14/05/2016

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:00:31. > :00:40.Welcome to Dateline London. International Monetary Fund suggests

:00:41. > :00:44.that it could be bad for the UK to exit the European Union. Corruption

:00:45. > :00:52.is also a big prop on for Africa and the developing countries, but how

:00:53. > :00:59.big a problem for us? IM joined by -- I am joined by several guests

:01:00. > :01:04.this morning. The governor of the Bank of England,

:01:05. > :01:07.Mark Carney, pointed out that the biggest political decision in the

:01:08. > :01:14.ways of most British people, voting to leave the European Union, put

:01:15. > :01:18.provoke a technical recession. The IMF has also suggested that things

:01:19. > :01:24.could get rough. With so many heavyweights against Britain leaving

:01:25. > :01:32.the EU, why are the opinion polls so close? Mark Carney is a serious

:01:33. > :01:35.person making a serious point, and he has been ready chilled by some

:01:36. > :01:43.people. The operative word was "could". A technical recession,

:01:44. > :01:48.whatever that is. It sounds like they are talking to six-year-olds.

:01:49. > :02:00.This is precisely the point. The more big battalions that are brought

:02:01. > :02:05.into argue in apocalyptic terms, the more people suspect this is a stitch

:02:06. > :02:10.up. People are not believing, even if these arguments are credible and

:02:11. > :02:13.sound, there are very few empirical facts because you're prophesying

:02:14. > :02:19.about the future, which is always a dodgy thing to do, especially when

:02:20. > :02:25.you are an economist. You get it right so often! People are thinking,

:02:26. > :02:31.why are these people trying to bully me, frighten me, threaten me? The

:02:32. > :02:33.British population, in my experience, is the most resilient

:02:34. > :02:38.population in the world when it comes to being bullied and

:02:39. > :02:41.threatened. They do not like it. But Mark Carney, if he did not see

:02:42. > :02:46.something which he believes in about this, and it goes terribly wrong, it

:02:47. > :02:52.is very difficult to say that the biggest decision in our lifetime, to

:02:53. > :02:58.get out of the EU, would result in everything being hunky-dory. I did

:02:59. > :03:05.not say that he should not have said it. Your question was about public

:03:06. > :03:10.opinion. It is all right for him to have said it, it is a question of

:03:11. > :03:13.how you take it. The uncertainty, the risk is what all of these big

:03:14. > :03:18.battalions who are coming into this fight are talking about. There are

:03:19. > :03:24.uncertainties and risks about staying in. This is a train heading

:03:25. > :03:27.very fast in a direction that most people, or many people in this

:03:28. > :03:36.country, do not like. The question is, how much risk is there? How much

:03:37. > :03:43.risk is there in staying in? There is risk in either option, because

:03:44. > :03:51.the EU is changing as well. Look at foreign investment, growth, they are

:03:52. > :04:02.stalling. Why? Not because the British people does not believe that

:04:03. > :04:05.it will be unknown quantities and the economy does not like unknown

:04:06. > :04:13.and it is better to continue with the economic situation that we have.

:04:14. > :04:22.I think, basically, they have lost the economic argument, the

:04:23. > :04:29.Brexiters. Their one argument they are strong on his immigration. The

:04:30. > :04:43.economy, it is quite clear, it will be MS and renegotiation of lots of

:04:44. > :04:48.things. -- it will be a mess. Confidence and trust is not here.

:04:49. > :04:54.The Prime Minister clearly is thinking along the same lines as

:04:55. > :04:59.Mark Carney, because he again has been talking about problems with

:05:00. > :05:05.exports to the European Union if we were to pull out, that there would

:05:06. > :05:09.be tariff barriers. He needs to learn a few lessons about British

:05:10. > :05:15.society. I am an outsider, but I have some friends who are British

:05:16. > :05:21.and we were discussing it. Someone said, I would really like to stay

:05:22. > :05:32.in, but these things are attempts to bilious. You believe with the

:05:33. > :05:37.psychology? What concerns me is their attempts to shut down this guy

:05:38. > :05:41.who is trying to say anything. I am such a fanatical believer in freedom

:05:42. > :05:48.of expression is that the right thing is to believe anyone who's

:05:49. > :05:51.anyone, the Governor of the Bank of England or so on, let them see

:05:52. > :05:58.exactly what they wanted you are what will happen and then lets

:05:59. > :06:04.people judge. The only problem with what is happening with this debate,

:06:05. > :06:09.and the fear factor, you introduce fear, people who are sensible and

:06:10. > :06:13.who now that you're scaremongering will vote the other way. Some

:06:14. > :06:28.believe there is scaremongering on both sides. If we stay in the EU it

:06:29. > :06:31.will be a disaster. When we look at the IMF and Mark Carney and all of

:06:32. > :06:34.those who have been warning about the disastrous consequences of

:06:35. > :06:55.Brexit, I am reminded of the idea that these

:06:56. > :07:00.people are not seeing anything other than what you expect they would say.

:07:01. > :07:06.Maybe they believe it, perhaps they do not believe it with quite the

:07:07. > :07:16.intensity with which the express it. One of the summaries which was made

:07:17. > :07:25.by Nigel Lawson, asserting clarity has emerged from it, it is not clear

:07:26. > :07:29.from the economic outcome, and he is a Brexit man, we have to concede

:07:30. > :07:33.that it is not clear what the economic impact will be. There may

:07:34. > :07:43.be, at least in the shorter medium adverse effects. The real issue here

:07:44. > :07:48.for Brexiters is not economic, it is political. Do you want to be a

:07:49. > :07:52.self-governing country? Every time we have seen the arguments made in

:07:53. > :08:00.front of an audience, that draws the biggest cheer. What will be the role

:08:01. > :08:11.for Britain on its own? Back of the queue, back of the line. He was

:08:12. > :08:23.translating for the English! This is a terribly important point about, he

:08:24. > :08:27.would say that, wouldn't they? The big government fanatics, European

:08:28. > :08:35.unionists, they are in some kind of oligarchic relationship with

:08:36. > :08:37.ordinary people. What has happened to democratic accountability? The

:08:38. > :08:42.European Union is effectively run by its commission, who are an elected

:08:43. > :08:46.officials. There is a sense that you're not only losing

:08:47. > :08:52.self-government, but Democratic accountability. This is the real

:08:53. > :09:00.threat, the real risk of remaining. The parliament is elected. The

:09:01. > :09:07.commissioners are chosen by the government who are elected. They are

:09:08. > :09:16.chosen, appointed officials. By the government, who are elected. And the

:09:17. > :09:22.commission creates legislation. If you're asked me what side, I am born

:09:23. > :09:28.in England and everything, I would see perhaps that I wanted to remain

:09:29. > :09:33.in. This thing of Brexit scares me I would say, right now, because, as an

:09:34. > :09:37.immigrant in this country, one of the biggest points is that we want

:09:38. > :09:43.to get out so we can control immigration and all of these types

:09:44. > :09:49.of things. But Europe has a huge problem with immigration. So does

:09:50. > :09:54.the whole world. It is reaching terrifying proportions. The

:09:55. > :10:03.migration crisis, which should have been a temporary crisis, has become

:10:04. > :10:11.a permanent tragedy... You are pinpointing a problem which does not

:10:12. > :10:15.exist in Britain. I am talking about the incompetence of the European

:10:16. > :10:23.Union. If it exists for anything it is to solve, or deal with, problems

:10:24. > :10:28.like the migration crisis. If the United States incompetent? It has

:10:29. > :10:31.been fundamentally unable... That has nothing to do with the EU. It

:10:32. > :10:38.cannot deal with its immigration problem. But the US is exactly the

:10:39. > :10:48.model that the US heading for. This federal Europe. The United States of

:10:49. > :10:53.Europe. Europeans around Europe, do you think that you have a problem

:10:54. > :11:03.with migration? That is alive. In Uganda we have a problem, of

:11:04. > :11:09.refugees. Kenya has many. If I take you to history, who has settled in

:11:10. > :11:20.all of these places? Europeans. So it was very good for you to migrate.

:11:21. > :11:25.They do not want us to come here? Most of my 45 years in journalism, I

:11:26. > :11:28.have travelled and lived in distant parts of the world, I reproach

:11:29. > :11:35.myself and most of my colleagues for not having realised that this divide

:11:36. > :11:44.between the rich world and the poor world, there haves and the have

:11:45. > :11:50.nots, could not be sustained. The millions of have nots, who have

:11:51. > :11:55.satellite television or more Bell telephones, they now know how the

:11:56. > :12:05.rich live, and they are no longer willing to have more generations...

:12:06. > :12:13.They want to go to Britain, and Britain does not let them in. It is

:12:14. > :12:17.a question of whether you have a policy, a political union which is

:12:18. > :12:20.capable of dealing humanely and justly with that kind of problem.

:12:21. > :12:25.The thing that has been so scandalous of the EU's handling of

:12:26. > :12:30.migration is that they have made a total mess of it and created a

:12:31. > :12:37.prolonged, global tragedy. Why is Britain not taking any of them? That

:12:38. > :12:39.is the point I am making. I am talking about the effectiveness of

:12:40. > :12:48.the European Union as a political union. We talk about Brexiters, and

:12:49. > :12:51.immigration is at the centre of the Brexiters. What they do not realise

:12:52. > :12:59.is that Britain has not taken any immigrants. You very accurately put

:13:00. > :13:03.your finger on something of the British people's psychology, which

:13:04. > :13:13.is that we do not like to be lead and told what to do, -- bullied. Can

:13:14. > :13:17.I ask you something else, if the British people do not understand the

:13:18. > :13:22.facts, and we do not quite know which are the facts, and we look at

:13:23. > :13:29.who should we trust in readership, on the one side we have foreign

:13:30. > :13:37.leaders who have Britain's best interestWomack at heart, Barack

:13:38. > :13:41.Obama, on the other side there is Vladimir Putin, married Le Pen,

:13:42. > :13:50.George Galloway... Hang on, you do not have to equate the Brexit

:13:51. > :13:54.campaign with the most disreputable people in the campaign. Michael

:13:55. > :14:05.Gove, Nigel Lawson. Foreign leaders? They should not get all weekend.

:14:06. > :14:09.This is a question for the British. The reason that European leaders

:14:10. > :14:12.specifically cannot be trusted on this is because the Europeans are

:14:13. > :14:17.terrified that if there is a Brexit it will create a domino effect and

:14:18. > :14:27.that other countries, which as you know have tremendously and -- have

:14:28. > :14:34.tremendously Euro-sceptic movements, that these movements. To demand

:14:35. > :14:39.their own exit strategy. That is a fair point. But that means it is so

:14:40. > :14:50.important that Britain stays on. That we avoid Europe becoming part

:14:51. > :14:57.of the extreme right-wing. You are exacerbating that kind of far right

:14:58. > :15:08.nationalism by enforcing best. Look at Ukip in this country and Brexit.

:15:09. > :15:11.The intensity of this debate, it strikes me that perhaps everyone is

:15:12. > :15:16.missing the point. They talk about Europe as if it is static. It is

:15:17. > :15:22.not, it is highly dynamic. There are forces at work in all of the major

:15:23. > :15:26.Western European countries which are heading for a kind of Brexit of

:15:27. > :15:32.their own. We do not know how strong those forces will be a couple of

:15:33. > :15:38.years from now. It might be that the people who wish for a deeply

:15:39. > :15:45.reformed Europe will be pushing on an open door. That is if Brexit does

:15:46. > :15:55.not win, and I do not think that it well. I think we will see a repeat

:15:56. > :16:01.of the previous referendum. They did not take the opportunity to reform

:16:02. > :16:05.when Cameron went to re-negotiate. He presented them with a mild,

:16:06. > :16:10.lukewarm reform agenda and the effectively sent him away with

:16:11. > :16:16.almost nothing. The consequence is that you have to assume that the EU

:16:17. > :16:28.is unreformable and the ways that matter. It will not back down on it

:16:29. > :16:33.ideological commitment to oligarchy. I am struck by the same is Hollywood

:16:34. > :16:39.screenwriter who said, nobody knows anything.

:16:40. > :16:44.Afghanistan and Nigeria are two very corrupt countries, according to the

:16:45. > :16:50.British Prime Minister. And at just about anybody who has had to deal

:16:51. > :16:54.with those nations. How much of a difference will the conference me?

:16:55. > :16:57.Shall we talk about Africa first? I was very struck by what the Nigerian

:16:58. > :17:05.president said, because it chimed with what I had heard at eight

:17:06. > :17:09.conferences. It is not the money going into Africa we should worry

:17:10. > :17:16.about, it is the money coming out and going into Britain. Is that what

:17:17. > :17:21.you think? That is half the story in terms of British responsibility. The

:17:22. > :17:31.other guys, who helped bring some of these people the power. In Uganda,

:17:32. > :17:41.for a to become president, but Asian intelligence -- British intelligence

:17:42. > :17:49.put him there. How corrupt is that government that they have helped to

:17:50. > :17:55.put in place? In Uganda, the President's wafer is one of the most

:17:56. > :18:01.powerful ministers and government. His son is the commander of special

:18:02. > :18:09.forces. His brother is a general, he is corrupt to the rot. And then they

:18:10. > :18:15.use the same special forces to oppress and kill our people. In the

:18:16. > :18:22.name of what? Stability? In the name of keeping their loot 's. That is

:18:23. > :18:27.why I said it was half of the story. He is right to show some

:18:28. > :18:32.responsibility. But he is the Minister of oil. He is the Minister

:18:33. > :18:37.of Finance and Nigeria, he is the president. Why? Because when he came

:18:38. > :18:41.to power he was doing great work to stop corruption. He could not trust

:18:42. > :18:50.anybody in Nigeria to take those additions. They would steal the

:18:51. > :18:58.money. It shows how deeply entrenched corruption errors. As a

:18:59. > :19:08.Ugandan, what concerns me more is those who are stealing the money. If

:19:09. > :19:11.the president stops the money being looted, by Nigerian people, there

:19:12. > :19:17.will be nothing for the British to keep in their banks. This is much

:19:18. > :19:20.wider than Africa. I spoke to somebody who monitors the situation

:19:21. > :19:26.very carefully and pointed out that quite rich countries like Russia and

:19:27. > :19:30.China have really, really serious problems with corruption and we

:19:31. > :19:35.tolerate it. If you want to get rid of corruption, you have to get rid

:19:36. > :19:40.of tax havens. The conduit of all that money that is taken from

:19:41. > :19:45.Africa, but also Russia, etc, goes through tax havens. That ridiculous

:19:46. > :19:58.conference in London, knowing the role of the city in corruption, it

:19:59. > :20:10.is hypocritical. There is a tax haven in many places for each

:20:11. > :20:13.country. You want to get rid of corruption? You want to get rid of

:20:14. > :20:20.tax havens, because they are parasites. I have a bit of a problem

:20:21. > :20:25.with the kind of surveillance that would be necessary to get rid of

:20:26. > :20:29.every conceivable money-laundering and tax scheme. Effectively you have

:20:30. > :20:32.a global police force which has access to all the financial

:20:33. > :20:38.information about every individual. Because that is how it has to be.

:20:39. > :20:41.The political answer is, rather than that technical financial pursuit and

:20:42. > :20:47.police state kind of pursuit, the political answer, we really know how

:20:48. > :20:51.to cure mass corruption. Democratically accountable

:20:52. > :21:00.government and free-market economics. That creates corruption.

:21:01. > :21:07.I agree with democratically government. Nationalised monopoly

:21:08. > :21:11.industries, the old Soviet Union, the perfect model of systemic

:21:12. > :21:14.corruption. If you get rid of those and if you do not prop up

:21:15. > :21:21.governments of that kind, with misguided aid, pour money into

:21:22. > :21:25.corrupt governments and maintain the talent here and, corrupt

:21:26. > :21:30.governments, you're halfway there. One of the interesting aspect of the

:21:31. > :21:35.debate touched on aid, with David Cameron saying, in effect, we cannot

:21:36. > :21:44.use aid as a lever on this. Last time I looked, foreign aid to Africa

:21:45. > :21:50.since the colonialisation ran to the best part of $1 trillion. Anybody

:21:51. > :21:55.who has travelled in Africa knows how little Africa has to show for

:21:56. > :22:00.that. I would say that we should concentrate on doing what we can.

:22:01. > :22:04.Janet is right, we're probably not prepared to take these police state

:22:05. > :22:09.tactics that are necessary to prepare discover who the beneficial

:22:10. > :22:17.owners of the property is. But we can do something about aid. We can

:22:18. > :22:21.not continue to pour money into projects they should be funding

:22:22. > :22:27.themselves. But you're leaving the problem here. The idea is right

:22:28. > :22:31.here. Democratically accountable governments. Those are the

:22:32. > :22:38.governments. The acceptance of those governments, who are totally

:22:39. > :22:43.corrupt, let me give you an example, in this country, in Britain, there

:22:44. > :22:48.is a lot of corruption, people stealing money in certain ways,

:22:49. > :22:53.giving themselves contracts, but can you imagine David Cameron going to

:22:54. > :23:03.the Ministry for health in broad daylight and steals ?2 million. He

:23:04. > :23:07.would be sent to prison. But David Cameron, Barack Obama, all of these

:23:08. > :23:16.leaders, know very well which countries... For example, Uganda

:23:17. > :23:28.itself, the money that came for aid, the ministers stall it. There is not

:23:29. > :23:40.a single project... Ministers steal it, it becomes a scandal. This money

:23:41. > :23:41.goes in the city and in Wall Street. Part of the money comes here, but a

:23:42. > :23:56.lot remained at home. The cost is destroying personal

:23:57. > :24:02.privacy. That is a serious sacrifice. The idea that every

:24:03. > :24:08.single person is guilty without due process, there is no assumption of

:24:09. > :24:13.innocence, the invasion of privacy. But these should be pursued, it is

:24:14. > :24:22.immoral. Of course it is, but how do you distinguish the tax evaders? We

:24:23. > :24:28.do it with large deposits. If you turn up with more than ?10,000,

:24:29. > :24:35.people ask questions. You can do it in terms of skill. The only

:24:36. > :24:43.practical way for this to work would be if the 200 members of the native

:24:44. > :24:53.nations had universal agreement on the measures which needed to be

:24:54. > :24:57.taken. That is light years away. If the money was denied to the Chelsea

:24:58. > :25:02.football club are to the banks and the traders in the city, where would

:25:03. > :25:12.it go? They would find somewhere else to put it. Money inboxes. How

:25:13. > :25:20.do you allow these people to bring billions, hundreds of millions?

:25:21. > :25:23.Baroness Scotland, she said that the 53 countries of the Commonwealth

:25:24. > :25:27.could reach an agreement on this. It might not be the 200 countries of

:25:28. > :25:37.the world, but that could be a big start. But do you know why they

:25:38. > :25:40.cannot? All of these looters in Africa, who are not part of the

:25:41. > :25:49.Commonwealth, they will not allow that to take place. There are now

:25:50. > :26:02.two presidents in our country. But one of them talked very badly and

:26:03. > :26:07.abused the ICC, and the Americans, the Canadians walked out of the

:26:08. > :26:13.ceremony to inaugurate him. The problem is, those leaders in Africa

:26:14. > :26:20.will not... So you need to help us overthrow them, help us make sure

:26:21. > :26:27.that we have democracy. It useless organisation!

:26:28. > :26:39.You would say that! We are back next week at the same time.

:26:40. > :26:57.Please make a date with Dateline. Goodbye.

:26:58. > :27:02.Good morning. I will take you back to last weekend, when we had a

:27:03. > :27:03.summer. We