:00:23. > :00:24.Hello and welcome to Dateline London.
:00:25. > :00:26.Theresa May talks of capturing the centre ground in Britain
:00:27. > :00:32.The UN envoy on Syria wants to escort Al-Qaeda linked
:00:33. > :00:34.fighters out of Aleppo while
:00:35. > :00:36.Antonio Guterres, the former Portuguese Prime Minister,
:00:37. > :00:37.looks set to become the
:00:38. > :00:46.My guests today are Eunice Goes, who is a Portuguese writer.
:00:47. > :00:49.Jef McAllister, who is an American writer and broadcaster.
:00:50. > :00:59.And Steve Richards, who is a British political commentator.
:01:00. > :01:02.Good to see you. Let's start in Britain.
:01:03. > :01:04.On the right of British politics the party which created
:01:05. > :01:06.the climate for Brexit, Ukip, has fallen into chaos
:01:07. > :01:08.while the Prime Minister Theresa May has moved to
:01:09. > :01:12.out-Ukip Ukip by promising a tough line on European Union negotiations,
:01:13. > :01:14.immigration controls and a better deal for those
:01:15. > :01:16.who feel let down by the
:01:17. > :01:24.And how does any of that square with her intention
:01:25. > :01:27.of securing the middle ground of British politics?
:01:28. > :01:34.She has to weak opponents, the Labour Party and Ukip in trouble,
:01:35. > :01:38.she seems to want to take over both? I thought it was a very particular
:01:39. > :01:42.-- politically astute performance from Theresa May at her party
:01:43. > :01:47.conference. Almost everyone in the UK, like in many parts of the world,
:01:48. > :01:54.claim to be on the centre ground. It seems to me it is a meaningless
:01:55. > :01:57.term, increasingly meaningless in the fractious, factual eyes to
:01:58. > :02:04.politics we have everywhere, not just the UK. But what she did
:02:05. > :02:08.cleverly, she was known as a Remain figure, albeit a reluctant Remainer
:02:09. > :02:12.in the referendum campaign. She had to convince her party that she would
:02:13. > :02:18.deliver breakfast, and she certainly did that. They were ecstatic with
:02:19. > :02:25.excitement at her Brexit promises. And also try to frame a wider
:02:26. > :02:29.message about her politics. She talked in a way that Tony Blair and
:02:30. > :02:35.Gordon Brown never did about the power of government. I thought that
:02:36. > :02:38.was effective. But Brexit looms, and talking to people in that conference
:02:39. > :02:43.over the last few days and others, it is clear to me that it will be a
:02:44. > :02:47.complete nightmare. I think the Chancellor, Philip Hammond, is
:02:48. > :02:52.extremely worried about when she triggers article 50, what that will
:02:53. > :02:57.do to the pound. Turbulence and fluctuations are the kind of words
:02:58. > :03:01.she is using. She gave one opening speech at the Conference where she
:03:02. > :03:05.stated, friendly, the obvious on breakfast -- Brexit, and the pound
:03:06. > :03:09.fell. Some people think that Britain dropped from being the fifth biggest
:03:10. > :03:13.economy to the sixth jeering the course of that speech. And there was
:03:14. > :03:18.nothing rather later and all alarming. In this big reform bill
:03:19. > :03:21.she announced was a logistic inevitability, which she cleverly
:03:22. > :03:27.turned into a sign of political momentum. That was the easy bit and
:03:28. > :03:31.it is already difficult, and I think it will become more so. In terms of
:03:32. > :03:35.political choreography, it was brilliant and got her through the
:03:36. > :03:40.week. There was one of the standout bit
:03:41. > :03:43.for many people in the week, Marc, which was the Home Secretary, Amber
:03:44. > :03:50.Rudd, saying that foreign firms will have to tellers who their foreign
:03:51. > :03:56.workers. Apparently at the LSE some academics have been told that if you
:03:57. > :04:00.were foreign-born you cannot work advising the Government on Brexit.
:04:01. > :04:07.If Theresa May goes on and on to say she is not racist or xenophobic, her
:04:08. > :04:21.ministers are. Everyone knows it is not right that the foreigners are
:04:22. > :04:25.taking British jobs, they take them because the British are not able to
:04:26. > :04:29.take them. So by attacking and creating a climate of xenophobia and
:04:30. > :04:34.racism she antagonises the people she needs to get a clean Brexit,
:04:35. > :04:41.which is France and Germany. Merkel this week said that Britain will be
:04:42. > :04:46.harshly treated, as did Hollande, if this climate continues. And it puts
:04:47. > :04:50.people who have lived here a long time, Europeans like me, into real
:04:51. > :04:58.discomfort to live in a country which was known for fair play,
:04:59. > :05:02.courtesy and tolerance, which is now becoming a nasty country with the
:05:03. > :05:07.nasty party back. The nasty party is creating a really
:05:08. > :05:11.nasty atmosphere across the country, rising racist and xenophobic attacks
:05:12. > :05:17.across the country, it is really worrying. And some figures in the
:05:18. > :05:22.Labour Party say that it is perfectly reasonable to be worried
:05:23. > :05:26.about immigration. Actually, it is not natural to be worried about
:05:27. > :05:30.immigration and blame immigration and migrants for all sorts of
:05:31. > :05:35.problems. Most countries are worried, the Greeks and the German
:05:36. > :05:38.Starc but it is the role of responsible parties like the
:05:39. > :05:41.Conservative Party and the Labour Party and some other parties to talk
:05:42. > :05:46.responsibly. We know where this ends. This has been going on for ten
:05:47. > :05:54.years, every time they talk high on immigration, they just move the tone
:05:55. > :06:00.a few notches up. Where do we want to end up? Europe in the 1930s? Do
:06:01. > :06:04.we need to wear armbands or badges saying we migrant citizens working
:06:05. > :06:11.in the UK? It is really, really worrying. The comments of Amber Rudd
:06:12. > :06:18.RA license for really racist behaviour. Steve sees this as within
:06:19. > :06:23.the narrow frames of watching us to do within her party, good politics,
:06:24. > :06:28.but maybe not good statesmanship? It gets her through the night, in a
:06:29. > :06:34.way. It might, you know, work out better. I think it was very clever,
:06:35. > :06:41.she is the new face, she has an appeal to the shires, she seems
:06:42. > :06:46.reasonable. She is playing the Sanders/ Trump card, populism on the
:06:47. > :06:52.spending, we will now spend on social programmes again, which gets
:06:53. > :06:57.a different opinion from the Labour and the Conservative voters. It
:06:58. > :07:00.might buy her some time with the choppy Brexit waters. But I don't
:07:01. > :07:05.think they had any idea how they will get through Brexit. It is a
:07:06. > :07:08.mess, all the incentives for Europe are to be harsh and say no,
:07:09. > :07:13.otherwise the European project folder part if Britain gets a
:07:14. > :07:19.special deal. Britain needs Europe much more than Europe needs Britain.
:07:20. > :07:25.3% of EU GDP is exported to Britain, 12% of UK GDP is exported to Europe.
:07:26. > :07:29.This myth that you can easily walk away with what you want without
:07:30. > :07:34.having to give something back is just not true. Once the negotiation
:07:35. > :07:42.starts, Europe will have most of the cards, at the moment I think the UK
:07:43. > :07:50.Government thinks it will. Some people were saying that the pound
:07:51. > :07:54.will continue to go down. Who knows? To make one point and immigration,
:07:55. > :07:58.one of the problem she has, and people like the Home Secretary,
:07:59. > :08:01.Amber Rudd, I think she is quite liberal figure, privately. But the
:08:02. > :08:06.referendum happens and they can't ignore it. There is no doubt that
:08:07. > :08:10.immigration was one of the issues in that referendum campaign. I think
:08:11. > :08:14.Theresa May is not that devious a figure, although she played some
:08:15. > :08:18.clever games last week, I think. But I think she has a cheetah. Is that
:08:19. > :08:24.she has to deliver the referendum, there is no doubt that one of the
:08:25. > :08:29.issues was immigration. If that means we are out of the single
:08:30. > :08:32.market, which it will... What I find interesting, of course,
:08:33. > :08:36.immigration means out of the single market, out of the single market
:08:37. > :08:42.means the pound and customs problem at all that. The lack of preparation
:08:43. > :08:47.of the British Government is crass. The Foreign Secretary has said, oh,
:08:48. > :08:53.I will help Turkey to be into the EU. What does that mean? Britain is
:08:54. > :09:02.out. What leverage would he have too help Turkey? The Europeans are much
:09:03. > :09:05.more mature. Do they provoke xenophobic acts against the British
:09:06. > :09:11.working in Europe for living in Europe? Jaguars sales are down,
:09:12. > :09:16.apparently, in Europe, because nobody wants to buy British cars any
:09:17. > :09:21.more. It is not xenophobia, that is a reasonable economic choice. It is
:09:22. > :09:25.interesting. I think there will be that pulling apart. From my point of
:09:26. > :09:29.view, I am an American living in this country, I have lived here for
:09:30. > :09:34.a long time. I like the sense of Britain as an open country where I
:09:35. > :09:39.believe that migration has been beneficial to the economy. So this
:09:40. > :09:46.pains me. There is another wider point, which is internal. For now,
:09:47. > :09:52.her speech was very astute and captured not the centre ground, but
:09:53. > :09:55.the mood of the country. And also an economic policy, thinking already
:09:56. > :10:00.about the prospects of Brexit. But will the party support her. Those
:10:01. > :10:05.MPs that created a lot of trouble for David Cameron when he tried to
:10:06. > :10:11.be a compassionate conservative, what do they say about taxation? Mrs
:10:12. > :10:14.May is a great supporter of taxation, she says it is a sign of
:10:15. > :10:19.civilisation. The state having a role, what will they say? When they
:10:20. > :10:23.start to realise what it means they will rebel. The Conservative Party
:10:24. > :10:25.is the most indisciplined and rebellious party in Westminster
:10:26. > :10:29.parliament. And that would be saying something!
:10:30. > :10:35.This programme would be a slightly poorer place if we did not allow
:10:36. > :10:41.people who are not British citizens to take part! It would just be him
:10:42. > :10:46.and me! Sounds like quite a good idea! I will leave now!
:10:47. > :10:48.The person in line to become the United Nations
:10:49. > :10:49.next Secretary-General is the former Portuguese Prime
:10:50. > :10:56.And how can the United Nations - or any organisation -
:10:57. > :10:58.rise to the 21st century challenges of Syria, Iraq, Libya,
:10:59. > :11:10.First of all, who is he? God he is a socialist, Catholic, a former Prime
:11:11. > :11:15.Minister of Portugal, he was the Prime Minister who took Portugal to
:11:16. > :11:20.the single currency. But ten years he was the UN High Commissioner for
:11:21. > :11:24.refugees. Where he has done a good job, according to voluntary
:11:25. > :11:29.organisations, all the NGOs, in making the case for support for
:11:30. > :11:33.refugees. That is who he is. He is also very outspoken. He is his own
:11:34. > :11:40.man, he will not be bossed by anyone. I think he would be eight
:11:41. > :11:45.Mendis UN Secretary-General. It is a tremendous job, but what a basket of
:11:46. > :11:49.problems. Aleppo, Syria, the UN talking about perhaps is courting
:11:50. > :11:54.Al-Qaeda linked fighters out of Aleppo etc. We had to think about
:11:55. > :12:01.what is the job of the UN Secretary-General. It is not God, it
:12:02. > :12:07.does not have power. But it will have the ability to agenda setter
:12:08. > :12:14.problems, it will have the ability to get countries to address certain
:12:15. > :12:22.issues. Guterres has previously told the Americans they have to do more
:12:23. > :12:26.about refugees, to support some countries to acquire independence.
:12:27. > :12:30.He is the outspoken statesman that the UN needs. Somebody who
:12:31. > :12:35.campaigned the refugees, human rights, poverty and inequality. I
:12:36. > :12:41.think he has the ability and the profile to put the UN again in the
:12:42. > :12:46.centre stage as an important actor in the world stage. It is then up
:12:47. > :12:50.for the big powers of the Security Council to do their jobs and to be
:12:51. > :12:55.less obstructive. But I think he will do as much as he can to point
:12:56. > :12:59.them in that direction. Could he get the Americans and the Russians to
:13:00. > :13:02.kiss and make up after the terrible things going on, including the
:13:03. > :13:08.allegations of hacking directed at the Russians now?
:13:09. > :13:13.It is very difficult to see. This is the fundamental structural problem
:13:14. > :13:16.of the UN building by Franklin Roosevelt and company. Unless the
:13:17. > :13:20.security council members really want to do business together, the UN
:13:21. > :13:25.obviously can't find out a way to make them do it. In the early
:13:26. > :13:29.Clinton era, when Russia seemed like it wanted to join the world system
:13:30. > :13:33.in a constructive way, and China, you could see the UN began to get
:13:34. > :13:41.momentum. But Iraq, terrorism and everything else has made this all
:13:42. > :13:46.much, much worse. I don't see anything for Putin to give up his
:13:47. > :13:51.current spoiler role. He will not be a big power in the old Soviet Union
:13:52. > :13:55.sense, but he is riding high at home because it looks like he is doing
:13:56. > :14:03.well in Syria, he gets advantage by racking up elections in Ukraine and
:14:04. > :14:06.the Balkan states. Now the US, too. I would say that the choice the
:14:07. > :14:11.Americans made in a month is probably more important for weather
:14:12. > :14:14.world order games or losers than the selection of the UN
:14:15. > :14:20.Secretary-General. One hopes it will come out, I hope, with Hillary
:14:21. > :14:23.Clinton, who believes in international institutions,
:14:24. > :14:27.development and cooperating with people. Trump is expressing this
:14:28. > :14:41.site Christ where we retreat into ourselves, all trade deals are bad.
:14:42. > :14:45.-- Trump is going into this zeitgeist. Donald Trump is not the
:14:46. > :14:49.only one saying that international institutions are suspect, the EU,
:14:50. > :14:55.the UN, the World Bank, the IMF are all going through difficult times,
:14:56. > :15:01.as is globalisation. The problem of the UN, it is a 1945
:15:02. > :15:10.Cold War institution. The Security Council is blocking everything.
:15:11. > :15:17.It is two versus three. Since then is Europe is at a disadvantage. The
:15:18. > :15:21.solution is not therefore Syria. -- sometimes Europe is at a
:15:22. > :15:28.disadvantage. The solution for Syria is the new American administration.
:15:29. > :15:30.The weak point of Putin is the economy, the Russian economy is
:15:31. > :15:39.doing badly. The only thing outside of the UN is for Europe to
:15:40. > :15:46.strengthen its sanctions. And not buy the gas? That is the question! A
:15:47. > :15:49.final word on this? Clearly the power lies in the presidential
:15:50. > :15:56.election in the United States, not been UN. -- not the UN. That agenda
:15:57. > :16:03.setting without power is part of the mix at the moment. The US president
:16:04. > :16:09.under Obama found no way through in Syria. He sounds great, let's hope
:16:10. > :16:12.he can make some kind of contribution in an otherwise
:16:13. > :16:14.nightmarish situation. Steve has brilliantly linked this into the
:16:15. > :16:15.next item. How far do his latest observations
:16:16. > :16:19.about women change the US presidential campaign when similar
:16:20. > :16:26.comments in the past seem In some cases he has been Teflon
:16:27. > :16:32.Trump, whatever your taste, people who like him I can, people who don't
:16:33. > :16:36.like him don't like him. Correct. Have I summed up the American
:16:37. > :16:41.presidential election? Very good. But there are swing voters, people
:16:42. > :16:45.who have not made up their mind, unbelievably, somehow, at this late
:16:46. > :16:50.stage. It is not just the sexism, it is the crassness and Egypt is of the
:16:51. > :16:56.comments. I can do anything I want with them because I a star, talking
:16:57. > :17:05.about grabbing women in their private parts and how they love it.
:17:06. > :17:10.Urgh. A Trump support on the radio said, we knew he was a womaniser, it
:17:11. > :17:14.is ten years ago, do we care? Temperamentally, he is not fit. That
:17:15. > :17:19.is very interesting. One of the interesting things about this
:17:20. > :17:22.campaign is talking about policies, we can do it, but temperament often
:17:23. > :17:28.gets through to viewers on television, which is how many of us
:17:29. > :17:33.make up our minds. The last debate with Hillary and Trump did, I think,
:17:34. > :17:38.establish. He did not have much to say, he is not a reader, here is not
:17:39. > :17:43.one for policies. She got under his skin. She kept bothering him with
:17:44. > :17:48.obvious softballs that he could not resist. Whether this next debate on
:17:49. > :17:53.Sunday, where it is a town hall meeting and he has to talk to voters
:17:54. > :17:58.asking strange questions, it requires a kind of maturity and
:17:59. > :18:03.gravitas, that is what has worked in the past, a certain ability to
:18:04. > :18:07.connect. You had to be able to take blows and keep moving. I think it
:18:08. > :18:13.favours her rather than him. He says he will attack about Bill Clinton
:18:14. > :18:17.and the sex life and how Hillary has been a gym and as a neighbour of
:18:18. > :18:22.attacks on women to her husband. I think people will be pretty sick of
:18:23. > :18:31.it. Eunice? This antiestablishment, anti-elite feeling... He said what
:18:32. > :18:37.he truly believes and feels, he is one like us. And plenty of people
:18:38. > :18:40.will see themselves in Donald Trump, unfortunately. Let's hope that some
:18:41. > :18:48.of those floating voters were truly appalled by these comments, so that
:18:49. > :18:51.he was not fit for the office. But it is probably just polarising
:18:52. > :18:56.opinion. Those that are with him applaud him, those against him were
:18:57. > :19:03.disgusted. He said these comments do not reflect who I am. Of course they
:19:04. > :19:08.do. OK. I agree with what everyone has said, but the problem is that we
:19:09. > :19:14.have been completely surprised by the result Brexit, the result of
:19:15. > :19:21.Columbia. This presidential election is still very open. His supporters,
:19:22. > :19:25.it will not make any difference. Let's hope it will make a difference
:19:26. > :19:30.on the floating voters. We need a strong president at a time of a
:19:31. > :19:35.particularly difficult situation and lots of problems. It would not be a
:19:36. > :19:39.surprise if he were to pole in reality better than the opinion
:19:40. > :19:43.polls. Because the opinion polls are ridiculed in every country. The
:19:44. > :19:52.opinion polls in France are not even taken seriously. No one listen to
:19:53. > :19:59.them. They have shown their ineffectiveness in every election,
:20:00. > :20:02.particularly a referendum. The very voters Mr Trump might appeal to,
:20:03. > :20:09.particularly those thinking of leaning towards, might not want to
:20:10. > :20:14.say that to a stranger? Marine Le Pen is 28% in the polls. I have
:20:15. > :20:20.never yet met a Frenchman who would vote better, but she is 20% the
:20:21. > :20:25.polls. If any serious Cabinet member who was 59 years old when he said
:20:26. > :20:29.it, not a 14-year-old boy, 59 years old, not that it would be right a
:20:30. > :20:37.14-year-old boy saying it, actually, but it would be the end. It would.
:20:38. > :20:43.Like you, I would not be surprised if anything happens now after the
:20:44. > :20:48.recent months in terms of elections. But I can't see up the very least
:20:49. > :20:52.how this helps him. You would have thought that amongst floating
:20:53. > :20:56.voters, perhaps amongst his core support, good old Donald, this is
:20:57. > :21:00.what we like. But surely those floating voters who have not come
:21:01. > :21:05.over to him yet will not think, wow, this is exactly what we are looking
:21:06. > :21:11.for? I can see the mental process of a floating voter which turns to him
:21:12. > :21:15.on the basis of anything that has happened since that first televised
:21:16. > :21:19.debate. In other words, in a close race it seems that in the last
:21:20. > :21:23.couple of weeks the momentum, as far as it could be measured, has gone
:21:24. > :21:28.away from him, and this will contribute to it. But I preface that
:21:29. > :21:33.would say nothing is prices me any more. I am interested in the
:21:34. > :21:36.constitutional mechanics. We have seen the house Speaker, and most
:21:37. > :21:40.powerful Republican in the country, basically distancing himself, this
:21:41. > :21:47.inviting Mr Trump from something this weekend. We have seen another
:21:48. > :21:51.Republican from the west of the United States saying, I cannot
:21:52. > :21:56.endorse him. Do you think that the party would like to somehow get rid
:21:57. > :22:03.of him and not have him? Is there any mechanism for that happening, or
:22:04. > :22:06.for him to quit? He can quit, but I can't and so what happens at this
:22:07. > :22:10.stage. The Republican National committee has to meet and find a
:22:11. > :22:15.replacement candidate, but whether that means that it is a state
:22:16. > :22:19.process to get on a ballot, whether it means you can automatically
:22:20. > :22:24.parachute in any Republican, I don't think so. I don't think they want to
:22:25. > :22:29.get rid of him. They have made their bed, they have done that with him
:22:30. > :22:32.since the beginning. He has done unbelievable, outrageous things for
:22:33. > :22:36.a huge amount of time. He has said things no American politician has
:22:37. > :22:43.ever got away with saying. He is racist, he says a judge born in this
:22:44. > :22:46.country is Mexican because he is against him in a court case, you
:22:47. > :22:51.call to the assassination of Hillary Clinton. But the Republicans have
:22:52. > :22:54.made their peace and will continue to. Some people might say it is
:22:55. > :23:01.terrible, but they will not pull him. Aside from this crass thing, we
:23:02. > :23:06.should not forget that Trump is also the result of this anger of the
:23:07. > :23:12.impoverished middle class after the financial crisis, globalisation,
:23:13. > :23:19.with the jobs are leaving. We have to take that into account. Trump is
:23:20. > :23:26.a result of the Tea Party movement and a big shift to the right of the
:23:27. > :23:30.party. The big line-up of Republican candidates, one slightly more to the
:23:31. > :23:34.left of Trump than the other. They are extremely right-wing. He is
:23:35. > :23:42.one-of-a-kind, but not so terribly different. He is responsive to a
:23:43. > :23:46.certain climate created by globalisation and the fear of it,
:23:47. > :23:53.the fear of foreigners... So was Bernie Sanders. It is all part of a
:23:54. > :23:57.pattern, post-2000 and eight. We had to take into account in some thing
:23:58. > :24:01.has to be done... That Hillary Clinton is seen as the inside
:24:02. > :24:08.candidate, 25 years in Washington or whatever. Every single thing that
:24:09. > :24:12.wouldn't past behaviour be seen as a plus, experience, I have done this
:24:13. > :24:18.job and that, it is now a big negative to some people. Like with
:24:19. > :24:21.Brexit, all the former and existing Prime Minister is backed Brexit,
:24:22. > :24:25.they were thinking of having a rally with all of them, which in 1975 when
:24:26. > :24:28.there was a European referendum would have helped the pro-case, but
:24:29. > :24:32.they decided to scrap it because they thought it would be so
:24:33. > :24:37.counter-productive, because they were the insiders. As long as
:24:38. > :24:44.politics is juxtaposed between insiders and outsiders, it is in a
:24:45. > :24:48.very dangerous place. Insiders means elective politicians. We are moving
:24:49. > :24:53.towards an anti-democratic culture, where to be seen to be on the
:24:54. > :24:57.outside is seen as an asset, the non-elected challenger. Where
:24:58. > :25:02.politicians fight each other, like they did in the European Parliament,
:25:03. > :25:08.two Ukip MEPs, that is the type of anti-elite politics that we will get
:25:09. > :25:12.if this continues. We have about 30 seconds left. You do a one-man
:25:13. > :25:17.comedy show, I don't think you can compete, to be quite honest, with
:25:18. > :25:20.the reality? You just convey Weighell at it, that is enough to
:25:21. > :25:26.keep you in the theatre for eight hours! -- you just convey we are
:25:27. > :25:32.literally. They all can't wait for no. On that happy note I would like
:25:33. > :25:33.to thank the guests and the three foreign contributors.
:25:34. > :25:36.You can comment on the programme on Twitter and engage
:25:37. > :25:39.We are back next week at the same time.
:25:40. > :26:10.Before we take a quick look at the UK weather for the rest of the
:26:11. > :26:12.weekend, I want to take you straight across to the south-eastern