:00:00. > :00:24.Hello, and welcome to Dateline London.
:00:25. > :00:30.Britain leaves the European Union the Prime Minister stands down
:00:31. > :00:38.With me today to discuss the past, the present and the future,
:00:39. > :00:42.Agnes Poirier of Marrianne, Thomas Kielinger of Die Welt,
:00:43. > :00:45.Stephanie Baker of Bloomberg News and Alex Deane,
:00:46. > :00:54.So Britain votes to leave the EU, David Cameron says he is standing
:00:55. > :00:59.down, the pound falls, stock markets take a huge hit,
:01:00. > :01:02.so let me start by asking you all in turn, what do you make
:01:03. > :01:30.We all felt a universal shock. Increasing the leave camp. I cannot
:01:31. > :01:41.shower that sentiment. I was intrigued, elated, and I believe the
:01:42. > :01:44.British people where... Stephanie. I think the vote was very narrow, and
:01:45. > :01:48.the country has to come to terms with that that the country is
:01:49. > :01:54.incredibly divided on the future is very uncertain. We have seen from
:01:55. > :02:02.the markets, in some cases it was worse than expected. For David
:02:03. > :02:05.Cameron, what went wrong. Wait a minute, I will answer the question
:02:06. > :02:16.you asked everyone else. The market did not crash. Fitzy finished higher
:02:17. > :02:22.-- the Fitzy was higher than attended last Friday. Currencies go
:02:23. > :02:29.up and down, like markets go up and down, because they overreact to some
:02:30. > :02:33.events. In both a positive and negative sense. There is an
:02:34. > :02:37.underlying stability to the British economy, which is unchanged note to
:02:38. > :02:44.what it was last week. My answer is it was not a shock at all, and it
:02:45. > :02:50.was pretty clear, contrary to Stephanie's suggestion, bearing in
:02:51. > :02:55.mind the forces that were arrayed on the half of the campaign. The Prime
:02:56. > :03:00.Minister is right, the British people spoke clearly, and that must
:03:01. > :03:04.be respected and their instruction must be carried out. So why did the
:03:05. > :03:14.Remain campaign not get there boys out there? The Remain campaign
:03:15. > :03:19.thought they had it in the bag, and they thought the more voices they
:03:20. > :03:22.had from international regimes, from banks, religious organisations and
:03:23. > :03:28.so forth, sporting personalities, they thought the more that that
:03:29. > :03:30.happened the better the campaign got. Actually, I think their
:03:31. > :03:37.campaign got worse as those advocates became louder, and people
:03:38. > :03:40.felt, you know, you're not all in it together, and you do not represent
:03:41. > :03:47.me, so stop running my country down, and think we're going to be fine.
:03:48. > :03:51.The second reason is this. Border control is not racist, and a desire
:03:52. > :03:56.to control those who are unable to come to your country is a perfectly
:03:57. > :04:06.respectable and logical thing for people to feel. They were dismissed
:04:07. > :04:10.as people who were racist, they did not listen to their concerns, the
:04:11. > :04:13.reinforced their views that migration wasn't working for people
:04:14. > :04:18.who depended on public services, that we had lost any meaningful
:04:19. > :04:23.control over our own orders and the only way to get those back was to
:04:24. > :04:29.leave the European Union and re-gain control over the borders. Leave
:04:30. > :04:35.something spoke of those things, some things did not. But the Remain
:04:36. > :04:44.campaigner address that basic concern. Let us get a European
:04:45. > :04:49.perspective on how this is being seen outside of the UK. Well, the
:04:50. > :04:56.reaction has so many different types of reactions in France. There is
:04:57. > :05:00.sadness, we have lost a member of a family, there has been a death in
:05:01. > :05:08.the European family. There is another one coming from the
:05:09. > :05:13.sovereignty, Marie le pen, and from the left, saying good news, we will
:05:14. > :05:16.hold a referendum as well, and also in other countries in Europe because
:05:17. > :05:22.it is time to get back control, as Boris Johnson said many times. Let
:05:23. > :05:27.us go back to nation states. There is another part of France that says,
:05:28. > :05:32.fantastic, it is also good news. I had friends who drank champagne
:05:33. > :05:37.yesterday, saying, for the last 40 years Britain has been the most
:05:38. > :05:41.irritating partner in the European Union, and they have always wanted
:05:42. > :05:47.to destroy Europe, they did not know whether to do it from within or
:05:48. > :05:51.outside. And now we can at least restart, reboot, whatever, the
:05:52. > :05:58.European project. So this is good news. It is quite interesting, and
:05:59. > :06:04.I'm sure there are other types of reactions. Basically we do not know
:06:05. > :06:09.what is going to happen. I do not think Britain is going to sink. In
:06:10. > :06:17.terms of the economy it is going to be fine. But of course the irony
:06:18. > :06:24.might be more bureaucracy because you have do extricate Britain from
:06:25. > :06:29.European laws, and it has been so entwined for the last 45 years.
:06:30. > :06:36.Also, what do you do with European people living in the UK? You might
:06:37. > :06:40.need more papers. There might be more bureaucracy. It is interesting
:06:41. > :06:46.to watch, and I'm sure it is the same in Germany. Unlike my own
:06:47. > :06:47.personal reaction, which was lacking in shock, the political
:06:48. > :06:59.establishment was shocked because they feel a natural affinity to
:07:00. > :07:03.Britain as a partner, and to see Britain go does not make us happy.
:07:04. > :07:12.Do you get the same sense that we have been a bit of an irritant in
:07:13. > :07:16.Europe? In the latter stages, they begin to understand that Britain is
:07:17. > :07:27.not just irritating, she is different. Reality begins with these
:07:28. > :07:32.things. Ireland is a different kettle of fish. People are beginning
:07:33. > :07:38.to understand that there is more to Britain than just saying no. Will
:07:39. > :07:42.Germany miss us? The will and they will do everything to predict there
:07:43. > :07:48.is a modicum to be found to keep her on board somehow. It has already
:07:49. > :07:54.been bandied about, spreading the word about associate relationships
:07:55. > :07:59.in the European Union. Can we have that? As long as you're willing to
:08:00. > :08:03.put an emergency brake on immigration. Blood already saying
:08:04. > :08:06.Angela Merkel should have understood earlier that immigration would be
:08:07. > :08:16.the decisive issue. -- people are already saying. Something has to
:08:17. > :08:19.give. I am sure, in the negotiations that will know when Stu, a lot of
:08:20. > :08:27.positive things will develop to make quite sure... There will be some
:08:28. > :08:33.resentment also. Why should the UK be a special case? Reality speaks...
:08:34. > :08:41.I do not think it is going to be rosy. What about the United States,
:08:42. > :08:45.Stephanie, I am afraid you will have to talk about the United States. I
:08:46. > :08:48.have been listening to people being interviewed in this treat for the
:08:49. > :08:54.leave campaign, and in fact quite a few of them have said they voted
:08:55. > :08:58.leave because President Obama asked them to Vote Remain. I will not wind
:08:59. > :09:07.it all on President Obama, but what sense do you get? -- I will not
:09:08. > :09:14.blame it all. I was just back from Scotland, where Donald Trump blamed
:09:15. > :09:17.him as well. But I do not think we can blame it on his intervention.
:09:18. > :09:21.The US obviously is looking at this with a great deal of concern. There
:09:22. > :09:29.are questions over the future of the EU. One of the remarkable things
:09:30. > :09:32.that I noted when I was up there covering Donald Trump was how he
:09:33. > :09:38.drew parallels between his own renegade presidential campaign and
:09:39. > :09:45.the Brexit vote. Talking about how people are angry, wanting to take
:09:46. > :09:53.control of their borders, so I think broadly it strengthens the hands of
:09:54. > :10:01.the likes of Donald Trump and Marie Le Pen -- Marine Le Pen. How do we
:10:02. > :10:06.go from here? We have not voted for anything, we have just voted against
:10:07. > :10:11.something. So there is no mandate as to what we want to negotiate. This
:10:12. > :10:13.associate membership is really interesting that I really wonder
:10:14. > :10:21.whether it goes any further, are other countries going to be
:10:22. > :10:27.clamouring for the same thing? Would that be bad? Not necessarily, but it
:10:28. > :10:31.creates a lot of instability. Instability is one of these words
:10:32. > :10:37.being thrown around, but this is also full of opportunities and
:10:38. > :10:43.challenges. I am reminded of 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell, and
:10:44. > :10:46.Germans were related. Look at what happened after, it emerged into a
:10:47. > :10:56.new alignment of world order is. I do predict something similar. I
:10:57. > :10:59.agree it is of similar historical importance, but we have not voted
:11:00. > :11:06.for a specific model we go on to. The distinction I would make is that
:11:07. > :11:09.we voted for change, and for a vote of confidence in ourselves as a
:11:10. > :11:12.country, to be able to take command of our own economy and destiny.
:11:13. > :11:18.There is a certain robust confidence. In the face of every
:11:19. > :11:24.dire warning, and that is another reason I think they lost, they
:11:25. > :11:35.overdid it. They promised plagues of locusts, and that the ground would
:11:36. > :11:40.open up and swallow as. If you overpromise something, people
:11:41. > :11:44.dismiss it. Are you saying that people did not want to Vote Remain,
:11:45. > :11:55.so they fed into leave? Do they think -- do you think they lost it
:11:56. > :11:59.themselves? It is usually a government's vote to lose, rather
:12:00. > :12:03.than the opposition to win. It was the remain camped to lose, they
:12:04. > :12:07.spend more money, they had most of the political players and political
:12:08. > :12:13.parties on their side. For the reasons we have discussed, it was
:12:14. > :12:22.rhetoric no one wind-up or leaving in the end. Complacency of those
:12:23. > :12:27.involved. It lost it for themselves. Last reason I think they lost it was
:12:28. > :12:33.if the Prime Minister had come back from Brussels with a more
:12:34. > :12:36.substantial set of post-negotiation outcomes, at our situation had
:12:37. > :12:41.genuinely changed, it would be more difficult for the leave campaign...
:12:42. > :12:46.But that would never have been good enough. He shot himself in the foot
:12:47. > :12:51.from the beginning. Whatever they came back with it would never have
:12:52. > :12:57.been good enough. But I thought it would be symbolic. It was symbolic,
:12:58. > :13:08.but I do not think people would have been happy in the Tory party. This
:13:09. > :13:12.campaign has revealed a lot of fractures. If you look at the young
:13:13. > :13:18.vote, what do you do in the country -- a country where people from the
:13:19. > :13:24.age of 18 to 35 voted massively for remaining? Are we saying that the
:13:25. > :13:29.votes of older people are worthless? I am not saying one is better than
:13:30. > :13:33.the other, but there is a generational gap, then look at the
:13:34. > :13:47.Tory party and the Labour Party, they are in disarray. The fractures
:13:48. > :13:50.are going to heal... Let us speak about Scotland and Northern Ireland,
:13:51. > :13:57.who voted to remain. Stephanie, just one point. Before this, I will go
:13:58. > :14:02.back to President Obama again, they said that we would go to the back of
:14:03. > :14:06.the queue. Are you getting a sense that moving forward, that is where
:14:07. > :14:12.the UK will be, at the back of the queue? It depends on who wins in
:14:13. > :14:17.November. If Donald Trump wins, the UK will not be at the back of the
:14:18. > :14:21.queue. If Hillary Clinton does, it may do. There is a lot of
:14:22. > :14:27.uncertainty over that election. Why would she want to punish the UK? It
:14:28. > :14:33.is not a matter of punishing the UK, this is the thing that has bothered
:14:34. > :14:36.me in this whole debate, is this belief that we can negotiate these
:14:37. > :14:40.great trade deals once we get out of the EU. It just goes against the
:14:41. > :14:46.very notion of how these trade deals are done. It is the bigger economies
:14:47. > :14:50.that have the power and get to set the terms. So just because the UK
:14:51. > :15:01.comes knocking on their door asking for a trade deal, well, China is far
:15:02. > :15:07.more important than the UK. But the UK was a gateway to Europe? Yes, and
:15:08. > :15:10.the concern as well as that the UK economy goal from fifth largest in
:15:11. > :15:15.the world to sixth-largest, just because of the drop in the pound,
:15:16. > :15:19.which feeds into the argument that one of the reasons the UK became the
:15:20. > :15:25.fifth largest economy is because it was part of the EU and there was
:15:26. > :15:32.that certainty. But currencies fluctuate, don't they? Yes, and it
:15:33. > :15:37.has fluctuated a lot since then. This may bring about a new boost.
:15:38. > :15:41.That is the silver lining, it could be good for exports, it is probably
:15:42. > :15:46.bad for consumers, and foreign investment will slow down. But if
:15:47. > :15:53.the pound has gone down and it is easier to invest, wide with the go
:15:54. > :16:00.down? Because of what the companies are saying. So no economic bases? We
:16:01. > :16:07.do not have certainty even over who the next government is. There was no
:16:08. > :16:10.relationship between the EU and America to begin with, we do not
:16:11. > :16:15.have bilateral agreements. So how can we say there will -- we will be
:16:16. > :16:23.at the end of the queue? He wants a deal with the EU, that is a more
:16:24. > :16:28.important deal for him. The status quo is no deal, so when he says
:16:29. > :16:34.there is no deal with the UK, that is what we have already. Let us look
:16:35. > :16:37.at where we go from here. What happens next for Europe? I know it
:16:38. > :16:45.is a big question, and all of you can have a go, but what are the
:16:46. > :16:49.possibilities now? It reminds me of the newspaper this morning, what the
:16:50. > :16:58.hell happens now? This is the 1,000,000-dollar question. Article
:16:59. > :17:06.50, if we look practically. Written has the upper hand because it has to
:17:07. > :17:11.trigger it in order for the machine to begin the process. We already
:17:12. > :17:17.have Martin Schulz in Brussels, and Jean-Claude Juncker, who I think
:17:18. > :17:21.should resign, saying that we cannot wait for another three or four
:17:22. > :17:30.months, that the Tory party resolves its leadership problems, I have
:17:31. > :17:34.sympathy for that position, yes. So they are applying pressure, so now
:17:35. > :17:42.we have to look in the small case of the treaty. What can we do? It is in
:17:43. > :17:51.the interest of everyone, I think, to go as quick as possible. I am not
:17:52. > :17:59.sure. This is a time for reflection, this discussion which is in -- about
:18:00. > :18:05.the most civil discussion, probably demonstrates that we could do with
:18:06. > :18:09.reflection before moving on. What would that do? It allows you to do
:18:10. > :18:12.what we're doing now, getting a ministerial working party to look at
:18:13. > :18:16.the key requirements the UK would want to have in our relations with
:18:17. > :18:21.the EU, it would enable the establishment of a working group, it
:18:22. > :18:27.would drop on industrialists, businessmen, people we should be
:18:28. > :18:32.engaging in the process. There is no need to rush. We are still a member
:18:33. > :18:42.of the EU for now. But we do not want it to drug for ten years. That,
:18:43. > :18:50.I accept, but Jean-Claude Juncker, instead of getting it with good
:18:51. > :18:55.grace, he has told us to get out and get on with it. I think that is
:18:56. > :18:59.wrong. We should take a little time to decide exactly how we want
:19:00. > :19:03.article 52 play out. It is our decision to make. There is a
:19:04. > :19:12.responsibility now to exercise our rights under article 50, to say we
:19:13. > :19:16.need to leave these arrangements. Angela Merkel is also asking for
:19:17. > :19:25.calm and caution and a period of reflection. Apart from all of
:19:26. > :19:31.this... You cannot trigger this process right now with the last
:19:32. > :19:39.dying embers of Cameron. But Cameron said before, he would trigger
:19:40. > :19:43.Article 50 straightaway. He was right not to. He does not want to do
:19:44. > :19:48.all the hard work. When you consider what is at stake, all of the more
:19:49. > :19:54.reason to give yourself time to reflect and give this new leader
:19:55. > :19:59.time to get into the groove. Let us go back to what you were saying
:20:00. > :20:05.earlier and discuss a bit more what an associated membership might mean.
:20:06. > :20:12.Two things to consider how this process will involve. There is a
:20:13. > :20:15.domestic one. -- Eve all. We have a huge remain majority among the
:20:16. > :20:20.members of Parliament, and they are in a position at each stage of the
:20:21. > :20:25.legislative process of Britain to put a spanner in the works and not
:20:26. > :20:29.go along with it. The process in itself is going to be difficult.
:20:30. > :20:32.Look at the European picture, they will do everything to make it
:20:33. > :20:43.possible to come to an amicable agreement. Nobody wants ever more
:20:44. > :20:49.destruction. Jean-Claude Juncker... But he is a yesterday man. He needs
:20:50. > :20:53.to watch his back. Abel will get out there dad is. It is an interesting
:20:54. > :20:59.concept, some form of associate membership. -- they will get there
:21:00. > :21:05.daggers out. Some of this has to be forged. God willing we can forecast
:21:06. > :21:09.all the doom the way, but we are likely to still be the largest
:21:10. > :21:15.customer of the EU when we leave it. I think the relationship will carry
:21:16. > :21:21.on some bases. Of course there is this floor of trade, but let's be
:21:22. > :21:25.clear, Britain is not moving off into the mid-Atlantic. We are
:21:26. > :21:29.European in so many ways. Part of history, culturally, linguistically,
:21:30. > :21:38.so I think we have got to come down the rhetoric -- combine the rhetoric
:21:39. > :21:43.and say we will not be a full member, and I think that is a good
:21:44. > :21:45.thing. I also think those who are speculating from the perspective of
:21:46. > :21:50.having wanted us to remain have got to get on board with the fact that
:21:51. > :21:55.we voted to leave, rather than their main focus being that people of a
:21:56. > :22:01.certain age voted in this direction. And the petition which has over half
:22:02. > :22:05.a million signatories to do it all again. Which is just ridiculous,
:22:06. > :22:11.obviously. People have to accept that the will of the British people
:22:12. > :22:25.has been expressed. It was close, but not that close. I think Scotland
:22:26. > :22:33.is going, and I might see in my lifetime Ireland being reunited.
:22:34. > :22:40.London might be a citystate, like the Vatican, all we need is the
:22:41. > :22:46.Pope. Come on. If Brexit happens... It is going to happen. We never
:22:47. > :22:51.thought it would happen. Many others were not shocked. But the Scots are
:22:52. > :23:00.on their way out. We should talk about the English. The Scots in the
:23:01. > :23:03.last parliament voted to remain part of the United Kingdom, and I'm sure
:23:04. > :23:08.you can appreciate they are two different questions. Membership of
:23:09. > :23:12.the EU and United Kingdom are two different questions, and more than a
:23:13. > :23:16.million Scots voted to leave the EU, so the most peculiar thing from a
:23:17. > :23:20.populist politician like Nicola Sturgeon is to trash the will of
:23:21. > :23:26.more than 1 million of her countrymen and women and say that
:23:27. > :23:31.they were wrong. But she has two ignore the 62% of those who wanted
:23:32. > :23:33.to remain? But she should not ignore the more than 1 million who voted to
:23:34. > :23:35.leave. We have just a few minutes left,
:23:36. > :23:39.so let me end by asking you all whether or not you can see
:23:40. > :23:46.a silver lining in any There was no bank failure in the
:23:47. > :23:50.wake of this. This is not as bad as the banking crisis yet. I do worry
:23:51. > :23:57.that we have only had one and day of market reaction, this really needs a
:23:58. > :24:01.lot more time to sink in, and I worry that there will be lots of
:24:02. > :24:07.volatility, but ultimately people will realise the consequences are
:24:08. > :24:13.severe, that the United Kingdom itself is in question. And I think
:24:14. > :24:22.people will be given anticipating and except, making -- and exit,
:24:23. > :24:29.making this business decisions on this. Your question, what is the
:24:30. > :24:33.silver lining? But this is good news. We will be ruled once again by
:24:34. > :24:40.Westminster rather than have our Parliament and judiciary subject to
:24:41. > :24:44.people... Do not shake your head. That is a good thing. Know that that
:24:45. > :24:50.decision has been made, I wish the BBC would get on board with that a
:24:51. > :24:59.little more. The silver lining comment is because we were mostly
:25:00. > :25:05.talking about the doom. I think we will start the European Union on new
:25:06. > :25:12.bases. A new chapter? And perhaps a more democratic one. It is a wake-up
:25:13. > :25:18.call, and Europe will have to be true to its words that they want to
:25:19. > :25:23.reformat and rejuvenate. I have always learned that this country
:25:24. > :25:30.will find the resilience to withstand this. In 1940 Church all
:25:31. > :25:36.decided to stand on freedom and courage. And I think something like
:25:37. > :25:39.that will see us through. -- Winston Churchill.
:25:40. > :25:41.That's it for Dateline London for this week -
:25:42. > :25:45.we're back next week at the same time.
:25:46. > :25:47.You can comment on the programme on Twitter
:25:48. > :26:16.Good afternoon. It has been a lively day of whether. Some places have had
:26:17. > :26:21.a bit of a charmed life, with a good deal of sunshine. But there are lots
:26:22. > :26:23.of showers. You can see a