:00:23. > :00:25.Hello and welcome to Dateline London.
:00:26. > :00:27.The new Cold War between Russia and the West
:00:28. > :00:29.against the background of more bloodshed in Syria.
:00:30. > :00:34.And has Brexit become what one MP described as a "Dog's Brexit"?
:00:35. > :00:36.A hugely costly mess, because those who most strongly
:00:37. > :00:40.advocate it have not figured out how to make it work?
:00:41. > :00:43.Alexander Nekrasov who is a Russian journalist
:00:44. > :00:49.Abdel Bari Atwan who writes on Arab affairs and
:00:50. > :00:55.Ned Temko who is a political commentator.
:00:56. > :01:03.Good to see you all. Relations between Russia and the United
:01:04. > :01:05.States, between Russia and western Europe at at a low ebb.
:01:06. > :01:08.Each blames the other for the mess in Syria.
:01:09. > :01:09.Britain's foreign secretary called for demonstrations
:01:10. > :01:12.outside the Russian embassy, and from the Baltic to Ukraine there
:01:13. > :01:18.Is this a new Cold War, and can relations be mended?
:01:19. > :01:24.They are not good, the relations. Do you see it as a new Cold War?
:01:25. > :01:31.Depends on how you look at the Cold War. For some in at the Cold War
:01:32. > :01:37.never ended. If it would have been over, Nato would have been
:01:38. > :01:42.disbanded. Not only did it stayed on it started to move eastwards in an
:01:43. > :01:48.aggressive way. We have Nato surrounding Russia. The one thing
:01:49. > :01:53.that is very different between the old Cold War and the new Cold War,
:01:54. > :01:59.which is gradually turning into hot war in some areas, is there was a
:02:00. > :02:07.sense of certainty in the old Cold War. We had two camps opposed to
:02:08. > :02:12.each other. They knew perfectly well that mutual destruction --
:02:13. > :02:19.destruction was the game if something happened. It was fighting
:02:20. > :02:24.on the fringes mostly and everybody knew what was going to happen. Now,
:02:25. > :02:30.we have entered the age of uncertainty. Nobody knows what is
:02:31. > :02:35.going to happen. Nobody knows how a conflict might develop like in Syria
:02:36. > :02:42.or war in Iraq. How it can develop into a regional war or potentially a
:02:43. > :02:49.global war. The difference is, for example, in Russia they don't know
:02:50. > :02:55.whom to talk to in America and who runs the show in America. We don't
:02:56. > :03:00.know. One group seems to be supporting one side, for example in
:03:01. > :03:07.Syria will stop the other side -- group seems to be supporting other
:03:08. > :03:10.side. Alec Obama seems to be detached from politics. This is the
:03:11. > :03:16.most dangerous thing you can have in the nuclear world.
:03:17. > :03:21.You cover Brussels, how does it seem that? The Balkans and Sweden is
:03:22. > :03:29.concerned about this. They would be an accurate that Nato
:03:30. > :03:34.upped its activity on Russia's borders in response to Russia's
:03:35. > :03:46.incursions into Ukraine. That is seen as a response. Tensions between
:03:47. > :03:51.Brussels have never been so bad. Nato in Russia and the US and
:03:52. > :03:53.Russia. We have to keep in my bid is a debate that is going to pick up
:03:54. > :03:58.this week about EU sanctions on Russia. EU foreign ministers will
:03:59. > :04:05.meet in Luxembourg on Monday and there is a summit of EU leaders.
:04:06. > :04:08.Europe's relationship with Russia will be discussed. Within Europe
:04:09. > :04:11.that are different views. Certain countries would like to roll back
:04:12. > :04:19.from Russian sanctions. They are feeling the heat. Other countries,
:04:20. > :04:24.mainly Balkans and Britain want to continue. That is a debate about
:04:25. > :04:30.whether there should be new sanctions against Russia. It looks
:04:31. > :04:33.like that won't happen. The EU will look at sanctions against City and
:04:34. > :04:40.individuals. Where little Britain on this? Boris Johnson called for
:04:41. > :04:45.demonstrations outside the country with whom we are not actually in
:04:46. > :04:49.conflict was odd. How surprising that Boris Johnson should say
:04:50. > :04:53.something odd! I wouldn't put much stock in what Boris should say about
:04:54. > :05:01.demonstrations. He is only the Foreign Secretary! Britain is
:05:02. > :05:04.confused at present as it is about just about everything because the
:05:05. > :05:08.government is in the process of trying to work its way out and
:05:09. > :05:14.everything is subsumed in Brexit. What I would say as an American and
:05:15. > :05:24.someone who lived and worked in Moscow for three years in the early
:05:25. > :05:29.1980s ended the -- under the stagnation. The beginning of the end
:05:30. > :05:34.of the Soviet Union. I don't think we're going back to a full-scale
:05:35. > :05:39.Cold War. Too much has changed. You mentioned me to the issue at
:05:40. > :05:42.destruction as a nuclear doctrine. One change is those sorts of
:05:43. > :05:51.doctrines will be applied to hacking and counter hacking into information
:05:52. > :05:56.stealing, to try and influence the American election as seems the case
:05:57. > :06:04.with Russia. There are other things. I agree with Alexander that we have,
:06:05. > :06:09.at least for the first stable future, we need to give up on the
:06:10. > :06:12.notion many of us had there might be post-soviet union, the prospects
:06:13. > :06:18.some new form of cooperative relationship between Russia and the
:06:19. > :06:23.United States. I want to come on to Syria in the second. Isn't part of
:06:24. > :06:29.it the Cold War ended with the west thinking, we have won. Russia
:06:30. > :06:36.thinking we have lost and are surrounded. It didn't and with a
:06:37. > :06:46.conference in Versailles. -- did not end. It has been a ad hoc, Nato is
:06:47. > :06:50.going to move into the east. Russian politics has been in Flex. We go
:06:51. > :06:58.from Gorbachev to Boris Yeltsin, to Putin. There are difficult things
:06:59. > :07:04.swirling around. I think it is in the long-term interests in both
:07:05. > :07:11.these countries, assuming that Hillary Clinton is president, to
:07:12. > :07:16.work out some sort of motive. Syria is just one of those places outside
:07:17. > :07:21.powers have just been fiddling while more and more cities are killed.
:07:22. > :07:26.Aleppo is the part we are thinking about. Where are we on that? Where
:07:27. > :07:28.do you see this superpower relationship affecting that?
:07:29. > :07:36.When they heard Boris Johnson calling for the a demonstration, I
:07:37. > :07:43.thought is he the Foreign Minister or Colonel Gaddafi? When it comes to
:07:44. > :07:50.saving, he said Britain is looking at the military option on Syria.
:07:51. > :08:02.They are coordinating with other members of Nato. He was slapped down
:08:03. > :08:10.by Theresa May. She is in charge. It seems Boris Johnson, the United
:08:11. > :08:15.States and Russia are banging the drums of war. The situation in Syria
:08:16. > :08:25.is tense. We are waiting for the trigger. Plenty of warplanes. A lot
:08:26. > :08:32.of exchange of threats. We heard a spokesman of the Russian foreign
:08:33. > :08:36.ministry saying we are going to respond to any American attacks
:08:37. > :08:44.against civilian targets. Syrian Army. It seems it is not a Cold War,
:08:45. > :08:58.it is a hot war. Now, today, there is a meeting between Sergey Lavrov
:08:59. > :09:06.and John Kerry. They are looking how to prevent... Nothing will happen in
:09:07. > :09:11.Switzerland. There is no president in Washington technically speaking.
:09:12. > :09:14.We are waiting for a new leader to emerge. Until that election nothing
:09:15. > :09:23.will happen. We are missing one big point. Syria is important that it is
:09:24. > :09:27.Ukraine you need to look at. In Ukraine, from the Russian point of
:09:28. > :09:34.view, the Americans have crossed the red line. That is it. Doing what?
:09:35. > :09:44.From the outside point of view the Russians have annexed Crimea.
:09:45. > :09:51.Ukraine is a much bigger threat. If a nuclear war happens between Russia
:09:52. > :09:55.and God forbid, America, it be over Ukraine not because of Syria. That
:09:56. > :10:01.is the main point people are missing. In the Ukraine, the 20
:10:02. > :10:08.million ethnic Russians, a bit less now, a lot of than left, this is the
:10:09. > :10:12.point where Russia will not forgive America and Russia will not allow
:10:13. > :10:17.America to stay there. This is the crucial point. Syria is just a
:10:18. > :10:25.sideshow in this particular instance. What do you mean America
:10:26. > :10:29.staying there? The Ukraine crisis started because Ukraine was about to
:10:30. > :10:34.sign an agreement with European Union and they pulled out at the
:10:35. > :10:39.last minute. That is what happened. That happened in November. The arms
:10:40. > :10:47.coup happened after. It happened after. The regime was overthrown ie
:10:48. > :10:55.an armed coup. After they pulled out of the EU agreement. The agreement
:10:56. > :11:02.with the EU had nothing to do with it. Was a confrontation now could
:11:03. > :11:09.happen in Syria. It is the hottest point now. You have Russian,
:11:10. > :11:17.American... Syria is just another aspect of
:11:18. > :11:21.this. We think most soul will be affected in the next few weeks. That
:11:22. > :11:25.is what the Americans are focusing on. We might see that being their
:11:26. > :11:29.focus and Aleppo being left for the moment.
:11:30. > :11:31.That is lots of dangerous spot and that is the key, the wedding thing.
:11:32. > :11:34.The advertising for a British favourite spread called Marmite says
:11:35. > :11:38.The same could be said of Brexit, which this week is being blamed
:11:39. > :11:41.for the rising cost of foods such as Marmite and for Parliament
:11:42. > :11:44.being refused a real say in the most important political decision
:11:45. > :12:00.You don't speak for the European Union but you can reflect their
:12:01. > :12:03.views. Theresa May's speech at the conference was the most defining
:12:04. > :12:08.moment of the post Brexit process. She was very clear. She mentioned
:12:09. > :12:12.about not having coming under the European Court of Justice and taking
:12:13. > :12:16.back control of immigration. She's not going to go for single market
:12:17. > :12:20.access. There has been a definite hardening opposition from the
:12:21. > :12:23.European side. The head of the European Council said the only
:12:24. > :12:29.option is a hard Brexit. Worryingly for those in Britain want to stay as
:12:30. > :12:34.close as possible to Europe, we have seen our hardening from Angela
:12:35. > :12:39.Merkel. She has been one of the country's wanting to keep Britain
:12:40. > :12:44.close. She spoke to a powerful business leaders last week who have
:12:45. > :12:50.concerns over exports. The message was, I see your concerns but we have
:12:51. > :12:54.bigger issues. We need to preserve the single market and keep the
:12:55. > :12:59.European Union together. I spoke to the former EU president
:13:00. > :13:06.this week and he said that you have to understand this is not a top
:13:07. > :13:09.priority for the French government, the German government and he went
:13:10. > :13:14.through the government. It may be your big deal but it isn't ours. It
:13:15. > :13:20.will be terrible. He suggested it will be difficult. That was one
:13:21. > :13:28.view. It is a view I share. It is a mess. It need not be cataclysmic
:13:29. > :13:33.that we are already seeing problems with Marmite. Luckily, I hate
:13:34. > :13:40.Marmite! Another Cold War! Here we go. There is a lot of economic
:13:41. > :13:46.damage that will be done by Brexit. That is no way around it. I was
:13:47. > :13:50.talking to a senior or civil servant who said that in practical terms
:13:51. > :13:54.there is no soft Brexit option. There is take for example Theresa
:13:55. > :14:02.May yesterday apparently talked to the head of Nissan and reassured him
:14:03. > :14:07.that post Brexit there will be unfettered, unchanged, unamended
:14:08. > :14:13.access to the Central market. Very important. Here is the problem.
:14:14. > :14:16.Let's say that happens. The only way for that to happen is some sort of
:14:17. > :14:21.sectorial agreement with the single market. I can guarantee you, it
:14:22. > :14:28.isn't about punishing Britain, you can't have access to the single
:14:29. > :14:36.market in cars without being subject to European court of justice rulings
:14:37. > :14:39.on how market work. -- how that market works. It is coming home to
:14:40. > :14:50.roost the way this referendum campaign was run was on a, promises
:14:51. > :14:54.that were undeliverable, and B, no real understanding because the lead
:14:55. > :14:59.campaigners didn't expect to win. No understanding and how it would work.
:15:00. > :15:02.What has struck me is Parliament attempting to reassert itself. We
:15:03. > :15:07.are governed by Queen and Parliament. It is clear what that is
:15:08. > :15:10.supposed to mean except we have got the will of the British people
:15:11. > :15:20.absolutely clear we want to get out of the EU. But it isn't. It isn't
:15:21. > :15:25.clear. What is not clear is what that will look like stock is then a
:15:26. > :15:30.mandate for leaving the single market? That is the question MPs
:15:31. > :15:39.have been asking. People are like the MPs in order to
:15:40. > :15:42.represent them. I am surprised, Theresa May doesn't want any
:15:43. > :15:51.enforced the parliament this kind of issue. Parliament is anti-Brexit. It
:15:52. > :15:57.is simple. The whole problem, just like the Cold War, we have
:15:58. > :16:04.uncertainty and confusion about the plans that Theresa May have. Half
:16:05. > :16:10.her Cabinet and against Brexit, 90% of parliament against Brexit. The
:16:11. > :16:16.problem is Theresa May, with this uncertainty, can destroy the whole
:16:17. > :16:22.presence of Brexit. That process. She has to invoke Article 50. She
:16:23. > :16:27.can't continue to say, I am going to invoke it. She has to do it now.
:16:28. > :16:37.Then we work hard because we are pledged to the wall.
:16:38. > :16:42.She would do it in the New Year. 1 million march to London in favour
:16:43. > :16:48.of Brexit has to take place. Boris Johnson asked for a demonstration
:16:49. > :16:55.and now you. People want this decision of theirs
:16:56. > :17:02.to be carried out. What is the detail. That is the point.
:17:03. > :17:09.The referendum has supremacy. No, it doesn't!
:17:10. > :17:13.Whichever way you look at it, Theresa May is the Prime Minister
:17:14. > :17:17.and has huge power to shape the future of Britain for centuries to
:17:18. > :17:22.come. That is the reality. The same way as the other leaders have power
:17:23. > :17:24.and the other side. There is an interesting constitutional argument
:17:25. > :17:30.about how much oversight she should have. I think she should be
:17:31. > :17:35.scrutinised. I do agree her problem is most of the MPs are remainders.
:17:36. > :17:40.They're not going to go against their voters either and say, let's
:17:41. > :17:49.not leave the European Union. They want greater scrutiny. It shows the
:17:50. > :17:56.limitations of a referendum. One reason you have representative
:17:57. > :18:00.democracy is you don't ask the British people on every big
:18:01. > :18:05.decision. You basically say, this is what we're going to do as a
:18:06. > :18:09.government. David Cameron's fear was if they said they were going to stay
:18:10. > :18:14.in European Union they would lose a lot of seats to Ukip.
:18:15. > :18:18.It is difficult to overturn several hundred years of British history in
:18:19. > :18:27.which Parliament scrutinises the executive. We will see. This is a
:18:28. > :18:34.difficult... The Brexiteers are talking about taking over
:18:35. > :18:39.sovereignty. We are talking about a situation
:18:40. > :18:44.that if Britain needs Europe it is going to be disastrous. Ideye all of
:18:45. > :18:50.you to find in London goods made in Europe, they are all made in China,
:18:51. > :18:57.Poland. There are a lot of cars outside made
:18:58. > :19:02.in Germany. We don't buy Chinese wine.
:19:03. > :19:13.Europe is not that big any more in the world. That is the point. All
:19:14. > :19:16.this fear... It is simple as that. There are
:19:17. > :19:27.other markets outside it can deal with.
:19:28. > :19:30.How can you do that? The painful period has to be there
:19:31. > :19:39.when you are getting out of the single market.
:19:40. > :19:44.When the pound is at its lowest level for 30 years, when it is going
:19:45. > :19:51.to go down and down again, when the property market is stagnant, when
:19:52. > :19:55.Britain has to renegotiate all the agreements with every country if
:19:56. > :20:04.they are going to leave European Union. What are you talking about?
:20:05. > :20:09.The fact we hear this mantra that Britain has the fifth largest
:20:10. > :20:13.economy in the world kind of skates over the fact that a significant
:20:14. > :20:18.part of GDP comes from services. A significant part of that comes from
:20:19. > :20:22.financial services which are dependent on par sporting and access
:20:23. > :20:26.to the single market. The City of London are very worried. There is a
:20:27. > :20:32.political point to be made about the City. Now look what has happened
:20:33. > :20:38.after they kept close to the Conservative Party.
:20:39. > :20:44.We had the pound exchange for $1 and nothing happened. Exports grew. You
:20:45. > :20:49.must not make it big deal out of a temporary problem. It is not a
:20:50. > :21:00.temporary problem if the out of the single market. There are two things.
:21:01. > :21:05.Both of them are going to be under scrutiny. If they lose that it will
:21:06. > :21:08.be a long-term consequence is that now we have solved the problem of
:21:09. > :21:19.Brexit and the Cold War, should Bob Dylan have had the Nobel Prize for
:21:20. > :21:23.literature? He should. It is a must. He is siding with the oppressed
:21:24. > :21:33.people. He is against the American establishment. He is loved by
:21:34. > :21:41.millions all over. Why not? This is how we're going to solve the Middle
:21:42. > :21:51.east problem. A nice little gee-whiz singer is now a Palestinian war
:21:52. > :21:57.hero. He is anti-war. You would have given him the Nobel Prize. I am on
:21:58. > :22:03.the side of no, I don't think so. He is no Seamus Heaney. A lot of the
:22:04. > :22:09.writers, brilliant novelists who are working away, toiling away, I think
:22:10. > :22:15.I saw 11 Welsh making a point and I'm not trying to be a jest. Most
:22:16. > :22:24.people under 40 know a couple of songs but just about. It is that
:22:25. > :22:33.nostalgia. I don't know if that really merits a Nobel Prize in
:22:34. > :22:39.literature. What do you think is mag this is a great honour. Seamus
:22:40. > :22:43.Heaney, we would all agree, a great poet. Do you think Bob Dylan should
:22:44. > :22:49.have had the Nobel Prize for literature? It depends how you look
:22:50. > :22:58.at the prize. If you are doing it from a Brit of fun, why not? A Park
:22:59. > :23:01.might be a contender next year. Once they published those lyrics of his
:23:02. > :23:05.and you say to the people, they have read those lyrics. I don't think a
:23:06. > :23:13.lot of people will agree he should have had the prize. They are
:23:14. > :23:21.childish, naive, leftists. I am sorry. Leftist in a bad way!
:23:22. > :23:33.Unbelievable. They gave it a Harold Pinter which is a classical poet.
:23:34. > :23:43.Letters have something different. You have all the books written...
:23:44. > :23:51.I read about novelists. There is nothing wrong with novels but you
:23:52. > :24:00.don't sing along to them. He is a musician. I studied music. I see
:24:01. > :24:14.both artful. You are opening up a whole issue of genre. Film writers
:24:15. > :24:18.will be next. With visual artists? It will come gradually. There is by
:24:19. > :24:28.version from the classical way of writing. Next time, just wait. I am
:24:29. > :24:37.worried the Nobel Julia getting down to the kids and I choosing somebody
:24:38. > :24:42.at 75 years of age. What is the final verdict?
:24:43. > :24:50.Once has definitely. I think he is a very good writer. If you read the
:24:51. > :24:55.lyrics they are not cliche. At the Nobel prize-winning novelists are
:24:56. > :25:06.poets, people don't know their work. -- some of the. They shouldn't have
:25:07. > :25:08.published those lyrics. Once they publish them, people think there is
:25:09. > :25:11.something there. We have failed to solve that
:25:12. > :25:12.question either. That's it for Dateline
:25:13. > :25:14.London for this week. You can contact the programme
:25:15. > :25:16.on Twitter @gavinesler We're back next week
:25:17. > :25:19.at the same time. Make a date with Dateline London.
:25:20. > :25:22.Goodbye.