:00:08. > :00:35.Hello and welcome to our year in review edition. What a year it has
:00:36. > :00:40.been. Trump was that victory, the rise of populist movements, the
:00:41. > :00:46.migrant crisis, wars across the Middle East and the possibly of a
:00:47. > :00:51.new Cold War in Europe. Our top team are a Russian writer and former
:00:52. > :00:59.Kremlin adviser, Janet Daley of the Sunday Telegraph, an Iraqi
:01:00. > :01:01.journalist and Thomas. In Britain across Europe and in the United
:01:02. > :01:06.States it has been eight Jewish year. The Brexit vote, Donald
:01:07. > :01:10.Trump's factory, political turmoil in France, and elsewhere. All have
:01:11. > :01:12.shown countries divided within themselves. Scotland,
:01:13. > :01:16.post-industrial areas of northern even though the prosperous parts of
:01:17. > :01:20.London at times appeared to regard each other as incompetence of of.
:01:21. > :01:24.Trump and Clinton voters often seem to belong not just to different
:01:25. > :01:28.states but different visions of the united states. How significant has
:01:29. > :01:33.2016 bean in terms of these major political events? The deep divisions
:01:34. > :01:38.between so-called populist movements and their critics. I mean, that has
:01:39. > :01:44.been the story of maize to the big democracies. Really big divisions.
:01:45. > :01:51.Your word, incomprehensible. Clinton's word, despicable might be
:01:52. > :01:57.more to the point. Deplorable. At irredeemable, she
:01:58. > :02:00.used. There is something in common in all these, the populist movements
:02:01. > :02:04.in Europe, and the divisions in America. And that is a sense that a
:02:05. > :02:08.huge swathes of the population, the majority in the case of the United
:02:09. > :02:13.States in electoral terms anyway, feels that they are completely left
:02:14. > :02:18.out of the discussion. They are left out of the dialogue and this is a
:02:19. > :02:21.much bigger problem than just the immediate electoral consequences.
:02:22. > :02:26.This is a post-industrial problem. The people who have been left behind
:02:27. > :02:30.by the globalisation of the economy and particularly the globalisation
:02:31. > :02:37.of Labour, which is to say nomadic tribes. Particularly young potential
:02:38. > :02:43.employment moving around the world at the BS top global interest has
:02:44. > :02:46.left indigenous populations, working-class populations feeling
:02:47. > :02:51.completely unrepresented. It is a story of 2016 but it has
:02:52. > :02:57.been in the making for decades. And we have not noticed it. For
:02:58. > :03:02.decades and more acutely in the making since the financial crisis
:03:03. > :03:07.which I shared in an era of posterity which made those left out
:03:08. > :03:20.a few even more left out. Part of the social cleavage has to do with
:03:21. > :03:26.the economy. People feel... It was called the left out millions. I came
:03:27. > :03:35.across an unsettling statistic the other day. The American CEOs in 1965
:03:36. > :03:39.as much as 20 times as much of their average employee but now it is 296
:03:40. > :03:45.times. If you look at it from a productivity point view,
:03:46. > :03:52.productivity since 48 grew by 96% and wages went up similarly. What
:03:53. > :03:58.activities and 1973 has gone up to a lot more and wages have only
:03:59. > :04:01.increased by 11%. There is a big discrepancy. Economic fortunes,
:04:02. > :04:09.which people rise up against. It is to do with the importing of
:04:10. > :04:13.cheap labour and the availability of cheap labour. I can see a political
:04:14. > :04:17.solution to that. Partly it is automation. There was a
:04:18. > :04:24.statistic also that in the US, of the jobs that were lost, four out of
:04:25. > :04:28.five were due to alternation. Rather than cheap labour. Unfortunately,
:04:29. > :04:31.very few people talk about that because nobody wants to push back
:04:32. > :04:35.against technological advances and you can understand why. This will
:04:36. > :04:40.continue to increase as long as we don't hold companies to account. And
:04:41. > :04:44.rather say, yes, we have issues to do with migration and ships, but it
:04:45. > :04:47.is to do with technological advancement and the way the economy
:04:48. > :04:51.is changing. Cheap labour and robots and the
:04:52. > :04:56.indigenous working classes of these countries have been squeezed out.
:04:57. > :05:02.We will see Uber Uber rise. The drivers may lose their jobs within a
:05:03. > :05:07.decade. They have said they are looking at
:05:08. > :05:16.automatic cars in San Francisco. I want to go back to the idea of
:05:17. > :05:21.populism. An MP was killed in the UK in broad daylight. The first time
:05:22. > :05:25.since 1990. And I think because we are based out of London the
:05:26. > :05:28.reflection about the violence towards populism, think it is a good
:05:29. > :05:32.thing that people feel that they can use elections to make their voice
:05:33. > :05:36.heard. Because if they cannot, they will resort to violent means. And I
:05:37. > :05:42.really do think this was a turning point in the case of the UK in 2016,
:05:43. > :05:47.we've had an MP killed. And the year of terrorism in various
:05:48. > :05:51.ways. In terms of populism, that is also going to be the story of next
:05:52. > :05:56.year, isn't it? I think, first of all, that this
:05:57. > :06:03.year will be remembered for the deep crisis of liberalism which came to a
:06:04. > :06:09.head. We are witnessing the crumbling of neoliberalism and all
:06:10. > :06:13.the consequences, cultural, economic, fiscal, everything. And
:06:14. > :06:17.when we talk about the economy, we've entered the stage of virtual
:06:18. > :06:21.economy. At this stage is not accepted by people. You were talking
:06:22. > :06:29.about Uber. Uber is a virtual economy company. It does not create,
:06:30. > :06:37.it destroys. The people have rebelled against the dominant role
:06:38. > :06:46.of the middleman. The middleman rules of -- rules in the virtual
:06:47. > :06:54.economy. That is why we're seeing this impact which is not gone away.
:06:55. > :06:59.It is still here. And it is clashing with this virtual economy, pushing
:07:00. > :07:05.people out of jobs. Making them basically slave labour because,
:07:06. > :07:09.let's face it, what is a zero hour contract? It is slave labour in a
:07:10. > :07:13.developed nation. I find it remarkable that some people say,
:07:14. > :07:20.well, it is a flexible way of working. It is not. It is basically
:07:21. > :07:24.the dominance of slave labour. I don't think slaves get paid
:07:25. > :07:28.normally. It is casual labour under another term. Casual labour was made
:07:29. > :07:33.illegal in effect in this country and easier or hours contract is just
:07:34. > :07:38.the reinvention of casual labour. Some talk of wage slaves, don't
:07:39. > :07:42.they? That is metaphorical. The point is,
:07:43. > :07:46.the prices of what you're describing is productive labour is the crisis
:07:47. > :07:51.of manufacturing. Manufacturing is now being done by robots, basically.
:07:52. > :07:55.And will be done more by robots in the future. There is no point in
:07:56. > :08:00.trying to hold that back. That is the future. What happens to all
:08:01. > :08:03.those people who cannot stop like the miners and car manufacturers,
:08:04. > :08:08.who can actually be taught to be computer code is in the future? This
:08:09. > :08:13.is a cultural, political, social, economic crisis. It is a slow-moving
:08:14. > :08:16.one but a crisis none the less. You touched on our political
:08:17. > :08:22.discourse on both sides of the other that has become extremely nasty.
:08:23. > :08:27.People are called names based on what they vote on, the kind of
:08:28. > :08:31.things people say about other people they disagree with is quite nasty
:08:32. > :08:35.and on the fringes of that beget various kinds of terrorism including
:08:36. > :08:44.in Germany this week. We have is cleavage. Society is
:08:45. > :08:47.falling into binary templated. Each of the accusing each other
:08:48. > :08:51.deplorable attitudes and so on, that is going to be with us for some
:08:52. > :08:56.time. I wonder whether we should call it populism. With populist
:08:57. > :09:06.uprising against the old order and comes from social inequalities.
:09:07. > :09:10.Economic equalities and Yvonne top of the -- and if governments
:09:11. > :09:12.continue with austerity, cutting back public services, you got a
:09:13. > :09:17.revolution in the making. People ask, what does the Government
:09:18. > :09:21.do for me? Absolutely. Theresa May next year
:09:22. > :09:25.has a huge problem on her hands, how to get Britain working again and how
:09:26. > :09:28.to get people to earn a living wage. A living wage that can pay your
:09:29. > :09:33.costs and your bills. That is the biggest problem. And the
:09:34. > :09:37.rising levels of youth unemployment that we now almost take granted. The
:09:38. > :09:41.fact that Spain has stumbled in trying to form a Government or have
:09:42. > :09:47.policy that actually function, has use an opponent of about 25%. This
:09:48. > :09:50.acceptance that we have these young people and they can either be all
:09:51. > :09:55.casual lovers of Lexi to or whatever, this is just disguised
:09:56. > :09:59.employment. That needs a solution because after the financial crisis,
:10:00. > :10:02.banks were seen as too big to go but not communities.
:10:03. > :10:06.Communities is a crucial work because it gives be built around a
:10:07. > :10:10.local workplace when was the local coal mine, steelworks, the local
:10:11. > :10:15.automotive plant, and it is not just the job that has lost it is the
:10:16. > :10:19.whole sense of the continuity. I was talking about the fact that we
:10:20. > :10:26.have manufacturing companies basically going down, losing markets
:10:27. > :10:31.and so on. And yet the stock stock exchange is going up. Why? Because
:10:32. > :10:36.governments pump new printed money into markets. Not into the economy.
:10:37. > :10:43.That is the virtual economy. That is what I was talking about. The
:10:44. > :10:47.governments are supporting the markets, not the economy. That is
:10:48. > :10:50.such a crucial mistake of a virtual economy and as regards the online
:10:51. > :10:54.companies, they are basically destroying the economy. They are not
:10:55. > :10:58.creating the economy. I would not say all of them.
:10:59. > :11:01.One might come these can create wealth. Just because you cannot
:11:02. > :11:07.manufacture things does not mean that you do not create wealth. You
:11:08. > :11:11.can create new kinds of transactions and communications.
:11:12. > :11:15.In this economy Britain is now 70% of a service economy. The service
:11:16. > :11:20.economy generally does not produce anything. Neither jobs, nor wealth,
:11:21. > :11:24.nor anything. That is important. It does generate
:11:25. > :11:28.wealth. We have to take into account that now you have millennial 's
:11:29. > :11:34.Radio 1 Tavern to keep the same job for 30 years. We have to accept that
:11:35. > :11:41.there are those changes but the key issue is what Thomas ways. --
:11:42. > :11:44.raised. This is about being liberated from
:11:45. > :11:46.Dougie don't have to be a core manner because your father was.
:11:47. > :11:51.There are people who want to be coal and they do not have the possibility
:11:52. > :11:55.any longer. Continuity. The barbers expecting the sun to follow them
:11:56. > :11:59.down the pits or whatever. The choices, you have to become an
:12:00. > :12:04.addict International bit of the labour force that is being flung an
:12:05. > :12:08.over the world at the behest of capital enterprises. That breakdown
:12:09. > :12:12.of community is very serious. Let's move on because the wars and
:12:13. > :12:16.divisions in Syria, Yemen and others are viewed by local resentments but
:12:17. > :12:21.also by something which is intractable. The rivalry between
:12:22. > :12:26.Saudi Arabia and other countries exerting influence. Can we say that
:12:27. > :12:31.2016 has proved to be a good year for Iran? A nuclear deal with the
:12:32. > :12:34.United States, expanding influence and the consolidation of the Assad
:12:35. > :12:39.regime in Damascus. It has been a good year for Teheran.
:12:40. > :12:49.2050 was a better year. They struck the deal then and was little heat
:12:50. > :12:57.in... With the Obama presidency ending there will be much top --
:12:58. > :13:03.tougher questions. In 2016 Orion lost at least 1000 soldiers in
:13:04. > :13:07.Syria. They are losing many in Iraq also. It is good in terms of
:13:08. > :13:13.politically, they, stronger in the region than others. Turkey had
:13:14. > :13:19.unaccounted cool on the presidency. -- and attempted coup. Domestically
:13:20. > :13:24.there are key problems because the economy is not picking up as fast as
:13:25. > :13:28.they promise people. And there are deep divisions that we will see
:13:29. > :13:34.rising in 2017 as we gear up to elections. I would say, however,
:13:35. > :13:38.that for Iran's long-term prosperity they need prosperity in their region
:13:39. > :13:41.and that has not come about this year.
:13:42. > :13:44.A good year for Putin. Almost everybody agrees. It is a
:13:45. > :13:49.good year for Putin in the sense that Hillary Clinton did not win the
:13:50. > :13:53.election. Let's put it this way. I think there is some potential in
:13:54. > :13:58.Trump working with Putin and maybe the Middle East will benefit from
:13:59. > :14:05.that. Because we had a situation that was absolutely impossible to
:14:06. > :14:09.have a proper good impact on the Middle East when America basically
:14:10. > :14:17.had a stand-off with Russia. Now, as regards putting's future, we might
:14:18. > :14:22.say this year was good for him. -- leading Putin's future. He will face
:14:23. > :14:25.enormous challenges next year because the economy is not doing
:14:26. > :14:31.well in Russia. And whatever happens in Syria, whatever happens all over
:14:32. > :14:35.the world, for Putin, the main crunch will be solving the Ukraine
:14:36. > :14:41.crisis and the economy. And the signs are not good for both.
:14:42. > :14:45.I am always shocked when I hear it has been a good year for Putin. It
:14:46. > :14:48.is been a horrific year for the people of Syria and Putin Russia
:14:49. > :14:53.would have had it in their power to do something in the United Nations
:14:54. > :14:59.Security Council to stop the bloodshed and arrange a coalition to
:15:00. > :15:03.talk about future Syria. Putin has continually blocked all efforts in
:15:04. > :15:09.New York to bring the fighting parties in Syria to feel and get to
:15:10. > :15:14.begin the negotiations. And I think that refusal to work and a positive
:15:15. > :15:19.way and constructive way for an end of is the biggest brain that I can
:15:20. > :15:23.attach to Putin. In order to safeguard his influence in the area,
:15:24. > :15:31.he sacrificed thousands of people on the alter of his big power politics
:15:32. > :15:34.and establishing a hold. I'm sure a good year for Putin is a horrible
:15:35. > :15:41.year for Syria. And Iran also is part of that.
:15:42. > :15:46.Putin has done the grand slam this year. He has become the most
:15:47. > :15:49.powerful man on the planet for the third year running. He's the chief
:15:50. > :15:53.actor in the Middle East because America simply backed away because
:15:54. > :16:00.there was no leadership from the west to give him a contest. And now
:16:01. > :16:04.he perhaps is stuck. I think he has wedged himself into a position of
:16:05. > :16:07.tremendous power in the region but in trouble at home. Still stuck with
:16:08. > :16:14.the bat that is economy is absolutely dependent on the wheel
:16:15. > :16:16.price but they're verging attentions from the problems at home with this
:16:17. > :16:21.imperial move abroad. Can I suggest one of the reasons
:16:22. > :16:25.2017 could be a good year for Putin is that the EU is an absolute
:16:26. > :16:30.disarray, isn't it? I don't think he benefits because
:16:31. > :16:35.Russia does need a strong European Union, strong Europe, for trade.
:16:36. > :16:44.Because they're Republicans coming up all the time. -- because there
:16:45. > :16:50.are problems coming up all the time. Why would Russia backed a loser? All
:16:51. > :16:54.this talk about Russia supporting right-wing movements in Europe, it
:16:55. > :17:01.has got nothing to do with the real politics of what is going on.
:17:02. > :17:05.They are supporting... They're very keen to get Turkey onside to pull
:17:06. > :17:11.Turkey away from the Nato 's beer of influence and to get a foothold. Our
:17:12. > :17:14.door one is going in the Russian direction and becoming less
:17:15. > :17:17.interested in human rights, more dictatorial, displaying into Putin's
:17:18. > :17:21.hands. Do you believe that Russian things
:17:22. > :17:26.that a Nato member would become a close friend of Moscow?
:17:27. > :17:45.They are behaving as if they do. I think it is more tactical. Erica
:17:46. > :17:56.-- Erdogan. Taking a step forward, taking a step back and confusing
:17:57. > :18:02.their allies in the region and that has been one of the issues. Iran had
:18:03. > :18:05.a better year than Arab allies because at the sport Iran there was
:18:06. > :18:10.much more policy. Talking about good and bad years I
:18:11. > :18:13.would suggest it has been a bad year for the European Union.
:18:14. > :18:21.This is what I meant to say when you are walking, about the interests of
:18:22. > :18:25.Putin. The weaknesses in Europe also stems from the unsolved problem in
:18:26. > :18:30.the middle is. Putin is causing ever more refugees to be shipped in to
:18:31. > :18:35.migrate to other parts of Europe which would increase instability in
:18:36. > :18:38.the west. It leads onto the last question as to whether or not there
:18:39. > :18:45.is a Cold War in Europe? The Westerners too weak to present a
:18:46. > :18:50.solid front that it used to have. It is struggling to compass to terms
:18:51. > :18:55.with his own crisis. 2017 will not see the end of that.
:18:56. > :19:00.The case for a Cold War. For there being some kind of new Cold War in
:19:01. > :19:03.this continent of hours, is Ukraine, which you have pointed out is a
:19:04. > :19:08.matter of great sensitivity to Russia. As you know, the Baltic
:19:09. > :19:12.nations, Sweden for example is reinforcing islands in the Baltic
:19:13. > :19:16.that they withdrew troops from 25 years ago. It is doing extraordinary
:19:17. > :19:21.things. Real sensitivities in the Baltic states as well so how do you
:19:22. > :19:27.see the relations between Putin and the west, particularly Nato?
:19:28. > :19:34.Relations will be terrible because Nato is not only close to the
:19:35. > :19:38.Borders, it is actually increasing military presence right on the
:19:39. > :19:44.border and anyone who knows the real situation in Europe would laugh at
:19:45. > :19:49.the assumption that Russia is banning to attack the Baltic Poland
:19:50. > :19:52.anybody else in Europe. Hadn't Russian generals thought
:19:53. > :19:56.aloud about the possibility of a limited nuclear award in Europe not
:19:57. > :20:01.to be unthinkable? When Nato is moving troops to the
:20:02. > :20:06.Russian border, of course there will be noise is made about nuclear
:20:07. > :20:12.weapons and so on. But the point of the matter is that the west has
:20:13. > :20:17.crossed the line in Ukraine. This was going to...
:20:18. > :20:22.The west has crossed the line? Excuse me, it has encouraged a coup,
:20:23. > :20:37.basically, in Kyoto. And suddenly we see history been divided. -- in GF.
:20:38. > :20:41.We forget what happened in Kiev. You don't have Government is being
:20:42. > :20:46.overthrown in Europe, elected governments, and then every body
:20:47. > :20:51.says, well, it is just popular uprising, when it was funded and
:20:52. > :20:54.encouraged by Western governments. I would leave that is true to
:20:55. > :20:57.determine who is behind the development in Ukraine. I am more
:20:58. > :21:01.worried about Western Europe not only being unstable because of the
:21:02. > :21:05.crises that have come but also splintering from America. The old
:21:06. > :21:13.axis of stability which meant the American nuclear...
:21:14. > :21:19.Liberalism has collapsed. Liberal governments are no longer effective.
:21:20. > :21:22.Excuse me, you can see it with Brexit, you can see it with Trump,
:21:23. > :21:27.you can see it was all these movements.
:21:28. > :21:30.The complacent liberal hegemony is what has given rise to all these
:21:31. > :21:33.right-wing populist movements. At the Liberal Government had been more
:21:34. > :21:41.attentive to their own populations and the disenchantment we would not
:21:42. > :21:46.be in this situation. We won't agree on that but with the
:21:47. > :21:50.viewers left, how has the left in Europe, in particular, but also in
:21:51. > :21:56.North America and the Philippines, why has the left been so we?
:21:57. > :22:01.I think we've moved beyond the age of ideological dichotomy. Left or
:22:02. > :22:05.right no longer seems to be... No, there are left and right.
:22:06. > :22:11.Those wings which come together on the populism level, so the left
:22:12. > :22:17.really has nowhere to go. It is the centre-left that is the
:22:18. > :22:21.problem. It is the centre-left, the Germany of the centre-left. They
:22:22. > :22:29.actually thought that the blood was over. -- the head Germany. All they
:22:30. > :22:34.were talking about, all Clinton was talking about was identity politics.
:22:35. > :22:38.Glass ceilings for women and social minorities and gay marriage and
:22:39. > :22:42.these are issues that you talk about when you got nothing else to say.
:22:43. > :22:46.And they're not relating to economic reality of most peoples lives.
:22:47. > :22:51.In addition to that there is the issue of people became much more
:22:52. > :22:56.focused on issue -based questions. Rather political allegiances.
:22:57. > :23:00.Like referendums for example. Referendums have not helped this
:23:01. > :23:03.case at all. Many people voted for trouble was that particular issue is
:23:04. > :23:08.what they cared about. Whether it was economic migration of building a
:23:09. > :23:11.wall with Mexico. That is what they voted for. To have somebody that
:23:12. > :23:18.represents the Republican Party was not a Republican says a lot.
:23:19. > :23:22.We are missing one important point. The left has mismanaged the economy
:23:23. > :23:26.for a good decade. And now we see the results of that. The economies
:23:27. > :23:31.are mismanaged in Britain and America and France and Germany,
:23:32. > :23:36.everywhere. And that is wider repercussions is that people are fed
:23:37. > :23:40.up with this. You have to run your economy properly and then you can
:23:41. > :23:43.talk about social issues, families, equal rights and so on. The left
:23:44. > :23:49.just decided to forget the economy and talk about social issues only.
:23:50. > :23:54.I think the wrong ideas about the economy. Quantitative easing is a
:23:55. > :23:59.way of solving, that was a disaster. It was a short-term disaster. It had
:24:00. > :24:05.begun in order to save us from collapse.
:24:06. > :24:10.I think we've agreed that all these crises have removed the old
:24:11. > :24:15.certainty of left and right sort of dichotomy.
:24:16. > :24:24.The left and right are distinctly different. Can I ask? Would you be
:24:25. > :24:29.glad to see the back of 2016? I'm speaking for many of our viewers who
:24:30. > :24:38.think, thank goodness. Come on, it will be better. I think
:24:39. > :24:41.it is time we forget 2016, honestly. The anniversary of the Russian
:24:42. > :24:46.Revolution. That will give you something to look forward to.
:24:47. > :24:53.The uncertainty of 2016, we need to forget it because it was dangerous.
:24:54. > :24:58.One certainty about Russia and 2016 was the discovery of cheating in the
:24:59. > :25:01.Olympic Games and Russia has had the application for the Olympic Games
:25:02. > :25:04.withdrawn. This revelation gives me a lot of comfort that the cheats of
:25:05. > :25:08.the world are being called off and called out...
:25:09. > :25:13.Russia needs to leave the Olympic movement causes corrupt and its
:25:14. > :25:18.needs to stop. Russia is a corrupt partner.
:25:19. > :25:22.All countries are on with it. We don't have the time to go through
:25:23. > :25:28.all sporting corruption. The huge uncertainty is, what is
:25:29. > :25:31.Trump really about? She has so many generals but he has appointed
:25:32. > :25:36.somebody a Secretary of State who is supposedly a great friend Putin. How
:25:37. > :25:39.is going to work? If he is going to be number two in the state 's
:25:40. > :25:43.Department is it going to be hard clock, soft cop? I don't understand
:25:44. > :25:51.the thinking behind it. You growers perfectly to next week's
:25:52. > :25:54.programme. That is it for today. You can comment on Twitter and in gauge
:25:55. > :26:01.with our guests and they will argue back, I can promise you. We will be
:26:02. > :26:12.back next time with our look ahead to the delights of 2017. Goodbye.