:00:00. > :00:25.Hello, and welcome to Dateline London.
:00:26. > :00:28.Theresa May talks of capturing the centre ground in Britain
:00:29. > :00:35.The UN envoy on Syria wants to escort al-Qaeda-linked fighters
:00:36. > :00:38.out of Aleppo while Antonio Guterres, the former
:00:39. > :00:41.Portuguese Prime Minister, looks set to become the next UN
:00:42. > :00:49.My guests today are Eunice Goes, who is a Portuguese writer.
:00:50. > :00:52.Jef McAllister, who is an American writer and broadcaster.
:00:53. > :00:56.And Steve Richards, who is a British political commentator.
:00:57. > :01:05.On the right of British politics, the party which created the climate
:01:06. > :01:07.for Brexit, Ukip, has fallen into chaos,
:01:08. > :01:10.while the Prime Minister Theresa May has moved to out-Ukip Ukip
:01:11. > :01:12.by promising a tough line on European Union negotiations,
:01:13. > :01:15.immigration controls and a better deal for those who feel let down
:01:16. > :01:21.And how does any of that square with her intention of securing
:01:22. > :01:24.the middle ground of British politics?
:01:25. > :01:27.She has two weak opponents, the Labour Party and Ukip
:01:28. > :01:30.in trouble, she seems to want to take over both.
:01:31. > :01:33.I thought it was a very politically astute performance from Theresa May
:01:34. > :01:40.Almost everyone in the UK, like in many parts of the world,
:01:41. > :01:48.It seems to me it is a meaningless term, increasingly meaningless
:01:49. > :01:50.in the fractious, factualised politics we have everywhere,
:01:51. > :02:01.But what she did cleverly, she was known as a Remain figure,
:02:02. > :02:04.albeit a reluctant Remainer, in the referendum campaign.
:02:05. > :02:07.She had to convince her party that she would deliver Brexit,
:02:08. > :02:15.They were ecstatic with excitement at her Brexit promises.
:02:16. > :02:20.And also try to frame a wider message about her politics.
:02:21. > :02:23.She talked in a way that Tony Blair and Gordon Brown never did
:02:24. > :02:31.But Brexit looms, and talking to people in that conference over
:02:32. > :02:36.the last few days, and others, it is clear to me that it will be
:02:37. > :02:39.I think the Chancellor, Philip Hammond, is extremely worried
:02:40. > :02:47.about when she triggers Article 50, what that will do to the pound.
:02:48. > :02:53.Turbulence and fluctuations are the kind of words she is using.
:02:54. > :02:58.She gave one opening speech at the Conference where she stated,
:02:59. > :03:01.frankly, the obvious on Brexit, and the pound fell.
:03:02. > :03:04.Some people think that Britain dropped from being the fifth biggest
:03:05. > :03:12.economy to the sixth during the course of that speech.
:03:13. > :03:15.And there was nothing revelatory or alarming.
:03:16. > :03:17.And this big reform bill she announced was a logistic
:03:18. > :03:20.inevitability, which she cleverly turned into a sign
:03:21. > :03:23.That was the easy bit, and it is already difficult,
:03:24. > :03:28.In terms of political choreography, it was brilliant and got
:03:29. > :03:38.There was one other stand-out bit for many people in the week,
:03:39. > :03:41.Marc, which was the Home Secretary, Amber Rudd, saying that foreign
:03:42. > :03:44.firms will have to tell us who their foreign workers are.
:03:45. > :03:48.Apparently at the LSE some academics have been told that
:03:49. > :03:51.if you were foreign-born, you cannot work advising
:03:52. > :04:02.How do you think that will go down in the rest of Europe and elsewhere?
:04:03. > :04:07.If Theresa May goes on and on to say she is not racist or xenophobic,
:04:08. > :04:10.Everyone knows it is not right that the foreigners are taking
:04:11. > :04:12.British jobs, they take them because the British
:04:13. > :04:20.So by attacking and creating a climate of xenophobia and racism
:04:21. > :04:23.she antagonises the people she needs to get a clean Brexit,
:04:24. > :04:51.Merkel and Hollande this week said that Britain will be harshly
:04:52. > :04:55.And it puts people who have lived here a long time,
:04:56. > :04:58.Europeans like me, into real discomfort to live in a country
:04:59. > :05:01.which was known for fair play, courtesy and tolerance,
:05:02. > :05:04.which is now becoming a nasty country with the nasty party back.
:05:05. > :05:07.The nasty party is creating a really nasty atmosphere across the country,
:05:08. > :05:09.rising racist and xenophobic attacks across the country,
:05:10. > :05:14.And some figures in the Labour Party say that it is perfectly reasonable
:05:15. > :05:18.Actually, it is not natural to be worried about immigration and blame
:05:19. > :05:21.immigration and migrants for all sorts of problems.
:05:22. > :05:23.Most countries are worried, the Greeks and the Germans are,
:05:24. > :05:27.but it is the role of responsible parties like the Conservative Party
:05:28. > :05:30.and the Labour Party and some other parties to talk responsibly.
:05:31. > :05:43.This has been going on for ten years, every time they talk high
:05:44. > :05:46.on immigration, they just move the tone a few notches up.
:05:47. > :05:57.Do we need to wear armbands or badges saying we are migrant
:05:58. > :06:04.The comments of Amber Rudd are a licence for really racist
:06:05. > :06:24.Steve sees this as within the narrow frames of what she has to do
:06:25. > :06:27.within her party, good politics, but maybe not good statesmanship?
:06:28. > :06:30.It gets her through the night, in a way.
:06:31. > :06:35.I think it was very clever - she is the new face,
:06:36. > :06:40.she has an appeal to the shires, she seems reasonable.
:06:41. > :06:44.She is playing the Sanders/Trump card, populism on the spending -
:06:45. > :06:49.we will now spend on social programmes again, which gets
:06:50. > :06:52.a different swathe of the Labour and the Conservative voters.
:06:53. > :06:58.It might buy her some time with the choppy Brexit waters.
:06:59. > :07:02.But I don't think they have any idea how they will get through Brexit.
:07:03. > :07:07.It is a mess, all the incentives for Europe are to be harsh and say
:07:08. > :07:10.no, otherwise the European project falls apart if Britain gets
:07:11. > :07:13.Britain needs Europe much more than Europe needs Britain.
:07:14. > :07:21.3% of EU GDP is exported to Britain, 12% of UK GDP is exported to Europe.
:07:22. > :07:24.This myth that you can easily walk away with what you want
:07:25. > :07:28.without having to give something back is just not true.
:07:29. > :07:33.Once the negotiation starts, Europe will have most of the cards,
:07:34. > :07:39.but at the moment I think the UK Government thinks it will.
:07:40. > :07:44.Some people were saying that the pound will
:07:45. > :07:52.To make one point on immigration, one of the problems she has,
:07:53. > :07:56.and people like the Home Secretary, Amber Rudd, I think she is quite
:07:57. > :08:02.But the referendum happened, and they can't ignore it.
:08:03. > :08:05.There is no doubt that immigration was one of the issues
:08:06. > :08:10.I think Theresa May is not that devious a figure,
:08:11. > :08:12.although she played some clever games last week,
:08:13. > :08:25.that she has to deliver the referendum, there is no doubt
:08:26. > :08:27.that one of the issues was immigration.
:08:28. > :08:29.If that means we are out of the single market,
:08:30. > :08:34.What I find interesting, of course, immigration means out of the single
:08:35. > :08:37.market, out of the single market means the pound and customs problems
:08:38. > :08:43.The lack of preparation of the British Government is crass.
:08:44. > :08:46.The Foreign Secretary has said, oh, I will help Turkey
:08:47. > :08:51.What leverage would he have to help Turkey?
:08:52. > :09:01.Do they provoke xenophobic acts against the British working
:09:02. > :09:09.Jaguar's sales are down, apparently, in Europe,
:09:10. > :09:13.because nobody wants to buy British cars anymore.
:09:14. > :09:15.It is not xenophobia, that is a reasonable economic
:09:16. > :09:20.I think there will be that pulling apart.
:09:21. > :09:23.From my point of view, I am an American living in this
:09:24. > :09:26.country, I have lived here for a long time.
:09:27. > :09:29.I like the sense of Britain as an open country where I believe
:09:30. > :09:31.that migration has been beneficial to the economy.
:09:32. > :09:40.There is another wider point, which is internal.
:09:41. > :09:43.For now, her speech was very astute and captured not the centre ground,
:09:44. > :09:49.And also an economic policy, thinking already
:09:50. > :10:01.Those MPs that created a lot of trouble for David Cameron
:10:02. > :10:03.when he tried to be a compassionate Conservative, what do
:10:04. > :10:07.Mrs May is a great supporter of taxation, she says
:10:08. > :10:16.The state having a role, what will they say?
:10:17. > :10:21.When they start to realise what it means, they will rebel.
:10:22. > :10:24.The Conservative Party is the most undisciplined and rebellious party
:10:25. > :10:30.This programme would be a slightly poorer place if we did not allow
:10:31. > :10:32.people who are not British citizens to take part!
:10:33. > :10:48.The person in line to become the United Nations' next
:10:49. > :10:50.Secretary-General is the former Portuguese Prime Minister
:10:51. > :10:56.And how can the United Nations, or any organisation,
:10:57. > :10:58.rise to the 21st century challenges of Syria,
:10:59. > :11:05.He is a socialist, Catholic, a former Prime Minister of Portugal,
:11:06. > :11:11.he was the Prime Minister who took Portugal to the single currency.
:11:12. > :11:15.For ten years he was the UN High Commissioner for refugees.
:11:16. > :11:18.Where he has done a good job, according to voluntary
:11:19. > :11:21.organisations, all the NGOs, in making the case for
:11:22. > :11:31.He is his own man, he will not be bossed by anyone.
:11:32. > :11:35.I think he would be a tremendous UN Secretary-General.
:11:36. > :11:41.It is a tremendous job, but what a basket of problems.
:11:42. > :11:46.Aleppo, Syria, the UN talking about perhaps escorting Al-Qaeda
:11:47. > :11:57.We have to think about what is the job of the UN Secretary-General.
:11:58. > :12:00.It is not God, it does not have power.
:12:01. > :12:07.But it will have the ability to agenda-set problems,
:12:08. > :12:10.it will have the ability to nudge countries to address certain issues.
:12:11. > :12:13.Guterres has previously told the Americans they have to do more
:12:14. > :12:18.about refugees, to support some countries to acquire independence.
:12:19. > :12:26.He is the outspoken statesman that the UN needs.
:12:27. > :12:28.Somebody who campaigned for refugees, human rights,
:12:29. > :12:36.I think he has the ability and the profile to put the UN again
:12:37. > :12:41.in the centre stage as an important actor in the world stage.
:12:42. > :12:44.It is then up to the big powers of the Security Council
:12:45. > :12:47.to do their jobs and to be less obstructive.
:12:48. > :12:51.But I think he will do as much as he can to point them
:12:52. > :12:55.Could he get the Americans and the Russians to kiss and make up
:12:56. > :12:58.after the terrible things going on, including the allegations of hacking
:12:59. > :13:08.This is the fundamental structural problem of the UN building
:13:09. > :13:17.Unless the Security Council members really want to do business together,
:13:18. > :13:21.the UN obviously can't find out a way to make them do it.
:13:22. > :13:24.In the early Clinton era, when Russia seemed like it wanted
:13:25. > :13:27.to join the world system in a constructive way, and China,
:13:28. > :13:29.you could see the UN began to get momentum.
:13:30. > :13:32.But Iraq, terrorism and everything else has made this all
:13:33. > :13:42.I don't see anything for Putin to give up his current spoiler role.
:13:43. > :13:46.He will not be a big power in the old Soviet Union sense,
:13:47. > :13:49.but he is riding high at home because it looks like he is doing
:13:50. > :13:54.He gets advantage by racking up elections in Ukraine
:13:55. > :14:02.I would say that the choice the Americans make in a month
:14:03. > :14:04.is probably more important for where the world order gains
:14:05. > :14:09.or loses than the selection of the UN Secretary-General.
:14:10. > :14:12.One hopes it will come out, I hope, with Hillary Clinton,
:14:13. > :14:14.who believes in international institutions, development
:14:15. > :14:19.Trump is expressing this Zeitgeist where we retreat into ourselves,
:14:20. > :14:40.Donald Trump is not the only one saying that international
:14:41. > :14:44.institutions are suspect, the EU, the UN, the World Bank, the IMF are
:14:45. > :14:48.all going through difficult times, as is globalisation.
:14:49. > :14:54.The problem of the UN, it is a 1945 Cold War institution.
:14:55. > :15:00.The Security Council is blocking everything.
:15:01. > :15:09.Since then sometimes Europe is at a disadvantage.
:15:10. > :15:12.The solution is not there for Syria.
:15:13. > :15:16.The solution for Syria is the new American administration.
:15:17. > :15:22.The weak point of Putin is the economy, the Russian economy is
:15:23. > :15:30.The only thing outside of the UN is for Europe to
:15:31. > :15:43.Clearly the power lies in the presidential
:15:44. > :15:49.election in the United States, not the UN.
:15:50. > :15:53.That agenda setting without power is part of the mix at the moment.
:15:54. > :16:01.The US under Obama found no way through in Syria.
:16:02. > :16:04.He sounds great, let's hope he can make some kind of
:16:05. > :16:08.contribution in an otherwise nightmarish situation.
:16:09. > :16:10.Steve has brilliantly linked this into the
:16:11. > :16:18.How far do his latest observations about women change the US
:16:19. > :16:21.presidential campaign when similar comments in the past seem
:16:22. > :16:29.In some cases he has been Teflon Trump, whatever your taste, people
:16:30. > :16:33.who like him like him, people who don't like him don't like him.
:16:34. > :16:36.Have I summed up the American presidential election? Very good.
:16:37. > :16:39.But there are swing voters, people who have not made up their minds,
:16:40. > :16:41.unbelievably, somehow, at this late stage.
:16:42. > :16:44.It is not just the sexism, it is the crassness of the
:16:45. > :16:49.I can do anything I want with them because I'm a star,
:16:50. > :16:52.talking about grabbing women in their private parts
:16:53. > :17:01.A Trump supporter on the radio said, we knew he was a womaniser,
:17:02. > :17:04.it is ten years ago, do we care?
:17:05. > :17:14.One of the interesting things about this campaign
:17:15. > :17:20.we can do it, but temperament often gets through to viewers on
:17:21. > :17:23.television, which is how many of us make up our minds.
:17:24. > :17:26.The last debate which Hillary and Trump did, I think,
:17:27. > :17:30.establish that he did not have much to say,
:17:31. > :17:33.he is not a reader, he is not one for policies.
:17:34. > :17:41.She kept bothering him with obvious softballs that he could not
:17:42. > :17:46.Whether this next debate on Sunday, where it is a town hall
:17:47. > :17:49.meeting and he has to talk to voters asking strange questions,
:17:50. > :17:57.it requires a kind of maturity and gravitas, that is what has worked in
:17:58. > :18:01.the past, a certain ability to connect.
:18:02. > :18:03.You have to be able to take blows and keep moving.
:18:04. > :18:06.I think it favours her rather than him.
:18:07. > :18:08.He says he will attack about Bill Clinton
:18:09. > :18:10.and the sex life and how Hillary has been behind
:18:11. > :18:16.I think people will be pretty sick of it.
:18:17. > :18:24.This antiestablishment, anti-elite feeling...
:18:25. > :18:28.He said what he truly believes and feels, he is one like us.
:18:29. > :18:32.And plenty of people will see themselves in Donald Trump,
:18:33. > :18:38.Let's hope that some of those floating voters were truly
:18:39. > :18:41.appalled by these comments, so that he was not fit for the office.
:18:42. > :18:47.But it is probably just polarising opinion.
:18:48. > :18:49.Those that are with him applaud him,
:18:50. > :18:53.those against him were disgusted.
:18:54. > :18:55.He said "These comments do not reflect who I am."
:18:56. > :19:03.I agree with what everyone has said, but the problem is that we have been
:19:04. > :19:06.completely surprised by the result of Brexit,
:19:07. > :19:23.This presidential election is still very open.
:19:24. > :19:25.To his supporters, it will not make any difference.
:19:26. > :19:28.Let's hope it will make a difference on the floating voters.
:19:29. > :19:31.We need a strong president at a time of a
:19:32. > :19:33.particularly difficult situation and lots of problems.
:19:34. > :19:36.It would not be a surprise if he were to poll in reality better
:19:37. > :19:40.Because the opinion polls are ridiculed in every country.
:19:41. > :19:43.The opinion polls in France are not even taken seriously.
:19:44. > :19:52.They have shown their ineffectiveness in every election,
:19:53. > :19:58.The very voters Mr Trump might appeal to,
:19:59. > :19:59.particularly those thinking of leaning towards,
:20:00. > :20:02.might not want to say that to a stranger?
:20:03. > :20:07.I have never yet met a Frenchman who would vote for her,
:20:08. > :20:17.If any serious Cabinet member who was 59 years old when he said
:20:18. > :20:20.it, not a 14-year-old boy, 59 years old,
:20:21. > :20:23.not that it would be right, a 14-year-old boy
:20:24. > :20:29.saying it, actually, but it would be the end.
:20:30. > :20:35.Like you, I would not be surprised if anything happens now
:20:36. > :20:39.after the recent months in terms of elections.
:20:40. > :20:43.But I can't see at the very least how this helps him.
:20:44. > :20:46.You would have thought that amongst floating voters,
:20:47. > :20:52.perhaps amongst his core support, good old Donald,
:20:53. > :20:56.But surely those floating voters who have not come
:20:57. > :21:04.this is exactly what we are looking for?
:21:05. > :21:07.I can't see the mental process of a floating voter which turns
:21:08. > :21:09.to him on the basis of anything that has
:21:10. > :21:11.happened since that first televised debate.
:21:12. > :21:14.In other words, in a close race it seems that in the last
:21:15. > :21:18.couple of weeks the momentum, as far as it could be measured,
:21:19. > :21:21.and this will contribute to it.
:21:22. > :21:24.But I would say nothing surprises me any more.
:21:25. > :21:27.I am interested in the constitutional mechanics.
:21:28. > :21:30.We have seen the House Speaker, and the most
:21:31. > :21:37.powerful Republican in the country, basically distancing himself,
:21:38. > :21:40.disinviting Mr Trump from something this weekend.
:21:41. > :21:42.We have seen another Republican from the west of the
:21:43. > :21:53.Do you think that the party would like to somehow get rid
:21:54. > :21:57.Is there any mechanism for that happening,
:21:58. > :22:02.He can quit, but I can't and so what happens at this
:22:03. > :22:07.The Republican National Committee has to meet and find a
:22:08. > :22:11.replacement candidate, but whether that means that it is a state
:22:12. > :22:14.process to get on a ballot, whether it means you can automatically
:22:15. > :22:19.parachute in any Republican, I don't think so.
:22:20. > :22:23.I don't think they want to get rid of him. They have made their
:22:24. > :22:26.bed, they have done that with him since the beginning. He has done
:22:27. > :22:30.unbelievable, outrageous things for a huge amount of time. He has said
:22:31. > :22:33.things no American politician has ever got away with saying. He is
:22:34. > :22:37.racist, he says a judge born in this country is Mexican because he is
:22:38. > :22:39.against him in a court case, he called for
:22:40. > :22:41.the assassination of Hillary Clinton.
:22:42. > :22:44.But the Republicans have made their peace and will continue
:22:45. > :22:47.to. Some people might say it is terrible, but they will not pull
:22:48. > :22:54.Aside from this crass thing, we should not forget that Trump is also
:22:55. > :23:01.the result of this anger of the impoverished middle class after the
:23:02. > :23:04.financial crisis, globalisation, with the jobs are leaving. We have
:23:05. > :23:15.Trump is a result of the Tea Party movement
:23:16. > :23:19.and a big shift to the right of the party. The big line-up of Republican
:23:20. > :23:23.candidates, one slightly more to the left of Trump than the other. They
:23:24. > :23:26.are extremely right-wing. He is one-of-a-kind, but not so terribly
:23:27. > :23:36.He is responsive to a certain climate created by
:23:37. > :23:41.globalisation and the fear of it, the fear of foreigners...
:23:42. > :23:49.It is all part of a pattern, post-2008.
:23:50. > :23:53.We had to take into account that something had to be done...
:23:54. > :23:57.That Hillary Clinton is seen as the inside
:23:58. > :24:01.candidate, 25 years in Washington or whatever. Every single thing that
:24:02. > :24:05.would in the past be seen as a plus, experience, I have done this
:24:06. > :24:08.job and that, it is now a big negative to some people.
:24:09. > :24:10.Like with Brexit, all the former and existing
:24:11. > :24:16.Prime Ministers backed Brexit, they were thinking of having a rally
:24:17. > :24:19.with all of them, which in 1975 when there was a European referendum
:24:20. > :24:25.would have helped the pro-case, but they decided to scrap it because
:24:26. > :24:28.they thought it would be so counter-productive, because they
:24:29. > :24:37.As long as politics is juxtaposed between
:24:38. > :24:39.insiders and outsiders, it is in a very dangerous place.
:24:40. > :24:46.We are moving towards an anti-democratic culture,
:24:47. > :24:50.where to be seen to be on the outside is seen as an asset, the
:24:51. > :24:54.Where politicians fight each other, like
:24:55. > :24:58.they did in the European Parliament, two Ukip MEPs, that is the type of
:24:59. > :25:03.anti-elite politics that we will get if this continues.
:25:04. > :25:06.We have about 30 seconds left. You do a one-man
:25:07. > :25:10.comedy show, I don't think you can compete, to be quite honest, with
:25:11. > :25:16.You just convey we are literally all at it, that is enough to
:25:17. > :25:19.keep you in the theatre for eight hours!
:25:20. > :25:26.On that happy note I would like to thank the guests and the three
:25:27. > :25:31.You can comment on the programme on Twitter and engage
:25:32. > :25:35.We are back next week at the same time.