:00:22. > :00:26.President Erdogan of Turkey has certainly bounced back
:00:27. > :00:30.This week he appeared to have the United States
:00:31. > :00:35.After a Turkish incursion into Syria denied the group that calls itself
:00:36. > :00:36.Islamic State its only border crossing, the US
:00:37. > :00:39.obligingly instructed Kurds to get out of the way if they wanted
:00:40. > :00:43.to carry on receiving American support.
:00:44. > :00:45.Mr Erdogan is not the only populist politician basking
:00:46. > :00:51.Nigel Farage, one of the prominent voices in the successful
:00:52. > :00:56.campaign to get Britain out of the European Union, appeared
:00:57. > :00:58.at a rally with Donald Trump, telling his supporters
:00:59. > :01:03.Even as in Syria some women were celebrating liberation
:01:04. > :01:08.from Islamic State by taking off their burkhas, those wearing
:01:09. > :01:11.them on the beaches of France were being ordered to take them off.
:01:12. > :01:14.To discuss all that with me this week are Arab affairs
:01:15. > :01:16.writer Abdel Bari Atwan, Eunice Goes, the Portuguese academic
:01:17. > :01:18.and journalist, Alex Deane, a British Conservative commentator,
:01:19. > :01:27.and Michael Goldfarb from Politico Europe.
:01:28. > :01:40.Welcome to all of you. Has a deal being done in Syria? There is a
:01:41. > :01:46.secret deal done by the two superpowers, US and Russia. The
:01:47. > :01:50.meeting in Geneva between Sergei Lavrov the Russian Foreign Minister
:01:51. > :01:56.and his American counterpart John Kerry, it seems they also reach an
:01:57. > :02:02.agreement about a ceasefire now. There are four questions, important
:02:03. > :02:08.ones. The first, what will happen to Isis? They are losing in Syria now.
:02:09. > :02:13.It could also lose Mose all and Raqqa. What will happen to the
:02:14. > :02:21.territory that they used to control? Who will be the sovereign that? Will
:02:22. > :02:28.it go back to the Syrian regime, or other forces? The other question
:02:29. > :02:34.which is also important, what will happen to the Syrian president
:02:35. > :02:39.himself? These are the most important questions here. I believe
:02:40. > :02:47.personally, the major problem is what will happen to the coalition
:02:48. > :02:52.after they managed to defeat Isis? If they manage to defeat Isis?
:02:53. > :03:02.Alligator stay together or will they fight each other? For example the
:03:03. > :03:08.Turks and the Kurds. The hatred towards Isis unifies everyone, but
:03:09. > :03:14.the biggest questions is Syria going to be stable after that? Will it be
:03:15. > :03:20.United Kim are Russian and American is going to continue working
:03:21. > :03:32.together or will they crush? Can you put the genie back into the bottle?
:03:33. > :03:39.I don't think so. It has been very clear in the American goal over the
:03:40. > :03:46.last 24 months has been Isis. They walked away from the red Line
:03:47. > :03:51.concerning Assad, they are focused on Isis. If they can bring Russia
:03:52. > :03:56.along, some chain of command so that the Turkish government to whom it
:03:57. > :04:00.has its own tensions at the moment, will innocence following American
:04:01. > :04:03.and Russian lead in confronting Isis, that is important. Then you
:04:04. > :04:09.have the problem of what you do with Assad, clearly you cannot stay in
:04:10. > :04:16.power. The country has been destroyed. Thrush clearly he cannot.
:04:17. > :04:25.There are so many subplots and when I say that, they are minor subplots
:04:26. > :04:34.but when the -- what the Turks and Kurds ultimately do is important. In
:04:35. > :04:39.Baghdad, they were going crazy, you have invaded a sovereign country.
:04:40. > :04:44.You can't come over. You have to control Erdogan. Can you control the
:04:45. > :04:51.Kurdish leadership? These are all questions to come but at the moment
:04:52. > :05:03.people are focused on eliminated eliminating Isis and that is
:05:04. > :05:12.important. Do you think Erdogan is focused on this? He seems to be set
:05:13. > :05:19.on his own agenda, asserting Turkish power in the region. Wanting to
:05:20. > :05:26.scare away the Kurdish forces in Syria. This latest incursion in
:05:27. > :05:30.Syria, this was not about destroying Isis, or Daesh, it was about making
:05:31. > :05:39.sure the Kurdish forces do not get above themselves. I'm not so sure,
:05:40. > :05:43.it would be good to think of the deal, the future deal of peace in
:05:44. > :05:48.Syria. It has been such a horrendous conflict with terrible impact on
:05:49. > :05:55.civilian life. There are so many players, foreign players, all of
:05:56. > :06:00.them with a different agenda. How will they agree on the future head?
:06:01. > :06:07.It is easier to keep on fighting, unfortunately. When one looks at the
:06:08. > :06:18.US backed Kurdish group in Syria, they were told by Joe Biden, moved
:06:19. > :06:22.back always stop supporting you. But it is hard to see them saying we'll
:06:23. > :06:31.go back to how things were once Isis are defeated. They did not listen to
:06:32. > :06:37.him, they defeated Isis, and said we are here to stay. The Kurds will be
:06:38. > :06:43.the next problem for the region powers after Isis. I don't believe
:06:44. > :06:48.Isis will disappear completely. They will go underground. If they go
:06:49. > :06:52.underground, this is the best thing that can happen. They are not
:06:53. > :06:56.responsible for 9 million people to supply them with electricity,
:06:57. > :07:06.education, health. If they get rid of ices, over the ground, they will
:07:07. > :07:17.go underground. -- Isis. The Americans promised to give the Kurds
:07:18. > :07:25.a state, and... A big promise. This will upset Turkey, Syria, Iran,
:07:26. > :07:33.Russia. Syria will be here and hopefully we will be talking about
:07:34. > :07:41.it for another hundred years. Western fighters have been referring
:07:42. > :07:45.to a town as Little London. Many British children, one gathers, I
:07:46. > :07:53.being reared in the ISI tradition in that town. I think you're right, the
:07:54. > :07:59.long-term is unclear. In the short to medium term it is obvious the big
:08:00. > :08:03.winner is Erdogan. He has solidified his position, overcome a coup,
:08:04. > :08:09.becomes stronger, things he gave away with things he was couple with
:08:10. > :08:13.anyway, like the airport, and he promised a time bomb to the Kurds
:08:14. > :08:20.himself having had that ability and it seems to me that the things he
:08:21. > :08:23.has given up in Europe, statements towards migration control, in return
:08:24. > :08:32.he gets these free migration for millions of Turks, brilliantly
:08:33. > :08:38.negotiated. Far better than Brexit negotiations! I think Assad is
:08:39. > :08:43.definitely going to have more time on his hands. I am fascinated to
:08:44. > :08:49.hear that a deal has been done. Where would he go? That is the
:08:50. > :08:58.question, many people in the Middle East, where I met in Beirut when I
:08:59. > :09:02.was there. They believed that there is some sort of understanding,
:09:03. > :09:10.Russian and American understanding about the future of Assad. Where
:09:11. > :09:19.would you go? Must go, to run? -- Moscow, Teheran. It could be
:09:20. > :09:25.somebody from the Army, we don't know, yet. Whoever comes in, it is
:09:26. > :09:29.an amazing achievement from Kerry. They managed to get past that
:09:30. > :09:33.situation with Russia saying Assad has to stay. If Kerry managed to
:09:34. > :09:34.turn them around from that point of view, that could be his greatest
:09:35. > :09:38.legacy. Donald Trump received
:09:39. > :09:39.some international aid Nigel Farage, who was instrumental
:09:40. > :09:43.in the campaign to get Britain out of the European Union joined
:09:44. > :09:46.Mr Trump in Mississippi, where he suggested the two were soul
:09:47. > :09:59.mates, battling the establishment. It is a strange one, because Nigel
:10:00. > :10:08.Farage is in a sense, you could argue, contributed to victory in the
:10:09. > :10:13.Brexit campaign but lost his own personal battles. Donald Trump is
:10:14. > :10:17.struggling to sustain his campaign, adapting his message, yet here they
:10:18. > :10:23.were with the antiestablishment message reinforcing each other. The
:10:24. > :10:26.idea is you sit outside the mainstream and in their words clean
:10:27. > :10:31.up Washington, that is the position you want to have to realise a
:10:32. > :10:44.lecture or success. That has a long standing tradition in American
:10:45. > :10:50.politics. Trump goes a couple of stages beyond the Reagan positioning
:10:51. > :10:59.in ostentation sleigh being beyond the outside, saying things to elicit
:11:00. > :11:05.response. He is not a small state, liberal, free marketeer. Many values
:11:06. > :11:10.he has are off the left, I think. The Nigel Farage point is
:11:11. > :11:13.interesting, he took a party way outside the political mainstream in
:11:14. > :11:23.the UK from 14 European elections, all the way to first, if you want to
:11:24. > :11:25.associate yourself with an anti-mainstream populist winner, he
:11:26. > :11:31.is probably the most acceptable force. The funny thing is, they
:11:32. > :11:39.chose to meet in Mississippi and that is a place that tries to leave
:11:40. > :11:46.the union in 1861. -- tried. And it didn't quite work out. In fact, in
:11:47. > :11:53.the insulin war, it was only one city that survive. It is also where
:11:54. > :11:59.the Ku Klux Klan was founded. It is the one state we know Donald Trump
:12:00. > :12:03.will win. In terms of what the practicalities are, I think
:12:04. > :12:08.everybody was kind of bill used. Nigel Farage was... Do people know
:12:09. > :12:16.who ears in the US? No, of course not. -- do people know who he is?
:12:17. > :12:24.What people do respect is in a nameless accent! -- English accent.
:12:25. > :12:30.I've been trying to acquire one for 30 years and it's not working. All
:12:31. > :12:33.my attempts have been mocked mercilessly. It went make a
:12:34. > :12:43.difference to the outcome of the election. It is just an August blip.
:12:44. > :12:47.It also underlines a certain kind of desperation in the Trump campaign
:12:48. > :12:51.and perhaps among his core supporters. Really, why would you
:12:52. > :12:59.listen to Nigel Farage except to say we are against the establishment?
:13:00. > :13:03.But nobody understood. You can say he was one of the leaders in a
:13:04. > :13:08.movement that one a referendum against the tide. He wasn't even
:13:09. > :13:11.invited by your friends in the Conservative Party to sit on the
:13:12. > :13:20.platform with them during the Brexit campaign. Boris Johnson and Michael
:13:21. > :13:29.Gove are the leaders... The Conservative Party didn't campaign.
:13:30. > :13:35.The party had a neutral position. There was an official campaign
:13:36. > :13:39.headed by two members, well, one member of the Cabinet and the Mayor
:13:40. > :13:44.of London. Let's not be playing too much with words there. I don't think
:13:45. > :13:51.anyone who followed it on the panel really thought anything other that
:13:52. > :13:55.Michael Gove and Boris Johnson were conservatives and Nigel Farage was
:13:56. > :14:04.the outsider. And left the party almost as soon as they want. That is
:14:05. > :14:09.a very odd one. -- one. There is a limit to the appeal of populist
:14:10. > :14:15.leaders like Farah each and Trump. There is a section of people who
:14:16. > :14:21.will always believe them. Followers will continue to listen and love
:14:22. > :14:27.everything they say. The problem for Trump and Nigel Farage, the voters
:14:28. > :14:32.who are undecided, might like some of the things they say but who are
:14:33. > :14:42.disgusted all revolted with the racism. Let's face it. Politically
:14:43. > :14:45.and correct stances they have on things like women, ethnic
:14:46. > :14:51.minorities. -- politically incorrect. There has been a a lot of
:14:52. > :14:59.talk about the rise of the populace. Is that being sustained in other
:15:00. > :15:03.countries? Yes, this is happening a year before the French presidential
:15:04. > :15:07.elections, the burkini band, we are seeing socialist and centre-right
:15:08. > :15:12.politicians latching on the debate because they are faring Marie Le
:15:13. > :15:21.Pen. She is a great friend of Nigel Farage. She wants to repeat what
:15:22. > :15:27.Britain did, voting for an exit. There is clearly a tired and it is a
:15:28. > :15:34.result of the greatest economic recession since the 1930s with 30
:15:35. > :15:39.years of economic mobilisation that it has a serious impact on the lives
:15:40. > :15:49.of the poorest, least educated and so on. And mainstream politics that
:15:50. > :15:55.has looked very samey. People like Trump and Nigel Farage sit outside
:15:56. > :15:59.it. People have been calling Trump racist, people called Nigel Farage
:16:00. > :16:04.racist and he went on to demonstrate that that accusation needn't hold
:16:05. > :16:08.you back from electoral success. You try to transcend that label, term of
:16:09. > :16:13.abuse, which has normally been the death knell of your career, Nigel
:16:14. > :16:17.Farage is the first person you would look to, unlike Marie Le Pen who are
:16:18. > :16:23.still outside the acceptable mainstream. Nigel Farage one. They
:16:24. > :16:32.make racism acceptable. No, they make being full sleigh accused of
:16:33. > :16:39.racism acceptable. -- falsely. That goes to show why the Remain campaign
:16:40. > :16:42.last. I think it is a recipe for disaster, isolation and dismantle
:16:43. > :16:46.meant in the long run. I believe Nigel Farage has tried to go back to
:16:47. > :16:52.the limelight and he chose America for that. He knows this country, he
:16:53. > :16:59.is not as he was, the star. He goes there and I honestly believe he is
:17:00. > :17:00.gaining more than Trump himself. If you can make it there, you could
:17:01. > :17:05.make it anywhere! It was Churchill who promised
:17:06. > :17:08.to fight them on the beaches - French beaches in the second world
:17:09. > :17:11.war, but he certainly The modern day battle on the beaches
:17:12. > :17:15.- and, yes, there has been one already, a punch-up in Corsica -
:17:16. > :17:18.is over the burkini ban, swimwear that covers
:17:19. > :17:20.almost the entire body. Photographs of a woman
:17:21. > :17:21.being instructed to remove hers by four male police officers
:17:22. > :17:24.was deeply unsettling for some, others insisted Islamic
:17:25. > :17:26.dress was "provocative" - a surprising statement perhaps
:17:27. > :17:30.when the French are unmoved by On Friday, the bans were thrown
:17:31. > :17:36.into doubt when the Council of State, France's highest
:17:37. > :17:38.administrative court suspended the ban at Villeneuve-Loubet pending
:17:39. > :17:55.a detailed judgement This debate is fast turning into one
:17:56. > :17:59.in which there is very little empathy from one side to the other.
:18:00. > :18:07.Had you see this working its way through the system? -- how do you.
:18:08. > :18:11.It is reflecting a hugely divided society which is on the verge of
:18:12. > :18:17.hysteria about Muslims in their midst because this is what it is
:18:18. > :18:21.about. It shows a country that has a huge discomfort with religious
:18:22. > :18:27.people and displays of religious belief. Also it has a problem with
:18:28. > :18:33.the way that it deals with women. I'm sorry to say, it is yet another
:18:34. > :18:40.case of men telling women what to do with their bodies. All these mayors
:18:41. > :18:42.in France who have imposed the burkini bands at men. The
:18:43. > :18:50.politicians who have supported the ban, they also tend to be male.
:18:51. > :18:59.Women do not... It is Barbarians. The woman perhaps would not impose.
:19:00. > :19:05.I stress perhaps, would not think about... Marie le then perhaps. Yes,
:19:06. > :19:08.but she is different. It shows opinions are changing in France
:19:09. > :19:13.because ten years ago when the first bands on displays of religious
:19:14. > :19:17.symbols in France came up, there was a consensus in France about how
:19:18. > :19:24.right it was. Now, not so much. You see editorials in the mainstream
:19:25. > :19:28.newspapers where people are clearly unhappy. They feel terribly
:19:29. > :19:34.distasteful, an infringement of liberty. It is a polarised opinion.
:19:35. > :19:39.One hand, the elites are somehow changing and starting to think about
:19:40. > :19:42.the republican model and what is the problem with militant republicanism
:19:43. > :19:46.and on the other hand you have a polarisation of we have to do
:19:47. > :19:54.something about tackling Muslims in France who have inflicted terrorist
:19:55. > :19:59.attacks on us. I'm not entirely sure this is about the French idea of
:20:00. > :20:06.secularism. There is some long history going back to the Napoleonic
:20:07. > :20:12.era when the minority that was both racial and religious were the Jews
:20:13. > :20:18.of eastern France who were finally granted citizenship and civil
:20:19. > :20:25.rights. Napoleon didn't appreciate the speed they were try to
:20:26. > :20:28.integrate. He can been something -- convened something and out of that
:20:29. > :20:35.came a whole bunch of rules about how you had to stop having Jewish
:20:36. > :20:40.names, you had to have the Christian name, also rules about trades you
:20:41. > :20:46.could do. There is history of the state intervening to force the pace
:20:47. > :20:50.of integration. This is one of total absurdity because this is a swimming
:20:51. > :20:57.costume. This is not about the Koran, this is about people who want
:20:58. > :21:00.to dress modestly I go to the beach. Sometimes we have a good laugh at
:21:01. > :21:07.the French and French officialdom, especially those who favour Brexit.
:21:08. > :21:16.But in this one, the court came through and hopefully this is just
:21:17. > :21:19.an August story. But there are 50 places or municipalities that are
:21:20. > :21:24.challenging this. They said no, we are going to impose it. They said
:21:25. > :21:29.they will carry on until the final judgment. This is the biggest
:21:30. > :21:36.present you are giving to radical Islam. Is annexed a women wouldn't
:21:37. > :21:42.go to the beaches and swim wearing bikinis. -- Islamic State. They
:21:43. > :21:47.don't go to swing at all. This is the problem and they are trying to
:21:48. > :21:54.make a link between Islamic State the burkini. Let me put you what the
:21:55. > :21:58.mayor of the town where the ban has been overturned by the court said,
:21:59. > :22:01.he said we need to decide whether we want a smiley, friendly version of
:22:02. > :22:08.sherry a law on our beaches or if we want the rules of the Republic to be
:22:09. > :22:16.implemented. -- Shari a law. When you go to divide all Morocco or
:22:17. > :22:23.Tunisia and your wife would like to swim with the burkini, do you see
:22:24. > :22:31.Tunisian police coming to you saying your wife should cover up. -- your
:22:32. > :22:38.wife would like to swim with a bikini. France is supposed to be
:22:39. > :22:47.secular, but they don't want to see a woman wearing burkini. Nigella
:22:48. > :22:54.Lawson is not a member of Islamic State she wore a burkini. Why should
:22:55. > :22:57.she not? If she is in France, will the police come to her saying,
:22:58. > :23:02.Nigella Lawson, you're not allowed to wear one. She is a well-known
:23:03. > :23:08.cookery writer, for those who don't know. I don't believe the state
:23:09. > :23:12.should tell people what to wear that unsurprised by the comparison you
:23:13. > :23:16.have just made because you maintaining Western women are
:23:17. > :23:30.required to or made to cover up? And not imply that at all. I say why is
:23:31. > :23:34.it, it is the liberal choice. If there is a Muslim citizen, French
:23:35. > :23:39.muslin citizen are not allowed to do so and the country is supposed to be
:23:40. > :23:49.liberal and secular. -- French Muslim. In terms of carwash and, as
:23:50. > :23:54.a Conservative, what is your take on this? -- in terms of coercion.
:23:55. > :23:58.Should municipalities have the right to say no burkini? Or is it a
:23:59. > :24:03.question for any government to get involved in? My judgment of what
:24:04. > :24:10.people wear is up to me, not up to the state. So you think it is
:24:11. > :24:18.ridiculous. Correct. America has best tradition of separating church
:24:19. > :24:26.and state. Has it had... Has it not struggled in the past with these
:24:27. > :24:32.issues? It is interesting, yes, of course. These so-called culture wars
:24:33. > :24:40.which have been going on most of my adult life have come, the Argent
:24:41. > :24:43.starts with religious component. For example, the very first issue was
:24:44. > :24:48.prayer in school. -- the argument starts. We had to say The Lord's
:24:49. > :24:54.Prayer every morning before school started. An atheist challenged in
:24:55. > :24:58.court and the Supreme Court says you cannot have prayer in school and
:24:59. > :25:01.from that moment to this, the religious communities in America
:25:02. > :25:07.have been for the most part on the right wing, been fighting to have
:25:08. > :25:13.what their view of the... Will have to be very quick. A quick judgment,
:25:14. > :25:19.will the ban be overturned? They will continue until there is a
:25:20. > :25:24.definite ban across the nation. I think it is an August story, we went
:25:25. > :25:33.about it next year. It suits Nicholas Arcos the. -- Sarkozy. I'm
:25:34. > :25:37.happy the ban has been lifted because the timing of this is
:25:38. > :25:43.disastrous. We'll have to leave it there. Thank you for being with us.
:25:44. > :25:45.That's it for Dateline London for this week -
:25:46. > :25:48.we're back next week at the same time.