:00:28. > :00:35.There is a new ceasfire called in Syria.
:00:36. > :00:41.The UK Parliament went back to work, but have we learned anymore
:00:42. > :00:43.about the plans to take Britain out of the EU?
:00:44. > :00:46.And Donald Trump says Putin is a better president than Obama.
:00:47. > :00:48.With me to discuss these issues are Janet Daley,
:00:49. > :00:52.Jeffrey Kofman, the Canadian writer and broadcaster,
:00:53. > :00:54.Abdel Bari Atwan, the writer on Arab affairs.
:00:55. > :01:02.Russia and America have agreed a ceasfire for Syria.
:01:03. > :01:05.Its supposed to come into force midnight Monday.
:01:06. > :01:23.I hope so. First, Monday when the ceasefire should start, it is the
:01:24. > :01:27.grand eat of Muslim. It is like a Muslim Christmas. They wanted to
:01:28. > :01:33.give the Muslim world good news that a ceasefire would be there come a
:01:34. > :01:44.halt bombing in Syria, human Terry and aid will go onto the besieged
:01:45. > :01:48.people. -- humanitarian aid. They want to rule out the Muslim
:01:49. > :01:54.organised inspiration -- organisations in Syria. Islamic
:01:55. > :01:58.State, other radical organisations. After that, there should be a
:01:59. > :02:06.resumption of the peace talk to find a political resolution. Is it
:02:07. > :02:11.sustainable? Is it going to work? Is it going to continue? We have had a
:02:12. > :02:17.lot of ceasefires before that haven't worked. It is five years of
:02:18. > :02:24.conflict, five years of farming, 600,000 people were massacred or
:02:25. > :02:33.killed. Millions are homeless or arm migrants around the country. This
:02:34. > :02:41.time it could work. At least partly if not fully. It could work because
:02:42. > :02:47.they define the priority hair which is to root out the radical
:02:48. > :02:54.organisations. -- priority here. Muslim state of the immediate
:02:55. > :03:02.threat. By removing this obstacle, maybe BP stores could be fruitful
:03:03. > :03:08.this time. A lot of optimism and the West having to turn to Russia now is
:03:09. > :03:16.a partner. Is that going to work? Syria belongs to Vladimir Putin and
:03:17. > :03:22.Assad is his man. As soon as Barack Obama pulls back from his red lines
:03:23. > :03:26.in Syria, he handed over to Putin. It is entirely in his interest now.
:03:27. > :03:29.Barack Obama is desperate to get something that looks like a
:03:30. > :03:33.successful ceasefire before he leaves office because he wants that
:03:34. > :03:39.to be part of his legacy and he doesn't want chaos in Syria to be
:03:40. > :03:46.his foreign policy legacy. Now we are completely at the mercy of Assad
:03:47. > :03:50.who is a war criminal and Putin who is controlling him. Whether this
:03:51. > :03:56.ceasefire works, whatever that means, whether it is sustained her
:03:57. > :04:01.anything longer than 48 hours is entirely to do with the politics of
:04:02. > :04:10.Putin's leadership and Obama's willingness to go along with those
:04:11. > :04:14.priorities. Policing I -- policing a ceasefire and who is having a
:04:15. > :04:21.cessation is going to be difficult. It is so fragile and difficult to
:04:22. > :04:25.sustain. Everyone wants it to happen but this is really a chess game by
:04:26. > :04:31.Russia. They are taking the upper hand. There are so many reasons why
:04:32. > :04:35.this could fail and so much of it now sits with the Russians. The
:04:36. > :04:41.opposition groups, who controlled them and how do you make them
:04:42. > :04:44.behave? How do you define where transgression is? What do you do
:04:45. > :04:49.about the tens of thousands of people who are in prison? That
:04:50. > :04:53.hasn't been mentioned. There are so many variables that have not been
:04:54. > :04:58.addressed which is inevitable because of the complexity. We have
:04:59. > :05:02.to hope it works. Turkey today saying they are welcoming mess and
:05:03. > :05:12.will sending humanitarian aid. Turkey has its own interest in this.
:05:13. > :05:21.Imagine when it is a completely different story if we have Hillary
:05:22. > :05:28.Clinton or Donald Trump. That is a new ball game. Also, the crux of the
:05:29. > :05:35.matter is what you were talking about. We have people both in Moscow
:05:36. > :05:40.and Washington, Berlin, Paris and London drawing Macs as we speak.
:05:41. > :05:49.Trying to make sense of what is going on on the ground. -- drawing
:05:50. > :05:54.maps. There are dozens of people who change loyalty. There are some
:05:55. > :05:56.position fighters that Russia continued to support who now side
:05:57. > :06:04.with terrorists. This is so complicated. How do you make sense
:06:05. > :06:10.of this? I have some hope, however dim it is, because Russia and the
:06:11. > :06:16.US, deep mistrust between them. They back opposite sides but have one
:06:17. > :06:35.mutual interest. That is to defeat IAS. -- IS. Boris Johnson has issued
:06:36. > :06:39.a statement today and he says that Russia must use all of its influence
:06:40. > :06:42.to ensure the Syrian government complies with its obligations and
:06:43. > :06:49.they will be judged by their actions. Is President Putin going to
:06:50. > :06:53.listen to that? I think he will listen. Russia has said the Syrian
:06:54. > :06:58.President, the Syrian government agreed on this ceasefire. Also there
:06:59. > :07:07.is another thing that is important and that is Turkey. They supported
:07:08. > :07:11.the agreement and Turkey is an inflammation -- influential player
:07:12. > :07:20.on the Syrian scene. Russia have the upper hand because the Russian
:07:21. > :07:23.people are on the ground. They have sampled an intervention which
:07:24. > :07:30.changed the whole map in Syria. I believe this time, when John Kerry
:07:31. > :07:36.listen to them come he agreed with them after 12 hours of talks. It was
:07:37. > :07:41.a marathon of talks. Now I don't believe... The problem is, Russia
:07:42. > :07:50.can control Assad but whether the Americans can control the fractions.
:07:51. > :07:55.They are financing best. One of the reasons we can be optimistic is
:07:56. > :07:58.Russia has been painted as a pariah state. Russia still has sanctions
:07:59. > :08:06.against it from the West because of its invasion of Crimea. If Russia
:08:07. > :08:17.can broker with the US a peace deal in Syria, it gives stature on the
:08:18. > :08:22.US. What about his relationship with President Assad? Assad will do what
:08:23. > :08:27.President Putin once. He wants to have something that looks plausible
:08:28. > :08:33.as part of Obama's legacy. They will call it a successful ceasefire
:08:34. > :08:40.agreement whatever it is. What is the alternative? To continue the
:08:41. > :08:46.bombing? Innocent people are massacred and killed. There is some
:08:47. > :08:50.hope you. I hope we can keep it. This is all for show and about the
:08:51. > :08:53.internal politics of the countries. Because before world into thinking
:08:54. > :09:01.this is somehow going to be the answer to everything in Syria. It is
:09:02. > :09:08.five years of conflict and that is light at the end of the table. At
:09:09. > :09:16.least people are talking. Nobody disagrees with that. There is some
:09:17. > :09:22.hope here. Nobody will disagree with anything you have said. Genet
:09:23. > :09:27.touched on it earlier. Obama's legacy com his foreign policy
:09:28. > :09:30.failures at the top of the list will be Syria. In August 2012 when he
:09:31. > :09:37.drew that red line and said if chemical weapons are used by Assad,
:09:38. > :09:40.we will bomb and intervene. A year later, 1400 people die and nothing
:09:41. > :09:50.happens. That is when the game changed. Suppose Obama intervenes,
:09:51. > :09:55.what will happen? It would be a third World War because the Russians
:09:56. > :10:04.would not tolerate any kind of American intervention. Look what
:10:05. > :10:13.happened in Iraq. If you stand up to an aggressive imperial power, they
:10:14. > :10:17.do tend to back down. The thing that you do that eggs them on is to give
:10:18. > :10:22.in and concede and when Obama made that gesture about Syria, Putin
:10:23. > :10:28.bought the world is my oyster. That region belongs to me. That was
:10:29. > :10:32.irreparable. We will move on because when we come back on another week,
:10:33. > :10:35.we will see the outcome from it and what has happened and stop let's
:10:36. > :10:41.hope that optimism holds fire. Parliament returned
:10:42. > :10:42.to Westminster this week. What does Brexit mean and what's
:10:43. > :10:46.the deal with Europe Janet, are we any wiser,
:10:47. > :11:02.did the Prime Minister Mrs May make There is massive confusion because
:11:03. > :11:07.everyone wants to keep that cards close to their chest. It is
:11:08. > :11:11.important to remember that there is confusion and conflict on the
:11:12. > :11:14.European side of these negotiations. There is a really serious tug-of-war
:11:15. > :11:20.going on between the commission in Brussels and the National heads of
:11:21. > :11:23.state. Two of whom are in serious political difficulties and are
:11:24. > :11:28.coming up the election. They are not going to let Brussels and the
:11:29. > :11:32.commission run away with this with their aggressive anti-Brexit stand.
:11:33. > :11:36.Some kind of agreement is going to have to be reached that sidelines
:11:37. > :11:42.the commission and Brussels which is aggressive and hostile towards
:11:43. > :11:45.Britain. There is as much massive difficulty and confusion about the
:11:46. > :11:50.outcome of these negotiations on the other side of the table as there is
:11:51. > :11:59.on ours. From Europe, the confusion comes entirely from Britain. You
:12:00. > :12:04.don't understand what we are doing? They have to trigger article 50. It
:12:05. > :12:18.will happen at the beginning of next year. This week we have David Davis
:12:19. > :12:23.saying at the dispatch box that it would be nice to be part of the
:12:24. > :12:27.single market but if it means agreeing to freedom of movement,
:12:28. > :12:35.this is not going to happen. Downing Street has to say, "This is a
:12:36. > :12:42.private view will stop" we have a government minister saying this at
:12:43. > :12:46.the dispatch box. I accept that but these are petty indiscretions
:12:47. > :12:51.compared to the disagreements between Angela Merkel and the
:12:52. > :12:57.commission about how Brexit should be dealt. Those are serious
:12:58. > :13:04.substances of difficulty. There was relief when Theresa May became Prime
:13:05. > :13:08.Minister. As opposed to Boris Johnson? According to Cameron's
:13:09. > :13:14.agenda, this was supposed to be resolved this week. Early September
:13:15. > :13:19.Britain was supposed to get a Prime Minister. Theresa May came in with
:13:20. > :13:24.stability and sobriety and people breathed a sigh of relief and said
:13:25. > :13:30.of the candidates, this is the most sensible. We saw the pound plunge.
:13:31. > :13:34.It has recovered a bit but it is still down significantly. What we
:13:35. > :13:38.are seeing this week is a warning sign that there is much more
:13:39. > :13:45.uncertainty to come, that Theresa May did a good job of keeping things
:13:46. > :13:53.below the boiling point but you say the line about Brexit is Brexit.
:13:54. > :14:03.Brexit means Brexit. What does it mean? They are spending vast amounts
:14:04. > :14:08.trying to figure this out. We suggest it is going to have a lot of
:14:09. > :14:12.fight ahead and more instability. While I agree their raw problems in
:14:13. > :14:17.Europe, I think the real problem is going to be here, building a
:14:18. > :14:23.consensus and imposing it. Even within her party, this issue of
:14:24. > :14:32.mobility is so essential to the British economy, the access of the
:14:33. > :14:39.city and Finance to Europe... When we look at the British, they are
:14:40. > :14:47.very clever. I believe, OK, they kept their class -- cards close to
:14:48. > :14:53.their chests, but they don't have a plan. They have a plan, they do.
:14:54. > :15:03.They are waiting to see where their interest is. What is the plan? Two
:15:04. > :15:15.years' time, they will come up with an idea where they want another
:15:16. > :15:23.referendum. To be honest, definitely this dragging on and on, it means
:15:24. > :15:33.Britain would like to stay... We want our cake and wanting to eat it.
:15:34. > :15:42.We haven't triggered article 50 yet. Why not? What are you waiting for?
:15:43. > :15:49.Nobody expected the vote to go this way. The referendum was supposed to
:15:50. > :15:55.be a matter of course. David Cameron, nobody planned for this.
:15:56. > :15:58.Nobody anticipated it. It was a bad political move all round and nobody
:15:59. > :16:04.had a clear idea of what the objectives were for this if we voted
:16:05. > :16:10.to leave. They were astounded by the popular majority in favour of
:16:11. > :16:13.leads-macro. Now they are having to examine the possibilities for Brexit
:16:14. > :16:17.that's why the vote went in the way it did and what it will take to
:16:18. > :16:25.accommodate the clear wish of the electorate. How you sustain a
:16:26. > :16:29.prosperous British economy while accommodating those conflicting
:16:30. > :16:34.aspirations. It is an impossible task and with all due respect, there
:16:35. > :16:44.is no plan. The only plan is to see what they can come up with. It is in
:16:45. > :16:53.Europe's interests as well. The Europe economy is in more jeopardy.
:16:54. > :16:57.When you think, OK, we have had three months. They went on holiday
:16:58. > :17:08.presumably and they have come back fresh. There is 100 and 80 staff --
:17:09. > :17:27.180 staff. What are they doing? They are researching legally. It is
:17:28. > :17:37.called governing. Do you think Boris Johnson is capable of negotiating?
:17:38. > :17:42.Liam Fox, for example. The Foreign Minister met him at length. He said
:17:43. > :17:48.to me that this man is learning the basics. That is not true. I have
:17:49. > :17:51.known Liam Fox the many years and he has a very strong transatlantic
:17:52. > :18:09.connection. That was his chief calling card. We are not a priority.
:18:10. > :18:17.This business about AQ and negotiations, T tip has been dead in
:18:18. > :18:26.the water. There isn't any queue any more. We are talking about America
:18:27. > :18:28.here. I will flip the topics are little bit because the polls are
:18:29. > :18:31.neck and neck. The speeches from Hilary Clinton
:18:32. > :18:33.and Donald Trump more Still two months to go before
:18:34. > :18:38.the November eighth poll. Jeffry you have just returned
:18:39. > :18:57.from the Americas Counting the days till it ends. What
:18:58. > :19:01.we are seeing is Trump's failure at the Republican convention. Hillary
:19:02. > :19:07.Clinton had a ten point lead. You can sustain that over three, four
:19:08. > :19:12.months. His attacks on her integrity do stick. You saw the polls tighten
:19:13. > :19:17.and the latest one that came out yesterday showed she is back up to a
:19:18. > :19:23.four point margin. The complex American system, the National polls
:19:24. > :19:29.don't matter. The electoral College is what matters. She needs 270
:19:30. > :19:35.electoral votes. There are dozens of ways for her to get that. She seems
:19:36. > :19:44.to have a secure path. Trump has one or two. We will see a slim Donald
:19:45. > :19:49.Trump victory which is unlikely to be other extreme of Hillary Clinton
:19:50. > :19:55.landslide. There is indication barring some unknown that you have
:19:56. > :20:03.to be cautious 59 days out that she will win still. What do you think,
:20:04. > :20:12.Agnes? The polls as we get closer should become more rapid. She should
:20:13. > :20:26.be far ahead. It is always, "Oh, yes, but she is unpopular. " There
:20:27. > :20:30.is no problem with Hillary. It would be a third time that the Democrats
:20:31. > :20:39.which is always difficult. She is part of a dynasty and she would come
:20:40. > :20:44.after her husband but she would make a great President. Look at the
:20:45. > :20:52.alternative. After Brexit, I thought Donald Trump is going to be
:20:53. > :21:04.President. I hope the nightmare is going to end. Trump approves of
:21:05. > :21:08.Putin more than he approves of Obama and 84% approval rating. He doesn't
:21:09. > :21:15.know what happens to people who disapprove of Putin. The degree of
:21:16. > :21:18.ignorance is absolutely terrifying and it is true that Hillary should
:21:19. > :21:23.be doing a lot better. Unfortunately, she has a lot of
:21:24. > :21:26.baggage and people regard her as dodgy and it is unfortunate that it
:21:27. > :21:32.wasn't somebody more... Perhaps it would have been no less popular
:21:33. > :21:36.figure but somebody like Joe Biden who is running against Donald Trump.
:21:37. > :21:41.There would be the three presidential debates and that is
:21:42. > :21:47.Donald Trump's last chance. If you look at his style and his inability
:21:48. > :21:51.to study the issues. Hillary Clinton knows her stuff and knows foreign
:21:52. > :21:54.policy better than anybody on the planet and knows a deep
:21:55. > :21:57.understanding of domestic policy. If she doesn't misstep and if the
:21:58. > :22:06.moderators of these debates hold Trump to account, the instance, the
:22:07. > :22:10.guy from NBC letting Donald Trump getting away with these lies, if
:22:11. > :22:16.they do a better job than him, this is Hillary's. These will be
:22:17. > :22:26.compelling television moments. Donald Trump goes off on a wandering
:22:27. > :22:31.around the issue. They are out and out lies. He said he didn't support
:22:32. > :22:38.the Iraq war. That is not what he said to Howard Stern at the time.
:22:39. > :22:47.Later he recounted. He said this week, "No, I never supported it."
:22:48. > :22:52.Maybe he is a clown. Maybe he is a warmonger. Why this hatred towards
:22:53. > :23:00.his statement that Putin is doing better? Maybe it is good for us.
:23:01. > :23:06.Maybe if there is some understanding between the American President and
:23:07. > :23:13.the Russian President. This could be a recipe for peace. It is not as
:23:14. > :23:17.sophisticated as that. He is not saying Putin is a dangerous man but
:23:18. > :23:22.we can find ways of dealing with him. He is saying, "I have my him
:23:23. > :23:33.because he is the better Mafia boss, the more successful boss of his
:23:34. > :23:36.country." He is doing that by crushing human rights, crushing free
:23:37. > :23:45.media. Is that what you want and would it be advisable? Presidents
:23:46. > :23:51.invaded Iraq and killed millions of people. Let us be frank. Putin, I am
:23:52. > :23:56.not defending him but he revived Russia as a super fire --
:23:57. > :24:01.superpower. Now he has the upper hand in the Middle East and Ukraine.
:24:02. > :24:07.That is because of the weakness of Western leadership. He is a good
:24:08. > :24:12.President for his own people. What is wrong with that? If I disagree
:24:13. > :24:19.with them, they are exiled or out of a job. Russia has gained and Putin
:24:20. > :24:25.has gained the position he has three Western weakness. That was the fault
:24:26. > :24:32.of the Obama administration. Would Donald Trump be stronger? Hillary
:24:33. > :24:39.would be. What Trump is admiring in Putin is his iron fist. Nothing that
:24:40. > :24:49.those of us in the West to look on with affection. It proves that Putin
:24:50. > :24:54.is very clever as a lot of ex-KGB agents and he knows how to identify
:24:55. > :25:01.the weakness in the enemy. Donald Trump completely fell for it showing
:25:02. > :25:05.his great stupidity. You have a potential American President
:25:06. > :25:16.unwilling agent of Russia. This is not possible. He is saying the
:25:17. > :25:20.truth. The first time, he is not lying. The first time, Trump is not
:25:21. > :25:28.lying saying Putin is doing very well, he is a strong leader. At what
:25:29. > :25:35.cost? Is that the cost that America is going to pay to revive a country
:25:36. > :25:41.which is not sagging? We need superpowers and balance in the top
:25:42. > :25:55.of the world. When the Americans got the upper hand, what happens? The
:25:56. > :25:58.United States should become a totalitarian country? That is what
:25:59. > :26:08.you were saying. There is elections in Russia. Putin was elected.
:26:09. > :26:11.We will continue. Thank you very much.
:26:12. > :26:13.That's all we have time for this week.
:26:14. > :26:16.We will be back next week same time same place.
:26:17. > :26:22.You can of course comment on the programme on Twitter