:00:22. > :00:25.Hello and welcome to Dateline London.
:00:26. > :00:35.British people are enduring the worst squeeze
:00:36. > :00:37.on living standards for 70 or perhaps 100 years.
:00:38. > :00:39.And the "tyranny of the majority" who want Brexit, according
:00:40. > :00:42.to at least one former British prime minister who suggests we could
:00:43. > :00:54.My guests today are Marc Roche of Le Point and Le Soir, Eunice Goes
:00:55. > :00:56.who is a Portuguese writer, Greg Katz of Associated Press
:00:57. > :00:58.and Steve Richards who is a British political commentator.
:00:59. > :01:01.We begin with the death of that great socialist icon
:01:02. > :01:03.and revolutionary Fidel Castro, or as his revolution
:01:04. > :01:05.decayed into corruption, should we remember him as an egotist
:01:06. > :01:14.Some people think he was more of an egotist and a Communist, frankly.
:01:15. > :01:20.How do you think he will be removed in the United States? I think there
:01:21. > :01:32.are two Fidel Castro is. There is the early man, visionary,
:01:33. > :01:38.revolutionary, he brought over 100 people in a boat. 86 of them were
:01:39. > :01:51.killed in the first 36 hours and there were 15 left. He said, we won.
:01:52. > :01:59.He won at the Bay of pigs, this was a phenomenally talented guy who
:02:00. > :02:03.stayed too long and oppressed is people for 30-40 years. I spent time
:02:04. > :02:07.there in the 90s. People were desperate to leave. They were
:02:08. > :02:13.leaving in boats. The artistic and gay communities were leaving. The
:02:14. > :02:20.Internet was spreading all over the world accept that there. I don't see
:02:21. > :02:24.him as a giant narcissist, but I see him as the hardline authoritarian
:02:25. > :02:33.leader who didn't do much over the years. People will see the footage
:02:34. > :02:40.of the glamorous life of the revolutionary, but actually, in the
:02:41. > :02:45.1990s, Cuba was an absolute mess that couldn't exist without Soviet
:02:46. > :02:52.money and it was aggressive? All those things. He stayed for two
:02:53. > :02:59.long. It's a cliche though, but his public services in Cuba were
:03:00. > :03:05.incredible. We are going to talk about falling living standards in
:03:06. > :03:13.British society in a minute, but we can't run all the services we've
:03:14. > :03:19.got. Also for all the things we witnessed, it was an extraordinary
:03:20. > :03:22.achievement to deliver those services, that health service, that
:03:23. > :03:27.quality of education that we wouldn't be able to do with the
:03:28. > :03:35.resources he had. I know he got money from the Soviet Union, but
:03:36. > :03:41.even so... The war in Angola which helped destroy apartheid it South
:03:42. > :03:45.Africa, that the exportation of Cuban doctors all over the place.
:03:46. > :03:52.You would meet them in the strangest places in Latin America, Portuguese
:03:53. > :03:57.colonies, elsewhere. The Cuban legacy in Angola is still visible.
:03:58. > :04:06.People talk about the influence of Cuba in Angola, the economic aid,
:04:07. > :04:12.the doctors, but he has been in power for so long. He was an
:04:13. > :04:17.irritant, how could the leader of a tiny island be such an irritant on
:04:18. > :04:22.the big superpower of the West, and it is quite incredible how he
:04:23. > :04:27.achieved that. Of course, he'd repressed a lot of his citizens and
:04:28. > :04:31.there was a lot of hunger and economic deprivation. But there was
:04:32. > :04:38.access to health care and a great education system too. If we look at
:04:39. > :04:45.other countries in Latin America, it wasn't the most repressive Regine.
:04:46. > :04:52.What happened in Chile, Guatemala, Argentina, during the 1970s-80s, and
:04:53. > :04:59.even after the 90s, the things were absolutely horrendous. And what
:05:00. > :05:11.Fidel Castro did in Cuba was very timid compared to what we saw with
:05:12. > :05:17.the Regine 's in Chile in the 1970s. The French love that sort of figure.
:05:18. > :05:24.He's a tree revolutionary, he wants to export the revolution. He was on
:05:25. > :05:31.the communist left. But, I think what we forget is that Cuba was hit
:05:32. > :05:36.with American sanctions which makes it obligatory for them to turn to
:05:37. > :05:45.the Soviet Union, and they've never really managed to recover from the
:05:46. > :05:52.strict sanctions. Today, the record isn't great because the only place
:05:53. > :05:56.he managed to export his revolution was Venezuelan, which has broken
:05:57. > :06:05.down and is a failed state. I think Cuba recently is turning a bit like
:06:06. > :06:10.what it was like before 1959... Because of tourism? Tourism,
:06:11. > :06:18.prostitution, people trying to survive by any means. You must have
:06:19. > :06:22.seen some of that? Even in the 90s? I had the pleasure of covering that
:06:23. > :06:25.region for a long time, Latin America. One of the problems in
:06:26. > :06:34.trying to judge Fidel Castro is that you can't point to an island that is
:06:35. > :06:43.doing well. There's no evidence of driving, up right, forward moving
:06:44. > :06:48.Caribbean islands. I would say that the education and health care in
:06:49. > :06:57.Cuba that the poor people received hasn't spread to the rest of those
:06:58. > :06:58.regions. Well let's move on to our next topic.
:06:59. > :07:01.The squeeze on living standards is biting in Britain with a decade
:07:02. > :07:05.But we have also heard about growth, consumer spending, low unemployment
:07:06. > :07:08.so how good or bad is the condition of the UK economy, and how important
:07:09. > :07:11.could all this be politically for Theresa May's government,
:07:12. > :07:13.and how do we compare with other European countries?
:07:14. > :07:20.It was very stark when you get authoritative economists, the ones
:07:21. > :07:25.people go to, who essentially state is going to continue to be very bad.
:07:26. > :07:32.I thought it was more extraordinary that we've clocked what happened in
:07:33. > :07:36.the UK this week. You've had the British Chancellor, albeit the
:07:37. > :07:43.message from this independent Office for Budget Responsibility, saying
:07:44. > :07:48.that because of Brexit, the growth forecasts is down over five years by
:07:49. > :07:57.more than 2%. The cost in terms of the economy is billions and billions
:07:58. > :08:00.of pounds. And then adding by implication, of course, we are going
:08:01. > :08:07.to try and carry on with Brexit can make the best of it. And you have
:08:08. > :08:10.this independent bodies confirming that there has been falling living
:08:11. > :08:17.standards over a decade and projecting that to continue, and
:08:18. > :08:21.putting it in the concept -- context of Brexit. So we're in an odd
:08:22. > :08:28.situation with a Chancellor who backed remain, a Prime Minister who
:08:29. > :08:32.backed Remain, albeit quietly, expressing and articulating these
:08:33. > :08:37.figures of gloom, and saying of course, now we are heading for
:08:38. > :08:43.Brexit. You could say the figures of gloom in the past, looking back at
:08:44. > :08:51.what has happened in 2008, that's one of the reason people voted for
:08:52. > :08:56.breast-fed -- Brexit. I will be looking at things as, they were very
:08:57. > :09:02.bad, we've been undercut by foreign workers. They have voted to get out
:09:03. > :09:06.of the EU? I think you've summed up what has happened in the referendum.
:09:07. > :09:15.Those were untidily understandable motives where people voted to leave.
:09:16. > :09:21.However, if I can see it, this is also heated... They did that against
:09:22. > :09:30.the advice of all the independent, authoritative bodies in the
:09:31. > :09:35.referendum, some of which had no axe to grind in this European debate. I
:09:36. > :09:39.say we are going to lose billions and billions of pounds over the next
:09:40. > :09:51.three years. Well it seems that people have had enough of experts!
:09:52. > :09:57.France's economy isn't going very well. Francois Hollande is the least
:09:58. > :10:05.pillar present I can -- popular president that I can remember. It's
:10:06. > :10:10.the financial crisis of 2008 which has made Hegglin middle classes
:10:11. > :10:21.poorer which a new phenomenon, and the rich, rich. The only way to get
:10:22. > :10:28.out of its is to tax the rich. Retrain all this manpower who are
:10:29. > :10:36.losing their jobs. Not just blue-collar, but white-collar too.
:10:37. > :10:46.In a few years' time being a taxi driver might not be unemployable
:10:47. > :10:56.jobs? I think that you need a bit of protection. It's the political and
:10:57. > :11:01.economic decisions taken after the global financial crisis and a huge
:11:02. > :11:06.turn towards austerity. So, the solution is found to deal with that
:11:07. > :11:12.has meant deficit, which is a huge comic huge problem and we can only
:11:13. > :11:18.curate with massive public spending cuts and the European and British
:11:19. > :11:24.economies are paying the price for those terrible, terrible economic
:11:25. > :11:28.choices. I have to put it to you that the Portuguese economy has paid
:11:29. > :11:37.a terrible price for being in the euro. I think the euro was a
:11:38. > :11:40.terrible, terrible idea. One of the worst ideas that European leaders
:11:41. > :11:48.have ever had. In particular, because the economic policies by
:11:49. > :11:53.which the monetary union is underpinned, they are wrong. They
:11:54. > :11:57.are for a minimal state, the small state, the states where people are
:11:58. > :12:02.not really spending, so that inflation had to be kept low. There
:12:03. > :12:13.has been too much focus in trying to control inflation... The euro has
:12:14. > :12:28.been a success! It hasn't! It has ruined southern Europe. Greece?
:12:29. > :12:34.Greece 's... Italy is a mess! No... The euro is the greatest, most
:12:35. > :12:40.marvellous project. All these patterns explain trumping your
:12:41. > :12:48.country, and leftward mu in Portugal and the rise of the rights in all
:12:49. > :12:53.kinds of manifestations. And it explains Brexit, so there is a
:12:54. > :13:00.pattern forming here. You were right to summarise how Brexit happen. But
:13:01. > :13:08.what happens now with the... What we call in? Jams. Just about managing.
:13:09. > :13:14.It was explicitly put in the context of Brexit that they would be an
:13:15. > :13:19.additional, hefty cost, because of the nightmare of navigating Brexit.
:13:20. > :13:31.So, there is that additional columns text. -- context. If we look at the
:13:32. > :13:36.Clinton years, they were good years at -- economically, but they were
:13:37. > :13:43.pretty terrible and summoned the end of the middle class in America? Job
:13:44. > :13:47.stability was lost, there was a loss in all of the things we take for
:13:48. > :13:52.granted when I grew up, but I want to get backs -- back to Brexit,
:13:53. > :13:56.you've got the Prime Minister saying it's going to be dreadful but we are
:13:57. > :14:03.still going to go through with it. At what point will they west bar,
:14:04. > :14:06.maybe we won't? Well, let's talk about the Prime Minister of Malta.
:14:07. > :14:09.The Prime Minister of Malta told us this week that the European Union
:14:10. > :14:12.is in no mood to make a cosy deal with Britain over Brexit
:14:13. > :14:15.and any agreement could be rejected by the European Parliament.
:14:16. > :14:17.Plus the former British Prime Minister John Major was quoted
:14:18. > :14:20.as pointing out that the 48% of British people who did not vote
:14:21. > :14:27.Would the result be exactly the same?
:14:28. > :14:35.People are so fed up there might be a second referendum. But it seems
:14:36. > :14:40.unlikely? I find it extremely unlikely. I think it would be
:14:41. > :14:47.explosive if the Government decided to do a second referendum. I think
:14:48. > :14:52.people would be extremely mad. What can happen however, is where the MPs
:14:53. > :14:55.support remain and the constituencies where people have
:14:56. > :15:02.voted to remain, what they can emphasise, they really need to work
:15:03. > :15:05.on is to negotiate the terms of Brexit, and perhaps what they need
:15:06. > :15:19.to emphasise is membership of the single market. Access! Accessed the
:15:20. > :15:22.single market doesn't get you very much. The City of London won't get
:15:23. > :15:28.the deal that it once the moment, and it is a massive chunk of the
:15:29. > :15:34.British economy, which generates a lot of revenue in the British
:15:35. > :15:38.Treasury. So, they are powerful lobby, and the emphasis is trying to
:15:39. > :15:42.get those passport in rights, and that won't happen without membership
:15:43. > :15:49.of the single market which means accepting Friedman
:15:50. > :15:58.# Freedom of movement. They are saying they aren't bluffing. There
:15:59. > :16:04.is a hardening of Europe. The UK basically can't make up its mind.
:16:05. > :16:09.They don't know how to do it. Every day that goes on, Europe is gaining
:16:10. > :16:14.in the negotiation, because it's saying, you had to make up your
:16:15. > :16:20.mind. You can't make up your mind, but we will go on. They wait be a
:16:21. > :16:31.second referendum. We want you out. You have made up your mind. If
:16:32. > :16:41.everyone agrees, what is keeping us in? Money! Money, because the bill,
:16:42. > :16:45.as Steve said, is always rising, it will be a big bill because we are
:16:46. > :16:54.demanding nothing and you are demanding everything. The worst is
:16:55. > :17:02.in the vacuum of power, you have this clone of your Foreign
:17:03. > :17:17.Secretary, insulting, though, at the moment, Britain, 0- Europe, one.
:17:18. > :17:24.We've had John Major making comments, the comments from Tony
:17:25. > :17:30.Blair. I think he means there's a vacuum in the Labour Party. He does,
:17:31. > :17:36.in a sense of the Labour Party position on this is as incoherent
:17:37. > :17:42.and messy, more so than the governments. But I think it's a very
:17:43. > :17:48.clear, the UK Parliament will not be the focus of discontent over this,
:17:49. > :17:54.because if you listen carefully to those who are calling for a
:17:55. > :18:00.so-called soft Brexit, they all say they will vote for the article 50
:18:01. > :18:07.that will trigger this two-year, hurtling towards exit, if it is a
:18:08. > :18:12.hurtle. The challenge for Theresa May won't be in British Parliament,
:18:13. > :18:17.but it will be in the EU. There's a slight fantasy in the British
:18:18. > :18:22.Government. Even the word negotiation is deceptive. They would
:18:23. > :18:26.be the glaciations if we were still in an threatening Brexit, but we are
:18:27. > :18:33.leaving. So the EU has to facilitate that. We haven't got many cards in
:18:34. > :18:39.the UK to play, it seems to me. I think she'll have an easier time in
:18:40. > :18:47.Parliament than many expect. What about Angus Robertson from the SNP?
:18:48. > :18:55.The most coherent force is the SNP. Disciplined, a good message in a new
:18:56. > :19:00.Labour way. Coherent on the European Union, not entirely, but they speak
:19:01. > :19:04.with one voice. They still want us to be in and they can do it with
:19:05. > :19:10.confidence because Scotland voted to stay in. In fairness, in Parliament
:19:11. > :19:14.it's harder when a lot of their voters voted out, so it's more
:19:15. > :19:18.complicated for the Labour Party, but if you look for a coherent voice
:19:19. > :19:24.on a range of issues, you would turn to the SNP, the party who don't want
:19:25. > :19:29.to be in the Westminster Parliament. That's one of the many mad things
:19:30. > :19:33.going on in British politics! Well, obviously, nothing mad is going on
:19:34. > :19:38.in America! How do you view this now? Everything is up for grabs. We
:19:39. > :19:43.don't know quite what Donald Trump will do what our relationship will
:19:44. > :19:49.be with him. It could be quite warm. He does seem to be quite an
:19:50. > :19:57.Anglophile. I heard Nigel Farage was taking over. Maybe he will be the
:19:58. > :20:02.ambassador to the new. Who knows? Drum has made things more clear in
:20:03. > :20:10.the last seven days. His cabinet choices are moving towards a very
:20:11. > :20:14.hard right. To a strong Republican, conservative position and some of
:20:15. > :20:18.the appointments are fairly radical, though he is showing his hand a good
:20:19. > :20:23.deal, but we don't know what he would do when he will come in. He
:20:24. > :20:31.certainly seems friendly towards Britain, and he is now saying kind
:20:32. > :20:35.words about Nato. I don't expect a radical shake-up of Nato. I don't
:20:36. > :20:42.expect him to go over everyone's payments in the first week. What
:20:43. > :20:46.about the Baltic? They are very nervous there about Russia, Vladimir
:20:47. > :20:52.Putin, and all that. That hasn't gone away. The old Cold War worries
:20:53. > :20:58.are still there. I'm wondering if that's made an impression on him or
:20:59. > :21:01.not yet. According to some of the major papers, he hasn't paid much
:21:02. > :21:06.attention to the intelligence briefings, and he has declined a lot
:21:07. > :21:23.of them and has left it to Mike pence. However I think he will
:21:24. > :21:28.understand the importance of the Alliance. One of the interesting
:21:29. > :21:36.things about Trump is that his victory has strengthened the resolve
:21:37. > :21:42.of Europe to protect the European project, which is bad for Britain,
:21:43. > :21:47.and it means that the EU won't be in a mood to give a deal to Britain
:21:48. > :21:52.that would jeopardise the single market. I think the deal is
:21:53. > :22:00.it is quite clear that the EU want to go with defence, political
:22:01. > :22:06.integration, at the expense of Britain. They will be no role for
:22:07. > :22:11.Britain. If I go to Paris now and read your paper, where would Brexit
:22:12. > :22:16.appear on the political radar given that you got a per -- political
:22:17. > :22:22.election coming up. I've been told by some that Brexit is quite low
:22:23. > :22:31.down. It is. We have a presidential election and such a big one, with
:22:32. > :22:41.Francois Hollande, and the candidate of the right has got a good chance
:22:42. > :22:47.of being president, he is very pro-Putin, so those issues, his
:22:48. > :22:50.attitudes to gay rights, abortions supersede Brexit and because the
:22:51. > :22:58.British have made up their mind. We will see when it starts. But the
:22:59. > :23:04.button is going to be pressed by the end of March? Theresa May says she
:23:05. > :23:08.will, and I can work on the assumption that it will be. You
:23:09. > :23:12.don't see these things as Prime Minister and find you are unable to
:23:13. > :23:17.do it, so although there is a High Court case about Parliament having a
:23:18. > :23:22.say in it, we must work on the assumption that article 50 will be
:23:23. > :23:30.triggered before March next year and Parliament will vote for it if they
:23:31. > :23:33.get the chance. I think they will negotiate a whole range of
:23:34. > :23:39.transitional arrangements, but the Lisbon Treaty states its two years,
:23:40. > :23:47.they need to be out before the 2020 general election, so I think yes. So
:23:48. > :23:52.a diminished role for Parliament in the short-term, but at some point,
:23:53. > :24:00.people in are going to see we wanted to get out but we didn't vote for
:24:01. > :24:06.this deal. It's a diminished role because they've chosen to do that.
:24:07. > :24:10.MPs are terrified to define a referendum result at this point, so
:24:11. > :24:15.that is why it's going to be easy for her with article 50. Two things
:24:16. > :24:23.might happen. This economic picture might become all wrecks it related,
:24:24. > :24:33.because people who voted for Brexit are saying they are going to be
:24:34. > :24:38.flourishing. The OBR has admitted they have done this in a foggy
:24:39. > :24:41.atmosphere, but then they have added that the uncertainty is caused by
:24:42. > :24:49.Brexit, so it is still Brexit- related. If inflation takes off in
:24:50. > :24:54.the next year because of the falling pound, and people go back to their
:24:55. > :24:58.constituencies, some people will blame Brexit and others will blame a
:24:59. > :25:01.lack of it because we have got on with it. As you say, it's the
:25:02. > :25:07.disorganisation and the failure of the Government to do that. That
:25:08. > :25:10.could produce an early general election, or even in the
:25:11. > :25:16.Conservative Party, people will take those two different views. They
:25:17. > :25:21.already do. Parliament will move centrestage at the end of this
:25:22. > :25:28.process. She will have a massive task managing that party. At the
:25:29. > :25:34.moment the focus is on the pro-European rebels on her side. I
:25:35. > :25:41.suspect the hard Brexit is will become harder to manage at the end
:25:42. > :25:48.of this. Another problem is that the technical way of getting out... That
:25:49. > :25:53.is a big challenge. And the EU in its own right are clueless because
:25:54. > :26:00.it's never been tried. It is new for everyone. No one knows how to do it.
:26:01. > :26:06.It is possible the EU could see no? It seems unlikely. I think it's
:26:07. > :26:13.unlikely that they will, to say no to Brexit... On that happy note of
:26:14. > :26:15.total confusion we will leave it there.
:26:16. > :26:17.That's it for Dateline London for this week.
:26:18. > :26:19.We're back next week at the same time.
:26:20. > :26:22.You can of course comment on the programme on Twitter @gavinesler.