:00:24. > :00:25.Hello and welcome to Dateline London.
:00:26. > :00:28.There simply is no escape from the world's biggest news
:00:29. > :00:33.Plus: Does the British Government really have a clue about Brexit?
:00:34. > :00:37.When will they let us into the secret?
:00:38. > :00:40.My guests today are: Amir Taheri, who is an Iranian writer,
:00:41. > :00:42.Suzanne Lynch of The Irish Times, Stephanie Baker of Bloomberg
:00:43. > :00:48.Markets, and Yasmin Alibhai Brown, who is a writer and commentator.
:00:49. > :00:56.After the delight of some, the shock of others,
:00:57. > :00:59.and the surprise of many that Donald Trump is to become president
:01:00. > :01:01.of the United States, the more prosaic struggle now
:01:02. > :01:02.is to create the Trump administration.
:01:03. > :01:06.What clues do we have about how he will govern?
:01:07. > :01:08.And how do others react around the world?
:01:09. > :01:14.First of all, in terms of clues to how he will govern and the kind of
:01:15. > :01:17.people he has appointed, it has proved divisive, despite his saying
:01:18. > :01:23.he wants to bring the country together. Yes, he has made three key
:01:24. > :01:28.appointments so far in the law and order, national security space.
:01:29. > :01:34.Those were rewarding loyalists during the campaign. Jeff Sessions
:01:35. > :01:41.is attorney journal, -- general, Mike Pompeo. They are hawks and
:01:42. > :01:47.outside the mainstream of the Republican party. The administration
:01:48. > :01:52.is shaping up to be unlike anything America has ever seen before. What
:01:53. > :01:58.you would expect from that is Mike Glennon has been a real hawk and
:01:59. > :02:04.would be expected to take a much more aggressive stance on fighting
:02:05. > :02:08.Islamic State. Which would be very popular. He has said he doesn't
:02:09. > :02:16.think Islam is a religion, he thinks it's a political movement. He will
:02:17. > :02:22.probably take a softer line on Russia. He took part in a paid
:02:23. > :02:27.speaking engagement with Russia Today last year, when he was sitting
:02:28. > :02:32.next to Vladimir Putin, so that is what you would expect there. Mike
:02:33. > :02:36.Pompeo has been a fierce critic of the Iran nuclear deal and Hillary
:02:37. > :02:41.Clinton, so I think between Mike Pompeo and Jeff Sessions, I would
:02:42. > :02:43.expect Trump will follow through on his campaign promise to pursue
:02:44. > :02:49.Hillary Clinton on a number of fronts. And Mr Sessions himself is
:02:50. > :02:53.controversial, isn't he? He is someone who will, in effect, be in
:02:54. > :02:56.charge of the federal judiciary without being able to become a
:02:57. > :03:01.federal judge in self because he was unable to be confirmed as a federal
:03:02. > :03:06.judge because of comments he made about the Ku Klux Klan and allegedly
:03:07. > :03:14.about African-Americans. There were accusations. He called civil rights
:03:15. > :03:17.groups un-American, and now he will be running the Justice Department,
:03:18. > :03:22.where he will be in charge of the civil rights apartment. More
:03:23. > :03:27.importantly, I think, on that, because his track record on that is
:03:28. > :03:31.mixed, he has been a fierce critic of immigration policy and he will
:03:32. > :03:36.oversee immigration ports in the US as well. Again, that is something
:03:37. > :03:42.that strikes a chord and which the President-elect ran on, so it will
:03:43. > :03:45.be popular. And it will follow through on what he promised on the
:03:46. > :03:49.campaign trail. Some other appointments are interesting. He
:03:50. > :03:53.seems to be talking to everybody for Secretary of State, so it is unclear
:03:54. > :03:57.who he will tap for that. He will meet with Mitt Romney this weekend.
:03:58. > :04:01.He is apparently in the running for that. How Mitt Romney would get
:04:02. > :04:05.along with the likes of Mike Glennon is a real question. Or Donald Trump,
:04:06. > :04:10.because they didn't hit it off during the campaign. It shows that
:04:11. > :04:15.given Trump alia native people and so many people were critical of him,
:04:16. > :04:17.he doesn't have a deep bench of policy experts or experience people
:04:18. > :04:23.to call in to stuff his administration. You cover the
:04:24. > :04:28.European Union, Brussels most of the time - how is it going down?
:04:29. > :04:34.President Obama did his final trip to Europe, went to Greece first and
:04:35. > :04:37.then to Berlin. I think his job, in a sense, was to reassure his
:04:38. > :04:41.European counterparts about the incoming regime. He spent quite a
:04:42. > :04:48.lot of time in Berlin with Chancellor Merkel, which shows where
:04:49. > :04:51.America sees the centre of power in Europe. A big concern for European
:04:52. > :04:56.leaders would be the commitment to Nato and the issue around Russia.
:04:57. > :05:00.Significantly, following this minisummit of EU leaders with Obama
:05:01. > :05:04.on Thursday, they issued a statement saying they would keep sanctions
:05:05. > :05:08.against Russia, which is crucial, because in January, the sanctions
:05:09. > :05:12.that the EU has against Russia are upper renewal. There is already
:05:13. > :05:17.tension with some countries wanting to pull back, some wanting them to
:05:18. > :05:21.continue. In Brussels, people will be looking at the signals from
:05:22. > :05:26.Washington. In terms of timing, it is quite easy, because Mr Trump will
:05:27. > :05:30.not be in place until the 20th of January, and at that stage, the
:05:31. > :05:32.decision will have to be taken. It is significant that Chancellor
:05:33. > :05:35.Merkel in particular said, we will keep the pressure on Russia. The
:05:36. > :05:40.Iranians deal, which we will come onto as well, that is a big issue.
:05:41. > :05:46.Europe was involved in negotiating that for years. The EU foreign
:05:47. > :05:50.ministers met this week, and again, it was significant that after the
:05:51. > :05:54.meeting they endorsed the Iranians deal, saying they would continue to
:05:55. > :06:00.back it. How will this be seen? This deal was a minefield to try to do,
:06:01. > :06:05.and in Iranians politics, it was difficult for ministers, whatever
:06:06. > :06:11.one may think of them. How will it go down if Mr Trump and his people
:06:12. > :06:15.decide to end the deal? The truth is, there was no deal, because no
:06:16. > :06:19.one has signed it. There is a UN resolution which Iran has rejected.
:06:20. > :06:26.The only thing that has happened is that President Obama individually
:06:27. > :06:29.has decided to suspend some of the sanctions against Iran. The next
:06:30. > :06:34.president could simply refused to suspend them. We would be back where
:06:35. > :06:44.we started. The Iranian nuclear problem is intact and has not been
:06:45. > :06:48.solved. In a word, they have appealed to public opinion, and it
:06:49. > :06:52.is a lie, because Iran continues its nuclear programme, not that it
:06:53. > :06:55.doesn't have the right. The sanctions are there. They have not
:06:56. > :06:59.been abolished. Some of them had been suspended will stop so, the way
:07:00. > :07:08.forward, I think, would be for President Trump and whoever else is
:07:09. > :07:14.interested in solving this problem is to force or persuade Iran to
:07:15. > :07:19.accept the seven UN resolutions officially, write to the Security
:07:20. > :07:24.Council that they accept them, and then lift the sanctions against Iran
:07:25. > :07:33.as soon as Iran has done its part of the deal. Not to leave it to the
:07:34. > :07:38.United States president. He can sign up he cannot sign. It is a mess.
:07:39. > :07:43.Iran is suffering a lot, even now, because the Iranians cannot pay the
:07:44. > :07:49.salary of their ambassador in London because they don't have access to
:07:50. > :07:57.banking. They have to bring cash to the ambassador, and here put-mac he
:07:58. > :08:02.distributes it. Everywhere it is like that. It is a disaster. It has
:08:03. > :08:09.been lying on the part of a Obama, a lie on the part of the Iranians, a
:08:10. > :08:13.lie on the part of the European Union, and this Italian lady, to say
:08:14. > :08:18.that we have a deal. But where is the deal? What do you make of it? I
:08:19. > :08:23.can't tell you how depressed I am. I don't think I remember feeling
:08:24. > :08:32.utterly hopeless. Trump doesn't understand deals anyway. He wrote a
:08:33. > :08:38.book called The Art Of The Deal. That kind of deals he does. I think
:08:39. > :08:41.one of the things he wants to achieve is to demolish anything
:08:42. > :08:49.Obama tried to do did. That has been his thing - I'm going to get rid of
:08:50. > :08:55.Obamacare. He operates like that, doesn't he? From these appointments,
:08:56. > :08:59.which I find really shocking, actually, because a part of me
:09:00. > :09:05.thought, now that he is going to be in real power, he will make real
:09:06. > :09:10.attempts to be taken as a proper statesman, but no. This tells you a
:09:11. > :09:13.lot. I mean, I don't know how African-Americans feel today about
:09:14. > :09:19.these appointments. Isn't the truth about Mr Trump that he is not
:09:20. > :09:21.particularly in command of a whole lot of details about policy, but
:09:22. > :09:27.there are some things he feels strongly about, and those things he
:09:28. > :09:32.articulates very well to the people who voted for him. He articulates
:09:33. > :09:38.them to those who are filled with rage. That's what a demagogue does,
:09:39. > :09:47.actually. He speaks to rage very well, very well. But not to policy.
:09:48. > :10:00.I would like to make a comment. We could turn him into a caricature and
:10:01. > :10:04.just dismiss him, like Obama's opponents did. When Obama became
:10:05. > :10:10.president, we had a similar discussion. One of his mentors was a
:10:11. > :10:16.communist. To attack the person before he has done anything at all.
:10:17. > :10:23.As for undoing what Obama has done, this is exactly what Obama did with
:10:24. > :10:29.President Bush. His only policy was to undo President Bush's work. Let's
:10:30. > :10:36.go beyond that. If we go beyond that, for the time being, Trump at
:10:37. > :10:44.least has the merit of forming a cabinet that looks like him. You
:10:45. > :10:50.don't have anybody opposing some of your wildest ideas. The merit is
:10:51. > :10:59.that it is not a lie. But Obama brought all these people in and then
:11:00. > :11:05.prevented them from doing anything. I think the concern in Europe...
:11:06. > :11:09.Read their memoirs and see how they were treated. A lot of people are
:11:10. > :11:12.concerned that in the first few days after the election, there is a sense
:11:13. > :11:18.of a more conciliatory Trump, tempering his language and he would
:11:19. > :11:23.not revoke Obamacare are completely. We have seen the appointments of
:11:24. > :11:26.three very senior people in justice and law enforcement, more
:11:27. > :11:30.conservative hardliners, and that is worrying people. Another issue for
:11:31. > :11:33.Trump is the potential conflict of interest between his business
:11:34. > :11:39.interests and now his role as president. There is a huge issue
:11:40. > :11:42.here is in that there are dozens of lawsuits awaiting him. Apparently he
:11:43. > :11:51.is going to settle one that is imminent. Trump University. I have
:11:52. > :11:54.done a lot of reporting on Trump's business conflict, and they are many
:11:55. > :11:59.and varied, particularly when it comes to foreign policy because he
:12:00. > :12:05.has licensing and marketing deals in a range of countries, from Turkey to
:12:06. > :12:12.the Philippines to Panama. He is going to be making foreign policy
:12:13. > :12:16.decisions with people that, you know, that could impact his business
:12:17. > :12:21.deals abroad. Likewise, the involvement of his children in the
:12:22. > :12:32.transition team is raising serious questions. If uncut Trump --
:12:33. > :12:39.Ivanka Trump was at his meeting with Shinzo Abe, the first meeting with a
:12:40. > :12:43.foreign leader. He said he would turn the business over to his
:12:44. > :12:47.children and put it in a blind trust, which it is and if it is run
:12:48. > :12:50.by your children, particularly if they are involved in helping you
:12:51. > :12:55.select the people who will run your administration. His son-in-law, it
:12:56. > :12:58.is unclear whether he will have an advisory role and whether that
:12:59. > :13:05.conflicts with anti-nepotism laws in the US. This will be an ongoing
:13:06. > :13:10.story, and the overarching question is, will the presidency ultimately
:13:11. > :13:17.enrich him and increase the power of his brand? That is the flavour of
:13:18. > :13:21.some of the coverage in America and it suggests that the honeymoon is
:13:22. > :13:27.over already for many people. You know that Trump has many enemies, as
:13:28. > :13:31.Obama did. American politics is a violent politics. They tear each
:13:32. > :13:37.other apart. We know that. What is happening now is that Trump is still
:13:38. > :13:42.a private citizen, still not the president, so his daughter Ivanka of
:13:43. > :13:48.whatever her name is can go out and see Shinzo Abe, because it is not an
:13:49. > :13:51.official meeting. She does not have security clearance and they did not
:13:52. > :13:57.involve the State Department in that. So many different questions.
:13:58. > :14:01.He is not president yet. He must be sworn in. He has access to CIA
:14:02. > :14:05.briefings, he is President-elect, which is more than a private
:14:06. > :14:12.citizen. He can have briefings and so on, but what he does does not
:14:13. > :14:16.commit the United States of America. It is a completely different issue.
:14:17. > :14:22.I am saying that I am not a fan of Trump, I am not American, and I do
:14:23. > :14:27.not care who is the American president. It is none of my
:14:28. > :14:30.business, but I am saying that the American sport of destroying all
:14:31. > :14:37.their presidents before they have started is bad for America. I don't
:14:38. > :14:42.go with this narrative. Of course, power leads to certain compromises
:14:43. > :14:46.and failures, but I find it problematic to have such a cynical
:14:47. > :14:54.view, that every single one of them was driven by the same values as
:14:55. > :14:57.Trump is. The world values followed by Republicans and Democrats. I
:14:58. > :15:03.didn't say they had the same values, I said they were all attacked and
:15:04. > :15:08.destroyed before they were sworn in. Look what they did to Clinton, to
:15:09. > :15:13.Ronald Reagan will stop you cannot say this is the normal narrative. I
:15:14. > :15:21.don't think this is the new normal, and nor should it be. Whatever the
:15:22. > :15:24.President-elect says will be taken seriously by world leaders and
:15:25. > :15:31.should be regarded as de facto policy. It doesn't just affect
:15:32. > :15:33.Americans, it affects other people, which is why there is such an issue
:15:34. > :15:38.and interest in this new president. Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May
:15:39. > :15:40.made clear this week that there is a plan for dealing
:15:41. > :15:43.with Brexit, but for now The alternative view is that this
:15:44. > :15:47.cunning plan does not actually exist and behind Mrs May's calm exterior
:15:48. > :15:50.lies a world of bureaucratic panic about what is legally
:15:51. > :16:00.as well as politically acceptable. Let's get the view from the belly of
:16:01. > :16:07.the beast, which is Brussels. It has been a bad week for Theresa May this
:16:08. > :16:10.week. First, the report in London, leak from Deloitte, saying Britain
:16:11. > :16:17.was not ready and would have to hire up to 30,000 civil servants to deal
:16:18. > :16:23.with this. So, a drop creation programme -- a job creation
:16:24. > :16:26.programme? There is no shortage of bureaucrats in Brussels, and they
:16:27. > :16:29.are ready and waiting to get going on the negotiations and they are
:16:30. > :16:33.doing so insofar as they can. They have set up a task force and they
:16:34. > :16:38.are working at the moment on that. Politically, there are some worrying
:16:39. > :16:46.signs from senior figures. The German finance minister warned that
:16:47. > :16:51.Britain would have to pay billions after Brexit, that there would be
:16:52. > :16:55.some transitional deal. Germany has been seen as an ally of Britain, so
:16:56. > :17:00.there would be worries that they are getting tough. The Dutch finance
:17:01. > :17:03.minister, head of the eurogroup, he was strong and criticised Boris
:17:04. > :17:07.Johnson, the Foreign Secretary, who this week in an interview suggested
:17:08. > :17:11.that Britain would leave the customs union and yet would still have
:17:12. > :17:14.access to the single market. The Dutch finance minister said that was
:17:15. > :17:20.intellectually impossible and politically unavailable - very
:17:21. > :17:25.strong words. There was annoyance in Italy about Boris Johnson's comments
:17:26. > :17:33.about Italy exporting press echo. One of the Italian minister said,
:17:34. > :17:37.look, it's not as simple as that. Boris Johnson maybe has a fridge
:17:38. > :17:42.from Italy to put the press echo in, or an Italian car. In terms of
:17:43. > :17:48.retaliatory measures from Europe, the whole supply chain, it's hugely
:17:49. > :17:53.complex. The other issue for Theresa May is this Supreme Court case
:17:54. > :17:55.that's coming next month which will delay Article 50. The longer Britain
:17:56. > :18:01.leave this, the more prepared Europe will be. There is a lot there,
:18:02. > :18:06.obviously, but the German finance minister is basically saying, you
:18:07. > :18:10.will pay for things, not just up until you leave, but this is like a
:18:11. > :18:13.really bad divorce where you will be paying alimony for many years and
:18:14. > :18:23.you will hate each other. That was the implication, though he didn't
:18:24. > :18:27.put it quite as strongly as that. It is such a long relationship,
:18:28. > :18:30.completely entwined. It is like separating two finds that have been
:18:31. > :18:34.going together for 40 years of whatever it is. You cannot cut them
:18:35. > :18:40.without killing one of the other, so of course, it's complicated. Again,
:18:41. > :18:45.it was the oversimplification of the task ahead, whatever decision was
:18:46. > :18:48.taken by the majority of those who voted, people weren't told how
:18:49. > :18:57.difficult it would be, of course, because that's not how politics
:18:58. > :19:04.works. And it will be hard. Amir? I am always puzzled why the British
:19:05. > :19:06.wanted to leave the EU, because I haven't heard a proper argument on
:19:07. > :19:15.that score. They talk about sovereignty, but Britain shares
:19:16. > :19:19.sovereignty in 118 international organisations, the United Nations,
:19:20. > :19:23.Nato, etc. The only countries with full sovereignty at the moment are
:19:24. > :19:34.maybe North Korea and Zimbabwe. No one else has that. There were a
:19:35. > :19:39.number of issues. Control the borders. I came here from Paris and
:19:40. > :19:42.had to share my passport twice, so you control your borders. You don't
:19:43. > :19:49.want foreigners. That is a separate issue. It has nothing to do with the
:19:50. > :19:53.EU, and even on that score, we don't want foreigners except in the NHS,
:19:54. > :19:58.which is at type of British secular religion. You cannot scrutinise it
:19:59. > :20:03.or criticise it or anything. We also don't want to get rid of foreigners
:20:04. > :20:11.in the building industry because we need houses. Also, we want
:20:12. > :20:15.mathematicians in the city and Italian bankers, chefs in our
:20:16. > :20:22.restaurants. Even the idea of not wanting foreigners is meaningless.
:20:23. > :20:26.There is a question I put to all my British friends: In what way has
:20:27. > :20:31.membership of the EU adversely affected youes none of them can
:20:32. > :20:36.answer that. I appeal to everybody to please send me their answers. We
:20:37. > :20:44.will pass on the letters that come in! Blasting is not taking Britain
:20:45. > :20:51.out of the EU but taking the EU out of Britain. There are 28,000 laws.
:20:52. > :20:55.Since last June, 68 more have been added. What are you going to do?
:20:56. > :21:03.Each of these laws have supporters inside Britain, including among
:21:04. > :21:09.those who voted to leave. A French cynic said, in politics, it's not
:21:10. > :21:12.important to make a mix take -- to make a mistake, you can correct it.
:21:13. > :21:18.The important thing is not to do something that is not necessary. And
:21:19. > :21:24.this was not necessary. Whereof we left now? We have a few minutes
:21:25. > :21:28.left. The EU itself -- where are we left now? The EU is in terrible
:21:29. > :21:35.shape. You could have Marine Le Pen is the president of France, in which
:21:36. > :21:39.case the EU could fall apart. In Italy, there is effectively a vote
:21:40. > :21:42.of no-confidence. There are issues with Eastern Europe and elsewhere.
:21:43. > :21:47.The problem with Greece has not been solved. Maybe we left the Titanic
:21:48. > :21:53.just before it hits the iceberg. We have tried to leave. If the French
:21:54. > :21:58.elections go the way that people think they might, if Marine Le Pen
:21:59. > :22:02.wins, that changes things completely because it thrusts the EU into
:22:03. > :22:07.another crisis and puts a question over whether France will have its
:22:08. > :22:11.own referendum. It is frustrating to watch. The cat might leave campaign
:22:12. > :22:14.simplify the process of leaving the EU so much that it has raised
:22:15. > :22:18.expectations within the British public. There was a study this week
:22:19. > :22:22.saying that 90% of people wanted access to the single market, yet 70%
:22:23. > :22:29.of them wanted to limit immigration. Those two things are contradictory.
:22:30. > :22:33.You can't have both. Theresa May can continue to say she doesn't want to
:22:34. > :22:38.reveal her negotiating strategy, and I understand she doesn't want to
:22:39. > :22:44.publish out wish list and had people criticise it. She can only say that
:22:45. > :22:47.for so long before people realise that she doesn't actually have one,
:22:48. > :22:51.and people are going to go after her. You will see businesses in the
:22:52. > :22:55.next few months I think, targeting the Government in a much more
:22:56. > :23:06.focused way, particularly in light of, for instance, is ideal where a
:23:07. > :23:16.company -- video that Nissan got. Other businesses will try to get
:23:17. > :23:19.that. -- the deal that Nissan got. Philip Hammond is much more
:23:20. > :23:24.conciliatory towards business and the City of London, banks and the
:23:25. > :23:28.finance industry. He is worried about the economic picture. It seems
:23:29. > :23:32.to me, from what I understand speaking to business leaders, he is
:23:33. > :23:38.much more open and has a lot more dialogue with business leaders than
:23:39. > :23:42.Boris Johnson, Liam Fox, David Davis on the other side, who are taking a
:23:43. > :23:49.much more hardline stance on Brexit. The bookmakers get things right more
:23:50. > :23:53.often than the posters, and the odds of Marine Le Pen becoming French
:23:54. > :23:57.president have shortened. We could have an upset in the French
:23:58. > :24:00.elections next year. It is one of a series of referendums and elections
:24:01. > :24:05.that are taking place right up until next September. The Austrian voters
:24:06. > :24:12.will vote on a president in two weeks, on the same day as this key
:24:13. > :24:16.constitutional referendum in Italy. Renzi has threatened to resign if it
:24:17. > :24:20.doesn't go his way. This sense of battening down the hatches and
:24:21. > :24:23.getting through this next ten months, there will be no great leap
:24:24. > :24:28.forward for European integration, no great changes. Even in Germany, the
:24:29. > :24:32.most pro-European country, there is a sense of, let's pause for the
:24:33. > :24:35.moment. They can see there is euro scepticism across Europe, so it will
:24:36. > :24:39.be about getting through these few months and then towards the end of
:24:40. > :24:42.next year, looking at how we can reform the EU, how to change it to
:24:43. > :24:48.make it more relevant. That raises another question. I spoke to Herman
:24:49. > :24:57.van romp away a few weeks ago, and he said, you have no idea how low on
:24:58. > :25:01.the list of priorities Britain is. There are 27 countries, and my
:25:02. > :25:04.country, Ireland, are obviously hugely important. They are part of a
:25:05. > :25:09.group that want to keep Britain as close as possible. In Eastern
:25:10. > :25:13.Europe, it is not as significant as Russia, for example, and the
:25:14. > :25:15.Ukrainian issue, and sanctions. Eastern European countries don't do
:25:16. > :25:20.that much trade with Britain and their priority will be free
:25:21. > :25:24.movement. Trying to reach a balance between all 27, and Germany will be
:25:25. > :25:33.crucial here in a de facto leadership role. We need to focus on
:25:34. > :25:42.the divisions in the Tory party. Anna Silbury has taken an
:25:43. > :25:51.extraordinary line... Prominent Conservative backbencher. There are
:25:52. > :25:55.lots of people who feel that Theresa May's position is not sustainable
:25:56. > :26:01.and not even real, that there is deep confusion and division, even
:26:02. > :26:04.between the three Brexiteers, who often shoot off before they know
:26:05. > :26:15.what they are talking about. The three people leading the exit.
:26:16. > :26:19.Marine Le Pen is not going to be the French president, because there are
:26:20. > :26:25.two rounds. Maybe she will be in the second round. But like her
:26:26. > :26:31.illustrious father, who ended up at 20% in the second round... We
:26:32. > :26:32.believe it there. -- we will leave it there.
:26:33. > :26:34.That's it for Dateline London for this week.
:26:35. > :26:37.You can comment on the programme on Twitter @gavinesler and you will
:26:38. > :26:40.We're back next week at the same time.
:26:41. > :26:43.Please make a date with Dateline London.