :14:39.their own exit strategy. That is a fair point. But that means it is so
:14:40. > :14:50.important that Britain stays on. That we avoid Europe becoming part
:14:51. > :14:57.of the extreme right-wing. You are exacerbating that kind of far right
:14:58. > :15:08.nationalism by enforcing best. Look at Ukip in this country and Brexit.
:15:09. > :15:11.The intensity of this debate, it strikes me that perhaps everyone is
:15:12. > :15:16.missing the point. They talk about Europe as if it is static. It is
:15:17. > :15:22.not, it is highly dynamic. There are forces at work in all of the major
:15:23. > :15:26.Western European countries which are heading for a kind of Brexit of
:15:27. > :15:32.their own. We do not know how strong those forces will be a couple of
:15:33. > :15:38.years from now. It might be that the people who wish for a deeply
:15:39. > :15:45.reformed Europe will be pushing on an open door. That is if Brexit does
:15:46. > :15:55.not win, and I do not think that it well. I think we will see a repeat
:15:56. > :16:01.of the previous referendum. They did not take the opportunity to reform
:16:02. > :16:05.when Cameron went to re-negotiate. He presented them with a mild,
:16:06. > :16:10.lukewarm reform agenda and the effectively sent him away with
:16:11. > :16:16.almost nothing. The consequence is that you have to assume that the EU
:16:17. > :16:28.is unreformable and the ways that matter. It will not back down on it
:16:29. > :16:33.ideological commitment to oligarchy. I am struck by the same is Hollywood
:16:34. > :16:39.screenwriter who said, nobody knows anything.
:16:40. > :16:44.Afghanistan and Nigeria are two very corrupt countries, according to the
:16:45. > :16:50.British Prime Minister. And at just about anybody who has had to deal
:16:51. > :16:54.with those nations. How much of a difference will the conference me?
:16:55. > :16:57.Shall we talk about Africa first? I was very struck by what the Nigerian
:16:58. > :17:05.president said, because it chimed with what I had heard at eight
:17:06. > :17:09.conferences. It is not the money going into Africa we should worry
:17:10. > :17:16.about, it is the money coming out and going into Britain. Is that what
:17:17. > :17:21.you think? That is half the story in terms of British responsibility. The
:17:22. > :17:31.other guys, who helped bring some of these people the power. In Uganda,
:17:32. > :17:41.for a to become president, but Asian intelligence -- British intelligence
:17:42. > :17:49.put him there. How corrupt is that government that they have helped to
:17:50. > :17:55.put in place? In Uganda, the President's wafer is one of the most
:17:56. > :18:01.powerful ministers and government. His son is the commander of special
:18:02. > :18:09.forces. His brother is a general, he is corrupt to the rot. And then they
:18:10. > :18:15.use the same special forces to oppress and kill our people. In the
:18:16. > :18:22.name of what? Stability? In the name of keeping their loot 's. That is
:18:23. > :18:27.why I said it was half of the story. He is right to show some
:18:28. > :18:32.responsibility. But he is the Minister of oil. He is the Minister
:18:33. > :18:37.of Finance and Nigeria, he is the president. Why? Because when he came
:18:38. > :18:41.to power he was doing great work to stop corruption. He could not trust
:18:42. > :18:50.anybody in Nigeria to take those additions. They would steal the
:18:51. > :18:58.money. It shows how deeply entrenched corruption errors. As a
:18:59. > :19:08.Ugandan, what concerns me more is those who are stealing the money. If
:19:09. > :19:11.the president stops the money being looted, by Nigerian people, there
:19:12. > :19:17.will be nothing for the British to keep in their banks. This is much
:19:18. > :19:20.wider than Africa. I spoke to somebody who monitors the situation
:19:21. > :19:26.very carefully and pointed out that quite rich countries like Russia and
:19:27. > :19:30.China have really, really serious problems with corruption and we
:19:31. > :19:35.tolerate it. If you want to get rid of corruption, you have to get rid
:19:36. > :19:40.of tax havens. The conduit of all that money that is taken from
:19:41. > :19:45.Africa, but also Russia, etc, goes through tax havens. That ridiculous
:19:46. > :19:58.conference in London, knowing the role of the city in corruption, it
:19:59. > :20:10.is hypocritical. There is a tax haven in many places for each
:20:11. > :20:13.country. You want to get rid of corruption? You want to get rid of
:20:14. > :20:20.tax havens, because they are parasites. I have a bit of a problem
:20:21. > :20:25.with the kind of surveillance that would be necessary to get rid of
:20:26. > :20:29.every conceivable money-laundering and tax scheme. Effectively you have
:20:30. > :20:32.a global police force which has access to all the financial
:20:33. > :20:38.information about every individual. Because that is how it has to be.
:20:39. > :20:41.The political answer is, rather than that technical financial pursuit and
:20:42. > :20:47.police state kind of pursuit, the political answer, we really know how
:20:48. > :20:51.to cure mass corruption. Democratically accountable
:20:52. > :21:00.government and free-market economics. That creates corruption.
:21:01. > :21:07.I agree with democratically government. Nationalised monopoly
:21:08. > :21:11.industries, the old Soviet Union, the perfect model of systemic
:21:12. > :21:14.corruption. If you get rid of those and if you do not prop up
:21:15. > :21:21.governments of that kind, with misguided aid, pour money into
:21:22. > :21:25.corrupt governments and maintain the talent here and, corrupt
:21:26. > :21:30.governments, you're halfway there. One of the interesting aspect of the
:21:31. > :21:35.debate touched on aid, with David Cameron saying, in effect, we cannot
:21:36. > :21:44.use aid as a lever on this. Last time I looked, foreign aid to Africa
:21:45. > :21:50.since the colonialisation ran to the best part of $1 trillion. Anybody
:21:51. > :21:55.who has travelled in Africa knows how little Africa has to show for
:21:56. > :22:00.that. I would say that we should concentrate on doing what we can.
:22:01. > :22:04.Janet is right, we're probably not prepared to take these police state
:22:05. > :22:09.tactics that are necessary to prepare discover who the beneficial
:22:10. > :22:17.owners of the property is. But we can do something about aid. We can
:22:18. > :22:21.not continue to pour money into projects they should be funding
:22:22. > :22:27.themselves. But you're leaving the problem here. The idea is right
:22:28. > :22:31.here. Democratically accountable governments. Those are the
:22:32. > :22:38.governments. The acceptance of those governments, who are totally
:22:39. > :22:43.corrupt, let me give you an example, in this country, in Britain, there
:22:44. > :22:48.is a lot of corruption, people stealing money in certain ways,
:22:49. > :22:53.giving themselves contracts, but can you imagine David Cameron going to
:22:54. > :23:03.the Ministry for health in broad daylight and steals ?2 million. He
:23:04. > :23:07.would be sent to prison. But David Cameron, Barack Obama, all of these
:23:08. > :23:16.leaders, know very well which countries... For example, Uganda
:23:17. > :23:28.itself, the money that came for aid, the ministers stall it. There is not
:23:29. > :23:40.a single project... Ministers steal it, it becomes a scandal. This money
:23:41. > :23:41.goes in the city and in Wall Street. Part of the money comes here, but a
:23:42. > :23:56.lot remained at home. The cost is destroying personal
:23:57. > :24:02.privacy. That is a serious sacrifice. The idea that every
:24:03. > :24:08.single person is guilty without due process, there is no assumption of
:24:09. > :24:13.innocence, the invasion of privacy. But these should be pursued, it is
:24:14. > :24:22.immoral. Of course it is, but how do you distinguish the tax evaders? We
:24:23. > :24:28.do it with large deposits. If you turn up with more than ?10,000,
:24:29. > :24:35.people ask questions. You can do it in terms of skill. The only
:24:36. > :24:43.practical way for this to work would be if the 200 members of the native
:24:44. > :24:53.nations had universal agreement on the measures which needed to be
:24:54. > :24:57.taken. That is light years away. If the money was denied to the Chelsea
:24:58. > :25:02.football club are to the banks and the traders in the city, where would
:25:03. > :25:12.it go? They would find somewhere else to put it. Money inboxes. How
:25:13. > :25:20.do you allow these people to bring billions, hundreds of millions?
:25:21. > :25:23.Baroness Scotland, she said that the 53 countries of the Commonwealth
:25:24. > :25:27.could reach an agreement on this. It might not be the 200 countries of
:25:28. > :25:37.the world, but that could be a big start. But do you know why they
:25:38. > :25:40.cannot? All of these looters in Africa, who are not part of the
:25:41. > :25:49.Commonwealth, they will not allow that to take place. There are now
:25:50. > :26:02.two presidents in our country. But one of them talked very badly and
:26:03. > :26:07.abused the ICC, and the Americans, the Canadians walked out of the
:26:08. > :26:13.ceremony to inaugurate him. The problem is, those leaders in Africa
:26:14. > :26:20.will not... So you need to help us overthrow them, help us make sure
:26:21. > :26:27.that we have democracy. It useless organisation!
:26:28. > :26:39.You would say that! We are back next week at the same time.
:26:40. > :26:57.Please make a date with Dateline. Goodbye.
:26:58. > :27:02.Good morning. I will take you back to last weekend, when we had a
:27:03. > :27:03.summer. We